[reporter question] >> we have one, i have no knowledge of the department of homeland security making that offer to us. i will say that we have worked with saber to security experts, nationally renowned cyber security experts to test this app and do testing and security checks on this app. so we took the steps we felt were necessary but we found a coding error last night and we found some irregularities as the results started. [reporter questions] >> what's that? [reporter question] >> no, there weren't. and that is why what happened last night was simply

unacceptable. again, we are going to have a thorough and independent review of exactly what happened last night. right now we are in the process of making sure we get these results out and that is what we are going to stay focused on. >> reporter: donald trump has suggested that the system is rigged. how do you combat that? how do you assure americans? >> we have said all along that we are going to make these caucuses the most transparent possible. this year we are reporting out more data than we ever have reported before. in addition to that we have paper trails that we have never had before. were going to take the time we need to verify these results but these results are being based off what happened in the precincts last night. >> reporter: are you feeling pressure to step aside? >> when i ran for chair i made a commitment to see the caucus process through. that is what i'm working on, that is what i will continue to work on.

whatever happens after that is to be determined. anyways, thank you all, folks. the results are coming in. we will see you later. >> dana: you were just looking at the iowa democratic chair trying to explain the debacle in des moines, iowa, last night. we have "the five." we are all going to get to come, you'll hear from katie pavlich, juan williams, jesse watters, greg gutfeld and myself but let's first bring in bret baier and martha. bret baier and martha maccallum will break it all down for us. what did you just hear? it was a little bit of an apology and a promise there will be a review and that you can be assured the results they are going to present to us are accurate. >> bret: they were saying it is unacceptable and he's going to get to the bottom of it. it will put out 62% of the vote. you will see this on your screen once we get the actual vote from the iowa democratic party. at that point the fox news decision desk is going to make a

decision whether we can make a stipulation of where everybody came in. third, second, third, fourth, based on what we had going in and the raw vote total they dumped at this hour. >> martha: this is a very unusual situation in the campaigns are weighing in with the numbers they believe they have. they have their own apps and counting people at all of the precincts across the state of iowa. raise yourself for what could be a battle over these numbers, because it is clear they may not line up perfectly with what the candidates think is fair. joe biden's team already said last night they would consider some form of legal action if they feel like the numbers aren't on the up and peered a lot riding on that, gentlemen. these numbers roll out. >> dana: we are going to keep you there in the studio next door. let's take you to "the five" in new york. we are in d.c. let me start there, look at these fine people.

jesse watters, juan williams, katie pavlich, greg gutfeld. let me start with you, general thoughts is this all went down last night. we were there in a very quiet convention center waiting for results. we never got them. >> greg: i know. this was the democrats' first day of school and they showed up in their underwear. then they proceeded to throw up on everybody. i think everybody has had that nightmare and they've got a whole they've got to dig themselves out of. i have a thing like greg gutfeld's law. would you like to hear it? republicans run things. democrats ruin things. and one difference is the letter, which for four years stood for "impeachment." they were so concerned about an outside phantom, they were unaware that the phone call was coming from inside their own house. they had four years to figure this out and they didn't. they should've listened to joe biden and learn how to code because this is so embarrassing.

it shows democrats can't run anything. they can't run cities, websites. cars for clunkers. puerto rico disaster relief. they can't run anything. >> dana: well, look, it is absolutely embarrassing and you have the chair they are trying to say -- well, he did say he was sorry but this is a big debacle. >> jesse: apology not accepted. i don't think that guy exuded confidence. maybe i'm wrong. i just didn't buy what he was slinging. i actually can't believe i'm going to say this, i've never said it before. >> dana: you feel sorry for them? >> jesse: i feel sorry for democrats. i do. i feel sorry for the voters in iowa because elections are supposed to be fun. it's supposed to be a great night and they got robbed. they got robbed by a crooked firm. it literally the firm that did the app was run by hillary clinton staffers. they didn't need the app and the app didn't work.

they got paid to roll the app out anyway and they're laughing all the way to the bank because they still get to keep the money. they didn't vet it. they say they tested it, they didn't roll it out by department of homeland security and then they said, oh, dhs and never offered. we will see about that because i bet there is a paper trail for that. greg is right. this is why trump was elected. because powerful people don't deliver results for the american people. and democrats, above everything else, they have to be competent and they have to be more competent because their entire agenda is, put us in charge. let us control your health care, your food, your energy, your car, your lifestyle, because we know how to do it better than you. it went something like this happens and they face plant, that destroys their entire brand. and i am sick of hearing the mainstream media mock trump

supporters for being dumb hillbillies. they can't read a map, they can't even read! making fun of donald trump misspelling something on twitter, and they go out and they do something so catastrophically stupid, it blows up their entire brand of these brilliant, sophisticated leaks -- >> dana: okay, okay. >> jesse: that understand technology appeared republicans don't believe in science but these guys have it all under control. please. >> dana: it was the mainstream media that was actually amongst of the most critical. at one because they were furious. they wanted the result but also because they spent all that time burning money covering this campaign, then you get to the big night, you don't get any results and now, even though the chair says all of this is going to be accurate and assured and the integrity of the election is of utmost importance, do you think it will actually be able to convince people of that? >> juan: how come i think this was an unmitigated disaster.

