democrats are contradicting themselves. they'll say yes, we have the votes, and others say we might be a couple short now but we think we'll get there, and others say we have the totals. what we'll be watching for in the next couple of hours is if any of the lawmakers who were expressing misgivings come out and say that ultimately they're planning on voting no. if democratic lawmakers say in the next few hours, they'll be expressing their opposition to this, it signals that the democratic leadership has enough votes to pass it and it becomes a signal to those democrats in areas where the bill is particularly unpopular that they can vote against it. nancy pelosi's ability to twist arms in the last couple of hours is well known among democrats and republicans. she is effective. politics are the art of persuasion and she can be very, very tough. >> it's legendary. and a lot of folks we haven't heard from whether they're a yes or no. at this stage, are there people who are still undecided?

>> probably not. there are democrats and republicans, mostly democrats, obviously, the centrist democrats who have been essentially trying to calculate the politics of this vote and whether or not they'll be around after the midterms. the democrats want to push hell care. bart stupak supports much of the principles but said he can't vote for it because there's not a strict enough ban on taxpayer abortion. and so there are specific parts of it. they'll like to vote for it, but the question is whether or not they can and survive. if the vote gets over 216 for democrats, there's a handful

. our next guest said the democrats trample on the constitution. we have a very buyscy day. he is the republic house chairman. thank you for your time. >> thank you. >> what do you make of late reports that congressman bart stupak is still in negotiations with the white house and there's no done deal, but he's got 8 know votes, and they could make all the difference. >> they can make all the difference. there's simply no question now that the legislation they're trying to ram through the congress today with very little debate, virtually no amendments provides public funding for abortion. and i commend my friend, bart stupak for taking a strong and principled stand on this issue. i came from a worship service at

the u.s. capitol building and i know there are millions of americans that are praying today and specifically remembering those democrats that are standing in the gap, taking a stand for life. but again, there's no question now as the negotiations are going on at the white house, there's no question now as the catholic church has attest ted, the government takeover of health care include public funding for abortion, for the first time since roe v. wade. >> our polls continue to show growing opposition against health care reform in its current state, what's gonna be voted on there in the house and the numbers continue to grow and democrats seem to be out of touch with the polling numbers. why do you think there's a disconnect there? >> you have to ask them why there's a disconnect. i think your polling squares with what i saw in indiana. i've traveled around the country. and the american people oppose a

government takeover of health care and when you mandate that every american purchase health care whether they want it or need it or not and you mandate the tax increases to provide it and pay a fee to the feds and set in motion a system where tens of millions of americans will see their current health insurance canceled and be sent into this government-run program, that's a government takeover of health care. and the american people know we can do better and answer the challenges with more freedom and not more government. but you'd have to ask the other side of the aisle why they continue to drag themselves forward against the overwhelming opposition of the american people to jam this government takeover through the congress. >> and congressman, i'm sure you get this question, because i get it all the time from people opposed to the current health care legislation who say why not just repeal it when the republicans take over the house and senate?

can you put the toothpaste back in the tube or are you already strategizing about that? >> we're focused 100% on stopping this government takeover today on the floor of the congress. and despite the posturing that's being done by democrats and now conflicting statements that they have the votes, don't have the votes... look, we know the american people have the votes. that's not the president's house, that's not the speaker's house, that's the american people's house. you're gonna see republicans take to the floor today, take a stand with a handful of democrats and i believe we can still stop this bill in its track and go to work on the kind of health care reform that will lower the cost of health insurance without growing the size of government. >> congressman, we know it's a busy day, thank you for your time. >> thank you. >> the british airways is throwing a wrench in travel plans for thousands.

they're promising more strikes in coming weeks as britain prepares for a hotly contested general election. it has disrupted flight schedules and more plains than expected are taking off. the race is so tight in the parliamentary election that nuri al-maliki is calling for a recount and said the country could return to violence if the demand isn't met. about 92 pirz of the counting is complete. new results show that allawi is about 8,000 votes head of nuri al-maliki. a spokesperson for israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu said the premier will meet with president barack obama on tuesday. the white house has not confirmed that. nettia into will be in washington for a speech on monday night. this comes as a time of heightened tensions between the u.s. and israel after netanyahu said he would not restrict settles in

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#♪ there's been a lot of negotiating and arm twisting a capitol hill all week long. on the eve of this important vote in the house, a lot of lawmakers disagree about what the bill does or doesn't do, whether it saves money or adds

house democrats want to spend more than the senate and need more revenues and want to increase the amount going to subsidies to help american families making up to $80,000 a year buy health insurance. republicans argue that raising taxes and cutting medicare to cover more spending may look good on paper but not in reality. >> so everybody is paying a tax here.

it's a half a trillion dollars in new taxes, $523 billion of many taken from medicare not to expand its insolvency but to pay for the new government program. >> both the cbo says it counts the cuts in medicare by extending the life of the program but siphons off that money to spend on other subs sdis, thus spending the money twice. so the house democratic bill actually adds up, he claims, to $662 billion of deficit spending so a big disagreement here on the bottom line. >> very interesting. jim engle, thank you. right now, a prayer service for house members is wrapping up. joining is yous father frank who spoke at the service and the national service of priests for life. thank you for joining us this morning! >> thank you, good to be with you. >> tell us about the service this morning. >> it was very inspiring to stand there and be led in the

singing of amazing grace by the members of u.s. congress. in the early days of our nation, this building was used as church. and today, that tradition resumed as several hundred people in that room, many of them members of congress joined in prayer and reflection and scripture reading and in the affirmation we can't do this alone. on the day of this historic vote, it was a refreshing affirmation to hear. we need the wisdom of god and need prayer and joined in prayer and singing together right here in the capitol. >> we know that abortion is a big issue in this bill. federal funding for abortion, and that you are very active in pro-life causes, are you confident that something can be worked out that would actually give you 100% assurance that federal dollars would not be used to fund abortions in any way? >> to have complete insurance, it has to be said and guaranteed. and that's a lot of the problem in the course of this debate. people claiming that it does and

people claiming it doesn't. if it doesn't, then say so. we'll have to look closely at what happens today, what comes out of the congress, what comes out of the white house. and as time goes on, any ainsurance we don't have on this, or if unfortunately money does start pouring into the abortion industry as never before, i'm confident that the american people will correct that. and fortunately, our system, of course, gives us many ways to correct that and we'll have to work together to correct whatever damage is done today, if any. >> father, we that much for your time today. we know it's a busy one so thanks for taking it out to visit with us. >> my pleasure. the attorney general of virginia is planning to sue the federal government if this health care bill passes and he is far from being the only one. he'll join us after the break to tell us if he's got a case. ♪ [ male announcer ] how do you turn a washer into a whole new way to custom-clean and care for clothes? by turning the drum five different ways.

