>> alisyn: huge show tomorrow. the day of the iowa caucuses. mitt romney, rick santorum, also rick perry's wife, anita, and the son of candidate ron paul, senator rand paul will be here. >> steve: see you tomorrow. bill: now down to the wire in iowa. we are closing in on the first presidential contest of this 2012 election season. there is one day to go and a critical indication about who is up and who is down. brand new polling numbers show which way folks are leaning. "real clear politics" average of all the poll. mitt romney on top. ron paul behind him at 20%. look how close that is, man. good morning, everybody. a whole new year here in "america's newsroom." i'm bill hemmer. martha: you did a fantastic job, you and megyn, times square. bill: thank you very much. martha: congratulations you brought the new year in with a bang. we're excited. things are heating up. good morning, everybody. the candidates are

supercharging their ground games. they're hoping how many people can turn out in this caucus process. so far looks like anybody's race. bill: sure does. right now the mitt romney holds the edge of the front-runner. does he have a chance, if not who does? we have extensive team coverage of the caucuses here on fox. first, john roberts, live on the road, dubuque, iowa. what is the latest from the trail, john? good morning. >> reporter: good morning, bill. we're headed out to three mitt romney events as he tries to spend last campaign with voters. start in dubuque and marion, i iowa, after that. the latest des moines stege remember poll has him 24%. ron paul close on his heels at 20 two% and and rick santorum surging at 15%. if you look at santorum's surge, he could actually be in iowa voters mind ahead of mitt romney. romney has a lot of work to do in the next 24 hours to

convince iowa caucus-goers that he is the guy who can best represent their interests in washington after the november election. it is a bit of a tough road to hoe, if you think he has 24, 25%, bill, that means 75% of people who will caucus on tuesday night don't really support him. bill: wow! what is his appeal then, john? what is his final push specifically? >> reporter: the appeal is most, well, what he has to do, he has to win over some social conservatives. he does have support from a lot of fiscal conservatives who like his ceo background. even though the economy is pretty good here in iowa with only 5.7% unemployment that the country needs a good steward of the economy. the problem is winning over the social conservatives who look at mitt romney. they think he was a bit of a moderate as massachusetts governor. they don't quite trust him on the issues as they do say santorum. he has to win those people over. he is keeping an eye toward

november. an appeal yesterday in council bluffs in the wernl part of iowa saying i am the only one who can go the distance against president obama in november. i'm the one you have to vote for on caucus night. bill: 55 miles an hour, john roberts on the road in dubuque, iowa. thank you very much for that. knew year's night on times square. one politician advertising on the billboards. romney 2012. very surprising strategy. martha: john, makes a good point there. electability. iowa has to decide whether or not they want to continue to be on the map in the electoral process by picking a winner. if they go that route and want someone electable. some of the polls indicate they may lean that way. the race in past couple days getting feisty. newt gingrich is claiming his rival is trying to buy his name to the nomination ahead of the iowa caucuses.

gingrich angry over a slew of negative ads launched by romney supporters out there. listen to what newt had to say. >> mr. speaker, what did you say coming out of mass that it appears governor romney is trying to buy an election? >> i was looking at the "politico" analysis that the huge at of gingrich ads run by the romney pac. for a state this size to spend that many dollars on one candidate is amazing. >> do you feel swift the voted. >> no. i feel romney voted. martha: romney fired back. >> what is your response to newt gingrich that you buy an election. >> let's see, speaker gingrich announced he raised $10 million this quarter. he ought to be proud of that we're working hard to raise funds as well. this is an election however that is not being driven by

money raised. it is being driven by message, connection with the voters, debates, experience and i think, i think those are the features that are driving the campaign so far. martha: all right. those are not the only jabs that were seen on the campaign trail. more on the battle and the ramification it is has for the general election later in the show. santorum on earmarks issue. ron paul on iran. it is getting pretty ugly. bill: last night we did a show out of iowa. we got a to look how they work. church basements, school auditoriums, private homes. the republican party require the caucuses held at nearly 1800 precincts start at 7:00 central time. last no later than 9:00. any registered public -- republican voter can attend. any uge registered voters can show up at the door. martha: presidential candidate rick santorum

surging in the 11th hour. he is running an aggressive campaign as he can in iowa visiting all 99 counties. according to a "des moines register" poll, santorum has jumped 5% in a week. this is the precaucus vote we've seen in history of all of this. tuesday he was 10%. by friday he was up to 15%. his iowa team is spokening that supporters will encourage others to head out to the caucuses tomorrow. >> where you have to have faith that all of this hard work that you've done will pay off because these people will go off and organize themselves. martha: tom bevin, cofounder and executive editor of realclearpolitics.com. good to have you here. good morning and happy new year to you. >> good morning, martha. happy new year to you too. martha: it is interesting. "the des moines register" pollster says she can not remember seeing such a dramatic surge for a

candidate in final days of polling. that santorum's move is unprecedented according to the register. >> that is indicative of this entire race where we've seen candidates catch fire and ride the huge waves of momentum and support only to fall down. santorum is the last man standing catching the wave at the right time there is momentum. these polls, perceptions become reality. a lot of these voters will entir the caucuses undecided and may want to go with the candidate who has momentum and seems to be winner and that could play to santorum's benefit certainly. martha: whether or not rick santorum is electable as i was hinting to a few moments ago will about. iowa wants very much according to all the reports we're hearing to stay influential in this process. will they lean toward a rick santorum who may appeal to the values of iowans more directly, or, to a mitt romney who they may see more ultimately electable?

>> that is the question. we'll find out tonight. certainly that is the argument romney is using. that is also the argument rick perry is using in the final days. you saw him use it yesterday on "fox news sunday" with chris wallace. he said i'm the consistent conservative in this race who can go the distance and organization and money to move beyond the early states that is something whether rick santorum, spent all the time in iowa, laid the groundwork which is paid off now but question is has that not allowed him to lay the groundwork in other early states and where does he go if he does well or win tomorrow night? martha: that is huge question in terms of what kind of momentum it could build for him in races to come in new hampshire and florida and south carolina. one of the interesting things, the indications in some of those polls, tom, rick santorum's supporters are very fervent. they say will probably show up at the caucus, they say they definitely will show up at the caucus for him.

interesting. >> yeah. i mean that's what you need as much as we focused on the debates and the polls and popularity you still need a good ground game here in iowa. you still need to have, identify the supporters and get them turned out on caucus night. that is what santorum has done very effectively under the radar. he has visited all 99 counties. he has done more events than anyone. we're starting to see that reflecting now finally in the polls. martha: we talked to him here. he has been saying the past several weeks it would come down to iowa and he believed he would be a surprise in first or second place. who knows how this will end up. tom, great job for covering this for us. we'll see you in coming days. thanks a lot. >> you bet. thank you. martha: all right. let's get over to bill who is taking a look what is going on the big screen there. bill: history will tell us a lot on the touch-screen billboard behind us, martha. we wanted to find out how the winners found a way to victory four years ago, especially when it comes to the republican caucuses.

now you go back to the iowa caucuses back four years ago, huckabee was the winner and mitt romney trailed him. what we wanted to do was take the state and look at the state of as a whole, broken down in all 99 counties. huckabee won everything in the deep red. mitt romney won everything in the light red. you see where romney is here on the western side of the state tends to be more conservative. romney was a winner in many of those counties. on the eastern side of the state romney took all these counties as well which tends to be a little more liberal. he book marked the state with one exception, down here in the bottom right-hand corner. that is jefferson county. you know who won there? ron paul. if ron paul is going to make up some ground or somebody like rick santorum if the surge in the polls is accurate, they will pick up votes in the center part of the state where huckabee did very well just four years ago. at the moment we're waiting mitt romney at a campaign stop in eastern iowa right

now kicking off today. a series of rallies. we just talked to john roberts there. three on the map. mississippi valley fairgrounds in dubuque, iowa. romney takes the stage in a moment. we'll tune in there and drop on in a moment to let you know what happens there as soon as that begins. stay tuned for a lot more on that. martha: he is getting ready to just that. he is in eastern iowa where he did pretty well. we saw ann romney a little while ago. they made a lot of friends and hope to keep them this time around. tomorrow is the big day, can you believe it? finally here, iowa caucuses. tomorrow on fox news, your home base for up to the minute news in the first in the nation iowa caucuses. our special coverage begins tomorrow at 6:00 p.m. eastern here on fox news channel. bill and i will both be here covering all of that. it will be very exciting. bill: give us first indication what people are thinking and how they're feeling too. it is fascinating when it rolls in. those are some of the many stories we're watching. also in a moment here coming

up there is breaking news, right? martha: that's right. on a streak of devastating fires, more than 50 arsons in less than a week. now the possible new clues that police have found in this surveillance video. bill: also armed and dangerous. a massive manhunt underway for this man here, accused of killing a female park ranger. new reports where he might be hiding out. we'll have details on that coming up. martha: he is moving his texas forces into battleground iowa. rick perry's wife, anita perry, will talk to us here live in just a couple minutes. can he pull off a win? >> there will be about 350 texans show up here this weekend that know me best, the mighty texas task force is on the way. [ male annouer ] juice drink too watery?

