quitting when things don't go their way. that's my off-the-record comment tonight. that's all for tonight. the far to starts right now. good evening, welcome to washington. i'm bret baier in for bill o'reilly. thanks for watching us tonight. let's get right to our top story. donald trump's make or break immigration speech in arizona tomorrow night. and the state of the presidential race right now. speculation is rampant over whether trump will announce a major policy shift on how to deal with illegal immigration following more than a week of hints that his stance or tone is shifting. joining us now from new york with a preview of those remarks, trump campaign manager kellyanne conway. kellyanne, thanks for being

here. >> hi, bret. thanks for having me. >> i want to start with where this race is right now. where do you see it? i hear from a lot of trump supporters who don't buy the polls. they don't think that he is trailing. even though it has gotten tighter nationally, where do you see the race now in those important battleground states? >> so, breath, like three weeks ago all the pundits and reporters were saying look at the polls, race over. he can't recover. now that the polls are tightening particularly in states like north carolina, pennsylvania, ohio, michigan, we see these tightening of these races in these swing states that they don't want to talk about the polls. they sort of want to talk about the weather and the back-to-school sales. i think that tells you something. what we see in the polls, emerson college released several battleground states. we see within the margin of error within michigan, pennsylvania and ohio. in those states which is

incredibly important we are leading hillary clinton among independents in each of those states. according to the memoer son college poll in ohio we are leading by 7 points in make or break state of ohio. we are thrilled with our message. mr. trump is still seen as outsider. disrupter. is he going it shake up washington. we like our strategy which is to take the case directly to the people. people can actually listen to his policy proposals now. they don't need to wait for these 90 minute or two hour presidential debates to know what he would do as president. he has given major speeches last two weeks on law enforcement and defeating radical terrorism and on how to help the communities of color. he has given a speech tomorrow on immigration. so, people can at least examine, i mean too often politicians do the sound bites now, specifics to be named at a date in the future. and, bret, we really like our strategy compared to hillary clinton's strategy which is she gave one speech last week and it was about donald trump. he gives speeches about the issues.

so when you look at these polls and the nun we should all watch is hillary clinton's number flat lines at 43, 45, 48, 46. she is really at 50% in none of these new swing state polls and in the morning consult poll that was released on sunday, bret, it showed her lead nationally cut from 6 points to 3 points and most startingly in the poll released on sunday she had 44% of the female votes. 44% of american women saying they are going to vote for the first female president i think hillary has a hillary problem. >> you're a pollster, do you buy this hidden trump voter that is not being picked up by the polls? you pointed to battleground states that are within the margin of error. is there a battleground state where donald trump is leading currently? >> so he is such inunconventional candidate that polling may not capture the depth and breath of the enthusiasm for his support. so there has been data. there have been projects

done under cover trump voters. even those who admit there may be abduvahiden trump voter people who usually don't democratic or don't vote at all. missed a few cycles feel exciteexcited about outsider candidacy and message. they would not be on a normal list of voters. if you are only using a list of actual voters from past elections you are missing a swath of electorate particularly in some of these swing states who may be either first-time voters or long-time no voters who want to come back into the fold. let's be frank, i don't think you will find a single hillary clinton hidden voter in the country. oh bill clinton's off. we barack obama's successor. she gets a list in the polls from those unique characteristics. yet, she can't put him away. the scarce city that is the strategy is a mistake. she should be out there campaigning and giving

policy speeches. what do voters tell the fox news polsters i want to hear about jobs and the economy and terrorism and healthcare and freezing rain structure and immigration. we are the ones taking the case right to the voters. >> i want to talk about that immigration speech coming up tomorrow. but in a sense, would you say that he is trailing closing the gap? on the move? in a sentence where you put this race right now. >> closing the gap and on the move and recognizing that some of hillary clinton's fundamental character flaws as reflected in the polls are not changing at all. you had the same numbers in some polls worse than even two months ago on terms of her likability and her trustworthiness. and, bret, it's been so long that 66% or so of americans have said they don't trust her, 60-some% say they don't like her. we are being inneuroneurod to that. people are saying i don't like you and don't trust you. they may be saying and, and

