wikileaks on ice. you'll be dazzled by the athleticism, the artistry and shocking revelations from correspondents. call now. [ laughter ] >> bret: thanks for inviting us into your home tonight. that is it for "special report." fair, balanced, and unafraid. sorry, mr. bill. >> bill: "the o'reilly factor" is on. tonight: >> you can't sure up the social security trust fund with borrowed money if you want it to work. >> bill: howard dean worried about the deficit? are you kidding me? now a fiscal responsibility warrior? karl rove will explain what's going on. >> i'm confident that this will be upheld by the court. so this is one opinion that we strongly disagree with.

>> bill: president obama may lose obama care in the courts the federal judge says forcing americans to buy health insurance sun constitutional. crowley and colmes on that. >> i held it together as long as i could and i'm done now. i'm hungry. >> bill: and what is kate gosselin doing in the alaskan wilderness with sarah palin? this is beyond bizarre. >> come on, it wasn't that bad. >> bill: caution. you are about to enter the no spin zone. the factor begins right now. ♪ >> bill: hi, i'm bill o'reilly. thanks for watching us tonight. the bell is tolling for the far left. that is the subject of this evening's talking points memo. it is now just about certain that the obama tax compromise will be passed in congress. yesterday just 15 senators opposed bringing the compromise up for a vote.

five of those are republicans. coburn, sessions, demint and senator voinovich. the other 10 are liberal democrats the usual suspects like bernie sanders and patrick leahy of vermont. the opposition comes of course from the far left. and with yet another crushing defeat, the question is, can george soros, aryana huffington, the "new york times" and nbc even survive much longer as credible enterprises? it's clear the country has turned against the radical left even obama figured that out. howard dean's current take on the tax compromise illustrates that. >> this is inside washington deal. washington politicians like it but they are not really telling the whole story to the american people. in order to get out of this deficit, which is really bad and accumulating over 10 years are, we're going to have to limit the growth of social security. limit the growth of medicare. cut defense and raise taxes on people who make a million dollars a year. you have got to do all of those.

>> bill: dean is now speaking the truth. wasn't it dean in his crazy far left crew that encouraged the huge spending in the first place? i believe so. now the former governor of vermont is moaning about it. is there anyone on earth who thinks howard dean has suddenly changed into a responsible fiscal policy person? so not only is president obama now constrained in his social justice spending, but the entire far left movement in america has been marginalized by the tax deal. americans see what's happening in europe. they see countries like greece and ireland collapsing under the entitlement spending. they see what's happened in california where there is a state of emergency because sacramento cannot pay the lavish union benefits and pensions that democratic politicians have championed for years. americans see all that. and they know that far left governance does not work. that is not good news for barack obama. now his own political survival depends on throwing away the social justice income redistribution playbook and actually looking out for all the

folks. county president do that? you make the call. and that's the memo. now for the top story tonight. if the far left is defeated, what does that mean for the democratic party going forward? joining us from washington fox news analyst karl rove. so, mr. rove, what say you? >> well, i debate howard dean on college campuses routinely. you have just seen what in that clip what i get to see in college campuses which is when he is lucid, he suddenly turns into something other than what he is. look, this is a guy who wanted a more expensive version of health care reform. one trillion $55 billion for first 10 year price tag was too little for him. he wanted robust public option which the taxpayer would pick up even more cost. for him to sit here and say we can't have this tax package because it's too expensive, what he is saying basically is we leave too much money in people's pockets and we need to take more of it from him. remember, of this bill that's before the congress right now,