a disaster for all the good people of iowa who came from the gym or the firehouse or the schoolhouse to caucus last night. and it is a wonderful exercise in america democracy. i've been there and i can tell you those people are so proud and have got to believe they are so hurt by what happened. a terrible thing. to what greg and jessie were saying, i've got to say it's a pretty good talking point, that stuff about the democrats now, how carust them with health care? i get it, i think that really works with the trump base although i still think i haven't seen anything on health care coming from president trump and the republicans, because they had all the replays and repeal votes. but the key to me is all the conspiracy theories and the division among democrats. who does this help? who does this hurt? what we are going to get in a few minutes is only come according to the iowa democratic party, only 60% of the results. there are still going to be arguments about who was helped, which cities, which sites did this come from anchor to be the

remaining 45% would change the results? >> dana: we have the remaining results. if you could share with us what we know? >> bret: 62%, you're seeing this on the screen. here the precincts were in. a slight lead of pete buttigieg over bernie sanders. elizabeth warren in third and joe biden back at under 16% and forth. amy klobuchar at 13% in these early numbers. let's just be sure we understand this is 62% of the precincts. this is not the whole picture and this could change as we get more of not only the real vote total but also what her decision desk is going to look at going in with our voter analysis. >> martha: we want to keep an eye on the counties and get a feel for which counties are still out there and where those counties are and how they might impact the remaining movement of these votes as we take a look. but clearly a good night for pete buttigieg anyway you stretch it. even if he ends up in second

place and bernie sanders in first place, and that could happen as the rest of these numbers come in. he claimed victory last night. he got a lot of heat for it and it did feel like he jumped the gun given the situation as it was unfolding but clearly he has performed well here. no doubt, he's in new hampshire as he's moved on to campaign. >> bret: of the sanders numbers they put out today say he is going to pull this out in the end at about 30% over pete buttigieg at 24%. they are going by their precinct captains and their internal vote count. we can't confirm that but looking at these numbers, at 62%, you realize how lucky joe biden was last night to get out of there because he is fourth. fourth. the former vice president of the united states, who now heads into new hampshire where bernie sanders is running strong. >> dana: martha, do you know what the voter turnout was customer that was one of the questions last night.

if the turnout was more like 2016 than it was in 2008 that that didn't sound too good for the democrats. do we know a thing about that from these numbers? >> bret: they are still staying with 2016 right now. that is not a good numbers for democrats over all. may be better for mayor pete buttigieg than it is for sanders. sanders would've benefited from the 240, the barack obama year number. 240,000. but it looks closer to 2016, 170,000. >> martha: if that holds when we get the full look at this i think that is one of the big story lines here as well. it begs the question, is there a candidate who is really driving this race on the democrat side and exciting people to get out and vote and participate in all of this? they were really expecting blowout numbers, that they might even surpass the number in 2008 for president obama, which is about 240,000, so that is something to watch for the closely and we will see if it changes as we get the rest of

these numbers. >> bret: one more thing, the amy klobuchar campaign thinks there numbers show them neck and neck with joe biden in fourth and maybe even overtaking him. again, the rest of these presents we have to watch closely. >> dana: the joe biden campaign was setting low expectations yesterday afternoon then this might be explain why. katie pavlik, we haven't had a chance to hear from you. last night, mayor pete, this is 62%, and 26%, he's in the lead. the line that really got everybody's eyes wide, when this is all uncertain and he said, we have turned an undeniable hope and it became an improbable victory. it just felt premature but maybe he knew something. >> katie: he either knew something or took the opportunity while everyone is sitting around trying to fill air time while we are waiting for the results. 62% is still a d. it is 2% away from a failing grade and the question i think

the democratic voters who made the effort to go out and caucus to their candidate and maybe change their mind and went over to somebody else is how are we supposed to trust these results? the chairman didn't come out and say anything about the details of what happened. he said there were irregularities bear that begs the question about more explanation about what happened, where did the money go, why is it that a party that is worried about election meddling from russia from the last three years didn't take homeland security's offer, which they say was on the table to vet the app and the fiber concerns they had going into the caucus. there are going to be a lot of questions rather than answers and when it comes to independent and thorough investigation, who was going to do the investigation and how long is that going to keep democrats, people to flying out to and claiming victory? >> dana: you had a quick thought? >> juan: the thing about iowa