i can't see myself voting for you and i can't bring myself to go for another typical politician insider. i feel really good about are those fundamental character numbers for hillary clinton that aren't bundling. >> will there be a shift kellyanne in immigration policy from donald trump? we have heard him talk about it different ways and you have to concede that. will there be a shift tomorrow in actual policy in what he has talked about? >> you will hear consistent donald trump in this way. no amnesty, no legalization. no sanctuary cities so these parents, these angel moms and dads that we have seen on the stage with them let me give you names laura and michelle and jamiel and agnes and julie. these are people killed by illegal immigrants who should not have been here. kate steinle. no more sanctuary cities. also, we want to be fair to the american worker. a lot of folks feel they are competing with illegal immigrants as well as people abroad with these jobs now. we also to be, as he has

said, when dealing with the 11 million or so, he wants to abided law, enforce the law, which is a novel concept in washington. usually we l top of each other rather than enforcing the ones that we have. the people have committed a crime are gone. and then he wants to see what we are left with, is it 5 million or 10 million or 30 million? he will address that tonight i think you will see one of the toughest speeches on illegal immigration in modern political history and give him credit where it's due, please, bret, and your viewers. he is actually putting these policies out now long before election day so people can at least examine them and see how they match up with their own concerns. >> i have heard you say listen to the speech. you are note going to go into the 11 million and how it's going to happen. and i also heard you say he didn't talk about deportation force on the rnc speech. i want to ask you quickly about debate prep. is he preparing in a policy way to go up against hillary clinton and all that you are hearing that she is doing to prep for debates?

>> absolutely, bret. i can assure you that every day he is talking about policy, reading on policy, discussing policy with other experts. and that -- we feel like one piece of our debate prep is going out there and giving these speeches. these are his speeches. he helps to -- these are his final words. this is his campaign. he is the face of the campaign. and so when you are actually laying out your plan, you are ready for the debate. i understand, i sympathize why team clinton is cramming with binders of facts and now somebody wrote a book about donald trump a thousand years ago to consult with her. why is she so afraid of? why not debate donald trump on the issues? i will tell you why, the issues that favor donald trump the americans are dissatisfied about obamacare. they are worried about economic security. they don't like the fact that she refers to isis as our, quote, determined enemies rather than savage murderer he is. they want to talk about energy and infrastructure and education. we are out there doing that and continue to do that.

that's part of the prep. there is a loft other things that i don't discuss publicly. we feel very comfortable and excited about debate season. >> kellyanne, thank you. we will be tuning in to the speech tomorrow night. up next, reaction to our interview with kellyanne from the other side of the political fence. later, did secretary of state john kerry really said that the media should stop covering terrorist attacks? charles krauthammer will be here to analyze that. coming up. hey, need fast heartburn relief? try cool mint zantac. it releases a cooling sensation in your mouth and throat. zantac works in as little as 30 minutes. nexium can take 24 hours. try cool mint zantac. no pill relieves heartburn faster.

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in the impact segment tonight, reaction to our interview with trump campaign manager kellyanne conway joining us now. democratic strategist richard good stein. richard, thanks for being here. first on the issue of immigration and this speech tomorrow. do you sense that there is a change donald trump, a different pitch that is trying to go after moderate and independent voters? >> well, how you cannot on

one hand think that there is still not sure where they are considering literally within the past week we have heard terms like sovereigning and hardening and humane and baby steps and, look, this is signature issue. i think it's going to double down. is he going to basically say we want them all out. is he probably going to egive indicate on exactly how soon. even though what he said was immediate. now it's humane. i think this play is directly into hillary clinton's fundamental message which is that donald trump is not equipped to be commander and chief. doug jr. said today is he reaching out to people to say he is having a conversation. is that how is he going to have a conversation have sean hannity convene a town hall and say i guess we are going to bomb north korea? this is a gift to the clinton campaign. >> what about as pointed out honest and trustworthy numbers hillary clinton. today you had the new york editorial board saying she has to cut ties with the