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martha: we are one day away, folks, from the iowa caucuses and gop candidates are making their final round today. they're hoping for that last-minute win over of some of the hearts an minds of these caucus-goers. listen to some of the gop hopefuls in their final push. >> 10 days ago i was at 5% and every question i got was, why don't you pack it up? why don't you endorse another candidate. 10 days later saying oh you've got to win. >> at time people watch me beaten up. there is very nice guy not getting beaten up. and getting a good residual benefit. >> there is lot of

differences between myself and rick santorum. as michelle talks about he has a spending problem. he has an earmark problem. martha: we're awaiting right now. that was a look at some of them from the weekend shows. mitt romney will be in davenport moments from now. there is his big slogan out. a lot of folks there. his wife says they're getting a big turnout everywhere they're going. we will dip into that and hear live comments this morning. bill: closing arguments. rick perry talking about his closing argument today. his message. >> americans are standing up and saying you know what? we want an outsider coming into washington, d.c., not tainted with the corruption and fraud they have seen from washington to wall street. that is the reason i think my message is resonating out here. they know that there is a governor who has overseen, chief executive officer, of a state that has created a million jobs over the last year while the country lost two million. let's try that in washington, d.c.. bill: so the candidates spouses playing a vocal role on the trail and among them

is anita perry, the wife of the texas governor. she is live now in des moines. good morning to you. we are one day to go. i know you've been all over that state and south carolina as well. rick santorum was taking some shots at your husband over the weekend and santorum, according to the polls anyway, seems to be gaining a lot of ground. what do you make of, of his comments? >> you know, i really haven't focused on his comments. we're focused on ours. we've been on the bus in iowa and the enthusiasm and the energy for rick perry is apparent out there. so i'm just excited to be focused on our campaign and trying to get the message out and help rick however i can. bill: you know what he said earlier on "fox and friends"? he said you have 1500 precinct representatives throughout iowa. that is very impressive on paper, out of about 17 or 1800 total presents, 1794 to be exact. why is that important in iowa do you believe to your

campaign? >> i think organization with anything is important and we have been very blessed that people believe in rick perry and they believe in his message and they know he is the true washington outsider that can come in and change the economy and climate to change jobs. they're excited about him. i feel it on the bus tour wherever we've been. i've hadn'ts and democrats say, you know we're taking a look at rick perry now and we're going to vote for him and so it is so exciting for us because i know what this man can do and i've seen what he has done in texas so we're looking forward to this. bill: if you finish in the top three, that's huge. i mean you walk out of iowa and you've got a major headline. but if you finish down the ballot at four or number five, what does that do to your campaign? >> you know, we're going forward, bill. we feel the momentum and enthusiasm and the energy. we've got the ground game. we've got the money. we've got the organization, so we're going forward and we intend to compete.

you know, i think still there are several, a large percentage of iowans who haven't made their mind up who they are voting for. that's what i'm hearing. bill: that is true. the poll, i don't mean to interrupt you, the poll shows that close to 50% could be. the number over the weekend was 41%. regardless of what happens tomorrow night do you go straight to south carolina and skip new hampshire all together? >> oh absolutely not. we're going to be in new hampshire and south carolina. i don't have the exact schedule. so i'm not sure about that but we will be in both of those states. bill: what is your strongest appeal in these closing hours to voters in iowa, to go with your man? >> a true conservative. a principled conservative. a ceo of the second largest state in the nation. if texas were a stand-alone economy, we would be 13th largest economy in the world. a man who truly is a leader. who will get america back to work and we will have the america again that we all

knew. bill: we're about to find out very soon if they buy your husband's argument. thank you. anita perry, live in des moines. good luck to you. >> thank you so much. bill: we'll talk after iowa. >> thank you, bill. thank you. martha: strangers staging a heroic rescue saving three children from a sinking car. amazing brand new pictures. this is an unbelievable story heroism. that story is coming up. bill: sure is. a possible break for police in a recent string of arsons. this is big story. how the video you're watching right now is critical to their investigation. >> by the time i got out there the whole carport was engulfed. it was probably one of the craziest things i've ever seen, just engulfed completely. heartbeat, and that it put me at 5-times greater risk of a stroke. i was worried. i worried about my wife, and my family. bill has the mos common type of atrial fiillation, or afib. it's not caused by a heart valve problem.

he was taking warfarin, but i've put him on pradaxa instead. in a clinical trial, pradaxa 150 mgs reduced stroke risk 35% more than warfarin without the need for regular blood tests. i sure was glad to hear that. pradaxa can cause serious, sometimes fatal, bleeding. don't take pradaxa if you have abnormal bleeding, and seek immediate medical care for unexpected signs of bleeding, like unusual bruising. pradaxa may increase your bleeding risk if you're 75 or older, have a bleeding condition like stomach ulcers, or take aspirin, nsaids, or bloodthinners, or if you have kidney problems, especially if you take certain medicines. tell your doctor about all medicines you take, any planned medical or dental procedures, and don't stop taking pradaxa without your doctor's approval, as stopping may increase your stroke ri. other side effects include indigestio stomach pain, upset, or burning. pradaxa is progress. if you have afib not caused by a heart valve problem, ask your doctor if you can reduce your risk of stroke with pradaxa.

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bill: so how important is it

to a candidate's campaign in iowa? one guy who knows this very well is the former arkansas governor, mike huckabee, host of "the huckabee show" on the fox news channel. he was number one in 2008. here is what he believes candidates can learn from the people in iowa tomorrow. >> one of the things they can learn iowa is great launching pad but not the finishing point. whipping iowa put knee in completely different plain. that wouldn't have happened and wouldn't end up as runner-up for john mccain had it not been for iowa. all the people that say iowa doesn't really matter. that is nonsense. it matters a lot. every single major political reporter in the world has been camped out at iowa past month indicates something is important or they wouldn't follow all these candidates around. bill: after iowa, you might remember, john mccain went on to be the 2008 republican nominee because he had a big

comeback in new hampshire which followed a week later. he was fourth. martha: a fox news alert. a major break in a wave of devastating arson attacks in los angeles. this is brand new video of a dozen new fires, several of them reporting early hours of this morning. fire officials say that bring as total number of suspected arsons to 55. we're now learning police detained a person of interest. william la jeunesse is live in los angeles with the breaking news this morning. what is the latest on this, william? >> reporter: well, martha, they took this individual in between 3:00 and 4:00 this morning. that is just two, 2 1/2 hours ago. we have some brand new video of that individual who does seem to match the surveillance video that was taken way back in december 12 or december 30th, rather. he looks about 30 years old, white, receding hairline a ponytail. arrested between sunset and fairfax in hollywood near a fire that had ignited moments earlier. that engulfed four cars and

three apartments. they also took in his van which appeared to have out-of-state or canadian plates. since friday, as you said, 55 fires tied to arson. most between the hours of midnight and 5:00 a.m. on friday. the suspect was able to ignite 19 fires within a four-hour period all within a two-mile radius. so the person you're looking at there is the quote, person of interest who is now being questioned by detectives. martha? martha: amazing. he looks fairly calm in those pictures, with. he almost has a smile on his face at one point. how are they set? what was the method of action here? and has anybody been injured? >> reporter: all these fires were started in cars or under the engine block. then in most cases they spread to carports, garage, apartments, homes. miraculously no one was hurt, only property damage. police declined to say what evidence tied the cases the together or provide evidence

or what the ignition source was. the type of timing devices or fuses that may have been used. detectives were concerned that by releasing this information they could prompt other arsonists to copycat what was occurring. police did bring in extra manpower. they kept people overtime. they basically set up some roadblocks near these fires, hoping to catch the individual as he was going through the arson series if you will before he went back into hiding. finally they did bring in about 30 national arson investigators from the bureau of alcohol tobacco, firearms and explosives to assist. they have his van and him in custody. there is good chance, martha, if there is evidence and if this is the guy they're likely to find it in that van. back to you. martha: william, thank you very much. bill: all the headlines there in southern california, that story. there were new developments now in this battle over a key swing state in 2012. two candidates failing to make virginia's primary ballot. this morning there was already new reaction from one of them after a major

reversal from the state's attorney general. we'll have that. martha: big story over the weekend. we'll talk about that. the fight to the finish in iowa just got a little bit uglier this morning. candidates ramping up their attacks. newt gingrich and mitt romney going at it. gingrich's campaign joins us with their response moments away. >> it would be good. >> [inaudible]. >> 3 1/2 million dollars in negative ads, you tell me.

