to the factor. tomorrow we will be in washington, d.c. going to cause some trouble down there. i'm bill o'reilly, please remember that spin stops right here. we are definitely looking out for you. >>. breaking tonight, 34 days from the election and just four days from the next presidential debate. a life-threatening storm is bearing down on the united states as press dents up and down the east coast scramble to get out of harm's way. that's where we begin tonight's edition of the kelly file. welcome everybody, i'm megyn kelly. we have been news from the campaign trail and big threat in the atlantic. we will talk 2016 in a moment but we have to start with the massive hurricane who could score a big hit on the united states in less than 24 hours. millions are bracing for the impact of this thing. look at it. hundreds of thousands are now evacuating their counties ahead of hurricane matthew. it is the first major hurricane threat for the united states in

a decade. the monster storm killed near lay dozen people in the caribbean already on its march towards florida and east coast. governors in four states already decliering an emergency. president obama urging americans to take this very seriously and florida governor rick scott warning of the possibility of quote massive destruction that we haven't seen in years. we have got every angle of this storm covered for you and will be updating you on its traction throughout the night and on its progress. meanwhile just four days remain before the second of three presidential debates. on the campaign watches say could provide a reset of sorts for donald trump. this showdown will be unlike any other we'll see with two moderators hosting. cnn's anderson cooper and abc's martha raddatz in town hall format. questions will come mostly from voters. they are keeping very different schedule to the run up to sunday

night. mrs. clinton is running fund-raisers and focussing on debate prep. mr. trump has been hitting the campaign trail hard in nevada today and will ramp up prep work later this week. regardless both campaigns say they are ready to go. >> the town hall format is a sweet spot for him. he is the one out there with voters every single day. i'm not sure the town hall format is great for hillary clinton either. she seems much more comfortable behind the podium. we have seen her out there with people. that doesn't seem like her comfortable arena. >> i'm looking forward to our next debate next sunday. [ applause ] i thought the first one went pretty well. >> in moments we will talk strategy with stewart stevens, campaign strategist for mitt romney. but we begin tonight with jason miller, trump's senior communications adviser. thanks for being here. >> thanks for having me. listen, the polls say that she

won that first debate but you tell me whether she would do better to be a little less glib and a little more likeable on the subject. self depricating is not really trump's thing either. but you tell me whether she will win over voters on the fence by the, it went pretty well, thing. >> well i think the, why aim not 50 point ahead line, gives you insight into secretary clinton's thinking and her attitude towards voters. i think especially with the town hall format that we will see sunday night. this is an opportunity for mr. pr trump to do well. this format allows him to connect with people a but i don't know if secretary clinton can memorize enough lines. >> we saw trump in the primary season and anderson cooper town hall. and he kind of got in somebody's face. the guy asked him a tough question about why he said george w. bush knew about the 9/11 or lied to get us into iraq. and trump is fine, i'm not

getting your vote. is he told it is not good to yell at voters. be nice to ask people asking the questions, even if it is snarky question. >> people like him, he tells it like it is. he hasn't been memorizing lines. i think he will do well on sunday. we will actually do a town hall tomorrow night in new hampshire. 7:00. so that will be -- >> take a little practice? >> mr. trump does a lot of town halls and meets and talks with voters all the time. but one we do in advance and he will do debate prep tomorrow and friday and we will get ready. >> will we see a different trump at this debate than the last one? some criticize of him were punch back, right? don't defend everything she lobs your way. don't be on defense. but punch back. punch at her and punch relentlessly as it goes on. >> the goal into the first debate is to make sure it is clear who is the insider and who is the outsider. who fights to change the economy. who fight to make her country more safe and secure. we felt from our end that we're

able to accomplish that. i think this time we will get more into some specifics. i think you will see really the consumer benefit of trump presidency will do for the american people. . and i think that's where things will separate. that's where secretary clinton h people. >> does he get that she laid a trip for him with that alicia a machado thing and then he stayed in it for five days. >> he will defend himself. he can go and defend himself. >> it didn't help him. his supporters, some were so disappointed that he stayed in that ugly place for five days when he had so much momentum behind him and they don't want to see him do that again. >> what they absolutely love said that he did well for that entire debate and he stood up and fought for himself and didn't back down. >> and in drug addiction, first step is admitting you have a problem. first step is admitting that is a mistake. dent walk into the trap. don't stay in the trap. don't enjoy the trap.

