the spin stops here because we are definitely looking out for you. with 18 days until election day donald trump is preparing his closing arguments and in a big way. the polls may show signs of tightening up again. welcome to "the kelly file." i'm megyn kelly. hillary clinton holding a single event in ohio today. donald trump managed three stops, one rally in north carolina, two in pennsylvania. earlier today, he told the crowds he's leaving nothing to chance. watch. >> i'm working harder, too. i'm working harder. there's no doubt about it. i have three stops today. we have three of these today. we have three.

we're going to do this for another 19 days. right up until the actual vote of november 8th and then i don't know what shape i will be in and i will have known, win, lose or draw and i'm almost sure if the people come out we will win. >> is there reason to believe trump could win the race. we begin with our senior national correspondent john roberts reporting from newtown, pennsylvania, where donald trump just wrapped up his final rally of the day. >> good evening. you say is there a chance for trump to make a difference? he likes to say at his campaign rallies look at the uk and the

brexit vote. the polls showed the nos would win but the yeses won in the end. he believes he can do the same thing. a lot of early voting between now and then a, as well. tomorrow in gettysburg, pennsylvania, donald trump will begin to make his closing arguments. he will wrap together in one place, one speech all of the plans he says he has more america in the first 100 days of his presidency and what he will do beginning the day he walks in to office after taking the oath of office on the west front of the capitol. should he be lucky enough to win the presidency. here he gave us an idea of what will be in that agenda. let's listen. apparently we don't have that, so i will tell you what he will do. he l talk about tax reform, rebuilding military, repeal and replace obamacare, reduce

legislation, renegotiate trade deals get rid of the iran deal and renegotiate that, tax cuts five-point plan to reform ethics in washington and something new in the campaign trail saying in the department of commerce he create in the first days of his presidency a so-called america desk tasked with preserving american jobs and setting this playing field for american companies to flourish. tomorrow morning even a.m., we will see if he can turn around the poll numbers. a glimmer of hope, investors daily business poll has him one point ahead of hillary clinton but trails in 11 of the 16 so-called battleground states. >> real clear polling average went 1/10 in 1% of donald trump's favor today and it is very tight and her lead is pretty solid. watch this, even when hillary clinton's lead appeared to get to the point of insurmountable, donald trump has

been able to bounce back. for example, in early may, he was down 6.5 points to move ahead two weeks later. it happened again over the summer. in late june, the businessman was trailing former secretary of state by seven points. four weeks later, after the republican national convention, he was back in the lead. a similar story at the end of august. he trailed by six points. he had attacked the khan family, all 0 of that nonsense. after the democrat's convention. two weeks later it was a dead heat. today, hillary clinton is ahead, but just over 6% in the real clear politics average, of all polls, and the question now is whether trump can once again be the new comeback kid as we approach election day? larry sabato. he has done it.

larry he has done it at least three times if you want to look at tighter times, you can go back further than that. he's encountered for dead many times before and come back. is it possible between now and november 8th. >> anything is possible theoretically. i wouldn't bet on it. it is very unlikely. this is a sizable lead by hillary clinton. people say, oh, what's six points, polls turnaround quickly. this is the end of the campaign. we're at the end. the final phase. people have made up their minds. the vast majority of them have made them up solidly. they are not going to be switching certainly between clinton and trump. maybe a few two who switch back and forth between one of the major and minor party candidates but that's about it. don't forget about early voting, too. we have 3 to 4 million who have already voted and we will have 40% of the electorate having

voted before november 8th. >> do you agree? if you look at how trump has closed the gap he's done it in two weeks in the past. may 6th, clinton was up 6.5 and he took a lead. and then little longer june 28th and july 25th but not even a full month and once again took a lead from a 6.8% deficit. >> i think it is a little easier to make up a gap like that in may when people are trying to figure out what are the issues that matter to them, trying to get their heads around what the candidates stand for than by late october, when as larry mentioned a lot of people have made up their minds. nine out of ten supporters say in polls they will not change their minds. nine out of ten trump supporters say they will not change their minds. people are down in their bunkers about who they are voting for at this point that the slice of