clinton foundation because it is hurting her campaign. your thoughts? >> first of all, i think it's easier said than done. i they hope hope in some respects this campaign becomes uses the two foundations the trump foundation and the clinton foundation as a litmus test. the clinton foundation aids, relief, malaria, childhood obesity. >> we're saying they are doing good things. this is the "new york times" editorial board. >> what they don't take into account is there are people getting life saving medications out there that you can't -- look, the clinton foundation is a different model. they ever actually sending people in the field and delivering malaria and h.i.v. medication. >> let's stipulate, richard, that they are doing great things around the world. let's just stipulate that. but, the actual drip of the emails and the interaction of her work at state and the clinton foundation, that is hurting. not from fox news, from the "new york times" editorial board. >> right. and i think the "new york times" editorial board

misapprehends. they are smart people but i don't think they quite -- first of all, i think they are coming to conclusions about doug band was wearing a lot of different hats to say that every single email from him to the state department was the clinton foundation speaking to say get the head of the rockefeller foundation as if somehow or another this person was otherwise not worthy to be seated at a table with somebody important. i just think that there they're kind of missing the body. we heard from hillary clinton numerous times that she turned everything over now we hear every day clinton batch of emails. today the state department confirmed benghazi emails in the deleted emails. here is hillary clinton over the months saying what she turned over. >> we turned over everything that was work-related. every single thing. personal stuff we did not. all i can tell you is that i turned over every

work-related email in my possession. >> what we turned over were more than 30,000 emails that i assumed were already in the government system, bret, because they were sent to state.gov addresses. >> sure, but there were some that were just recently discovered and turned over. >> no. that was in the state department. not in me. i turned over everything. >> my emails are so boring. >> yeah, mine are. >> i'm embarrassed about that so we have already released, i don't know, 30,000 plus. so what's a few more? >> there are thousands more, clearly, richard, they are not personal. so that was not true. >> h well, the fact of the matter is, the justice department, the fbi looked at this, right? we don't think that they had access to everything or if they saw something that was troublesome they would. look, the way i think if you want to make emails a central component of this campaign, again, republican said about donald trump is he a racist, zeno phone

misoggist con artist. two parentheses didn't belong there. >> time out she said she turned everything over and we are getting thousands of emails tied to the clinton foundation, benghazi, they are not personal. it is not yoga and wedding planning. >> benghazi has been investigated by countless committees. >> i'm talking about the emails. you have to concede what she said there is not true. >> i don't think we know frankly. let's wait and see what people are talking about. because i think these rumors are kind of overtaking reality, okay. if you go back to some of the talk that was on various networks six or eight months ago about what was going to happen the inevitability of hillary clinton getting indicted it didn't happen. i know people are disappointed but it didn't happen. >> you see this race now five, six points in the lead? >> right. i'm convinced that donald trump listens to kellyanne conway and says how it's closing and tight and everything. and other surrogates as well. that's one of the single best assets hillary clinton has going for it that's

unconnected to reality. >> richard, we appreciate you coming in. >> my pleasure. >> next up, on the rundown, secretary john kerry says the media should stop covering terrorist attacks. charles krauthammer with some strong thoughts on that when we come right back. hey, jesse. who are you? i'm vern, the orange money retirement rabbit from voya. vern from voya? yep, vern from voya. why are you orange? that's a little weird. really? that's the weird part in this scenario? look, orange money represents the money you put away for retirement. save a little here and there, and over time, your money could multiply. see? ah, ok. so, why are you orange? funny. see how voya can help you get organized at voya.com.