don't extend the trap by five days. >> i disagree with you. i saw the debate a bit differently. i thought mr. trump did fantastic. there's a reason we see the crowds and energy and excitement. let's look ahead to sunday what we think will come up. that's the one where i reviewed a lot of game tape of secretary clinton. she is always good on the first answer. she can come through. she will have memorized probably a couple hundred lines. she will have those down. as you start getting to the second questions, third questions, that's where she gets tripped up. that's where she has a tough time relating with people. she can't connect. i think the clintons are so separated from regular people. they can't quite connect. how do you go from not paying either of your mortgages when you leave the white house to being worth a couple hundred million dollars without ever doing so much as billing an hour of legal work or producing anything or winning powerball or anything else. they live in an alternate reality and i don't think they get what it means to be in america. >> they gave a lot of speeches. a lot of speeches that paid very, very well.

>> would you paid them $500,000 for a speech? >> i do not give that kind of money away. and i think bill clinton lived a very different life. very different life than i have. >> one thing that i think is important about sunday, one thing we see with the election over all is where the enthusiasm and energy is in this race is clearly with mr. trump. we see with secretary clinton that just small crowds. maybe a thousand. if she's lucky. >> that's all true. but cloud size does not determine what happens on election day. we saw that last time around with mitt romney. >> voter intensity. voter intense sit there for mr. trump. we see it in the polls. we feel good about being here. >> thank you. george stephens, from strategic partners and media, worked with mitt romney. i remember seeing the swellinging crowds for romney, you know, especially in the last couple of weeks before the election. it was incredible. people thought there's no way he will win this. no way. and yet, as we now know, the crowd size was not predicted.

>> well, you know, it is a big country. and if you have a crowd of say 60,000 a day, and you still need to get to 65 million, it is going to take you about five or six years it reach those people. i think it is nice to have voter intensity. >> and they do have it. they do have it behind donald trump. >> i think donald trump has a smaller following. the question here is just, it is about addition now. everything you do should be about addition at this stage of the campaign. what new voters is donald trump adding to his coalition. all those voters only get to vo vote once. a more enhas enthusiastic voter the same as the ballot box. >> so don't you expect him to

get know that. >> don't we expect trump to know that. given what happened to him in the wake of the first debate, he will change a bit and be a little softer. he will hit hillary harder but be softener dealing with the individual question at the town hall? >> i don't know. different format. it suites itself better to that. personally, i think donald trump is still running against donald trump. and he should focus on telling people more about himself. he ought to ask people for a second look if he decided not to vote for me. i think it is a referral on donald trump that he still has favorables under 40 and that just limits his growth. >> i'll ask the same question i just asked about her with the -- i thought the debate went pretty well. i get that her supporters love that. yeah, you go, girl. but these two candidates are fighting over this group in the middel that doesn't like either one of them. right? these people who haven't decided, they don't like her and don't like him. you tell me whether that sort

of, yeah, thing is going to go over well with these people. >> hillary clinton has low favorable but higher than donald trump. but a bigger, better campaign. they designed this campaign to to place her in situations where she can do okay. they aren't asking her to go out there and win the race, carry this race on her back, like a sporting analogy. they believe that they have, an organization can deliver a campaign message and that she has passed that threshold so people can imagine her as president of the united states. for a lot of voters, donald trump hasn't passed the threshold. still a very high number of people who can't imagine donald trump being president. i think that's what he should try to address on sunday night. >> now they are both in their own version of a presidential protection program which you say they designed her situation so she is not in a place where she feels uncomfortable or is

anything unexpected can come at her which is why she sat for half an with mary j. blige, the singer, why she did entertainment tonight, she went on the steve harvey show and she gave every question given to her in writing in advance and feigns surprise when questions were asked. and donald trump will go on hannity and pretty much only hannity and won't venture out to unsafe spaces which doesn't expand the tent for either one of them. that's my two cents. stewart, i'll give you the last word. >> i think when you saw in the last debate hillary clinton was delivering messages that resonate with certain audiences. her comments about african-americans and the legal system. i think the white voters like hillary clinton are not like hillary clinton. it just doesn't have the resonance it has like with african-americans. they know how to put together the coalitions.