people left that can be persuaded is very small. the way to persuade people is not to switch from lump to clinton but or clinton to trump. if he can hit like a laser the states where he needs to get 270. rallies are what he is best at. better than the democrats are. and there's the democratic machine and in in the republican primary he was overcome the turnout operation like v of folks like ted cruz. he has to make sure the rallies turn out a lot of people if he wants to energize supporters enough to make up the gap. i'm with larry. i think it is unlikely he's able to pull it off f. he does he has to focus like a laser on just the states he needs. >> one time he managed to close the gap was after september 11th when she collapsed. when she physically collapsed

and then her polls collapsed. does he need an event as big as that to turn it around at this point? >> as big or bigger and i'm not sure that would do it for some of the reasons kristin just mentioned. the undecided percentage, my guess it is two, three, four max. from experience, we know half of them won't vote. they are conflicted or not used to the voting procedures of those that vote the tradition is they break about in the same proportions as the electorate as a whole. so, no. i don't believe people are who intending to vote will vote at this point. i don't buy it. >> i have a question for both of you. i will ask larry first, what do you think is the moment that did it for trump, he surged and then fell back. what was it in your view? if this is how the election pans out, was there a moment? >> if you are going to pick moments in the general election,

you would start with the first debate and just about everybody agreed and certainly all of the random sample polls did that hillary clinton won that easily. she -- the second debate was closer. the third debate it was the controversy about whether or not he was going to acknowledge the vote once it had been cast. let's not forget about the "access hollywood" tape and other events that occurred after that. it is a combination of things, but it's basic party i.d. and we are leaning, the democratic leaning 0 of the new america. >> if you look at polls from over a year ago, it tended to show donald trump trailing hillary clinton by five points. this is, as larry mentioned a race that has been baked in for a long time. that democrats have a slight party advantage. donald trump needed a big moment to change things. after the conventions is the moment that would have been his chance, if he wanted to lock it

in and change the game but hillary clinton's post convention bounce lasted too long. he was unable to stop the momentum and things got solid from there. >> we shall see. he has surprised everyone before. great to see both of you. >> great to see you. new information on how the 2016 white house race could affect the balance of power in congress. joining us is the cohost of perino. people are starting to panic saying holy croakino. >> i'm so proud. i never thought i'd hear you say that. >> they are worried about a down ballot situation not as much as the house as the senate but the house, too. is that a real fear? >> getting to be. basically goes like this. for the house, it generally reflects what is happening at the top of the ticket.

the senate, as we have seen, individual republican senators like rob portman in ohio, have been able to rise above trump's poll numbers and outperform him in those states. they are feeling more confident about their chances to limit the democrats to fewer than four seats picked up and they might be able to hold on to the senate. on the house side you see more correlation with the national popular presidential vote. if that's the case the republicans have 3 a se0 seats e majority. if this falls apart, you would see that perhaps in danger. >> assuming they don't lose a net loss of 30, the republicans in the house and let's say they lose 20. but they still have the majority, do we care? how much of a difference kbuz does it make? >> that's one of the reasons republicans are going with the donald trump rigatoni recipe here that -- they are playing

along with this because they want voters to keep believing. if they lose five, six seats like happened in '88 and '86 for the losing party they have can handle it. if they talk about 20 it is not a functional majority anymore because republicans are chasing each other around with billy clubs and crushing each other's skulls open and then if hillary clinton wins she is facing no opposition, facing a majority in the house that can't block her because they can't agree. that would be the democratic hope. if they can't beat it grind it down to a number and leaf paul ryan unable to do anything but weep. >> what two senate races are you watching the most closely as the republican incumbent in the biggest danger of losing their seat. >> mark kirk in illinois is a lost cause. that's not going to happen. that's one. ron johnson in wisconsin looks tough. he has outperformed.

kelly ayott in new hampshire and pat toomey are the water line on the senate. if they can fight back, they are starting to feel downdraft. >> kelly ayotte is four points behind for the first time. >> they are losing some of their operation in the blue states as democratic voters and persuadable moderates turn against trump. that's where i'd say the water line is. >> great to see you. >> dig it. >> he is dig it and mckinnon is kick it and he is coming up later. charles krauthammer just announced how he is voting and is next with the news. michelle obama has been hitting trump hard on the campaign trail. today for the first time trump hit back. we will show you how in moments. and then we have new revelations from the hidden camera video of democratic operatives plotting to start trouble at trump rallies just ahead.

