wrap up. i appreciate it. jim gray joining us on the phone on this sad day. arnold palmer golf legend dies. we are here at hofstra university getting ready for the debate. arnold palmer dead at the age of 87. breaking tonight, we are exactly 24 hours away from what could prove to be the most important night of the 2016 election as hillary clinton and donald trump square off in the first presidential debate. it's happening. a debate that is largely expected to break records especially becoming the most watched political event of all time. welcome to a special live sunday edition of "the kelly file." at this time tomorrow the candidates will be on stage and the outcome of this race could hang in the balance. a brand new abc news washington post poll shows hillary clinton beating donald trump by just two points now 49-47 within the

margin of error. earlier this month this same poll had her up by eight points skpmpt this poll is only a mirror image of the latest real clear average which had hillary clinton up by 2.5%. from what viewers can expect to see tomorrow night the 90-minute debate on this stage here will be divided into six segments. there will be no breaks. nbc's lester holt will moderate. he has chosen the topics in no particular order. america's direction, achieving prosperity and securing america. we are told the topics could change based on breaking news. back here in new york we have a big show lined up for you. this is the last time we get to talk to you until the debate is happening. we are looking forward to the preview. we will speak with reince priebus who has been with donald trump as he prepares for the debate including this weekend.

kraut charles krauthammer is here and we will speak with stewart stevens. we begin the night with our chief political correspondent reporting live from trump tower in new york city. the fighting has hardly died down. >> reporter: it's getting hotter and hotter by the moment. both of the candidates trump and clinton, actually had separate meetings with israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu today. apart from that they got just about nothing in common. they face off tomorrow night. it has already been filled with trash talk. it started last week when the clinton campaign suggested that they were going to have in the front row mark cuban, the billionaire, former tv reality star and owner of the dallas

mavericks nba team basically to try to distract and irritate donald trump. that prompted cuban to send a tweet out saying he would be willing to show up. trump followed that by saying if that were the case he would bring in jennifer flowers who back in the '90s acknowledged having had a sexual relationship with bill clinton. he admitted it under oath during the kent star investigation. she tweeted and said yes and let it be known that she would be willing to come. it turns out that is not going to happen. they are going to jennifer flowers and back and forth with that tone. it will be difficult for both candidates to do what their aides say what they intend to do be presidential and show they are willing to full 23i8 the highest office when they

have already sort of laid the preface to all of this with name calling and stuff that has very little to do with what the american voters seem interested in. much has been made about which donald trump will show up. will it be the more subdued donald trump of late or the man who treated us to debate moments like these. >> raise your hand now if you won't make that pledge tonight. mr. trump. >> i think you are on the wrong side of this if you are still arguing. >> i don't think you heard me. you are having a hard time tonight. i have never gone bankrupt by the way. i have never. >> excuse me. >> that's your line but your companies have gone bankrupt. >> i think women heard very clearly what mr. trump said. >> i think she has a beautiful face and i think she is a beautiful woman. >> the one guy that had some

special interest that i know of that tries to get me to change my views on something was donald trump. he wanted casino gambling in florida. >> i would have gotten it. >> i was opposed to casino gambling before during and after. >> more energy tonight. i like that. >> you're the one. >> i have given my answer lying ted. >> he hit my hands. nobody has ever hit my hands. look at those hands. are they small hands? and he referred to my hands if they are small something else must be small. i guarantee you there is no problem. i guarantee. >> okay. moving on. >> oh boy. joining us now, reince priebus, chairman of the republican national committee.

