he only has 15 seconds to get here. run, run! >> thanks for watching on this saturday. maybe he'll be here. >> see you tomorrow at 7 a.m. will this be the first, or will we all be met with a gigantic bill? this is "bulls&and bears." let's get to it.

welcome to everybody. ok. who has got it right, the tea party proi protestors or the president, not a dime added to the deficit. do you buy it? >> not a dime but a dollar. this healthcare program is not just going to cost $the 0 -- it is not just going to cost $900 billion, it is going to cost ten times that. when medicare started in 1965, they estimated by 2003 it would cost $23 billion. you know what it cost? $245 billion. the veterans hospital, they have doubled the budget. the post office, $9 billion loss this year, and they have a monopoly, for crying out loud!

how anyone will think that this will come in ten times what what owe bum ma -- obamas estimates is living in another world. >> 63% of americans believe it will add to the deficit. what do you think? >> the president was clear that he will not sign a bill that adds to the deficit. he will realize cost savings in medicare and reduce the number of payments or amount of payments paid out to hospitals right now, which the industry has already agreed to. secondly, he is going to increase efficiency, once we get people out of treating in e.r.'s and into their primary care system, and thirdly, we're going to look at the cash flow coming in from the sunsetting of the bush tax cuts, something that cost $1.3 trillion, more than this entire plan. >> so a lot of this is going to be coming from squeezing out fraud and inefficiency.

do you buy that? >> well, i'd like to see it happen first. you know, the plan that we're talking about will not go into effect until 2013. why don't we squeeze this waste and fraud out of medicare in 2010 and 2011, and if the president is able to squeeze out waste and fraud, which we know isn't going to happen, because even richard nixon 30 years ago was talking about cutting waste and fraud out of medicare. if he is able to, then we will let him take over 1/6 of our economy. i don't believe the president is right on his numbers. >> he promised he would do this, so it will be done. >> i promised you i would get a big necklace for your birthday this year, and where is it? >> i promised i would lose ten pounds for the new year. >> exactly. we could mandate actual database prodescriptive work on our

paying system, and we could take about 7 to 8% out of medicare and medicaid. it has been proven in other industries. they didn't say we would do that. number two, the real issue is if we would tax the benefits like compensation, which it is. if we remove this insane idea that you can get a $30,000 health plan but that's not compensation, we cannot only pay for it, but we will drop utilization about 10%. >> that's not even on the table, though. >> but of course, so that's why that is a fallacy. >> we have a system in which there are no incentives for insurance companies to cut any costs. >> sure there is, take a profit! >> it doesn't make a savings to the taxpayers. they have tried to increase their profits over and over again, which we are now seeing them doing.

the profit margins for insurance companies, on average is 3%. >> and if you can compete across state lines, it would be a lower profit margin. >> i have to let pat get in here. you have been skeptical about cost containment and this plan. after hearing the president, were you convinced that not a dime would be added to the deficit? >> the way i look at it, it is simply a matter of focus. right now, cost savings are a way to get to this increased coverage, and unfortunately, i think the wrong set of priorities. cost savings have to come first. what the system costs now, the fact that we can spend money that is essentially not ours. we have compensation that is not taxed, such as toby and i have talked about over and over again. these are the things that misalign the system. until we literally blow things up and realign the system to one that actually aligns costs with what it actually is the cost,

the coverage has to come second, because the curb is you unsustainable the way things are right now. >> i think, you know, in response to some of the tara's points, she has to dig beyond the obama talking points. for example, the $600 billion that he's talking about saving on medicare waste and abuse. that is from a darkness study. do people put together that study? i mean, really, most of the expenditures in that don't come from medicare. they come from people paying their own way. will we all be paid for? yes, that's what obama is saying, but that's before the plan even goes in place. it is all hypothesis. it is absolutely silly. >> one other quick point -- >> hold on. let me get tara in there first. >> i know it is hard to believe that a government program can do good, but let's look at medicare, which is one of the

more popular programs in this country, that when it was proposed ronald reagan said would lead to socialism, that it would lead to doctors being assigned to where they could practice and what states they could live in. none of that has happened. we have happy seniors actually getting healthcare. >> of course they're happy, because when they started it, people resigned at 62 and the life-span was 68. now we have $30 billion of unfunded liability, promises we have made that we have not funded yet. that's why they're happy, because they will be dead by the time $37 trillion comes around! >> but we have to look at ways to treat people better and smarter. >> we have 78 million boomers who are hitting the rolls that we haven't even paid. for you can be efficient and god

