>> bret: wisconsin as well. pennsylvania, a lot of raw vote total coming in. you can look out in arizona where it is very tight early. it's about half in. georgia now seems like it's getting close to being baked here. 93% in, 50.8. 83% in pennsylvania. bill, you want to chat about pennsylvania? >> what i set up for you, bret, what the night is all about, right? how to get to 270. if you punch around the map and see the margins, i'm going to do something. i'm not getting ahead of anything here. i want to tell you, as it stands right now, if you were to call this entire thing, you know, harris at 216, trump at 232. you know, if -- i know you're going to make a call. it's midnight on the east coast.

>> bret: we'll come back. it's wednesday in new york. time flies. polls just closed in hawaii. the fox news decision desk can project that vice president harris will win the state of hawaii. they have voted for the democrat in every election since 1984. this was no different. >> martha: the fox news decision desk believes that the democrats will win the second desk in nebraska. >> bret: the path is getting narrower for kamala harris. and the balance of power as we just said, the u.s. senate will go to republican control. so far 51-43. again, you can see the white blocks there. could see some more senate races continue to fall the republicans

way. so rudely interrupted, bill hemmer by midnight. >> it's all good. i want to show you, based on where we stand right now, if we called the game, trump is at 232. he just widened his lead in pennsylvania by four. still not enough. in georgia right now, his lead went from 2.7 to 2.2. we'll check back on that. if he hangs on in georgia, 267. still not enough. michigan, he was up almost five points in michigan. if it stays that way, it's his. he's back in the oval office. if wisconsin stays where it is and i just checked the number, he would run it up to 292. if arizona -- he was up .1 percentage points, now up .4 now. increasing his margin. almost half of the vote out there. arizona count is slow. it's okay. take our time on that.

it would be 303. so that's where we are. we can run through the other states. i'll show you. what i'm seeing there. georgia has not been called here. 2.3 now. popped up a tenth of a point. let's go through them. pennsylvania. yet again, all right? it was 4. it's now 3.7. watch philadelphia. there's still outstanding vote there as well. come over to michigan. i said it was five. what is it rights now? it's exactly 5. 5.0. while we have you guys, let's do two more. wisconsin, where does it stand right now at midnight on the east coast? 3.9 now in wisconsin. i see a lot of red on this map, guys a lot of red. normally see more trickles of blue. in arizona, the southwest as of now, that's where it is, .4 percentage points. trump leads in arizona. half the voting. too soon to cam. that's where we are. we'll see if we can get a call in a moments.

>> bret: sean hannity and that t-shirt seems far distant thing. we could be looking at a real tilt here. something that goes a long way not only the coat tails, we all know about the house, but the senate and we could be looking at something that is historic. >> which means based on what bill is describing here, a better chance that he runs all three states than vice president harris does, which illustrates how long the odds are for her. it could happen. she could do it -- it's a long shot. >> martha: it would look like 1980. you'd be in landslide territory. >> yeah. >> martha: if he ends up taking -- >> bret: that's how the electoral college is designed to make the outcome convincing. >> bret: that's if the blue wall

has cracks but a lot of breakage on the inside, on the side. there's a lot of stuff happening here. let's check in with aishah hasnie at trump campaign headquarters. it has to be getting kind of fired up. >> yeah, really fired up. really exciting mood here. a lot of moving parts. behind me, bigger crowd now. a lot of folks mar-a-largo partying with the former president are trickling in. we saw senator marco rubio. i saw a tik tok video of the former president walking around his celebration party in mar-a-largo. i don't know what time that was taken. he looked to be in a very good mood. i'm told by folks in mar-a-largo that the mood is very positive. i also know now that mike johnson in shreveport, louisiana at his own party is now on a plane in route to mar-a-largo to come here and celebrate with the former president. so all around, all the signs are indicating that there's going to

be a victory celebration here tonight here shortly. all eyes are on pennsylvania. pennsylvania, pennsylvania. that is the only state that anybody here wants to talk about. that's what they're waiting for to be called. that's when this place will get lit, guys. back to you. >> bret: as they say, i hear they say that. they do. >> martha: they do say that. let's go to jacqui heinrich at the harris campaign head quarters in washington. jacqui, we spoke about your reporting a short time ago of pretty dire moods. at least three people very close to vice president harris. >> yes. there were some more colorful words than that even that i wouldn't ever dare send over e-mail. overall, the sense that i'm getting from multiple people close to the campaign, close to the vice president, is that the vibes are very bad. those three sources believe that her path is narrowing so much

