6:00 a.m. with special iowa coverage, "fox & friends first" in the meantime continues right now, bye bye. rob: top democratic hopefuls locked in a dead heat, we will take you live to the hawkeye state where it is still anybody's game and speaking of 2020, is john kerry ready to throw his hat back follow the ring? jillian: former democratic nominee is responding to rumors of an 11th hour bid. >> they have done it, chiefs are super bowl champions here in miami. and the super bowl win more than 20 years in the making. rob: ended up being a great game, comeback victory crown kansas city chiefs your 2020 national champions, "fox & friends first" continues right

now. ♪ ♪ rob: you tried to make it through the game? jillian: it was a travel day, we were up for "fox & friends", fell asleep, i have a dvr, i will go back today and watch. rob: first time since i've been on the show i've watched the whole thing. jillian: seventh winning coach in history who did not have a super bowl until hours ago. rob: that court quarter, unbelievable twist, good morning to you, you're watching "fox & friends first" on this monday morning, i'm rob schmitt.

jillian: and i'm jillian mele, thank you for starting your day was, it is caucus day in iowa, 2020 democratic candidates making final push before iowans cast their first votes. >> i do have a nickname i want to give him, former, former president donald j. trump. >> our number one job to beat donald trump. >> i believe you will make me the next president of the united states and i will do everything to make you proud. rob: griff jenkins live in des moines where a tight race appears to be shaping for later tonight, hey, griff. >> good morning, that's right, first in the nation, up to iowa voters, they will gather at 7:00 p.m. central in 1,680 pri sinks, first they will stand in quarter of room for preferred candidate, if that candidate

doesn't reach 15% threshold they will have to make a second choice, they'll be the first expression, the final expression and the state delegate equivalency, the last one traditionally determined the winner, new calculation by the way may open the door for multiple candidates to claim some sort of victory but one thing is very clear and that is this is wide open, unpredictable, the winner is uncertain, of course, biden and sanders have been neck and neck on top of the most recent polls but pete buttigieg and warren have really had a lot of energy. we talk today warren supporters, here is what they said. >> i'm supporting elizabeth warren because of plans on justice reform. >> i love energy, she's the most organized candidate i've ever seen. >> i'm caucusing for tom steyer,

who is your second? >> elizabeth warren. >> i'm caucusing for amy klobuchar, i think foreign policy is a very important time but if she does not get 15% i will be caucusing for elizabeth warren. >> only time will tell, rob, as you were out here last week, you know the second choice may determine things, meanwhile you have warren, sanders and klobuchar won't even be at their own victory parties tonight because they are back in dc because of impeachment trials, we expect results coming after 10:00 p.m. tonight, although it certainly could go into tomorrow's coverage where you guys will be live. rob, jillian. rob: with the 15% mark in precincts with candidate could be about the second choice, griff, thank you so much, appreciate it. jillian: don't miss our "fox & friends first" coverage starting at 2:00 a.m. rob: heather childers from 2:00 to 4:00 and jillian and

i4:00 to 6:00 a.m. the senate will hold closing arguments in the impeachment trial on capitol hill today, the president is expected to be acquitted on wednesday. >> but as one investigation ends, republicans are gearing up to start their own, david live in washington, d.c. as fight against president trump appears to be wrapping up, david. >> hey, jillian and rob, home stretch for senators, they'll meet at 11:00 o'clock this morning to begin the closing arguments, they'll listen to legal teams from both sides of the argument and then will vote on articles of impeachment. they will declare guilty or not guilty to remove the president, 67 senators need to sign on for removal, but appears the math is just not there for that to become a reality. president trump at the white house after arriving late last

night after a weekend in florida, he sat down with sean hannity where democrats were top of mind. >> they don't care about fairness and lying, look at the reports that were done that were so false, i think they just want to win and doesn't matter how they win. >> even though the president is expecting an acquittal on wednesday, republicans won't forget what began the call for impeachment, they want to hear directly from the whistleblower, senator lindsey graham expect the senate intelligence committee to call the whistleblower in for questioning. now iowa republican senator has taken a step further, she says if joe biden is elected president, he better watch out for impeachment, she said the bloomberg, quote, joe biden should be very careful what he's asking for because, you know, we can have a situation where if it should ever be president biden, people right after would be elected will be saying, well, we are going to impeachment, end quote, biden responded over the weekend in her home state of iowa.