>> we will see. the electoral math is looking better and better for her. stewart, always a pleasure. breaking tonight, new details from the national hurricane center on matthew. the storm now has sustained wind of over 115 miles an hour. it is tracking straight toward the southeast coast of florida. moments ago we got word the ft. lauderdale airport is shutting down completely tomorrow morning. we will go to our weather center in moments for the latest predictions. plus, did the clinton campaign just make a big political error when it comes to this storm? yes, even matthew will be politicized. next, what mrs. clinton's steam just announced and why it could cause them problems in the key swing state of florida. then, reports that obama care is suddenly facing new and serious trouble from the exact problems that the critics predicted, including here on this broadcast two years ago. we will speak once again with dr. ezekiel emmanuel. key architect of the health care

overhaul. about what they told us then and what is happening now. >> you talk to somebody who said, i don't know, i was watching fox news and they said this is horrible. see for yourself what the choices are, then make up your own mind. before taking his team to state for the first time...

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fox extreme weather alert as we track a deadly storm that could soon impact an estimated 15 million americans. we're getting new pictures of the devastation from the category 4 hurricane, matthew is its name, in haiti. where the u.n. declared the worse hugian crisis since the 2010 earth yak that left 200,000 dead. look at this. look that. we just got word that fort lauderdale aport in florida is shutting down at 10:30 tomorrow morning. gas station answers parts of the state are running out of fuel and grocery aisles are cleared out as residents deal with mandatory evacuation orders. >> regardless if there is a direct hit or not, impact will be devastating. i cannot emphasize enough that everyone in the state must prepare now for a direct hit. >> if you get an evacuation order, just remember can you always rebuild. can you always repair property.

you cannot restore life if it is lost. >> for those of you wondering whether you should leave or not, i again will tell you, that if you do not leave, you are putting a law enforcement officer or national guardsman's life on the line when they have to go back and get you. >> live in the fox weather center for us tonight, rick? >> such a great point, when you stay, you are putting someone else's life in danger if they have to come get you. i'm so glad to hear governor haley say that. spent the time in haiti and cuba, not a lot of time, but enough to disrupt it a little bit. so it weakened down to 115 miles an hour. still major category 3 storm. don't be fooled by that. latest satellite representation, all indications are that it is about to go through a strengthening cycle. we generally see that in overnight hours. we will get back up to category 4 storm. we have hurricane watches in effect across the georgia coast down throughout the keys. but hurricane warnings from

right up here at daytona beach down toward miami and that's where we will be watching the brunt of this starting tomorrow afternoon. i also want to point out, it goes inland. so orlando, you are under a hurricane warning. not just a coastal event. take a look at what one of our model predecks does. by tomorrow around noon we've got tropical storm force winds around miami. and then take a look at this, megyn, during tomorrow night, right around this time, potentially major hurricane winds right on shore here and it tracks right along the coast, all night tomorrow night, all throughout the day on friday and entire eastern coast of florida looking to be pummelled by potentially major hurricane starting tomorrow night. >> we will make sure we are live on the air and covering that for everyone there. rick, thank you. >> you bet. >> it's political season. so you know that even before this storm makes land fall it is already impacting this presidential race. team clinton decided this is a good time to make a big advertising buy on the weather

channel. in a series of major florida markets, right? some critics are questioning whether this move could end up angering some of the voters she is trying to reach. join me now, new cohosts of perino and stierwalt. is that good, chris? >> sounds so good to hear. >> chris, also your fox news politics editor even dana perino. you have too many titles. you have to choose which ones you want. i don't have the time. >> that other show is temporary so it will go away. >> okay. i will start with you dana because you are here live on this set. ad buy on the weather change by hillary. i understand the goal to run for president is to reach people. >> i think it depend on what ads are. if they are ads slash and burn against donald trump, i don't think that would be very welcome. but if they ads that be uplift, it might have a positive impact. i think the impact of the storm is so big they might not have a

lot of commercial breaks because the impact of the storm is, if what rick is saying ends up happening we could be in a dire situation for millions of people, for a long period of time. and how is that politically, we saw with superstorm sandy, it does have an impact. and you know, you could argue it goes to 20 is a and costing chris christie a lot of political voters. he denies the hug but they were exchanging fuzzy animals that president obama got him on the board walk. >> i keep saying to governor christie, there was no hug. i keep saying, don't make me show you the video of him winning that you fuzzy bear. >> president obama played it well. he took good advantage of that. he showed good partisanship by getting governor christie to accept his care bear but he also was able to blame global warming. he even stayed on, brought his actual message points from the campaign into it.