and not make this thing work. >> pat, you wanted to get in a point, too? >> i think it is wrong to tax the insurers rather than taxing the plans themselves. the insurers have been a force for cost containment. remember the hmo problems and people hated them years ago because they rationed care? they have to ration care, because that's the only way to keep costs down. i would say that health insurance has helped far more than they have hurt in terms of cost containment. >> i think there are two things here. we have to create a marketplace in which they have an incentive to compete against something that has been systemized and streamlined. the only thing insurance companies are are in it for is for their bottom line, not healthcare. >> that's the business. >> last word.

>> on efficiency, medicare does not have total quality care, but private insurance companies do. they look at the whole care package. they look at drug interactions, look at which work and what doesn't. medicare doesn't do that. private insurance does and they make the medical system better. we will know more about this as it goes along. as the president gets ready for more alleys, companies are jumping off a financial cliff with their insurance plans and meet the new pro manufacturing czar. some say that they will kill factory jobs, not increase them. clear

clear um bill-- why is dick butkus here? i hired him to speak. a lot of fortune 500 companies use him. but-- i'm your only employee. we're gonna start using fedex to ship globally-- that means billions of potential customers.

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>> good morning, everyone. from america's news headquarters i'm jamie colby. family members have cancelled the wedding of a missing yale university student, annie lee, 24, who vanished from the university's medical lab, set to get married tomorrow. her purse, cell phone and credit cards were found in the office at the lab. now more than 100 investigators and the f.b.i. are searching for clues to her disappearance. yale is offering a $10,000 reward for information. police are revealing new details

about the killing of pro life demonstrator james hulian, shot dead outside a high school while he was protesting abortion. harlan drake is charged with his murder. drake shot and killed another man and police believe he would have killed another if they hadn't killed him. >> we now have a manufacturing czar. meet ron bloom. he's got strong union ties and the president thinks he's the man to bring more factory jobs back to america. he's a former union official. as a banker, he represented many unions. he was the auto czar helping out the unions with g.m. and chrysler. is he the right man to create manufacturing job? >> well, remember, these are good manufacturing jobs. good means union. if you look at the studies, there are five different studies ooh throughout the united kingdom and britain, no, he is

not the guy. you have a job structure that is usually 20 to 30% higher in cost. every time you have that where there is labor available in other parts of the world 25% less, jobs go there. mexico is my favorite one. there it costs $900 to take a container off in long beach. it is $250 in mexico. guess what? there is a gigantic move of containers going to mexico. >> is he going to help create manufacturing jobs? >> absolutely bloom will be, but two points to the point there. first off, this is a guy who has worked for fortune 500 companies and labor unions. he has done restructuring deals from the cars this past year to steel in 2000 that involved bringing labor and corporations to the table and asking for sacrifices from both and earning the respect of both parties. that's what it is going to take to rebuild our hartland jobs. to unions, we are doctors spairnlging talking about organizations that represent

those people who take those working jobs in the heartland. >> how so? >> for better compensation for all those individuals, particularly for women who, earn $11,000 less. >> boy, that is fabulous representation! >> you want to talk about looking across the seas? look at germany, who has greater compensation than our jobs do, even our union jobs here in america, and yes, they maintain a juggernaut on the car industry and other manufacturing jobs. >> and much higher un'em employment, and 50% tax rate, but go ahead. >> i'm willing to accept the points but they don't scwief with what she is saying. there is a study right here at georgia state university that across the board, any metric you measure a union company versus non-union, lower profitability,

less efficient use of resources and they grow more slowly than non-union firms. in 1973 to 2006, almost every job lost in the u.s. in manufacture came from a union company. yeah, maybe he is the greatest union official in the world but unions is where they're losing it. why? because companies like newspapers and airlines and auto are just not competitive with non-unions! >> there is a shift needed to the way we make money in america. >> well, an interesting thing. unions are ran akronism. for a time and place that has already happened. at the start of the 20th century we needed them to represent people. right now, modern day unions not helping us manufacturing and staying competitive.