listen. just pointed out that iowan voters are very smart, so why don't they all show, show how smart you are by caucusing for me. >> biden's opponents, bernie sanders, amy klobuchar, michael bennett all back for closing arguments as griff said later this morning all kicks off at 11:00 o'clock behind me on capitol hill. jillian, rob. >> live in washington, thank you for that update, david. now this fox news alert, americans stranded in epicenter of deadly coronavirus outbreak will be brought home. >> we have more flights that will be heading to china to bring americans back home from -- from province, we anticipate that they will happen in the next handful of days and we will return those american citizens, we may end up well bringing citizens back from other countries as well. >> the virus has killed at least 361 people with more than 17,000

infected, china central bank pumping in $173 billion by lowering interest rates to stabilize financial markets, new u.s. travel restrictions now in effect, denies entry for any foreign national who visited china in the last 14 days and u.s. citizens who travel to china province will need to be quarantined for 2 weeks, there are 11 cases now in the u.s., the latest 3 cases coming from california. rob: manhunt underway after a pregnant woman is killed in drive-by shooting, died in milwaukee hospital after party bus was hit with gunfire, baby boy was delivered during emergency c-section and now being incubated, police say it's unclear if the bus was the target of this attack and there have been no arrests, family is begging the shooter to turn themselves in as they held a vigil of mother of 5, dna evidence tieing teen suspect to college student's murder is is

inconclusive. however, officials still plan to present it for consideration in the murder trial in march, majors was stabbed and killed after allegedly being attacked near a park in new york last summer. >> today the woman accused of smashing her car through the gates of mar-a-lago is expected to face a judge and room reportedly and opera singer facing several charges including assaulting an officer, despite having antitrump posts on social media. officials believe it was not politically motivated. rob: let's talk football, kansas city chiefs with thrilling fourth-quarter comeback, first championship in 20 years.

jillian: todd piro with the biggest moments of historic super bowl sunday. they did it. >> we were projecting a good game. giving him first super bowl victory in 20 years as a head coach, congrats to andy, late in the fourth, damián william taking the short pass from patrick mahomes. goal line to give the chiefs lead 24-20, jimmy garoppolo, needing a touchdown this doesn't help the cause, giving the ball back to chiefs and setting up this, the nail in the 9ers coffin, williams again, this time no doubt about it run from 38 yards out and the chiefs are champs once again.

>> i'd coach another 20 years if i could have that group right there, they are a beautiful bunch, tough-mined as you saw tonight. i'm so proud of him. >> mahomes didn't have a clean game but performed when it mattered most, honoring this coach. >> one of the greatest coaches of all time, i don't think he needed a lombardi trophy to prove that but just to do that, i mean, it puts all doubt aside. president trump even tweeting congratulations to kansas city chiefs on a great game and fantastic comeback under a immense pressure; we are proud of you in the great state of missouri, you are true champions but game wasn't the only show, jennifer lopez and shakira lighting up with half-time performance, that really had everything from nice tribute to kobe bryant, there it is right there, to j.lo's boyfriend alex

rodríguez taking it all in on video selfie to this moment, this was wild, lópez and her daughter performing together, shakira was on drums, a lot, it was pretty wild, guys, back to football, if you're worried about going into football withdrawal, do not fear, the exfl kicks off and watch. jillian: i did see patrick mahomes touchdown. he's unstoppable, he's really good for 24 year's old. >> he's the face of the nfl going forward. i know we all like to talk about tom brady but patrick mahoems has a career ahead of him. rob: thanks so much, appreciate it. 12 minutes after the hour. jillian: usually i take your read. democratic caucuses in iowa have perfect track record for predicting party's nominee, would that be the case this time around with candidates in dead heat can anyone break the streak, presidential historian joins us live next.

rob: nfl fans can't escape tom brady even when he's not playing in the super bowl, message and ad that calmed the nerves of patriots nation. jillian: he punked us he wanted a man cave in our new home. but she wanted to be close to nature. so, we met in the middle. ohhhhh! look who just woke up! you are so cute! but one thing we could both agree on was getting geico to help with homeowners insurance. yeah, it was really easy and we saved a bunch of money. oh, you got it. you are such a smart bear! call geico and see how easy saving on homeowners and condo insurance can be.

