tonight. i am bill o'reilly. please always remember that the spin stops right here because we are definitely looking out for you. breaking tonight, hillary clinton back on the campaign trail after a health scare sidelines the candidate and the political reporters are saying it could not come soon enough as a series of dramatic new polls show donald trump gaining traction across this country and in the states that matter. welcome to "the kelly file," everyone, i'm megyn kelly. we are now just 54, 54 days away from a race that -- well, ending, that not long ago seemed to be mrs. clinton for the taking. but the last week has produced the kind of headlines that has some democrats, for lack of a better term, how you say freaking out. nbc news tonight saying clinton is back on the trail and not a moment too soon for dems.

the hill sent out "polls darken for democrats" and vox said, "a brutal new batch of polls for clinton." in a few minutes, charles krauthammer will be here. first, trace gallagher is in our west coast newsroom tonight with new data from the critical battleground states. hey, trace. >> "real clear politics" has moved colorado to a toss-up. this week alone, real clear politics has moved new hampshire, michigan and colorado into the toss-up category. back on august 15th, hillary led in new hampshire by 8, michigan by 7 and colorado by 11 points. also concern for the clinton

campaign is just in the past 48 hours, rcp has trump taking the lead in the all-important battleground states of florida and ohio. both are well within the margin of error, mind you, but it's important to remember, the last time a candidate lost ohio and won the presidency was 1960. and no president has lost florida since 1992. the simple math here is that over the past month, 72 electoral college votes have moved from hillary clinton's column to the toss-up column. so as of today, the map has clinton with 200 electoral votes and donald trump with 164. here's the concern for trump. you need 270 to win. for trump to hit the magic number, he would have to win the same 24 states that mitt romney won in 2012, which is certainly not a given, and he'd also have to win ohio and florida. if you plug in all of the real clear politics averages of where

the candidates stand at this very second, even with hillary clinton's current dip in the polls, the electoral college projection map gives her 293 electoral votes to trump's 195 but the needle is moving in the right direction. >> trace, thank you. as you heard, hillary clinton holds the edge on the electoral map but the momentum seems to be with trump. my next guest says if clinton doesn't want to lose this lead, she better come roaring back and in a big way. larry sabato is joining me. when you look at new hampshire, michigan, colorado, all moving from leaning dem into a toss-up, trump taking florida and ohio, it tells me that she suffered an electoral disaster over the past 30 days. was it basket of deplorables, the health?

what was it? >> actually, i think the last week was the most damaging. most of these new polls were conducted at the time when she had said basket of deplorables and then you had the liable omission about her health problem. i think it was very damaging to her. the first part of the month was simply losing all of the convention bounce which was expected. she's deteriorated further because of the things she did last weekend. it's hurt her. i know the clinton team doesn't believe in pushing panic buttons, but i think they ought to at least test it out because if they continue to deteriorate and they are getting close to the 270 mark, they've got to be worried about that. >> falling from being above 270 and she's fallen down below dangerously close to it. >> absolutely.

look, if they don't increase the enthusiasm among the base democratic voters and also minorities and young people who, by the way, are flaking off to the third-party candidates, not criticizing the third-party k d candidates, they are coming in second. >> i want to ask you about that because we see -- a fox news poll came out and we see this often now, the two-way race and four-way race. the one between clinton and trump and the one with the two other candidates. and clinton does better, according to our fox news poll, if the other candidates are in. she does better if they are in. she's got a one-point lead over trump with the other candidates in. trump is beating her by one point. so what does that tell us? >> megyn, actually, most polls show exactly the opposite. i've become convinced that especially in the swing states,

gary johnson, believe it or not, is hurting clinton more than trump. why? because he's become a parking space for so many of those millennials who supported obama but don't like clinton. and, of course, jill stein mainly takes from clinton. she takes almost nothing from trump. >> going to make madea benjamin her secretary of state. i have to ask you this quickly. when you look at the numbers and talk about the millennials, what rule could president obama or bernie sanders play for hillary because they are unleashing him in ohio for her this week. >> surrogates help but they alone cannot pull you across the finish line. only hillary clinton can get across the finish line and she's got to show vigor. she's got to show endurance and stamina, not just on the campaign trail but in those debates coming up. >> uh-huh. she's got to fight for it.

