jon: he is truly happy. martha: good job, tim tebow. see you tomorrow then. bill: don't go anywhere. see you tomorrow. bye-bye. jenna: i don't know if they set us up any better, jon. little tim tebow, a little politics. jon: that's right. jenna: thank you, bill and martha. hi, everybody, i'm jenna lee. jon: unfortunately tebow couldn't pull it off last night but we go on. i'm jon scott from the fox newsroom. "happening now", count down to one day away to the first contest in the presidential campaign. all candidates except jon huntsman are fanning out in that state. mitt romney is campaigning hard and so far it seems to pay off. jenna: we'll see. romney leading in the "real

clear politics" average of iowa polls with nearly 23%. ron paul a close second with more than 21%. and a surging rick santorum, this is really been the big story over the weekend taking a number three spot. newt gingrich and rick perry round out the top five. jon: mitt romney has to get past his gop rivals first he is looking ahead to the general election. >> believe in that wonderful hymn "america the beautiful", and that stands is that says oh beautiful for patriot dream that sees beyond the years. this is not about their time they were writing our declaration and our constitution, it was about their time. this merit society, this opportunity nation, this free nation continues to be a beacon to the world and a shining city on a hill. i look today at our president, i don't think he understands that america. jon: john roberts is following the romney campaign in dubuque, iowa. it is our quick response vehicle he is riding in

right now. what is governor romney up to today, john? >> reporter: good morning, to you, jon. we're on the road. we'll take a shot of our front camera and look at that beautiful iowa landscape. on the road between davenport where romney just appeared and dubuque which is his next stop. he is been hitting the western side of the state and now the eastern side of the state in the final hours before the caucuses. these were areas good to him in 2008 and he is trying to make sure he gets as many people out to caucus for him on tuesday as he possibly can. in 100 people in davenport. there was lot of room. he appealed to come out and vote with good old-fashioned values, reminding people after time when their biggest worry going into the weekend what movie they would take their kids to go to see as opposed to will they have enough food to put on the table to last the weekend. he looks toward november hitting president obama on what he calls broken promises from his campaign in iowa in 2008.

here is mitt romney. >> i've been watching some clips of president obama, then candidate obama, when he was going across iowa four years ago and the promises just why nonstop. of all the great things he was going to do. heal the nation. bring us together. repair the nation and repair the world. i mean the list was extraordinary. i haven't seen such a big gap between promises and performance in a long, long time. >> reporter: yeah, he up the ante on that one yesterday trying to get a laugh line in council bluffs, iowa, i haven't seen that that many broken promises or lack after vow than the kim card ard wedding, jon. jon: they have a final pitch they make to iowa voters. what is governor romney saying? >> basically romney is saying i'm the most electable of all the candidates. i'm best positioned to go up against president obama in november. iowa voters would agree. in a new "des moines register" poll found him the

most electable. at the same time he was the one least able to connect with iowa voters there is a little bit of disconnect that may affect him. his ceiling here, in 2008 was 25%. has to do a couple things. try to get more of the fiscal conservatives out to vote for him at caucus night or try to peel off some of the social conservatives who really don't trust him. they're leaning toward rick santorum, rick perry or michele bachmann. there is thing that, pocket here if mitt romney pulls off a win in iowa and goes on to win new hampshire he would be the first republican candidate ever to do that. a lot of people are saying, jon that could give him the momentum for the rest of the primaries that could be virtually unstopable. >> john roberts rolling along the highways of iowa there in our quick response vehicle. john, thank you. jenna: we weren't making john roberts drive at the same time? jon: no. jenna: you could tell he was in the passenger seat. just checking. we showed you an average of iowa polls. check out the latest

"des moines register" poll which is often considered a bellwether for the caucuses outcome. shows a three-way matchup. mitt romney followed closely by ron paul and rick santorum. all there right next to each other when you factor in the margin of error plus or minus four percentage points it is really a very, very tight race. doug high, senior advisor to the iowa gop and he is joining us now. doug, let's take a more broad perspective if you can, taking a look at iowa and what it means for the general election ahead. what do you see in the iowa race that you're going to be watching for when we move towards the general election for the gop? >> ultimately this is all about the general election. we don't look at this as the finals of anything. this is the beginning of the process. really almost like the first game of march madness. we're really seeing iowa voters, iowa caucus-goers trying to determine who they think that candidate is going to best face against barack obama. that's what you're seeing candidates talk about on the stump. why you're seeing them

really make as jon mentioned that closing argument that comes down to organization. we'll see how that pays off tomorrow night. jenna: doug, you worked with a lot of gop leaders in various rolls really focusing on their communication and i'm curious in your mind, in your opinion, what is the message that is resonating most of all? we continue to hear we want to defeat barack obama from all of these candidates but what is the message that is really resonating in iowa? >> all the may -- ultimately talking about how we'll turn the economy around. the economy in iowa is better than most states with the commodity prices. candidates are talking about that a lot. they're talking about jobs the economy. they're talking about debts deficits and spending. what we saw voters focus on when democrats got a shellacking in 2010. we heap that women be case in 2012 as well. jenna: everyone says this is very fluid race. we have obviously seen a lot

of candidates switch positions in the lead to the back of the race. what has been the most surprising thing to you, watching caucuses and watching process up to the caucuses tomorrow night? >> i think the most surprising thing is that large number of undecided voters. what we're seeing that winnow down and get smaller every day as the candidates go to make the closing arguments tomorrow night at 7:00 p.m. central time here in iowa that is where the organization will pay off. what i mean by that. we have 1774 precincts. at each of those candidates will have representatives or hopefully have representatives making the case directly to caucus-goers. those who have the strongest organizations those with the people in that room are those that will make the closing argument. i will say one thing about the iowa republican party when it comes to organization we have in the iowa under leadership of state party chairman, matt strong, 33 consecutive months since barack obama elected gop registration

gains over democrats. the democrats are in tatters. since barack obama was elected in 2008, one in 10 democrats fled the party. jenna: do you think that will translate into high turnout though? we continue to see nearly half of those participating in the caucuses are still undecided? when you're undecided styles you don't feel necessarily motivated. i'm curious when you think turnout will be like? >> it is hard to predict a number. we expect it will be strong and robust especially with the registration gains we've had over democrats but our vote remembers excited. they're excited to replace barack obama. i've been throughout this state and everywhere i go. i've seen voters who are undecided say maybe i support this candidate. maybe i don't know which way to go but i will be there and vote because we have to replace barack obama and that is ultimately a general election message. jenna: that makes next 24 hours very critical doug. >> happy new year. jenna: happy new year to you and all of iowa as well. we'll watch very closely obviously. fox is your election

headquarters. we have correspondents across the state. we're live with wall-to-wall coverage beginning 6:00 p.m. eastern time. be right here with all the twists and turns. what is any sort of precedent, jon, it will be kind of a wild ride. jon: 41% undecided anything could happen, really. president obama in the meantime, the guy that all of those candidates are trying to unseat, signing the defense authorization act into law over the weekend. it allows the u.s. government to lock up terror suspects indefinitely without trial. it also prevents the closure of prison facility at guantanamo bay. many of its most adamant critics are some of the president's strongest supporters. chief intelligence correspondent catherine herridge live for us in washington right now. how strong are the objections from the president's core supporters on the left here,. >> reporter: thank you, jon. good morning. the head of aclu said in scathing statement that mr. obama's decision to sign onto the provisions would tarnish his legacy as

president. quote, president obama's action is blight on his presidency. from a leading muslim rights group, quote, this ill-conceived and un-american legislation will forever be seen as a stain on our nation's history one that will ultimately be viewed with embarassment and shame. a leading national security lawyer who defended one of the 9/11 suspects at guantanamo said the new powers are sweeping. >> the idea that the president would sign a bill which gives him the right to indefinitely detain american citizens and potentially take them to guantanamo should be shocking to any american who thinks that we have a bill of rights. that we have a constitution and that it means anything. >> reporter: human rights watch says it plan as formal letter of complaint to the white house as early as next week, jon. jon: what does the white house have to say about all this? >> reporter: as recently as mid-december white house spokesman said a veto was still a strong possibility.

but on new year's eve the white house posted a lengthy three-page statement to justify the president's decision to sign the act containing the controversial provisions t reads in part, quote my administration will interpret and implement the provisions in a manner that bests preserves the flexibility on which our safety depends and upholds the values which this country was found and this issue will come to a head next week when we mark the 10th anniversary of establishment of detention camps at guantanamo bay. jon: catherine herridge, interesting developments out of washington. >> reporter: for sure. jon: thank you. >> reporter: you're welcome. jenna: big develop months out of iran toes firing new long-range missiles the country reaching a new milestone for its long-range missile program. what this means for the region and what it means for our national security. we'll take a close look coming up. jon: california burning. almost a dozen more suspected arson fires breaking out overnight. there is a big break in the case. jenna: hopefully that is the break. we'll see when we talk to a

member of the los angeles fire department. the ever-changing frontrunner in the gop race for the white house. the candidate in the lead switched some seven times. it has been a game of musical chairs. what it means for iowa and the general election coming up. my name is robin.