$480 billion of the so-called cost is leaving in people's pockets the money that they already have under the current tax rates if we were to raise tax rates, it would take $408 billion out of the pockets of americans over the next 10 years that would be if we kept the current rates in hand. he doesn't like that. he wants that money. this has amt relief. keeping 27 million american households from paying higher taxes. that's $137 billion. he wants them to pay higher taxes. $68 billion is by having a compromise on the death tax. i think the death tax ought to be killed all together. this would keep $68 billion in the pockets of families who have lost a loved one. he wants that money. that's $614 billion in keeping taxes at their existing rates or lowering them. >> bill: tell the folks amt stands for? >> alternative minimum tax. this was a tax passed in 1969 to get people at that point it was like a dozen people in america

who were extremely wealthy, made a lot of money but used shelters and deductions. >> bill: so they have to pay a minimum amount if they make over a certain amount. okay. so let's take a look at howard dean because i'm using him as the straw man of the whole radical left. i think he knows he has lost. i think he knows it's all over for him and his big spending social justice crew. so now he is trying to reinvent himself as a responsible fiscal guy who just wants everybody to pay their fair share. am i wrong? >> well, i end up in the same place that you are but i have got a slightly different view. i think he is afraid that they have lost. what he is trying to do is fight a rear guard action. they still have the white house. though they are still concerned how reliable barack obama is. >> bill: not reliable anymore. >> still have the senate by a much slimmer margin with a lot of democrats nervous in the senate by 2012 when they have to face a electorate in a red state

and they lost the house. what is he trying to do is stiffen the spines of democrats to dig in and fight as hard as they can for what -- for a left wing agenda by use of the language of the right in order to give themselves protection. >> bill: i'm not going to disagree with that is he a cameleon in the sense that is he trying to disguise what he really wants. >> absolutely. >> bill: i do disagree with the fact. >> he wants all that money. >> bill: he wants the money. certainly, there is no doubt about that. they do. but they are going to say they want it now, mr. rove, not to impose income redistribution, which is really what they want. >> right. >> bill: but to fiscally pay down the huge debt that they ran up. that's the game. that's what they are saying now. that's what barack obama is going to say, too. is he not? >> exactly. now, look, here is one example of that. payroll tax holiday. this has a one year 2% payroll tax holiday. so 2% of your payroll that now goes into social security, now will stay in your pocket. this was a compromise because what the administration wanted

about $114 billion of this is a tax cut and the rest of it is a disguised welfare payment. what the democrats wanted, what howard dean wanted and what the president wanted was to continue a thing called making work pay. which is sort or wellian. what did it says if you are working and owe no income tax. the government will give you a welfare check each and every year. that's what in the name of income redistribution they wanted. they don't like this provision. because while it is in essence letting people keep some of their own money, what they wanted wanted was a fewer straight welfare that took from some, the middle class and upper class and gave to the poor and did so gisd through the income tax system. >> bill: if my hypothesis is true that the far left is finished and i do believe they are for the time being, for the next year or so or next two years. i think barack obama understands that. they are done. where does the democratic party go? what do they rally around now?

they lost the nancy pelosi, harry reid, barack obama wing of social justice reinventing the country, it's over. the folks voted them out. the polls show they don't want it. you can see the european situation, you can see california as i pointed out. where did the democratic party go? >> whether they have lost or whether they are scared of losing, i think end up doing the same thing. which is they use the power they have left to either do things through the administrative process, the president does in by executive order and hopes not to be overridden by congress. or they fight for it beneath the surface by in particular the budget. >> bill: you don't think the democratic party is going to change at all? >> they are in the house of representatives. they already demonstrated that to us by reelecting nancy pelosi as speaker. in the senate the only pliability that the republicans have is that it's 53-47. they continue to focus attention

of red state democrats from like montana north dakota and nebraska and florida to virginia and louisiana on the fact that those senators, democrat senators are going to have to go home and face the voters in states that don't like the barack obama agenda. and soundly rejected what the democrats did over the last two years. so, you know, the conservatives can be on the offense, but we ought to be clear that the democrats still have the white house and they still have the senate and the question is, is this going to be a battle of will? can the conservatives keep on the offense and keep pressing, pressing, pressing so that they win not complete victories but partial victories and keep winning them consistently. >> bill: thank you very much. obama care may be in trouble. a federal judge rules major part of it unconstitutional. colmes and crowley will analyze. then amazing story, muslim teacher, there she is, is told she cannot go to mecca. she gets the federal government to sue the school district on her behalf.

incredible. up ahead.