bill: as we mentioned mitt romney now showing up at his event, first event of the day, davenport, iowa, eastern part of the state. romney did very well there four years ago. he is back there plowing familiar territory. we'll check in on his message in a moment as the campaign works to the final closing argument before the caucus tomorrow. martha: we'll zip into that in a moment. first presidential candidate rick perry moments ago responding to the battle over virginia's ballot system.

it one is fascinating folks. virginia's attorney general is reconsidering his call to change the ballot rules in his state after several candidates failed to qualify for the primary there. here is what the texas governor has to say about all this. let's play it. >> my problem i have hundreds of thousands of people who want to support me. the veterans down in the norfolk area and active duty military that are big supporters of mine. they will be disenfranchised. so the republican party in virginia will have to address this. i mean how in the world can you only let two people on your ballot because you made it so difficult? martha: those two people are mitt romney and ron paul. okay, so they're the only ones who made it onto this ballot. virginia is considered the most strict when it comes to these requirements. candidates have to show support across the whole state. they have to get at least 10,000 signatures, including 400 in each of the state's 11 congressional districts apart from virginia, difficult states are indiana, illinois and west virginia.

jay sekulow from the center for law and justice joins us. good morning. good to see you. >> good morning, martha. happy new year to you. martha: happy new year to you. does rick perry have a point? i have all the supporters in virginia and the their voice will not be heard? >> the rules are the rules. two candidates qualified this time, that was mitt romney and ron paul n 2008, six candidates qualified for the same rules. so the rules are in place. you either meet the rules or you don't. if you don't like the rules, changing them is one thing but you can't change them midstream here. these two campaigns, the romney campaign and the paul campaign spent the time, resources and efforts to comply with the rules and met the requirements. the other campaigns did not. to retroactively go back and change those rules now, does not follow the rule of law and i'm glad my good friend, virginia attorney general ken cuccinelli has decided not to intervene there. i also understand this morning coming out of virginia, we have a large office in virginia, that in

fact there is not going to be a special session, doesn't look like of the legislate ture to deal with this so the rules are the rules. the candidates have to comply with the rules. unfortunately for governor perry and speaker gingrich they didn't make the cut. martha: my blackberry was buzzing over the weekend on this story. i find it really interesting what ken cuccinelli says first, i think we can change this in time for this november election. i think we can get these people on the ballot. then he turned around and said this. let's look what he said after he changed his mind on this my concern grows we can not find a way to make changes fair to the romney and paul campaigns that qualified even with virginia's burdensome system. why did he change his mind you? said was a good friend. >> the reality is the rules have been set in place. gary bauer's campaign qualified back in 2000. that was smaller campaign. he met the requirements. the requirements were known by the candidates. they were specific. if they are in fact burdensome they're not unconstitutional by the way. i argued portion on campaign

finance case. not a question of constitutionality you can fix them going forward. but to say the other campaigns we'll allow you in when the romney campaign and paul campaign expended the resources time and money to meet the qualifications the stringent qualifications for the commonwealth of virginia would not be fair and right. the rules are the rules. in this situation i understand that some people feel like their potential supporters are being disenfranchised. i think that misses the point there was a qualification requirement. those qualifications were not net met by various campaigns. it sounds rough-and-tumble. that is what the rule of law is. martha: these guys played by the rules and they made it there in time. >> right. martha: it is a persuasive argument. jay, thank you so much for laying it out. jay sekulow. >> my pleasure. bill: watch that story. also watch this. a month ago newt gingrich was soaring in the iowa.

he is the headline. now that surge appears to be fading in the closing days. now this is the latest "real clear politics" polling average. romney leads at 22%. you see gingrich there in the middle of the pact falling to fourth with less than 14% of the vote. what does all that mean? kelly conway, pollster and senior advisor to the gingrich campaign. good morning to you. what explains this. >> good morning, to you, bill. lovely to be with you. many things have happened. the statistics show that newt absorbed 45% of all ads run in iowa just in the month of december. 45% were negative ads on newt gingrich. he has gone from headline to punch line. we underestimated how nasty and vie typer tiff it was to get. bill: is that too much of an easy way to explain this? consider in november he was at 25%. we just showed is nearly

half of that. >> right. well these things have a settling effect. as you know especially in, especially what happened in iowa over the course of time people have been changing their mind as they get to know the candidates. bill: that is true. >> we think some of this negative advertising has caused some pause in some voters but we believe in these closing days newt has been able to take his case directly to the voters. and i also just point out for you, bill, very little of this, all this negative stuff, i me literally $10 million in paid advertising by these romney super pacs just against newt really hasn't helped romney. i think that is a credit to the voters where they may be pausing a about the subject matter of these horrible ads but they're also starting to punish the sponsor of them who they see at romney. romney at 23%. he has been running full-time for president five years. his seal something very close together. he basically has 75% of the iowa electorate is non-romney.

has not taken one negative ad. bill: we'll see what happens with him tomorrow night. we'll find out what happens to your man as well. the criticism from gingrich at the moment that he had a poor ground game in iowa as you well know you need historically speaking. you need a great ground game in make inroads in the top three. is that where this campaign has come up short? >> we have some great people on the ground in iowa who have been with newt from the beginning and stuck with him through the really lean months, particularly june and july when everybody left our campaign for dead. but at the same time, you see the strength of putting, going all in had iowa which what rick santorum has done. he has the one who went to 99 counties. spent more time and more events than any of the republican candidates and that is certainly reaping reward for santorum. we're running a 50-state campaign also. you will see newt, pay very close attention, bill, to newt's speech tomorrow night on tuesday after the caucuses. if anybody is looking for a

concession speech they will see fire and brimstone he will go to new hampshire compete there, south carolina and florida. we think eventually this is two-man, 50-state race and we're ready for it. bill: if that is the case it will be fascinating to watch. kellyanne conway, thank you very much. >> thank you, bill. bill: we'll listen from the speech from gingrich following tomorrow night's results. thanks. martha: a lot of people battling to say it is not over after this iowa caucus. michele bachmann said the same thing this morning. we have our plane tickets already for south carolina and florida. we'll see where this goes. stick with us over the next 48 hours, folks. democratic party launching new attacks against mitt romney. what does the republican candidate think about all this? his senior advisor will talk about what mitt romney thinks. bill: a massive manhunt to find this man right here. police believed he gunned down a park ranger. disturbing new details we're now learning about him. >> we don't have a helicopter up because that is a concern.

you're going to have to fly very low if you're up here and we have somebody with a high-powered rifle. we're guessing this would be somebody that would shoot at a helicopter. approach to food is to keep it whole for better nutrition. and that's what they do with great grains cereal. see the seam on the wheat grain? same as on the flake. because great grains steams and bakes the actual whole grain. now check out the other guy's flake. hello, no seam. because it's more processed. now, which do you suppose has better nutrition for you? mmm. great grains. the whole whole grain cereal.

martha: let's get you a look what a happening right now in "america's newsroom." a new year but still gridlock on capitol hill. the battle over the 1700 mile oil pipeline from canada to texas continues. congress will be back on that in session two weeks from now.