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a president can't just pop off or lash out irrationally. i think we can agree that someone who's roaming around at 3:00 a.m. tweeting should not have their fingers on the nuclear code. we all know if we let hillary's opponent win this election, than we are sending a clear message to our kids that everything they are seeing and hearing is perfectly okay. we are validating it. we are endorsing it. you do not keep american democracy in suspense. because, look, too many people have marched and protested and fought and died for this democracy. >> that is first lady michelle obama and a series of remarks from campaign appearances where she hit donald trump as dangerous for the country.

tonight for the first time trump is responding. >> we have a bunch of babies running our country, they are losers, babies. we have a president, all he wants to do is campaign. his wife all she wants to do is campaign. i see how much his wife likes hillary. but wasn't she the one that originally started the statement if you can't take care of your home -- right? can't take care of the white house as a country. >> joining me now attorney wolf, a trump supporter and fox news contributor julie roginski who is a democrat. people lost it when trump responded. there's a question whether he has accurately quoted michelle obama that we can get to. but let's start with whou, david, you don't attack michelle obama. she has huge approval ratings. don't go there. especially because you have a woman problem. was he out of line.

>> she can launch a barrage of verbal missiles at trump and he's spoessed to take it. no, there is going to be blow back as there always is. she is a well-spoken brilliant woman and insperted herself in to the political process on numerous occasion and when she goes after trump he will hit back. bill clinton's philandering and alleged sexual assaults, but assume the states were regarding child care. >> i want to thel them what we are talking about. >> sure. >> what she had said, this is back in 2007, michelle obama said one of the things, the important aspects of this race is role modelling what good families should look like. my view is if you can't run your own house you certainly can't run the white house.

she made similar comments on the stump in another appearance shortly thereafter where she expanded and said, so we've adjusted our schedule to make sure our girls are first. while he's traveling around, i do day trips. hence the confusion whether she was taking a shot at hillary or just saying this is how we do. >> it if you take her at her word, they are talking about how they are a new family to america and talking about how they manage their family and how they manage campaigning for president while being parents of two young girls. let's put that aside. i agree to this point, he has every right to attack michelle obama. >> fair game. >> of course. she inserted herself. she says not nice things about him. he is entitled to get back to

her. i don't think it is smart politics but -- >> why? >> she's the most popular figure. she is a woman. he has a woman problem and by going after her it brings up what she said about him. she's not a messenger he wants to reengage. her attacks on him, that's not good for donald trump. >> women wants to be treated equally. trump gets in toubl when he talks us sexual names. but when he attacks not on women terms but i don't like her or she's not smart. that's fair game. he can attack women. that is equality. >> it is the major leagues. assume that michelle obama was talking about putting her family first and politics second, i think the implication is hillary clinton puts her political ambition first and raising

chelsea second. that is even worse than the allegation of womenizing and philandering by bill. this is a shot at hillary clinton and not so much michelle obama. >> he was saying our country is being run by losers. we have a bunch of losers and babies running our country and then talked about the president and first lady. >> political correctness has ruined things. that's his bottom line. that's why he is saying it ain't going to happen anymore. i don't agree with the naysayers in the first two segments i believe this volatile campaign is flipping. just watch what happens in the last two weeks. >> the loser he is talking about won a presidential election two times in a row and that something donald trump will not be doing next month. and no one said that people said horrible things about hillary clinton, i don't think anyone said she was a bad mother. that's a new one to me. >> she is suggesting perhaps

that's how michelle meant it. >> i don't know about that. >> great to see you. newly leaked campaign e-mails raising questions about the clinton foundation and what was behind a multimillion-dollar donation from morocco. wait until you hear how much she got and she promised them, in exchange for what and how many favors will she owe if she gets in to office. charles krauthammer is announcing how he will vote this year. right after this break. it's not just a car, it's your daily retreat.