>> bill: barack and hard place segment tonight henry hudson has ruled that a major part of obama care is unconstitutional as we reported last night. the judge believes the feds cannot force you to buy health insurance. two other judges have ruled otherwise, so the case is likely to go to the supreme court. >> i'm confident this will be upheld by the courts.

this is one opinion that we strongly disagree with, but we already have the majority of other lower court -- >> bill: okay. here now to react fox news analyst alan colmes and monica crowley. i can imagine that the supreme court when it hears it would uphold the fed's right to force people to buy it. 5-4 decision. in my opinion, you can't do that. >> that's my prediction as well 5-4. but that assumes that elena kagan recuse herself from hearing this case. she was solicitor general for a couple of years under president obama. she did argue on behalf of obama care or at least participated. >> bill: can they force her to recuse. >> it's unclear. if she does recuse herself. >> bill: it's over it? >> could be a 4-4 decision. in that case they have to let the lower court decision stand. >> bill: no, kagan would vote for it kennedy is the swing vote against it? >> correct. but if we recuses herself then you get a 4-4 decision.

>> bill: it would be 5-3 decision. i'm going to kennedy saying no way. >> okay. >> bill: okay. i agree. >> i agree with you. >> kennedy would be a swing vote. we don't know how he would vote on it. >> bill: you can't debate this. it would have to be heard. let's assume that the obama care thing is in trouble. all right? it's in trouble. and there is all kinds of injunctions that you can't do this, you can't do that until they finally hear it which would be a year away. all of this weakens president obama,. >> let's not forget two courts one in virginia and one in michigan already ruled the other way and said it's okay. >> bill: it's all ideological. henry hudson a republican. voted against it and liberal judges for it same old boring. >> cuccinelli right wing. >> is he a conservative guy. the 20 states protesting. another federal judge is going to rule down there in pensacola later this week. all i'm trying to get across to

you is this obama care deal, i don't think this has a future in america. >> wait a minute. we already have a number of things in place like nonpunishing preexisting conditions. getting on parents plan until 26. there are good things that will come out of this. >> bill: unless congress votes it out. >> that would be a mistake. people like what they have so far. >> bill: i don't know about that most people are against obama care. >> not as it stands right now. >> we have to see it played out overtime. the supreme court probably will hear it before the next presidential election. but from a political standpoint, bill, it's never good for a president to have his signature centerpiece legislation challenged on constitutional grounds. that's why in the past every major piece of social legislation from social security to medicare and so on spent years percolating through the political process and the society at large so that by the time the congress voted on it it was thoroughly vetted and it had bipartisan and public support. obama care has never had those

things. >> you are still going to have a president take credit for some of the things already in place. not punishing kids for preexisting condition. >> bill: overall americans don't like obama care. >> many of it like it from the left. many wanted a public option. >> bill: i don't care where they are -- >> they wanted a more progressive plan. >> bill: did you not see the first segment? >> i did see it. i don't agree with it. >> bill: you and your crew are done. >> no. we are not done. i know it would make you feel good but we're not done. >> it's not true. >> bill: america has turned against you. >> everything is cyclical. when they see the party. >> bill: when i was at the white house party, obama said to me i hate that colmes guy. >> i didn't go. needed a food taster. >> bill: you admitted i am right. you guys are done. >> invited me to go to the party apparently got lost in the email. >> bill: i wouldn't be seen with new public anyway. i can't believe you don't understand after the november vote and after this humiliating compromise that you.

