have a great weekend. we'll see you back here on monday. "special report" is next. donald trump is having serious problems in battleground states while ripping the media for taking him too seriously. this is "special report." good morning and welcome to washington. donald trump said he was being sarcastic, sort of, when he accused president obama and later hillary clinton for being responsible for the rise of isis. this comes as trump's people meet with republican officials increasingly worried about the nominee's poll numbers, and what that could mean for other republican candidates on the ballot.

chief political correspondent, carl cameron is with us. >> trump staffers met this afternoon with rnc staffers to talk about strategy and organization for the final 87 days of this race. at the same time, polls show hillary clinton surging in the battleground states. in florida, the latest marist poll shows clinton has pulled ahead by five points, 44. 39. in north carolina, she's ahead nine points, 48-39. in virginia, clinton's up 13, 46-33, and in colorado, trump trails by 14 points, 46-32. according to the marist polls, since the conventions, her numbers have gone up while his has flatlined. marist polls earlier in week show showed clinton surging in ohio, iowa, and pence as well. she and her husband had an adjusted income of $10.6 million and paid 35% to the irs. they donated $1,420,000 to charity. trump says he won't release his tax returns because he's being

audited. the clinton camp released a web video of republicans complaining about it. >> we'll only real know if he's the real deal or a phoney if he releases his tax returns. >> the last 30 to 40 years, every candidate for president has released their tax returns. and i think donald trump should as well. >> reporter: with the republicans increasingly rattled by trump's rhetoric and disorganization, rnc chairman reince priebus campaigned with him today in pennsylvania, while their staffers discussed ground game tactics. trump wants the party to set up headquarters in all 50 states, despite the pre-existing agreement between the rnc and trump's campaign to have half that many. rumors raced through washington this week that the rnc is so alarmed, it's considering diverting money and resources from trump to house and senate candidates. rnc officials denied it on social media last night, as did trump on "the o'reilly factor," although he sounded prepared to believe it. >> if it is true, that's okay, true, because i'll have to do is stop funding the republican party. i'm the one raising the money for them. >> after repeatedly saying he considers the president and clinton founders of isis, trump this morning tweeted that he's

been joking, quote, ratings challenged at cnn reports so seriously that i call president obama and clinton the founder of isis and mvp. they don't get sarcasm. trump's claimed for months that they created isis. >> obviously being sarcastic. then, then -- but not that sarcastic, to be honest with you. >> reporter: and the trump campaign today dismissed the release of hillary clinton and bill clinton's tax returns, saying the documents that the american people really want to see are those missing 33,000 e-mails. doug? >> carl cameron in altoona, pennsylvania tonight. thank you, carl. there are new questions tonight about whether the obama justice department is, did, or will investigate the relationship between hillary clinton's state department and the clinton foundation. correspondent rich edson has been digging into that all day. good evening, rich. >> good evening, doug. and republicans are expanding their criticism of the

clinton-led state department to the justice department. texas republican senator john cornyn is questioning why doj failed to open a case into the clinton foundation and its relationship with the state department. in a letter to attorney general loretta lynch, cornyn writes, quote, this kind of conduct is unacceptable and reflects the worst concerns harbored by the public about the abuse of government office to benefit the powerful at the expense of the american people. it violates the commitment secretary clinton made to congress and the executive branch. that pledge to separate the foundation from the state department's work. senior justice department communications officials maintain they know of no current investigation into hillary clinton, or the foundation, however, these same officials admit if other offices were looking into the clinton foundation, they may not share knowledge of their investigation. fox news reported in january, fbi officials said there was an investigation into the possible intersection of the clinton foundation and the state department. critics claim the foundation serves as a vehicle for wealthy