is it is politics but it is also media. it's the balance you get coming out of iowa. that balance should've been there this morning. just based on the numbers we've seen this morning that have pete buttigieg and bernie sanders in the lead, they're not going to get that big bounce. if they have lost a tremendous opportunity in this moment. we've got state of the union tonight, we've got the vote for acquittal in the impeachment of our beer those of the headlines and when you get that media balance it leads to donors and money. pete buttigieg clearly outperformed. he will get something but i think a lot of democrats who ran and put their heart and i a while, i'm amy klobuchar. they really got ripped off. >> dana: i wish i could remember where i saw this, because i would like to give them credit but i will just repeat it come on twitter, congratulations, it caught my eye, that this is really a win for socialists last night because everybody walked away with the victory. >> greg: i think i said that

said that. >> dana: okay i will give you credit for it. >> greg: i didn't say that, but it's true. everyone went home with a trop trophy. but juan is right. it's completely deflated. to dana's point, we had a party that was sowing the seeds of doubt about our voting system so in a weird way it kind of got what they wanted to their own obsession over russia and their own incompetence. now who are they going to blame customer at the electoral college or trump or the russia russians? meanwhile as jesse points out, the company, shadow inc., what a great name. it was linked to clinton, and you could make a lot of money if you sell something like a clinton detector. it's like a smoke or carbon monoxide detector and he just wave it in all the rooms and it can detect a colorless, odorless gas and you could just fire those people, it really is

mocking the outsiders versus the insiders. if your member when they took shape in 2016 those jokes were always about how stupid the outsiders were beer they were hiring terrible people, making awful mistakes. now you have these political pros and they can't do it. big winner here is bernie. bernie is there trump. i would not joke about him getting the nominee and i would say he's going to be the strongest person against trump because he galvanized the distaste and dislike for all the people, all the insiders and elitists. the same way trump galvanized it on the right. he's going to do it on the left and you're going to say, i think it is going to be sanders-trump. >> dana: i was going to mention, one of the things i read this week is from jonathan chase and he said in 2016 there was that populist fervor. some brainy people said they voted for president trump because they were so mad about

what happened to them and the dnc and all the changes that resulted from that, but he also writes that the financial anxieties that existed in 2016 amongst people who have a populist band, they have been alleviated and today in gallup, president trump has a 63% approval rating in the handling of an economy. >> jesse: it is bizarre to run a socialist during a record-breaking economic boom. it doesn't make sense to most people. to greg's point, they really stole bernie's momentum last night. if this thing goes the way bernie's folks say it will go when he comes out ahead, then he loses that coming into new hampshire where he is ahead in the last two or three polls. for me at least, joe was on the ropes and not reporting the results really softened the blow but it's even worse than that. he has the whole state to himself or three weeks. he was on air with super pac money for the last week, so low.

i don't know if nancy pelosi's deal backfired but if you think about it, all we heard in january was about where his hunter, quid pro quo joe, and burisma. that couldn't of helped things. i think a lot of people will get on the phone and say, the well is dry, were going somewhere else. he didn't have a good fourth quarter last fund-raising time and i don't think people are going to come back and throw money around at this loser. he has to win somewhere or else the whole electability rationale doesn't mean anything. he's not winning any elections! >> dana: let's talk about amy klobuchar for a moment because as her team says, she's close with biden but they are both going to be fourth or fifth when this is all said and done. she was basically putting all her chips and iowa. she does have this result if it turns out to be at the end when they have all the votes in that

she's only in fourth place. what does she do customer quote is the calculation there? >> the calculation at this point is that i awoke, how is it going to last and it comes to these results. when they get a 100% of reporting customer and people are going to have major questions about the process and whether the numbers are accurate and magical the data, and now that everyone has kind of moved on to new hampshire it's become the ground zero for starting over and really becoming the first state when it comes to results. she can prove she's willing to work hard, be the underdog during impeachment. she flew to iowa, flew out the next morning. >> dana: let me interrupt you, an update for us. some news there. >> bret: i just want to point out something, the percentages you are looking at at the screen, this is essentially the iowa democratic party spinal alignment. this would be after a caucus after somebody doesn't qualify, this is not the popular vote, the first alignment we talked about. as confusing as this sounds, bear with us.