she took august off. she was just waiting and watching trump hoping he would implode and he didn't. she's suffering. larry, great to see you. >> thanks, megyn. well, this poll surge is not only becoming a topic for the headline writers, it's also becoming an issue on the campaign trail. with both candidates today talking about what's going on. >> the polls are coming out. we're leading in so many polls, i can't tell you. i don't know where to begin. but that's a good feeling. >> i've always said that this is going to be a tight race. i've said it from the very beginning, whether i was up, down, it didn't matter. those are the kinds of presidential elections that we have in america at this point in our history. >> joining me now, dr. charles krauthammer. let me start with her comment there. up, down. the thing is, she sort of downplays the huge lead she had

over him just three weeks ago. i mean, it's not an understatement to say that many neutral, political pundits were saying he was done. >> well, remember, he has that several weeks right after the convention that were the worst of donald trump and then her campaign strategy, since she didn't really have a positive message, it's really hard to come up with an edge. i don't think that she can come up with an answer. she gave a speech today where she said i've got 38 proposals on my website. it's about the most wooden thing any candidate could say. >> right. whoever goes there. >> trump, you've seen the ads, the new ad that came out just this week, showing a leaning republican politicians saying that trump is unstable, et cetera. so it was to make him very

negative and unacceptable. that's the strategy. but what happened was he ran into a very effective -- she ran into a very effective counterstrategy from his new team, trump's new team which was warm and cuddly, kinder and gentler donald trump. so it counteracted that image. there he was in a black church, there he was speaking about compassion for illegal immigrants with a foggy message and then you've got a few days ago this enormous new entitlement for child care. here's a guy who cares about african-americans, cares are minorities, about democrats, cares about mothers. and women. so you run into that new trump at the same time that he is escalated the rhetoric about the old, the bad, the bully trump,

talking about the basket of -- >> deplorables. >> deplorables, irredeemable, anti-american extreme. and the two images are clashing and his strategy is working. hearse is not. >> trump supporters have been with him since the beginning. but to those people who rejected him because they thought he was a bully or anti-hispanic or black or women or what have you, do you think they are being persuaded that for what they saw all of those months was not real? >> i'm as puzzled as you about the phenomena. i wasn't sure it could be done but he's shown a lot of -- it was his intense tift to the gold

star parents, the idea that this guy has no empathy. the entire campaign for trump for the last few woks has been an empathy emphasis. the tone, he's not shouting. and all of that contributes to a makeover. now, do i believe it? i don't know. do other people believe it? it seems to be having some kind of an effect. maybe not that people are rallying to him but those completely opposed to him perhaps are opening their minds and given the fire she's been under on the honesty issue, on the transparency issue, they may be looking at the race through a different lens. >> let me ask you this as a psychiatrist. if i've been told that a child with two bad parents will try to idealize the least bad one, they have to have one, do you think this is a situation where the mom figure is really not being, let's say, straight with us about how long she has?

and i don't mean to say she's dying. i just mean her health has clearly been one of the issues on which she has not been totally forthcoming and so it's like, okay, i have to choose one of these people and as she starts to look worse, he necessarily starts to look better. >> i would agree with that. but without the psychiatric context but i don't play one on tv. look, i think it's rather simple. you've got two choices. it's mostly people who are voting to prevent the other from getting in. she has looked really bad with all of the new e-mail stuff, with all of the transparency issues i don't think health has anything to do with this at all and then he's been this new image and perhaps that is -- look, i think the one thing that is true, in an age of social

media, the life expectancy of a memory, of a sound bite, of an image, is very small. sound bites are small, images are small. and there's no past, no memory. so i think it turns out there's a new persona with only two months to go. that's the question that this campaign hinges on. >> good news for anthony weiner. anyway, i've got to go. thank you, charles. >> some memories are -- >> great to see you. >> okay. meantime, a defiant donald trump. tonight, he went off script and back on the attack and in just moments we'll hear from his campaign and a top hillary supporter on the new controversy catching fire. plus, congress sent a subpoena to the fbi.