rob: who just wraps up a jam-packed weekend, all of them did frankly packed with campaigning across the first in the nation states. jillian: hawkeye state democrats hold near perfect track record, can the same be said this time around, joining us live for history lesson doug. >> good morning, jillian, rob, good to see you. jillian: if we take a look here going back only twice have they gotten it wrong, so with that being said, do you think that

the candidates actually feel the pressure of that? >> i think they do, i mean, iowa is so big, it's fun, i interviewed jimmy carter about it, he started it all, that was 1975 at the jefferson jackson day fundraiser, they had a straw pulled, of course, the democrats now disowned the founders of their own party thomas jefferson and andrew jackson because they are slave owners but they had a big straw pull, pulled upset, cover of time, cover of newsweek, won the iowa caucus a few months later in 1976 and ever since that's been the path to the presidency for the democrats. rob: since '76 they have done pretty well, for republicans picks nominee it hasn't been as good, if you look back at 2016 they had ted cruz winning in iowa and that was about all the more damage he did, he had rick santorum and mike huckabee in

2008, not nearly as successful for the republicans why do you think that is, iowa a pretty split state, they should have finger on the polls? >> quite anomaly, you can't win with it, you can't win without it in iowa, if you're like julie, bloomberg is testing that, you don't even go to iowa, you're out, you can't win the presidency but in 1980 ambassador bush beat ronald reagan for the caucus and in 1984 vice president george h.w. bush lost to robert, senator robert dole but went onto win the presidency, that was the stillbirth almost of the bush dynasty, february 8th, 1988 when the vice president came in third place, i walked george w. thank bedroom and read to him from the bible, went down there to the bar; there was laura bush saying any chance, her dad was going resign from politics but the next week he won new hampshire and won the nomination.

jillian: quite a story, i'm sure you have many of them. >> many. jillian: let's talk about the voters in iowa, the opinions that matter because when you look at the democratic party you have the far-left socialist, the moderate democrats, there's a split there and polls say one thing as you know, polls will change, what do you think this is going mean for the rest of the country as far as opinion goes? >> yeah, that's very astute jillian, that's the thing, launching pad for candidates, that's what it did for jimmy carter and it's so interesting that the people of iowa, funnest stories is of eric trump, i wrote this book inside trump's white house and i interviewed the whole family and eric, great line, he says in the car he will give a speech there, he says, hey guys, what's a caucus. here is the family that was in business but not in politics and the iowans like authenticity.

rob: wall street journal reporting that a surprising number of people haven't made up their mind on this process yet maybe the democrats don't know who has the best chance of beating president trump, that might be part of the problem, doug, thank you so much. jillian: thank you. >> thanks, jillian. jillian: 20 minutes after the hour, this was amazing, demi lovato bringing down the house with rendition of national anthem. rob: jay z and beyonce under fire after video surfaces sitting during national anthem, carley shimkus is here with the reaction from social media this morning stay tune. ers

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jillian: super bowl starting on a very patrick note as dem demilovato with rendition. watch this. ♪ ♪ jillian: gives me chills. rob: she has some pipes but not everyone appeared patriotic during the performance, carley shimkus with fox news headlines siriusxm 115 who was caught maybe not -- >> not everyone was standing

during patriotic performance there, jay z and beyonce were seen seated, you can see pictures of them right here, tmz captured video of them remaining seated during the national anthem. the couple becoming topic of conversation on social media, one twitter user writing, i'm so ashamed of beyonce and jay z, they are so fortunate to live in country, they need to go somewhere else. did they stand for j.lo, debbie on twitter praising the performance, wonderful pregame brought tears, glad they finally brought it right. jay z signed deal, there you have it. >> this was potentially one of my favorite things. cryptic black and white photo last week on social media that had everyone wondering what it meant, now we know.