donors to buy influence from the state department. clinton allies have denied those claims. doug? >> and richard, i want to ask you about cheryl mills, a key clinton aide and a close confidant. we learned yesterday that she while working at the state department helped screen candidates for job openings at the clinton foundation. anything more on that? >> the clinton campaign is now defending the trip from cheryl mills. she was then secretary clinton's chief of staff. and she took it to new york to conduct high-level business for the clinton foundation. a campaign spokesperson says, essentially, that cheryl volunteered her personal time to a charitable organization, as she has no other charities, as she has two other charities. cheryl paid for her travel to new york city personally, and it was crystal clear to all involved that this had nothing to do with her official duties. . the idea that this poses a conflict of interest is absurd. the state department spokesperson confirms mills used no government money for the trip, and that spokesperson also noted that government employees can work on other projects on

their own, as long as they follow federal ethics rules. doug? >> rich edson, thank you, rich. vice presidential nominee mike pence says we need to know more about the relationship between the state department and the clinton foundation. pence is a guest this week on fox news sunday. >> do you believe that hillary clinton was involved in a pay-to-play arrangement as secretary of state? with big donors to the clinton foundation? >> well, looks that way more and more, every day, doesn't it? the new e-mails that have been made public just in the last week seem to make a direct connection, between favors done by state department officials and major foreign donors to the clinton foundation. but the american people have a right to know. >> and you can see chris wallace's exclusive interview with governor pence this weekend on fox news sunday. check your local listings. russia's u.s. defense official confirms to fox news that an american drone strike has killed the leader of isis in afghanistan and pakistan.

it happened in late july. this week marks the two-year anniversary of u.s. military action against isis. tonight, pentagon producer lucas tomlinson shows us where we are, where we have been, and where we're going. >> the defensive against isis started with two navy f-18s launching from the persian gulf, destroying an isis artillery unit. two months earlier, isis captured iraq's second largest city, mosul, after taking fallujah in january. president obama said limited air strikes and several hundred advisers could stop the isis advance on erbil and protect iraqi minorities. >> when we have the unique capabilities to help avert a massacre, then i believe the united states of america cannot turn a blind eye. >> reporter: a month later, u.s. air strikes expanded to syria. at the time, isis controlled an area the size of great britain, stretching from central syria to the outskirts of baghdad. the house gop task force this week accused the u.s. military's

central command of producing overly optimistic intelligence reports about isis and the facts suggested, raising questions about the administration's narrative of success at the time. u.s.-led coalition has conducted over 14,000 air strikes against isis. the u.s. military has flown 77 kt of missions. >> american combat troops will not be returning to fight in iraq. >> right now, there are nearly 4,000 u.s. troops in iraq and 300 in syria. 400 more will deploy soon. but some u.s. officials estimate there are nearly 6,000 on the ground when temporary assignments are factored in. three american servicemen have been killed fighting isis. 16 others wounded. after two years, iraqi forces backed by coalition air strikes have retaken nearly half of isis-held territory in iraq, including the cities of ramadi and fallujah, and 20% of its territory in syria. but isis still occupies raqqah and mosul, calling them its capitals. the outgoing u.s. commander in iraq this week said 45,000 isis

fighters have been killed in the past two years, leaving isis a diminished force, desperately pulling civilians off the streets to man check points. . >> we don't see them operating nearly as effectively as they have in the past, which makes them even easier targets for us. so, as a result, their attrition has accelerated here of late. >> reporter: despite being squeezed, isis has spread to 18 countries, according to recent intelligence reports. in the past eight months, isis has claimed credit for killing nearly 500 people outside iraq and syria. >> earlier this month, president obama authorized air strikes against isis in a fourth country, libya. u.s. special operation forces are active on the ground there. so far, there's been 41 air strikes. doug? >> lucas tomlinson at the pentagon tonight, thank you, lucas. russia's prime minister says moscow might break diplomatic relations with ukraine over the latest conflict between those two. here in the united states, obama administration officials are keeping a wary eye on a tense