jas jason chaffetz is here. and then, america's media took a stunning hit today. howie kurtz is next on how this issue is going to shape this election. >> is it fair to just say the liberal media is out there trying to make a case against donald trump? the media was front and center sunday morning playing it over and over and over when hillary clinton tripped. she faces ♪ like a human fingerprint, no two whale flukes are the same. because your needs are unique, pacific life has been delivering flexible retirement and life insurance solutions

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. last night, trump took a shot at clinton getting overheated. >> i don't know. do you think hillary will be able to stand for an hour and do this? i don't think so. then, pastor faith simmons. >> hillary failed on the economy. just like she's failed on

foreign policy. everything she touched didn't work out. nothing. now, hillary clinton -- >> mr. trump? i invited you here to thank us? >> oh, oh, okay. okay. that is good. >> well, trump responded on fox and friends by saying the pastor was nervous and shaking because she was planning on interrupting him the whole time. when hacked e-mails of colin powell showed the former secretary of state called trump a national disgrace, trump quoting ways never a fan of colin powell after his weak understanding of weapons of mass destruction in iraq. and when senator reid said trump is not slim and trim, trump said he should work out with his rubber exercise pieces,

referring to the exercise that caused him to fall and break the bones in his face last year. >> joining us now, clinton supporter and dnc committee man, robert zimmerman. good to see you. >> harry reid gives as good as he gets. let's talk about where trump is, katrina. because he's been on the straight and narrow for a few weeks and poll numbers are doing great. why start ripping on anderson cooper? who is a solid supporter? >> there are 15 that expect donald trump to be a robotic politician. that is not who he is. you know he was asked to respond to colin powell's comments, and he did. what you're seeing here today is

m trump is going to be mr. trump. he will respond when he feels like it. it's unfortunate mr. trump wants to focus on his policy, something everyone has been saying they want to hear. we keep hearing these diversionary tactics. >> before i move on to robert, what about the barack obama being born here? this is what his campaign manager said about that issue. this is what they said, watch. >> he believes president obama wasn't born here. he was born in hawaii. >> donald trump believes he was born in the uchlts but that issue is raised -- >> that is originally -- >> we believe it. >> he does. >> why won't he say it?

>> he has said he does not talk about that anymore. barack obama is not on the ballot. no and this is going to fly, megyn. chip is irrelevant to the election cycle. >> you have people in this country, african americans feel that was a racist position. i'm taking no position on this, i'm relaying what they said. his campaign manager said he hasn't shifted his belief on this and refuses to confirm that. why? >> you have a poll that shows mr. trump is pushing on 30% african american support and hillary clinton insulted half of the country. mr. trump has said he's not going to talk about it. i have given you the answer. do you know want to know why?

>> there is a key baked into it. robert? what do you think? >> the media is not going to force mr. trump to say anything he's not ready to say. >> what about the position being a birther? >> that came out in 2008. >> right now we have you. go ahead, robert. >> let's be clear. it's not about asking donald trump to have honor and decency and have respect for the truth. >> respect for the truth? you support hillary clinton. >> i beg your pardon on? >> you're talking about respecting the truth and you're supporting hillary clinton and the american people think she is not truthful. >> megyn, you're dodging the issue. we're talking about the fact that donald trump will not discuss. >> you're in a glass house. we're talking about truth. >> you're talking about truth and talking about donald trump refuses to recognize president obama is an american citizen. it's disgraceful and racist and