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♪ it's health -- if health care reform passes, attorneys general say they will file suit. they say it violates state sovereignty. do they have a case? let's talk to the attorney general from virginia. thank you for coming in today. >> glad to. >> tell us about legal challenges you would plan to mount if it passes in its current form. >> sure. our house passed a bill, an anti-mandate bill that would protect virginia citizens from being health accountable for being mandated to buy health insurance. so if the federal bill passes, the two will be in conflict. as most people recall from civics class, the supremacy clause would normally lead to

the federal law trumping the state law, but there's a caveat and that is is that the federal law has to be constitutionally sound and that's where the conflict comes. it's our position that the health care bill as drafted right now is not constitutional in its reliance on the commerce clause because they're overreaching the authority they have under the commerce clause. >> you've got a lot of company in this argument in recent days and weeks. >> we do. >> we've seen a number of attorneys general, florida, idaho, that may be planning similar action, are you sharing research and ideas? >> we certainly will do that. there's been a lot of activities among attorneys general. my chief deputy has been talking to other offices in particular. i think it obviously all depends on today. if the vote doesn't pass, then this discussion goes away. i think there's something of a growing expectation that they may have the votes. just behavior we're seeing on

capitol hill and so forth. so we're preparing and will have our pleading ready. each of us would rather naturally file in our own district, so we'll go across the street in richmond and file in the eastern district of virginia, known as the rocket docket. and if you're in jackson, mississippi, you file there and so on across the country f you compare that to the recent filings in the epa in greenhouse gas endangerment, we're all in the d.c. court of appeals. so that's a unified commemorate and all the states are together on one complaint and we added 13 more this past week, but in the health care ballots, in the courts, it will be in each state. states may join one another, but you could see an awful lot of independent cases going forward. >> i wanna ask you quickly, how long do you think it will take for this to play out because implementation of the bill could take years, will this fight takes years, as well?

>> likely it will. the mandate doesn't kick in until 2013, that doesn't block the commencement of the lawsuits. the eastern district of virginia is called the rocket doctor for a -- docket for a reason. we should expect the argument within months. and then everybody expects however loses at that level will appeal. we'd be in the fourth circuit. that's pretty quick itself, maybe a year there. and perhaps a little more depending on whether we go to a three-judge panel or all 12 judges hearing it at once. and it's hard for me to imagine a scenario except automatic the circuit courts of appeal come to the same conclusion that doesn't lead to the supreme court at least in a couple of years. >> we'll see if it gives you a lot of legal work for the years to come. >> that's right. >> attorney general general from virginia, thank you for coming

in. >> thank you for having me. >> it's the president's top domestic priority. but all the democrats aren't exactly marching in lock step. we'll talk to someone who is not in favor of the health care bill and hear what he thinks. that's next. . a day on the days that you have arthritis pain, you could end up taking 4 times the number... of pills compared to aleve. choose aleve and you could start taking fewer pills. just 2 aleve have the strength... to relieve arthritis pain all day. sweet & salty nut bars... they're made from whole roasted nuts and dipped in creamy peanut butter, making your craving for a sweet & salty bar irresistible, by nature valley. let's wind 'em with precision. open our throttle to even more selection. and turn that savings swagger up full tilt. ♪ so when the time comes to bust open a can of doing...

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♪ the house health care bill gets under way shortly. caroline shively is standing by with that and all the top stories.

>> house democratic leaders are predicting victory for the landmark bill to reform the american health care system. if it passes, it will be by the slimmest of margins. democrats believe they'll have the 216 needed to pass the plan but haven't nailed down commitments from a handful of members. republicans promise to make democrats pay in fall elections. the red river continues to rise between minnesota and north dakota. the minnesota officials say they're prepared to handle the influx of water. the river is supposed to crest today at 20 feet above flood stage but predicted to be below the number of sandbags in place. ten people are dead following an explosion in the helmand province earlier today. the civilians were killed by a suicide bombing. seven people were injured in the attack, which took place on a busy road filled with merchants. a volcano has erupted next a glacier in southern iceland,

forcing about 450 people to evacuate as a precaution. there were no immediate reports of danger or of damage or injuries. those are your top stories right now. shannon, back to you. >> thank you very much, caroline. up until today, all the attention has been focused on the house. but what happens in the senate? james rosen is following the latest and explains how it all happens. >> democratic leaders in the senate say the upper chamber will take up whatever reconciliation package they receive next week. what happens after is up in the air. during the intense meetings on capitol hill between president obama and house democrats, senate majority leader harry reid was seeking to make clear husband caucus won't leave colleagues in the lurch for voting for something they find objectionable. the reconciliation bill, reed

had collected the signatures of at least 51 senators, assuring house democrats of this. senate republicans citing polls that american people oppose the legislation are determined to block from it becoming law and indicated they will offer, quote, hundreds of amendments. >> we're going to help the american people understand by these amendments what is in the bill and why they are right when they think it's a bad bill. i mean, the american people don't want this bill, but our democrat friends seem determined to jam it down their throat regardless. and i think there will be serious consequences. >> i can't say what the parliamentary rulings will object every provision, but i can tell you we have a majority of the united states senate ready to vote for the reconciliation bill to move this forward for the president's signature. if there's some procedural problem we run into, we're gonna work through it. we're determined to get this done. >> republican lawmakers predicted the senate parliamentiparliamen