situation. kevin corke is traveling with the president and reports tonight from martha's vineyard. >> reporter: predictable, purely political, and potentially catastrophic. that's how some experts are describing russia's latest move into ukraine. moscow announcing the deployment of air defense missiles to the illegally annexed region of crimea, and plan military exercises for next week, designed, they say, to simulate an attack by weapons of mass destruction. >> i think that it's obvious for everybody that the current authorities in kiev are not looking for a way to solve problems through talks, but are turning to terror. this is a very alarming thing. >> putin says his decisions are nearly counter-measures against ukraine, which he accuses of sending saboteurs into crimea to carry out terrorist acts against the kremlin. but experts accuse moscow of playing risky political games, saber rattling at a time where its country men are questioning the human cost of the conflict with ukraine. for more than 9,500 people have been killed since fighting began two years ago. >> his party is up for election,

and some of this is subterfuge, tor sure, but he wants a very decisive victory. he wants to be seen that he is in control. >> difficult relationship that we have with russia right now. but it's not going to stop us from still trying to pursue solutions. >> reporter: the unrest is just the latest political headache for the obama administration involving russia, which has sought closer ties with the kremlin in the fight against isis in syria, for example, but has maintained economic sanctions against russia for a host of disruptive behaviors around the globe. >> there is a need to have a relationship with russia and to work with russia on a range of other issues, including the conflict in syria. so figuring out, how do you balance that need to engage russia with a need to deter russia in this particular case, is a tricky balancing act. >> the vice president, joe biden, today spoke with ukrainian president poroshenko, and he asked him to do what he could to avoid escalating tensions with moscow.

now, that news, i should point out, comes on a day when we learn that the chief of staff or president vladimir putin, sergey iganov was fired from his job. doug? >> kevin corke traveling with the president in martha's vineyard. coming up, we'll take you to the dangerous and sometimes deadly streets of rio de janeiro as the olympic games continue. but first, fox 40 in sacramento, california, as a plane coming there from boston diverted to south dakota after severe turbulence. injured several passengers and crew members. nine people were taken to a hospital by ambulance. 15 others were taken by bus for evaluation. most of the passengers have since completed their journey to sacramento. fox 8 in new orleans with a state of emergency declared by louisiana governor john bell edwards. torrential storms are moving across that state, heavy rain and flooding has led to the closing of state offices in 14 parishes. and this is a live look at miami from wsvn. one of the big stories there tonight.

the number of people infected with the zika virus from mosquitos rises to 25. this comes as the cdc continues to clear new blocks from the zika sewn in wynwood. the miami-dade mayor says the mosquito population in that area has been reduced by 96%. that's tonight's live look outside the beltway from special report. we'll be right back.

the health and human services department has declared a public health emergency in puerto rico over the zika virus outbreak. the notification cites the virus' potential effect on pregnant women and children born to them. the virus has been linked to many birth defects. the olympic diving pool was closed this morning in rio. divers showed up to practice and were kept out. one diver complained of an odious smell. the water mysteriously turned green on tuesday. workers have been trying to fix that by adjusting chemical levels and an olympic spokesperson told a news conference, quote, we haven't learned that chemistry is not an exact science. the pool reopened at midday. dirty water and bad sanitation are just some of the problems at the rio games. the safety of the athletes, of fans, and workers is at risk, in ways that you are probably not hearing about, while watching it

on television. correspondent steve harrigan fills us in from brazil tonight. >> some neighborhoods in rio are so dangerous, not even soldiers are safe. seconds after taking a wrong turn into a favela or slum, a truckload of soldiers came under machine gun fire. two soldiers shot, one killed. while brazil has flooded rio with security forces, 85,000 police and soldiers, there is little sign it has slowed street crime. the perpetrators, some under age 12, target tourists with backpacks, waiting on corners distracted by their smartphones. they strike quickly, then disappear into the crowd. >> the issues which you're going to find is in the to and from, where people are going from hotels, they're taking public transit, they're taking the bus system, they're taking the subway system. that's where the opportunity is, because those areas are not going to be protected, because they're focusing on the events. >> it is not just tourists. even the least-likely targets can become victims here, like