in the unresolved probleunresolvedproblem segmente obama administration's handling of the terror threats. secretary of state john kerry facing backlash after remarks to reporters in bangladesh yesterday. secretary kerry saying quote if you decide one day you are going to be a terrorist and you are willing to kill yourself you can go out and kill some people. you can make some noise. perhaps some people would do as you all a service if they didn't cover it quite as

much. people wouldn't know what's going on. that statement is causing, as you might imagine, quite a bit of reaction. joining us now with his take, syndicated columnist and fox news contributor charles krauthammer. charles? >> the set look as little different than usual in the o'reilly setup. >> apparently there is no spin either. >> no spin here. >> your thoughts on secretary kerry? >> if you are living in alternate reality you want other people to come and join you. it's clear that he and his boss, the president, have this view, especially the president. he said it openly that the media, the public, exaggerates the importance of terrorism. he said once obama said if it leads it bleeds the media love it, it's good ratings. completely out of proportion to the threat of the country. it's not existential. it's not world historical. obama sees it as a geopolitical nuisance. he wants to treat it that way. the problem is that it kills

a lot of people. obama says more people die in accidents in bathtubs. bathtubs don't shout allah akbar when they kill you and they are not trying to kill you. that's the big difference. the idea if you don't cover it, if you hide it, and you pretend it doesn't happen, it will go away and you will assuage the anxieties of the people of the west is simply silly. and i think it was a ridiculous thing to say. but then again, he does travel a lot. and you get a lot of jet lag. >> let me push devil's advocate from the administration point of view. by giving it so much attention, by giving it so much credence that it is affecting the nation, then you are, in their mind, empowering these organizations that otherwise would not be as powerful. >> look, it has already changed our lives. when you go to an airport today compared to auto years

ago it is a completely different experience. every government building in washington is essentially an armed camp. there are people everywhere. we didn't have that even 30 years ago. of course it's changed our lives. we have had to adapt to it part of it is being willing to see the reality. it is true it is not at the level of pearl harbor. but that's not what we are comparing it to. we haven't had a hot war of that kind, great power against other great power in 70 years with nuclear weapons we probably never will. this is the kind of warfare that we are engaged in. and it simply destroys the confidence of the people in the leadership if you try to pretend it's not as real and deadly as it is. >> let's turn to the new york editorial board that comes out with editorial about the clinton foundation and secretary clinton's ties to it saying they have to be separated in order for her to succeed because it's

getting bad, essentially. it doesn't look good and it's not good in their words. >> look, main defense of the clintons from the beginning of this email scandal more than a year ago has always been there is no there there. there is nothing here. just walk on by. there were no classifiedion. there was nothing illegal, nothing irrelevant, et cetera. when you get the "new york times" editorial page, which is essentially your last line of defense, saying you can't use that anymore, there are other defenses you can say, perhaps we were careless. perhaps we didn't take enough -- give enough attention. perhaps we shouldn't be looking at perception as well as reality. there are other lines, defenses i think they are unconvincing. but you can't keep saying there is nothing here. and that's what this has done. when the time says your biggest supporter you know in the end they are going to be with you. they say you have to admit

there ising so not quite right about the relationship as they put it where does the clinton foundation end, state department begin. when that's a question raised by the "times," then you know there is a problem. they cannot walk away from this. and not only will this haunt them until november, this is going to haunt them into, if hillary wins, clinton administration, this is not going to be like white water. it's going to be -- it may not end the way watergate did, but this is not going to stop and it can escalate into her presidency. and it could be a cancer on her presidency. >> if she wins. you hear the surrogates say, listen, the clinton foundation does great things around the world. it shouldn't be stopped from doing those great things. that is the retort. you just heard it a few moments ago. what's left out of those responses is the tie to president clinton's speeches and to the interaction

between her time at state and the foundation itself. >> however good, the good that was done and on the scale of how much money went into it i'm not sure it compares with any of the great charities, gates foundation and rockefeller and the ones that have preceded it. however much good it did, it was a corrupt operation. it was a holding operation for clinton loyalists and it was a way for people to buy access. yes, it has not yet within shown. perhaps it won't be, that there was an actual quid pro quo which is essentially bribery. but, none the less, the selling of access is obvious and known. what scale it was? we don't know. the reason that democrats are so scared about this is because this is stuff out there, thousands of emails. and they don't know what's in it. perhaps hillary does. and she has a poker face and pretends there is nothing there. i give her credit for that kind of steely nerviness.