parliamentiparliamen parliamentian -- parliamentaryian. and could be sent back for a second vote. so if you're suffering from health care reform withdrawal, worry no more, there's something more to feast on. >> i was having that exact fear. thank you for allaying my fears the american academy of family physicians predicts a shortage of 40,000 family doctors by the year 2020. and a shortfall of perhaps 260,000 registered nurses by 2025. will the health care reform bill help or hurt that? dr. hine is here. thank you for come in today. >> surely. >> how do you think this legislation, the best we can understand it, will affect the influx or outflux of doctors and nurses? >> there are good things in this bill for primary care which is

why our academy has supported health care reform for more than 20 years. but what you see in this bill is provisions that would provide for a bonus for primary care, even as a result of this debate and the attention paid to primary care, we had the announcement of how many residents were choosing family medicine and the number has gone up so we think that that's a positive sign for creating the sort of work force that we need to take care of this nation. >> when you hear numbers like a shortage of 40,000 doctors and 240,000 nurses, it gets attention. >> it's significant. and we've been calling for this for quite some time. we're behind the power curve now, but we're making strides to fix that. and it's one of the things we see in the legislation. there's a call for a national commission on work force. so that we have a better idea of

what source of doctors do we need and how do we get there. we think that this bill provides the platform with which to move forward. it's not perfect. and there definitely is a shortage. >> we know that if it all plays out as it's been presented, millions more people will be covered and they will have health insurance and accessing doctors f we're talking about a shortage and more patients in the mix and cuts to medicaid, how is all that gonna play out? >> remember that right now, probably at least based on our surveys, at least 9 patients a week are being provided charity care in each physician's office. so when you have those 9 people covered, what that tells you is that the physician will start getting paid for work they're already doing so it's not like all of a sudden there are an influx. the other thing to remember is that the legislation calls for this to be gradually applied, in

which case then we also have time to work with the teams of physicians and the teams of providers so that we can take care of more of these communities. >> thank you very much for your time today. >> thank you. >> house democrats are working to nail down the final commitments for health care reform legislation, but not everyone on the left is supporting the bill. joining us now from new york is the former democratic policister and fox news contributor. good to see you today. why is it difficult for democrats to get this thing together? they're coming down to the final finish line. >> the public is overwhelmingly against the bill. and their passionate about it. and this has caused difficulty. the second problem is, they're trying to trade off all the interest groups to get a bill. and then after in massachusetts, we weren't gonna have one and now we're having one and the push here has been basically to get a bill done under the misillusion that if they didn't,

they would be more troubled than by passing it. so that's why we're doing it. >> we've heard, and there have been rumors, there have been things discussed publishically and privately about possible deals being made, about kickbacks and sweetheart deals. >> deals? >> and other kinds of things. we've seen it publically and there has been positive pressure, but that does not play well with the public. >> that's only the tip of the iceberg. the real pressure is inside the party that passes. remember, the president is now going to democrats and sat down with them and said my presidency will be destroyed if you vote against this health care bill. and remember, we weren't gonna do health care after massachusetts, we were gonna deal with jobs. and you have the sciu and other unions, telling democrats if they vote against the bill, they will get no funding in november. they're threatening to run primary candidates against them at moveon.org and willing to do anything to deliver people. and in the face and the teeth of

opposition that's overwhelming so when we find out everything that's been given away and done in this, it's much worse than it appears, much worse than you know. >> and along with those positive deals or pressure that have gone on, one washington insider said there's a lot of negative pressure going on behind closed doors, that hey, that subcommittee chairmanship you want may not be there. >> nancy pelosi has told people, they will lose their chairmanships and subcommittees, prime assignments. the punishment level that she is threatening in the house is unprecedented. and it's because she put her ego on the line. she's in san francisco. she is not gonna be speaker after november, but she is gonna keep her district. and the president, they put that down and these people are falling into line, and a lot of them know they're being asked to commit political suicide. what we have here is the

opponents of this plan are holding tea parties and the democrats will hold a kool-aid party. this is political jones town going on here. >> pat, we will find out in november. thank you for your time today it's down to the wire in health care. we've got a brand-new issue of fox news poll. we'll break it down for you, your opinions on this historic legislation. thumbs up, thumb down, we break it down, next.

♪ >> we're gonna have a vote. we're gonna have 216. >> they don't have the votes yet. >> some disagreement there. house members are about to start filing in. this is a live look. it's about to gavel into order in about 20 minutes, this is live from outside the house chamber. we'll keep an eye on it. if you want to stop, announce a vote, anything like that, we'll bring it to you live and keep

you updated as it all unfolds this afternoon. we're live all day. the house health care bill gets under way today. what will be the consequences for both parties if the bill passes? joining us is doug high and hari. so doug, let me start with you. if it does pass, what does the g.o.p. do with it and how do they capitalize. >> we'll start with talking about this issue for the rest of the election cycle. one of the things that was interesting, a report that nancy pelosi said in a conversation today in a conversation with steny hoyer, they don't want it to be 216. they want it 217 or 218, because they don't want any democrat to say they were the deciding vote on health care. they ought to want to stand up and say, by god, i was the deciding vote. but that tells you the political risk. and we're confident we'll make major gains.

>> and we're hearing once this passes and people see how it plays out they'll understand what a good deal is for the american public. >> i look forward to doug running on this issue. frankly, this bill is gonna increase competition, it will reduce at minivan costs, reduce risk and we'll be able to cover 95% of americans, lower premiums and provide the largest middle class tax cut on health care in history. if dog -- doug and the republicans wants to run on that, which is essentially a tax hike, getting rid of a prescription drug benefit. getting rid of maul business tax credits, that's fine, that's a debate we're confident we're gonna win in november. >> and we'll talk about november in just a second. i want to put up a poll here. this is out this week f you only have these two choices, would you vote to remove all incumbents or keep outline incumbents.