the belgian bronze medal winner in judo, who tried to chase down an iphone thief in copacabana and was punched in the face, or brazil's head of security for the opening ceremonies, who was robbed at knifepoint while leaving the event. the nerve center to protect the olympic games and the 12 million people who live in rio is here, where the data from 6,000 cameras, 20 security agencies, even individual squad cars streams in. >> translator: here, i can integrate the cameras. if i touch on them, i can open them. it's all at my fingertips. >> reporter: the threat of terror attacks is sympathetic n something new to brazil, long considered immune to its neutral foreign policy. but the spotlight of foreign athletes has changed that. so far, athletes from at least seven countries have been robbed in rio. doug? >> steve harrigan in rio

tonight. thank you, steve. a federal judge has blocked an ohio law aimed at diverting public money from planned parenthood, because it performs abortions. the organization gets almost $1.5 million, mostly from the federal government, to support education and prevention programs. the judge says the law would do irreparable injury to the organization. ohio's republican attorney general says that he will appeal. stocks were mixed. the dow lost 37. the s&p 500 was down two. nasdaq gained 4 1/2 today. and for the week, the dow was up about 1/6 of a percentage point, s&p joined a fraction. nasdaq finished ahead one fifth. and when we come back, who do you trust when it comes to political polling? bret baier explains how to tell the good guys from the not-so-good guys.

while donald trump is trying to get enough votes to lead the

nation, there is another republican campaign going on behind the scenes, to determine who will be the next party chairman. chief washington correspondent, james rosen, has the story. >> carly fiorina isn't commenting, but multiple published reports and all observable phenomenon suggest the former gop presidential candidate has set her sights on the chairmanship of the republican national committee. fiorina has made outreach to state party chairs, and intends to campaign for down-blot candidates, all as the domain names for carly for rnc.com were already registered. >> she has been really working at it. she has an extensive travel schedule planned, campaigning for some vulnerable congressional candidates. >> as fiorina briefly runned as running mate to drooted cruz wo hardly be lost on the members of the rnc, who will vote in january to a successor of reince

priebus. other loyalists approved such form former attorney general struggled to change rnc rules, including a rule to strip the party chair. if elected, fiorina would be no more likely than her predecessors to want to cede power, but her chairmanship would almost certainly be seen as strengthening the hands of those who sought such changes and advantageous for her running mate who is probably mulling a second run in 2020. should fiorina, a former ceo at hewlett-packard, decide to seek the party chairmanship, she would be able, experts on campaign finance told fox news, to draw on the funds accumulated by at least two of the three political action committees associated with her. >> i think those leadership pacs can be used without restriction. she'll have to report it to the fec, but there's no limitation on the use of those funds, to

promote her candidacy to the rnc. >> regardless of whether carly fiorina seeks or even wins the rnc chairmanship, party insiders tell fox news there is a real hunger in the grassroots for changes to the way the rnc governs itself. but that battle will have to wait until after november. doug? >> james rosen, thank you, james. well, like it or not, political polling has become a huge part of the way the media covers elections. tonight, my colleague, bret baier, has the nuts and bolts of good polling and not so good polling and how to tell the difference. >> in the presidential race, a brand-new abc news/washington poll. >> hillary clinton is extending her lead over donald trump in several national polls. >> as you take a look at the real clear politics average of polls. >> reporter: polls are everywhere. >> our new nbc news/survey monkey online tracking poll. >> reporter: and one thing is clear. most people, especially trump supporters this year, don't like them, don't trust them, and don't think they represent the overall electorate.