but, none the less, no one knows what's in there all you need are one or two gifts given in return and it could be a calamity for them. >> charles, as always, thank you. >> my pleasure. >> coming up, donald trump wasting no time to make the new anthony weiner sexting scandal a campaign issue. so is that fair play? that debate in a moment. better buckle up.

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with toothpaste or plain water.an their dentures and even though their dentures look clean, in reality they're not. if a denture were to be put under a microscope, we can see all the bacteria that still exists on the denture, and that bacteria multiplies very rapidly. that's why dentists recommend cleaning with polident everyday. polident's unique micro clean formula works in just 3 minutes, killing 99.99% of odor causing bacteria. for a cleaner, fresher, brighter denture every day. in the personal story segment tonight, is the new

anthony weiner sexting scandal fair game in the presidential campaign? weiner, of course, is currently the husband of top hillary clinton aide huma abedin. abedin announced yesterday that she is celebrating from weiner following news of his latest scandal. donald trump wasted little time jumping on this story. >> in the case of anthony weiner she is married to a guy who is uncontrolled and uncontrollable. he is a sick person and, you know, she has access to classified information. huma abedin has access to classified information. how hillary got away with that one, nobody will ever know. but, to think that it's very likely that much of this information anthony weiner would know about. >> the clinton campaign responding to the charge this way: >> to the substance of what donald trump said, it's another one of the outlandish thing this man

tosses about. and he repeated it it's the kind of thing he did this weekend when he treated incredibly insensitive tweet after a woman was shot on the streets of chicago. >> dwyane wade's cousin. >> he tries to take credit for these things. did he it after orlando. he did it after this tragedy in chicago last week. this is what he does. he thinks everything is about him, his political tunism. it shows why the man is temperamentally unfit to be president of the united states. >> joining us now with reaction from new york, juan williams, fox news political analyst and co-host of the five and here in washington, lisa booth, contributor for "the washington examiner." all right, juan, let's start with you. your thoughts on the anthony weiner remarks by donald trump and whether that's fair game. >> i don't think that's fair game. this has really everything to do with the power of damage to a family, a child involved in one of the pictures that weiner was texting. it's pretty disparaging to him and to -- damaging to his family.

it's a family falling apart, brit. i think it also has to do with the power of sexting and sending nude pictures of yourself and all of that just tawdry stuff. and for a man who has been through two divorces, donald trump, you would think that he would appreciate the turbulence that family is undergoing. does it have to do with politics? no. it doesn't have anything to do with politics. national security? i don't think anthony weiner has access to national security information coming from hillary clinton. that's where i think he went over the line and suggests, as joe did that it has to do with his own view that everything is about him, i told you so. i knew weiner, i told you about the damage in the black community and the shootings. it's all about trump. at some point i think even his most ardent supporters would say come on, donald, let's show a little personal empathy here. >> lisa? >> yeah. i think huma abedin is certainly a fair game in this election. but i think trying to tie all this together and most specifically using her divorce in it as well as a

little bit of out of bounds here, there is plenty of information for him to go after huma exclusive of the divorce. you look at the fact that she was working at the clinton foundation at the state department and also tenao which was run by the band who was the clinton foundation official all at the same time which seems to have been successful of selling access to hillary clinton. especially with the report today that of those 15,000 emails hillary clinton allegedly, all the emails that she had turned over, there is also benghazi emails on there as well which she had lied about. >> trump's point is she had access to classified material. supposedly she left it on the car seat. she has left it other places. and somehow bringing anthony weiner into it. >> i mean, yeah. potentially in the sense that huma did say that she had left classified information in the front seat of a travel car, i believe; so, yes, i believe in that sense potentially there is a tie there if we are having to do all of this