the east coast saying fair well to fair weather a major cold front is pushing across the great lakes. that is bringing snow and frigid temperatures in six states. we've had none of that. that will be the first for this winter. police in california are preparing for a new year's parade with 99%ers. "occupy wall street" are expected to take part in pasadena's row easy parade along with a 70-foot okay -- octopus puppet to show extent of america's corporations. bill: is that oregon, wisconsin? martha: i don't know. bill: should have called my bookie. kidding. race in iowa still up for grabs. many caucus-goers undecided. 24 hours to go. like republicans nationwide switching favorites repeatedly. brand new polling show another sign of the race's volatility is right here. 41%, the bottom number of likely caucus-goers say they could still be persuaded to change their minds. former chairman of the iowa

republican party is the steve grubs. former iowa campaign chairman for herman cain. steve, good morning to you out there in des moines s this normal or is this an abnormal year, do you think? >> definitely an abnormal year. i've never seen this many undecideds going into the final attorney. the person who does the polling for "des moines register" says the same thing. this is the point where the bandwagon effect makes a difference. bill: why do you think it is that way? >> it has been an unusual year. first of all the had the candidates rise and their critics whether their opponents or in the media have brought out their baggage. that weighs heavily on voters. now you have this final candidate who is peaking at the right time and really doesn't seem to have a lot of baggage that has been brought out yet, so you have rick santorum surging. bill: what i am hearing there is question of excitedness on behalf of the iowa voter. do you sense that?

based on turnout at some of these events. if you go back four years ago there were thousands who turned out. likewise in 2004 but this year it is maybe a couple hundred. is that true? >> no. i see a lot of excited voters. people are very interested and you know, one of the differences is how close it is to the holidays. you've got iowans who have competing family conflicts. but i think you're going to see turnout at least as high as it was four years ago. we've got a lot of great candidates to choose from. i think the excitement in the final three where you have a libertarian, sort of an establishment candidate and one conservative who will go onto the out states i think that brings extra excitement for iowa voters. bill: put this on the screen too. we can show our viewers at home also what we found. this was a question for republican caucusgoers. look at the bottom of your screen. is this your first caucus? 27% say yes. now is that the youth vote?

is that people just eligible to attend? or is that a changing dynamic in iowa do you think given the state of the country? >> i was chairman in 1998 of the republican party and we saw similar things in the 2000 caucus when i eventually ended up working with steve forbes. the caucuses always have a lot of new people that are participating. this is not a normal election. you have to commit yourselves to hanging out with other republicans for an hour to two hours and discussing issues. you also have a lot of new people that is good for the process. i also think ron paul drives a part of that process. bill: how come? >> ron paul brings in new voters, nontraditional voters that is the really difficult thing about the polling is because you, because you brings in some independents and democrats it get as lot tougher to really measure his true vote. four years ago the register did a very good job. they got within a percentage point. for most pollsters it is

difficult to know, do you poll traditional republican pry marry voters and reach out to democrats and independents if they show. bill: "des moines register" put out a poll shows mitt romney and ron paul neck-and-neck. within the margin of error. santorum seems to be gaining steam. we'll see whether or not that plays out. seven switches in the lead according to poll. thank you, steve. live in des moines. we'll see what happens. thank you. martha: remember, tomorrow is the big day, folks. fox news is your home base for up to the minute news in the first in the nation iowa caucuses. our special coverage gets rolling 6:00 p.m. eastern. get ready for the big night on fox news channel. bill and i will be with you throughout the morning and throughout the evening. bill: iowa has a way sending us in a direction we can not anticipate. even though we expect certain things to happen it always surprises us which will make tomorrow night hugely interesting. martha: it certainly will. bill: check us out.

martha: had you heard about this, mitt romney turning to kim kardashian on the campaign trail? bill: how about that? voters are everywhere. martha: there is a bit of a parallel between the president and this young lady. we'll talk about that. bill:. good samaritan spirit alive and well. how three kids and a driver survived. this picture here when their car landed upside down in an icy river. listen. >> the man next to me started yelling, my son, my son is still in the car. he is on the other side. we have to flip the car. i looked in and i could see his boy, you know, upside down in the water. her recipe with sharon, who emailed it to emily, who sent it to cindy, who wondered why her soup wasn't quite the same. the recipe's not the recipe... ohhh. [ female announcer ] ...without swanson. the broth cooks trust most when making soup. mmmm! [ female announcer ] the secret is swanson.

bill: oregon and wisconsin. martha: thank you for clearing that up. bill: can't wait.

republican contender mitt romney comparing president obama's track record to kim kardashian's shored lived marriage, 73 odd days i think that's what it was? have a listen. >> i'm been looking at some video clips on youtube of president obama, then candidate obama, going through iowa, making promises, and i think the gap between his promises and his performance is the largest i've scene, well, since the kardashian wedding and the promise of till death do we part. bill: 72 days by the way. woe missed it by one. martha: who is counting. short but sweet. bill: that's right. romney also argued that president obama has failed to reach across the aisles when elected and he promises to repeal the health care law passed two years ago. martha: do you think he watches the kardashians? mitt romney? bill: i doubt it. i doubt it. martha: there she is for all the folks at home.

iran is test firing new missiles this morning near a major oil export route capping off days of war games over the course of this weekend but tehran says more tests will indeed be coming and it is all part of their preparation for new sanctions from the west. this is a very heated situation right now. amy kellogg is joining us live on this in london. she spent an extensive amount of time in tehran. what do we know, amy, about this new nuclear missile? >> reporter: well it is not necessarily a nuclear missile, martha, but we don't know all that much about it. iran this morning is bragging about two different missiles it tested during these exercises in the persian gulf. the one is called the gadarir. it is supposed hit ships. mirav is supposed to hit planes. they have been very short on specifics, supposedly it is an upgrade of a previously rolled out missile but that

missile only had a range of 124 miles which really doesn't make it long-range in our parlance but basically this is a message that iran is sending that it is trying to project to ways. one is that iran is able to block the straits of hormuz if it wants to and it is self-sufficient and making its own missiles, martha. martha: they're testing something else too, right, amy? >> reporter: they did, martha. they produced and test ad nuclear fuel rod. now this is significant because they didn't have this before and when you question iran's nuclear program, even, martha, if you're just talking about its energy program, it has been enriching all this uranium which of course the outside world is concerned will be diverted to a nuclear bomb. if you're considering foreign energy program and iran only has one nuclear energy plant and can't produce fuel rods for it. if in effect it has made the fuel rod it does signify the

progress but it has taken an awfully long time to produce and we don't know how save it will be, martha. martha: everybody is watching this. no doubt it will be a major focus in the general election. amy, thank you very much. amy kellogg. >> reporter: you're welcome. bill: more of our special iowa election coverage momentarily. mitt romney about to start one event. newt gingrich will be at a meet and greet a few moments from now. which group of voters could end up deciding the whole thing? we'll tell you. martha: this manhunt is on going for a murderer in one of the country's largest national parks after a ranger is gunned down. detail ons this on suspect's past and how it could affect the search. >> a huge tragedy, you know, for her family, for the park, for the park service as well okay, team! after age 40, we can start losing muscle -- 8% every 10 years. wow. wow. but you can help fight muscle loss with exercise and ensure muscle health. i've got revigor. what's revigor? it's the amino acid metabolite, hmb

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arkansas march the new year has begun, and we are now just 24 hours away from the first voting in the 2012 presidential race, if you can belief -- believe it. so far in this campaign there have been four different leaders and seven lead changes. gallup is now reporting this morning that this has been the most volatile primary since the advent of polling, folks, and that's how we start a brand new hour of "america's newsroom." great to have you with us on this 2012 morning. i'm martha maccallum. bill: i'm bill hemmer. happy new year to you. all of the gallup reports just

build it is drama and the uncertainty for what's going to play out tomorrow. steve brown's live in polk county where rick santorum's holding rally. martha: ron paul won just one county last time around, but he has a shot, ron paul, at winning tomorrow night, doesn't he? >> reporter: he does. they're very loyal, they're very serious, and they have shown they can come out a great deal. you make reference to that gallup poll, the republicans have been saying almost all year long. they have been constantly jumping around, and that's why every candidate of the top seven has had their moment in the sun at the front runner, and rick santorum is getting his right now. mitt romney has been hovering

between 20-25% in the polls literally since he ran here four years ago and got 25% in the polls and that was second place. romney's organization is particularly strong. rick santorum's is up and coming, and ron paul could win it based upon his ability to really bring out his loyal, devoted following. and it's very important to just run the numbers here and say when you've got a multicandidate field with six candidates competing for a universe of about 120,000 votes, this race can be won with 30 or 40,000. ron paul has the devoted passion in the ranks to get his 30-40,000 folks out tomorrow night when it will be cold and windy and dark and folks will be thinking, you know, it's been a long holiday weekend, the ron paul folks are likely to come out. martha: fascinating. 120,000 votes, and you could split them up in a lot of different ways, so who knows how this is going to go. rick santorum's story is a fascinating one. he promised for a long time, carl, that he had the potential to pull off this surge. how do you think he's done it?