>> you have got to remember what general bush said to think this is some kind of mandate for republicans is wrong. to get overconfident -- >> bill: i'm not interested in republicans and democrats. that's not what i'm talking about. i'm talking about the loons. the far outsocial justice people. >> what you call a loon i would not call a loon. >> bill: of course not. you are one of the loons. >> you think everything is the far left. everything is the far left to you. >> bill: she is not far left. i'm north far left. >> if it's not left far left. often do you say far right? do you ever say far right? no i say far right quite often on this program. do you agree with me that the far left is through? >> oh, please. >> bill: let her make a point. >> let me make a rational point about all of this. the far left is done. here is why. >> bill: temporarily. you might make a come back. >> one of the ironies of electing one of the most radical progressive into the white house

is for radical progressivism. when you look at poll numbers of americans, only 20% identify themselves as liberals. 41% and that number is growing, bill, identify themselves as conservatives with a small c that includes republicans, conservatives, independents and even deserve democrats. what's happened over the past two years is that this radically progressive government in the congress and in the white house, this 20%, this small fraction of america hijacked the rest of the country with an agenda that 80% of the country rejected this president has done nothing but to outreach to the other side. he has been conciliatory. he backed off the public option. for you to keep calling him a radical leftist. >> bill: i didn't call him that. >> i did. >> he has proven exactly the opposite. >> bill: that's true the radical leftist don't like him anymore. >> that is crazy. >> the evidence of that is now that is he trying to move -- >> tell her she is nuts. but i love you.

>> bill: which companies have paid back the tax money the feds you and i gave them through tarp? john stossel has a list and he has checked it twice. and then, is it legal on a muslim teacher allying with attorney general holder to sue her school district because they wouldn't let her go to mecca? wow.

>> bill: stossel matter segment tonight, it is estimated the federal government has committed 400 billion with a b dollars to assist private companies damaged by the recession. that is called tarp money acronym for troubled asset relief program. stands now about 50% of the money has been paid back to the taxpayers but some companies are lagging in that regard. here now with who was naughty and who was nice regarding tarp. fox business anchor john stossel. okay. so we gave you this assignment.

let's get to the good news first because the bad news is always more fun. really rip these companies that didn't pay the money back. run down the list of the five largest that have paid the money back. >> five largest are citigroup, bank of america, jp morgan chase. wells far go and goldman sachs. >> bill: all of those companies, and they received a lot of dough, city corps keep that up there. 45 billion. bank of america 25 billion. jp morgan 25 billion. wells fargo 25 billion. and goldman sachs 10 billion. they have paid every cent of it back? >> plus interest. >> >> bill: plus interest. so we are square with them? >>. no because the fed bought their toxic assets and fanny and freddie bought a lot of these toxic assets. a trillion dollars worth at the fed. what are they really worth? mortgage backed securities? $20? $10? we don't know. >> bill: the federal agencies bought some of their garbage? >> right. we're not even on this deal.

>> bill: all right. good point, stossel, that's why we have you on the program we gave them the money outright. >> forced some of them. >> bill: they paid it back. also the taxpayer bought some of their garbage investments. >> hundreds. >> bill: here are the companies that didn't have largest that haven't paid it back. a.i.g., what do they owe? >> 69 billion. >> bill: oh, that's a lot. g.m.? >> 27 billion. plus they don't have to pay taxes on their first 135 billion in profits. >> bill: chrysler? >> 14 billion. >> bill: sun trust? >> and regions financial 4 billion. >> bill: 4 billion each for those smaller situations. so the big one is a.i.g. owes the taxpayer 70 billions. what do we do? let's go to their house? do you know where the guy lives in the ceo? >> we want these companies to do well so maybe they can pay some of it back. but, tarp, i think it stands for terrible and repulsive program.

it just shouldn't have happened in the first place. >> bill: i know a lot of people feel that way but after talking to both bush and obama, you know, off the record. they both said, look, if we hadn't done, this it would have been panic. the unemployment rate instead of being 10 would have been 18. and i have got to believe those guys. you don't get two diametrically opposed guys bush and obama. they both said the same thing. you had to do it or the unemployment rate would have been 18. i'm sure they believed that at the time but who knows? maybe we would have cleaned out the system. >> bill: their guys are saying it. >> they did it. they panicked. now they have to defend this policy. >> bill: it's like the iraq war, okay? when the far left said bush lied. that is the biggest lie in the world. bush got intelligence information. he acted on the information. and we the war. in hindsight we shouldn't have done it we could have done it another way. bush is being told in the last months of his administration if you don't do this, there is