explaining it's probably not a clean political hit. if you look at the best political hits there is something where you don't have to do this tieing of the dots that we just did. the best political hits would be going after huma based on the information that we already have. the fact that information about her her emails are subpoenaed by the fbi. that she was under investigation by the fbi. that she had a hand working at the state department, the clinton foundation, and tenao. so, yes, let's explore her role in this but let's leave the out of it. >> trying to expand donald trump's base so he can win this election, you are looking at a lot of people who are first of all, consolidating republican votes but largely white, republican women who have on the fence about trump and a lot of his language and specifically about women. so for him to go after a woman at the moment of personal trouble, i don't think it's helpful. >> lisa, juan, thank you. directly ahead, what does donald trump need to say in his big speech tomorrow night to gain more support

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tonight. in the factor follow-up segment, donald trump's critical immigration speech tomorrow evening, what can he say to appeal to his hispanics and voters at large? joining us now on this issue to analyze from los angeles, juan hernandez, an advisor to the gary johnson presidential campaign and here in washington, alfonso aguilar, executive director of the latino partnership for conservative principles. gentlemen, thanks for being here. first to you, juan. what about this speech? do you expect a shift? we have seen this shift in tone. do you expect a shift in policy from the gop nominee? >> well, trump is going to say that he is presenting a more humane and just immigration plan for the united states. but he always slips back into a hateful rhetoric. he has insulted me. he has insulted my friends. he has insulted my family members and i won't even get into the insults for the handicap and for women, et

cetera. there is no way that he can win over hispanics to him. but, you know, as latinos today, it's so terrible because on the one hand we have the insults of a trump but on the other side we have the unkept promises of the democrats. we thought that -- i worked against obama. i worked for mccain on his campaign. we thought obama was really going to push imforeign relation reform and he did not. at the end of this meeting i will talk to alfonso and tell him about gary jobs and try to bring him over to my side. >> alfonso, let's hear your response. >> i appreciate juan's perspective. i'm also -- i was offended by some of the comments that mr. trump made during the primary. but, as distasteful as i find some of his comments i'm much more concerned with the policies of hillary clinton in terms of economy, a supreme court nominations. and that's why i'm supporting trump. now, on immigration yes he said some offensive things but i think that we have to look at beyond some of the

words and rhetoric he has used. i think from the very beginning he said that he was open to, you know, once the people leave the country to have those who are good people, who have no criminal record -- >> -- alfonso, alfonso. >> wait. let me finish. to let those people come back into the country. what we will see tomorrow is having trump to help those people regularize into the country. >> juan, some people call that touch back amnesty. >> and, by the way, we are not going to let any muslims into the country and, by the way, we are going to kick out 11 million people and have them trickle back in somehow and, we're going to get back on all of those jobs that the undocumented have taken away from us. alfonso, he is talking about our family members. i'm sorry, brother. i have supported you so much. how you can support this man? >> because you are jeblizing. and you don't speak for the entire latino community just like i don't speak for the entire latino community.

>> immense majority. trump has 0.05%. >> that's according to your poll. >> linoleulet me ask you a ques. do you think that trump campaign is monday mow litani thick at the way it looks at the latino issue? >> of course not. if you ask us what is the most important issue? we will probably say jobs and security and education. but, my friend, the filter is going to be immigration reform. why? because you are talking about familiar. you are talking about people who have a culture in which the family is so important. by the way, i thought that was important to this nation that i would give my life for. there is no way that it's republican. i'm republican but that i can support this man. >> can donald trump say something, alfonso, tomorrow, that helps him with the hispanic latino community? >> absolutely. this not about winning the latino vote. this is about becoming more competitive with the latino electorate in certain key battleground states he needs to win like in florida.