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jenna: "happening now" in polk city, iowa. senator santorum at the rising sun cafe in polk city. there was a such a crowd people are lined up outside unable to get in the cafe. he is the one flirting with the lead in iowa. next 24 to 36 hours will be crucial for him as well as the other candidates. we'll keep up with them as they travel across the state today. jon: the rise of rick santorum is just another element that proves this gop race for the white house is one for the history books. the frontrunner changing a staggering seven times. and the top polling firm, gallup, even calls it, the most volatile republican nomination contest since it first started tracking front-runners decades ago. congressman steve king, a republican from iowa joins us now. congressman king, you have not announced a favorite on the gop side in iowa. would you like to announce one now? >> i wish i were ready to do

that, jon. i believed i would be. i thought september, october would be a good time. i have to come to a conviction and i said on my head and heart come together i will jump in with both feet. i'm in conformance with about 40% or so of iowans who at this point either not solidly behind someone or still undecided and at this point i'm not ready. jon: i was about to say you're part of that 41% still yet to be persuaded. what can persuade you? what are you looking for? >> well, jim demint and i wrote an op-ed in "the des moines register" a couple days ago that lays out some of those parameters. which presidential candidate can articulate the depth of the financial problem we're in and pull us back from the abyss from that financial calamity just impending around the corner. that is part of it. we're hearing better language. who can paint the picture for the destiny of america. i've been a person who long supported the fair tax.

it is not in the debate in this presidential debate. that is one thing that transforms the economy. takes all tax off production and stops punishing producers and job creators and puts it on the consumption side. we can't get it into the debate. that is one thing that restrains. if i had one candidate that lace it out like mike huckabee four years ago that would make it a lot easier. jon: ron paul talks about reducing the federal deficit, reducing federal outlays all together. what do you think about ron paul? >> i like things ron paul brings to the table. his sound money. he made the case very consistently bring the federal government to just the constitutional principles defined in the constitution. the foreign policy of ron paul kerns me a great deal. as i heard him say in columbia, south carolina when i asked where would you project power, his answer was nowhere. i would bring all back to the united states. i think that would create a

power vacuum on this planet filled by the chinese, russians, hugo chavez, ahmadinejad. i think eventually the united states would be surrounded by its enemies. i don't think you can undo that. i'm very concerned about that kind of a proposal for our foreign policy and for our military. jon: we talked about the story leading into your introduction about the fact that the republican lead has changed hands seven times since may according to gallup. you yourself know a lot of these players personally, probably all of them and yet you haven't made up your mind. i mean what is it that makes this thing so fluid? >> well, it's been, i don't know that anyone else is characterized this as simplest way, and i think it is this way. it has been a contest of king of the hill. whoever arrived on top of the hi was pulled off by the others and someone tried to climb the hill. no one could hold it for very long. mitt romney might be the exception. he seemed to hang around the summit but not really claim the hill. now according to "the des moines register" poll, he is

at the top of the hill and seeking to hold it. rick santorum is going his first time to the summit. whether he gets there before the caucus or not or by the time of the caucus is the question. the question about that does rick santorum catch up with mitt romney? that is a tossup at this point. the other component is, does ron paul hold the top three or does someone else break into that top three? i don't know the answers to that but this is an exhilarating race going on here in iowa and i expect a large turnout even though there are undecided. and a component that's not discussed very much is how much the speeches that are given on behalf of the candidates will matter to those 41% undecided tomorrow night. if say, rick santorum has 1774 good representatives to speak on his behalf he will have a great night. if mitt romney has that, he will have a great night. if somebody like newt gingrich or michele bachmann or rick perry has that, they will have a surprise coming for us here in iowa. jon: that's what make the

iowa caucuses so interesting. steve king is a congressman and something of a political power force there in iowa. thank you, congressman. >> thank you, jon. jenna: the congressman mentioned the importance of foreign policy and that is something we'll be talking about next. there are some new threats from iran today. the country test firing some long-range missiles. what this means for us about stability in the middle east. we have a lot to talk about with iran. we'll do that next. marching to the beat of a different drummer. occupy protesters planning to demonstrate at the famed rose parade in pasadena, california. we have a live report from the parade coming up. ♪ . . rth of fiber in every ...

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jon: iran flexes its military muscle successfully test firing three long-range missiles. the launch comes at the climax of 10 days of war games near the strait of hormuz. that is a key transit point for most of the world's oil shipments or at least much of it. all this as iranian state television report as major milestone for the country's nuclear program. scientists there claim they have produced their first nuclear fuel rods. national security correspondent jennifer griffin is live in washington taking a look at all of this. jennifer? >> reporter: jon, tomorrow is the last day of those 10 days of war games being carried out by iran's revolutionary guard and the navy. they have been taking place in the strait of hormuz. today iran tested a surface-to-surface cruise missile said its navy chief said proved that iran could completely control the vital

strait where 1/6 of the world's oil passes it. could threaten navy ship in the region. it is name means capable of farsi. this cruise missile has a range of 124 miles. the u.s. navy fifth fleet is based in bahrain which is 150 miles from iranian shores. the missile was tested as part of these navy drills which one member of parliament in iran was designed to practice taking control of the strait of hormuz which the u.s. would consider an ability of war. the missile was added to iran's arsenal in see. according to iranian navy spokesman it has been upgraded in materials of radar and satellite communications and has according to the iranians a radar-evading mechanism. a total of four missiles were launched by iran today but they were not the longer range missiles that could hit is rails. all this sabre rattling comes one day after the iranians surprised the west announcing they had moved further along in their

nuclear program claiming to have perfect ad nuclear fuel rod needed for uranium enrichment. at the same time iran asked to resume talks with the united nations about its nuclear program. all this are signs that they are worried about looming sanctions that could target their oil exports, jon. jon: jennifer griffin in washington for us. thank you, jennifer. jenna: a lot to think about there. we'll talk more about this with michael zinc, former director of middle eastern affairs and director of washington institute for nearest policy. michael, good to have you again. >> hi, jenna. jenna: in the past you called these activities, firing of missile, gamesmanship saying they lack credibility s that the case here? >> well it may well be, jenna. this is the same country that has been shown to use photoshop to enhance its military accomplishments. and so we should view all of this with a little bit of a grain of salt. i think it is gamesmanship on both the military and

political sides. it is exactly what your correspondent said. they're worried about new sanctions which have just been signed into law by president obama. as well as some new measures which the european union is considering to ban, to totally ban oil imports from iran. jenna: michael, sorry to interrupt, but the sanctions can be very difficult to understand because from the outside look in tough to quantify. you don't actually see the effect of sanctions before our eyes as the american viewing public. why are these recent sanctions, why do you think that these could be really be a game-changer here? >> well, there's no doubt, jenna, iran really depends on its oil exports. they get 70% of their budget revenue from oil exports and 50% of the their gdp. so we've stayed away from targeting oil in the past because of concerns about global oil prices but now, with everything else essentially not working to prevent iran from getting a nuclear weapon oil is very much on the table and that has got to worry the iranians. jenna: so that's on the

table now and the next thing to think about is something we also discussed which is a military option. here is what senator santorum had to say about iran yesterday. want to get your thoughts on this. >> i would say to the iranianses open up the facilitying and begin to dismantle them and available to inspectors or we will degrade the facilities through airstrikes and make it very public we're doing that. jenna: what do you think about that, michael? >> this is something not only senator santorum is saying i think you're hearing it more and more from other politicians and analyst who is say the only way to get irrein's attention to either target the oil or which we're doing now or make the military threat much more credible than it has been over the last three years. we may not need only a threat here but we may actually need to use the military option. i think this is something you will hear more this year 2012 as iran pursues its nuclear capability. jenna: what is the tipping point for that?