meantime, mitt romney couldn't get in the state. he couldn't get around. christie told him to stay away which is probably right. what is mitt romney going to do other than stand around and have nice hair. he blows nicely -- >> the breeze is coming in. >> right. he won't be able to do anything. that's where running against an incumbent makes it harder because obama could go there, push his message about -- >> that's not the case here. >> not the case here. we got nobody. people who are, a never was and a former. so what? and all they can do is stay away and hope that people from their parties, that republican governors of the states, and that president and his organization, don't screw up because if they do, it will be bad for them. >> dana, we also have a presidential debate this sunday night, within 24 hours of this storm hitting land fall. >> so you will have, this could be upwards of 15 million and multiples of that that are going to be focused on the storm. and pay little attention to the

debate. nobody pays attention as much as we do. but it is possible that night could you end up with trump, a split screen with donald trump, hillary clinton, and then the weather map. or coverage. because people will want to know what is happening to their communities. >> and what about, you know, early voting, right? this is also going to impact north carolina and florida and you tell me whether turnout for that is a factor or is this going to depress any of that or change any of that? could defert who i believe is working on a data dial -- >> i'll tell you what, you may. >> see how well they work together. >> i don't know any answers, i just defer to him. >> i'm sweating like crazy. i will come up with something good, dad gum it. but earnly voting is a huge factor. in north carolina and florida. if the storm is disrupted to a great degree that harmful for democrats who like early voting so they can mobilize voters,

hard to get out voters. so democrats want this to be over quickly and not massively disruptive so they can take advantage of everyday on the map. >> fascinating. >> but in florida you never know what will happen. >> look at dana, putting her head over the satellite. >> i think it is probably good. put it back. i like it. >> this floating head above the form. i'm not sure what we're trying to say about dana. >> i'm having one of those weeks. >> remember she was crying last night. >> only through one eye. >> i got to go. bye guys. >> also tonight, a series of new polls show hillary clinton gaining ground. one major survey consistently shows donald trump ahead. those polsters are here to explain what is going on. plus obama care now facing major knew challenges. with report surfacing that the law may not survive. up next, our old friend zeek

emmanuel. architect and renowned doctor joins with us what went wrong and why. >> while health care may seem like a threat to the freedom of american people, on fox news it turns out it is working pretty well in the real world. trs (climbing sounds)

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. fox extreme weather alert. military is sending hundreds of u.s. troops to hurricane-battered haiti. as we get reports after rising death toll in that country. least 26 people dead. you're seeing the latest track of the storm heading straight for florida and for the east coast. nearly 2 million people have been urged to evacuate from their areas and local reporters on the ground say a lot of people are planning to stay. stay tuned for more updates throughout the evening. >> well, obama care has suddenly exploded back into the headlines these days after mostly sitting on the bench as an issue in 2016. it started again when president bill clinton called the law crazy on monday drawing attention to some major challenges now facing the president's signature health care law. fox news was among those questioning for years whether obama care was viable based on

well documented concerns from economists and health insurance officials and time and time again critics, fox channel included, were called out by the president himself. watch. >> we knew going into the debate that it would be some subject to distortions. subject to some misleading information. >> we need everybody out there. get the right information. don't just read a blog or you know, some commentary. from some pundit. that has a political agenda. don't let people confuse you. don't let them run the okey-doke on you. don't be bamboozled. if you talk to somebody who said, well, i don't know, i was watching fox news and they said it's horrible. see for yourself what choices are and then make up your own

mind. while good health care might seem like a feigned threat to the american people, on fox news, seems like it is working out pretty well in the real world. >> tonight we have one of the key architects of obama care, dr. ezekiel emmanuel who joins us tonight. i last spoke with him more than two years ago. we will show you some of that in a min minute. but first trace gallagher live from our west coast newsroom. trace? >> megyn, aetna summed it up by saying policy holders are thicker and costlier than expect end unless you have a balanced risk pool meaning more younger and healthier people it is impossible to provide affordable high quality health care. after losing $433 million over the last two years starting in 2017 aetna will stop selling obama care in 11 of the 15 states it now serves. united health care, nation's largest insurers says it lost $1

billion over the past two years and in 2017 it too will exit most health care exchanges. a third of the country will have one or two insurance companies to pick from. and the lack of competition means big time rate increases for example in tennessee, blue cross blue shield is raising rates 62% in 2017. in kentucky, golden rule insurance is boosting rates 47%. in iowa, well mark is uping premiums 42% and the list goes on. the government is also hemorrhaging money. if you're not getting hit with higher premiums, your tax dollars are certainly getting tacked. many republicans saying they are trying to repeal obama care but democrats are also voicing concerns. the most famous, being the former president. watch. >> so you've got this crazy system where all of a sudden 25 million more people have health care and then the people are out

to bust it sometimes 60 hours a week wined up with their premiums together and coverage cut in half. it's the craziest thing in the world. >> others thinks that to cure what clinton called crazy is an insurance plan offered by the government. kind of like the v.a. remember in 2009 when president obama was giving his health care speech to a joint session of congress and when he said the affordable care act would not cover illegal immigrants? south carolina congressman joe wilson shouted you lie. now california is negotiating with the federal government to have obama care cover illegal immigrants. megyn? >> while our next guest is a key architect of obama care, he visited this show back in the winter of 2013. don't you agree the system is going to collapse unless we get those young people to sign up and -- >> no. the president has given you a plan that will cover everyone. so if your employer decides he

can't cover you or won't cover you, have you a safety net where you can get insurance. >> is the exchange a stable way to buy insure without it going into a death spiral because we don't have a enough people in it. it will be stable place to buy insurance. >> joining me now, global initiatives and medical ethics and health policy department chair, university of pennsylvania, dr. ezekiel emmanuel. doctor, great to see you again. thank you for being here. >> nice to be here. >> stable market. obviously it is not with this mass exodus of insurance companies, were you wrong? >> megyn, your reporter did a very nice job of cherry picking the nice extreme. some have gone up higher than others but -- >> 50 plus percent. >> the premium hikes are because they came in, they did miscalibrate the mark pet. they were trying to get market

share. it is a correction. and you know, it is a problem that we do need to address. there's no doubt. it needs to be addressed. but it is not across the board. on average we do not have higher than 15% increases in the premiums and it is going to be a one-time increase. >> on average business doesn't help the person in arizona county who's got a 51% hike in their premiums. people in tennessee with 62% hike in premiums. >> again, megyn, what you are identifying is one product. there are many others to choose from in these places. >> many only have one insurer. one plan to choose from and one insurance company. >> can you cherry pick but it is not the only -- it is not after the wrath and not what affect the -- >> but the average doesn't mean anything to the person who is affected by the high cost. >> republicans bear some of the spomt for this. remember, marco rubio eliminated some of the risk adjustment that

actually buffered and helped the insurance companies in this situation. >> okay. but that's about the blame. i'm just talking about problem. there's plenty of blame it go around. >> no, not blame. it is republican clamoring -- >> you are an architect on the law, sir. let's just start with you when i get marco rubio here, we will talk to him. you're the ak tearchitect. you said it would be stable. what we are hearing today from the chief executive, national association of health underwriters is in many facing the individual market is in shambles. shambles. >> megyn, you going to let me finish? >> go for it. >> okay. one of the things we built into the law was various ways of providing risk corps doers and risk adjustment so that insurers would be protected against getting too many sick people h which is the heart of the problem. marco rubio in the senate took that away and destabilized the market.

when i told you two years ago it would be a stable market, those risk protections were in place. and the republicans took it away. >> okay. i get it. so marco rubio -- >> they bear a major responsibility. there are things we did k do -- >> we talk about -- >> let me finish -- >> we talk about the risk of young people not signing up. they would rather pay the penalty. and you said they would sign up. we talked about, you said look, the very poor people will be covered by medicaid and next group of people will sign up. we have that exchange. second soundbite from my control room. can you play it? watch. >> what we're being told right now is that young people who you have said in your writings and you acknowledge are critical to the success of this plan are not signing up. don't you agree the system is going to collapse unless we have the young people to sign up and start paying. >> let me explain something. first of all, we are -- our plan