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18 days until the election and tonight new details are emerging on how some democratic operatives plotted to promote violence in trump rallies in an

attempt to make the republican nominee look bad. charles krauthammer is joining us with his take on the final leg of the election. but first the new revelations from a hidden camera video from project veritas and james o'keeffe. >> they have been criticized for videos that are highly edited, taken out of context or both. so tonight we focus on a question aaron black is asked about things that make impact, such as an older woman attacked at a trump rally. the question seems to give him an idea because he turns to his colleague and says this -- watch. >>. >> should we get people behind trump at a rally and make sure it is women and they are positioned next to men. we want images of the men bullying the women trying to hold their signs up.

that's what i'm going to do. that's what we are going to do. that's the hit. >> reporter: black goes on to explain how to bird dog, showing up early at rallies to agitate supporters from the front row. ted cruz is calling on the fbi to conduct a serious criminal investigation. former house speaker and former house speaker newt gingrich calls it willful effort to foemt violence to break up a presidential campaign and intimidate voters. >> democratic consultant who's been to the white house 342 times in the 35st eight years, including 45 meetings with the president himself. white house press secretary had no information about his trips to the white house, but said the president does not condone dirty tricks or inciting violence. remember shirley teeter, the

69-year-old woman on oxygen who made an impact claiming she was punched in the face by a 73-year-old trump supporter? first she said the man turned and cold cocked her. now tapes have been released she says he may have struck her accidentally. neither the clinton campaign or dnc commented on the project veritas videos. >> unbelievable. thank you. the election year has seen more than its fair share of scandals, controversies, ugly videos, like that. it featured brutal debates, crazy conventions and after all of that, after the non-stop drama we have seen every day for more than a year, new polling shows donald trump and hillary clinton are exactly where they were with the voters ten months ago. when it comes to likability, 40% view clinton positively and 42% view trump that way and the spread in the polls is where it was a ago ago, as well.

nothing as changed. did anything that happened this year matter? joining me fox news contributor and columnist charles krauthammer. good to see you. did any of it matter? >> in a sense i think this has been one of the worst years for american democracy in general. it's been one of the lowest, least elevating campaigns ever. we have not been enriched or enlightened by it. i think the reason things are the same is because we have never had two candidates who were better known at the beginning. name recognition way up there. probably in the 90s before they started. in other words, people oknew who they were and character is destiny. we have a year of them on the stage and they basically showed us their character, which is what we thought it was at the

beginning, untrustworthy, unfit in some cases, cynical, et cetera. and we are where we are. nothing is really changed in that respect, other than we've reached lows in tactics, in incivility that we didn't think we'd ever see at the presidential level. >> so you find yourself in a similar place to where you have been all along, as well. in your column this week saying you still cannot vote for donald trump. we're two weeks from the election. you say you can not do it. and you can not vote for hillary clinton. so you are going to write somebody in. who are you going to write in? why do you think that's the best choice? >> look, it's a question of conscience. the fact is i cannot vote for donald trump. i thought that on the day he announced. i said it that night. i said on "special report." i didn't think he was a serious candidate.

i got that wrong that he wouldn't be a factor but i think i got it right he is unfit for the presidency and never changed my mind on that. as to hillary, the dilemma i started out my column today in the "washington post" she is a cynical politician with an empty core of what her beliefs are supposed to be to extent she has them is conventional liberal which is a threat to the institution and you s the constitution. the oath of office for a judge is to swear not to recognize rich oar poor. this is overturning of the point of the law. >> if you were going to go by the polls, it would look like hillary will win. sh is considerably ahead. so what does the public do when someone -- as you point out in your column because you speak for a lot of people saying you

find her campaign soulless, all ambition and entitlement. it is emptiness at the core in her that makes every policy and position negotiable and politically calculatable. you felt validated in those beliefs by what you have seen in the wikileaks that show a lot of soullessness, somebody that didn't have a core message. how does the country come behind hillary clinton if she does win this? >> because she went through the process. that's the only reason. the process has to be elevated above everything else. look, i was not a barack obama supporter, but when he won the election in 2008, he was the president of all of us. i have been critical of him. that's how you end up where you end up. i preferred first african to be in condoleeza rice or someone else and felt a pride when he was sworn in that our country