if he can improve his numbers in states like that, it's important to win his vote. it's important for him to get to the white house. >> juan, you are saying hillary clinton has a problem with latinos? >> yes. of course. but notice my good friend al zon zoe, he even says it in third person. he talks about these people. he talks about trump having a problem over here. why? because he can't even accept trump. now, what i would like to make very clear this is a campaign. >> you have to be practical in this election. >> there are three people today there is a hillary who has disappointed us. [talking at the same time] >> corruption. we have a trump and a gary johnson who by the way will keep his promises and will pass an immigration reform. >> gentlemen, -- when we come back a new poll shows hillary clinton losing to donald trump. is a surge in the making? we will look at that in a

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in the back of the book segment tonight, the state of the presidential race. in the real clear politics average of recent national polls, hillary clinton leads donald trump by a little more than 4%. clinton has 42.2%. trump's at 37.9%. as you see there, it's a four-way contest. johnson has under 8%. jill stein has just over 3%. so are any trends emerging as we are just 69 days until election day? joining us now to analyze from new york, phillip bump, politics writer at the wa post. and here in washington, heidi prez bella, heidi, first to you. state of the race. we heard kellyanne conway, trump campaign manager at the

beginning of this show kind of paint the picture that she sees. basically she said trailing, closing the gap, specially in battleground states. >> she's right. what we're starting to see is some of stratus furyk numbers after the democratic convention coming challenge for them is he not doing that in this point doing in the polls. as a matter of fact, it's uncertain that he will even be able to hold some of those romney states. >> so, phillip, the question is, is it more important for donald trump to consolidate republicans or to reach out to another -- more independents or more moderate democrats who are disaffected by their choice in hillary clinton? >> at this point it's much more important that he consolidate the republican base. one of the reasons that we've seen him trailing in polls

nationally and in various states is that more democrats for hillary clinton than republicans support donald trump. there are a lot of reasons for that. i think that at some point the question is can he actually consolidate them? i think that he probably still has that door open. republican voters are more regular voters than democratic voters, and so it seems likely he may be able to pull some of them back in. but it's a question mark. he's shown that he has this core base of support. the real question of the general election has been can he expand that outward. so far he hasn't been able to even in his own party. >> it comes down to battleground states, roughly ten states. while the national number could be a four or five-point lead, if you look at electoral college, that could be a big lead for hillary clinton. >> right. >> so he's got to change the dynamic. >> right. for example, you look at florida. that's a state that obama took by only one point, and there she's up four or five points on him. so there could also be a big lead in terms of the popular

vote. but his strategy from the beginning has been to kind of go through these rust belt states, and that is where the real problem is, is that even if he starts to narrow nationally the lead, in those specific states, she's got a big lead on him. like the pennsylvania poll out today shows her up eight points. so if you're just going by electoral votes, you've got to focus on, like you said, just those states. and in those states that he sees as his path to victory, she's still up on him in michigan. she's up on him in pennsylvania. and under that scenario, let's say he took ohio and florida, whereby the way she's also up on him, like i said, in florida, he still doesn't get to 270. >> i mean we should point out, phil, that trump supporters are adamant. they say there are other people that are not factored into these polls. they think the polls are off. let's just say they're off three, four points. you're still looking at a scenario where she's leading slightly. he has to change the dynamic. is the debate the first debate

the way he does that? >> so i mean it's one of the few opportunities he has left, i think, to get a big audience and actually change their minds. i think it's important to note of the ten closest states in 2012, right now hillary clinton leads in all ten of those by an average of 6 1/2 points. this is a stark picture that's being painted here. he really has to seize on these debates in order to be able to change what's happening because so far, nothing he's tried ied really worked. >> stay with us. we're going to take a short break. we're going to talk about the debates. an inside look at what hillary clinton and donald trump are doing to prep for the presidential debates. the first one, september 26th. we'll see you right here on fox moments away. there's something out there. that can be serious, even fatal to infants. it's whooping cough, and people can spread it without knowing it. understand the danger your new grandchild faces. talk to your doctor or pharmacist about a whooping cough vaccination today.