what is that event you see that the military option is reality? what we've seen and reporting in the news that we have gone and bombed their facilities this iran? >> there is very hard to say. different red lines are discussed. for example if iran were to transfer its uranium enrichment from the current above-ground facility to that mountain facility which would make it very much harder to strike. if they were to start moving their uranium around in ways that made it more difficult for ininspectors to track, there are very red lines and u.s. and israel may have different red lines, for example. but one thing i want to point out, jenna, if iran were to do something like close the strait of hormuz or attempt to close the strait of hormuz that would also perhaps serve as a red line. frankly once you're engaged with hostilities in iran would any u.s. president just stop short of just opening the straits or would they continue to destroy the nuclear infrastructure. jenna: if we don't do that, if some of these things happen and which don't turn to the military option then are we at risk of as senator

santorum said, being a paper tiger, not showing we're willing to get tough with iran? what is the risk of that? >> i think the risk, jenna, multiple u.s. presidents said we're determined to prevent iran from getting a nuclear weapon. if we turn aside from towards containment i think it diminishes our credibility around the world and especially toward the region. jenna: we always look to have you back continuing this conversation. thank you, sir, always nice to have you. >> thanks, jenna, and there is breaking news right now out of southern california. more arson fires in los angeles overnight. as investigators detain a person of interest in this case, do they have the right guy and what's the motive here? new information and video in a live report after the break. plus, the clock is ticking down to the iowa caucuses tomorrow. according to the polls it is still anyone's game. who's rising who's falling, what it all means in the gop race for the white house coming up.

jon: we have hundreds of satellite feeds coming into the acquisition center here at fox news channel from all over the country, all over the world. look on remote 291. there is a look at the weather picture across the country. mostly clear but a big patch of lake-effect snow up in the northeast changing weather systems for those of us in the northeast who had a pretty nice fall and early winter so far. look at l.a. some rain headed that way. what will that do to the rose parade? over here on remote 282 looks like blue skies right now at the rose parade but looks like maybe a bit of rain headed their way. maria molina will be along a bit later on with her foxcast. jenna. jenna: we have this fox news alert. major developments in southern california as a cereal arsonist strikes again. 11 more fires in the l.a. area adding to dozens of

fires set over the last week. investigators are reporting a break in the case. william la jeunesse reporting live in los angeles with the latest on this william? >> reporter: jenna, police arrested a person of interest between 3:00 and 4:00 this morning near hollywood in los angeles. he appears in his early 30s. he is white, receding hairline and a penny tail and he matches earlier surveillance individual taken near one of the arson fires that was set this weekend. and meets the description from several witnesses of a man seen fleeing from several fires. police also seized his van which appeared to have canadian plates and investigators have found inside that van materials consistent with arson according to "the l.a. times." they believe the suspect may be from germany. >> they're questioning him at this time to see what he was doing in the area, where he was going, checking to see that his stories match

up and then looking at what similarities his location was with the fires that occurred. >> reporter: now police have reportedly given this person of interest a nickname, meat loaf segal because he appears to be a singer meat loaf and actress sieve stren segal. jenna: first time i heard that. that will stick. tell us about the fireses have there been any casual at thises or injuries because of the fires that have been set? >> reporter: unbelievely no. many fires were set in cars or under the engine block and again no fatalities or injuries. police decline to say what evidence has tied these cases together, nor have they provided the ignition source or what type of timing device or accelerants may have been used in these. detectives are concerned releasing more information could prompt the arsonist to change tactics or encourage copycats.

one key is the traffic and surveillance cameras that apparently spotted this suspect near several of the fires. jenna, they do stress this might not be the only suspect because in some cases you have had a dozen fires in four hour period, different parts of town, making it difficult maybe to believe that one person was responsible but again then, the investigation is very early in its stages. jenna: still so many questions. we'll continue to look for those answers, william. thank you so much. jon: police nickname like that before. back to politics now. we're getting ready for the very first contest in the red hot presidential race. the iowa caucuses just a day away. which candidate is poised to come out on top? who is surging, who is sinking? what does it all mean for the rest of the gop race for the white house? with predictions for iowa and beyond we're joined by juan williams of "fox news poll" ticks analyst, and paul west, national political correspondent for the tribune's, tribune newspaper groups washington bureau.

paul to you first, there seems to be something of a rick santorum surge going on at least at polls. are you seeing that? >> sure. there has been a rick santorum surge going on for at least three days here in the context of this election seems more like three months some he is going to surge and the only question is, will it carry him to the top, second place or third place? that's what we're looking at here right now. jon: juan, it has been sort of a game of musical chairs so far except that the number of competitors has remained the same but, you know, somebody's up and then the chair gets pulled out from under them and then they drop. if this is in fact a rick santorum surge it could not be timed better, could it? >> for rick santorum it is the perfect time, jon. what you see here that he peaked at the point where it is very hard for him to have the experience of the intense scrutiny let's say a newt gingrich experienced when he climbed to the top of the tree and it was famously said you could see more of his problems as a result. of course then you saw

mitt romney's team absolutely aim their fire in terms of the negative ads that have just swamped airwaves here in iowa. but at the moment santorum has not been experiencing that. he is just experiencing the joy of being the candidate of the moment. jon: well, and paul, you know, as was seen earlier at least newt gingrich told us on friday and said it publicly before, he feels that he lost that top position in part because of the attack ads that were launched against his campaign as a result of his frontrunner status. >> that's right and santorum's getting a little bit of that treatment but nothing like what gingrich got. gingrich got week after week of heavy attacks on tv with negative ads. rick perry is going after santorum a little bit here on radio and tv, attacking him over earmarks he took when he was a senator from pennsylvania or earmarks that he requested but nothing like what gingrich to the. jon: juan, it is the most fluid primary ever on the gop side or at least going back to the 1960s.

why is it at this point? have the candidates not presented themselves to the electorate enough there in iowa? what makes it that 41% of the people after all the bombardments of television ads and meet and greets and so forth, why haven't they made up their minds? >> i think there is this level of discontent with the field, jon. i've written about this on foxnews.com. right now as you said 40% say in the caucuses tomorrow night they could be persuaded to change their mind. what you've been talking about, what paul has beening about we've seen different candidates of the moment. it has been the like the anti-mitt romney. the candidate was long time ago rick perry. when perry got into the field and fell off we've seen everybody try to fill the vacuum. for voters they're looking and looking to see who is the best candidate to defeat barack obama. but also looking, someone who could have some passion

represent their sense of discontent with the way the country's heading at the moment and they haven't settled on it. they haven't been able to find the vessel, the right vessel for that because the criticism has come in for everyone and as paul was just saying even now you're hearing a little trickle on santorum. still it is the santorum surge that is the talk of the town at this moment. jon: paul, is it possible that mitt romney could win this thing and if so, is he then almost unstopable? >> it is absolutely possible he could win it. if he did, given his position in new hampshire right now where he has got a big lead he could be the first republican who wasn't an incumbent president to win iowa and new hampshire back-to-back. it would be difficult to stop him. south carolina is still looming out there as is florida at the end of this month. it wouldn't be over but it would be a tremendous boost for romney if he were to win here. jon: lots, lots of coverage ahead in the next 36 hours or so.