>> they say all good things must come to an end, for me, i'm not going anywhere. [laughter] carley: tom brady officially addressing retirement rumors during super bowl commercial for hulu streaming service and twitter going absolutely nuts, this twitter user says, patriots fan here, he almost gave me a heart attack, another twitter user saying he's not playing, tom brady wins the super bowl, but ben on twitter, we finally get a super bowl without tom brady and you guys have to do this, it is so funny, he wasn't in the super bowl but being honored before the game and during this commercial that you're right, jillian, explain the black and white instagram picture that went viral last week and everyone was talking about him on social media even though he wasn't playing on the field. jillian: that was funny. carley: hilarious way to handle the retirement. rob: j.lo is 50 year's old, age doesn't mean anything.

jillian: what are they drinking. rob: 26 minutes after the hour, the senate on track to acquit the president on wednesday, so all of this impeachment, the senate trial is this a fail for the democrats or can they spin this in their favor? our panel on deck to debate that coming up. jillian: 2020 iowa caucuses will be decided tonight, pete hegseth live in hawkeye state checking the pulse of the people

rob: welcome back fox news alert, americans stranded in epicenter of deadly coronavirus outbreak will be brought home. secretary of state mike pompeo making the announcement overnight, new u.s. travel restrictions in effect denying entry to any foreign national who visited china in the last 2 weeks and american citizens who travel to china province will be quarantine, there are 11 cases confirmed of the u.s., china denouncing the move it goes against world health organization guidance. >> the senate will reconvene this morning for closing arguments in the president's impeachment trial, both sides will have a combined 4 hours to make their case before a final vote on wednesday, president trump is expected to be acquitted. rob: and californians can start casting their ballots today,

early voting officially kicking off in the golden state with all those delegates one month ahead of its march third primary, the state's latest polls show senators warren and sanders also former vice president joe biden all racing for the lead in california. jillian: but right now all eyes are on iowa, the caulk as as the first in the nation state holds the first cast of the 2020 presidential race today. rob: pete hegseth in iowa before tonight. >> you can't go far without seeing campaign bus somewhere here, we are in urbandale outside of des moines, in 100th corner street cafe, come on out this morning, we are talking to caucus goers in iowa, fresh off our trip from miami and super bowl great game last night, everyone talking about what will happen tonight and really comes

down to national narrative is pretty correct, will it be bernie sanders, will it be joe biden or someone else see a surge as everyone goes to their second pick, you know, we happened to stay at hotel with a lot of joe biden campaign surrogates and i was speaking to one last night and they feel that this is a referendum over the soul of the democrat party, is the democrat party going to go with socialism and hard left bernie sanders or will they sort of return to normal, that's the phrase i heard time and time again from the campaign surrogate, do folks want balance back in the country from their point of view, so their campaign says battle for the soul of the nation but what it represents battle for the soul of the democrat party, joe biden was in iowa obviously yesterday in front of a crowd, a couple hundred people, here is part of the closing argument he's makin.

>> we need, we need, we need. pete: former vice president is making an electability argument; in many ways trying to connect with older voters who he thinks are more reliable caucus goers, although his events, only a couple hundred people when you contrast with bernie sanders yesterday who had over 3,000 people in cedar rapids and sort of a party atmosphere, so those two going definitely but everyone talking about president trump, who can beat him, how bad of a guy they think he is, here is the president responding, he spoke with own sean hannity in pregame of the super bowl, a portion of how he's talking about the democrats on the eve of the iowa caucuses. >> we have little nick neighbors for all of them but -- but they

are accurate, you look at sleepy joe, what's going on with him, he's having a hard time. you look at bernie, i call him crazy bernie. they are rigging it against him. pete: the other is little mike, it'll be interesting as we talk to voters what's really on their minds this morning. rob: bloomberg's big moment will be super tuesday. jillian: but that's not stopping democrats from plotting their next move. >> i still city it's enormously important that the president was impeached by standing up to this president as we have, by making the case to the american people

by expoing his wrongdoing, we are helping to slow the momentum away from our democratic values. jillian: is there any way for democrats to turn before election, sasha burns and republican -- >> somebody has to watch the fox in the hen house, the best that you get is the senators trying to cover their tracks because they know more information is coming out, they say, yes, the house proved their case, yes, we know the government says that withholding aid is illegal, you know, he's a crook, our crook and we are sticking with him, better than trump's version which is playing the victim card, you know, persecuted, the dems are so mean, he ought to just for a tough guy, east u awfully whiney, just say yeah, i did it.

