(captioned by closed captioning services, inc.) independence day, everybody. >> watch the after the show show. brenda: a shocker from sarah palin sparking political fireworks over this july 4th holiday. stepping down as governor of alaska. governor palin's spokes woman saying she is ready to lead a national campaign against the push for bigger government and taxes feel that has some here saying that is great news for america's economy and markets. happy independence day. i'm brenda buttner and this is bears bears. [captioning made possible by fox news channel] brenda: here they are this week. welcome to everybody. toby, the soon to be former governor of alaska taking on a

more national role. >> our economy and market is getting more scared to death each day of what spending a trillion dollars a year that we don't have, about creating a nanny state and healthcare plan we can't afford. the market is saying wait a minute, how are we going to pay for it? and if sarah palin can get traction to fight back and give a voice to millions of americans who are waking up to this idea that we can't spend our way to prosperity, i say you go. brenda: eric, what do you say? effectively there is no one voice on the other side that is powerful enough to stop any of this. >> she represents individual liberty, smaller government, less spending. the important issues on the table. national healthcare, cap and trade. these will cost a lot of money that could torpedo the economy. you are talking stock market,

labor market, housing market. we lost 14 million people out of work, 9.5% unemployment. there are other parts of the economy that would help with smaller government, taxes and spending brenda: if she becomes this voice juliet opposing those policies that are moving quickly through d.c., does that help the economy? >> she can become an effective voice. i think that that is a very big if. but she could have some effect. being a woman, going through what she has just been through on a very national stage, i think it is possible. but on the other hand we could be overestimating sarah palin's effectiveness as a spokesperson and the effectiveness she could have on changing the markets. brenda: you are behind the policies that obama is pushing such as --

>> yes. brenda: gary b, good news or bad news for the economy? >> well, look, juliet makes a good point. if is big. let's stipulate that everything comes true and she becomes this national voice. yes, absolutely. you really have a choice. if you think obama's policies, from healthcare to obama motors to on and on for crying out loud, if you think those are good for the economy then her message is the wrong one. if you disagree, then her message is spot on. and the fact of the matter is we are kind of leaving it to the republican congress and there doesn't seem to be any one effective unifying voice. so there is a void there and if she can get that across and turn the tide back, then, yes, i'm on the side of her, obvious limit i think she has the right message per what eric and toby were saying. brenda: pat, there's been a constant drum beat of what wall street may see as negative news

from out of washington. national healthcare, trillion dollar deficits, all the rest. if sarah palin is able to come out and stand for fiscal conservatism, good or bad news for the economy? >> if i had several billion dollars and less hair and lived in omaha i would be warren buffet. these ifs are fairly large. but in terms of the question to garry b i think it it is minimal because the market is wrestling with the highest structural unemployment in 50 years. we lost 5.5 million jobs in the last six months and we may just have a larger structural rate of unemployment as we restructure from a highly lunched consumer led economy to something more appropriate for the next 20 years. that takes time and is difficult and i think that is a bigger issue than whichever voice is leading. brenda: he would be warren buffet and you would be brad

pitt. >> exactly. see. but i think we are at the inflection point that the honeymoon for obama is running out quick and you see that, wait a minute, they were planning on 8% unemployment to after the stimulus, they were saying we would have 4% g.d.p. growth in 2011 and that ain't going to happen with people saving. this is the time, and the rest of the republican leaders seem to be march interested in brazil. so if she is the one, you go, girl. brenda: eric? >> toby says it all. they banked on a lot of ifs one of them a growth rate of returns that hasn't happened. brenda: the obama administration. >> the obama administration. most of the things they sold us on, higher taxes, cap in trade to pay for it was going to be on

this bigger growth return in the economy and it doesn't happen, it doesn't look like it is happening. sarah palin may be the right person at the right time to turn the economy around. brenda: julie, what do you say? >> i think we need to give the stimulus time to work. brenda: we will get into that in the next topic but bottom line, if you are an advisor to the obama administration do you t s think this will have an impact on the economy? >> i don't. we overestimate the effectiveness of sarah palin to knock the obama administration off its message or off of the, what the american people are supporting. brenda: brad -- or toby. >> a lot of people underestimated this person including me and if she can be the savior, who do we have left? brenda: that has to be the last word. up next, they are back. tea party protesters rallying calling for the government to