>> reporter: well, i can tell ya. in march of last year i had the occasion to ride up on a plane from manchester -- from d.c. to manchester, and rick santorum, quite by accident, ended up in the seat next to me. he was a little discouraged because it didn't look like he was going to get a good deal of attention in the debates, and the conversation basically went to the way one wins iowa, and it requires a tremendous amount of patience and a lot of hard work and often inobscurity, and that's exactly what he did. people say he did it the old school way or the hard way meaning he went out to the 99 counties, he visited people in tiny little diners and coffee shops. sometimes the crowds were only two or three people. he didn't let it get him down, he got us from freighted -- frustrated, but he hung in there. and one by one by one the five other anti-romneys or republicans who aren't mitt romney had their moment at the top of the polls and then went back down.

rick santorum had the benefit of coming and having his moment at the last second, literally right on top of the iowa caucuses. it is entirely possible that he could pull off a huge upset win because he's had enough evangelical pastors getting behind him. so as we told you sometime around labor day when we were at the iowa state fair, this is going to be a photo finish. now it is. martha: yeah. indeed it is. carl, fascinating stuff. and when the earmuffs come out, we know carl's in iowa, right, carl? >> reporter: and it's cold. i almost, i almost cussed for it, it's cold. [laughter] martha: you look great. thanks a lot. regardless of the polls, everybody sounding pretty confident as they go into tomorrow. take a listen to a few of them -- to how a few of them are sounding in recent sound bites. check it out. >> this is an election that's not being driven by money raised, it's being driven by connection with the voters,

debates, experience, and i think those are the features that are driving the campaign so far. >> we've been everywhere, and people really appreciated that. people told us no other candidate has told us. you're the only candidate. that is not reflected in polls, and i think that's what people are going to see on tuesday night. >> the tide has changed. now the opportunity is there, and now i'm a serious contender. martha: all right. let's look at what's heated out there, and the contenders are up in force today. we just saw mitt opny, we're going to see a couple of them. the caucuses begin at 7 p.m. tomorrow night, and they'll go for a couple of hours. bill: uh-huh. then we'll be around to say, bam. martha: exactly. bill: were you predicting this? the diaper meet and greets that go on every hour of every day and the avalanche of tv ads that are on the air in iowa, the results are anyone's guess. latest des moines register poll finding a whopping 41% of likely

voters say they could still be persuaded to change their mind. steve brown's live in polk county, iowa. rick santorum is the buzz candidate of the moment, is his corner the corner where the undecideds break in the end, steve? >> reporter: well, undecideds generally tend to start breaking more rapidly as we get closer to tuesday night, and certainly with santorum getting some attention -- quite a bit, actually -- yeah, he's going to get a second and a third look from some of those undecideds. we're at a coffee shop, excuse me, in polk county, and the undecideds are going to have the elbow their way past an awful lot of reporters that are inside to cover this particular event. awful lot of reporters, awful lot of cameras in there and not a lot of room, so it's going to be a very cozy environment in there, but, yeah, undecideds are going to break late. also in that poll you cite, 51% had their minds made up, another 7% didn't have a first choice at all and 1% wasn't sure, so maybe as much as half of the folks

that are headed off to caucus really haven't solidified on a candidate yet. bill: are the undecided caucus goers dwindling? are they moving in a direction? >> reporter: um, yes. they're moving in a bunch of different directions, and they do tend to, you know, pick candidates as we get closer to the time. but steve king, the congressman for iowa out here who has not endorsed a candidate, is himself an undecided. and he said earlier this week he's been in caucuses where he had no idea who he's going to vote for even as he's walking in and starting to listen to the various candidate speeches or speeches on behalf of the candidate. so some of these undecideds will go right down to the wire. bill: rick perry has advocates in all these precincts that are going to stand up and make the argument z to why they should support him, and we'll see whether or not that strategy pays off her film or others. thank you, steve. polk county, iowa.

steve brown. martha: mitt romney is at a campaign stop in eastern iowa, and here he is speaking about what he hopes to do if he can lead america. listen. >> are we going to remain america, the shining city on a hill with freedom and opportunity, or are we going to become something we couldn't recognize? and that's what i think this election is going to come down to. we can remember a time when things were better. these have been a tough three years. but these years have been a detour, not our destiny. we remember a time when you didn't have to worry about looking at the gas pump, and you didn't have to worry about looking at your retirement and account. and when you spent your week thinking about what movie you might take the kids to on the weekend as opposed to worrying whether you could put food on the table until the weekend. i know that those good times are still out there. and we can reclaim them. as long as we have a president who believes in the foundational principles of this nation. martha: very interesting. and, you know, rick perry's coming out with some big guns in

the next couple days, he's going to have bobby jindal and steve forbes with him, he claims he's an underdog candidate at this point, and 120,000 votes could decide this thing. so no matter how -- bill: 120,000. martha: yes. you really do not know who's going to walk out of iowa with those top three tickets. bill will that's a very populace appeal. martha: it is. bill: i don't think how long he's been on that, but it creates an image for you. when you think about your family -- martha: and he's trying to keep it about the economy in iowa. those things he's not done as well on with iowa voters, but a lot of indications we have is that iowa voters are focused on the economy despite the fact that there's is a little bit stronger than some other states. bill: now, by the way, there's no other place to watch this, right? martha: why would you watch anywhere else? who would do that? i can't think of anybody who would do that. right here, of course. fox news is the home base for the first in the nation iowa caucuses.

we're going to have special coverage of the caucuses which are this tuesday. did we mention that? tomorrow, folks. 6 p.m. eastern. get your popcorn out, because this is going to be good. bill: all right. got a fox news alert right now, a manhunt underway in washington state. police evacuating mount rainier national park which is an enormous task in itself. as they search for a gunman who killed a female park ranger on new year's day. rick leventhal's on this story for us, good morning. what do we know about the suspect? we have a picture. good morning. >> reporter: good morning, bill. this is a very dangerous pursuit for law enforcement. the prime suspect is an iraq war veteran with survival skills and deep emotional scars believed to be heavily armed with an assault rifle and a willingness to shoot. benjamin colton barnes came back with post traumatic stress disorder, she filed a restraining order saying he kept an arsenal of weapons at home.

barnes is suspected of shooting four people at a house party early sunday morning south of seattle, then he drove to mount rainier, speeding past a checkpoint at 10:20 a.m. that's when one ranger gave chase and another ranger, margaret anderson, blocked the road with her vehicle before she was shot to death. >> he immediately made a u-turn, came out and opened fire on her, put multiple rounds inside of her car, and she didn't have a chance. she never even exited the vehicle. >> reporter: anderson was a 34-year-old mother of two young children. she was married to another ranger who was in the park at the time of the shooting, bill. bill: what about the visitor who were in the park when the shooting happened? have they talked? >> reporter: well, the park was locked down, and there were roughly 125 tourists who were there. they were evacuated under cover of darkness last night. mount rainier national park has miles of wooded trails surrounding a 14,000-foot peak. it's spectacularly beautiful, also very rugged with two feet of fresh snow.

this manhunt involves 150 officers from several agencies including the washington state patrol, u.s. forest service and fbi. they also have a plane with infrared heat-seeking equipment. the suspect allegedly moving in and out of streams to try to cover his tracks. a tactical team says they've got a good track on their prey, but at last report he was way out in front of them. bill: the very latest on our web site at foxnews.com. we'll keep you posted on the search for that gunman. it's a breaking news story that's happening right now in the state of washington. martha? martha: the other big story we're on today, new threats from iran, a successful test fire of a long-range missile. there's a look at the video. so what does this mean for our security of our allies and here at home? we're going to talk to k.t. mcfarlane about this. bill: also thousands of dead birds falling from the sky in a small town for the second year in a row, same place. what in the world is causing this?