going to be mass panic in the world. people are going to pull out all their bonds and start selling u.s. securities. you have got to do something, and he did. and now in the end, it looks like the taxpayer will get the money, most the money paid back. >> well, you have got fanny and freddie holding with the government guarantee that is now unlimited. they raised it from 400 billion to an unlimited amount. we don't know how much we have lost. >> i don't like that system either. but i'm talking about private companies shouldn't go in and do it -- the government shouldn't do it. if they fail they fail. >> right. let them fail. >> bill: in this extraordinary case i think i would have done the same thing. it isn't a maybe. if the guys tell you and you are the president this is gonna happen, you have got to act. >> sure, i will panic and spend billions of somebody else's money. we don't know how much better off we might have been if they hadn't done it. >> bill: i don't know if can you take the chance. >> if they all pay it all back, we still lose because we don't know what that money might have

been used for without it sure they saved chrysler but maybe some other company would have borrowed money and invented a better car or cured cancer. >> bill: there is stossel, everybody. you have got some special coming up. it's called politicians, top ten promises of 2010, correct? that is on thursday -- friday. 9:00 p.m. on the fox business network. knocked out hannity on friday, huh? >> yeah. >> bill: factor moves along. stunning lawsuit by attorney general eric holder. he says muslim teacher was denied civil rights because she wasn't granted permission to travel to mecca during the school year. and the aclu warning schools in tennessee not to say merry christmas. is it details and we hope you stay tuned to those reports.

>> bill: in the is it legal segment tonight, 29-year-old teacher who taught matt in berkeley illinois suing a school

district because they denied her unpaid leave to travel to mecca, saudi arabia. guess who is aiding her in her case can you say attorney general eric holder. she asked for three weeks leave to travel to mecca. the school district said no. that was too much time away from her students. here now attorneys and fox news analyst kimberly guilfoyle and lis wiehl. why is holder and the justice department involved in the first place. this is the first time the justice department is involved in a case like this. >> bill: ever? >> ever. because the civil rights department set up a separate division to go through these sort of cases to see whether or not the department should get involved. title 7 no discrimination. >> bill: first time under the new civil rights division. >> one has to wonder if it isn't something to do with the black panther remember that they never prosecuted the black panther. >> bill: i used to teach high school as you ladies know. can i imagine walking into the principal and saying you know what? i want to go to the vatican to rome for three weeks during the

school year. you don't have to pay me and i will see new three weeks. out of here o'reilly. out of here. now, wait. would attorney general holder safe you know, bill, i'm going to sue the school on your behalf because they won't let you go to rome for three weeks. >> sorry. >> i don't think so. one difference here. >> bill: the one difference is? >> the hajj. every mechanism -- muslim has to go through once in their life. >> bill: if you can. >> a good muslim. >> bill: most muslims never go. they can't. if you can, all right. now this woman couldn't because she had to teach school. >> right. she said she was discriminated against. she filed a complaint who referred this to the department of justice under their pilot project of being aggressive and going after any cases that they feel feel has been a violation of constitutional rights. this has nothing to do with her

practicing her religion. she can make a reasonable request that the school is free to accept or deny. >> bill: here is what she could have done you always sympathize with these people. put the camera on wiehl for a minute. here is the face of sympathy. i want her to go to mecca and have a good time and take the hajj. this is what ms. khan does. she says to the school i'm not going to teach the first semester at all, okay? because i'm going to fulfill my legion just obligations as i see it i hope you hire me when i come back. if you don't, i will get another job. >> here is the problem with her doing that is i read the policy between the teacher's union and the schools and it says that there are only certain ways that you can get this leave of absence. and religious accommodation is not part of that. and that's what the department. >> bill: she doesn't have to say i'm going to the hajj. >> what is she going to say?

>> bill: for personal reasons, i need some time off. >> no. >> bill: no? >> no. >> bill: you are indentured servant once you become a teacher? you have to do that? >> leave of absence has to be granted on basic things -- specific things. religion is not one of them. >> the department of justice wants them to god phi their policy to include a specific proposal allowing for them to leave for religious reasons. >> bill: then can i go to rome. >> they want reinstatement and compensatory damage and change. the policy of the school. should be denied. >> bill: but if it isn't denied because holder is actually going through it then can i go to rome under that. >> right. then the rock is a farrians can go to jamaica to smoke pot all day long. >> many people will have an excuse. >> bill: you are telling me what holder and the justice department want if they win the suit then can i go to rome. >> why can't you say you have a religious reason to do a

pilgrimage. >> the policy of the school doesn't allow it right now. holder is saying -- >> bill: if holder wins can i go to rome if i'm a teacher or if you are roster farrian or buddhist you can go over to thailand and the kids are going where is my teacher? everybody is gone. >> this is a form of activism. it's inappropriate. this case should be denied and it shouldn't have been brought to begin with. >> bill: we are going to follow. >> this student had only been there nine months. >> bill: ms. khan is out of the classroom right now. she is banking on a big judgment. >> big time. >> bill: hold the ladies over because the aclu -- don't you love them? >> yeah. >> bill: they're warning schools in tennessee not to say merry christmas. then charles krauthammer on which republican he likes to run against president obama in 2012.

bill will thanks for staying with us. i'm bill o'reilly. we continue now with is it

legal. in tennessee the aclu has sent a letter to 137 school superintendents warning them not to emphasize christmas this year. quote. we believe that holiday celebrations that focus primarily on one religious holiday can result in indoctrination, as well as a sense within the students who do not share that religion of being outsiders to the school, unquote. as usual, the aclu does not acknowledge christmas as a federal holiday mandated by congress, signed into law by u.s. grant. rejoining us now lis wiehl and kimberly guilfoyle. first of all we won the christmas battle over the last five years or so. there haven't been too many of these cases around the country this year. a few, but not many. was there a threat in the aclu letter to the superintendents if you do mention merry christmas or do you have caroling we will do this to you? >> we are coming after you strong and hard. that's what the threat is right there. >> bill: is it though? is it a stated threat. >> of course.

to me this is very clear. if you read this letter, which we have. they clearly state that we feel you are engaging in indoctrination, which is unfair, inappropriate, unconstitutional and they focus specifically on christmas. santa and his elves is a bad scary thing. it's ridiculous. >> bill: you are a pagan, right? >> yeah. >> that's right. >> bill: tough on wiehl tonight. she is not a pagan. >> not at all. >> bill: indoctrination into what? >> indoctrination into christianity. >> bill: why? just because you think the baby jesus in a nice effect on civilization? >> i know, it's crazy. i think it looks like a scare tactic. >> bill: you think it's crazy? >> no one sentence in here that you can pars out and say we're going to come after you and sue if you you have a christmas parade or christmas pageant. >> bill: they don't want mention christmas. >> you can mention christmas if you mention also a long list. >> bill: merry christmas happy kwanzaa,.

>> winter soltis, everything. >> bill: do they not know there is a federal holiday that all the federal offices are closed on christmas day voted upon in the congress? >> right. >> bill: does the aclu not know that. >> of course the people at aclu would know that because they work at the aclu and it's going to be closed on christmas. >> bill: that's right. we're going to demand that every aclu office be open on christmas. >> exactly. >> bill: if you are not open, i will scorn you. >> exactly. send wiehl after them. there was also a rasmussen poll in 2009 that 83% of americans actually believe in these religious holidays. >> bill: they are indoctrinated. they're all brain washed, everybody. >> they don't have constitutional leg to stand on. bill. >> what do like about it is the scary tactic. if you don't do this we're coming after you. >> bill: the aclu nuts. in chicago, the woman was supposed to get married. the fiance backed out and she is