>> martha: what we are asking is, we were told by the iowa democratic party they were going to release the first alignment number than the realignment and final number. this is the number we are going to see going into the delegate count. pete buttigieg won the electoral college and sanders won the popular vote. the question is when voters, we talked last night about how some of these districts, biden was not viable and some of these areas so where did that vote go? it appears that went to pete buttigieg. >> bret: 20,730. 20,730. elizabeth warren, 20,254. these are popular votes. that is first alignment stuff. just wanted to put that in there as we wait for more numbers. speak to them what matters in the end? >> bret: the numbers you see on the screen because that leads to the delegates that iowa is

going to dole out. >> martha: but once again, you will have a situation like last time where bernie sanders is claiming he won because he has the popular vote and also that he is the person who forced this issue so we have this new system in the first place and then he ended up in the same boat. >> dana: some frustration there amongst democrats? >> juan: delegates count, that . it's the delegate count but i just want to point out that when you have the party handling this, it gets wild. i go back, 2012, they said romney won and then the republican party of iowa said several weeks later, ono, rick santorum won and got the delegates. it's not about a conspiracy theory, i think this is about absolute confusion, malfeasance in terms of management that the democratic party of iowa has to

be held accountable for. i think they have damaged the process and the faith in the process. and that is what goes forward. it absolutely contributes to the idea that bernie sanders and his supporters, the bernie bros will say we are getting screwed and ripped off again. meanwhile pete buttigieg is going to say, i'm getting hurt and guess what, joe biden, i thought a lot of people were going to say joe biden might be behind this. in fact, you see kind of cross fire now between sanders and pete buttigieg as each is saying behind the scenes, i am blaming him. i'm blaming him. this is really now a circular firing squad on the democratic side. >> dana: let me ask you when you talk about bernie sanders how does he take the strong support he has and broaden that out. he can't win with the support he has appeared he has to either get the democratic party behind him or some way or peel off somh

seems a little improbable. >> greg: i don't think that is going to happen at all. what's interesting, what they have in common, a lot of people voted for trump even though he didn't express the same principles they did, right? it's like a mime free trade come he's not free-trade, people question if he was actually pro-life. a lot of the never trumpers believed he was not sufficiently conservative. on the democratic side you could do the same where you could say this guy is crazy socialist, even to left for us but would override it both trump and sanders is the need to burn the house down. that is a very strong emotion went something like this happens when you feel like you are being screwed and trump road that emotion about you are not being represented by the people in d.c. they are screwing you over and the mirror image of sanders, who may be wrong on every single issue you believe in but what he is right on is the same thing trump was, which is a deep

dissatisfaction for the people who looked down at you, who think you are dumb. i think he's got that. what is amazing to me is how trump keeps winning without doing anything because of what the democrats are doing, this helps him. he's got a state of the union tonight. makes him look even better. >> jesse: this makes trump look like a competent, steady manager who has guided this economy into a league we haven't seen before. to his point about the economic anxiety, i think where trump survives this in a race against bernie sanders is because of the trump economic recovery has been from the bottom up. you still have that obama era malaise where people feel like it is rigged against them, wages were stagnant and people felt like they weren't getting a fair shake, his focus on the middle

class, on the trade deals and immigration because of the massive regulation cuts he's been able to have a bottom up recovery, which kind of insulates him from the bernie sanders attack that we need to burn the system down because right now the system, capitalism, free-market capitalism is actually doing a lot better than it has been, say, a decade or two or even three. >> dana: can i get you to talk about, if the team can put up the alignment numbers again, i want to talk about some of the people that got significant amount of press and yet they were all at less than 1%. i'm talking about andrew yang, tulsi gabbard and tom steyer, the billionaire who put a lot of money into things. >> katie: social media is not something that only reaches iowa and a lot of people are trying to campaign not just in the first state but also around the

country. when it comes to what the media decides to focus on, there is the establishment version of people thinking they focus on all of the wrong candidates for all the wrong reasons. joe biden, for example, the nonestablishment bernie part of the democratic party has accused in the of taking his side because polling shows that he is the most electable candidate and yet here we are with the results and i was showing that despite having everything on his side, including the media behind him he is coming and forth. and when it comes to moving forward with the campaign, michael bloomberg decided not to play in iowa and last night i think he was looking at the debacle and go on, this is why i was not there and he's been able to buy his own aunts, doubling his staff and continuing to do that. then joe biden starts to fall. >> jesse: he spent a quarter of a million dollars and got

beat by uncommitted. >> juan: here is the thing to keep in mind, he is going to double his money right now. what does that say to people on the democratic side? what he saw last night indicated blood in the water. he is starting to see an unraveling on the joe biden sighed. he needs to have a clearly and in the democratic party process. i will say, to be fair to joe biden, he's been under attack from donald trump from day one. that is what the whole impeachment thing is about. he was trying to get dirt on him. and he didn't intend to play in iowa. his iron wall is south carolina. and the key here is if what happened in iowa and what is likely to happen in new hampshire, bernie head by a lot there, his neighboring state to vermont, does any of this essay to voters, especially black voters in south carolina, that in fact joe biden is not going to get over the finish

line? i don't necessarily see anything there to indicate that yet, but that is what is in play at the moment and with bloomberg putting more money on the table and getting more support by the minute, it's really a fascinating moment in terms of american politics. >> greg: you know what juan is saying, really good point. i can't believe i said that. just kidding, juan peer but the irony is that the guy who screwed over joe biden's named adam schiff. if he had not pushed impeachment so much you wouldn't have had this two month blowback on joe biden's kids and burisma. it's all on adam schiff. >> dana: do we have, i wanted to see if we could bring you back in for a moment. somebody we haven't even mentioned is elizabeth warren coming in in third and then she goes to new hampshire and that is kind of her neighborhood. she is from massachusetts. what is she thinking now, do you wonder?