martha: and the first vote has not been cast, but the democratic party seems to have already chosen who they think their opponent is for 2012, so why the dnc is so confident that mitt romney will be the nominee. >> who's the best person to take on barack obama in? november? what these indicate to me is that iowa is starting to figure out that mitt romney is the best guy to take on barack obama in november. that's what they care about the most.

bill: we find this bizarre sight on the streets of arkansas. hundreds of blackbirds falling from the sky, and what's more, it's the second year in a row something like this has happened in that town. now, last year thousands of blackbirds plummeting to the ground. those deaths were later blamed on new year's fireworks, but this time around all the officials are saying that this is more likely an intentional and criminal offensive, so look into that. we shall. fourteen minutes past. martha: all right, the democratic party has put mitt romney very solidly in their crosshairs, focusing its 2012 campaign on attacking the republican front runner over his time working for an investment giant. the senior adviser to the romney campaign, good to see you again, welcome. >> hi, martha. thank you. martha: we've seen this coming out, it was viewed back in the massachusetts campaign when he was running for senator against ted kennedy where we've seen folks who come out who were in

companies that were laid off by some work that bain capital did. are you concerned about this? >> well, you know, martha, what's interesting is this was also used in 2002 when mitt romney ran for governor of massachusetts, and it was unsuccessful. here's the problem the democrats have. governor romney's spent his career in the private sector. twenty-five years in helping businesses turn around, create jobs. he is, you know, places like staples and sports authority and bright horizons. and he's created literally tens of thousands of jobs. [applause] the obama administration has not created one new net job in the three-and-a-half years that they've -- or the three years that he's been in office. and so they're worried about this, and so what they're going to try to do is put the free enterprise system on trial and to say that, you know, sometimes in the free enterprise system jobs come, jobs go.

martha: yeah. >> as governor romney would say. martha: do you ever feel like he should embrace the work he did at bain more? some people feel in a way he has evaded it to some extent and that he might say, look, i would also want to cut the size of the federal government just as we cut certain companies that were weak and that sort of needed to go in favor of growing other companies. >> well, you know, one of the things that, you know, governor romney's believed in, it is a tragedy when anyone loses a job and feels, you know, it's one of the reasons why he's running for president. because he knows how to turn the economy around. and one of the pieces, one of the ways that we need to turn this economy around is by cutting spending. and that's something that governor romney's going to be very comfortable doing. he has a simple test on this, that is any program that we're paying for, is it worth borrowing money from china in order to pay for it? and that's the test that he's going to apply to a lot of programs when he's in the oval office. martha: yeah, this might seem like a silly question, but is it

better to win iowa or come in second in iowa? >> oh, it's always better -- martha: it's always better to win, right? >> always better to win. but our strategy has been, has been very consistent all along. our strategy is to win the nomination. and our strategy is not predicated on winning any one particular state, but it's getting to 1143 delegates by the end of the process. and if we win iowa, great. if we come in well in iowa, we place well, just as good. we're going to go on to new hampshire. i think we're the only campaign that has the organization, the resources and the ability to really play in every -- martha: well, you know, who knows what's going to happen. a lot can happen in iowa. i want to play a sound bite of chris christie on the ground for you folks on friday, and i want to ask you a question about that. let's play it. >> sure. >> he's going to do really well, i know that. certainly from new jersey, i'm not going to come to iowa and predict, but let's say this,

he's the best person for president, and that's the real question. i mean, who cares in the end if you're checking off every box and you win every contest? what these crowds indicate to me is that iowa's starting to figure out that mitt romney is the best bay to take on barack obama in november. that's what they care about the most. martha: these two guys are looking very close on friday afternoon in iowa. are we looking at a ticket here if mitt romney gets the nomination, russ? >> oh, it's way, way too early to kind of even think about that, martha. we haven't even started voting in iowa yet, and i think there'll be plenty of time to talk about and speculate -- martha: but it's been said that their relationship is somewhat unprecedented this early on, to have these two folks making these appearances together. >> they have a very good, they have a very close relationship, and they truly like one another a lot. martha: all right. well, we will see. we'll talk about that in the days to come perhaps. russ, thank you very much for joining us from iowa this morning.

bill: straight to the point. what was the phrase he used? martha: he said he was going to getjersey on them. bill: telling ya. one thing romney talks about all the time is the nation's economic health. he feels that is truly an advantage in his favor. iowa voters say it is certainly one of their top issues despite a state where unemployment is well below the national average. the impact the jobs issue will have on this 2012 race. >> if we can find somebody who can do just exactly what my family's doing, and that is to control their spending, live within your means, that's what we're going to be looking for. [ male announcer ] cranberry juice? wake up! ♪

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parr march well, iran has been ratcheting up tensions with the west. the rogue nation's navy saying that it test fired a cruise

missile in international waters near the straits of hormuz that is a vital oil export route, of course, and iran has threatened to shut it down just days ago which would be hugely disrupt i have, of course. iran coming out on the campaign trail as well. here's rick santorum on this. listen. >> it would be working openly with the state of israel, and i would be saying to the iranians you either open up those facilities, you begin to dismantle them and make them available to inspectors, or we will degrade those facilities through air strikes and make it very public we're doing that. martha: interesting. so later k.t. mcfarlane will join us and talk about what she makes of this latest saber rattling coming from iran, and this is forcing a big question, could this be hurting ron paul given some of his takes on iran? bill: also an amish community now pushing back against law enforcement. a district attorney is requiring those amish to put safety signs on their horse-drawn buggies

because the da says they tie up traffic in the state of kentucky. eight men have been arrested for refusing to do so, and douglas kennedy has been on the source looking at this. >> reporter: hey, bill. yeah, the amish reject all technology and most progress. now, some in kentucky are rejecting them and their buggies. for many an amish buggy conjures thoughts of a simpler time, far from the angst of the modern world 6789 but to some residents in mayfield, kentucky, they're just annoying. >> i almost hit one coming home from work. >> you never know who's coming or going. they're tearing up the roads with the steel wheels. >> reporter: you don't like to see these buggies on the road. >> no, not without the orange emblem, absolutely not. >> reporter: fred is a state rep from mayfield, a town with a large population of a strict amish sect who live life like it's the early 20th century,

stopping time in 1913. unfortunately, according to the representative, they're also stopping traffic, and he wallets all the amish around here to put these brightly-colored orange triangle on the backs of their horse-drawn buggies. >> it's a worldly symbol. its fluorescent orange and red color is contrary to their extravagant displays of color. >> reporter: bill sharp is an attorney with the american civil liberties union which now represents eight amish men who were arrested for refusing to comply. >> they are willing and do, in fact, use alternative safety measures that are equally effective at improvingproving te buggy's roadway visibility and maintaining safety. >> reporter: now, the amish say they will put this reflective tape on their buggies, but they can't use the orange triangle because it's against their religion. what do you say to that? >> i think the reflective tape does not reflect as much as they want to indicate that they do.

>> reporter: he says even if it doesn't sit with their lifestyle, the orange triangle is simply more visible and, thus, much safer. that's it from here, bill, back to you. bill: there are other amish communities who already do, so we'll see where this story goes. douglas, thank you. martha, what's next? martha: this is an incredible story, and true heros are involved in this rescue from an icy river. strangers jumping in the water to save three children who they feared already might be gone when they jumped into the water. amazing pictures, incredible quotes from the people who were involved in this and how they survived. bill: cold looking at it, isn't it? plus, voters across america and especially in iowa say they've got one thing on their minds, and that's the economy and jobs. so who has the best pitch when healing america's economy? >> they want to know about jobs. everybody is happier when everybody's employed and working, and it gets right down to it, jobs is the key. [ female announcer ] water was meant to be perfect.