he has been with donald trump during debate preparation. have you seen him recently? >> this afternoon. >> how is he? >> he is great. he is relaxed. he is doing well. >> he is a little nervous. he is only human. >> he is not nervous. he is getting ready. >> how? what can you tell us about it? >> he is studying and going through the issues. he has a good team and going through particular questions that might come up. he is handling it and has been working on it. it is not like something that just happened the last couple of days. >> does he stand behind a electern. >> do you throw the meanest questions at him? >> sometimes we just go throw policy. >> how many people does he allow in there? too much information can be a bad thing. >> i don't know what the number is. i have never done a head count. the team is very well prepared. the right people are in the room. i can tell you that donald

trump's head is in this thing and he has been consistent and he has been working hard and he has a really good attitude about him. it is not like he is sitting around nervous. he is pretty calm cool and collected. >> it will happen tomorrow night. he is a human being. she is a human being. we like to think they are not when they run for president but they are. you cannot help but get nervous even someone like me in front of people every night. >> hillary clinton has been doing this for almost three decades. she is going to be held to a pretty high standard tomorrow night. the detail all of the things she has lived her life around legislative process. donald trump is an outsider. and they both have different things that i think a they need to accomplish. the burden will be on her in a pretty big way. >> this question about donald trump showing up. is he going to be the more subdued trump or on the attack? >> i think if you look at the

last few weeks you have seen a very measured on message donald trump who has been doing a fabulous job on laying out policy. >> the question is whether without the prompter with this opponent needling and needling will we see the same guy or little marco, look at my hands guy? >> i think you see someone ready to be president of the united states. that is the donald trump i have seen over the last several weeks, someone focussed in on the general election. you go for a primary and clips where it is a fond reminder. >> more fond for some than others. >> you go from that to the general election and also the gravity of the presidency and that is facing you down in the next 46 days. i think that has really come to light. i think he gets that. >> speaking of the gravity of the presidency.

the dust up about mark cuban. she started it by saying she is going to put mark cuban in the front row. he responded by saying great. showing up. they got cute and mark cuban got smart on twitter and started needling the campaign. this is a brush back. we are going to invite mark cuban to play games. the campaign brushed him back. i think they did a good job brushing him back. >> is there any limitation on that sort of mind game that they can play with each other? >> here is what i think is going on. i think that presidential debate committee has made it clear we will not have these kinds of

shenanigans in the front row in the screen shot tomorrow night. i don't know what the process will be for making sure that that doesn't happen. obviously, family members are going to be in those prime spots. certainly some kind of oddball scenario i don't think will be allowed by the debate commission. each campaign will have some sort of say over who is in the screen shot outside of family. >> she can exercise a veto over kathleen willie or jennifer flowers. >> i do believe the debate commission is handling this issue and i think doing it the right way. unfortunately, hillary clinton played this card a few days ago. >> i have this to say, welcome to our world. it has been this way for a long time just unexpected unprecedented debates and excitement and surprises. that's what we expect tomorrow night. >> it will be a great night.

donald trump is ready. >> are you nervous? >> i'm a little nervous. but obviously the candidates are the ones that are really in the hot seat. >> could this debate change the race? >> i think it can. we have a change candidate and someone who has done this for a long time and a change electorate. anytime you have a change electorate you are measuring risk versus change. how much risk to make the change. i think the last few weeks have been great for donald trump. if he continues the approach he is on which i think he will i think he will have a great night and i think it is harder and harder for hillary. >> 90 minutes hofstra tomorrow night. this time tomorrow we will be watching it and watching to see if we can see the sweat. great to see you. for 16 years stewart stevens has been helping people like george w. bush and mitt romney prepare for the most important debates of their careers. he is here next to tell us who he thinks can win.

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with less than 24 hours to go until a new york businessman squares off against an opponent with formidable debate experience. in 2012 romney had a wildly successful night. here are a couple of moments that made headlines. >> i'm sure this was the most romantic place you can imagine here with me. congratulations. i have five boys. i'm used to people saying something that is not always true but keep repeating it and hoping i will believe it. that is not the case. i will not reduce the taxes paid by high income americans. i will eliminate all programs by

this test if they don't pass it. is the program so critical it is worth borrowing money from china to pay for it? obama care is on my list. you are entitled your own airplane and house beutnot your own facts. the man responsible for helping to orchestrate mitt romney's 2012 performance, stu stevens great to see you. that was such a night for mitt romney. he was just on fire on point, on message. even team obama was stunned by how he beat him in every corner and president obama came back hard in the later debates. how can -- let's start with hillary. how can hillary clinton have a night like that? >> first, i want to say i was a very small part of the debate team. this is always up to the