68% said remove all incumbents. >> by definition the democrats have an overwhelming majority in the house and senate, that would play in our favor. you look at the number of seats that the democrats are playing defense on versus the number of seats we're playing defense on, democrats are playing defense in a much greater fashion that we have. a lot of it comes down to not just what's in the bill but the process that has played out. we've been talking about this for 8-10 months now. you saw in the house rules committee, hastings, an important democratic member from florida saint there ain't no rules here, when the vote comes down, we make it up as we go along. normally that's something you dismiss as nonsensical rantings. but how this bill was played out is why the american people are frustrated. it's not just that they don't like the bill, though they don't, they don't like the closed-door meetings and don't want to vote for a member who

has gained a cornhusker kick back, something that sounds like a professional wrestling bill. and they don't want it in place and nancy pelosi is right at the ends of the day, they don't want anybody to have to stand up and say they were a deciding vote on this, because if you do, you'll lose your seat. >> so if it plays out and it's a good thing for people, how do you address the procedural concerns that doug has brought up because some say it doesn't feel right. >> in any election year, they'll be held accountable. and republicans will run on, we want to take away the benefits you've just now gotten. we're going back to the status quo. if that's what they wanna run on, they'll have a tough time going forward. poll after poll shows the individual elements of this bill are incredibly popular. a state poll in his state shows 78% of people want to see

reform. individual elements including the risk pool, providing tax credits, all very, very popular in the 60th and 70th percentile. when the american people feel the reduction in the prescription drug costs, decreases in premium costs, they'll support people who supported reform. and instead of supporting the insurance companies and the status quo. >> all right, hari, and doug, we'll see how it plays out today and in november. thank you, gentlemen, in agreeing to disagree. what do you think at home? our new poll reveals that a majority of americans do not think their opinions are being heard in congress. laura engle has more. not surprising. >> that's right, shannon. americans are most concerned with their own quality of care while all of this is going on more than half of americans polled believe their care will be worse under the reform.

>> hello, pennsylvania! >> hello ohio! >> reporter: as president obama crisscrosses the nation in a final push for health care reform, his pitch seems to be falling mostly on deaf ears, this according to the latest fox news opinion dynamic poll. the president says his plan is the best compromise. >> we've ended up with a proposal that incorporates the best ideas from democrats and republicans. >> reporter: but a majority of americans disagree. 55% are now oppose to the current health care legislation, up from 51% in january, 35% favor the bill. the support splitting along party lines, with 66% of democrats favoring the reforms. while 88% of republicans and 53% of independent oppose them. sdpooid despite a promise it will not cost more or raise taxes, americans remain skeptical. >> it's being sold as a free lunch and nothing is free.

they've pushed the costs farther out. it's fiscally reckless. >> reporter: three quarters believe their taxes will increase. proponents insist it's necessary to create jobs. >> 4 million in the life 69 bill, several hundred thousand almost immediately. >> americans disagree, 64% say it won't boost the economy. >> and congress approval ratings remain near all-time lows and a bright spot for the president, even though his approval rating is down, people say he has the right ideas for the future and we have more poll results on our website, check it out, foxnews.com on the front page. >> very interesting. thank you. and for all the latest health care news, go to the speakers lobby, and our producer

extraordinaire breaks it down. so if i can get it, any of us can get it. he's got fantastic stuff on the site. well, the red river is close to cresting today. but is it as bad as it was last year, or will it be worse? an update is up next.

♪ authorities are blaming a spring blizzard for at least three deaths in the southern plains. all three deaths were the result of car accidents in tough winter conditions. forecasters say areas northeast of oklahoma city could get up to a foot of snow and all that after temperatures were in the 70s two days ago.

it was a year ago today that red river first reached the flood stage during the 2009 flood. this shows weight looked like then and now it will crest today in moorhead, minnesota, about 19 feet above flood stage. peter doocy is there and brings us the latest. >> reporter: this spot i'm standing in on the minnesota side of the red river in the shadow of downtown fargo, north dakota is usually surrounded by lots and lots of green grass, about 600 feet from the banks. and i'm on a tiny little island and areas which normally don't have any water flowing through them have a strong current. you can see. looks the trees bouncing up and down and up and down, and the water is right now 19 feet above flood stage that is not supposed to be there. they're expecting a crest sometime later today and think we're within a fraction of one

inch and hoping it comes sometime later today. once it does crest, the water is not going anywhere for a while and we'll remain above major flood stage for at least a week because the water is so cold and the ground is so saturated. now, throughout town, most of the levees have held up well, but they'll continue to be tested throughout the week, because like i said, this water is not going anywhere anytime soon. and with a could add insult to injury, they're expecting some type of precipitation tomorrow night into tuesday and the problems are far from over for the people here outside of fargo. >> safety to you and the crew and the people of fargo, as well. a couple now believes an underwater photo they took may show natalee holloway's remains. and now authorities say they will search the area where the couple snapped this picture. holloway has been missing since 2005. joran van der sloot told a dutch tv station that he hid her remains in a swamp and told an

undercover reporter that her body had been dumped in the ocean. ♪ health care reform could provide medal coverage to millions of americans who currently don't have it. now the uninsured often end up in the emergency room. those who visit regularly are called frequent flyers. and in sacramento, now a program to break that cycle. casey has the story live >> reporter: the program they say is working, just as you said, for a lot of people who are underinsured or uninsured in this country. a lot of times the only access they have to medical care is if they show up here to an emergency room. experts say that a large number of those patients are homeless and doctors say sometimes they're just in search of a bed or a bite to eat and don't even require medical attention. some show up to the e.r. several times in the same week, not only costing american hospitals millions of dollars each year

but clogging the e.r. for those who really need it. >> currently and especially with the state of the economy, the emergency room is a point of entry for health care, and it's important that the emergency room be available for people who have true emergencies. we want our wait times to be low. we want people to have access when they need it. and so you know, this is a national epidemic. >> so to combat the problem, this emergency room in sacramento has teamed up with a nonprofit clinic called the effort, to identify those frequent flyer patients, as they're called, and assign them case managers to identify the real root of the problem. if they're drug addicts, they get rehab. if they're homeless, they work on securing them housing. >> one of the people that don't have health people or the homeless people, and if we have more programs like this where they're taken off the streets, given a place to live, because

that's a big part of it. if you get an infection and you're out in the street, it grows. you're dirty and it's hard to keep it clean. >> and again, this program appears to be working. the emergency room visits from the frequent flyer patients have been slashed 65%, and inpatient hospital stays nearly 40% so far, this is saving the sacramento hospital $2.4 million a year. pretty significant, shannon. >> very interesting program. casey, thank you for the report. we're less than 15 minutes away to the opening gavel for this historic session of the house of representatives. continuing coverage minute by minute. all the breaking coverage live all the breaking coverage live from the nation's capital. captioned by closed captioning services, inc. at wachovia and wells fargo, we're with you, when a house turns into a home...