jillian: joseph, you want to chime in ear? >> democrats should paid promises made, promises broken, they sat here and told american that is they had evidence of collusion with russia, turns out they didn't, they turned out and said that they were going rid america of donald trump's presidency, we have 30 american who is are still calling donald trump as commander in chief. we are talking about 6 million americans that are jobs today that didn't have them when president trump took office, we are talking about americans who were concerned about security, president trump has made this country safer than it was they took office and when we had president obama who was asleep at the wheel for 8 years when it comes to foreign policy, those are the things that we should be talking about, they'll be voting from their kitchen-table issues. jillian: isn't necessarily how they vote in november, let's take a look at recent polling, should the president be impeached and removed from office and you can see the country is still pretty split

there with 49% saying no, by the way, this is an nbc news poll, what do the numbers say to you, issua? >> the numbers are about the same, goes back to he's our crook but we will keep him, i like his policies, i like judgeships, to me, if you're going to do, say you're going to do. jillian: do you like his policies? >> no, i don't like his policies. >> you don't like everything that joseph rattled off, unemployment numbers are great, you don't like the fact that the economy is doing well, that the stock market is great, you don't like a lot of those things that are going on? >> of course, do i, we could get into a long economic discussion about how the economy is doing great because we are taking the deficit to a trillion dollars which republicans used to care about, i mean, you know, people know if you get a bunch of credit cards you look rich but you to pay it back at some point. jillian: joseph, final word to you. >> the democrats are committing

i think in november democrats will be crying as they were 4 years ago. jillian: we will certainly be here to watch it all, sasha and joseph. >> i guess we will see. jillian: have a good day. rob: 39 minutes after the hour and a super bowl stunner. >> where i can be myself. that feels pretty darn good. rob: the ladies were crying over this one, hollywood heart throb jason mamoa with transformation, the super bowl ad that has a lot of people talking. jillian: where lawmakers are now pedal to the metal on a proposal to name part of a highway after.

rob: welcome back, overflight police searching multiple homes, the 20-year-old was released early from prison on terror-related charges, police say he wore a fake explosive vest and stabbed two innocent people before being shot dead, the victims thankfully are expected to survive and today the uk is expected to propose tougher rules on terror convicts. al-qaeda claiming responsibility for the deadly shooting at the pensacola naval air station, the terror group's branch in yemen admitting to attack in video, member of saudi air force in training killing 3 sailors before he was shot dead, the video released as president trump hinted to the death of group's top leader, however, the death is not officially

confill watch out for that. jillian: as the coronavirus fear spreads, a family refunding norwegian, $32,000 on the trip, it was booked one year ago, they want to cancel because the asian crews includes a stop in hong kong. >> it's getting worse every day. i just want to be safe and i don't want to go in the direction of the virus. jillian: the trip insurance does not cover epidemics. interesting. highway could soon be named after president trump, two republicans proposing to be named donald j. trump, resolution is currently in committee. rob: all right, you know, i saw you guys, you were out there

with the gators and the swamp, you were flying in the chopper over the skyline, what a weekend you two had? >> i mean, we did it all. rob: kind of a girl's weekend. >> we do have stories. rob: i assumed every time janice goes on vacation -- jillian: there were stories. janice: and let's talk about the weather. such a great transition. so lucky i get to do that, current temperatures, not too bad out there, let's focus on iowa because, you know, the weather sometimes can effect voter turnout, look at the past 24 hours, little bit of snow across portions to have rockies and lake-effect snow, otherwise a very quiet weather pattern that will change by the way in the next week or two, we will could see winter-like storms in the northeast, let's take a look at iowa as people are, of course, heading to iowa caucuses and there's really no reason for folks not to get out there and vote because the forecast looks

spectacular, seasonal temperatures in the 30's, mostly sunny skies, no precipitation, this is a great forecast for voting. rob: it really is. jillian: okay. janice:ly share some stories later on. [laughter] rob: in commercial break. janice: check out instagram. rob: all right, janice, thank you so much. jillian: call it a battle of the billionaires. >> when i heard mike was stepping into the ring, i thought now we have a dog in the fight. >> i'm afraid to start over. i want to thank donald j. trump. rob: the president and michael bloomberg spending big bucks to get message out, which ad scored big with voters.