candidates. mitt romney is a great debater. i think there are two questions facing in the clinton campaign. should they try to make her more likable or try to prosecute donald trump? i would come down on prosecute donald trump because i think she needs to show strength. i think that if she doesn't people will be asking why she didn't. they can come down both ways. it is a very different set of challenges for donald trump. >> you have a column out saying she should get in his face and stay in his face. you think she should attack attack attack and attack some more. doesn't she have to worry about people saying she is a shrewd or shrill? >> that's a decision they have to make. if i was asked i wouldn't worry about likability. i would say go out and do what

no one has ever done for 90 minutes which is challenge donald trump and challenge him consistently and run what we call in football a fast paced offense. i'd go right at him at the first question and at the second question and at the last question. and i worry about likability later. but they may very well make a different choice. >> i remember a couple of moments when you were challenged. we will leave that for the audience. >> not for 90 minutes. >> and in the primary debates the field was so dense. let's talk about him. let's put on the i like donald trump hat which i know you don't. what would you advise him to do to win? >> he needs to show maturity and knowledge. he not particularly unusual for

first presidential debate. then governor bush didn't pass the test until the first presidential debate with vice president gore. it is a very different set of demands than he faced in the primary. if i was advising donald trump i would really stay away from attacking hillary clinton. i would talk about my vision for the country, what i would do. i think he has to show that he has a lot of knowledge that people question if he has. >> do you think he can do it? do you think he can take punch after punch after punch after punch for 90 minutes and not respond? >> i have no idea. in all likelihood there will be several debates within the 90-minute debate. there will be different rhythms and momentums and different attack strategies at one moment. that's why i think consistency

would be best. it will be up to donald trump. one thing you control in the debate is what you say. no one can make you say anything you don't want to say. that seems like a simplestic thing to say. it is very difficult for some candidates to realize. they don't have to answer a question directly. >> not a courtroom. great to see you. >> great to see you. >> joining me now with more charles krauthammer. charles, so you have trump sitting in front of you. what is the core message you want to tell him about how to behave? >> between now and tomorrow night decafonly. don't talk about your hands. and in the end think of yourself in the press conference with the president of mexico. your job in this debate is to make people look at you and think you're a plausible

president. they are not going to care about any details. they won't appreciate snarkiness or disrespect. it is a fun thing in a circus of 15 candidates. it's not the same one-on-one. his goal is not to win on points. it's not to win on substance. it's to show himself to be calm. is there anything else we can say mildly original about the debate tomorrow i doubt it. it is to not shout and keep your voice modulated in a way that you did when you were standing there with a head of state. you were secretary of state. show you can stand there and be their equal. >> the good thing for trump is amazingly the man does not drink alcohol or caffeine. he doesn't drink coffee. >> he is off on the right foot. >> let's talk about her.

i guess your advice to her is that don't shout. this is always fun. let's watch. >> having said all of this why aren't i 50 points ahead you might ask? well the choice for working families has never been clearer. i need your help to get donald trump's record out to everybody. nobody should be fooled. >> i always know how it goes over america by how it goes with the crew. the guys are going like this. >> it's like a "saturday night live" parody. i think what she needs to do is to jab, not to go for the hay maker, not to go for the one thing to knock him out. he is very good at slipping away. we see the metaphors are boxing because this really is a spectacle of boxing. i think if she keeps jabbing at him, she wants to find what she needs to do is attack him on

many points calmly one after another. i'm sure that at some point he is going to succumb and want to strike back and that's her opportunity. these debates are never won or lost on points. if you listen on the radio you never get a flavor of who won or lost. the debates in the end are dependent on moments. she needs the one moment where she hits him somewhere where either he is defensive because he is being sort of portrayed or ignorant or wild. all he has to do. all those ads she ran essentially saying he is dr. strange love, he needs to do something very simple show himself as reasonably normal which for most of us is rather doable. can he do it for 90 minutes? >> do you believe given all that that the debate has the potential to be boring that she is not going to take any risks.