suing him, wiehl for $95,000? >> that's what she put out for the wedding costs. she put $30,000 into renting a hall, another $11,000 on her dress. >> bill: when did he back out? >> four days before the wedding. >> bill: she wants to be paid back for all expenses. >> exactly. >> bill: that sounds logical. >> that is totally reasonable. he should be a man and pay for half of it at the least. >> bill: he should pay for all of it? >> take it to the o'reilly court. >> bill: fine. hey you pinhead, if you are going to back out four days. he is a pinhead. you pay the 95 k. why should this woman who is already suffering emotionally i'm sure. >> right. he spends all the money at the pink monkey at a bachelor party. >> bill: did she actually pay for the bachelor party. >> no. >> bill: we don't want to get into the pink monkey. >> illinois has a breech of marriage law. old, old law. but she is going to win on that. >> bill: they weren't married

yet. >> breech of promise to marry. >> bill: if you are engaged in illinois and you don't go through with it you can get sued no matter what. >> you can only be sued for real damages. things you put the money out there. not for punitive i'm mad at you. >> bill: not for emotional distress. >> not for emotional distress. >> isn't that fair and equity tillable? >> bill: i don't know if people understand this, in the traditional marriage, the bride's father picks up the tab and pays for most of it. >> here is the bride the lawyer picked up the tab. >> bill: the only reason that this pinel head in illinois four days before he supposed to get married after going to the pink monkey. >> she had to hear it from her friends. >> bill: she should sue the pink monkey. >> give back the engagement ring because she didn't go through with promise to marry. >> probably a cz. i wouldn't trust him. examine the ring.

>> bill: foreign oil saying -- guilfoyle saying it's not even real. >> bill: kate got lynn and sarah palin in the wilderness together. we will show you what happened and it isn't pretty. right back as the factor continues all across the u.s.a. and all around the world. ÷óf etfs? ÷óf exchange traded funds? don't just give me ten or twenty to choose from. come on. td ameritrade introduces commission-free etfs

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>> bill: charles krauthammer is keeping an eye on the upcoming race in 2012. because president obama is now soft in the polls. charles believes many g.o.p. contenders will emerge. i talked with him about it last night. charles, there are some polls that say that mitt romney could beat president obama today. huckabee, governor huckabee would lose but slight margin.

but sarah palin would lose by 12 points. so i want your assess: let's start with governor romney. do you think he has a chance to be the next president of the united states. >> absolutely. if you had to go where we are today you would say is he a frontrunner. he earned the trust of conservatives even though they were suspicious of him four years ago. is he best positioned. but his big weakness as everyone knows is the fact that he is governor of massachusetts. he passed a health care plan that is a lot like obama care, and whenever he speaks, he has to spend the first 15 minutes explaining why they are not the same. >> bill: governor huckabee assess his chances very good campaigner, very personal man, did okay last time around. you say? >> oh, i think he has sort of established himself as a major player as opposed to last time when he came out of nowhere out of the pack as the one guy who emerged from obscurity, essentially. i think he has got a following, obviously the fact that he is on television, he has done well.

as you say, he is appear poo poo. is he genial i think is important. he could be like the default candidate that most republicans could live with because he doesn't have the sharp edges. >> bill: so you believe that he is a viable guy, could raise the kind of money that you need. we know romney can raise the money. could raise the kind of money and could be competitive. >> look. we're going to have a race maybe a dozen people. everybody and his uncle is going to run because there is a sense that obama is weak. and if you are ever going to run for the presidency for the republican nomination, do it now. you can get lucky the way obama did in 2008. so, i think it's going to be -- you may not need that much money. you may not have to get 50% in iowa or new hampshire. you can. >> bill: some on the ballot. >> so many people you get 30% you could win. so, i think money is not going to be as constraining a factor as it would be in a two-man race. >> bill: sarah palin certainly can raise some money and has a very hard core base who love

her. but running 12 points behind president obama much further back than either romney or huckabee. first of all, why is she running that far behind? >> she is political phenomenon of remarkable proportions. she has her problem is sort of like the way hillary was in the late 1990s, a very strong constituency pro among liberals hillary had, of course, but then very high negatives among people who are not her fans. and that is a liability if you are running for the presidency. >> bill: is it the media's fault that she has such negatives or her fault. >> i think the media has contributed enormously the unanimous to her is unprecedented. she handled it reasonably well. when you have that much opposition, it's very hard to overcome that but i think in part it is that she is not practiced in policy. the katie couric interview that she originally had was not, you know, a gotcha interview.