to have people go on medicaid, about half of the people who are supposed to be covered under 133% of the poverty line are exposed to get medicaid. people above 133% of the poverty line will involve in the exchange. >> but the young people are not signing up. they are choosing instead to pate penalty, which is a problem. for people just above that price point where they can get medicaid, they are not signing up either. subsidies are not big enough. what we are told is that they have enonly 17% of customers. only 17% of the people who make about 35 grand to 47 grand, only 17% signed up. you have all these people without insurance. they can't afford it. that's where you're not getting healthy people in. so my question to you, doctor, is aren't the concerns we talked about years ago coming to fruition to the detrimental of the law and to those who are supposed to have been helped buy

it. >> look, we have actually had millions of people, 11 million people who have come into the exchange, do we need it make adjustments in the interim after six years we need to see that things need to be changed. we suggested some very simple adjustments that will make sense. first of all, from the time, penalty is going up so it is actually more real to more people. >> you will force them to buy insurance. >> let me finish. >> i'm just explaining what you mean by the penalty. >> so contrary to what your person said, the federal government has been saving -- is projected save between 2014 and 2019 about $1.5 trillion on lower spending. we can deploy some of that money to increase the subsidies and make them more generous. we could make some adjustments and increase penalty and make it more seriously for people. these are not major shocks to the system. minor adjustments to a system

that -- to the obama care that will make it more viable. >> major shock came back, you know, after 2010 after the law was enacted. >> with the risk corridor, putting them back in theorying corridors. >> you know, you say that 11 million people signed up. you were just on this show a couple years ago saying 34 million people. 34 million will get coverage. now down to 11. 11. >> no, no, no. get coverage through both medicaid expansion and the exchanges. now what happened? >> 11 million. 8 will million people already had insurance. and your number you are throwing out, they had insurance they liked. they got kicked off of the policy and forced to buy new wines. >> no. we did not get 8 million people kicked off. you are now saying an untruth. many more millions -- up to 4 million more people would have got coverage if places like texas and florida and go would have expanded p medicaid as we wanted in the system.

it wasn't the 32 we predicted. but it is 24 million. that's better than the previous system. >> and a lot of people were not insured and did get coverage. i'll give you that one. leave it on that happy note where we have some agreement. listen yb despite all these disagreements that we have, i love having you on. you're smart, you know your stuff and you're a stand-up guy. >> you keep interrupting me so i can't explain. >> because you go on and on. i know how to keep you interesting. trust me, you're in good hands. i got go. great to see you. breaking tonight, watches and warnings. as far north as north carolina. and reports on the folks on the ground in florida are refusing to evacuate. thisays happens. as hurricane matthew marchs through florida. out of nine major nationals polls, one shows trump beating clinton in this election. washington bureau chief is here to explain why that is. don't miss it. i love getting more for less.

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we're now just 34 days away from electing the next president of the united states. in a series of recent polls show hillary clinton gaining ground. but one major survey showing donald trump still on top. it comes from a usc los angeles times daily tracking poll. it shows mr. trump with a four-point lead over hillary clinton. joining me now, david lauder. washington bureau cleef at "l.a. times" and tom bevin, publisher of real politics.com. david, you found 3,000 people and you just keep tracking samples within that same group. you don't do sort of the random calling that most polsters do. why? >> one of the big problems that polls have is that when you call the different sam. every week or every other week or every month, you never really know when the people that you're getting from one sample are comparable to the people you got before. maybe one week one side is much more enthusiastic than the

other. maybe something is going really well in the news and they really want to talk. so you'll have a surge of people who are democrats for example one week or republicans another week. and you'll have a poll that bounces around and you never really know, is it bouncing around because people are actually changing their minds? or because you're just getting different people action the phone. >> so in this group. in this group of 3,000, are they people who started off demes or republicans or undecided? is that factored in? >> oh, sure. it is a balanced mix that's weighted to be representative of the population as a whole. so you take this group that you've made representative of the population and you go back to them every week and you ask them the same questions. that way you can ensure that when there's a change in the poll, it's an actual person changing their mind rather than just a change in who answers the phone. >> i understand this is an experiment of sorts for you but how confident are you because your poll is of course an outlier. >> of course we don't have a