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welcome back. we continue our discussion now with "usa today's" heidi przybyla and washington post's phillip bump. let's turn now to how hillary clinton and donald trump are gearing up for the presidential

debates. this is a piece in "vanity fair" just out. trump campaign staffers has put together briefing books, washington post reports, but the candidate has hardly looked at them. suggesting that reviewing policy or conducting mock debates might jeopardize his blustery authenticity. it can be dangerous. you can sound scripted or phony. whether the billionaire is being strategicic or merely lazy, trump has rejected nearly all pretense of conventional debate prep. this trump's newly appointed campaign manager kellyanne conway insists is a deliberate strategy and one the trump campaign is proud to support. what about this, heidi? >> certainly amount of truth to that, having looked at how he performed in the primary debates. he's an agile performer. he's spontaneous. he wants her to come off as looking rehearsed and him to come off looking like he's the authentic person. but this is going to be a very different setup. as you know, he was on a very

crowded stage with a bunch of mostly other alpha males. in this case, there's a very different dynamic. he's on stage with one person, who is preparing overtime to hammer him on substance. and that is hillary clinton's goal going into this. she's going to try to bait him. she's going to try to bait him on temperament. she's going to try to bait him on substance. remember the nuclear try add? i guarantee you she's going to try to come up with something similar to that on substance to say, aha, there you go. donald trump, he's not knowledgeable about these things. he's not knowledgeable about policy. so there is also a certain risk that he's taking in not hitting those books. >> you know, kellyanne conway, phillip, says he is hitting the books and he's going to be in the coming days ahead of the first debate. but heidi's point, fox is also confirming that the hillary clinton campaign is pulling out all kinds of stops to try to needle him on a number of fronts, even having sigh kpsyc t psychiatrists look at what he reacts to. >> i think we've seen hillary

clinton before. i mean even during her convention speech, she made a comment about how he could be fairly easy to goad into things. i think that's exactly what they're thinking about. i think it's important to notice how closely this echos his campaigning, though. he won the primary by being himself, by getting this core base of support and not changing what he was doing. i know what i've been dog. i've been there and i've done this before, without recognizing once again that the audience has changed. that's why he's not doing as well in general election polling because he hasn't changed to adapt to a new electorate. and i think one of the risks they may run is him not changing his debate style to this new type of debate, which has a very, very different audience. >> but as we've seen in debates in the past, little events can change the whole trajectory of the think. if you look back to ronald reagan, there you go again. you look back to the moment when h.w. bush looked at his watch. little moments can change the whole thing. >> and that's where there's also a risk in this for hillary

clinton too is because she does come off as so overly scripted that if he gets her in a moment, or if she goes a little bit overboard and looks smug, remember the al gore eye roll? something like that can be very damaging. so we can't predict what that moment may be. but, you know, there's risks to both of the strategies. but, you know, in hillary clinton's case, i think she's betting that he's going to be more apt to do something that hurts himself rather than helps. >> quick final word, philip. >> i think that's exactly right. i think it's important to remember that the most effective attack during the republican debates, was when chris christie went after marco rubio. we'll have to see how he does this time. >> philip, heidi, thank you very much. it's interesting. the first one september 26th at hoff stra in new york.

that is it for us tonight from washington. thanks for watching the o'reilly factor. i'm bret baer in for bill o'reilly. i'll keep it fair, balanced and unafraid here in washington. please remember, as bill says, the spin stops here because we're looking out for you. breaking tonight, e-mails surfacing in hillary clinton's private server scandal that may revive controversy over one of the most troubling episodes of her entire career. the 2012 benghazi terror attacks that ended with four dead americans. good evening and welcome to "the kelly file," everyone. i'm megyn kelly. hours ago, the state department revealing new information on up to 30 e-mails that may be related to the benghazi terror attacks. they were among the nearly 15,000 messages recovered by the fbi that clinton's team appears to have tried to permanently destroy. 30,000 of them got deleted. only 15,000 were recovered. fox news is