>> martha: she's got a feeling she got some momentum last night. i think she will feel good about that because the whole story going into it was she was kind of flipped off the map. the other interesting story we're looking at developing here as we look at the counties is pete buttigieg and the counties where he won, a lot of them are outside of the cities. sanders looks like he did very well in des moines, cedar rapids. we look outside to the more rural areas, and buttigieg seems to have won that was. he spent a lot of times in the 31 counties that were obama counties or districts and then became trump districts. he wanted to try to win back those districts back to the democrat side. it will be interesting when we get a better handle on a peer but it looks like in the early indications that those of the areas where he did well and it looks like those of the areas wo do wel well. >> bret: elizabeth warren, her close was about a unity candidate and she will make that pitch to progressives and say,

i'm better at closing than bernie sanders, as far as head-to-head, and can get the biden people and maybe even the pete buttigieg people on her side. that was her close in iowa. i expect it will be her close in new hampshire. we should point out that these are not final numbers, these are 62%, and they could change as we get the rest of the numbers. >> martha: one other thing, watch amy klobuchar because she did better than most people thought she would and it's highly possible that they could flip us you get the final numbers and here. they're very close in these tallies. >> dana: this question you might not be able to answer, he both went to the luncheon the white house with president trump. an annual tradition the presidents to write before they give the state of the union, is there anything you can tell us, his thoughts about the 2020 election? or is that off the table? >> bret: it was not on the record so we can't get into the quotes about that. i can tell you that he is confident. i think you can see that on the

stump and on the campaign, but he exuded that in a numbe numbef ways. >> dana: i don't mean to put you on the spot. >> martha: to characterize his mood, i think he was very confident, brilliant almost, and very focused on tomorrow. and he's going to give a speech tomorrow after that vote, so i think that is the take away as well. >> dana: what did you eat? how did the lunch treat you? >> greg: i was actually surveying, i can tell you everything that was going on, it was crazy. i have to take him a lot of stuff behind your back, not pretty. >> juan: i'm telling you what i'm looking forward to, i can't wait to hear tonight about space for us. i'm sure that was discussed at the lunch. >> dana: we saw something today that happened for president trump, he gets a personal best in the gallup approval rating at 49%. if he does well tonight you can imagine the next couple of weeks he might hit that 50% number and

on the talking point that the democrats have used against him that he's the only president ever to hit 50% in his first term will go away too. >> jesse: this is gallup. so juan, you can take that one of the bank. there's a lot of other good material from the gallup poll. republicans, more republicans are identified then democrats for the first time in a while. independent approval up five points to around 42%, and his handling of the economy is a well over 60%. >> dana: 63%. >> jesse: a lot of great numbers to chew on for the president of the united states. it does look like the more he prevails over these constant attacks, whether it is mueller, he prevailed. if you look at impeachment, he's prevailing. the stronger he gets, and it looks like he is on the right side of history, and the democrats keep coming up empty-handed. in the way they're going about it looks more and more

underhanded. the economy surging in an election year at this point, he's got the wind at his back. it looks to me like the american people say, i get this guy. it is going to be some chaos, there is going to be some drama but at the end of the day i got a big paycheck this past week, things are calm, and we are just going to have to get used to the constant drama and we have to get used to the president prevailing because he's undefeated when it comes to these coups. >> dana: are you getting tired of winning, just, jessica! >> jesse: not yet. >> juan: let me just remind you the same polls showed that half of the american people think he should be out of office. >> jesse: that is not true! 82-46 against impeachment. >> juan: i don't know what you're looking at but every poll says it is about 45-50, even beyond 50 in the fox poll say this guy should be out of offi office. what has he done about

health care? i don't know. where is that wall, just? i don't know! >> dana: let's talk about that, the president has signaled th a what will people say on the topic? i know you follow it closely. >> katie: the press secretary will be talking about the opportunity that america presents and his eternal optimism for the country and what america is capable of achieving. often times, and you know this, the first lady and the president, the guests they decide to bring to the state of the union oftentimes show us what he will be discussing and talking about. a border patrol agent is on the list coming tonight, a veteran who went and served with the country in afghanistan and came back and suffered from ptsd and then became an addict who is now recovered. that goes into their opioid agenda they've been pushing and been pretty successful at over the past couple of years, so those of the things the president is focusing on. we've heard he may mention