thanks for being with us, paul west, juan williams. appreciate it. >> you're welcome, jon. jenna: the republican presidential candidates are getting plenty of attention in iowa and new hampshire. what most people don't know is that the president is also on the ballot in those states as well. why the obama campaign think that is the contests are important for the president too. we'll explain that. also new year and new additions we'll introduce you to some little ones born just after the stroke of midnight 2012. some brand new twins, jon, determined to have their own birthdays. we'll explain coming up. we'll explain coming up. ♪ . when bp made a commitment to the gulf, we knew it would take time, but we were determined to see it through. today, while our work continues, i want to update you on the progress:

bp has set aside 20 billion dollars to fund economic and environmental recovery. we're paying for all spill- related clean-up costs. and we've established a 500 million dollar fund so independent scientists can study the gulf's wildlife and environment for ten years. thousands of environmental samples from across the gulf have been analyzed by independent labs under the direction of the us coast guard. i'm glad to report all beaches and waters are open for everyone to enjoy. and the economy is showing progress with many areas on the gulf coast having their best tourism seasons in years. i was born here, i'm still here and so is bp. we're committed to the gulf for everyone who loves it, and everyone who calls it home.

jenna: right now the annual rose parade is just getting started in pasadena, california, and police are stepping up security for this year's event. that is because "occupy wall street" protesters plan to demonstrate with their own march through the city today. kttv's bob decastro is live on the scene with more. hi, bob. >> jenna, just in time the rose court just behind me here, appropriate for you, jenna. happy new year to you and everyone there at the fox news channel. yes, 700,000 people expected to pack colorado boulevard today and of course this has an audience not just around the country but around the

world. so what better place if occupiers or any protesters wanted to make a statement, then the rose parade. well, interestingly enough, the occupiers had applied through a permit to march in this parade. they actually had a float in mind. they were denied. and the occupiers we understand will be marching at the end of the parade. now this, oh my dosh, looking at this live a horse just fell, here, looks like the they're okay. but the occupiers, we understand, will be marching at the end of this parade. they have been given permission to do so. typically during every rose parade there are protesters at the end. the l.a. county sheriff's departmental loud them to do so. there is stepped up security here. you see them visibly but also what you don't see is some of the added security measure that has been put in place in los angeles county sheriff's department along with the feds making sure everyone is safe. everyone is clapping. you caught it here live.

i don't know if you saw that, but this horse here toppled over, the guy, the rider gets back on. there they are right there waving to the happy crowd here in pasadena. everything is okay. jenna: we saw the horse sort of slipped t looked like it slipped and fell down. glad the horse and rider look okay. bob, thank you so much. >> reporter: everyone is okay. jenna: that's a good thing. great shot of the street, bob. jon is a little jealous. he wants his own float. i will have to deal with him for the rest of the show. bob, thank you very much. bob decastro. kttv one of our favorites bringing live reports from l.a.. jon: sometimes those steel horseshoes get a little slick on asphalt. i hope he is okay. president obama heads home from hawaii today. he will get back to work at the white house but his re-election campaign is busy mobilizing supporters in iowa and new hampshire. republican candidates are getting plenty of attention but the president is hoping for symbolic victories in

key primary states as well. wendell goler is live at the white house. we haven't talked about his campaign very much, wendell? >> reporter: jon, he has no primary challenger but the president's campaign sees the iowa caucus like the new hampshire primary as a chance to organize and build enthusiasm for the general election campaign. mr. obama won both iowa and new hampshire in 2008. but iowa could be a tougher sell this year. new hampshire too if mitt romney is the republican nominee. the first family will be back from hawaii in time for the president to the address iowa caucus-goers by video tomorrow night with the two messages that seemed to have brought his poll numbers up in recent months. one that republicans are more interested in keeping him from having a second term than they are in working for the american people. and two, that they're more interested in protecting tax breaks for the rich than those like the payroll tax cut that helped vast majority of americans. the campaign has eight offices in iowa. nearly a dozen paid staffers,

hundreds of volunteers. they didn't get the new year's weekend off. his aids expect -- aides say mitt romney will be challenger and they expect a negative campaign. strategist david axelrod says when newt gingrich threatened romney the super pacs supporting romney's candy came in with shock and awe. millions in dollars of negative ads against newt. obama 2012 doesn't expect an easy campaign against romney but they do expect to be able to easily show that he moved to the right to win the republican nomination if in fact he does win it and that he flipped flop when it was convenient. jon? jon: 2012 the election year is finally here. wendell goler, thanks. >> truly a terrifying scene. children were trapped in a car in a icy river. how a former police officer used his gun to help get them out. thankfully he did. also we have this story. a buggy battle raging in

amish country as some refuse to affix safety signs on the horse-drawn carriages. the state supreme court is stepping in. we're live with that story we're live with that story next.u noticed! these clothes are too big,so i'. how'd you do it? eating right, whole grain. [ female announcer ] people who choose more whole grain tend to weigh less than those who don't. multigrain cheerios... five whole grains, 110 calories. ♪ that's good morning, veggie style. hmmm [ male announcer ] for half the calories -- plus veggie nutrition. could've had a v8.

jon: well, maybe we shouldn't be surprised, it is january after all but the new year starts with a blast of winter weather. arctic air already gripping parts of the upper midwest. in michigan some places could see up to a foot of snow. plows are ready to move into action but the intense cold will be on the move getting set to head east. let's go to maria molina live in the fox extreme weather center. >> good morning, jon. we're looking at cold air moving on east. you can't really complain too much. it has been a mild season so far for most of the east. we'll finally see some of that winter weather and some of those cold temperatures

making it as far as south as florida where we have hard freeze advisories. remember to bring the plants indoors. the snow is already coming down. we have cold air going over relatively warmer lakes. we have lake-effect snow upper new york and western pennsylvania. and guys, we're talking about a lot of snow out here, between one to two feet or locally three feet from some of the lake-effect snow bands. keep in mind next 48 hours downwind of the lake. the timing on the storm system. it will continue to snow through thursday morning as we ahead out to work. we'll see most of the lake-effect snow wiped down. the exception will be across morn parts of michigan. we have winter weather advisories in michigan and a warning across northern portions of michigan where we could see wind gusts up to 40 to 50 miles per hour. the cold temperatures for high? new york city, as we head into tomorrow, high temperature of only 29. jon, factor in the wind and

it will feel colder. jon: that sounds not like good weather. >> happy new year. jon: that is january. we had a weird snowstorm before thanksgiving. jenna: before halloween. >> before halloween. almost nothing since then. jenna: don't jinx, anything, jon. some folks were definitely ringing in the new year with a splash. folks across the country, part of them in my hometown of san francisco, braving cold water for the annual polar bear plunge. some taking the chilly dip for a good cause. they're raising money for charity. they're not doing it just because. others did it for the thrill of it. the tradition dating back to the 1920s. jon: i like the idea of polar bear plunge in key west. jenna: good idea. we should try that next year. jon: new additions in the new year with babies making their debut on january 1st. one pair of twins born just minutes apart but they will always have birthday in different years. patti ann has details for us. >> reporter: just one minute apart, jon.

as you say for those moms who go into labor on new year's eve always an exciting rivalry who will give birth to the first baby of the new year. difficult to get a nationwide winner but the competition is heated at local level. we have winners to show you but first that couple in tampa bay, florida, has even more unique distinction. the blairs are proud parents of twins born in 2011. the other one minute later in 201. the baby girls born by caesarean section, one delivered at 11:59. the other at midnight night. >> we were both undecided what we would prefer, 2011 or 2012. then one of each, i mean that wasn't really even something we had considered. >> it was actually just a happy coincidence. we have one baby out and then honestly i think as lea had been head first they would have gotten two tax writeoffs instead of one. >> reporter: tax writeoffs. other local babies checked

in with fox. in ohio the first 2012 baby was born at 12:10. he is doing great. the first baby of the knew year in charlotte, north carolina is tommy. his mom gave birth at 1:57al. congratulations to them all, jon. jon: they could have named the twins, jenna and patti ann. >> reporter: i'm not sure why they didn't. jon: patti ann browne, thank you. jenna: like the name, jenna. that was nice. that's good. one of america's most pristine settings is now becoming quite the crime scene. police searching for the heartless killer who took the life of a park ranger. we have an update coming up. welcome idaho,

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jenna: well, it is town to the wire in iowa, and we are glad you're with us today, everybody. i'm jenna lee, welcome to the second hour of "happening now". jon: i'm jon scott. you're in america's election headquarters as republican candidates make their final pitches before the big contest tomorrow. jenna: carl cameron at a rally for ron paul live in des moines, iowa, looking way more comfortable than he did earlier when he was standing outside. we're glad you're inside, carl. what are we looking at here when we look at this race? >> reporter: some of our coworkers were appalled by the way i looked so cold, so they were kind enough to let me come inside, martha, thank you. we're looking at ron paul, and look at this crowd. this room, a minute ago, had a wall halfway through it, and it

was set up for a crowd of 250. the campaign had to retract the movable wall, and now there are well over 500 people here for the rally. now, we should point out that a big percentage of these 500 are reporters. there are international reporters. i've talked to dutch press, asian press, all over europe they're here. lots and lots of reporters. that's a bret baier of fox news who has been desperately trying to find undecided iowa caucus goers here, and a minute ago spent several minutes talk to a guy from wisconsin because that's really what happens here. there are a lot of folks who come in to watch ron paul rallies and, frankly, they are not all iowa caucus goers. there's a tremendous amount of college students, many of whom aren't going to be around to caucus in their hometowns because they're either on their university campuses, or they've gone to other states. ron paul has a lot of support. he has a very deep organization. all of his rival campaigns begrudgingly acknowledge that he may have the best organization. so if ron paul were to win the

iowa caucuses, there's a lot of republican establishment that are worried it'll damage the reputation of the caucuses because his position is so far off what the normal republican candidate treads. so ron paul's got some issues. having said that, he is in really good shape to pull off a win here if he can stay ahead of mitt romney in money and organization. that's how it's won here. it's gotten to the point where it's like rote. 120,000 caucus goers would break the record, and you can win with 30 or 40,000 votes. mitt romney came in second last time, four years ago, he had 25,000 votes. he's kept a lot of his organization, many counties that he won last time are locked down, they say, so he could be very competitive. the real surprise is going to be whether or not rick santorum can do it. he only surge inside the last few weeks, he is the last in a parade of five who have

challenged mitt romney here at iowa, and he's done it at precisely the right time. his organization is good because he's spent a lot of time here, his buzz is exactly what you want. social conservatives arrallying to the extent there is any unity underway. is it enough? we'll know in 36 hours. jenna: and we're looking forward to watching this with you over the next 36 hours, earmuffs and all, carl, your fashion sense we completely accept. let me just ask you one quick question. we talk about the winners, right? there's a winner out of iowa. is that true that there is one winner, or could you have more than three tickets out of iowa that are really changing the face of this race? >> reporter: all right. so history has been in iowa a cliche that there are three tickets out of iowa. sometimes it's a fiscal conservative and a social conservative and a popular candidate with a late-minute surge. there's various different combinations. every single time the iowa caucus has happened in the last 35 years, there have been candidates if fourth and fifth

place that say, no, no, there's a fourth place and fifth place ticket, and you're hearing that from rick perry and newt gingrich and michele bachmann. they are saying they're going to look to south carolina as their firewall state and really try to beat up mitt romney in new hampshire where he is likely to win. but they will use that playing field as an echo chamber to voice their criticism of him mostly for the south carolina audience which isn't until the 21st of this month. suffice it to say that every sickle cycle people deny there are only three tickets out of iowa, but the folks who don't make those three tickets are seldom around to talk about it after about a month after the caucuses. history says there are only three. jenna: you just mentioned kind of scattering of candidates after iowa. so after we get through the next 36 hours, what is the relevance of the state moving ahead as we move towards the general election? >> reporter: well, michele bachmann has made it very clear that she will go right to south

carolina. newt gingrich will make a quick stop in new hampshire, but he, too, is concentrating almost entirely on south carolina, and rick perry's not even going to go to new hampshire except for the debates next week. he's all in for south carolina, and there's good reason for it. south carolina is the state that no president has failed to win from the republican party. you've got to win south carolina historically in order to become the nominee and the president. in addition, no republican has ever won south carolina without at least winning in iowa or new hampshire. one of the first states, the first caucus of the first primary. historically, nobody's won south carolina without winning in iowa or new hampshire. so for those who are skipping new hampshire who haven't won iowa, they will be trying to rewrite history, and in presidential politics, that doesn't happen very often. jenna: all right, carl. we'll continue to check back with you throughout the day in iowa. always appreciate the rundown and look forward to seeing what the next 36 hours show. carl cameron, say good-bye and hello to bret baier.

[laughter] behind you there. jon: there is a big problem in the pacific northwest. police just finished evacuating people from a washington state national park as investigators intensify their hunt for a cold-blooded killer. the new year began with a tragedy at mount rainier. benjamin colton barnes, now considered a strong person of interest, in the fatal shooting of a park ranger, margaret anderson. and given barnes' background, he could be a tough person to track down. rick lev b that would live in new york, he has more for us. >> reporter: this suspect is a war veteran with survival skills and a restraining order against him by the mother of his child who says he came back from iraq threatening violence and suicide and reportedly already shot four people at a house party in seattle sunday morning during a game of show and tell with guns that got out of hand. then he headed to mount rainier with body armor, survivalist gear in his car.

he's suspected of killing this woman, park ranger margaret anderson, when she blocked the road with her vehicle after barnes blew through a checkpoint. barnes left much of his gear behind, but authorities believe he's still carrying at least an assault rifle, running off through the rugged terrain through two feet of fresh snow, trying to throw off a tactical team on his trail. more than 150 federal officers are in pursuit along with a plane, but they won't use a chopper for fear the suspect will try to chute it down. >> we don't have a helicopter up because that is a concern. you're going to have to fly very low, and we have somebody with a high-powered rifle, and we're guessing this would be somebody that would probably shoot at a helicopter. >> reporter: in the meantime, the park is on lockdown. 125 sight seers and 17 staff members have been moved to the visitor' center, then they were evacuated under cover of darkness overnight. >> it was very emotional, up and down because, you know, we

didn't know what was going on around us. we hear little bits from other people or from the rangers or, you know, from the cafeteria people, and we kind of tried to piece it together, but we were pretty much on lockdown. >> reporter: authorities have a good track on their prey, but he was way out ahead of them, and they have to proceed carefully knowing he could be dug in waiting for the chance to kill again. jon: what an awful story. rick leventhal, thank you. jenna: for the first time in more than a year, israeli and palestinian leaders are set to sit down for face-to-face negotiations. the meeting tomorrow is in jordan, it's an attempt to restart the stalled peace talks. let's go to leland vittert who's live in jerusalem with more. hi, leland. >> reporter: hi, jenna. let's be very clear so we don't raise any expectations, this is talking about talking. and neither side has been at the negotiating table for more than a year, so baby steps may be a very good way to describe it. a member of the israeli negotiating team and the

palestinian negotiating team will immediate in aman, jordan, and they are going to discuss what their leaders might discuss if they actually end up sitting down. there's a few main, core issues; borders, security, the status of jerusalem as a capital for the palestinians, and also the issue of palestinian refugees. peace talks broke down more than a year ago last september when the palestinians walked away because the israelis wouldn't stop building settlements on the land the palestinians want for their future state. and still they say they are not going to return to the negotiating table unless those settlements are stopped. the issue, though, here is why this might be happening. the u.s. administration's been putting a lot of pressure on both sides to at least do something, talk in some way, so they may be placating the united states. remember, though, president obama leaned very, very hard on israel the last time around in order to try to get some movement here, and that did not win him any points with the jewish lobby in the united states. so experts say the american president and the american

administration is going to tread very lightly here in terms of pressuring the israelis for some type of concession. that normally means things here don't go very far. president abbas also went to the united nations about four months ago. that didn't get him very far either from the palestinian cause, so both sides now are talking about talking, jenna. at least to put this in a little bit of perspective, though, the pal palestinians have said we will not talk unless the israelis stop settlements, the israelis say we will not talk without preconditions. jenna? jenna: we'll watch for it tomorrow, leland. thank you. jon: the fires were burning again overnight, more than 50 of them around los angeles in all. do police finally have their man? the latest on the investigation and the man they've picked up, next. plus, say good-bye to a dollar and a dream. the price of playing the lottery, it's going up. we'll tell you how much and why.