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everything that happens and members that go by and folks who have anything to say. we have representative marshall black burn walking by. republican from tennessee. we'll let megan kelly pick it up and takes over the coverage from new york. >> fox news alert. this is a live look at one of our capitol hill cameras where we expect to see the republican house members walking in the house chamber. there they will take part in the historic vote on president obama's health care overhaul. good afternoon, everyone. welcome to a special sunday edition of america live. i am megan kelly. after a year of speeches and debate it comes down to the next couple of hours. a vote on a bill democrats promise to bring needed health insurance to millions of americans . add hundreds of billions and

put lawmakers between you can your doctor. there is still a question of votes. >> we think there will be 216 plus votes when we call the roll. >> they don't have the votes yet. >> they don't have a hard 216 yet. i couldn't tell you which 216 members we will have. >> she's right it in influx. >> according to our tally, estimated house vote stands at 216 for or learning for this bill and 215 against or leaning against this bill. magic number for passage is 216 and looking good for the democrats by our estimates . we go to bret baier bear who joins me from washington. bret, there is a question of the vote back and forth reports is that it is looking good for democrats and yet john boehner coming out and

said not so fast. >> it is not clear they have 216 despite our estimated projection. we are looking at the november vote, how house lawmakers voted back then and not switching their vote unless we hear one way or the other. there are undecided that are on the fence and back and forth over the abortion language in the group of pro life abortion democrats that the prolife democrats that have not come to a clear conclusion that the presidential executive order to try to firm up the language is good enough for them. i think we are still influx with undecided. a couple of process things if we can, megan, one is that the first vote is on the rule. this will set the day. there are three important votes today. the rule, the senate bill and then the vote on reconciliation and in between

there we'll have a lot of debate. each one of these needs 216. democrats can't have 37 of their members vote against it otherwise it would not go forward . then it moves to the president's desk. >> bret, elaborate more. they are still talking about bart stupack and the question of abortion funding. that hasn't changed. right now, look at what we are looking at on the screen. we saw the leaderships entering in the chamber including nancy pelosi. they are trying to work out a deal to get bart stupack on board and there are reports that if president obama issues a executive order he and six or sen of those votes can vote for the bill. they are planning on voting no. is there any question on whether an executive order on abortion could solve the abortion problem. stupack said the senate bill

right now does require abortion funding. they have said no . so president obama can he fix that with an executive order? >> well, democrats will argue that that is what the hyde amendment is. the problem is hyde amendment is for henry hyde, former illinois congressman and prohibition that was for any federal funding used to pay for abortions. the problem is that the bill is set up in a complex way that the prolife democrats don't feel that the senate bill fully covers, prevents the funding for -- for abortions by someone who would get subsidized by the federal government. >> right. there is a question. >> that is your question. can an executive order fix it. some say yes, it is not a problem, this should firm it up. there are still questions on the other side. >> john boehner said this is

not over, is that true? >> even if it passes today, there is still another hurdle in the senate to get through to these fixes past in the senate. i think what the minority leader was talking about. this is not over at the ballot box and a campaign issue for republicans and they are going to be a lot of them who run on health care and repealing much of this if it gets through it is a huge day for demdeps who believe that if you can get over this hurdle, they will have enough time to make the case to the american people. that there are good things that they should like in this pack annual . republicans come out and say this is their campaign issue number one. in fact the vote goes as democrats home . bret bai, r should happen tonight at six? >> the senate vote should be

happening in the 6:00 hour. this thing could get pushed back and points of order and we'll monitor every minute. but it is shaping up to be a big one. >> we'll look forward to those moments today. >> exciting. >> riveting stuff. bret, thank you . again this afternoon. watch for three important votes, first begins in the next couple of hours. first they vote on a rule, a rule that sets the guidelines for the rest of the day. that rule vote will set the guidelines of how they will debate the senate bill and reconciliation bill and set up the protocol that could significant affect how the votes come out. first comes the vote on the rule and then the vote on the health care bill that the senate passed in december and lastly vote on a package of changes . by the way, in case you were bondering about deem and pass and not actually not vote.

that is gone. enough pressure took place and now they abandoned that method and we expect a up or down vote on that bill. >> if you are standing outside of the capitol today, you would see the battle over health care in front of your eyes. number two republican in the house using his space in the capitol to send a message. look at this. look at this. vote no. signs could be seen hanging in two windows that are part of the offices of virginia congressman. he is the house minor whip. interesting. democrats can't find the vote to pass health health legislation this afternoon, the next step will be the lawyers to defend it. take a look at this map. 38 states are pushing back against what could be federal law. these states have passed or intend to file legislation requiring lawsuits against the

government take over of health care. peter johnson junior and joins me now with more. thanks for being here. we see 38 states getting ready to push back if this becomes law. is there a leg to stand on for these states legally. >> they have a right to pass these laws. whether they have a right to violate the supremacy clause of the united states constitution is thatthat said federal law becomes the law of the land is a different question. we'll see robust and long and doing add challenges on man basis in the constitution to the health care reform package if it is passed and signed by the president apart from the laws that have been passed. many attorney generals, south carolina, florida, virginia, idaho, attorney generals across the country said that we will go forward and get standing in federal courts one way or the other to overturn

the individual mandate. the order by the federal government you megan kelly, peter johnson can and must buy a product called health insurance. first time. >> how -- >> i believe first time. it is a strong challenge. the cvo in the past looked at this issue and the legislative experts in congress have said this is unsettled issue with regard to an individual mandate. there is no constitutional precedent and there is a mandate under law and under the constitution for the congress to regulate commerce. commercial activity, but can they regulate commercial inactivity and can they say by your birth right as an american if you fail to buy this health insurance you are