impeachment and were hearing a couple rumbles about how democrats may be handling the state of the union address tonight, some of them are boycotting a deciding not to show up. >> dana: what he think about that, people saying, i'm not going to go? >> greg: i'm not surprised. i think what he has to do is tear out his economic achievements clearly and directly and then ask the public, do you want this to continue? or do you want this to end? he needs an analogy of some kind. imagine the economies are fully charged phones. you handed over to the democrats and it turns into a brick. or use a pulse, or the heartbeat stops. he needs a simple analogy and i also think he needs to pivot from that to how it can be even better but i do think he needs to address the coronavirus and be very specific about what he's doing. are we shutting down the airports, from keeping china out

or not? it is an important thing to reiterate going into the year. >> dana: what you think about the president tonight, if he lays out his thoughts for a second term? >> jesse: he hasn't really laid out a second term agenda. to juan's point earlier, people may say hand across the aisle health care effort. there is more wall to be built. 400 miles completed at the end of this year, supposedly. but also, republicans don't want the president to be running on health care in 2020 so maybe he doesn't get too detailed about that. i do think he keeps it broad, as greg mentioned, on the economic policies, the jobs and how it has an offended average people and not make a lot of noise -- >> juan: let me speak to that point.

>> jesse: and tell a story about too. >> dana: can i give you reaction, because if you look at that leaderboard we have from iowa, here we have some of the candidates and this is what they are saying about the economy as it stands today. then we will get juan's thoughts. >> tonight has already showed that americans have a deep hunger for big, structural change. >> are unifying rising american majority ready to raise wages and empower workers in this fast changing economy. >> we have to make an economy that works for us instead of the bottom lines of these huge companies. >> if you are sick and tired of hearing how great the economy is when you don't feel it, i know you and i will fight for you. >> dana: you are a historian and you know there's only twice since world war ii that a president has not won a second term. those two had bad economies. to think the democrats are effective there in their

messaging and the things they are feeling about the economy aren't real? >> correct, i think they are very successful. it's not the democratic candidates, they're reflecting democrats in the country. in fact, i think they are representing independents and swing voters in the country. but the key point is even as he speaks tonight and claims to be the savior of the world, guess what? impeachment still hangs over his head. and when it comes to the econo economy, it's not like americans don't know the economy is doing pretty well, especially those at the upper end. wall street, big tax breaks for the rich. >> greg: tax breaks are rising in the lowest quintile. >> juan: it's a doing great for the rich but it's not doing great for poor people in this country. hold on. >> greg: but he is impeached, that makes me feel good. >> juan: but you cite the american numbers, the gallup poll, a lot of americans give him credit but they still think he is not the guy to be

reelected. why is that? because historically, as dana just that, if the economy is going well he should be on his way to a cakewalk to reelection and that is not the case. >> dana: i don't think anyone thinks this is going to be an easy election. am i characterizing that correctly customer xp one i'm not taking anything for granted. obviously, whoever the democrat puts out there is going to be highly competitive and it's going to be dirty and there's going to be a lot of nasty tricks for the democrats and the media are going to pull on the president. i agree with juan. you don't want to spike the football and to everyone in america is rich now. reelected me. obviously there are people that are still struggling. obviously people are living paycheck to paycheck. but if you look at 2016, i think the average income for middle-class family was like, $60,000. it's at 65,000, $66,000 on average. that is a $5,000 raise.

you haven't seen that big of a raise for the american middle class since the '90s, and that is a very real thing. i think the president is going to focus on that. >> juan: and it's very real to say when he put the tax cut in place, he said this economy was going to take off for the working people. and guess what? all that reinvestment didn't happen. >> dana: let's get your thoughts. >> katie: people are hiring, people's paychecks are bigger, the economy is doing well, people have had wage increases, which is a democratic issue. they've been saying, wall street is doing well, the people's paychecks remained stagnant, that is no longer the case. trump has been able to pull off blue-collar workers because of the usmca. people complaining about the economy live in big, blue cities that are run by democrats. >> juan: didn't you republicans say the deficits would go away? oh! >> dana: it's weird being in all these boxes but i want to go

back to bret baier and martha before we lose them. any last minute update you have on iowa? anything else you can tell us that we should be listening for tonight when we hear the president's state of the union? >> bret: we will start there because we don't know anymore from iowa. we have 62% and that is all we have. we don't have any other data and they haven't told us when the rest of it is coming and so we are where we are. on the speech tonight, expect it to be structured a lot like last date of the union. there will be stories woven in there, some surprises as well. but the fact that the president said it is going to be extraordinarily low key, that is not usually the phraseology that he uses to describe anything he does but that is how he described it on the record tod today. >> martha: it is also fair to characterize that he's thinking about tomorrow, in terms of wanting to get past that vote, which will happen at 4:00 tomorrow in the senate and that he will speak after that. and it almost feels like that is sort of a two part speech of my mind. tonight is going to be the state