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jenna: well, there's some new information for any of you lotto lovers out there. in just a few weeks, the price of a powerball ticket is going up for the very first time in decades, but apparently, this means bigger jackpots and more millionaires. maybe that's a good thing, patti ann. what's the deal with this? >> reporter: it's a trade-off, jenna. make that $2, a multistate lottery association which runs

the powerball game says the price of a single ticket will double to two bucks starting january 15th. on its web site, the association notes that the price has remained the same for 20 years. the statement also points out that people pay $2, 5, 20, even $50 for scratch tickets, so they decided to make the big jump, in their words. the good news is jackpots will increase, as jenna said. they'll start at $40 million, that's up from 20 million now, and they'll increase twice as fast. but officials say the odds of winning the jackpot will drop slightly because the number of powerballs will decrease from 39 to 35. still, they say, the pricier game should produce more millionaires because second prize for matching the five white balls without the powerball increases from 200,000 to $1 million. and you can still pay an extra dollar for the power play option which doubles all prizes except the jackpot. the cost of a mega millions ticket will remain at $1. jenna?

jenna: one of the only games where second place sounds pretty good. not as good as first place, but still pretty good. all right, patti ann, thank you. >> reporter: thanks. jon: it all comes down to getting out the vote. you never know for sure until the ballots are counted, but the latest poll numbers show rick santorum is gaining ground in the final stretch in iowa. "the des moines register"'s final poll before tomorrow's contest puts santorum in third place behind mitt romney and ron paul. some of the poll's findings indicate santorum could do even better tomorrow. the latest real clear politics poll average also showing santorum in third place ahead of newt gingrich and rick perry. chris stirewalt is fox news digital politics editor. it seems like the needle has been sort of swinging around, and apparently, now it's pointing to, it's pointing to rick santorum. why is this his moment in the sun? >> reporter: well, jon, look, you know, what is most interesting about all of this is

that rick santorum's rise is predicated on ron paul's rise right before his because rick santorum has been making this argument to culturally-conservative iowans and defense hawks in iowa that is you must not nominate, you must not choose ron paul. he's too far off the mainstream, he'll embarrass your state because of his views on foreign policy and because of his views on social issues. he says i have been here, i have been to all of your counties, i have been here all of this time, give me the chance to stop ron paul so he does not discredit your caucus process. and in a very unusual way, it works in a state like iowa because, as we always talk about, so few people relatively will participate in this. more than 100,000 people, but so few relatively. they understand the process, the caucus is very important to them, and rick santorum's argument of helping them stop ron paul from winning is getting some traction. jon: well, the question all along has been who would be surging just before the vote is

actually taken, and it would seem that rick santorum is the guy. >> reporter: it would seem that he's the guy, but rick perry's also shown upward momentum. ron paul may be able to hold on long enough. what we don't know is this, and this is the question that no one can answer until the process begins. who's showing up? what kind of turnout and what is the nature of those people who are showing up? is this going to be a small turnout affair in which the very aggressive and dedicated organizations for candidates like paul and santorum can make the difference in a low turnout affair? or are undecided voters who may be inclined to vote for somebody like perry or gingrich, are they going to come out and cast, and have their voice be heard? we don't know who's going to vote tomorrow. we're talking to as many people as we can about what is a likely caucus goer tomorrow, and there just isn't a good answer. jon: mitt romney didn't work real hard in iowa for a while, i guess he's made more of a push

lately, but he seems to be pretty well positioned there. is this sort of a happy surprise for him? >> reporter: well, it's a happy surprise, but it's also the manifestation of a long-range strategy for the romney campaign, and that is this: you can win with a plurality if the conservatives are divided amongst themselves, and that's exactly what he's gotten. the gift to him in iowa and across the country really is this: the conservatives haven't coalesced yet around one standard bearer. they tried it with perry, they tried it with herman cain, he's gone. they tried it with newt gingrich, that's faded. ron paul, is he plausible? maybe he can't carry it forward. so that's the great advantage for romney. with a relatively small portion of the vote, he can cruise through without having to expand his political base inside the party, and he's doing it in iowa. jon: you say what really matters in iowa for romney is who doesn't win. what do you mean by that? >> reporter: well, the most important thing is neither rick perry nor newt gingrich prevail in iowa because they are the

only two with the sort of national scope, high name identification, big fund raising operations, governor of the second largest state, former speaker of the house. he doesn't want them to get any momentum. if ron paul wins, rick santorum wins, it's easy for romney to say, well, iowa, you know how iowa is, they're conservative, they're super, and we think they're great, but don't pay any attention to them. but if right is starting to unite behind perry or gingrich, that sets them up for a strong showing in south carolina and the possibility they can go the distance with romney. jon: what about michele bachmann? she led in some iowa polling over the summer, she is born in iowa, represents a neighboring state. we don't talk much about her as a contender these days. why not? >> reporter: she's a member of congress. she's a member of the house. ron paul's different as a member of the house, he ran for president in 1988, he is a national figure who happens to be a congressman. but let's face it, it's been more than 120 years since a

congressman became the nominee for a major political party. she is an interesting figure, she is well liked by many iowans, but she doesn't have the heft, she doesn't have the profile generally that people look for when they get down to picking a nominee. they may like her, they may give her a straw poll win, but that doesn't necessarily translate to real support on election day. jon: chris stirewalt, our digital politics editor, thank you very much. and if you're surfing the web, you can check out foxnews.com. chris is keeping close tabs on iowa. he will be following every primary along the way. catch "power play live" on foxnews.com. jenna: well, a desperate father pleads for the return of his missing daughter, speaking out for the very first time saying he'll do anything to help bring her back home. we have the latest in this case. plus, we're live in iowa where candidates are reaching out to their supporters and hoping to win over undecided voters. keep it here at america's election headquarters.

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jon: right now some new information on legal stories we're keeping an eye on. in maine, the father of a missing child is speaking out in public for the first time since she disappeared more than two weeks ago. he says whoever took his daughter had no right to take her, and he'll do whatever he can to bring her back. police also investigating a series of arson attacks last night in new york city as possible bias crimes. molotov cocktails targeting an islamic center, a hindu house of worship and two nearby buildings, no injuries reported. a retired prosecutor from the casey anthony murder trial is running for state attorney in central florida. jeff ashton retired right after

the trial in which anthony was found not guilty. the former prosecutor says he hopes voters won't focus on that one case. jenna: well, it is the day before the first votes are cast in the 2012 election, and undecided voters could be the key to winning the iowa caucuses. steve brown is live in polk county, iowa, and, steve, we've been asking this question for most of the show about what is going to change the undecided voters to become decided. any further thoughts on that? >> reporter: um, perhaps a bit more study. um, seriously, i mean, these are folks that have been bombarded with television ads, have had all sorts of opportunities to come out and see candidates, hear them first person, get face to face with them, ask them questions, read coverage, watched the debates, and these folks will tell you that, excuse me, that this is a difficult process. take a look at the iowa poll from "the des moines register" that was out saturday night. 51% say they've made up their mind. the rest of them are in

different stages of sort of undecided, could change their mind, haven't picked a candidate, not sure. so that's an awful lot of folks. now, do they pay attention to the candidate of the moment? they most certainly do, and a lot of them will tell you, hey, let's take a look at rick santorum. and today at an event here in polk county the room was packed. yes, granted, much of it was media, but there are an awful lot of curious folks that wanted to take a look at him, and a bunch of them were undecided including the town's mayor. interestingly, one of the more high-profile republicans in the state, a very influential member of congress, steve king, he is publicly, at least, undecided and has told us, hey, he may show up at caucuses and not know who he's going to caucus before. it's happened to him before. so it's a little bit of the nature of an iowa caucus goer that they take the job so seriously, they make their decision at the very, very last second. often when candidates are being

represented by folks in their community and they give speeches on their behalf just before the voting happens, sometimes that's the point at which they make the speech which is at the very last second. jenna? jenna: keeps everything very exciting. steve, thank you so so much. steve brown in iowa. jon: a car with three children slides down an embankment and flips over into an icy river. also polls show mitt romney as the front runner in iowa, but what will it take for him to finish in first place in the caucuses tomorrow? a closer look next. okay, team! after age 40, we can start losing muscle --