that it would be very difficult to overcome. right now the campaign though is still maintaining that none of her paths to 270 have closed even when i pushed them on the north carolina race call and said, you know, can you update that? they said as jen o'malley said, the clearest path is the blue wall. so what we're hearing from sources, the exit polls that they have been watching, they're saying -- they're accurate. she would need to outperform, turn things around and what's coming in is not showing that that is likely or possible. one of those sources put it the most bluntly saying i think we're losing this. right now the crowd is thinning out a little bit. at the same time, we haven't gotten any updates officially on who to expect here, when to expect them here. there hasn't been any messaging

to the people waiting out here about who might be reading them later or even when. so we will update you when when find out more about that. someone close to the vice president said looks like she will come down in an hour or so. she will have to have a message when she does. they're probably formulating whatever that will be. there's been a lot of messaging from the campaign about how long they'll take the outstanding ballots to be counted and maybe give everyone waiting something to hang on to. also, been talking over the last few days about their process of making sure that the vote is accurate and that any challenges go through the regular orderly lawful process. but we will update you if we get anything official from them. right now the official line from the campaign is really not aligned with what we're hearing from sources inside, guys. >> bret: people are not leaving, right? they're still there. you can see them -- >> martha: said some people have trickled out. did you say that, jacqui?

>> yeah, i don't know if we can pan over. there's probably another crew that will be blocking us. there's this big gap in the grass over there. this was filled with people dancing just a short while ago. it's kinds of empty now. there are a couple of different stages here. we were actually told earlier in the night, the reason there were two stages is there's a remote location where a studio where harris could go and potentially pipe video in the the race was stillout standing, if enough of these states were remaining uncalled and needed to go in to another day. it does and sound like that is going to be utilized tonight. we're hearing word that she could be coming here to say something. who knows who will be around for it. >> bret: no, we hear new edition in the background. there may be a new edition to make here in a call that we're having in a few minutes. i wanted to try to do that if i

could make that transition. >> martha: well-done. >> bret: didn't really work. jacqui was spell bound by that one. sorry about that. let's bring in our panel, marc thiessen, trey gowdy, kellyanne conway and the chain gang on the right changed to the desk. they haven't left. okay. marc, what are your thoughts? >> when i interviewed donald trump at mar-a-largo the day after the second assassination attempt, we talked about the previous election. this election probably would be as close. he said to me maybe or maybe a lot. i have a feeling it might be a lot. looks like he might have been right. if it turns out the way this seems to be coming, this is the greatest political comeback since 1892 when grover cleveland lost the white house hand won it back. what that means is love him or hate him, he's not a once in a

generation talent but once in a century talents. this is what the democrats wanted. they thought trump would be easier to beat. they wanted to rally republicans around him so he would be the nominee. that may have been a grave political miscalculation. >> martha: trey gowdy, i'm struck by the strategy on the trump campaign. he wanted to do all of these rallies. he dug in to that strategy in a big way. also he said that immigration, he felt was a more important topic than the economy even though the economy kept coming in higher on the issue list. chicago, miami, all of these places, one of the embedded issues in those cities is the burden that they have had under immigration. so maybe he was right. >> he was definitely right. immigration and the border is

kind of a microcosm of rule of law, what kind of country we'll be, whether or not to follow the rules. to take the oath of citizenship, the word law is used six times for new citizens. doesn't make a lot of sense to break the law and swear an oath that you'll follow it. my friend, marc, knows more about politics used the word comeback. it's really more akin to a political resurrection. if you asked me january 7 or after the fourth of the four indictments, i would have told you i see no way that he will be the nominee or the president. now it looks like sean may be right. maybe 300 electoral votes. i've been calling my senate friends. some of them don't take my call. the others require me to call them chairman. [laughter] they will not go by senator anymore. so they are -- i mean, mike rogers is up.

it could be a 54-55, which means trump gets his cabinet. some of the folks we heard for his cabinet might not could survive in a 51-49 senate. they will be confirmed in a 54-46 senate. >> bret: i talked about the house and some democrats outperformed in the east coast. but you'd think in this environment with these coat tails that maybe they end up hanging on if you get out west to the middle of the country and longer. how do you see that? >> that's right. now chairman richard hudson who has been running the national congressional committee said we're going to gain but it won't be double digits. my own firm has seen between three and eight seats projecting, 297 electoral votes and 53-seat senate. 55, 56 would be remarkable. it's not just the blue wall cracking for trump. it's the workers, these steel

workers, the union households, the jewish americans around philadelphia and detroit and pittsburgh, they've had enough. this is the time where they're breaking ranks. i think that if he can hold on to the house, brett, he really insulates himself from thinks impeachment shenanigans and whatnot. i have to tell you, if this is a decisive victory and we're not there yet, but if it's a decisive victory, i think the democrats have to think twice about this lawfare strategy that they have put on his shoulder like an anvil. they thought that that would get rid of him. nobody has been more insulted and investigated, impeach, indicted, take him out of his family business, take him name off of the ballot. you name it, they tried it. i would think three times if i were them. is there a democrat in the senate or the house that he can rely upon to help get his agenda through? none of them voted for the tax cut the first time.

it's been fitted all of their districts. there's no question. >> bret: maybe the ones that have cited him in commercials may all go down. >> some are losing because they're not authentic. bob casey votes with the democrats. one thing i wants to point out in the data, on the fox news voter analysis has harris winning college educated women by ten points. real clear politics average of polls shows she was going from 9% to 18%, doubling biden's margin. that's not coming true tonight. i think that was her best demographic path to make up these other deficits. we're not seeing it tonight. it's too much abortion, too much wokeness and not much the inflation and immigration. >> martha: the other issue that was so central for her, dana, is abortion. watching these referendums and some of them have passed,

new york passed, maryland passed, new york didn't pass. what we're seeing is people seem to be separating it from the rest of the picture. voting their will. >> kellyanne might want to jump on to this as well. when the voters are telling you since may of 2021 that immigration and inflation and the economy are the number 1 issues and it's been consistent every month since then, maybe you should listen to them. when you look at -- for some people, abortion, pro life, pro choice is the number 1 issue. if you're a single issue voter. but if you looked at all of the polls that said it was down below, it wasn't their top issue. it was economy, immigration, crime. sometimes democracy, but down below, abortion, foreign policy, et cetera. i think some of these state referendums that worked very well for them in 2022 did not do as well for them in a

presidential election. >> bret: it's a re-alignment. this is a re-alignment of the republican party. there's no doubt. we thought it in 2016. it's now fully implemented in the face of what was everybody's point. fascism, hitler, nazi, madison square garden. a puerto rican comedian that they said would move the puerto rican vote around the country. a major re-alignment. look at the mass media covering that one way and say i don't believe it. i do not believe that. i'm going to vote how i want to vote. >> we can go back a number of years into all of the false alarms, all of the false stories written about trump while he was president and date the beginning of this back in that period in terms of the loss of credibility of mainstream media, loss of credibility of people throwing around nazi and everything.

people didn't buy it. i'll also say this. we ought to keep a thought for the harris campaign people. because they were saddled with the person i think that was the weakest presidential candidate i've ever seen. she was the weakest. one of the reasons why they didn't do some of the things related to issues that you mentioned, dana, is that they had a candidate that couldn't pull it off. she didn't have anything to say. bret, you lad an interview with her. he came out with one heavy question that you asked her about when she first figured out that biden wasn't all that and she booted it. what are you doing to do with somebody like that if you're a campaign adviser? there's a limit to what you can do. >> i wonder what nancy pelosi is thinking tonight and chuck schumer that went over to biden's residence and said look, this is over. joe biden is the reason that kamala harris is the candidate. in one posting on social media, he dropped out. the next one he said she's your

person. all talk of a mini primary dissolved. harold, your thoughts. >> we're not declaring this. we want to be careful. looks as if this is heading in a certain direction. i don't disagree with what has been said. i recall after bret's interview with the vice president, she went on arrival network. she was asked the first piece of legislation you'd like to get passed. she punted the question. she wanted to say bipartisan. how do you say border security? how do you not want to reach out to the republicans and i want to restore roe v. wade. something consistent with your message or where the country wants to go. we still -- i don't want to write anybody's political obituary until the race has been declared. but i hope if it looks like what will happen happens, i do hope everybody can be gracious and magnanimous. this is the greatest political

comeback we've seen. i've not heard marc talk about the 1892 reference. the political resurrection of trey gowdy, i called one of your friends. he said call me mr. chairman also this evening. but we have to be gracious in the moment. i hope kellyanne, there will be democrats that will want to reach out to president trump and reach out to republicans in the senate. we'll see what happens with the house. again, we haven't declared anything. >> bret: there's the caveat. bill hemmer, we're waiting on georgia. right? >> waiting on a lot of things. >> and waiting on pennsylvania, wisconsin, michigan. why georgia, do you think? >> let me pop down there. had a nice map set up for you guys. >> bret: i'm sorry. >> i can come back to it. here's georgia. all right? here's remaining vote. what i see is a lot of the vote in atlanta is in the metro area is in.

there's fractions here and fractions there. i see chatham, savannah. it's not a small county. it's got about a third of the votes remaining as well. we're not quite settle up for the vote margin there. >> bret: go back to pennsylvania. i want to check in. >> it's okay. when i was poking around here a moment ago is wisconsin. if you do the remaining vote and the reason we put in the different shades of purple, the deeper the purple, the more outstanding the vote. the lighter the shade of gray, that means the county has checked in already. you see down here, milwaukee. a little more than half is reporting in milwaukee. there's some suggestion that the middle of the night, 3:00, 4:00 a.m. milwaukee expects to go ahead and give us the remaining vote. this is michigan. this is the remaining vote that issout standing. a lot of this is rural and the upper peninsula. a lot of this is rural up here. this is wayne county, this is

detroit. only 23% of the vote has been reported. so that's 75% outstanding, right? 75 to 77. somewhere in that range. so a lot of votes in detroit. so whether or not that is something that they can overcome on harris' side, i don't know. let's pop out to the southwest while i got you guys. let's go here. okay. well, this is changing here. .7 now. 13,365 for trump in arizona. let me see this. you have rurals out here. a lot of republican votes here. maricopa is the big one. 60% of the vote statewide is here in maricopa. a slim lead here. 2.2. that hasn't moved. the folks in arizona said that they would -- going to be a process. it's going to take awhile, too. look, if you asked there

question at the decision desk, they may tell you one thing. the only thing i can tell you, when i poke around, the main population centers in michigan, wisconsin and philadelphia as well, state of pennsylvania are still outstanding as of now. >> bret: a lot more to dig in to, a lot more calls from the data. the biggest prize, the blue wall. our coverage continues next.

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(hooves approaching) not again. your cold is coming! your cold is coming! thanks...revere. we really need to keep zicam in the house. only if you want to shorten your cold! when you feel a cold coming, shorten it with zicam (revere: hyah) >> there's several states that are very important that are too early to call. pennsylvania, wisconsin, michigan and georgia. states we've talked about a lot over recent weeks. we want to get that data in. >> bret: we're closing in. there's a lead in a lot of these states. you look at what is left out there, pennsylvania, 86% in. michigan is early, 52%. 80% in wisconsin. 93% in georgia.

we're going to dig in to georgia in a little bit. in fact, let's throw it down to madison alworth in atlanta. madison, why haven't you made a call? >> bret, i've been getting that question from a lot of folks on the ground. obviously fox has not called georgia as a state. this crowd, they celebrated at 10:30. that's when gop chairman of georgia got on the stage, he called it for trump here in georgia. again, obviously fox news has not called. but at this party, they very much have. so the party happened at 10:30. they've been cheering on and waiting to hear why the fox news decision desk has not made that decision yet. a lot of things they're looking at that make them excited. certain counties like baldwin, which is an area that has usually votes democratic. that is an area that actually is now favoring trump. it's also predominantly black and has two universities there. so the fact that that area is

going for the former president probably says something about the young black vote and the young vote in general. you probably heard some cheering. that's because they have us on the screen behind me. they had us on. the people are waiting for you to make the decision because like i said, at 10:30, they called it for trump. obviously still waiting on fox news to make that official decision. bret, martha? >> bret: madison, that area is really come around in recent years. they thought the harris campaign thought that they had a real shot in georgia. we haven't called it yet. there's a reason for that. they're waiting for other votes to come in. there's an excitement there that they're finally going to get over the top. >> oh, absolutely there's an excitement here. we've been talking to folks on the ground. the fact that georgia will most likely flip for former president trump again. they said thing like enjoy this moment. we worked hard for this. enjoy the fact that we're

bringing safety back to america. they're very happy that their candidate is going to take home the win here. you know, i've been talking to voters on the ground for days now. i got a lot of people that said they waited. they took time to make their decision and ultimately came out to trump for them. so a very dedicated voting base here. in this room, we're at the gop watch party. they're quite excited. >> bret: thanks, madison. there's not been a lot of count in georgia in the last 45 minutes or so. we'll see where that stands. >> martha: what about tennessee? which we called a really long time ago. everybody is wondering, what is happening in tennessee? pete hegseth can answer that question for us. he's in nashville. did you hear, pete, that we called tennessee? >> bret: awhile ago. >> with 0% of precincts reporting, which i appreciate and so did the crowd here. my kind of state. my kind of state. i'm telling you, we're having fun. we're at kid rock's in downtown

nashville on broadway. behind me, have a lot of intelligent independent women behind me that are really fired up about the outcome tonight. i mean, you guys are like john madden and pat summeral calling a football game. every call you make, this crowd er erupts. when they erupt, it's based on a call you're making. it's fascinating to watch the energy the room increase as the odds have moved in favor of trump winning. we've been talking to voters all night. that's what i love about election night. you know this. you have pundits, polls and on election night, the people speak. the people here are watching. there -- this may be a bright red state where their vote doesn't matter in the electoral college but they're watching fellow americans cast ballots on a candidate that they believe in. so a lot of energy. represents a lot of living rooms

where maybe families of four or five are chanting usa as you guys are bringing in the return and the hope that the former president will be 47. it's a matter of when it might be called. thanks for indulging us. we just wrapped our coverage and you're doing a phenomenal job. >> bret: thanks, pete. good music, too. >> martha: say hi to everybody down there. >> bret: maybe not new edition. let's bring in our panel. welcome back. karl rove, jessica tarlov and sandra smith. our regulars to the right. sandra, great job looking in to the fox news voter analysis? >> we haven't talked about fracking. views on fracking. this is key in the state. we know that kamala harris flip-flopped on this issue. we're looking at how voters responded to that. 62% of pennsylvania voters say they favor expanding fracking in that state. those voters back trump by more

than two to one. that was important to those voters. >> martha: michigan union voters that looks about the same with the fox news voter analysis. what might make the difference for donald trump in michigan, white catholics. really interesting. he's at 61% of the vote with white catholics. harris is 37%. trump won white catholics by 13 points in 2020. he has run that up to 24-point margin. that's a big difference. >> martha: major difference. >> bret: you wonder whether she should have gone to that dinner. >> martha: she may be wondering that tonight. he showed up and gave his speech. he's had a lot of support mostly based on the pro life issue. >> r.f.k. jr. was cutting adds for the catholic vote in battleground states. >> i was going to say, when you look at the margins at this moment in wisconsin and

michigan, somewhere in florida, r.f.k. jr. may be breathing a sigh of relief. he could have been a spoiler in those. looks like the margin is big enough. >> i think we have to bring up the youth vote again. what a difference we're seeing from four years ago. those voters under the age of 30 going for harris over trump by eight points. four years ago, they favored biden by 25 points. i mean, this is a huge difference. we dive in at the state level. you're seeing what a difference that makes where he's outperforming what we saw ear earlier. >> martha: how amazing the younger candidate, a lot of talk that a younger candidate would draw younger voters. joe biden drew them more than she has. >> bret: karl, you've been on the back of nights like this, digging in to the numbers. what board do you have for us now? >> where we began. it comes down to pennsylvania. pennsylvania goes for trump,

we'll settle the contest and be mathematically impossible for her to win. >> bret: as you looked at tonight, what did you see? >> as it unfolded, a little change. earlier it looks like he was doing slightly better in the big city urban areas. in some suburbs like in georgia, he was not doing as well. tonight in pennsylvania, for example, he's doing better in all four of the southwestern -- southeastern suburban counties as well as doing better in the rural parts of the state. it is an unusual coalition. it's inner city ethnics, it's catholics that have been for decades the principal swing vote in america. increasingly hispanic voters among them. he's knit together that coalition tonight against long with working class people and small towns and rural parts of the country. >> if i could add one data

points on the white catholics. looks like trump is running almost the same as 2020. trump is down one point with the white catholics in pennsylvania. that's about the same, but union voters, he's seeing a down arrow there. about three points. he's running down below his 2020 levels. >> bret: there's still hope for the blue wall. what are you hearing? >> there's hope. i didn't love to see the go take a nap and we'll get back to you in the morning about this. but we have to keep in mind the race in 2020 wasn't called for days. biden won pennsylvania on friday of that week and wisconsin on thursday, i think it was. we'll see. if they think it's close, there's vote coming in. there's some conversation over how much vote remained in philadelphia. there were 126,000 out there that could go in to harris' column. two things i've thought about.

dana knows this well. how much i love to throw out a good door knocking stat. 2,000 door knock as minute for the harris campaign. does that stuff matter anymore? we'll see how this pans out. she could win with a simple getting nebraska second. the harris campaign ran a conventional campaign. raising money, souls to the polls. that kind of stuff matters. will that be the path going forward? the second thing is, if this night doesn't end up going harris direction, she will have underperformed biden in 2020 in every demographic, college educated women, even with college educated women, it wasn't the overwhelming win that we thought it would be or projected in some of these very prominent surveys. when you think about the fact that there were some people, i didn't think we would win iowa, but we saw surveys where he was

only up five in kansas or three in ohio. it's going to take a lot of refocusing to understand really what happened here. it doesn't seem like it was one decision that the harris campaign did. i'm sure if she loses pennsylvania, there will be josh shapiro talking about. >> karl, jessica just talked about 150,000 votes in philadelphia. i saw your head swing around. does that not make sense to you? >> no. we're pretty good at saying 89% of the vote is in and not turning out to be -- that turns out to be accurate. very rare -- i can't imagine an instance where we look at a number and see 90% of the vote and turned out to be grossly off. i will say this. i want to follow up on one

thing. think about all that she had to face. this is an abysmal number when it's comes to the approval of the sitting president. no party has elected a president when their sitting incumbent has as low a job approval as this president had. take a look at the right direction wrong track. 2/3s of the american people say the country is going in the wrong direction. she is -- she represents the party in power. to me, it's amazing she's come as close as she has -- she was the vice president in a very unpopular administration. again, britt made the point earlier, the electoral college will serve the purpose of translate ago relatively small difference between these two people. look at pennsylvania, 50.9 to 48.1. at the end of the day, a series of victories that are one and two and three points will

generate a commanding number in the electoral college that will help the new president, president again, if it all goes like it looks like it's going, to be more effective in office. >> bret: harold ford, are there going to be biden people that say he could have been better? >> i think it's hard to make that case for some of the reasons that britt and karl have made the point. i think three things. i listened to sandra's data. i'm curious as we get a day away from this, what happened with the performance amongst women for her. did she win african american women, hispanic women, white women? were there disparities? even black voters where it could be. interesting, karl, normally you see a race where the cultural issues impact -- you talked about the suburban areas where he wasn't performing where the

economic issues, fracking and livelihoods of those communities were at stake. you have the cultural issues. the issue around transgender rights was a bigger issue than democrats understood what it meant for girls playing sports. i'm a father of a son and a daughter. i don't think -- we've not gotten our heads around that issue. so be a lot of reckoning. to jessica's point and a lot of reimagining whom we are as a party, which i think will be good for the party if indeed the trend continues where it is this evening. >> bret: i'm not going to belabor this point. but for a candidate who democrats really were aggressive and a media that echoed that called him racist and a nazi and yet today to see the black vote and the hispanic vote going exponentially more than it did

before is quite something. it's startling, britt. >> it's further sign of the influence of the mainstream media, which tends to take its cues to say the least from the democrats and to repeat with serious faces the charges that he made and sometimes outlandish claims made about donald trump. >> bret: could be getting ready for a call soon. we're going to stay here and we're going to go to bill hemmer. you're looking at pennsylvania, bill? can you hear me? >> sorry. they were talking to me. >> bret: how come i always talk to you when they talk to you. pennsylvania we're still looking at. we're also looking at the national popular vote. which he's currently leading. >> yeah. one thing i looked at here. this is philadelphia. this is 2016. this is trump's margin in philadelphia. 15 1/2. comes back four years later,

philadelphia. that's -- it's a republican running in a blue, blue part of the state. just shy of 18. okay. where is he tonight? he's almost at 21. hold on to that moment here. there's a reason for this. caught me off guard. let's go ahead and look at the vote difference for pennsylvania. some things i want to show you right now. we talked about this democratic march over here. when we talk about the blue wall, there's where we stand right now. have to retire on that. trump is just shy of three percentage points. that's a live number that continues to come in. clear this. kevin widen out. look at the vote margin for pennsylvania. i'm going to show you the blue

wall and how, if it's moved every direction the past three decades, is it about to move in the same direction again? there's three counties in philadelphia that tell a story. these are flipper counties. look at northampton. all right? northampton is above philadelphia. trump's leading in northampton. that flipped for biden. flipped back to trump by about five points. look at the other end of the state in earie. 30 minutes ago it flipped to trump. in center county. smack dab in the middle of that t that you normally get in pennsylvania, center county has always been the exception. it's been blue. that's where penn state university is. that is another indication about how well trump has done in

pennsylvania thus far tonight. there's a real good chance he flips all of those and maybe more shortly. i want to show you that. clear it. give it back to you guys. okay? >> bret: well, it's really interesting. we have some action. we're hearing the former president is going to his party in west palm and also seeing cedric richmond in the harris walz campaign speaking. let's listen. >> we still have states that have not been called yet. we will continue overnight to fight to make sure that every vote is counted, that every voice has spoken. so you won't hear from the vice president tonight. but you will hear from her tomorrow. she will be back here tomorrow to not only address the h.u.

family and supporters and to address the nation. so thank you. we believe in you. may god bless you, may god keep you and go h.u. and go harris! thank you all. >> martha: cedric richmond, campaign co chair. it's hard to ignore the fact that this is the mirror image of 2016 when john podesta, hillary clinton's campaign chair came out and said, you know, we're still counting votes and you won't hear from her tonight. >> bret: which is stunning -- go h.u. howard university, campaign headquarters. the vote is still going. they're not stopping. the counting is still continuing in wisconsin, michigan and pennsylvania, in arizona, in nevada. so you know, as you start getting to decision here and we could be getting close to a

decision, we'll see where we are in georgia. there's been other calls for georgia. we are now and michigan, bill hemmer, seeing some movement? >> yeah. up over 6.3. the margin is getting larger for trump here. the raw vote is 210,000. if you do math, you think what issout standing in detroit, wayne county, which is a sizable amount of votes out there, but whether or not there's not votes in wayne, once they announce and release, whether or not it's enough to overcome his lead right now. >> martha: what about kent county? he has closed three campaigns in grand rapids. he just closed this one there last night. >> kent county has been stubborn for donald trump. this was a flipper from 2020 when joe biden took it from the trump team. right now in kent county, she's got a pretty comfortable lead here, about ten points. it's a remarkable thing.

the gerald ford museum is there. we talked about the re-alignment of america in the south carolina, north carolina, georgia. you don't think about a realignment in michigan. this is an area that donald trump wanted to win, a reason why he started his tradition in 2016 by concluding his campaign in kent county. he did it in 2020 in a losing effort. he did again this past weekend monday night in midnight, right? he rolled in to -- wow, yeah, he rolled in to florida at 5:30 yesterday morning. it was this morning, wasn't it? yeah. you follow me on the calendar? okay. it's been stubborn. it appears that it will stick that way as well. kent county will stay in the blue column. it's a changing area, this west coast of michigan.

what i'm seeing right now, even though you have just ant 60% of the vote in, i'm seeing a lot of red lining up and down lake michigan. for a while, you know, that had changed. seemed to be shifting a little bit. a county called muskegon. a beautiful part of the world. that had seemed to be drifting in the democratic column as well. trump has a firm grip on it now. 16 points. west of muskegon -- south of muskegon, ottawa county there. for years this was like a republican bastion. trump kept it that way in 2020. winning by 21 1/2 points. in 2016, in ottawa, he ran away with it. it will stay that way tonight. let's come out to real-time data here. let you know where we are statewide. you have some vote out there. but you see this margin here yet again. just as i'm talking here, guys, it's ticking high ir.

6.3% lead in michigan. i'm not going to say it because it's not my job but it looks like the blue wall could stay intact yet again for another year where it votes in unison with the winning party who takes the white house that year. >> martha: since 1988 that has held. >> bret: we're getting ready for a call. fox news can now project that the state of georgia will go to former president donald trump. this was a really hard-fought battle. if you think about georgia, losing it last time to president biden by 11,779 votes. for some reason that number sticks in my mind. and this is a big win. he went there, campaigned there and so did vice president harris numerous times thinking that georgia could stay in the democratic column. >> martha: he had a difficult relationship with governor brian

kemp. if you remember, four years ago, after losing georgia, they tried to salvage two senate races in georgia. a month later, special elections. that didn't go well either. so this is a very big win for former president trump to have this redemption in georgia tonight. >> bret: now we're at electoral count 248 for trump. 216 for harris. we have juan williams and karl rowe. darren, i got you out here. are we calling georgia? you pushed the button. >> martha: are you here to tell us we were right? >> exactly right. i thought you were going to grill me. we preempted that. >> martha: what else are we going to call? >> you called georgia in the nick of time for you. >> bret: how do you see this night? was it like you thought doing in

and as you look at the blue wall there? >> i think two things. this is an election unprecedented by my standards. the more data i saw, the more possibilities seemed to unfold. stuff a couple weeks ago i didn't think could happen. i didn't think trump could win the national vote. i'm not going to say he's going to. somebody that nobody thought could happen. they thought he was capped at 47, 48 possible. it's a possibility. we had conversations about whether or not these swing states would move together or crack and move separately. a possibility i didn't think this would happen earlier today that he could sweep all of them. it's not a prediction but something in the realm of possibility. >> bret: a blue wall turns into a red wall. >> it's possible. michigan in particular being the toughest state for trump to crack. now bill has shown the data. we've been looking at it for hours. michigan is looking very

difficult for her. >> martha: all of these toss-up states have been within a point or two. anyway to look at what you see now and say this could be a win in a larger percentage than that? a lot of these states are still close. >> we're looking at right now, we have model data and we're looking to reach a certain level of statistical significance to make a call. we're looking at the outstanding vote. in the case of georgia, we were modelling 835,000 outstanding votes amount lion's share were coming from suburban, atlanta. she needed to hit 55, 56%. she was getting 45%. at a certain level, that is a statistical impossibility. the more data you get, the less room she has to grow or do better than she's been performing. that triggered the call in georgia. we're not there yet in the other states but may not be an election to be here until thursday or friday. >> bret: when you say do home,

relax, you're saying not yet? >> see if they continue to count. arizona an nevada have been stubborn about that. in nevada, they don't allow any counting until the last vote has been cast. that's why we're getting nothing from nevada so far. ari arizona, it's coming in. michigan is counting 54, 55%. wisconsin at 2:00 a.m. in 2020 had counted 99% of the votes. a chance that we might have an update in wisconsin, maybe michigan. we may have some resolution more quickly than we thought. >> bret: in pennsylvania, sean talked about this earlier. the early vote and what that looked like and what she would have to do day of in philadelphia and those counties around there. is it possible that that is still out there and it's possible to do? >> it seemed to be a probability diminishing by the hour. you know, this is something from the georgia data. we've seen it in pennsylvania.