of the union and tomorrow, i would look for that to be something like the state of the presidency as he sees it heading into the thick of election year. >> dana: the producers in my ear are telling me that pete buttigieg is a new hampshire tonight, as we know, and he has just declared victory in iowa. >> bret: again. >> dana: yes, again. i don't know if we have that sound? okay, he's just talking now but that is basically what he said. one of the things that is true in america is possession is nine-tenths of the law. if you declare victory people think you are the winner. >> bret: i will say this, it is historic. if you think about this moment that was pretty much taken from him last night by the iowa democratic party and how they handled it, this is the first gay american man with a husband who is essentially winning a state in a democratic party. it is historic in the speech he had written was a lot like

barack obama's speech in 2008 which was kind of soaring and trying to embrace the moment, but it was overtaken by the chaos, and we will see if he can catch on in new hampshire and capitalize on a good night in iowa. >> dana: it says a lot about how it feels on the ground. the people who felt that way about president obama as well. i just think it is also worth reiterating that it looks like there were people who were may be going to vote for joe biden and who crossed over and voted for pete buttigieg because he is seen as sort of a moderate compared to bernie sanders. it looks like you got some of that joe biden vote and they're going to have to scramble a bit. they're doing a huge rollout of ads for the biden campaigns that we will see if he can register >> dana: we appreciate you joining us and helping us out.

greg, can i come back to you on this idea that the president told the anchors that were assembled that the speech will be long and extraordinarily low-key? >> greg: that has to be a prank because there's no such thing as low-key trump. but the thing is, i want to come back to talking about how can somebody be so effective about people having distaste for him. trump is a two hour drive to two hours at the beach. you have to put up with a few bumps and things but the beach looks great. you don't have to love your balls to know he is effective. i'm constantly talking about he is rough, obnoxious. they've all pretty much moved out. wages are up, even in the lower quintiles. unemployment. women unemployment is all time low. you can love those results even

if you don't love the guy. no one is expecting you to love him. >> katie: >> nancy pelosi going into tonight is probably pretty demoralized. she called no witnesses, she didn't get that and today she was asked by reporters in the hallway about the impeachment vote and going into the state of the union and she immediately turned to chuck schumer talking about the budget. that is how well impeachment went for democrats going into tonight. >> dana: can i ask you something about two lines we heard throughout impeachment, which is the democrats kept saying donald trump is going to try to cheat in the election of 2020 and republicans kept saying that the democrats are trying to steal an election from us in 2016, yet we have this iowa debacle from last in which it wasn'theating or stealing, it was just incompetence. if people are concerned about the integrity of the vote, what

is next on that front? >> jesse: i feel like the democrats have done a big disservice to the democracy. if you think about, in 2016 the accused the president of stealing that election. now they are accusing him of stealing 2020 and it hasn't even happened yet. that is like if the san francisco 49ers said, yeah, the chiefs cheated in next year the chiefs are going to cheat again. i mean, the democrats have less class than professional football players at this point. i think about all the bad things that the democrats have said that have made people think twice about the integrity of the election. they paid for foreign interference with the dossier. they said trump and the russians rigged it. that was a hoax. people in georgia, they refused to concede the election, and now they are mishandling their own caucus. i think it falls on their doorstep for making people question it, not trump.

>> dana: one quick thought to respond to that then we will go to a break. >> juan: even today, we saw senator collins on the floor, what she said was yes, he did behave inappropriately. i wouldn't have made the call. this is the consensus now among republicans. it was inappropriate but not impeachable. so this idea of corruption that you say, oh, you know what, the impeachment hurt biden because trump was able to convey the idea that he or his son did something wrong -- gross before we don't know that. >> juan: exactly right. but what we do know is that trump did something wrong even according to a republicans and believe me, that corruption, that effort to get dirt on joe biden was an effort to corrupt the 2020 election. >> jesse: can we just take a quick break. we're going to be right back. quick break but were going to come back with all of these five people in just a moment. ntellige gives you the power to see every corner of your growing business.

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♪ >> the iowa democratic party just released a 62% of the results, hsults, here's some ofe media reaction. >> it's been chaos. >> this is a disaster on every

level. >> complete chaos and disaster. >> according to source it's a disaster. >> they are starting to tweet out the results. >> it's staggeringly embarrassing and unacceptable. >> was there election interference, was it pure incompetence? >> if it wasn't the russians in this case it appears to be the democrats who did it themselves. >> the guy in the white house chuckling here. >> dana: the democrats screwed this up in the media were like we have to call them out. >> greg: this reminds me in 2016, they realize they can't say or do anything at all they do is seek out the best adjectives. it takes a lot for something to be really embarrassing on the democrat side because the apparatus which is protected by the media apparatus at this point because the democratic apparatus exploded, the media

was a shell. you could see the awfulness for what it was. if these were republicans and you screw up, it's out before it even happens. >> jesse: everything the media has said so far has been wrong. biden, this big mr. electabili mr. electability. >> dana: that is what he was saying. >> jesse: the media propped this guy up, the only reason that donald trump is going after biden's because he's so scared of joe biden. every time joe biden has run for president he's failed, the only time he was successful was in delaware when he was writing obama's coattails. >> size doesn't matter when it comes to states. >> jesse: mayor pete, what an amazing job. he's been on the ground, very well organized. you have to give mayor pete a lot of credit.