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jenna: welcome back, everybody. you know, a lot of polls are showing right now that mitt romney has a small lead going into tomorrow's iowa caucuses.

if he wins, he will do it having spent less time in the state than his opponents. we're bringing in mitt romney's communications director and, gayle, welcome back to the show. >> thank you very much for having me. jenna: i saw that you worked with mitt romney back in 2008, and i have a question that's a little personal. i'd like your opinion about why you think mitt romney, now 2012, is a better candidate for president than the mitt romney of 2008. what do you think he's learned, what do you think has changed about him this time around? >> well, obviously, you learn a lot having done this before four years ago, um, but i would say that if you take a look at the issue environment, that has changed. four years ago what was important and on the minds of a lot of voters was national security, and you saw senator mccain who had had that kind of experience, and he was propelled throughout the race. but this time around it's different. the issue environment has changed to be more focused on the economy and economic

matters, so voters are looking at governor romney who has the private sector experience and also the plan, um, to turn this economy around and put people back to work. jenna: so you think the issues have changed more than the man himself? >> sure. well, i mean, there's no question that governor romney has learned a great deal since four years ago and so has his staff that were with him four years ago, but i think more importantly it's the issue environment that's changed. jenna: can you be more specific on that? as far as what you think has changed even for you guys? as you look at your communication team and you look at what you can do better and more effective for this candidate this time around, what specifically have you changed or altered to make sure he is the candidate for the american people? >> well, we've been going around to all of the early states, iowa included. in fact, governor romney's continued his bus tour in dubuque and davenport, and he's talking about the economy. the message in our campaign now has been the same since it's been at the very beginning.

back in the springtime when you saw him announce that he was running for president in new hampshire, he talked about the need to get people back to work and change, and fix this economy. and his closing arguments are exactly the same as his opening arguments. so we've managed to stay very much on message when it comes to, um, when it comes to that. jenna: let's talk about what some have been referring to as negative ads, newt gingrich has made a lot about this, and they're coming from a group that's independent of your campaign but, obviously, supporters of mitt romney. >> right. jenna: i'm just curious about what you think when folks say, listen, negative ads for republicans in general right now is wad news because it's going -- is bad news because it's going to make us turn on each other when we r5e8 need to focus on president obama. what's the response from the romney camp on that? >> the republican primary is about expressing differences between yourself and your opponent and, certainly, there are some differences in the republican field. um, and, you know, speaker

gingrich, he's said that he doesn't like the attacks that are on him, but, you know, it's -- the republican who gets the nomination is going to face an onslaught of attacks from the democrats, so if we do get the nomination, then our plan is to fight back and not to complain about it. jenna: not to complain about it. all right. how about this? are you a big fan of reality television? gayle, is that kind of -- >> i don't have a lot of time to watch tv, no. [laughter] jenna: well, i ask because of this. let's go ahead and run the sound bite from mitt romney. >> okay. >> i've been looking at some video clips on youtube of president obama, then-candidate obama going through iowa, making promises. and i think the gap between his promises and his performance is the largest i've seen, well, since the kardashian wedding and the promise of til death do we part. [laughter] jenna: poor kim kardashian, she cannot catch a break.

someone must be, well, i don't know, maybe you should answer the question. does mitt romney watch the kardashians, or is this an attempt to maybe get in touch with the culture of america, to the pop culture of america and make him look more real? because that's been some of the criticism is that maybe he's out of touch. >> well, i think he was just having a little fun. you heard the audience reaction there. he got a good laugh out of them. but the point he was making was very serious. um, president obama three years ago said that if he didn't turn the economy around in three years, then he was looking at a one-term proposition, and that's what governor romney is working to collect on. jenna: a lot of folks watch the kardashians. i didn't expect it to pop up in the political arena, but here we are. thank you so much, gayle, we'll continue to watch the race. we appreciate the time. >> thanks for having me. happy new year as well. jenna: happy new year as well. kim kardashian, jon -- jon: i don't watch. i'm sure she's disappointed. jenna: just to know you should watch, and i think our viewers

would agree with me on that, just so we could fully understand -- jon: i think i have to wax the calf. [laughter] speaking of cars, a car crashes into an icy river, three kids trapped inside. we'll tell you about how they made it out, a dramatic rescue. plus, a fight for freedom as an old-time religion battles modern safety concerns.

jenna: right now some new information on stories we're keeping an eye on across the united states and around the world from inside our control room in new york city. iran is claiming it successfully test fired a medium-range missile in the persian gulf today, wrapping up ten days of iranian navy drills in iranian waters. also, a group of strangers risking their own live toss save three children trapped in this car in an icy river. the children's father manage today escape on his own after losing control of the car on a

slick road. you can see what the conditions are like. all involved are, luckily, safe and recovering. and nfl quarterback tim tebow helping make a wish come true for a young brain cancer patient in florida. he's 8 years old, he met his hero this weekend in colorado, and despite losing against kansas city, the broncos clinched the afc west championship, and that means more tebow time to come. jon: good for tebow, good for that little kid. ♪ ♪ jon: taking liberties and a buggy battle in kentucky where a large amish community rang in the new year like it's 1899. members of one sect are refusing on religious grounds to put bright safety triangles on the back of their horse-drawn buggies. several have gone to jail defending their beliefs. well, now the state's supreme court is stepping in. douglas kennedy is in our newsroom with the latest in our series, taking liberties.

douglas? >> reporter: yeah, jon. the amish say the triangles violate their lifestyle. it's an agent that's not working in kentucky where some claim the slow-moving bug dwis are on knox chus. for many an amish buggy conjures thoughts of a simple time, far from the angst of the modern world. but for some residents in mayfield, kentucky, they're just annoying. >> i almost hit one coming home from work. >> you never know who's coming or going. >> they're tearing up the roads with the steel wheels. >> reporter: you don't like to see these buggies on the road. >> not without the orange emblem, absolutely not. >> reporter: brad is a state rep from mayfield, a town with a large population of a strict amish sect who live life like it's the early 20th century. stopping time in 1913. unfortunately, according to nesler, they're also stopping traffic, and he wants all the

amish around here to put these brightly-colored orange triangles on the backs of their horse-drawn buggies. >> it's a worldly symbol. its fluorescent orange and red color is contrary to their avoidance of displaying extravagant color. >> reporter: bill sharp is a lawyer with the american civil liberties union which now represents eight amish men who were arrested for refusing to comply. >> they do, in fact, use alternative safety measures that are equally effective at improving the buggies' roadway visibility and maintaining safety. >> reporter: now, the amish say they will put this reflective tape on their buggies, but they can't use the orange triangle because it's against their religion. what do you say to that? >> i think that the reflective tape does not reflect as much as they want to indicate that they do. >> reporter: the kentucky supreme court recently agreed to take the case. they will now decide whether the amish can live and ride the way

they want to. that's it from the here, jon, back to you. jon: and the controversy goes on. douglas kennedy, thank you. >> reporter: thank you. jenna: well, with rick santorum surging in the polls, the media is finally taking notice. so what does this mean for his campaign? our news watch panel is next with alan colmes and rich lowry, looking forward to that. and stick with fox news for tomorrow's iowa caucuses. we have the latest developments all day, and our special coverage begins at 6 p.m. eastern time. [ female announcer ] this is not a prescription. this is mary... who has a million things to pick up each nth on top of her prescriptions. so she was thrilled that her walgreens pharmacist recommended a 3-month supply and would always be there to answer questions about her health. now mary gets 3 refills in one and for 3 months, she's done. more or less. ask your pharmacist about a 90 day supply today. walgreens. there's a way to stay well.