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martha: boy, these guys must be exhausted, right? they are out on the trail, this is newt gingrich. we saw him all day yesterday, meeting with voters right now in independence, iowa. it's kind of breaking up, it's a streaming video. we're going to bring you all the bottoms at that -- developments at that stop. all hands are on deck for the gop candidates heading into tomorrow night's caucuses, trying to get as much face time with all of the voters as they possibly can. what a haul this has been. shannon bream is in des moines, iowa. she's looking a little toasty. there, she's outside. it's a little bit cold. how you doing, shannon? how's it going out there? >> reporter: it is good. you know what, martha? right now you cannot turn on a radio or a television set, as you would imagine here, without being bombarded on the airwaves by all of these last minute ads from the candidates. today we've got a brand new one from congresswoman michele

bachmann. she hasn't had a new ad in iowa for a while. this one emphasizes her roots as somebody who was born in iowa, it talks about how she's the best person to go head to head with president obama. that's her last pitch to the potential voters here gearing up for the caucuses tomorrow night. we've also seen a new ad today from ron paul, but this one is looking ahead. he's feeling good about how he's going to do in iowa, so this new ad for him is airing in the new hampshire. that's where everyone will head, principlively, after tomorrow. we'll see be the field is win knowed down, but the ads are in full force, as you could imagine, martha. martha: very interesting. so another candidate who keeps telling everybody he's going to have a beggar day than anybody thinks is the texas governor, rick perry. he's been fighting back against accusations that his campaign's having trouble. what's the latest from their camp? >> reporter: yeah, he's responding to a story that talks about in-fighting within the campaign, different camps within the campaign, and someone is quoted unidentified as saying,

basically, one of the most inept presidential campaigns they've ever seen. he says he doesn't give credence to sources that aren't named. here's a bit of his response from this morning. all right. well, in that sound bite what he had to say this morning was, basically, it's an inside beltway story, and if people aren't going to put their names on these statements, he's not going to give it any credence. by the way, whether he's your pick for president or not, the guy is texas tough because he told us he's been out jogging in this weather. we can barely make it bundled head to toe, but he said he likes it, it's invigorating, and he is ready to meet these voters one by one. martha? martha: and carl on has some earmuffs you can borrow, shannon. we just saw him. >> reporter: will do. martha: thank you, shannon, great to see you. bill: doing a great job. martha: i love that shot of rick and anita perry showing up and ringing somebody's doorbell.

bill: i always gauge, um, whether or not a candidate still has his or her voice in the closing days, and so far it seems like everybody can still talk. martha: a lot of hot tea and lemon and honey is needed. bill: brand new rasmussen polling saying that republicans have the edge in november. 47% of likely voters expect the eventual republican nominee to win in november, 39% think president obama will be awarded with a second term. what does scott rasmussen think about that? he works rasmussen reports.com, and, scott, good morning to you and happy new year to you. what did you find in this poll? >> first of all, what this tells us is republicans are a bit more confident about 2012 than democrats, 75% think the republican nominee will eventually win. only 67% of democrats are that upbeat. this is consistent, also, with data showing that republicans are more enthusiastic about it. but still a long way to november. republicans are much more upbeat

about control of congress than the white house by a two to one margin. it's expected the republicans will retain control of the white house. and the plurality, 48%, say, well, we think the republicans will get the senate too. bill: all right. so when you measure the enthusiasm gap, what does that tell you as a pollster, scott? >> the enthusiasm gap talks an awful lot about the type of activity and support you'll be able to get out during the campaign season. in a presidential year, it's not so much about who will show up and vote. you know, in november 2010 we said enthusiasm mattered in terms of getting out to the polls. well, in 2012 people are going to show up and vote, but that enthusiasm, that excitement to participate and to be involved in the campaign gives an edge and a vibrancy to the candidate -- bill: and it tells us a lot about where voters are too. i think your information is fascinating. now, we also picked up two polls from over the weekend, this is from the newspaper in des moines, "the des moines register". right now 24% for romney, ron

paul at 22 -- that's within the margin of error -- santorum seems to be picking up all this steam now with 15%. what does this tell you based on the information you've gathered? >> well, those numbers are just about the same as our final poll from last week. we've done three polls in a row with romney and ron paul at the top, but caucus polling is tough. things can change even in the caucus meeting room. what it tells me is mitt romney is perhaps a slight favorite to win, but he's likely to finish in the top two. ron paul and rick santorum both likely and both will be expected to finish in the top three. newt gingrich and rick perry, well, they're fighting to be in the number three, four or five slot. bill: i see. one other thing from the des moines register, 41% could still change their mind? we talked to a gentleman last hour from iowa, he says it's never been this way. why is it this way, scott? >> because republican caucus goers are looking for two things. first, they want somebody who they are confident can beat barack obama, back to the first

question we talked about. second, they want somebody who will bring about the kind of policy and change that they're hoping for after they win the white house, and they haven't found a perfect combination. this doesn't say that 41% of iowa caucus goers are looking at a list of seven candidates and saying i don't know what i'm going to do, it tells us that someone might say, for example, i kind of like newt gingrich, but i think romney has a better chance of beating him, so i'm leaning to romney, but i could go back. other trade-offs that people are making. bill: and those are the last second decisions that some will make. thank you, scott. talk to you real soon. >> have a happy new year. bill: and to you. martha: some of what those folks may be thinking about, of course s the economy and how much of a role that will play in their critical decisions they make at the caucuses tomorrow night. the hawkeye state has a 5.7 unemployment rate, so that's ooh substantially lower than the nation's 8.6 rate, but here's what some iowans had to say about jobs and about 2012. listen. >> they want to know about jobs.

everybody is happier when everybody's employed and working, and it gets right down to it, jobs is the king. >> somebody who can do just exactly what, um, my family's doing, and that is to control their spending, live within your means. that's what we're going to be looking for. martha: really interesting words from the voters on the ground. doug holtz-eakin was director of economic policy for john mccain's campaign, so he's got a great handle on what's going on in the economy. doug, good morning. good to see you. >> good morning. martha: you know, it's interesting, iowa has always been known for people who care a lot about family values, that's been one of the focuses in the past. it sounds like that has translated a bit for them this time around and even though they're not hurting as much as some states are, they want somebody who's convincing them that they are fiscally tough. >> well, i think every candidate who's running around iowa right now is looking forward to the general election where everyone expects it to be a referendum on president obama's handling of

the economy and where they have a significant difference of opinion with the president. and so as a group they're not going to go within a country mile of the kinds of things that president obama's done or has proposed, and they're convincing iowans they can be that person who is fiscally tough, who is dedicate today a small private sector and who can create jobs. martha: you know, iowa is a swing state. it's supposed to be one of the, you know, kind of go-to states in terms of how the general election fares. now, president obama can go to iowa and say, look, growth is ticking up a little bit, he can talk about the unemployment numbers. how do you think the picture's going to present itself? because some people think that even an incremental gain or a light at the end of the tunnel could be enough in the general for folks in iowa. >> well, certainly the president's going to be pointing toward recent success. everyone anticipates the economy will continue to recover, and he's going to point to that and say, see, it's working. the republican nominee is going to look at the same picture and say, wait, we've been at this for four years and that's all

we've got? and they're going to point to a protracted message of failure. that's going to be the battle right down to 2012. i think the president has three significant challenges. even those who think the economy's going to get better expect it to be slow and modest. and the supreme court's going to make a decision on the obama health care reform in june of 2012, and it's going to remind every voter that he spent 15 months doing that and not taking care of jobs. and then lastly, he's got a referendum. so they're going to look back, not forward, and he's got to try to change that. martha: all right. you're right. i think that's the central issue, is the perception of how things are going and what direction we're heading in at that election time. doug holtz-eakin, we'll be talking to you many times, thank you, sir. happy new year and have a good day. bill: a show of force by iran, test firing a new missile near the strait of hormuz, and that is where oil is transported. what are the consequences now of this action? welcome idaho, where they grow america's favorite potoes.