>> dana: i'm sorry i'm looking at my phone but that's how i'm getting my information right n now, the communications director for pete buttigieg campaign said the website is currently getting the most traffic we have ever recorded on any day in this campaign and it says #phase4. >> katie: leading up to the iowa caucuses, i think the mayor pete campaign did a good job without lowering expectations and not going overboard, they said we look to do well and pete buttigieg did that town hall with chris wallace and said we were going to do the best that we can. i'm not surprised that people are little bit surprised, shocked, they're going to find out who this guy is and what his platform stands for. according to a lot of people on the ground, they weren't sure about his background. >> dana: i got a statement from jeff weaver, i'll ask you

to respond to this -- he says we want to thank the people of iowa, we were gratified in the partial data released so far it's clear that in the first and second round, more people voted for bernie than any other candidate in the field. trying to make that popular vote argument. >> juan: the popular vote doesn't matter. you could argue that's what they should do. they should stop with the caucus concept in iowa and go to the popular vote, the people know how the people of iowa decide on an individual basis and may be even most places in america, and the caucus system, it's the party that does the counting, going back to 2012 we've seen republicans not do so well with it this time. i want to speak to the media point, when the media criticizes democrats you guys say the media finally woke up but when they criticize republicans, they say it's unfair media. i don't get it.

>> katie: you see how that works? >> jesse: i'll give you an example. the colossal mistake, there's nowhere to hide, they have to criticize them. >> dana: you had somebody like mayor pete who came out against the electoral college, he wants to abolish the electoral college and yet he is making an argument that because under the rules, he can claim victory in iowa because he's saying under those rules just like the electoral college, you won the popular vote. >> dana: no regular american understands these iowa caucus rules, it's not a winner-take-all. a couple people, the top three or four are going to split the 40 delegates out of iowa, they all have a tiny handful of delegates going into new hampshire, then same thing.

not winner-take-all, each snatches a handful of delegates. this is why this primary is going to take forever and no one is going to be a clear winner. >> juan: one quick point about what we are going to see with mayor pete. i would be interested but i think you are still going to see sanders do very well in new hampshire. the question then becomes about south carolina. mayor pete has very little support in south carolina especially among black voters. >> dana: it's possible that will happen. young people trying to convince their parents or their grandparents to look at a younger generation. >> katie: there is video of a young man trying to convince his dad to switch from joe biden to mayor pete. we keep talking about south carolina, there's a new poll coming out showing that joe biden only has 30% of black

support and bernie sanders is at 20%, we have a long way to go until we get to south carolina and it doesn't seem like the biden campaign is capable of making its own momentum and certainly they don't have a movement like bernie or pete does. >> dana: when you have been on the road for so long we feel like we have been on that very long road. are you going to be live tweeting the speech tonight. >> greg: i will be on tucker tonight but what i find most interesting about the real support for bernie sanders is here you have the democrats who despise the russian influence but they are voting for a guy who loves the soviet system. has anybody ever pointed that out, isn't that weird? >> dana: there's a big old bucket of opposition research the democrats have been holding onto that's about to be dumped somewhere. >> juan: he is trumps pick for the democrats, he thinks he's a tomato can.

>> jesse: they are all can of tomatoes. you look at those goals -- >> jesse: you see how that works? i just read a letter that some soviet officials sent to bernie sanders when he won the mayoral race in burlington, vermont, that is at the height of the cold war -- you're already seem to see the anti-bernie appl drop. >> katie: they were complaining about waiting in line, apparently it's a problem now. >> dana: we will be here watching the speech together, we will be back with you in new york tomorrow but it's good to be back. >> greg: i'm in your seat.

>> dana: thanks everybody, that is it for us. please never miss an episode of the five, special report of ne next. ♪ >> bret: good evening and welcome to washington, breaking tonight the first results from iowa are coming in and with nearly two-thirds of the precincts reporting, mayor pete buttigieg is out in front of the two progressive candidates bernie sanders and elizabeth warren with joe biden and amy klobuchar almost tied with biden. here's what the iowa democratic party said, 62% of all 99 counties in iowa, buddha elizabeth warren is third and joe biden's fourth. amy klobuchar sits in fifth place.