it's dishonest. for that matter, pastor timmons defended him when being heckled. and he backed down and did what he was told. >> he was very respectful. very respectful. >> then, when he left the church, on fox and friends this morning he lied about her. he called her a nervous mess. like a typical bully. when confronted he backed down. on his own, he went out there and tried to antigonize. >> that is not racist, george. you weren't there. this is an observation. >> the media covered it. >> so it must be true, right? >> you know donald trump -- >> let me just tell the audience. he said she was no nervous, she

was a nervous mess, so i figured something was up. really. >> the fact of the matter is -- >> how is that an attack? >> because pastor timmons defended him in church when heckled. >> he couldn't be nervous? >> then, when he left, he just inspired to malign here. her is the bigger point, today, donald trump junior tried to minimize the holocaust, unspeakable loss of 6 million lives by comparing it to a bad day in the campaign trail. >> i don't know about that. >> megyn? >> george watson die verge ready from other things like hillary clinton. >> first of all -- >> and secondly -- >> we're talking about showing respect. >> you brought up junior. i want to aaddress that. >> he talks about the gas chamber because it's a form of

capital punishment right here in the united states as recently as 2010. last week he brought up the electric chair. donald trump saying they'd be warming up the gas chamber if trump had said, making a comment, my dad would be warming up the gas chamber. and you had antidefamation league say that is inappropriate. you don't make references to the holocaust. he said it was a reference to capital punishment. we're going to leave it at that. great debate. great to see you both. phew. i do work out. i say i don't have time. i have kids, that is all i do. this is like a workout.

anyway, new drama in hillary clinton e-mail scandal. a powerful chairman of the house oversight committee. a subpoena to the fbi now. now, is threatening the guy who set up hillary clinton's server. showdown at the house. and the american media took a huge hit today, what it means for the 2016 race, next. >> i have really good news for you. i just heard that the press is stuck on owe their airplane. they can't get here. i love it.

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54 days to go and it's conservatives driving the drop with more than half of democrats but only one in ten republicans expressing trust. and who's proud of the plummet? the republican nominee, donald trump. listen. >> i think i had a lot to do because i've exposed the media. i am very proud to say that i think i had a lot to do with

that poll number. >> not showing a ton of regard to the media. >> i have heard that the press is stuck on their airplane and can't get here. i love it. so they are trying to get here now. they will be about 30 minutes late. they called us and said could you wait and i said absolutely not. let's get going. let's get going, new hampshire. >> joining me now, two journalists that have followed the media, howard kurtz and noah rothman, assistant online editor of online magazine. good to see you both. the problem is, without the press, he doesn't get as much coverage. they are not there to hear what he has to say. howie, what did youean from these results? >> you know, i talked to donald trump tonight about this very point and he portrays it that

the media has been so relentlessly dishonest about him, in his view, that he's had no choice but to push back. at the same time, hillary clinton is sending out fundraising letters saying there's media bias against her. no wonder this is part of the reason that confidence is dropping. >> do we know why faith in the media has dropped among conservatives? i think it's because trump has criticized the media relentlessly. there are a lot of conservatives who fell that the media fell down on the job in vetting trump. >> precisely. that has a lot to do with it. that number bottomed out among republicans. last year it was in the 30s, somewhere in the low 30s. this is -- very few republicans have any faith in the press and it has a lot to do with, a, donald trump saying that the media people are horrible by their own terms and press rallies but also for republicans who didn't vote for donald trump who got a lot of unfiltered

coverage. so, yeah, on both sides of that aisle, there is no faith in the press. >> howie, you look at the lowest point in 44 years, or in gallup polling history, the faith in the media. how does that play into this election? >> well, first of all, i have to say, if you look at those numbers, you have to sell it. that's how bad those numbers are. and it's a result over the years of self-inflicted wounds, bias, blunders, sensationalism, so a lot of it is on us. it plays into the campaign because when we try to fact check the candidates, people don't believe us. when we try to report object the candidates, they think they are not getting the straight scoop from us. although i have to say we can take most of the blame, a lot of partisan folks don't have any interest. they want us to either back their candidate or trash the other candidate or both. so it's hard to please