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and ethics investigations. you can log on to foxnews.com for more. brenda: the tea parties are

back, protesters all over america this independence day. one of the big beefs, hundreds of billions in stimulus bucks. they want their money back. on the same week we learned the jobless rate hit a 26-year high in june. >> the recovery act was designed to make sure that local school districts didn't lay off teachers and firefighters and police officers and it has done its job. brenda: well, so, if stimulus has done its job are the tea partiers right? >> sure, give it back because working the problem is it is not working. we saw 9.5% unemployment. 14 million out of work. states are saying how are we going to balance this budget? we will lay off teachers, firemen, the people he said won't won't have to lay off they will have to lay off to balance

budgets. brenda: it is no surprise to see the jobless rate go up, the amount spent on the stimulus has been mainly for transfer payments. that doesn't create jobs. >> bush wasn't not guilty here. if we did $264 billion that was going to keep us out of the recession and the unemployment rate was 4.6%. stimulus doesn't work. if we wanted this to work we would do a three-year, maybe a five-year moratorium an capital gains and people invested in new business and old business. if we did that we would have so many jobs created. people would be protesting against there are too many jobs. brenda: julia, in all fairness the unemployment is what is called a lagging indicator telling us where we have been. but the trend is not in the right direction. should we just give this money back? >> first of all, we haven't taken the money yet. we have taken it from china that

we would have to pay back at some point, and only 10% of the stimulus money has been sent out to the states at this point. what they have done is they did use this money to cover their budget short falls which has meant that the state and localities have not had to lay off critical workers -- >> come on. all the money went to california, there were $250 billion in transfer payments that lrnlly went to campbell and it is the seventh largest economy in the world and it is imploding. how can you say it helped? it put a little finger in a big gash. >> how bad would it be if we didn't do it at all? >> how big would i be if there was not a restaurant next to my house? brenda: give the money back, gary b? >> i don't see how you can have any class. no matter which way you look, if it working, great, don't spend

any more and stoke the flames of inflation. if it isn't working and by all accounts it is is not, i would say why do you want to throw good money after bad? it started with bush and pelosi. you have spent already billions and i say well it is not working so let's spend more? >> it is an investment. remember, it is an investment. brenda: pat, is cutting a check the best thing to do? we are becoming more savers, not spenders. >> never thought i would live to see the day but we tried this sort of send checks directly to people last spring and as we saw a fair amount of it was saved. think of the job loss and stock market going down, people are more scared about their financial futures than a year ago. that means there is a propensity to save. the odds that they save extra income is higher.

so if you give them direct checks it would fatten up the savings rate. doesn't create jobs and get the economy going. brenda: you hear about this bright idea in that new clean energy bill? you can't sell your home until the government says so. why a new green police washington wants to create to monitor your home will get you red mad. that is on cavuto. and lawmakers taking lavish and lawmakers taking lavish trips on your dime from

that is a recipe for lasting change.

brenda: you know this, tough times have americans tightening their belts this july 4th weekend. fewer folks traveling over the holiday. so far this year travel is down 11%. different for congress. lawmakers taxpayer paid travel ballooning 50% the last two years for trips such as nancy pelosi's eight-day trip to italy on the way to the middle east. $58,000. $22,000 to check out tortoises. gary b, are they tripping? >> i pull my hair out at this point. but i don't have any more hair pulls left in me. this is the definition of a boondoggle. we are all, every person in the united states, seems to be kind of battening down the hatches, pulling up our shoe strings and

these guys are spending like there is no tomorrow. i would throw out all of them. brenda: there is a little bit of hypocrisy because they grilled the c.e.o.'s. >> they are doing the same thing. it is jamaica, cayman islands. unbelievable. they are spending your money. brenda: julia, pelosi says she was working in italy. >> she was visiting the air force base and let's be clear. that trip was a bipartisan trip as most of these trips are. brenda: it is not that it democratic. it is both sides of the aisle. >> and since 2005 when the new ban on lobbyist-paid trips went into effect they continue taking the trims but they were being paid by the taxpayers. now which frankly i would prefer the taxpayers influencing members of congress rather than the lawmakers.