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jenna: well, "happening now" in iowa, recent polls show a few candidates doing particularly well, but with the caucuses just a day away, plenty of voters say they might change their minds meaning iowa really could be anybody's race. and we're ready for a surprise.

shannon bream is live in des moines with more on this. hi, shannon. >> reporter: hi, jenna. well, on this final day before the caucuses, the candidates are crisscrossing the state making those final campaign stops and also filling the airwaves, radio and it's, a barrage of ads. they're all hoping to surge at just the right moment. that's what rick santorum thinks he's doing right now, and here's his reasoning about what's behind his rise in the polls. >> we've, we labored a long time, and we went out and talked about bold ideas and went out and talked about my record and talked about that we were the consistent conservative in this race and that we were the ones that you could trust, that we were the authentic, real deal that would create the real contrast with barack obama. bold colors, not pale pastels. >> reporter: michele bachmann who won last year's iowa straw poll but is now running at the back of the pack knows she's got to catch up. she's released a new ad here emphasizing her iowa roots and selling herself as the best matchup to go head to head with

president obama. texas governor rick perry doing a bit of damage control, fighting back against an article published this weekend quoting unnamed sources calling the perry campaign inept and claiming there's a lot of infighting. here is how the governor's responding. >> this is a told inside the beltway story. my campaign's working smoothly, and as we've worked across iowa, we've had great crowds, the campaign's working well, people are getting along, so i don't know where politico gets their information, but the bottom line is they don't have any sources, so i kind of put that off into the wasted time category. >> reporter: and with the polls showing that so many potential caucus goers here just simply have not settled, have not locked in on a single candidate, all of these campaigns know they've got to maximize every single moment they have left here in the hawkeye state. jenna: shannon bream live in iowa, thank you.

jon: so with rick santorum surging in the polls, the media seems to be paying more attention to his campaign. let's bring in our news watch panel, rich lowry, alan colmes is the host of the alan combs show and a familiar face here at fox. so is rick santorum surging, rich, because of media attention or in spite of it? >> in spite of it. he made this happen on the ground, jon. he, you know, went to all 99 counties, ran a very traditional iowa campaign at a time when a lot of the smartest pundits were saying, ah, you don't need to do that traditional work anymore. it's all about the debates, it's all about national advertising. so this surge is a product of hard work and a product, also, of all the other anti-romney candidates collapsing around him. jon: alan, do you agree it's hard work, and does it deserve to be rewarded? >> well -- [laughter] certainly hard work in that he visited, you know, went to every part of the state, and it's also, you know, the republicans have speed dated every other

republican, so there's nobody left other than rick santorum. but once they get a load of some of the crazy things he's said and done like taking his two-hour-old baby who died after childbirth and played with it for a couple hours so his other children would know that the child was real -- >> that's a cheap shot, alan. >> no, it's not. >> something that's that personal -- >> no, i disagree. i didn't interrupt you, rich. >> to mock him like that is really beyond the pale and beneath you. >> it's not beyond -- >> you're mocking him. first of all, i didn't interrupt you. >> well, i'm interrupting you because what you're saying is contestable. >> let me know when you're done. >> you want me to keep going? they lost a child, alan that's very serious. >> what i'm saying is i think it shows a certain unusual attitude to taking a two-hour baby home to play with his other

children -- [inaudible conversations] rich, i'll tell you what, let me know when i can speak, okay? >> go ahead. if you want to continue to mock that, go ahead, alan. >> i'm not mocking it. >> yes, you are. you're saying it's going to hurt him. >> go ahead, go ahead, go ahead. >> among the republican electorate. >> go ahead. if you want me to be in the segment, let me speak. >> to deal with that loss? jon: let's move on to something that mike murphy said. he is a republican strategist who was on "meet the press" over the weekend. here is what he said about the attention that rick santorum can expect to get now from the media. >> it's the media. the media works like the jurassic park dinosaur, not always the biggest brain, and it follows movement. when it sees movement, rick santorum stomps over there, and it tries to eat rick santorum. jon: what do you think about that, alan? >> let me go back and say what i wasn't allowed to finish finish. i think it shows a certain lack

of judgment, i think it shows a certain behavior which is questionable, and i think it's something people do can think about and consider when they're looking at a candidate. he has said a lot of other crazy things like consensual sex in the home will lead to other bizarre behavior. i mean, what the media really needs to focus on is some of the things he has said and done, and once they do, he is so far outside the mainstream that he can't be taken seriously as a candidate. >> first of all, i even think some of the dastardly characters we have in the mainstream media are not going to go as low as you just have, alan, to make fun of that incident. >> i disagree. >> two, rick santorum has traditional, catholic attitudes toward morality, and, yes, manhattan liberals, that will strike them as bizarre and threatening. i think the media tsunami we'll see against rick santorum on these issues is not going to hurt him in the -- >> what he actually said was the

supreme court issued the right to consensual sex in your home, you have the right to bigamy and incest. he is comparing the right to do so by the supreme court to incest, bigamy and polygamy. >> actually, alan, he went back and said that's not what he was doing. the point he was making -- >> that's a direct quote. >> the point he was making is that even a liberal like you will make judgments about sexual morality when it involves things like bigamy and -- >> i'm giving you a direct quote which -- >> maybe you don't, alan, for all i know. maybe all you do is condemn people for marking the loss of their children in a way you disapprove of, but i think you probably make judgments about those kind of matters, sexual matters -- >> i don't judge other people's consensual sexual matters, it's not my job to do that. jon: all right. the issue, though, is, is it because the fact that so many of these republican challengers, so many of the republican candidates have sort of peaked

in iowa and then dropped in iowa, is the iowa caucus goer, rich, now coming around can and taking another look at rick santorum in a way that maybe they haven't before? >> yeah, no, the timing is perfect for him, and it's partly a product of everyone else falling around him. i also think he's going to be harder to discredit than some of the other credits because there's no scandal involved with rick santorum, and he's very capable of defending his views. you saw him on "meet the press," a very tough interview with david gregory going at him head to head on all this stuff, and he defended himself just fine because he knows policy, and he's an articulate and impressive politician. jon: gregory asked him, alan, you know, would it be a disappointment if he didn't finish first in iowa, and he says, wait a minute, you know, ten days ago i'm at 5% -- >> yeah, he was right about that. one of the other things he did say on "meet the press" is that he would bomb iran's nuclear

facilities. again, so far out of the mainstream that he would immediately assume we couldn't get -- >> you're going to get -- the inspectors are going to take care of the iranian nuclear program? is that what they've been doing so far? >> but a threatened first course? >> this is after a decade, alan, you think we're just now dealing with the iranian nuclear program and it's not something that's been on the radar screen until now? >> his statement was, again, so far outside the mainstream as it has been -- >> well, if you're really going to stop them, ultimately, probably that's what you have to do. >> rich, if you would like him to be your candidate, as it sounds like it is, great, let him be the nominee. jon: alan, you don't think the president has one set of contingency plans on his desk that involves an air strike -- >> sure, but you don't say if you don't do this, we're going to bomb you. the rhetoric is so overheated -- >> he's stating his position. >> could i, please, finish the

sentence? it leaves little room for option once you use that rhetoric. >> alan, if somebody asks you what you're going to do as a presidential candidate, i know as a supporter of obama you probably like confused and hazy answers, but he's actually saying what he believes and what he thinks -- >> you can accuse the president of hazy answers, but you look at the foreign policy santorum also said he made fun of the attorney general for a lax attitude towards bin laden and, of course, the administration got him. you're not going to win going after this administration on foreign policy or how we've treated our enemies, so i think that's a no-winner for your side. >> -- iraq, and iraq is now going down the toilet. >> that was the bush timeline to get out of iraq. >> iran is probably not going to stop their -- >> it was bush's timeline to get us out of iraq. [laughter] jon: we're going to have to end it there. >> we're just getting started, jon. jon: we'll try and let alan speak, and we'll certainly have rick on the panel with him. i'll host news watch 2:30

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