everybody. >> but then you have this woman on msnbc who thinks that -- can we play that thought? it was bias for the media to show her falling down. how did she put it? she stumbled and the media kept playing it over and over. it was like the woman passed out. she did not appear conscious. what was she supposed to do? ignore it? >> and that's what is absurd about the situation. she shunned the press. she kept the media press away. she was in an enclosed space so they couldn't cover her. if you have press pool on her, you might have had something that was a little more explanatory. they would have had to have come up with something that was a heat stroke, pneumonia, chronic dehydration. this is all of the simulation because they kept the press at arm's length. they have nobody else to blame but themselves. >> and for keeping us in the

dark, of course we wonder and we're going to cover that. the woman wants to be president. we don't know whether she's all right. good to see you both. >> good to see you. >> do we know that? they say we do. also tonight, trump goes on jimmy fallon's show and what happens next may win him a lot of new fans. we'll show you. plus, jason chaffetz is here next and what he expects after he did this. >> i've signed this sm

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>> who you served a subpoena to receive and he blew you off. >> he sent him a second subpoena

and he blew that off. you have to comply with them. >> why won't you want to appear before you? >> i don't know. that is why you give people an opportunity. we can investigate anything at any time. it's how we go checks and balances in this country. why we have power to compel people to come before congress. but, you've got to provide that opportunity. and i expect them to show up. >> they say, the democrats say you are trying to harass him and humiliate him. that is what his lawyer said, too. this is only a political show. you're trying to drag this guy before you. >> no. we have a constitutional duty to provide oversite. classified information that can get people killed. of course we're going to talk to the person who tried to destroy documents under subpoena. >> i want to get to julie in

just a moment here. >> welcome. before we get to you, i want to ask you whether this is going anywhere, right? you're trying to talk to the fbi and she's not go being to be indicted. >> people to remember when the director came before the committee, he said he looked at nothing that hillary clinton said under oath and it looked at all of the things congress asked for that haven't been -- >> you say what? >> he's right to make hey out of a political issue. the purpose is to drag him up to the hill. make him a race, once again, say

someone in hillary clinton's office and you get applauded and we'll go on with our lives. look, it's obvious that this person is not going to testify. you know it. and so the person who pays taxes in this country says we're wasting taxpayer money. >> you don't know they're going to do that until they actually get there. he also has immunity. >> in all circumstances? >> i wanted -- that is what we need to ask these witnesses. if you get into that game, just saying you can just blow off to congress, nobody is going to -- >> is this hurting her?

>> she has a horrible health incident and let's see what happens. i will say if you heard from his lawyer tomorrow, that he's going to vote the fifth amendment rights. >> he needs to come and testify. >> we'll have to leave it at that. >> great to see you. up next, donald trump on jimmy fallon, and we have a clip. upgrade your phone system and learn how you could save at vonage.com/business

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. new questions tonight as hillary clinton returns to the campaign trail, days after a health scare at the 9/11 memorial service on sunday. a video showed mrs. clinton leaving the event early and appearing to collapse as getting into a van. hours later she emerged from daughter's apartment looking better. >> how are you feeling, secretary clinton? >> great, great. >> can you talk to us for a second, give us a statement. >> it is a beautiful day in new york. >> now some are pointing to pictures of hillary leaving the event and then hours later leaving chelsea's apartment saying that woman on the right was not hillary clinton at all. it was a body double.

brian kill immediameade is host and friends. i could not believe how much circulation this got. >> it is unbelievable. to back everybody away from it, you'll have me do it. let's go to what we saw a moment ago with circles that used to be around football players and quarterback. the conspiracy theorists are saying this one woman has a different body composition, one is slimmer than the other, one has more wrinkle willed skin than the other. one has higher cheek bones than the other. there's one shot with her standing and her feet are kind of out, kind of like ronald mcdonald. >> pointed out. >> they say hillary clinton never stands like that. the best theory is there's no secret service. secret service as we know cannot guard body doubles. so secret service aren't allowed to do that. that makes sense. the child runs up and says hello. why was that child allowed to run up? >> except it doesn't make sense whatsoever because it is absurd

because it is clearly the same person who has the same stomach and same squin and the same everything. >> this is why you wou star in murder she wrote because you would have blown the whole plot in the first minutes and we have 37 minutes to fill. this did not go away, and if you see the comments on the stories they build on it in a way i couldn't think. >> i can feel twitter lighting up telling us we are wrong, and you know what us because we're not buying into in. >> i'm going to add to it quick. scott bayliff tweeted out, does anyone know the impersonator who looks like the body double. that person wrote back and said, i'm in los angeles. scott baio blew it on this. >> in the wake of the hillary clinton health care madness this happened at a local station and we didn't want you to miss it. >> we begin with breaking news about hillary clinton's death. hillary clinton's doctor has just revealed the presidential

candidate has been diagnosed with pneumonia. >> oh, oh, it is bad. live tv, you say stupid stuff. >> right, not me but others. >> so i hear. >> no, i know. listen, joe torres, i watch every day and everybody in new york knows wabc is usually the number one station. joe tores said that. he should have used the word health, but the amazing thing is -- >> not dead, sis alive. >> james would stop you, he went the whole show, nobody fixed it until the end, they said he misspoke but you know what he meant. >> he clearly did misspeak but you had to laugh a little because as a news anchor you say stupid stuff. you're my witness. it is embarrassing and you have to correct it. >> again, i don't. >> again, to make it perfectly clear. now, something happens tonight on "the tonight show with jimmy fallon" and washington it is. >> can i mess your hair up?

>> how many of you think that -- >> the answer is yes, but the people in new hampshire where i'm going to be about an hour from now, i hope they're going to understand. >> did you say yes? >> go ahead. >> yes! donald trump, everybody! >> do it again. >> good for him. >> another reason why jimmy fallon is great and another reason they say donald trump has a sense of humility about him. >> i would say jimmy fallon is great and he copied me. >> what do you mean? >> watch. >> it is not that color, i actually comb it back. >> i see. there's no receding hairline. >> it is a tiny receding.

>> looks good. >> i am getting a little older. it is not that bad. you're surprised, right? >> that's from 2011. trump has a great sense of humor and he has the ability to be self-deprecating. if he can show more of that he may be contrasted sharply to his opponent. >> who has yet to show it. maybe that's the october surprise, the sense of museumor. >> behind closed doors they say she is funny. >> have you heard that, behind closed doors? >> absolutely. >> how many doors are there, nine layers, the get smart, the biois fear. i have not seen it. >> if you can bring it, not the hair to the presidential debate, but if he can bring a sense of humor and find a way to make people laugh, that will be huge for him because she won't take that risk. >> you know the goal is to get him angry and make him look like a bully. >> she wants angry trump. in kilmeade, thank you, sir. i'm going to do it too. see you, be right back.

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let us know what you thought of the show. go to facebook.com/kelly/file and follow me on twitter. let me know what you think. >> i think i lost my ring. >> everyone needs one of these. >> there you go. there you go. tonight -- >> the polls tonight, the polls are coming out. we are leading in so many polls i can't tell you. i don't know where to begin. >> donald trump is seizing momentum in the 2016 race with a major rise in the polls. laura ingraham is here tonight with reaction. >> i don't know, folks. you think hillary would be able to stand up here for an hour and do this? >> donald trump calls hillary clinton's stamina into question. >> i don't think so. >> as he releases details about his health. >> the records that i got without question indicate he's healthy enough to be president. >> and trump's running mate governor mike pence joins us to weigh in. >> i will fight for every last american job and every american company. >> also, donald trump l