>> i do think the national polls against donald trump are a little biased. >> the polls are definitely not telling the truth. >> i do not believe them. >> reporter: here's a common complaint or question. how does a poll of 800 or 1,000 people represent how the country may vote? they never poll me nor my friends. >> i use the soup analogy, which is, you don't need to drink an entire vat of soup to get a sense of the flavor, you simply need to get a representative spoonful. which if you kind of mix it up, which is the equivalent of randomizing your respondents and take a sip, you can get a good flavor of the soup >> reporter: at fox news, we have guideline of which polls we consider trustworthy and which ones we discount. we do not use online polls. >> when we talk about an online poll, we're talking about reputable organizations that seek out users online to ask them to participate in a poll. that is a survey of a kind. computers still create a technology barrier, but they

also now create an opt-in barrier, not everyone feels comfortable engaging if an online poll when a pop-up window comes up. we exclude that for now. there's another, which is basically a contest where you can direct your supporters or anyone can go online and click on a box to say who they support. that's not a poll and that has no statistical correlation to what the electorate really thinks. >> reporter: fox news polls and other polling organizations we respect, use live interviewers for the poll, not robo calls, and call both land lines and cell phones. >> some polls don't call cell phones. that's a big problem, because younger voters, for instance, are much more likely to have a cell phone than a land line. since the fox news poll uses live interviewers, calls cell phones, it's a reliable poll. and we know going back from time that the polls that call the cell phones that use ensure that each person in the population has an equal chance being selected and tend to be more accurate over the long-term. >> reporter: and what about the internals that show polls plus

6% democrats, or plus 9% democrats, even? the party's self-identification issue. >> we let the respondents decide how republican or how democrat they are. we don't control for that. that is something that shifts. you might not have felt like a republican when mitt romney was the nominee, but if you love donald trump, you might strongly identify with the republican party now. the same might go for somebody who is a hillary clinton supporter or a bernie sanders supporter. >> so as we've shown you, not all polls, not all polling organizations are created equal. so we want to tell you what we rely on. if you take the average of polls, there is about 40 organizations here. you see the blue line is hillary clinton, the red line, donald trump. these are 40 organizations conducting national polling. you can see clinton maintains a lead here, but it's not all the same. as we explained, some rely on those automated phones or internet to canvass potential voters and they can be unreliable or fail to give you a true representative sample of

the country, so let's pull those polling organizations out of our equation. then you have this. some polls are conducted by what can be called partisan groups or party affiliated or issue advocacy groups. we don't want those in our mix. so let's pull those out of the equation as well. and here's what you're left, fox news and about 22 other groups we rely on, live phone interviews from reputable media, academic, or nonpartisan groups with a large, diverse sampling. this is where we see the snapshot of the race right now. and looking at these metrics, hillary clinton has a nine-point lead. 47% to 38%. the average of polls we look at as reputable. now, this will change. this will change day-to-day. it's the fox news daily summary of the average of polls we look at. it is a snapshot in time, but it's what we look at now. >> and that is the key thing about all polls. they are tools for measuring support of a snapshot of time in an election.

>> you go back to 2008 and 2012, there were 102 statewide polls associated with the presidential election. if you took the average of polls in the week before the election, there was exactly one in this prediction. and that was in florida, where the average of polls had romney up by 0.1, and obama ended up winning by 0.2. i don't even count that as particular failure. >> if you want to know the state of the race, without seeing slingshot, bouncing up and down all over the place, just go with the primeau stuff. >> although polls at this particular time, it's more difficult to reach certain individuals than it was 20 or 30 years ago, before caller i.d. and before cell phones, the polls over the past few cycles have given us a pretty good idea of who's going to winner or lose. >> and after labor day, most organizations, including this one, will switch to polling likely voters, instead of registered voters. usually providing an even more accurate screen to find out who will likely show up on election day and vote. in washington, bret baier, fox

news. >> thank you for that, bret. on the subject of polls, hillary clinton increases her leads in the battleground state polls, while republican concerns increase over the trump effect on other races. we'll talk to the panel about