i'm two points ahead and he is going to say slow and steady wins the race. this isn't the place for risks. give a nice boring answer 90 minutes and we are off? >> boring he wins. he needs to be boring. she is running a campaign on saying this is the scariest guy, unfit, out of control. he can be up there for 90 minutes and be dull he wins the debate. >> i'm excited to see them be dull. i want to watch the whole thing. i want to see all -- you can see the wheels turning, the little hamster running on the wheel as lester asks the question. great to see you. >> my pleasure. >> will you be watching? i feel like the entire country will be watching this thing. everybody was asking me about it. so there is always the debate wildcard that you can't see coming. tomorrow night it could involve

either of two controversial stories breaking this weekend. we have our power panel up next. here they are. >> we want change. and hillary clinton is probably the least change in the history of our country. you know she is always talking about her experience and she does have experience but it is bad experience. she has bad judgment.

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with less than 24 hours to go until donald trump and hillary clinton's very first debate against one another we are continuing our expert analysis with former bush spokesperson. tonight we are asking about two breaking news stories that could prove to be wildcards in this debate. one involves race and the other involving a possible terror attack. in washington state a gunman walked into a macy's shopping store shooting dead five people. while initial reports suggested this may have been a disturbed individual there are now suggestions from lawmakers that a potential terror link might not be out of the question. we also watched as police in charlotte released the long awaited videos of the keith

scott shooting from the perspective of responding officers. with each side already spinning videos to support respective narratives issues of race and policing seems almost certain to come up tomorrow in debates. >> for the past three nights we have seen more protests but those have largely been peaceful. 400 or 500 people out marching. no violence. no property destruction, very few arrests. there were concerns at the nfl game here at 1:00 today that there might have been an attempt to disturb the game. that didn't happen. just 100 protesters showed up and were quickly surrounded by riot police there. the real event has been the release of police tape. police released two bits of video one involving a body camera from an officer who did not fire the shot. the second video from a dash cam. that video shows 43-year-old

keith scott taking several steps away from his suv. his hands are at his side. it shows the shots being fired, four shots. you can hear them and then scott hits the ground. what you can't tell from that video tape is whether scott had a gun in his hands at the time. there were concerns that the release of the video could spark more protests here. the police chief said the video is inconclusive and family members for the scott family have said these video tapes raise more questions than answers. it is still a nervous mood here on the street in downtown charlotte. a lot of businesses boarding up or shutting early. this merchant has allowed local artists to paint on the boards to make things a little less gloomy on this corner of charlotte. >> good to see you, steve. mark thesen american enterprise scholar. and founding executive director of georgetown university

institute of politics. great to see you all. let me start with you, motw moe. with the polls tightening now and she has the two point lead where she almost had a seven point lead. what does she need to do tomorrow? >> she ought to do two things. one -- and i agree with stustevens. she wants people to walk away from this debate really wondering whether or not this is the guy you want to entrust nuclear codes to. i think she needs to make a positive case for herself. she has to go out there and push her own message of why she is the person that people can turn to as their champion to help level the playing field for them. that's not an easy thing to do in a debate to make sure both of those things come across in almost every single answer.

i think that is the line that she ought to try to walk because i don't think one or the other is going to do it. i think that is true for both candidates. >> i know you say the number one thing to do is not so much land a blow but avoid a gaff. >> avoid landing a blow on yourself. if you look back at like the 2004 presidential debate where everybody gave it to john kerry where commentators and polls showed john kerry won. he lost because he was the only candidate who had a gaff that continued on after the election when he said we need a global test to see whether we are going to defend ourselves and the war on terror. bush sent out an ad on it. even thoehe won on points and people said he was by oxford rules the better debater. he lost because he said something that carried on and gave ammunition to the opponent

the candidate tomorrow night who does that will lose. >> both of those issues are dicy for presidential candidates. terror the american public to some consent is concerned about safety and some like the tough talk that donald has offered on this. but on policing and race in america donald trump needs more minority voters. and so if he goes too hard line there is risk in that for him, too. >> there are land mines on both sides. we are talking about the last week we saw the police video out of charlotte of keith scott being killed. it was last weekend that we had bombings in new york and new jersey. i think this is 100,000 times more important than jennifer flowers showing up. >> that is also really interesting. >> but donald trump is running as the outsider who would promise big change.

hillary clinton is tied to the obama administration. she can say she has more experience in the situation room dealing with things like terrorism. when you are running for a third term on your party. donald trump tends to overpromise. i'm going to wipe out african-american poverty. >> making statements resonate with people. they are easy to remember. walk away what does donald trump stand for? making america great again. she stands for stronger together. what does that mean? >> she has position papers and donald trump has themes. >> they want to see and hear from the candidates themselves. you tell me whether all these folks who thought she had this sewn up after the huge surge following her convention are really worried about what will happen on the stage tomorrow night. >> i think if you talk to people in the clinton campaign they will tell you they never believed they were at far ahead. this would settle a little after the bumps were over. i agree with howie in the sense

that when you have these types of big national moments like we have seen over the past week or so it tends to benefit the outsider. but maybe not in this election because if you believe a poll too many people have real questions about donald trump's temperament, his ability to stand up and deal with these big moments. >> she is winning on terrorism right now. one poll showed him ahead of her by one point. and then we took a closer look and she was ahead of him in five other polls. >> that is unprecedented. usually whoever has the r next to their name it is sort of baked in. if you have the r next to your name you are seen as stronger on terror just out of the box. that is a dangerous place for him to be in in this type of environment. >> what they are saying is that even though people like us get all gemmed up about the debates

and can't wait and maybe she will win or he will win they say ultimately the viewers and voters use them to confirm their own preexisting opinions. when a couple of weeks pass they want to change the race. >> this is an election where we have the two least popular, least liked candidates in modern political history. so people are really trying to decide can i vote for hillary clinton. who do i hate less? it is an unprecedented question going into a debate. so i think donald trump has to go out and be presidential. he has the oldest dynamics working in his favor. there is violence, chaos. it seems like obama's america is spinning out of control. donald trump is the candidate of law and order. he has also approached he went to wisconsin and gave the speech after the riots in milwaukee. today he was saying he would

make america safe for african-americans. if he takes that approach and looks presidential i think he has a good chance of winning. >> in almost every campaign since reagan the debates are a wash despite the hype. this could be different because of donald trump's unique outsider status. >> what about the pressure on poor lester holt -- not poor lester because it is a great opportunity. he has to fact check everything and on top of mr. trump and hillary has to bring the positive message. lester needs to be the one to fact check. >> there is no way as good a news man that lester holt is that everybody will be happy. he just has to do his job and ignore that kind of thing. it tells you something about the state of american politics today. good moderators just kind of -- you have experience with that.

>> when you are doing the debate and you hear the candidate say something that you know you want to follow up on every follow up is at the expense of another question. you have gone over and you love. and you want to hit them with. so you have to ask yourself whether that follow up is worth the sacrifice of the zinger you have coming up in the next section. sometimes that is what drives the decision. i know there is a follow up there but it is not worth it. that moment is not going to be powerful enough. >> with two people not 19 people. there is a chance to get those in. >> it is so amplified right now in the age of twitter where the narrative will be done ten minutes into the debate. >> great to see you all. up next we look at what is being called the clinton campaign's attempt to spin the media with katrina pearson and robert zimmerman. >> i am very concerned that

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subaru. kelley blue book's most trusted brand. and best overall brand. love. it's what makes a subaru, a subaru. from the world headquarters of fox news it's the kelly file with megyn kelly. >> less than 24 hours before hillary clinton and donald trump face off on the same stage. the clinton campaign is making a last-minute push to pressure the debate moderator and the media to take a look at what they call trump's, quote, debunked lies. independent fact check trump's statements. katrina pearson and robert zimmerman democratic strategist invited to attend tomorrow's debate. i understand some pressure on the moderator.

if trump says he never opposed the iraq war you say you did tell howard stern. she wants the media to interject if trump says she wants to eliminate the second amendment. i would say that is argument. >> first and foremost donald trump has been the one who has been playing and trying to shame the debate commission with one lie after another. this week alone. lester holt is a republican. a month ago he said the nfl sent him a letter saying these debates were totally improper because no one would be watching. nfl said they never sent donald trump a letter. he has been really trying to play the refs. what the clinton campaign is arguing is they want to see fairness in the process because if trump shows up sdated tomorrow it doesn't make him presidential but changes everything until the

tranquillizers wear off. >> your thoughts on that? >> i think this is absolutely laughable. we are talking about hillary clinton, someone that the clinton campaign and barack obama said she is a great debater. she has command of knowledge, foreign policy. most qualified person to run for president and now is complaining about a debate moderator. it is her job to call out things as she sees them not the media. you can open up any newspaper and see the headlines of the media calling donald trump a liar. she is lowering expectations for her own performance. >> she is subjecting to the candidate against whom she is running that trump doesn't always have a firm foothold. she is the one who has the record low ratings. >> not a firm foothold on the facts. donald trump is rated liar of the year by the politico did its fact checking. >> american public rated her --

>> if you look at the polling including washington post polling they are roughly running the same in terms of favorables and unfavorables. >> if you think it is lester holt's job to challenge everything she is saying or is that donald trump's job? >> if hillary clinton cannot handle lester holt she cannot handle isis. >> that's not the question. >> hillary clinton is the one caught lying about the e-mails, lying about national security lied under oath to congress not donald trump. mr. trump does have unfavorables but very different reason. >> the most dishonest. >> i have to ask you this because you know hillary and you spent time with her. which hillary is going to show up? do you think she will be on the attack? >> it's the same hillary we see

every year the same hillary we saw when see was certainly the first lady of the state of arkansas a woman who is fighting for families for children. >> it is about her message. >> about policy and how her policy is different than donald trump. when donald trump says that climate change is a hoax she will talk about protecting the environment. when he says he knows more about isis than generals -- >> you are saying they need to get donald trump a tranquillizer and katrina says they need to give her adrenaline that they give horses to make sure they don't collapse. >> and the reality is you can put your bet on hillary to make this race. >> we love animals. we love horses. also, we have one more critical item to cover. where was romney and obama when the election day came and look

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44 days out and where are we on the polls? on this date across the last four election cycles we saw president bush up president

obama up and tonight hillary clinton is up by just over two points. joining me now co founder and publisher of real clear politics. if you look at that then past indicators say hillary clinton is likely to win. however, this is the weirdest election of anybody's lifetime sdplmpt with if you look at the past four cycles there are a couple of instances where the race was close and ended close or basically the same number. 2008 obama pulled away. part of that was the financial crisis blossomed and blew that race open. this race feels different than any race we have experienced in the last 15 20 years. it is unprecedented to have two candidates so unliked and the public is engaged. they are watching this debate and factoring in decisions. yet all the data shows they really loathe the choice they have to make. >> we have 44 days left.

is that an eternity or not enough time? >> i think it is plenty of time. race is close nationally and certainly in the electoral college it is close and getting closer. so i think it's approaching and either candidate has this debate is going to be big. events can intervene. >> what do you make of the pennsylvania poll that shows trump within three of her now? >> we have seen that across the board in a lot of the states and the question is whether hillary has the firewall of blue states virginia pennsylvania wisconsin, new hampshire, colorado. we had a poll come out in colorado. 1.5%. >> she had been up there. >> donald trump manages to win that along with other states that he is leading in ohio florida, north carolina nevada he wins. >> tom, great to so you. before i let you go what is the chance that he has a winning? >> 40%. >> we will be right back.

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you may have heard the debate is tomorrow night at 9:00. and then afterward at 11:00 p.m. there will be a live kelly file. we will take you through everything that happened with all your favorite guests tomorrow night. see you at 9:00. ♪ welcome to hannity. less than 24 hours away from what might be the deciding factor of 2016 the first presidential debate. we are broadcasting from hofstra university. we will be joined by newt gingrich laura ingram sheriff david clark. i have debate thoughts to share with you. over the course of his campaign donald trump has given many significant foreign and domestic