young african american men did not come home. part of the african american vote came home to her. but a lot of it didn't. there's a gender gap there. the georgia -- i think -- i have to run the numbers. i'm not going to lay this at the feet of any group in particular. but she really did seem to underachieve amongst young african american males. >> martha: makes me think about michelle obama and barack obama and the very strong appeals that they made. michelle obama said, you know, don't let your hugs or boyfriends rage dictate your vote. president obama talked about bringing out the brothers and scolding them. that does not seem to have been a strategy that worked. >> bret: darren, the fox news voter analysis track with what you saw with raw vote as you went around the states? >> what we did early on, we get the vote from indiana and kentucky and allows us to figure

out, is it performing consistent with the data. a couple of states where trump overperformed. florida is one. we were concerned that we might be overestimating trump's performance in rural areas. the more data we got, the more that didn't seem to be the case. he was hitting what we thought he would hit. so -- >> bret: we've got the brain here. anybody else have a question for darren? >> i'm curious about immigration and what you have seen in terms of how much that played in to the votes in some of these states. >> the one thing we can say is that it didn't repel people. in particular, there was some talk about the hispanic vote coming home over the issue of immigration. that did not seem to happen much at all. it was suggested 40% with trump's performance among latinos. that was within 13 or 14 points of harris. the day before the election, he

would get 40% of the hispanic vote, that's a tough night for democrats to win an election in. >> some reporting that trump has won erie county, pennsylvania. does that square -- >> it was an a knife's edge. i don't know if bill has the latest data. >> go over here. >> part of her hope. >> went back to the trump team. right now currently to keep you up to date, he leads by a point. 1.4. it's a little less than 2,000 raw votes. >> 99% in or -- >> statewide 90%. darren, i have a question for you. when you think about the blue wall, the upper midwest, when we're at the convention in milwaukee in july, it ended on a thursday. on a friday we had that nash name computer glitch. all of the airports were shut down. so all of the delegates and all the journalists and campaign votes were stranded at the airport in milwaukee.

i was still thinking of the time about, you know, why did i just see kid rock and why did i see hulk hogan and dana white? i went to the campaign. i said what's going on there? it was men. it was white men. they said we noticed in the upper midwest thinking ant minnesota, wisconsin, michigan, ohio and pennsylvania. that's what they were thinking about. they said we noticed there was a certain percentage of white men that voted in 2016, sat out 2020 and we're trying to win them back. is there evidence that those white mail -- males did that tonight? >> a rule of thumb that we -- we spoke about this earlier in conversation with ya'll. but the gender gap is a double edge sword. it can help our hurt. if trump was hitting 55% with men, that was a good sign.

if harris was hitting 55% with women, that was a good sign. in the upper midwest states, he was getting closer to that sort of magic number than she was. so we call it the bro strategy or whatever. it seems to have paid some dividends up there. still -- we're still waiting. it's looking good for him. >> bret: we can say that the poll that we don't talk about in iowa was kind of off? the des moines register poll? >> i love ann. she's a giant in our field. what seltzer said that senior women were breaking away from trump over the abortion issue. i think our friendsean had a really good observation. it may be true but may not help harris.

that could occur in iowa but maybe not in other states. >> bret: what is happening in minnesota? >> they have stopped counting votes. >> really? after all we've been through? >> we're at a level where we're close to statistical significance. it's not quite there yet. there are -- >> is tim walz? charge of that? >> rumor has it. >> bret: we have to let you go. you have more data crunching to do. >> thanks, darren. >> thank you. >> nice to see you guys. >> bret: let's check in with aishah hasnie at the trump campaign head >> hey, you guys. all signs are pointing to perhaps imminent remarks from the former president. a short while ago somebody went onto the stage right behind me and put up the glass for the teleprompter, so perhaps somebody will be speaking to the

crowd here shortly, and that might be the former president. we've got eyes outside. a security detail is outside watching to see if the motorcade arrives from mar-a-lago. i did get a video from someone at the mar-a-lago party short while ago. folks are jubilant and cheering and clapping. they had fox news on the screen watching as we were calling states and more races the former president. the excitement is climbing every minute and people who are anxiously awaiting to see if the former president shows up here tonight. and perhaps gives a victory speech. back to you. >> martha: thank you very much. we'll head back there as former president trump is about to take the stand and speak there. we'll keep a close eye on that. 1:00 a.m. in new york. the polls have just closed in alaska.