crystal ball, right? so you never really know. but this group that is at usc, doing the poll with us, they did the same technique four years ago and they produced very accurate poll. they were one of the only polls that got president obama's reelection marchs right. so we think they are doing a good job. they know what they're doing and you know, there's no guarantee that we're right and other people are wrong. but i think that we got a pretty good shot at it. >> no guarantee in polling at all. >> that's right. >> tom, your site has taken heat for polling this p poll in the average of polls because it is an obvious outlier whose methodology is tested except for in one other instance. >> right. the people producing this poll did do the 2012 election and came out with a very accurate result. they actually had obama, they were on the high side of obama

and margin of viektctory in tha election and that's what it turned out to be. and partnering with a major media organization, "l.a. times." and third thing i would say, is look, it's our poll average has between 8 and 12 polls at any given time. right now the polls and this is just 1 of the 9. >> who do you make of it, tom? how reliable would you say it is? do you think this is the secret donald trump victory that nobody seeing? >> i wouldn't say that. but look, i'm not willing to just say it's, you know, completely off the board. as one example, megyn, this one example. we had two polls in ohio. one from quinnipiac showing donald trump up five point and one from monmouth showing hillary clinton up two point. there's a seven-point gap right there. it is pronounce end again the "l.a. times" poll has been more favorable to trump over a more consistent period of time. but again, you do have -- again just one poll in a nine poll of

pollers that we have -- >> you're hedging your bets and it is fascinating if he can come back and did a victory lap if they get it right. great to see you both. >> thanks. >> up next, live to south carolina as matthew takes aim. c. now pre-treat with clorox 2! watch stains disappear right before your eyes. remove 4 times more stains than detergent alone. what's going on here? i'm val, the orange money retirement squirrel from voya. we're putting away acorns. you know, to show the importance of saving for the future. so you're sort of like a spokes person? more of a spokes metaphor. get organized at voya.com.

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breaking tonight,

unprecedented steps under way ahead of what may be a historic hurricane land fall on the united states. anxious drivers filling up their tanks and emptying gas station pumps. for the first time ever, interstate lanes reversed. emptying coastal cities. live in charlston south carolina for us tonight where residents are bracing for the storm. jonathan? >> report megyn, all of the pumps are shut down. you can see the tape. they will be closed at least through sunday because this is a when-lying area prone to flooding. one of the areas that is part of the evacuation notice to clear earlier today by south caroline yoo governor nikki haley. state officials say there is enough fuel in the supply clan that people don't have to worry about finding gas to fill their cars at other stations.

some lines have been busier than usual. as residents line up to top off tanks. we found lot of people loading cares with extra food and watter. manager after local hardware store told us he got a flood of customers almost immediately after governor haley ordered evacuation of coastal areas in and around charlston and bufford. state highway officials decided to reverse eastbound lanes of interstate 26 and in other word all lanes of i-26 heading westbound away from the coast. if you get in the reverse lanes, you need to make sure you have enough gas it get to columbia because no exits are permitted along the 100-mile route. evacuees looking for hotel may have to drive a bit further going to perhaps asheville or charlotte, north carolina because most of the rooms are taken up here in south carolina. megyn, back to you. >> jonathan, thank you. we'll be right back. moderate toe crohn's disease,... ...i was always searching for ways to manage my symptoms.

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cartels, militias, terrorist groups. they all need a place to park their cash and cherna is their dirty little piggy bank. we're going to insert into the country while nobody is looking. we're going to steal their money, sir? no, we are going to destroy it. we're going to finish this mission. anything we find is ours. do you want to trust a bunch of black water marks? i mean the rush, i've never felt anything like it. if we stay here we're going to die. then we die.

getting a lot of reaction to

our interview with dr. ezekiel emmanuel which we will post on our facebook page. and what do you think of his plan to raise the penalties on the young people who don't sign up? thanks for watching, everybody. i'm megyn kelly. this is the kelly file. see you tomorrow. tonight -- >> american people know we need to make a change. >> the race for the white house shifts after a very strong debate performance from governor mike pence. >> donald trump's running mate is here tonight in a hannity exclusive. >> my economic agenda will be very, very simple. jobs, jobs, jobs. >> then donald trump is back on the campaign trail ahead of his second showdown with hillary clinton this sunday. laura ingraham is here to weigh in. >> if you can't meet nixon standard -- >> i can't understand either one of you when you speak over each other. >> constantly interrupting