you know, the republicans do have a tougher path, just so you -- not my fault! not my fault. it's a tougher path. for the presidency, it's just a tougher, winding road. but if we win pennsylvania, we win florida, where we're doing really well, i think we can win ohio. it will be over. it will be over. it will be over. >> well, some say that is wishful thinking, especially when you look at some of the latest polls. the latest one out today, the nbc/"wall street journal"/marist poll of some key swing state

puts that all into perspective. let's take a look at it right now. florida, clinton up 5 percentage points right now. in north carolina, clinton up 9%. in virginia, clinton up 13. and in colorado, clinton up 14. let's bring in our panel now. steve hayes, senior writer for "the weekly standard," fox news media analyst and host of fox's media buzz, howard kurtz, and syndicated columnist, charles krauthammer. charles, still a lot can happen. we are 90 days out. unpredictable things, we don't know. >> let's remember, this is about the worst two or three weeks trump has had of any candidate we've seen recently. so this is the trough, i think. it's also what's left of the bounce that hillary got, from a successful convention. also, the disappearance of her main challenger, bernie sanders. so you've got a consolidation on their part. but, given the fact that we have had a crazy year, and a totally unpredictable candidate, i

wouldn't predict anything right now. but i would point out the great irony. trump's strategy has been to flood the media, the free media. and that works extremely well, when you're running in a primary against 16 other people. he got more than a half of the coverage compared to all the others. and he emerged as the winner. but it works precisely the opposite way, when you're in a two-way race, with the two most unpopular candidates in recent history. that's where the less you're on the air, the less you're the story, the more advantageous. hillary has been hiding in a cave somewhere, and as a result, it's all about trump, and he's been -- when you're on that much, when you do that many interviews, when you do that many routings, you're going to make mistakes, and that's what's been hurting him. >> david? >> trump's lost the entire rationale for his candidacy in the in the first place, which was, i'm a winner. now he can't point to most states. there are republican states like georgia and utah, which now look close. so he can't point to anywhere.

and these polls today are just disastrous. i talked to a lot of republican strategists this week, who say, from the outside, not on the inside, they say, put him in a rally, diet, put him in small groups with opinion leaders, put him in the quantas club in ohio put him in the home builder's association in north carolina and put validators out there so he can be taken seriously, so people think he has the right temperament, so people think he still cares about issues, and this isn't only some egomania thing he's doing here. he's now suggesting openly, it's okay if i lose. i can go back and have a vacation. that should worry republicans down the board and across the ballot that have to run with him. >> and also, the imprecision of donald trump's language, which can be interpreted in so many ways by so many different people. we saw a classic example of this with a conflict over isis and the founder of isis.

let's take a look at a little montage of interpretations of this. >> isis is honoring president obama. he is the founder of isis. >> i know what you meant. you meant that he created the vacuum, he lost the peace -- >> no, i meant he's the founder of isis, i do. >> i said, the founder of isis! obviously, i'm being sarcastic. then, then -- but not that sarcastic, to be honest with you. >> it kind of reminds me of the old freudian rorschach inkblot test where somebody looks at it and says that's a puppy dog and another person says, that's a pit bull with rabies. >> you've got to track twitter's feed every hour, i'm only being a little sarcastic there, was not that sarcastic. right now charles is right, he's getting most of the coverage. he's doing far few interviews, but getting most of the coverage, a lot of it hostile. republican party starting to

panic. many of the congressional candidates want to save their own skin. they didn't like him in the first place, he ran against the establishment. they're discounting the possibility in my view that he could bounce back. but this picture of disarray is starting to overshadow trump's message. >> steve? >> i think charles is right, this has been the worst two or three weeks of any candidate, really in recent memory. but looking forward, you have to ask yourself, what is it that trump has that allows him to recover? i mean, it's certainly not message discipline. you look at the other things that have traditionally mattered. and trump has shown us that not all these things will matter. you look at demographics, a huge advantage to hillary clinton, money, a huge advantage to hillary clinton, organization, get out the foot operations. she has one, a sophisticated one that she inherited largely from barack obama. he has virtually nothing and has really acted with contempt when asked why he should have one. and finally, i think, is the media. you know, charles is right, that it was 16-1 and trump was able to dominate the debate when he was competing against 16 rivals.

and that's true. and it resulted in, i think, a lot of favorable media coverage for him. but the other big difference is not just that it was 16-1 versus one on one with hillary clinton now. it's that when donald trump was beating the heck out of other republicans and conservatives, the mainstream media loved him. they egged him on. they thought this was the greatest thing they've ever seen. now that he's one on one with hillary clinton, they don't like him as much. they aren't as thisympathetic t the argument. >> and many people predicted that would be the dynamic that would happen. secretary clinton released her tax returns today. let's take a look at them. in 2015, the clintons paid an effective tax rate of 42.2% combined and a federal income tax of 34.2%. >> trump tweeted, people want to see the e-mails she deleted. he goes on and on. >> well, that's the best response you can make, since trump will not release his tax

returns. and you would expect if she's releasing them, kaine is releasing them, that the pressure would be on him. i think it's a clever way to swat it away and deflect it, but it still leaves open the question, why has trump not released them, given the fact that every candidate going back, i think, to richard nixon has released them. and this is a glaring exception. >> she's stepping on his throat here. she looked at this week and is like, i am laughing him and it's a friday, and most people are on their way to the beach and i'm going to put more pressure on him, right? this is all -- i think the clinton campaign thinks they can bury him in august, like the obama campaign will go back and say that they buried mitt romney in july. and i think they're just as aggressive over the next couple of weeks. i think you'll see more republicans that are going to be rolling out, crossing over, national security figures crossing over for clinton. i think the clintons feel like they can -- that the clinton campaign feels like they can put him away now, and i think just a tactic like this, throwing

scrutiny back on him, on tax returns. >> but as we've reported out, at the start here, things can change. and one of things which is a gift that keeps on giving to the trump campaign is this clinton foundation and e-mails associated with that, howie? >> this is becoming a major headache for the clinton campaign, after we all thought that she had dodged a legal bullet. and it's easier for the public to understand, you have this cozy culture of favor seeking and job seeking between the clinton foundation and hillary clinton's top aides a to the state department. in fairness, there's no incriminating e-mail from hillary clinton herself, but we're still getting a look at this and i think this story does have legs, even though

kelly ao in new hampshire is very vulnerable. senator pat toomey in pennsylvania is very vulnerable. senator rob portman in ohio is less vulnerable. he is doing better than others. he is still nervous about it. senator mark kirk in illinois, it's hard for anybody to see how he wins. professor larry sabato at the university of virginia of donald trump's sinking poll numbers. he offered those candidates

are done. let's bring back the panel, start us off hook at the national state by state polls on presidential level. this looks like a blood bath in the major of some race changing dynamic. looks like a blood bath at the presidential level. the story is republicans are hanging tough and being competitive despite that drag from the top of the ticket. look at marco rubio in florida. pat toomey in pennsylvania. these are places where senate candidates are running at least competitively in some cases a little bit ahead. despite the sort of downdraft from the presidential. >> kelly? >> when mitch mcconnell worries about being evicted from the majority leader's office next year. republicans have a problem. you are stating to hear major donors say i will give my money to endangered republicans governorships and not to donald trump. this assumes and i don't think we ought to fall

through the trap of assuming that polls and races don't change horrible three weeks whole campaign is not going to be this bad. the biggest problem for republicans, perhaps trying to celebrate themselves from trump and we may see more of that if the fortunes don't approve is many disillusioned republicans who aren't comfortable with donald trump may stay home. >> david? >> the problem to steve's point though is that a lot of these senate races break late. they break one way are 00 other way. so you are going to have four or five going in one direction. right now that looks like the democratic way. the other thing is you have a lot of republicans on the sideline saying cut off trump. fund the senate candidate. it doesn't work like that. he is dependent on the rnc. they are pumping money in these states. whether you have field and digital, they are working for all the candidate. you have the never trump movement out there that want to cut him off. hold hands and work as a team and that's the problem that they are facing. >> charles? >> look, i think hovering over all of this is the one ied in the road for hillary. yes, it looks today as if

she has got an open road. there is something out there, which is those emails. and the one issue that has been sort of unspoken until now and the one that we're getting hints of, which is a corrupt relationship between the foundation and her at the state department. if those emails are produced. and if they reflect the degree of involvement that we saw in that very small sample it could be catastrophic for her and that would have a ripple effect everywhere. >> second round in the lightning round. new tensions in ukraine and crimea. you contain putting troops on combat alert on the russian border after accused of sending across the border two russian soldiers died. who here is the ukraine representative to the united nations speaking about that today. >> president putin had made a statement in which he accused ukraine in making provocations along the border with crimea, which

sounds absolutely ridiculous. >> charles, you want to touch that one? >> it's completely ridiculous. it's reminiscent. hitler started world war ii by invading poland and his subterfuge was, his story was that the polls had actually attacked germany. it's completely implausible. this is putin who in the waning days of the bush administration detached two provinces from georgia. he sees weakness in the white house, a president who has -- wouldn't even give defensive weapons to ukraine. the europeans want to abolish sanctions. he has now made up with turkey. he is in a very strong position. he would expect no resistance. i think he is ready to make a move. >> it's also. also vladimir putin saw the obama administration threaten to isolate him in russia repeatedly when he went into crimea. it didn't happen and now you have the administration basically trying to hold hands with him in syria and on other issues. >> and you have 40,000 russian troops amassed along the ukraine, crimea border.

coming up next, winners and losers.

time now for this week's winners and losers. we will start with steve. >> my winner is ones. i'm expanding the week a little bit. it's the green bay packers who had nearly 67,000 people show up to lambeau field last week not for a game or even a preseason game but for a practice.

greatest chan -- franchise in sporting history. my loser is i'm not going to read the word i have written down here that punk chad the south african swimmers who taunted phelps before the butterfly only to get destroyed by that same michael phelps when they is compared off the next night in the 200 butterfly finals. he did not even medal. michael phelps took the gold. >> winner susan collins from maine. got a ton of press. whether that's a mart move or dumb move that boosted her profile. my loser is the daily beast for publishing and then deleting a story in which a reporter used dating apps to hook up with gay olympic athletes sparking a firestorm of criticism that he had endangered those from countries where gay sex is illegal. >> winners obvious, hillary clinton but not because she had good press the past week. i think she had pad press. donald trump is handing her

these weeks as they go along. the loser, i think is, reince priebus, the chairman of the rnc who i think he is damned if he does, damned if he doesn't position no matter what he does. if he gets too close to trump people mad at him. the reverse is true that probably endangers his chairmanship even if he want to continue it after the election. >> to no fault of his own. charles a minute. >> obvious winner simone biles world's greatest gymnast power of determination. loser all sports edition. a rod alex rodriguez. cut him on sunday. said he would be allow to do play the rest of the week that they went to boston and kept hip on the bench. and tonight he wanted to play the field. it's his last game ever and they turned him down. this is goodbye alex. you are a hall of famer but you cheated and you lied. >> you should have started with the loser so we could have ended on a happy note because simone truly defies gravity.

>> you won't be seeing him again. that's a happy note. >> thanks for watching special roar. i'm doug mckelway. good night from washington. t t. and back here on monday night. have a great weekend. "hannity" -- huckabee is in for hannity. and welcome to the special edition of hannity. road to the white house. hello, everyone, i'm mike huckabee and i'm in tonight for sean. with 87 days to go before the general election, republican presidential nominee donald trump is pounding the campaign trail. mr. trump has been very busy talking to voters in several key swing states, and earlier today, he held a couple of big rallies in pennsylvania. here's a look at some of the highlights. >> i spent less and won in a land slide. other people spent much, much more, three, four