the problem is union work rules. go back to the car companies. the u.a.w. has union work rules that ran into thousand of pages t made the workers unflexible, unresponsive and unproductive. you cannot compensate people for performance under a union contract, so people don't have any incentive to perform better and to make more money for the company. that's the biggest problem. unions take away the incentive. >> pat, you have heard both sides of the argument. what do you say? >> well, i think it's difficult to try to say unions are bad, unions are good, because let's look at u.p.s. and fedex. one is unionized and one is not. they both do just fine. they both have done fine. the biggest issue is a shift in the job base of our country from manufacturing jobs to service sector. that's not going to change, no matter whether it is ron bloom or mother teresa in the white house. it is an ongoing shift and we're still maintaining a lot of high value manufacturing jobs in this

country, where the high skilled jobs stay here. low value added assembly jobs go overseas an frankly, they should. >> the high value jobs are not nawnized, are not unionized, and you brought two examples where it wasn't but the oversquall trend is no working is part of the problem. >> thanks, guys. another good debate. so the president ready to give another speech on overhauling the financial system monday. it marks the one-year anniversary of the financial meltdown. someone here says it will also mark the day the market rebounds.

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boy, talk about a move up after the meltdown. the dow soaring 45% since hitting the 12-year low in march. tobin, what a difference a year makes. are we going up or down from leer? >> we're going up. remember, we aren't even back to where we were before september 14. part of the reflex is that oh, my gosh, we're not going into a depression but the second part is about the cash. our target is 1200 for the s&p 500, another 10%, and one of the reasons is that unemployment is going to stay relatively high in the united states and around the world. all the central banks that put all that cash out there, you're getting a quarter percent in a money market account. there is no return other than in the stock market.

money goes where it is best treated, that's why we're going to 1200. >> president obama is scheduled to speak on wall street, a major policy address to talk about regulations and the rest. do you think that will stop the rebound in its tracks? >> i do. in fact, it would be ironic, because his speech, i think, is going to match up perfectly with the charts in this case. why the speech? obama has said time and time again that he is a big proponent of capitalism but his actions say that he is almost the enemy of capitalism, and by virtue of that, he is almost the enemy of wall street. sure, he'll say yeah, we're in this together, but it will be like big government is the best and you're lucky we bailed you out. chart-wise, i think the market has gone almost straight up. we are overbought. it has been low volume. the consumer now, you know, joe six-pack, if you will, like myself, is only now just starting to put money into the market. sure enough. that's got to be because the

market is up over 50% since last september. >> i think we will go sideways. i think we could pull back a little bit over the next three to five weeks but i think we're going side sideways. when we hit late october, early november, i think we get another leg up on the market and it goes through next summer. >> pat? >> i'm less sang wine than tobin. i believe we are not going into a financial armageddon. that is a good thing, but the issue is that the market is pricing a stronger recovery than we're likely to have because the consumer is not saving. they are cutting back on credit. there is less money salable to spend t doesn't mean we're going into a double digit recession or going down to 650 on the s&p 500. what it does mean is that we will have to pause and take a breath for quite a while because it will take time for the consumer and corporations to really start spending.

the big thing we saw in the last season, it was all cost cutting and until final end demand picks up, that's where we will get the power earnings going forward and that's what i need to get excited as opposed to just happy. >> you make so much sense that that possibly cannot happen! >> all right. on that note, want to know which recovery stocks will keep on rallying? then stick around for cavuto on business, and the outburst that caused outrage. how it will cause one stock to bake out.

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>> gary. >> brenda, i love joe wilson. a lot of other people know joe wilson because of one thing. they went after the outburst to google and to youtube to see it, and i'll tell you what, i think the stock is going up 50%. google has proven itself indispensable, a 0% in the next two years. >> do you like that stock? >> indispensable. >> do you like it or not? >> i can't get too excited about it. >> did you see the news on

airlines? ertheir ontime performance in jy was 77.6% of flights arrived on time. now, how to play this in the economy expanding and growing if oil stays below the dow jones concentration average. iyt. if the economy recovers, play it, up 40% over the next half hour. welcome to the show, by the way. >> it is a little overbought. it needs a pullback and then i would buy it, but good pick. >> pat, your prediction? >> thermofisher scientific. they are a pick and shovel provider to people at big banking companies and it removes a lot of uncertainty and then you get spending back from the big life science companies. >> gary, do you like it? >> ditto what i said about todd's pick. >> tobin?