in violation of the law and subject to fines and penalties and $ -- 16,000 new i.r.s. agents that are stalking your activity in that regard. there is a ground swell politically and a lot of americans who are overnight constitutional experts what happened to the powers of the states? what happened to the fifth amendment? and i am just taking from americans. >> peter, let me jump n what the democrats say the feds have long had the power to tax. they tax us, our government taxes us on the hilth from liquor to clothes to income taxes and this is essential another form of tax and there is no question they can make us pay out of the our pockets things we don't necessarily pay for. >> it is a trojan horse taxation. but the critical issue for the first time in american history. i know democrats like to talk

about the issue of state regulation and demanding that motor vehicle operators buy insurance. does the federal government and this is a constitutional question have the right to demand of you that you buy health insurance and if you don't buy it, you will be subject to the fines and penalties and restrictions of the federal government. you are a great lawyer, we all agree that the federal government has the power to tax. but does it have the power to tax in violation of the united states constitution? attorney generallies on their own will not have the capacitiy or standing to go in federal court. i guarantee you, in states that are opposed to the legislation, you pointed out 38 states have already passed legislation saying that there should not be individual mand date and democrat majorities voting against health care reform and the individual mandate in those states there

will be constitutional challenges and they will go on for 10 years and it will go to the united states supreme court. a stay of execution and health care reform will be stayed pending these court challenges the is another question. >> okay. >> there will be a doged determined challenge. >> already in the making. peter johnson junior. just so you know what we are seeing on the screen. republican leadership and others filing in now for the first, getting ready for the first vote on the so-called rule. there will be procedure back and forth that goes on and this is it. they will have to vot up and down on the procedures in the day. this will set the stage for two big, big votes that we are waiting for in the house of representatives and so keep it right here. we'll have every moment as it happens. there are still undecide even

the house minority leader john boehner said it is not over until the votes are counted. we are watching it for you . here's an update for you on other news. >> a major airline strike grounds hundreds of flights and disrupts travel for thousands. we'll have an update. >> nail biter shaping up on capitol hill today, we are hours away from a historic vote coming up, we find out what republicans are planning if the democrats are pushing through the bill. plus, how will it affect the midterm elections this november? >> in a month's time, or few week's time or six week's time, we could actually resolve something . if we can't, we have to go ahead and make decisions and then that's what elections are for. when you hear a click, you know it's closed and secure.

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>> day two of a strike on british airways causing big disruption for travelers. airways said leased crews from rival carriers. union and management are at odds over a salary freeze and working conditions. more strikes will come if the issues are not resolved. fox news alert word coming in that a former no vote on the health care legislation has now said he will say yes. congressman bryan beared from washington state. he is retiring. he voted no the last time and now he said he will vote yes. that changes the expected tally as we counted here at fox in the democrat's favor. we'll try to get more on his reasons. he issued a lengthy statement.

he believes it is the best option at least for now. at any event representatives beared now a yes vote for the democrats. let's say the bill passes today. what do the republicans do tomorrow to move their message forward? gop congressman bill cassidy from louisiana is on the hill and joins me now. thank you so much for being here. say the democrats pass it today. what is your next move as part of the gop party? >> gop is a fortunate position. we have linkage with the american people. 38 states filing suit against this and the fact people are torming the capitol saying kill the bill and two-thirds american people are against it we continue to stand up for limited government and freedoms of individuals to make their own choices and the fact that washington should not control our lives. >> how do you turn it around

before november. it is clearly the majority of the american public on your side now. polls have showed that people are against the bill as it is now styled. however once it is passed, it is a different story. democrats said they will like the things coming their way. having 20 or 25 year old children stay on their policy and maul businesses getting tax breaks it will be difficult. >> four years of taxes will take place before the government programs are instituted. 10 years was taxings to pay for six years of program, that means four years of taxes by the way estimated 5.5 million jobs are estimated to be killed and will able to alert the american people. things in the margin which are republican ideas are marginal. taxes are job killers and they

are directly involved with this. the american people understand that. >> congressman, have you ever seen anything like this? the polls are so consist notly one way and yet the comes out against the will? >> no, i have not. i am a freshman and it astounds me that people vote against the will of the people. we were sent as representatives and not dictators. they are looking at people that are retiring to be yes votes. only if you don't have to face the wrath of the people. the fact that beared can flip his vote and retire is instrumental. the folks that have to return to face their voters will be in trouble. >> democrats say it is a republic and i am not required to vote the will of my constitients but required to do what is best and that's what i am doing and i think the public has been misled. that's what democrats said

that in believing what is a good bill is a bad bill. do you believe these representatives have an obligation of the people. >> we debated it for 15 months. american know terms of deem and reconciliation. american people know 10 years was taxes to pay for six years of programs is not a good deal. the fact is, american people know this debate and they are not fooled by anybody. you know what deem and reconciliation you know the issue. democrats pursue in the arrogance that washington knows best and the american people don't. it is bad policy. >> and congressman cassidy. you may have got know an eye opener, the rest of the nation has an eye opener when it comes to the inner machination of congress. thank you. >> thank you, meg an. >> israeli prime minister told the administration something

that the president did not want to hear. up next. the reason why u.s. relations to israel could be headed to a crises month. >> and majority of americans coming around to the cause? a new look at polling and the race for a midterm and this could get fierce. take a look at marshall black burn on the house floor. >> my colleagues cheer that the bill is paid for. they ignore it is our children that will pay for their greed. >> my colleagues shame us for scaring the american people for the bill. we know the consequences of the bill will be frightening and horrible. free dom dies a little bit today!