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>> i'm just going to throw out a name, whatever comes to your mind, michael bloomberg. >> very liting, i think it's unfair for the democrats but i would love to run against bloomberg. i would love that. jillian: president trump says he's ready to take on michael bloomberg at the polls and on your tv screen. rob: both campaigns releasing high-priced super bowl ads but did they resinate with voters? >> joining us with america's reaction author of persuasion, convincing others when facts don't seem to matter, president and partner at maslansky +

partners lee carter. >> usually as soon as trump goes out there democrats dial down, bloomberg relatively unknown but not popular with republicans and he did pretty well across the aisle. rob: let's check out the first one. ♪ >> i'm free to hug my family, i'm free to start over. this is the greatest day of my life, my heart is just bursting with gratitude. i want to thank president donald john trump. [cheers and applause] >> thank you, thank you. >> i'm donald trump and i approve this message. jillian: we should notice it's alice johnson who kim kardashian helped to facilitate her getting

released. >> you can see republicans and independents b and democrats a c plus. what i was surprised about the ad because it was powerful ad, even once they mentioned the name, the democrats stayed pretty positive, this is a very good moment for the president, it definitely did what it was trying to accomplish, touting accomplishments but really showed that he had issues that were bipartisan that we could all come together on and that's exactly what he accomplished. rob: second ad here, we will talk about, mike al bloomberg, big gun violence super bowl ad, if you're thinking about the super bowl, the energy of the super bowl, everybody is in a good mood, everyone was sad, let's take a look. >> lives are being lost every day, it is a national crisis. i heard mike bloomberg speak, he's been in this fight for so long. when i heard mike was stepping into the ring, i thought, now we have a dog in the fight. i know mike is not afraid of the

gun lobbyist s, they should be. no one has the right to take hopes and dreams. rob: this played better than some people would. >> i would say, democrats an a, now gun control is a really popular issue among independents and democrats and not all that surprising, although you could see that it definitely stayed up there with them and republicans are pretty much okay with it, i'm not sure it did anything to move any republicans and i'm not sure what this would do ultimately to change them, bloomberg is known for gun control, i think the job that he needs to do show that's he's more than that and what he will do for the country, that was an introductory ad for a lot of folks but not sure that it would do a lot in the long run. jillian: good to see you. rob: 53 minutes after the hour, the kansas city chiefs lit the sports world on fire. jillian: the fan who is actually set himself ablaze, we are

coming right back on a monday morning. ♪ ♪ .

jillian: good monday morning, welcome back. john kerry blasting a report claiming he is considering a late one for president. ax reported that an analyst heard him on the phone talking about a bid in the iowa hotel lobby because he was concerned about rising support for bernie sanders. the former secretary of state tweeting, quote: i am absolutely not running for

president. any report otherwise is categorically false. that tweet originally had an explicative that has since been deleted. the former secretary of state has been campaigning for joe biden. rob: president trump determined to push a message of unity and optimism at tomorrow's state of the union address. >> any thought to delay the state of the union. >> no, no. we are going to talk about the achievements that we have made. nobody has made achievements like we have made. some different things. i'm so proud of what we have done. rob: meanwhile house democrats gearing up to stage protest. already stating they won't attend the big speech. working group encouraging women to wear white for the second year in a row. watch out for that. jillian: time for the the good, the bad, and the ugly. super bowl edition. first up the good. a tim fluff beats team trough win puppy bowl 16. >> corrupt has got it. he scores. touchdown. but rocky road follows suit.

touchdown. i have never seen anything like this. jillian: team fluff scoring back to back winning the game 63-59. all the puppies are up for adoption. rob: i lost all my money. celebrating the chief's big win in a really stupid way. >> here we go. jillian: sneakers on fire. rob: stop drop and roll. ball of flames setting his feet on fire. unclear if he was seriously hurt. i bet he needed new shoes. >> finally the ugly. fans are freaking out over a super bowl ad featuring jason thafeaturingmamoa. >> at home where i can be myself. that feels pretty darn good. >> shows him getting comfortable at home taking off muscles and hair piece revealing as the anat so aqua man. this is terrible and people

saying it is hilarious. must be twitter bots. i haven't laughed that hard at a commercial in a long time. rob: too funny, too weird. iowa caucuses tonight. "fox & friends" starts right now. ♪ win, win, win ♪ no matter what ♪ got money on my mind ♪ [cheers] steve: i have waited 50 years. the team in red. and i grew up watching the kansas city chiefs in the fourth quarter just to make it exciting they finally beat the 49ers. it was a nail biter and patrick mahomes chiefs mvp. is he going to diz world todadisney worldtoday. ainsley: they were losing going into the fourth quar