there were fairly simple questions that she had trouble answering. i think that damaged her in the eyes of even nonideological people. now, i would have hoped that she would spend the next years sort of getting really deep into policy and becoming expert the way other candidates have done as they mature and approach the presidency. she hasn't. she has a political star. she is out there. very attractive but politically, ideologically to large segment of republicans. but i think if you want to expand your base, you have to get into policy even though it sounds dull. that's really important. there is a threshold people have to feel about a president. a lot of republicans have that sense that she passes it. but a lot of neutral people ideologically, neutral people don't. >> bill: all right. last question, is there anybody in the republican party that you would say, look, this guy or gal should run and i think that they're very good? one person? >> mitch daniels, governor of indiana, a budget director of

the bush administration. a very smart guy. very nuts and bolts. very smart. has done wonderful stuff in indiana to show he can govern. this could be an election in 2012 where the country is going to say we tried the charisma and romance in 2008 and it turned into a disaster. he had the speech, he could talk, but he couldn't govern. and i think you might have a mood of an electorate saying this time let's go with somebody who doesn't have a charisma. in fact, that might be a plus. but who is hands on, reliable, smart policy oriented and who will fix the country. that would be his appeal if he were to run. >> bill: all right, charles. thanks very much as always. >> pleasure. >> bill: in a moment, pinheads and patriots kate gosselin and sarah palin as you have never seen them before.

>> bill: pinheads and patriots starring kate gosselin and sarah palin in a moment. but first the no spin i will ofs are churning out the american patriot mat, classy gift at a nice price. variety of mugs, hats, shirts. jackets and sweatshirts are sold out. these things are very good. this great deal remains. become a billoreilly.com premium member we will send you a copy of pinheads and patriots free. if you want signed copies you

have to act now. all the i get goes to charity. we want to thank you all, we are having a huge month. finally the best $20 gift ever invented. you will will have it. now the mail: >> bill: excellent point. signed copy of pinheads and patriots on the way to you in england.

bill buy i don't care about that i want stability in the economy. if bill clinton can help, good. >> bill: i can't thank you enough folks. i think you will be pleased with the quality and service we provide. great christmas gifts they are. i design these things, really nice. i have them in my house. and i don't put anything cheap in my house. tonight pinheads and patriots, as you know sarah palin has a reality program where she runs around alaska doing outdoor stuff. for some reason she invited kate gosselin to come along on a camping trip, it didn't work out. >> i don't see a table, i don't see hand cleansing

materials. this is not ideal conditions. i am freezing to the bone. i have 19 layers on. my hands are freezing. i held it together as long as i could and i'm done now. >> bill: maybe a big bear would -- now we know, you will say miss gosselin is a pinhead. we want to find out like with al sharpton last week the margin of pinheadedness. you can vote on billoreilly.com. last night we featured putin singing fats domino. ♪ i found my thrill on blueberry hill ♪ >> bill: the bear could eat him too. 64% say putin is a pinhead. 36% believes he's a patriot. for some reason that escapes

me. check out the fox news factor website different from billoreilly.com. we would like you to spout off from anywhere in the world. vladimir we are waiting to hear from you. oreilly@foxnews.com. name a town if you wish to 0 . here's the word today, no gasconading. remember the spin stops right here >> good morning. it's wednesday, december 15th. i'm dana perino in for gretchen carlson today. shocking moments inside a florida school board meeting when a man pulls a gun and opens fire at the school superintendents. today, we'll talk to him. >> those pictures are amazing. meanwhile, christmas dinner on capitol hill could include a healthy serving of pork.