came that far. she will have to earn whatever she gets but if she wins she will have earned the respect of the office when she is there. >> we will leave the audience in suspense and have you back at l after election day to find out what you did. great to see you. >> and how i swayed the vote. yes. >> all the best. >> both mr. trump and mrs. clinton went hard on their rival at last night's al smith dinner. how do you think the media covered that? howie kurtz is here with the answer. >> and with wikileaks e-mails we hear what difference it makes in the final 13 days. the circus next. hey! and bad for the barkley twins. take care of all your most important parts with centrum. upgraded to our most d3 ever. ♪

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work of the foundation continues without being any unthwart efforts on me and my service and be conscious of questions raised. >> that was hillary clinton at her senate confirmation hearings in 2009. trying to calm concerns about any conflict of interest with her work at the clinton foundation. now some newly leaked e-mails are suggesting there was reason for those concerns. as we learned she may have been personally responsible for securing a $12 million donation from the moroccan royal family, although it appears to have come after her tenure as secretary of state. >> hillary clinton in fact did line up this big contribution from the king. according to her own aide hue ma abedin she created this mess and knows it. she agreed to speak at an event in morocco.

they reported a $1 million contribution was going to stoke more controversy and they didn't want to do the event. the money was far bigger, 12 million bucks according to to abedin. in a new e-mail released today by wikileaks abedin wrote no matter what happens she will be in morocco may 5th to the 7th, 2015. her presence was a condition for the moroccans to proceed so there's no going back on this. it makes you wonder what the king was expecting in return beyond access. clinton state department charged them with human rights problems. she never answered that or this from chris wallace. >> why isn't it what mr. trump calls pay to play? >> everything i did as secretary of state was in furtherance of our country's interest and our

values. the state department said that. >> the moroccan event ended up led by bill and chelsea clinton. hillary clinton skipped it but lined up the contribution. the focus should be on the good work of the foundation and said abedin's e-mail should not be taken too literally. >> thank you. joining me with more the cohost of the documentary series "the circus" on show time and chief media adviser to president bush. good to see you. >> hi. >> not necessarily she violated the promise she made to the senate by working this while she was secretary but the point is the clinton foundation creates all sorts of conflicts for her. she is trying to line up a $12 million donation to the clinton foundation. she will be speak, i know it looks bad but i'm doing it. she sends bill and chelsea because it is an issue. what was the king expecting? if she is president how many favors will she owe?

they are not promising to shut down that foundation. >> no. in fact, this is just part of the problem. almost every day and the leaks are seeing new disclosures like this, the other day a discussion about a donation from qatar and a birthday present for mc. no clear answer on that. the only thing between now and election day that can have an impact is wikileaks. it's it and it can and will be. we know there's more to come. the ones that have come out haven't been answered. if donald trump will get the message and stay on the issue there's some opportunity here. >> i will challenge you on that. in trump's defense, he comes after the media hard. some of it is whiney. it is tough to run for president. you get hit. but some of it is legit.

the story of wikileaks has been ignored in so many corners, all but ignored in most. >> agree 100%. that's whief the title of the circus this week is russia with love. all on wikileaks. the whole program. we look at it from every angle. >> you hit harry reid it is all like russia is bad, russia is bad. what about the fact she called them needy latinos. nothing. >> we will talk about how the main stream media is doing what you said. he has 11 reporters on every day and nbc didn't say a word about it a week ago. >> where's the media? if the media wants to shine a light on something they can. take the "access hollywood" tape, which was huge, no question. i have a theory on it. we, as reporters, are lazy. if you don't make it easy to digest and spoon to the audience many of us will reject it as