brenda: toby, you are a world traveler and you actually think that it is a good thing they go on these? >> not the galapagos but only 7% of congressmen have had their passport stamped outside of canada and mexico, yet we are talk about trillions of dollars. i want my congress people to have a concept of the world outside of possess tetopeka or . i want them to understand a him bit of the world and you have to travel. >> paris, middle east. brenda: it may take more than a trip to have the knowledge. >> you need to travel. brenda: pat, you are less charitable than toby is. >> i think it is that the spending was up tenfold the past decade so that means either the u.s. has become 10 times more int interconnected in the global economy in the past decade -- no

-- or people are just spending more and traveling more than they need to. getting that foreign exposure is fine, but again doing it in a rational fashion which probably doesn't include turtles is a better way to do it. brenda: up 50% the last two years. thanks, guys. julia, thank you. we appreciate your being here. do you want to really know how good these guys are at picking stocks? stay tuned. we have their best. we have their best. i'm sorry guysysysysysys.ysys

ok. oomph. i'm a mommy. i love kids! i'm responsible, loving, nurturing. ahhh! yea whooo! no no no no no! don't touch that. [squeak squeak] stop, stop! ahhhhh! whoa! being a parent's a lot of work. where's mommy?

here i am! sid: [laugh] ha ha, no, stop, stop. brenda: who made the best and worst calls so far in 2009 and how can you still profit from them? right now, pat kicks it off. number four, back in january you said schering-plough was the stock to own. up 28%. is it still a good investment? >> no, it is not. they have the best pipeline. merck has a lot of issues. these integrations never go well. sell it. brenda: barry b you said goldman sachs up 50% since then. still bank on it? >> i don't think so. even from the march lows they

pad the record, up almost 180%. i don't like the market the next few months. if you have profits in goldman sell. brenda: eric, you said speak the language of money with bai in du. does it have more to give? >> you are up 95%. take it, take the money and run. live to trade another day. brenda: but, now, for the number one call so far of 2009, if you talk to toby you would know this because he has been bragging for a while but with good reason. you predicted the bank bailout would work and bank of america would be up 100%. up 107%. how much more does it are to give? >> if you don't own it i think we will get a pullback per gary's point because if you look at the earnings power i think it is $2.50 next year.

and that says it is probably worth $20 to $22. brenda: that is what we watch for but we do the 3w5d and good. saving the worst for last, gary b at the end of december your best call for nine was fannie mae. it was your worst call. down 21% so far. what happened and what do you do if you own it? >> well, this is a kind of stock it can move 21% in a day it is so inexpensively priced. i would hold it. it is still a government-owned monopoly. i think it will have a good future. brenda: on to number three, tobin, you may have had the best to invest but you don't have the best of worst. you said the market rally would be a memory and to play the other way t.v.a. feels your pick. it down 51%.

>> first, it was great for two days. that is a trading stock. do you see the twitter.com.com? it was a bad call long term but it is a short-term trading vehicle. any time we talk about these you should be on twitter because we sold it. brenda: depending on whatever two days you have it. i predict you will not hear on this segment "i was wrong." eric, you said short financials. i throw that back at you. s.k.f. is down 53%. >> let's see, it was up five minutes -- it wasn't a great trade. but it was a little bit of hedge. i think you should own it because i think we may see a downside. brenda: now, for the worst call so far in 2009, pat, that is rare. but in february you predicted that commercial real estate was

dead. s.r.s. is down 69%. explain yourself, pat. >> i was wrong. brenda: that is awesome. very quickly. i want to hear from everybody if they think the market will be up or down by the end of this year. >> end of the year it will be up. we will flatten out, collect ourselves and go higher. brenda: pat? you don't know? >> we might be up marginally but not much. brenda: gary b? >> i will take the other side. i think we will be down marginally. brenda: finally, prop man. >> i would say llph. life, liberty, pursuit of happiness. let's start with something positive. it is getting smoky in here. brenda: market up or down? >> up the next three months. brenda: fireworks, these ain't