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>> fox news alert. nancy pelosi outside of the chamber with a gavil. >> it is important legislation. this has been a complete team effort not only partnership with our leadership and every member of our caucus, we look forward to making this historic day, known to the american people about what we are doing this one for the american people, for their health, and their opportunity and for their jobs and for the education of their children. thank you. >> now you can see nancy pelosi in a good mood. she clearly believes she has the votes. that's what most of the democrats are saying today. we'll not know for sure but they are ready to get down to business at this moment. we are watching it live for you on america live. there is meantime this.

prime minister of israel refusing to budge on plan to build new settlements in eastern jerusalem. secretary of state clinton demanded a halt to the housing project. benjamin netanyahu will be scheduled to meet with president obama. there is deprowing discord . mike, how significant is this? >> it is significant, because prime minister netanyahu needs to smooth over bad blood that exists between the obama administration and the government. the u.s. is still the best friend that israel had despite all of the tension between them. netanyahu is in a position to go to the white house contrite because of the slap that israel delivered up side urvingle sam. contrite is not netanyahu's strong suit and if he builds too much that will upset the

hawks in his government. that's why netanyahu stood nupt cabinet saying that israel will stand firm on the decision to build 1600 housing units in eastern jerusalem. but you have seen him make concession. secretary of state clinton described themus useful and constructive. >> what are the concessions, mike? >> easing travel restriction in the gaza strip to allow construction supplies in to rebuild homes that were destroyed or damaged and talking about a prisoner release. fatah prisoners only and not hamas. that is a shot in the arm palestinian abbas for the fatah party. but the big concession is that netanyahu will allow three party talks and discussion of the core issues. by core issues, we'll talk about status of palestinian refugees and what to do with

the holy sites that. gives a chance for the talk to be constructive and not just a stepping stone. >> big news out of the middle east. >> there is breaking new in minnesota. the red river is threatening a number of communities. we'll have a live report on effort to stop the flooding just ahead . house members are preparing for the first crucial vote in the health care overhaul process . opponents of the measure are prepairing for the next big battle in the fight. that's up next. [ female announcer ] sometimes you need tomorrow to finish what you started today. for the aches and sleeplessness in between, there's new motrin pm. no other medicine, not even advil pm, is more effective for pain and sleeplessness. new motrin pm.

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>> fox news alert. we are just getting news that there are massive protest or at least vocal protest taking place in capitol hill. they were booing the speaker, chad, what have you learned >> i am in the base of the house steps. house speaker nancy pelosi took the giant gavele that john's father used and walked arm and arm lewis when he was beaten by the atlanta. they were heckled as they walked in the house chamber. there are thousands of

protestors and walked and reminded me of a civil rights. kill the bill. you can hear the din behind me. it was tough. you had a lot of shoving and pushing. shoving reporters and trying to keep protestors back. it a dramatic scene as the house speaker leadership and john lewis walked from the cannon caucus room and across independence avenue and up to the capitol. >> these are folks who are opposed to the bill. you gave me a rough estimate of the numbers whampt do you think. a couple thousand. >> it depend oz where you are. i am on the house side, there is close to a thousand on this side. go around to the west front and the mall said it is another couple thousand. they are defiant. ? this is an act of defiance amid the sea of protest and

across the street and up to the capitol to start the process of votes to pass the bill. >> we saw her doing a brief press and holding that gavele. she had to leave and go outside to get into the capitol where first of several votes will get started. how did she react to these protestors who were shouting kill the bill. she was smiling and appeared confident and calm and walking with john lewis and sydney porter the majority leader and jim clyburn who is the house democratic whip and highest africa-american to serve in the leadership was walking hand in hand with barbra lee and everyone was. what was unique considering with the slurs fired in africa-american lawmakers this was a ploy by the democrats to show defiance, and sort of make this into a civil right's march of their own and walk

across the bridge and walk over to the capitol to try to pass the bill later on today. >> they have another option for getting over there. >> you could go through the tunnels. there is it a tunnel that runs between the cannon building over to the capitol and a lot of times speaker and leaders and the u.s. capitol police takes them in vans. house majority leader came outoutside of the capitol and ushered into a van to go someplace. there was a lot of protestors heckling him and it was a calculated effort by the leadership to say we have the votes and we'll go through and sort of underscore what we think what we are doing is right. >> on the bottom right there, that's where we are waiting nancy pelosi again inside of the capitol where we expect her to arrive. >> she's in the capitol now . they have already started. she gaveled in the session and

these are bed sheet votes. this is where they have a number of votes on nonrelated matters to get everyone to the floor and where they are aware and they can go up to talk to them and whips and see if any problems emerging. >> are you seeing protestors and seeing any sort of proponents of the bill come out or is it just the opponents that rallied. >> i have been up here two days straight and i haven't seen a single prohealth care bill protestors. everybody up here has been against the bill. >> okay, we'll be watching it. it is all starting right now. chad program has been a busy man trying to keep track of all of great job and let us know the latest. >> my pleasure. and some of the opponents to the bill may be booing democrats outside of the capt cament yesterday they were inside of the capitol cheering

the republican leaders, look at (cheering) that's not something you see every day. larry sabio from the university of the west virginia vinge. thank you for being hoar. what an interesting. hearing about the booing of nancy pelosi and cheering of the republican leadership and yet this is just a sample of american sentiment. how do you see this thing, larry playing out in the polls in november 2010 assuming democrats have the votes? >> i would put it that way. both parties are going to have happy months. democrats will have a happy march and signing ceremony and pleased about getting health health passed. republicans will have a big november and the crowd showing up, yes, it is always questionable to read too much into a small group of people. i will say this.

every survey that i have seen shows that the intensity of opinion in the country is with opponents of health care reform, and indeed with opponents of democrats this particular year. why does intensity matter in this election you will have a turn out of no greater than 40 percent of the voters as opposed to 60 or 65 percent. you have a lower turn out. who turns out. the people who care the most and intense feelings and the intense feelings this year is with the republicans on issues like health care. >> but november is several months away and there is a question of whether the voters sentiment that is running strong to most polls, it will last or whether will wane. >> there is no way to tell for sure. normal low a big event that

jenerates this much emotion. the people who are inclined to vote a. . if they don't remember, that is the point of hundreds of millions of television advertising that you will see in the general election campaign. >> they will remind. >> they will be reminding voters of how their congressman voted in march. >> assuming the democrats passed. they believe they have the votes, not over until they do. but assuming they get it passed. do you expect a bump in the polls for president obama or for the bill and those who are supporting it? >> it is really interesting. history tells us when a president wins a big victory even on an unpopular subject he generally goes up but it is it a temporary bump. on health care, this is just, it is the end of the first phase of the debate. this goes over to the senate and republican senators made

it plain they will have dozens if not hundreds of amendments, some of which will be debated at length . so the same issues that we have seen in the last year will be playing out in the senate and it may play out in the courts and it will syruply play out on the campaign trial all the way in november. >> you see the same type of momentum for president obama. will the wind be with him or against him in getting other items pass the. americans think that government is too big. one could argue that that would not let him get other agenda am whys. but the wind will be in his back and people look at him as a winner, how do you see that shaping up? >> it is possible things like the bank bill. go after wall street and the banks, that the president can get a substantial win there. other items like immigration

and cap and trade, i don't see them happening and here's why! >> the democratic say a district like mccain and 41 democrats in districts carried by mccain. there is no way they'll give tough votes on the president. theirs is on the line in november . his doesn't. i have given the president all of the tough votes he will get this term. >> last question how do you predict the house and senate going in 2010 and the presidency in 20 thereto 12? >> in this november i think it is inevitable republicans will score big gains in the house and senate and don't forgive the governorships which may be the most important thing up because of redistricting in 2011. republicans will gain i think in each category.

it only reaches to the next election. >> we have enough to deal with before we get to 2012. thank you so much. >> thanks a lot. >> we are waiting new video of what happened with nancy pelosi. you heard chad program telling us what he saw and trying to get pictures in and a leading prolife democrat in the house said a deal with the white house could be close when it come to abortion language in the health care bill. democrat florida congresswoman said that would be a big problem for a bunch of her supporters. she is our guest just ahead. >> between the members that publicly committed and the members that we have talked to and questions that have answered we'll have the 216 votes when we vote. water vegetables need. so, to turn those vegetables into campbell's condensed soup, we don't boil it down,

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>> fox news alert.

new details coming in on the push to win the vote from bart stupack. he is a hold out when it come to abortion funding. that is the bill that the democrats and the house are voting on. today, they are trying to win his vote and votes was others that are holding firm along with him. there are reports earlier today not confirmed by fox that bart stupack was a yes. we have the latest from major garrett who is live in the white house now. what do we know? >> bart stupack's spokeswoman e-mailed and said there is no deal on executive order dealing with the question of abortion and congressman is stepack is a no vote right now. conversations are continuing and that extra right now qualifier signals to me that conversations with the white house are not only ongoing but yield a deal acceptable to congressman stupack and others

in his ranks of prolife democrats who have been reluctant to vote for the legislation and do want to vote for it as long as they receive assurance from the white house on the question of direct abortion funding. the white house does not believe that the executive order is necessary believes that the language in the senate bill prevents federal funding of abortion. but they get word from house democrat leaders if executive order is necessary to make the 216 for passage or provide sufficient margin above 216 to give all house democrats the ability to say i am not the deciding vote, the white house will go forward with an executive order. it is not a done deal. bart stupack is still a no vote. >> major, the fact that they are talking about an executive order to apiece bart stupack and his contingent of

democrats. where does that tell you where the vote stands separate and apart? >> the vote is close. the white house remains confident as do house democrat leaderships. i can't discern if it is for the magic number of 216 or pad that number a bit. my gut is to tell me that it is popad the number. because the negotiations reached the intense level and back and forth and what is and isn't. it tells me the situation is up in the air and could remain so until the final hours leading up to the vote. clearly it is up in the air. >> and final minutes. this could be a matter of crore gravy. stupack may have sent signals that the executive order is acceptable to me but he may need to see it release pronounced before the vote occurs.

i just don't know yet. >> major, i want to get this in, i doned understand how president obama can solve his problem. the senate bill right now requires women who bias subsidized insurance plans that cover abortion to send in a separate check to cover the abortion. how does an executive order correct that in >> we don't know what it says. i can't worry that pacificly the idea as expressed to me that an executive order would place the president and his signature consistently with the hyde amendment. if that is enough it will be. does that solve the legal question. i have no idea. >> clarification. with democrats coming on in the next hour and i will try to and them about major garrett is working hard in the white house. thanks so much. >> folks, we are watching the red river in minnesota and north dakota.

temporary levees and sand bags are in place and there is a real question as to whether they will hold as flood waters crest this afternoon. we are live in minnesota. >> and the tape of what happened when the house speaker ran the gauntlet of protestors outside this afternoon. stay tuned. like new wood-grilled lobster and parmesan scampi... our signature lobster lover's dream... and eleven more choices. right now at red lobster.

>> fox news alert. drama in the u.s. capitol as we close in on the historic vote on president obama's health care overhaul. >> debate is about to begin on the first of three critical vote. first to the rule and next to senate bill and next reconciliation bill. many of us find ourselves. protestors outside of the capitol fired up. new video of between them and nancy pelosi.

we are getting an alert inside of the capitol dome building bart stupack and congressman lapensky are talking in the house corner. they are two prolife democrats that are holding out on this. major garrett reported that stupack's office said he is a no for now. there is no deal yet . those are the qualifiers put on the e-mail that woo received from his people. stupack and his people are talking in the corner of the house chamber as we wait to see how the deal comes down. two top democrats will join me with where they stand on the votes and how they expect it to go moments away. in the meantime midwest. men min and north dakota folks are watching the red river. it is expected to crest today. today they believe it is the day, 19 feet. it will crest above flood stage they believe.

right now the situation is bad but not serious as previous years. sand bags are pilled up for miles and miles. peter, what is the situation on the ground now? >> megan. this area is in the middle of the longest and wettest wet season they have h. the red river here is 19 feet above the flood stage that. is two stories of water that is just not supposed to be there. the banks are a few hundred yards. but the flad waters are up to the sand bags and i am standing on one of those tempary levee made all of dirt and clay. they are going to be here a few days and so the levees will be tested throughout the week. >> peter, thank you. and president obama and congressional democrat leaders say they have the votes, that's what they believe . opponents are rolling out over

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