food for the evening. >> i know from reporting we are doing this week because of the vacuum out there right now there are no debates. they are talking about this. some of the organizations we are with today have big stories coming out. tune in. >> really? >> they are on it now. >> last question. >> sure. >> how badly do you think that trump answer hurt him about not accepting the results of the election? >> the answer was problematic but the bigger problem it was such a story it dominated the next for the next couple of days. it was a good debate performance. a lot of opportunities where clinton was on the defense, but by going there instead of walking back like his campaign wanted to he walked it off the cliff and people are still talking about it. >> great to see you. >> you know what you have to do. >> kick it, kick it hard. >> that's right. >> check out the circus on show time. it's worth your time. donald trump took hits in the

press today. you are shocked, i know. for his attacks on clinton at the al smith dinner last night in new york. but mrs. clinton gave it back to him. you may not know that if you picked up any paper at all today. howie kurtz is next on how the media handled this one. it's easy to love your laxative... ...when that lax loves your body back. only miralax hydrates, eases, and softens to unblock naturally. so you have peace of mind from start to finish. love your laxative. miralax. and something amazing happens. that's our inspiration for fancy feast medleys. wild salmon primavera. tastes amazing. in gravy and pate. fancy feast medleys.

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from the world headquarters of fox news, it's "the kelly file" with megyn kelly. >> hillary accidently bump into me and she very civilly said, pardon me. this is the first time ever, ever that hillary is sitting down and speaking to major corporate leaders and not getting paid for it. we have learned so much from wikileaks, for example, here she is tonight in public pretending not to hate catholics. >> those are just a few of the jokes made by hillary clinton in his remarks in last eight's al smith dinner. the humor was supposed to be good natured and self dep are

indicating, i think the cardinal is saying i'm not eligible for saint hood, but getting through these three debates with donald has to be a miracle. people look at the statue of liberty and they see a crowd symbol of our history as a nation of immigrants, donald looks at the statue of liberty and sees a 4, maybe a 5, if she moves the torch and tablet and changes her hair. donald trump really is as healthy as a horse, a horse that vladimir putin rides around on. >> donald trump was heckled by the new york elite. nothing about her in the

headlines. npr declaring that trump turned the npr roast into a 3-alarm fire. personally i thought the statue of libertyind of funny. but the putin joke with the horse. and there were others where she got pretty cutting suggesting that barack obama wasn't going to get into any gathering of trump with the former president because of his muslim ban. maybe it was that they're not good at delivering jokes, like they're not funny. but you tell me whether this is biassed coverage. >> from watching the coverage over the last 24 hours you would have the impression that donald trump walked into st. patrick's cathedral and painted the stained glass windows. i didn't get to see it live and it's not a good thing when the republican nominee gets booed at a catholic charity dinner.

and i didn't think joking about hillary hating catholics was a good move, especially referring to references in the hacked e-mails between clinton advisors, but i didn't know until talking to people who were in the room that hillary clinton had some uncomfortable moments as well. >> we put a pundit on camera right after he was done, who went after trump, saying you were supposed to be self depricating. howie, the media, they're done with trump, and i get it, they're frustrated, they think he's this, they think he's that, but it's not their job to try and ruin him. >> i think there's so much hostility in so many corners of the main stream immediate yap against trump and we see this 1,000 different ways. but it's also classic behavior when a candidate is struggling and slipping in the polls, every

little misstep becomes a metaphor for how poorly he's doing. his limo got a flat tire, he's going nowhere. >> and what comes out of wikileaks, that could have been a game changer given that mind set. >> the drip, drip of this wikileaks disclosure has been embarrassing for hillary clinton and her campaign. the problem is some of it is complicated, it takes a while to explain, except this one about the $12 million donation from the president of morocco. but barring that, trump is always the story, most of it negative, but he's always driving the story, blots out what ordinarily would be hot disclosures against the clinton campaign. >> we'll be right back. (music playing)

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so in the average of all polls, trump is behind 6.2 percentage points now, do you believe he can turn it around in the next 18 days? thanks for watching "the kelley file" good night. welcome to hannity and tonight the race for the white house is in the final stretch and voters will be headed to the polls in just 18 short days, donald trump, he'll be here in just a minute with reaction, but first it's been a very big week in politics, the candidates faced off in their third and final debate in las vegas, and media lost their minds about donald trump's comments about not accepting the election results. although fox news cannot independently verify, very