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>> [inaudible] >> i feel romney-boated. >> speaker gingrich announced he'd raised $10 million this quarter, and he ought to be proud of that. we're working hard to raise funds as well, and this is an election, however, that's not being driven by money raised, it's being driven by message, connection with the voters, debates, experience, and i think, i think those are the features that are driving the campaign so far. martha: so joining me now live is kirsten powers, a columnist for the daily beast and a fox news contributor, and former white house political director for george w. bush, matt schlapp. key ten's in iowa, what's the feel for it, kirsten? does it feel like it's getting nasty? >> well, look, you definitely see some of the lower-tier candidates lashing out. i think gingrich is getting angry because he, as we know, had a major lead, and he's imploded, and he's now in the lower tier of candidates. um, rick perry has been making

some attacks, but the people who are on the top tier are generally, you know, not doing that because it's not in their interest, and even michele bachmann also who's in the lower tier who's really been dropping off has been making some attacks because, you know, you always punch up, and you try to, you know, pull the person down who's ahead of you. martha: sure. matt, the person who's had the biggest surge lately is rick santorum, so now we're starting to see what's coming out against him,, and it seems like the main argument are the earmarks he pushed for as a senator of pennsylvania. >> you know you're doing well in a race when you start to get attacked. he spent a year in iowa going to all 99 counties having 300-some events, and he wanted someone to attack him. and here the day before the caucuses he's being taken seriously, and if you look at the polling that's come out from various sources in the last couple of days, he's actually, arguably, in the lead.

so people should take him seriously, and i think the fact that he spent time in washington, it's a fair thing for his opponents to bring up, and he's going to have to have good answers. martha: yeah. it's interesting, kirsten, when you look at newt gingrich's campaign, he had a tremendous surge, and he has fallen back. you called it imploded a moment ago, and it sounds like what he's counting on now is south carolina and florida, he's going to see how he does in the first two states and bet on a comeback there. but we also know from history, you know, a lot of times those states start to take their cues a little bit from what happens in new hampshire. >> yeah. well, yeah, that's a difficult strategy because whoever gets a bump out of iowa has been going with more momentum into new hampshire and then more momentum into south carolina. so it's a risky strategy. basically, what gingrich has been trying to do, what the campaign's been trying to do is convince people that if he comes in fourth, that's still a respectable finish and that would propel him in a way that john mccain, you know, tied

for fourth last time. but i think that that's going to be a tough sell because he was at the top of the pack, and then he dropped. and it's not clear that he's even going to come in a close fourth. martha: there's three tickets out of iowa, and if he wants the fourth one, we'll see if he can sort of change the game. quick question for you, matt, with regards to ron paul because all of what's been going on in this iran over the weekend is really bad timing for him since he has had some trouble with that issue, and they're coming after him on that. >> yeah, i think there's no question there's a libertarian element in the republican primary process. but, and on economic issues he really strikes chords with folks on government spending, but when they see his foreign policy up close and personal, the idea that there'd be a hands-off attitude to iran having a nuclear weapon or that israel could be wiped off the face of the earth, it makes people skittish, even voters in iowa who tend to have a little more of a keep america home attitude.

so there's no question it's bad timing. martha: it makes it fascinating, because you can never control what's going on in the rest of the world, and it does impact people's perceptions. matt and kirsten, thank you. bill: kirsten's inside. martha: she is. she's warm and toasty. bill: jon scott standing by, "happening now" standing by. happy new year to you. it's going to be an amazing 2012. jon: it is going to be a wild one, bill, good morning to you. the first voting of the 2012 election starts tomorrow night. we have carl cameron, steve brown, john roberts, wendell goler and shannon bream on the campaign trail. we'll talk with steve king, juan williams, chris stirewalt, rich lowry and alan colmes as we count down to the iowa caucuses. plus, those new missile tests from iran after it threatens to shut down the strait of hormuz. what's really behind rapp's aggressive -- iran's increasingly aggressive

behavior? we'll see you in just a few minutes, "happening now." bill: see you in ten minutes. all right, a family trapped in an icy river. how a group of quick-thinking bystanders rushed to their aid. we have the dramatic rescue in a moment, and we have one of the russ key you ares -- rescuers with us lye to explain how thiss happened.e pr there , [ thinking ] i wonder what other questionable choices i've made? [ '80s dance music plays ] [ sighs ] [ male announcer ] choose taste. choose prego.

martha: this is an incredible story, a utah man ask and his three children escaped certain death thanks to the bravery of good samaritans. the driver lost control in icy conditions, the car went into the river upside down at one point, but in seconds a team of onlookers had rushed to their aid. joining us now on the phone from utah is chris, one of the men who help inside this rescue. chris, congratulations. what an amazing job you did of saving this family's -- tell us

what you did. >> thanks, martha. what transpired from our perspective is when we came around the corner in the logan canyon, we saw the white mini van up on top of the bridge, we looked underneath, and we could see there was a vehicle in the river upside down. there were some ladies running towards us screaming about kids, so i jumped out of my dad's vehicle, jumped into the river, and the only person in the river at the time was the children's father. shortly thereafter, my dad also jumped in the river, i started feeling around on the glass to see if any of the windows were broken out. i tried pulling on the doors, none of the doors would open up. i pulled my handgun out and shot out one of the back windows so i could try and go around for arms or legs or clothing and pull somebody out. we weren't able to. when i turned around, that's when there were six or eight other guys just coming out of the woodwork. they all jumped down into the

water, we started lifting up on the vehicle. i saw one little girl in the backseat, she was looking at me, she had apparently been upside down in the water. i told her to get out of the vehicle, she stated she couldn't because of the car seat. i cut the seat belt off, pulled her out, i saw another little girl floating in the water upside down, and she was just as gray and blue as could be. my dad grabbed on to her, started pulling her out, someone else took her from him. all of us lifted up the vehicle a little bit more, and that's when we found the 4-year-old little boy upside down still strapped into his car seat. martha: i know you guys were thinking that you were going to see the worst, and you could have if you had been just a minute later. so congratulations to you. i'm sure this family and all their friends are forever grateful for what you all did. very heroic deed. thank you, chris, and thanks to all of the folks who pitched in and saved this family. happy new year, sir. [laughter] >> thanks, you too.

martha: all right, you take care. what a story. my goodness. bill: so new threats out of iran, the country successfully test fire what's described as two long-range missiles. the show of force comes at the end of military exercises near the strait of hormuz, a lifeline for the world's oil. k.t. mcfarlane, fox news national security analyst, here to analyze this. k.t., good morning to you. i think there are two big issues on the table here. one's the nuclear issue that we'll address in a moment, but what about this missile test? >> what iran is showing you is that it's got -- what it want toss show you is it has the ability to seal off the strait of hormuz. so they've tested a missile, they've got the naval exercise going on right now, and they've made statements that we can close off the strait of hormuz anytime we feel like it, and what that does is closes off the most vital waterway, the most vital transit point for all the world's oil. it's not an empty threat. they could do it. they just can't do it for long because the u.s. fifth fleet

will come and open the strait right away. bill: and that might be a minor issue because you say now with this new year of 2012 that the year of reckoning with iran has begun. explain. >> yes. okay. this is the year of reckoning. a year from now either iran will be a nuclear weapons state -- even our secretary of defense has said that -- or we, the west, will have found a way to stop iran either by bombing those nuclear sites in iran or by choking off their economy. and that's what's happened in the last three days. president obama signed into legislation, into law legislation that's going to put a blockade around iran's oil sector. not a blockade with ships, but a blockade with banks. britain did it a couple weeks ago, the european union's set to do the same thing. what that will do will prevent iran's oil from reaching the market. already in the last 24 hours the iranian economy has started teetering. there's been massive inflation just in the last couple of days

because the iranians are worried that their oil can't make it to market. their economy could well collapse. so we're coming up to the point of decision and the point of crisis. and it's either going to go one way or the other. bill: listen, we're going to keep you real close to make sure you take us through it so we understand each step of the way. thanks, k.t., and happy new year to you. k.t. mcfarlane. martha: k.t. makes a major point, and we may hear the candidates talking about iran a lot more. here's one of them, rick santorum, meeting with voters right now in polk county, iowa. we're going to bring you all the latest developments as these candidates are hoping to make contact, to shake hands, to look in people's eyes one last time and make a difference. we'll be right back. toothpaste is the wrong thing to use on a denture,

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bill: great story to end on here. a dream come true for a young cancer patient. doctors told blake appleton he had six months to live. blake spent the day meeting his are hero, denver quarterback tim tebow at the game in denver on sunday. check this out. >> blake? how are you doing, buddy. >> can you sign this. >> sure. bill: tebow heard about the boy and called him a month ago said he would like to meet him. they met up on sunday in denver. there is a picture of this young man in the hospital doing the tebow. he tweeted out his story and tebow picked up on it. martha:. martha: