new york and next weekend from manchester, new hampshire as the game continues. bret baier and megyn kelly begin caucus night coverage from america's election headquarters. >> bret: welcome to the beautiful iowa state capitol in downtown des moines. good evening. i'm bet baier. >> i'm megyn kelly. fox news coverage of the iowa caucuses starts right now. captions by closed captioning services >> bret: this all comes down to this? >> this is the most important election of our lifetime. >> iowa, the first test in 2012. >> we are ready to take our country back in 2012. >> bret: seven republic candidates. >> you are going to hear it straight up. you are going to hear it honest. >> megyn: face to face with the voters. >> you can trust me because i have been there and i have done it. i did it as a leader. >> bret: who will represent the party? >> i will never waiver from my

conservative convictions. >> what we need a less. less spending, less taxes, less regulation. >> megyn: and take on president obama in november. >> we don't need america to be transformed. we need to have america restored to the greatness we have always had in this country. >> bret: the battle for the republic nomination 2012. pg. >> live from des moines, iowa, this is america's election headquarters, the iowa caucuses. >> megyn: good evening, the iowa caucuses are getting underway right now. these are live pictures from two of the 1,774 caucuses across the state. >> bret: they all start with the pledge of allegiance then caucus goers pick a chairman and a secretary. people then deliver speeches on behalf of the candidates they are fighting for and then everyone in that room votes by secret ballot. now we don't have the results yet but we will learn the results officially together over the next three hours. and we will analyze them as they come in. >> megyn: we have complete coverage of tonight's caucuses with our panel here in iowa

and in new york chris wallace, carl rove, and joe trippi. martha maccallum will be looking at enentrance polls and what's on the voters' minds tonight and bill hemmer will be drilling down on the results throughout the state in realtime. the fox news decision team crunching the numbers will make the call when we have a winner. >> bret: we will also have our team of reporters stationed across the state. now, based on early entrance polls conducted by fox news, we can now say that the iowa caucuses are, in fact, shaping up as expected into a three-man race. among ron paul, mitt romney and rick santorum. at this hour, it does not appear that michele bachmann, newt gingrich, or rick perry will win tonight. now, again, these are preliminary projections based on people entering the caucus sites as they showed up to the various caucuses but had not actually yet voted. they can be changed and fox, of course, will revise these projections as we receive more of these polls plus we will begin to receive some actual

vote totals soon. >> megyn: that's the thing. the entrance polls are less reliable than exit polls. and really, you know, you have to take that with a huge grain of salt. what happens at these caucuses is you might tell some pollster on your way in yeah i think i'm voting for mitt romney. you might get in there and your neighbor and pastor says this is who i am voting for and you completely change exespecially 41% of the electorate according to the des moines register latest poll is undecided. >> bret: completely change. at one of those caucus sites tonight we have shannon bream. shannon? >> hi, bret. the excitement is building here. hundreds of people have piled in this church in waukee, iowa. two precincts caucus here in iowa. housekeeping and all important speeches. each candidate hopes they have a surrogate in each of the caucuses to speak on their behalf to give that last-minute plea for votes before they actually get started voting. tonight they have a special guest here because texas

governor rick perry has decided to show up in person to make his plea to what we expect to be a thousand caucus goers. this church holds more than 900. it's filling up very, very quickly. he showed up here a little bit earlier. he has been working the crowds out in the lobby talking to votes. trying to persuade them. i have got to tell you we have heard so much about the fact there are so many undecideds people could change their minds once they got to the caucus. we found that to be a fact. some of it have narrowed it to two or three people. they are waiting to hear the speeches. coming in here with their sheets of paper unsure which name they are going to check off. these speeches could make a real difference at the last minute for the thousand or so voters we expect to show up here. interesting to note too once those votes are done they actually tally them right here on site. they will announce the results. people can cheer for hopefully the person they voted for as the eventual winner. those results are then reported officially to the iowa g.o.p. they aggregate all the totals. they don't recount. simply add them up and make

the final announcement a little bit later tonight. folks here are excited and ready to get underway. bret, back to you. >> bret: turnout, turnout, turnout. shannon bream. >> megyn: happens so quickly. the democrats are caucusing and they knew within 120 minutes it was announced. get results quickly and be able to bring those to you. campaign karl carl cameron is at the romney campaign headquarters in des moines. what's happening there? >> well, we are stating waiting on the crowds here for the rally afterwards what the mitt romney camp hopes will be a victory rally. they ache knock they don't know entirely what will happen tonight. they hope to win. anything short of second would be a real set back. he came in second four years ago in iowa. this time around he hasn't spent as much money nowhere near as much time as he did last anytime. nor as much time in iowa as other candidates. romney criticized for not having invested enough in the first caucus campaign. here is he possibly knocking

at the door victory. one two punch so favored in new hampshire. there romney has a big big lead in the polls. when it comes to the pocketbook romney has advantage as well. while there is some truth that he was caught a little bit off guard by the late breaking rick santorum surge they have adjusted pretty quickly. romney will be adding to his ad campaign in south carolina and putting his own ads on in florida states that come even after new hampshire at the end of this month. in addition, romney has that super pac that newt gingrich has been complaining so much about. it's independent from his campaign but it's done an awful lot of damage to his rivals and helped romney in subsequent states. if he comes in first, obviously that's great. second equals what he did last time. third set back and raise questions whether ron paul does have the long-term viability that many republicans say he does not. and whether or not rick santorum can raise the money and build the national organization to really sustain his surge into the top three. there has been a lot argument in iowa that there are only three tickets out, win, place or show and anybody after that even though they say it's a

different kind of campaign every four years ultimately they can't go the distance. this time the distance is a little bit different. the campaign for the first time in the national republic committee rules will run much, much longer. harder to clinch the nomination and take until april 24th for any candidate if they won every single contest. while mitt romney is hoping for a one-two win in iowa and new hampshire the first two in the nation it's still a long way down the road before any candidate is going to be close to wrapping up the nomination. megyn, bret? >> megyn: thank you. >> bret: steve brown in johnston, iowa, steve? >> hi, bret. we understand that the senator is out at the local caucus site giving his pitch on his own behalf to caucussers there. it's interesting, carl was talking about money earlier in the day rick santorum was talking about well our campaign was run on a shoe string but that's a little insulting to shoe strings. the only thing that santorum had to spend a lot of the time was his time. and he spent a lot of it here in iowa.

over 375 different town hall events. all across the state. was easily the first to visit all 99 counties. that pretty much was his reputation as a person who had put in the work. but people weren't all that familiar with or didn't seem to coalesce around until recently in the polls. now all of a sudden is he riding that surge that we have been talking about. they think they see a lot of former huckabee backers coming their way. they have a lot of questions tonight. some of them include whether or not people think that the bachmann supporters will they stand pat or will they come running at the caucuses it they think that santorum has a chance, particularly those that identify themselves as value voters or evangelical conservatives. the santorum campaign is also kind of needing to put a little faith in the folks that are out there doing things that are out of the radar, under the radar or out of the reach of the campaign. i was talking with chuck lautner, santorum advisor he said the media misses an awful a lot of campaigning. the conversations in the grocery store. the conversations at a

daughter's basketball game trying to coax people who are not just republicans but independents and democrats that aren't exactly happy with what they are getting these days to come to the caucuses and at least listen and try and build up those audiences at those caucuses and maybe some support for the candidate. chuck lautner says that's what a lot of the huckabee backers did four years ago and helped him into first place. he sees a similar wave. doesn't know if it will bring santorum up into that surprise first place position, the campaign says all they are looking for is a top three finish. they feel pretty good they have gotten it bret? >> bret: all right, steve. thank you. >> megyn: those of you just joining us we want to update you what fox news has learned thus far from the entrance polls before the iowa caucus goers actually go into their caucuses. we have learned at this hour at this preliminary early hour that it appears so far to an a three-man race as expected from the polls that have been done in the days preceding tonight. that three man race between senator san forum, governor

mitt romney and congressman ron paul. those are the three leaders at this moment but, again, the votes haven't taken place yet. that's just based on what folks told our pollsters before they walked into the caucuses tonight. >> bret: now as it shapes up going in the bottom tier would be congresswoman michele bachmann, former speaker newt gingrich and texas governor rick perry. the key part is the official voting inside caucus. surrogates standing up, making pitches right now at this hour. they want to get those votes out. they will be tallied momentarily we should have results a little bit later. >> megyn: see how persuasive they are if they can change this line up the way it's come out based on the entrance polling. as iowans go to their caucus site we have a team asking them questions to get an idea why they are voting a certain way. martha maccallum is live in new york with our entrance polls, martha? >> it's very interesting. what we are seeing as you all pointed out early in the game and we have to be cautious about that as you pointed out,

megyn, as they go into the caucus we are getting entrance polls rather than the typical exit poll that you get on the way out during the primary season. so here is what we are learning about some of the biggest themes that we have discussed so much in recent weeks in this race. they were big in the 2010 congressional contest, right? this is the first presidential primary season that we are seeing the tea party effect. and it is a force to be reckoned with. let's take a look how these numbers are shaping up right now. in the iowa caucuses we have 63% who say that they support the tea party and here is how those votes are shaping among the people who say they're tea party supporters. interesting split here. ron paul getting 25% of those votes. rick santorum at 24%. romney who has not courted that group all that much at 18%. and gingrich gets 15%. so how about this question? which we have talked about a lot as well. do iowans this time around want to pick the person who they think is electable, who can make it to the white house? is that a priority for them?

only one out of three in the entrance polls so far say that beating president obama is the most important thing in their vote tonight. here is how these particular people in that group are voting. also not too surprising here mitt romney gets 47% of that group who are looking for electability. he is going to feel good about that newt gingrich 28% of that vote, santorum and perry on the low end on that particular thing and in terms of the entrance polls. here is another thing ha we talked a lot about. are the candidates conservative enough? so 46% of the people who walked in tonight consider themselves very conservative voters. that's up just a little bit since the last election. here is how their candidates are shaping up tonight. in the very conservative group they are requesting for rick santorum early stage of the game 27%. ron paul 22% of those numbers, gingrich at 16%. mitt romney at 14%. here is another category we talked about a lot.

evangelical christians. tonight so far they are making up 54% of the caucus goers. a little bit smaller than we saw last time around. they were 60% of that number. and tonight they seem to be trending, not surprisingly, to ron paul and to rick santorum. so, also, before i send it back to you, we have talked a a lot about the late comers, the people who had their minds changeable over the course of the last few days. we are going to get some indications coming in the next wave of these entrance poll numbers that will tell us how those late voters and people who might change their minds how they are voting and how that could be hugely significant in the outcome of this election night. that's where we are at so far. we will be back in a little while with more. back to you megyn and bret. >> megyn: martha, thank you. >> bret: through the evening we will get analysis from "fox news sunday" anchor chris wallace and his special guest, chris. >> chris: bret, thank you, plenty to chew over first tonight with the entrance polls and then later on when we get the actual results and who better to chew them over with than two great political insiders karl rove, the

architect of george w. bush's victories in 2000, 2004. and joe trippi who started working on a county for ted kennedy in 1980. tiny j jones county in the northeastern part of the state in iowa. let's go through some of those entrance polls. carl, tea party, not surprisingly paul doing very well. is he one of the godfathers of the tea party. romney gets 18% to paul's 25 on the very conservative santorum doing well 27%. romney down at 14%. what do you make of that? >> what matters here is the differential. there is only one of these groups where there is a big gap between somebody and everybody else and that's unelectability where a third the voters say that's their number one issue and romney is getting nearly half of those people. >> chris: 47% for romney and santorum only 10%. >> what's interesting is like when the tea party support it's split it's 25%, 24%, 18%, 15%. that's split among the very

conservatives. intlit among four candidates, 237, 24, 16, 14. is there something like the electability issue where romney gets a big bump or another issue where another candidate gets a big bump compared to everybody else. if they split it all up, then it ends up being to the advantage whoever gets the big advantage on the one other issue. >> chris: i'm a little surprised, joe, because when i look at the very conservative, people who identified themselves as very conservative. santorum 27%. paul 22%, gingrich 16%. romney all the way down to 14%. two to one you don't think that's a big deal. >> no. i think that is. that's not a good sign necessarily for romney to be able to pull it -- this out. i'm also surprised how low the electability issue is. i would have thought given the concern about obama that that would have been a higher number than the 33% that we're seeing. it's still early in the night and see how that changes. >> chris: let's go and again, all of this is very

fragmentary. it's entrance polls. we know people that may change their minds. people are going to be hearing in the caucuses from surrogates. they may decide to vote for somebody other than who they told our poll takers as they went in. but, if it is true that there is this top tier of paul, santorum, and romney, karl, how do you read that? what's the key there? >> well, the traditional argument has been there has been three tickets out of iowa, first, second, and third. i suspect we are likely to see four or five tickets out of iowa tonight. the top three and then, depending on the moneyened a the stature of who is in fourth and fifth. but it's going to be a close race among all these candidates. >> chris: now, if there are five tickets out, at least the first three being first class, the last two maybe in coach or steerage, what do you make second tier of bachmann and perry and gingrich. >> well, in that tier i think perry, because he has some money can hang in for a while. i think newt gingrich will hang in regardless of the results tonight. i think the one in the most

trouble there would be michele bachmann. >> chris: real quickly. i have a minute left. each take 30 seconds and tell me and start with you, joe, what town, what county, where are you going to be looking tonight? >> dubuque county. eastern part on the mississippi river. 23% of the states catholic. dubuque is 65%. upwards of 6 a% catholic. if santorum is moving it's going to have to start up there. >> chris: one of the keys is romney did pretty well 52% in dubuque. if romney is going to eat in he have to do this there. >> i will be looking at polk county comoin, webster and jasper. if romney is going to win the state, he has got to come out of those places with 25% to 30% on the vote on a pretty consistent basis. >> chris: if these guys can find this much in a couple of entrance polls just imagine what we will be able to dig up once we have actual results to analyze. >> bret: that's right. we will be looking for the first class and coach tickets.

chris, thank you. >> megyn: it's happening right now. the people of iowa are starting to caucus, folks. the votes are underway and we will soon know which candidate will win the first contest of the 2012 presidential election season. we are live at all of the campaign headquarters. >> bret: plus, we will hear from our all-star panel along with brit hume, mike huckabee, ed rollins, charles krauthammer, sarah palin, as we await results from the 2012 iowa caucuses. [ monica ] i'm away on a movie shoot

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>> what we are going to do at

that time -- >> megyn: welcome back, folks. take you live to one of the caucus sites and give you a look how it takes place and unfold. this is a caucus site we told you about earlier where shannon bream is loaninged. she sent us an email saying they are expecting record turnout. now they are expecting more than 1200. let's take a listen. >> lastly nominations for platform planks. what platform planks are, they are basically statements that we as republicans in dallas county believe. once that's done, caucus will be concluded and we will all be able to go home. now, before we start the caucus process by opening up with a pledge of allegiance, i just have three announcements that i would like to make. the first is that we are holding caucuses all across dallas county. and a lot of these facilities cost money. so what we are going to do is hang out buck bags. and as you feel like generously donating to the republic party, we are going to use that money to help off set that cost. second of all, you will receive the volunteer form

with your ballot. volunteers are the heart of any organization and we need you. especially this year. president barack obama is anticipated to raise about $1 billion in cash for this election cycle. and one of the ways that we can offset that is by having a strong, grass roots organization. volunteering can be as easy as putting a yard sign in your lawn and be as simple as help knock on doors or making phone calls on behalf of a candidate. you can also help organize events and fundraisers. if you just want to know what's going on when dallas county g.o.p. put your email address on the bottom there. send it in, we will make sure we send out periodic emails letting you know what's going on when dallas county. lastly before we open up with the pledge of allegiance, i just. >> megyn: there you have just a sampling as they are getting things underway. bret told you they will proceed with the pledge of allegiance and have whatever campaigns representative there

stand up. hearing at various sites an romney is there. some of mitt romney's sons are there various representatives of the campaign. have a couple minutes to make their last pitch to the caucus goers by b. why their guy or gal is the one to vote for. >> bret: you see background iowa is the swing state for the general election. republic party in all of these places is getting ready to mobilize for the general election but, of course, the big voting tonight is for this election. the g.o.p. nominee. right now the top tier going in and these are entrance polls, people walking into caucus sites. ron paul, mitt romney, and rick santorum. and then the bomb -- bottom tier bachmann, newt gingrich, and then governor perry. now, there is no order here yet. and, again, they are entrance polls as megyn said, persuasive speech could change a lot. let's get to the all star panel here in iowa. joined by steve hayes senior

writer for "the weekly standard." bill bill kristol editor of "the weekly standard." juan williams for the hill. >> megyn: let's start with the information we know it so far. not a huge surprise in terms of the tiers. the decision desk looking at what we have seen so far does not believe that the lower tier is in a position to win tonight any of those three. big shock? >> no. but i think what we are see something basically a scuffle to be the anti-romney. and in the current environment what you are seeing right now is that that's going to be call or at the outside you are going to see santorum come it in with the sudden surge that we witnessed in the last few days. the scuffle at the bottom tier that we have been watching, megyn, i think is really telling. people are still hoping to be that anti-romney candidate even as romney, despite all that turmoil, cannot quite break above that number. if you are a tea party person

and i think a lot of that agitation comes from the tea party -- of the republic party, they're looking for someone like a ron paul or if you are a very conservative person they are looking for someone like santorum. they are not looking to romney. >> megyn: sorry, bret, i want to follow up with bill on that. are you surprised, bill, among those who consider themselves very conservative you got santorum getting 27% of the vote. ron paul is getting 22%. >> yeah, the ron paul effect, kucinich liberals antiwar. paul supporters kind of confusing. looks to me as pregnant men tear unreliable exit poll results as you said yourself could be changed people change. >> bret: thanks for the couching. i thought we had been couching it all along. >> results of pregnant men tear polls -- fragmentary polls. >> i will be surprised if

romney lead. i will be surprised in he beats ron paul and santorum. i come back to this fact and he would you sayside it earlier. mitt romney got 2 a% of the vote in 2008 against a pretty tough field. i think he really ought to do as well this time honestly. he comes back four years later, is he better known. he has had four years of publicity as the leading republic critic of barack obama. running against ron paul who, in my opinion isn't really a credible nominee. rick santorum from-to-his credit campaign. gingrich pummeled with ads. if romney can't get above 2 a%. i think it's a problem for him going forward. >> bret: shannon bream antic antic -- antidotally says this is through the roof. people still waiting outside. standing room only. governor branstad on "special report" said 130,000 he estimated. if the turnout is really high,

what is the conventional wisdom? some people say that ron paul, mitt romney could see a big surge as well. >> it depends why the turnout is really high, right? if the turnout is high because ron paul has managed to persuade independents or democrats to come and caucus for him, taking people who are not otherwise republicans and not otherwise expected to be at these caucuses, mingling with republicans. casting their votes, then i think it could suggest that ron paul has a good night. a better than expected night. and it means that his organization, which has been so highly praised and so much discussed in the lead up in the iowa caucuses actually turned out to do, to produce the kind of results that his people were telling everybody they would. on the other hand, if it's a turnout because you have people though are most interested in getting barack obama out of office, that suggests, according to the entrance polling that mitt romney could do very well. if that's the top criterion of a third of the people and that's why they went to show up and they are otherwise not very active republicans or people who haven't caucused

before that, could suggest that mitt romney has a very good to do well tonight. >> pick up on something steve says which i think is very important here, we are seeing a lot of independents, people who are not willing to self-identify as republicans coming into this process in a way that we haven't seen before according to the des moines register poll last weekend on sunday. it said that they were twice as many. 26%, 25%. a lot of observers here. >> megyn: thank you. we will come back to you often throughout tonight. a look at waukee, iowa where shannon bream came to us earlier. rick perry opting to make an appearance. making last minute push himself. this is an example of why the entrance polls have that asterisk after him. one of the candidates self-action showing up at the caucus site, maybe it makes a difference to you. holding up the pen right now. first i thought it was his postcard talking about his tax plan and how you get to file your taxes. it's just a pen. coming up, more live from the

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through diet and exercise, alli can help you lose one more by blocking some of the fat you eat. let's fight fat with alli. ♪ >> the things i care about were the things. >> megyn: welcome back. you are look at ann romney at the same caucus site in waukee, iowa. trying to make the case for mitt romney. take a listen for a moment. >> hear a a very exasperated wife. i had five very naughty boys. they are wonderful now but the best part of being a grandparent i say is now watching my grandchildren

misbehave. [ laughter ] my children deserve every minute of it but mitt row woo remind me of something and i love this about him. he would say, ann, hang in there, i will be home soon but, remember, this what you are doing is more important than what i'm doing. your job is forever and brings forever happiness and my job is temporary. that's what motivated me to keep going and trust that this great partnership we had was based on such trust and that knowing that our values were in the right place know r. now we have great kids and everything is wonderful. so now what i'm looking at is a very unusual situation in the country right now. there are wonderful people running for president but i believe that there is one person that can actually defeat barack obama and that's mitt romney. [ applause ] >> bret: listening to ann romney obviously wife of governor romney making a pitch

in waukee one of the caucus sites obviously a very hot one because governor perry made a rich, ann romney made a pitch. >> lighting and the drums. a place to be. >> bret: that's a hopping caucus site. most of these places people who just advocate on behalf of the candidates stand up. not actually people tied to the campaign directly we are starting to get some early official results from caucus sites around the state we will be putting up a ticker throughout the night. see the raw official total come in throughout the night on the screen. >> all reality in part to county how the candidates are going to do. go over to bill hemmer live in our new york city studio right now. is he over at the touch screen. i think we call it the billboard. keeping an eye on the results as they come in. >> good evening to both of you. precious little county information at the moment. early in the night. what we wanted to do is take

up the 99 counties in iowa. take about six, half a dozen here and key on them and tell us what will had mean for a mitt romney or ron paul or rick santorum earlier you heard karl rove talk about polk county. joe trippi talking about dubuque county. heavily catholic. mitt romney won convincing there four years ago. if rick santorum is having a good night. a lot of votes will come from that county for him. "the soo" county in the northwest here, that is a county that mike huckabee won with 53% of the vote four years ago. how did he win iowa. that caucus four years ago in 2008. on our touch screen historically we can go back to that year and break it down in terms of vote number based on county returns in the iowa caucus between huckabee who was number one, by the way he is on deck. you will hear from him in a moment here mitt romney who finished number two. in the 99 clts you see how this is spread out.

huckabee won all the counties on the screen here in the deep red. center part of the state just dominated with one small exception right here in the center where mitt romney beat mike huckabee in dallas county west of des moines by a total of four votes cast in that county. romney framed the state four years ago. >> i won the western part of the state heavily conservative he won the eastern part of the state which tends to be a little more liberal. we will see whether or not he increases margin of vote four years later in these places or whether or not someone like rick santorum or ron paul, perry, gingrich, bachmann, can they steal some of this center territory and try to make it a better night for them. again, no county results in officially just yet. it should be a couple of minutes here and we are on stand by to see how and when that map changes it will tell us an awful lot. bret, megyn, back to you in des moines.

>> megyn: bill hemmer, thank you. >> bret: mike huckabee knows what it means to win iowa. he did it he is now, of course, the host of fox news channel huckabee. he joins us now. governor, thanks for being here. >> it's great to be here with you. a little different position than it was four years ago. i think it's a little easier sitting through these returns. >> bret: what about your thoughts going in? you see these caucus sites and all these people making pitches. what are your thoughts as you listen to some of those entrance poll results earlier on? >> well, i have been saying for some time that i thought that mitt romney really was in a very good position to win and when people said but he hasn't been in iowa. they forget he was there camped out for months on end four years ago. he built a lot of relationships that are still there and capitalized on those. splintering of the vote that really broad coalition of values voters. and let me say that a lot of people have tried to pigeon hole that as evangelical.

they are missing the point. it's more than just evangelicals. it's really a working class section of the republic party. and one reason i think republics are having a struggle nationally is they are not addressing the real heart and soul of a lot of working people who are truck drivers and people who work in service capacities but they are republic and they are conservative and they are traditionalists. all these candidates are talking about each other and obama. not talking about the people there in the heart of america and what they think about every day when they wake up. >> megyn: governor, megyn kelly here, welcome to you. i want to ask you about something carl cammeron said earlier, every four years we hear people say this year is different in iowa in terms of you only get three tickets out. he said, you know, this year we are hearing the same thing and yet he pointed out that it could be very tough for mitt romney from this point forward if he does have anything less than a second place finish in

iowa. do you think that's right? >> not necessarily. it depends on how much spread there is between 1, 2, and 3. if mitt romney is in a very tight third right behind second and first place isn't very much separated from that i don't think he has anything to be ashamed of. but the real issue is what happens to numbers 4, 5, and 6. they will run out of money. one thing candidates should not do. do what the federal government has been doing that's killing this country economically. spend money they don't have. borrow money they can't afford to pay back. when candidates do that they will regret it for the rest of their lives. they will be convinced they will win if they do it, truth is they won't. >> bret: governor, when you won four years ago, 60% of the caucus goers said they were born again or evangelical christians. by the entrance poll numbers, it's roughly 50% tonight by what we are seeing so far. and they are saying that they are voting for rick santorum and ron paul.

one are you surprised by that. >> first of all all the voters voting for me four years ago are all going to heaven. that i can tell you. the rest of them i'm not so sure about. if more had voted there would have been a much larger construction project going none heaven even now. no, i think what's happened is the economy is clearly eclipsing everything else but here is what people have to keep in mind. it does not mean that pro-life, pro-family voters have quit caring about those issues it just means while they are important their primary focus is on how to get the jobs back and communities once again build hope for those people out there in the middle class who want a better future for their kids quickly governor, if someone wins here like did you, do you think it's tough to continue if you don't have the organization to get you into some of those big

states with big money? >> well, it is. the fact that some of these candidates didn't even qualify for the virginia ballot people can say what they want to about my rag tag organization four years ago, there wasn't a single state in which we didn't qualify for the ballot. had we not had some organization, we didn't have a lot of money but we had a very strong network of volunteers. you have to have that. it's not enough to just say boy, i have got a lot of juice because of an iowa victory. that has to translate into organization and mobilization are ultimately you will fizzle out sooner than you want to. >> bret: governor huckabee thanks so much. we will follow up later. >> megyn: senior political analyst brit hume with his take on tonight's caucuses. >> bret: plus, keeping an eye on caucus sites across the state. waiting for official results to come in. a lot of them saying they are packed. iowa caucuses on fox news channel america's election headquarters. in america, we believe in a future

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>> megyn: welcome back to live coverage of iowa caucuses underway at this moment as republicans begin to cast the very first vote of the 2012 presidential election season. we want to bring you an yuted date now from our decision desk. there is not yet a clear winner in the state of iowa but we are getting information on who will not be the winner tonight. decision desk appears that the candidates have broken out into two different tiers. three candidates per tier. romney, santorum and paul in the top tier. gingrich, perry and bachmann in the bottom tier. now they are adding to that that fox news can project that michele bachmann who just last august won the iowa straw poll in ames will now finish last in this six person race in iowa. of course jon huntsman will finish seventh but he has not campaigned here and all but

gave up on iowa setting his sites on new hampshire. fox news can now project that michele bachmann will finish last in what is essentially a six person contest here in the state of iowa, which is quite a turn around for her in the several months since august. bret gret in addition, we are projecting that this has come down to a three-man race with ron paul, mitt romney and rick santorum. this is from the fox news decision desk. obviously we have more information as the actual vote totals come in. a lot is coming together in piecing that picture together. a lot of voters were still undecided coming into tonight's caucuses. what's on their minds? john roberts is at the iowa results center here in des moines. hi, john. >> hey, good evening to you, bret. yeah, all day long we have been taking a look how undecided voters have been using the internet to try to come up with some sort of a profile of a candidate that they are very comfortable with. now we are beginning to get some results into the google web site. daniel sibert from google is with us.

take a look at this map from iowa as it is beginning to fill in with colors here. we see a lot of color representing rick santorum green with ron paul and romney. they seem to go 1, 2, 3, let's correlate that with the searches people have been doing on google. >> you mention that site google.com/elections. anybody can go and check it out. compare with the search engines within the past hour you can see folks searching iowa caucus. the top candidates, rick santorum, ron paul, mitt romney just as you noted a second ago in terms of them leading the election results. very early though. >> look at that we have got a data screen over here. this is our display screen. santorum, ron paul, romney in terms of the earliest results. take a look at santorum because he had this huge surge in the last few days here leading up to these caucuses. what have you found in terms of searches? do the searches sort of correlate with the surge that he has?

>> so far in terms the last few hours we have drilled it down to seeing that rick santorum has received 7. a times as many searches just here in iowa as he did a week ago. you can see we compare that to the other candidates. they have all seen a little bit of a spike here in iowa but nowhere near what rick santorum has seen. >> when it comes down to issues we wonder will rick santorum do well because people in this state are really concerned about social issues or may mitt romney do well because people are concerned about the economy. what did you find in terms of searches that people had been doing here on the internet looking for information about those topics? >> we have broken it down a couple of ways. talk about it here on the big screen. we go back to 2004. we have got abortion, gay marriage as social issues. spiking very high. sometime in 2008 they all sort of level off with economic issues. but look what happens here towards the end of 2011. unemployment becomes the primary issue for folks here in iowa. >> unemployment the primary issue for people in america in terms of iowa in terms of searches. so far rick santorum seems to be doing better than the guy on the money who when it comes

to nic issues. bret, let's see how this goes throughout the night. back to you. >> bret: okay, john. thank you very much. >> megyn: coming up after the break. senior political analyst brit hume joins us with his thoughts on tonight. stay with us.

>> bret: we just got word that precinct 313 in west des moines, former senator rick santorum showed up to make his own pitch as we saw with texas governor rick perry asking for their votes and griff jenkins tells us quite a reaction from the crowd at this particular

caucus site. >> megyn: want to update you now on what we know so far. the caucuses are underway and the voting is taking place still. what we are able to project at this hour is michele bachmann will finish in sixth place basically jon huntsman is dead last. he didn't campaign in this state but michele bachmann it appears will finish in sixth place in this contest and the fox news decision desk is saying this is a three man race between mitt romney, rick santorum and ron paul. what a turn about for rick santorum in particular who has worked very hard in this state but as of at least december 15th the fox news debate we were questioning him about why despite those efforts he had not caught fire. different story for him tonight. i want to bring in now senior political analyst brit hume to comment on what we have seen so far. brit, your thoughts at this hour. >> well, no great surprises, megyn. i would say that it will depend to some extent on what the actual totals are. but it does appear that this finish will give rick santorum

the moment that he has been hoping iowa would give him and it gives him a real chance it seems to me to emerge now as the new non-romney leader and as the candidate around whom the conservative wing of the republic party, which is as much the republic party that's recess test to mitt romney could coalesce. if ron paul wins, that probably doesn't do very much to advance his long-term prospects it may do a little damage to the long-term prospects of the iowa caucuses as a determiner of winners. >> bret: bret, as you look at thissenned at fox news decision desk is saying any three of these men could win based on the entrance polls and actual vote totals and you think about the perspective of rick santorum almost not qualifying for one of our debates because he was at 1% roughly nationally and he went to some events here that he only had one person showing up in iowa. it's pretty remarkable in

perspective. >> i think, bret, it is remarkable achievement and testament to his determination and his ability as a candidate. you know, it also raises this issue. the knock on rick santorum and you see it reflected to some extent in entrance polls where he doesn't do well on the electability question and that of course, dates from his loss in 2006 in his senate re-election campaign by, what, 17 points or 18 points to democrat bob casey. i think that has been a burden for him to carry and it will continue to be a burden to some extent. this achievement in iowa where he basically went around the whole state and met everybody and convinced people to come out and vote for him to give him a strong finish give him something to say about that give him a bath of welcome public attention. chafed under what he thought was limited attention in the debates and limited news coverage. he will get a waive of that particularly if he wins going into new hampshire. new hampshire hasn't shown, bret recommendation, as we all know a lot of respect for iowa winners in the past but he have a shot.

>> bret: all right. >> megyn: brit hume, thank you, coming up the first contest of the 2012 presidential election is underway. we are live at the candidate campaign headquarters across the state. >> bret: keep it here. ... hello, i am chef boyardee. i make real italian ravioli. filled with hearty italian seasoned meat, in a sauce made with vine-ripened tomatoes. and no preservatives. 80 years of real great food from a real great chef.

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if your bank doesn't give you knowledgeable customer service 24/7, you need an ally. ally bank. no nonsense. just people sense. >> brett: welcome back to america's election headquarters. >> megyn: i'm megyn kelly we're doing prosecute des moines, iowa. >> we have breaking news in the race. iowa caucuses have tightened up. in the last hour, into a very close race between ron paul, mitt romney and rick santorum. these are based on a sample of votes across the state, we're seeing an extremely tight race at the top spot in iowa. what you are looking at there is the actual vote totals coming in. you see 4% reporting at the top. however, what we're looking at

is the entrance poll figures as well as the actual vote totals. these three men are in a tight, tight race to win the iowa caucus. >> megyn: look at the numbers. they tell the story. as we've been reporting all night the remaining candidates are in a struggle what appear to be a fourth place, gingrich and bachmann is out of this contest but rick perry and newt gingrich vying for fourth place. gingrich 13%, perry 9% with 8% reporting, bachmann with 6%. predicting she will come in sixth out of 7. jon huntsman coming in last. >> brett: we talked with chris wallace. tickets out of iowa, first class or coach. let's turn to fox news

contributor ed rollins, he is a former deputy chief of staff to reagan and managed reagan's landslide reelection and major rolls in nine other presidential campaigns. ed, good to see you. your thoughts as we are getting these numbers and entrance poll numbers? >> the fascination paul has a great organization. he has been running for six years. romney has been a front-runner and has the same kinds of numbers four years when he got 30,000 votes, 29,000. santorum has caught this momentum. he has done what you traditional had to do in iowa, with no money and met the voters. he is the ultimate of retail. it's nice to see the three of the bunched here at the end of the day. three of them will go on. bottom tier will go on also i think for a very short period of time. the reality is that santorum has the conservative alternative. ron paul will stay in the race.

romney basically still has not made indicates he can expand beyond that 25-30% vote for four years at least. >> brett: for a good while you were with the michelle bachmann campaign. she has suggested she is in this notwithstanding what may happen in iowa. do you believe that is true. what do you think this could mean for her? >> i feel badly for michelle and her team. he is a great retail candidate. she may have peaked too soon and at the end of the day she didn't pass the muster that you need to be looked as a credible candidate. if she goes on she will go into debt. she has no organization in new hampshire. south carolina is toughest politics we play. you're going to have perry and gingrich and others fight. she would be better to endorse somebody today. she won't take my counsel but at

the end of the day, don't go in debt. >> brett: she won the straw poll in august? >> i think what happens to candidates when you get to a certain point, people take a hard look. there is kind of stature gap for members of congress who try to step up. i remember, jack kemp i was chairman of his campaign and gephardt, look i got a congressman from buffalo. paul is has a diffent kind of con city win si, it's hard to go from the house to be treated as a serious presidential candidate. >> brett: ed rollins, thanks for your perception. >> megyn: steve hayes, bill krystal, editor of the weekly standard and kirsten powers, columnist. we're getting some of these entrance poll data.

>> there is a lot of different things that are interesting. for people, born again, evangelicals, it's the same, around 60%. 58. but they are not breaking necessarily for one person. they are going 25% for santorum and 21 for paul. you are not seeing the huckabee effect which would be all of them coalescing around them. another thing that is interesting, how do you feel about the tea party movement. they are somewhat supportive. 65% and they are breaking evenly. 41% for paul, 46% for santorum. he has a much bigger percentage of them but it's pretty well spread out. >> brett: does it look like a strong ron paul night. it seems very tight? >> it's strong. i think it's michelle bachmann will probable get out. i think rick perry will have

tough time going forward. i generally don't tell candidates what to do. he spent $4 million as sitting governor of texas, serious guy, if he ends up 9%, it would be hard for the voters of south carolina, those two other states put a lot of money in iowa and nationally televised votes, he will have a tough sell. we'll see more of it in iowa than what we expected. i assume newt will go on and newt will have a lot of debates to perform in. the big story, paul did well but his support is a lot of independents. he does worse among conservatives and okay among conservative voters and by far, ron paul moderate voters. they are not republican voters. i don't know how it will translate with other republican states when republicans turn out to vote. so for me the story is, what looks like romney's failure to expand his electric for at over

four years, which is a failure. bob dole got more votes in iowa in '96 than '88. people normally, if they won twice, they do better the second time obviously. romney hasn't. santorum really has a moment to go to new hampshire, run third if he can and be the conservative alternative to romney. >> megyn: it's remarkable results to first time caucusgoers? >> 38% of the people said first time caucusgoers which is much higher than anybody present diblgsd and ron paul is getting 38%. so it's much higher, much higher than anybody else. if you look at people that are self-identified independents, one out of four of the people that cake out to caucus. ron paul is getting 50% of those. half of the people who over as independents are voting for ron paul.

it does suggest to me, it's a bit anolmulous but the fact that ron paul has been here. >> brett: rick santorum is right up there. santorum was the top vote getter in a suburban des moines caucus and the party is saying this is a big bellwether site. state party saying the precinct is bedroom community that went for huckabee in 2008, of 184 votes cast there, santorum got 64% of the vote. it suggests that perhaps he is urge is go in des moines. >> we should pay friday put out to rick santorum. it was two weeks ago where rick santorum, he was in the low single digits. a week ago, there was shock and

finally polls showing going up to 14, 16%. there is pretty extraordinary performance. i don't recall ever seeing a surge like this. it's attributes to the fact that ron paul's vote is limited. he has been better than his core and mitt romney didn't expand his vote at all. two weeks ago, mitt romney was at 23%, santorum 6%, and now it's the other way around. all the voters still open-minded went to santorum rather than to romney the question obviously santorum is not going to get -- he is going to get scrutinized but he has shown an ability to make the sale to real voters in a real estate to win over new voters which others have not yet done. >> he is going to have to get ready. obviously to put under a lot of

scrutiny. to me it seems like it could have been anybody. he was the person who surged last. maybe if he had surged earlier and had an onslaught slaut what if gingrich had surged late? which is the most important issue. federal budget deficit and economy is 76%. he only wins 30% of those people. they are evenly split between romney and ron paul. i think that he is sort of anti-romney and putting all the hopes and dreams on. we saw so many republican candidates surge to perry and bachmann and they all came down. santorum surged at the right time but that experience tells you that he also is headed to a fall win or lose in iowa? >> economy matters here. we know for sure that mitt

romney's theme is putting together an opposition research file on rick santorum which they will attempt what they did to newt gingrich. rick santorum he was the defender of earmarks. we'll see that and it will happen i think almost immediately starting tomorrow. again rick santorum when he was on center seat in late october on special report, what he said he wanted to do is lay out a campaign if he caught fire in the last couple of weeks of iowa he would be prepared to go forward. it seems to me he has done that. he has an organization in south carolina that may enable him to do it and take a shot in new hampshire. >> brett: this race is extremely tight. raw total, 24% for ron paul, 23% for rick santorum, 23% for mitt romney. this is tight. let's get over to the romney campaign now. that is where our chief political correspondent, carl

cameron, your thoughts? >> i talked to a couple of romney aides watching all of this, they are maintaining a cautiously tight-lipped sense of optimism. at this point they are watching the results with everybody else. they note that ron paul is doing well des moines. polk county and suburbs compromises up to 70% of all the vote and ron paul doing well. santorum in rural parts the of iowa pick particularly in the north central, santorum is doing well in some of these counties. romney didn't spent a lot of time in iowa but they will be concentrating on daw port and very strong for romney last time around. they want to see if santorum gets a big surge on western part of the state. where evangelical and value voters seem to be concentrated. if santorum gets a surge there, the romney camp is worried.

>> brett: if mitt rom am any comes in third, after a week of coverage in which the focus was he could win or he would come in second and all of the talk about that. in fact, there was a back and forth whether he was predicting iowa, but he walked it back. what happens with a third place romney finish in iowa. >> reporter: in a middle of rally cry, he said he can win this to his audience. that was taken as prediction of victory in iowa. you have to be very careful to not come across arrogant. they are fickle and undecided and light to change their mind caucusgoers and they have been known to punish candidates. third place showing would be disappointing for romney and long term viability of ron paul, organizationally and whether he is in step with the mainstream republican party and whether mr. santorum can put the national organization that

romney already has. rick santorum has had a lot of time spent in new hampshire and south carolina. romney campaign is looking at this and going back to their original posture which is this is going to be a long campaign. they're happy to come out for the top three in iowa. >> brett: carl, thanks. >> megyn: as the board stands so far we've got a 3 person race. ron paul at 24%, romney at 23%. santorum so far at 23% with 13% reporting in. it is a three-person race and it is neck and neck. after the break. we expect some results coming from shannon bream's location. we may hear those live. stay here on at america's election headquarters on caucus night.

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>> brett: welcome gang bak to state capitol in des moines where results are coming back, waukee, shannon bream is there. we'll get exclusive results from the chairman of that caucus as the people are waiting behind you. >> shannon: this place has been jam packed. two precincts caucus together. this is tyler the chairman as they work together as single caucus. in both of these precincts, you have a clear winner? >> romgz in waukee with roughly about 1678 votes and then for urbandale precincts he won. second place was season with 52

votes and rick perry with 46. for urbandale, second place again was santorum with 89 votes and gingrich came in with 86. >> shannon: very strong showing for mitt romney. he clearly won both of these precincts. they appear to be the big winners. >> for these precincts that is correct. >> shannon: first on fox, back to you. >> brett: need to go home and have dinner or something. thank you very much. appreciate it. >> megyn: we'll check in with chris wallace. >> chris: as you imagine we've been sifting over the results. interesting enough, joe trippy he says romney is not in the lead. he thinks it's shaping up for a

good night for romney. he has two people in the top tier that is going to split votes the rest of the way. he doesn't want to get caught one on one. which with would have been bad if perry or santorum. three people in the top tier, that is good for him. he wants it to be the rest of the way. >> chris: do you agree with that? >> i agree. in dallas county, he carried the county by four votes over mike huckabee. today he has a much bigger margin out of precincts we've seen so far. the principle is not -- when you are dividing the vote up among equally. if romney wins third or fourth, the ones that want to beat obama as he did earlier tonight. we saw a third of the people that was the number one issue. he took one out of two of those. all the rest of these things,

people dividing a quarter here or 20% there, 18% there, doesn't matter where he is on those as long as he has a big lead. >> chris: let me ask act a contrarian. according to the latest results. romney has got 22.5% of the vote. he got 25%. this is the guy the presumptive front runer, the presumptive front-runner and he can only get 22% of the votes? >> he is having a bad night actually. he may come in third, but what is good for him, a guy as weak as he is doesn't want to be caught one on one and fight over the long haul. >> chris: look at the numbers, carl. we're refunding them out to 23%. doesn't it feed the narrative this is very weak front-runner. ronald reagan got beaten in

iowa in 1980. he got beaten by bush. the man who ultimately won the nomination got beat in iowa. the real winner, rudy guliani didn't go to iowa he was afraid of getting beat. >> the point is right, romney is fighting to be the not romney he does well. this gives him time to build and put a couple wins behind himself and maybe he's got resources to turn it into a long run. >> chris: rick santorum is going to have a good night, whether he finishes first, second or third. how much can he use the iowa bounce to give himself, how can he capitalize on it and become a viable candidate for the nomination? >> what he does for the first time, matters, even the pundits have been glued watching this,

most of america is going to see rick santorum for the first time tonight. how he handles that moment, where he goes now. does he go straight to new hampshire and takes it to romney and tries to force the race as gary hart did to my guy, monday daily, it was condition mon daily. >> and you got 40% and hart got 19%? >> and he beat us in state after state because he was able to get us one on one. if santorum can do that, this what romney does not want. if perry goes to south carolina. in gingrich goes to south carolina, if santorum and paul are in, you've got exactly the kind of fractured field that helps romney win. >> chris: how much can rick santorum capitalize what is clearly going to be a good showing? >> internet will help him raise

money, but he doesn't have much time. we have new hampshire coming within a week. he's got to make a decision as to spend a little money he has in the precious time he has there or head south to south carolina where it's more hospitable. there is one on one battle, romney versus huntsman. >> chris: paul is going to get in? >> you're right. but in terms, my suspicion, huntsman and paul versus romney in new hampshire and everybody else. >> chris: if you were running, santorum's campaign, would you do what huckabee did, go to new hampshire or go to south carolina and fight in more hospitable ground? >> i think he has to go to new hampshire. what will happen, whoever does well in new hampshire against romney will end up getting the bump out of the evening he is likely to get out of the bump tonight. >> chris: it's an interesting evening, brett. we're going to get more interest

ago as we get more results and see how the race shapes up. >> megyn: chris, thank you zbloobts if you want to see the realtime results coming in, obviously tune in here but go to foxnews.com/iowa and you can click on different counties realtime and see the results as they are popping up. see the different colors there. those are the different candidates and get a sense of how this map of this state, 99 counties is really filling in. right now, ron paul, 25%, santorum, 24%. royz, 23%. this is an active fluid thing. as you are watching here or during the break, check out foxnews.com/iowa. >> we're keeping an eye on entrance polls. martha, some interesting information. >> we're getting a sense of what

the entrance polls mean as we see the numbers coming in. very tight as you've been reporting tonight. let's take a look at some of these groups. independents who could walk in on the scene and registered to vote in tonight's republican caucuses make up 24% of the caucusgoers so a quarter of them decided to vote tonight. guess where there supported is going. ron paul, 48%. a lot of independents who came to the caucuses to get behind him as you can see. what about the late decideders. we've seen so much action in iowa and heard a lot about large percentage of iowans, 40% were willing to change their minds. 25% of those say they were influenced by the campaign ads. that has been a heated scene. 18% said they decided today. and very good for rick santorum,

32% went to santorum. 22%, we've seen a lot of romney momentum building. he has claimed there is a lot of enthusiasm. 22% went for him. gingrich and perry at 18. what about the issue who is a true conservative? 26% of the voters who have been answering this question, they consider themselves true conservatives and that is what they are looking for in a candidate. 40% of those true conservative voters went for ron paul. 34%, this is important because perry and bachmann have been vying for the report of the true conservatives. santorum has done very well. 34%. perry, 10%. what about the question, goes to the heart of romney's argument. he has been claiming all across iowa the better prepared person will be someone will have background in business. 52% responding, 38% say

government experience prepares someone better for a job and those people are going for ron paul tonight. it's fascinating the way it's shaping up and what people thought as they head in for the evening. >> brett: martha, thank you very much. >> megyn: in terms of the numbers, it is a very, very tight race for the top spot. so far, latest numbers, santorum romney and paul all with 23%. look at how close those numbers are. ron paul, 6018. romney, 6060, santorum, 6,067 with 22% of the precincts reporting. it is neck and neck. this could still go any way according to the decision desk. just want to give you an update, gingrich at 13%. perry at 10%. that is one of the interesting

stories of the evening, who would come in ahead. gingrich or perry. but the night is young. we didn't know it would be young. we thought we could have a result. >> brett: its horse race. when we get on the other side of the break, charles krauthammer and his analysis of the iowa caucuses here on america's election headquarters. this is an rc robotic claw. my high school science teacher made me what i am today. r science teacher helped us build it. ♪ now i'm a geologist at chevron, and i get to help science teachers. it has four servo motors and a wireless microcontroller. over the last three y we've put nearly 100 million dollars into american education. that's thousands of kids learning to love ience. ♪ isn't that cool? and that's pretty cool. ♪

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...i flew us to the rock i really had in mind. ♪ [ male announcer ] the citi thank you card. earn points you can use for travel on any airline, with no blackout dates. earn points you can use for travel on any airline, i remember the day my doctor told me i have an irregular heartbeat, and that it put me at 5-times greater risk of a stroke. i was worried. i worried about my wife, and my family. bill has the mos common type of atrial fiillation, or afib. it's not caused by a heart valve problem. he was taking warfarin, but i've put him on pradaxa instead. in a clinical trial, pradaxa 150 mgs reduced stroke risk 35% more than warfarin without the need for regular blood tests. i sure was glad to hear that. pradaxa can cause serious, sometimes fatal, bleeding. don't take pradaxa if you have abnormal bleeding, and seek immediate medical care for unexpected signs of bleeding, like unusual bruising. pradaxa may increase your bleeding risk if you're 75 or older, have a bleeding condition like stomach ulcers,

or take aspirin, nsaids, or bloodthinners, or if you have kidney problems, especially if you take certain medicines. tell your doctor about all medicines you take, any planned medical or dental procedures, and don't stop taking pradaxa without your doctor's approval, as stopping may increase your stroke ri. other side effects include indigestio stomach pain, upset, or burning. pradaxa is progress. if you have afib not caused by a heart valve problem, ask your doctor if you can reduce your risk of stroke with pradaxa. >> megyn: welcome back to capitol building live in des moines, iowa where the results are coming in the first of the nation iowa caucuses. so far we know the top of the leaderboard remains neck and neck between romney, santorum and ron paul.

literally just a handful of votes separating these three men. would you look how close it is? folks are still counting. we are not in a position who came in second or third. >> brett: we can tell you the bottom tier, there is a battle for fourth, gingrich and rick perry obviously once led in the polls are battling for fourth place finish. you are looking at raw totals here but fox news decision desk this is a tight race. gingrich has a double-digit lead among all rivals less of an month ago. he predicted yesterday he would not win the caucuses and battling for fourth place. perry had a lead in iowa and he is battling to stay on. he says he is going to fight in south carolina no matter the result. michelle blchz finish sixth.

jon huntsman will finish last. he didn't xreet compete in iowa and he said tonight, nobody cares. what about this race and where we are? joining us from washington, charles krauthammer. your thoughts on what we've seen so far. >> it's amazing how the top three are really in a dead heat, absolute numbers between them. it's a spread of about 60 votes total. if this were presidential election, would it matter as the florida result did in 2000, but this is the opening contest when almost no delegates at stake. it's really the impression. i think it is a dead heat. of course, we will proclaim whoever runs up ahead as the winner and make a big speech. essentially i don't think there will be any real difference between them. that means for romney and paul

it's something of a setback. when poll when you show the number of late decideders, he wasn't on the board. it implies he has fixed constituency that is not going to expand. with romney, he has been in a flat line. he can't go over the 23%, 25% which shows he is not expanding either. so it's a strategic defeat for him. however, tactically i think it is a good night. perry, gingrich obviously santorum will be in the race. he'll have new hampshire almost as a concession. when it ends up in south carolina where is the big contest is going to be, he still will have a split opposition for the traditional non-romney constituency. i think that helps him.

santorum is the big winner. it looks like he'll be the one who inherits the mantle and make the fight. ultimately in south carolina, bachmann is clearly out, perry will stay in. i think he is the one who has had the worst night. he spent millions of dollars in iowa. yes, he has the money but he spent so much of it in iowa which should have been a friendly territory. it implies that money is not going to help him in the future. >> megyn: how significant do you think it is as we see perry and gingrich vying for fourth place. we talked to mike huckabee earlier this week how he won iowa but by the time he got to south carolina, fred thompson was still in the race. it didn't appear he was likely to win. he attributed his loss in south carolina to fred thompson remaining in the race. if we see gingrich or perry how much does that affect the winner

in new hampshire? >> it clearly is going to help romney. it will split the traditional more ideological part of the party. i'm not sure either of them, gingrich or perry ending up with fourth is anything like a victory. the spread between the top tier and the second tier is enormous. it isn't if as he coming in 19%. the somebody at 10 and 13. if you end up between that, the others have doubled your vote. in is clearly a very bad result for any of them. it's enough to get gingrich, perry into the next contest but it isn't enougho make a case that this is a candidacy that really has life. >> megyn: what do you think happened to newt gingrich. he attributes it to the negative

ads unleashed against him? >> the problem is he had enough negative history in terms of conservative or orthodoxy that would give the contents to hours and hours of negative ads. imagine you had santorum you wouldn't have that. if you tried it on romney you wouldn't have that. he had a history that lends itself to that kind of negative campaigning. it wasn't only the ads or the money, it was the fact there was substance in the ads and behind the money. >> megyn: charles, thank you. >> brett: this is a horse race. the top three, governor romney, former senator rick santorum, congressman ron paul, it is neck and neck at this hour. as we take a look at it, 23%, 23%, 23% and we are getting numbers all the time. we have more with our all-star

panel after the break live from des moines.

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because your moment is now. let nothing stand in your way. learn more at keller.edu. >> brett: welcome back to des moines, iowa where results are coming in. romney 23% with 7844 votes and look, rick santorum in second place, only by a few, about 60 votes, no about hundred votes. they said there would be no math. okay. it's really close neither iowa. top three are battling for first. >> megyn: one of the stories is going to be who comes in fourth. it appears to be a battle between gingrich and rick perry. so far the results favor mr. gingrich.

he has 13%. rick perry behind at 10%. there is a significant distance between them but we only have 27% reporting now. bachmann is in sixth with just 6% of the vote at this hour. coming up now, our panel. more with our expert panel. it's neck and neck. it literally seems to be too close to call among the leaders. every time we look back there is a different person on the top three. in any event, when it winds up if romney coming comes in third, is it a big story? >> part of the problem romney didn't play it very well. they started in the last couple weeks. we're definitely going to win. once you out there saying you can win, you have various expectations. couple weeks ago, mitt romney is not doing that well in iowa. they raised the expectations a little bit. it's not going to kill him. he will do very well in new

hampshire. he is going to be okay. look, when you have three top people splitting the votes, what that says you don't have a person that people are really rallying around which isn't great for the republican field. >> brett: bill, you heard karl rove talking about a lack of money concern about organization if he gets in the top three, any of those, and then you have super packs who could support him with a lot of money. in south carolina he could make a run? >> he could do decently. conservative rally for him. paul keeps his votes and romney goes down, he could have a decent surge. i think romney's problem is not a problem of expectations. he almost got 30,000 votes last time. >> he had played it out, not expecting him to do that well in

iowa. >> maybe. at the end of the day, he didn't dominate. what is the normal reason that should make the romney the favorite if the establishment wants to. but there are super packs and they spent more money in advertising in iowa. >> brett: governor perry spent more. but two to one, super packs spent more. >> santorum doesn't have that of money. he would be a better nominee and if they buy millions of dollars of ads in section sk and florida why doesn't have rick santorum have a chance? and for one of the reasons, if you talk to the romney campaign two months ago they were worried about perry and they were worried about gingrich. perry was a heavyweight, gingrich former speaker of the

house. they destroyed gingrich pretty effectively. they may end up with a conservative opponent rick santorum who doesn't have gingrich's or perry's vulnerabilities. >> but it doesn't look like newt gingrich who was the front-runner who is vying for fourth place now is planning on going anywhere. >> it's been an extraordinary fall. and i was with a senior gingrich advisor, absolutely no way he is getting out. he is totally serious about lasting out and the non-romney field and taking it down. and gingrich for walking away coming in fourth or fifth. that is not going to happen. what is interesting in his interview with brett yesterday, gingrich said he thought he would outperform john mccain who got 13% here and wound up with the nomination. gingrich is at 13%. he is basically meeting the bar he set for himself.

there are two significant differences, first that john mccain skipped iowa and mccain at the time was the beginning recovery and he was moving into a to new hampshire that was going to be strong. newt gingrich is heading down. his campaign has been flailing and he is trying to come up with an explanation. >> they werefied and third and fourth. there wasn't the dramatic drop-off we're seeing right now from the third to the fourth. >> megyn: thank you, stand by. >> brett: let's go over to john roberts with results and data. >> reporter: all day long we've been taking a look at what people have been looking for in the internet in terms of trying to find a candidate. it's been correlate weigh the results. there are eerie similarities. daniel from google is with us as

we see the maps fill in. what are beginning to learn here. >> let's compare with the new realtime results with some of the search issues. let's go over to the big screen. we have broken this down to the top metro areas within iowa. you can see jobs is the number one issue that people are searching for in all those metro areas followed by security in most cases. it was health care, abortion showing up in some of these metro areas. >> reporter: if we can lay this over the top of the other one. in davenport where romney is leading, jobs and security are the number one issue. we see some green in here, representative have ron paul. debt was an issue people were searching for. northeastern part, cedar rapids, purple which represents rick santorum. abortion was an issue that people were searching. we see some correlation particularly in southwest iowa

where rick santorum is making his mark. abortion was an issue there. jobs number one and we're seeing romney. it's eerily predictive. >> absolutely. if we look for the search for the candidates. we're seeing the same sort of thing. last seven days with the top three searches won des moines. ron paul, rick santorum, mitt romney and go within here, he has moved up a little bit. >> reporter: not scientific but a lot of data. >> brett: we're analyzing it here. coming up, we'll talk to former alaska governor and former presidential nominee sarah palin and get her analysis of what is happening. >> megyn: we're on the edge of the seats as we await the results of the caucuses. we are live at all the campaign headquarters. we'll get reaction just as soon

as we get information on who has won the iowa caucuses. stand by. we're live in des moines.

>> megyn: on the leaderboard. everybody at 23%. santorum 7726, paul 7655. it is very tight with 25% reporting. romney remains on top of the board of three. it is very tight still. not in a position to make any sort of call. >> brett: you did so much better with the numbers.

newt gingrich, at 13%, there is a battle according according to the decision desk for fourth place. with 27% reporting. we are combining with the numbers and saying this is really a battle for fourth place between gingrich and perry. depending on if you believe there is a first class and coach ticket out, three, four, five, that is a real battle tonight. bachmann we can confirm projected she will come in sixth. >> megyn: to follow chris wallace, she would be in spirit but jon huntsman did not make it. tonight we've been very focused on the republican race for president. however, there is something going on over on the democratic side. our chief white house correspondent ed henry has the story. >> reporter: good evening. the president wrapped up a live

webcast with democrats. they are caucusing tonight. they sort of laid out his election year strategy, it's going to be a tough battle ahead. he said because of iowa democrats four years ago tonight that helped him win the caucuses in a big surprise he has able to end the war in iraq. he has healthcare and wall street reform but he has a lot more he wants to get done and he needs them again to fire up the base. >> the only way we're going to be able to do that is if all of you maintain the same determination, the same energy, same drive, the same hopefulness same optimism about this wonderful country of ours as was on display four years ago. >> reporter: now the president said his main message in the campaign will be that he has gotten a lot of done but he needs four more years to get the rest of his agenda done. in early 2009 he gave an interview if he didn't turn the

economy around in three years, this would be a one-term proposition. he is now making this case to be a two-term proposition. >> megyn: ed henry, thank you. >> brett: let's turn to analysis from have an bahy. your thoughts in the results. it's in the backdrop but it's a swing state in iowa. as you look at the republican race, your thoughts? >> it's an american tradition to declare a clear winner and loser. i think there is not going to be winner. it will be a basically a photo finish. somebody is going to get a hand ideal of votes more. i think we know who the losers are and those are finishing fourth and fifth and sixth, gingrich, perry and bachmann who are going to be left after tonight thinking about what could have been.

>> megyn: senator, good to see you. i want to ask you about the turnout. it seems to be about what it was about four years ago but we're getting a lot of first time caucusgoers. does that suggest to you there is some enthusiasm among folks that never voted before to get out to the polls and cast their vote. what do you think that means for the president come reelection? >> it does suggest a level of enthusiasm. particularly i think a lot of folks are ron paul voters, that are maybe more independent. he appeals to people that are more libertarian. we have to give a tip of hat to rick santorum, that made more than 300 campaign appearances but it will hard replicating that going forward. so it does suggest enthusiasm within the republican party. flip side, there have been a lot of negative ads in iowa and all those uncommitted swing voters have been taking that in.

a glove hasn't been laid on the president. to get back to brett's question, i don't think we'll know the real winner tonight until about a week or to. two let's see who get a bump in the polls and real thing to look at is, let's see where the money starts coming in. super packs or big contributions or the internet fund-raising for someone like a ron paul. there is an old saying in presidential politics, no one has ever stopped running for president, they just run out of money. let's see who can generate the kind of money. gingrich or perry perhaps can get a second breath. i doubt it. let's see a week or two from now we'll know. >> megyn: and then they suspend their campaigns. >> brett: bill krystal, you look at the numbers and look how close it is, three right hand way race but they are not breaking the 30% mark.

romney had 28% back in 2008. now, he is at 23. this is not a great impressive win? >> i think bob dole was the winner with the lowest percentage of the vote, 26%. the turnout isn't that much either. it does suggest that the performance of santorum and romney, it does suggest the actual enthusiasm among researches isn't that great. there are some democrats that came over, most of them to vote for ron paul. actual republican turnout could be lower than last time which i think is a little worrisome if you are republican out there, gee, we would like to have a lot of enthusiasm to beat barack obama. >> megyn: stand by. >> brett: what we are watching is a combination of both the entrance poll data and real results.

as we get ready to start the top of the hour. we have some news from fox news decision desk. we're going to talk to former governor sarah palin at the beginning of the next hour about what she thinks. now, we turn to this hour. america's election headquarters, with roughly a third of the vote in, the iowa caucuses remain too close to call. with ron paul, mitt romney and sick santorum tied at the top. we are locked in an extremely tight race. it's statistically impossible to declare a winner at this point. we'll continue to update as the caucus returns come in actual votes but we cannot project a winner in this race based on the entrance poll data and actual votes coming in. >> megyn: nor are we able to project who is coming in fourth. it appears to be a horse race

between gingrich and rick perry. we can tell you bachmann will come in sixth, jon huntsman will come in seventh. who will coming in fourth between gingrich and perry we do not know even though the numbers have been showing newt gingrich around 13%, perry around 10%. it is still nonetheless too close to call. at this hour, we don't know much. >> brett: let's turn to a special guest, former alaska governor sarah palin the former vice presidential nominee for the republican party. governor palin, thanks for being here. >> thanks so much guys. >> brett: you have been vocal supporter numerous times you said positive things about rick santorum, what he is doing on the ground. at this moment, he is leading this race by a few dozen votes. your reaction to that, and do you think you are going to get

behind rick santorum publicly? >> i'm not surprised at his success tonight. he is a social conservative. that is what he is known for and a lot of iowa voters respect that. that is reflected in the caucus vote tonight. also, rick santorum is on with his policies when it comes to peace and strength in america. i've taken a hard line against iran, threatening to close down the straits of hormuss and hatred of israel. rick santorum has strong policy proposals in that respect. that doesn't surprise me. the other front runners in this race, too, strong good showings tonight. very distinct reasons, brett. romney a lot of votes go to romney, i believe that conventional wisdom he is seeing by a lot of people as most electable. you have ron paul gop may not better marginalize ron paul.

his he and his supporters that a lot of americans are war weary and we are broke. he has reached these constituencies that are concerned about default of the u.s. and has proposed solutions. so the gop had better listen to what these ron paul supporters are saying and better work with them. >> brett: governor, you are fox news contributor and analyzing this race, but you know, you have a lot of power in the republican party. i guess the question is, will you openly support rick santorum as you have done publicly now that he is likely to going to have a very good night tonight? >> i have openly supported each one of the gop candidates when it comes to the things that they're preaching and believing in and they are capable of doing when it comes to what is best for the country. all of them would be better or

any of them would be better than barack obama. we can't afford four more years of his failed socialist policies. i said good things about newt gingrich. he will continue as he goes on new hampshire and south carolina and florida to also produce good results. rick perry, too, is such a strong proponent of tenth amendment and second amendment. i respect that. i believe others are going to the next stops are going to garner from me and others a lot of positive comments. the bottom line here, brett? for me and other concerned independent patriots, bottom line we cannot afford four more years of barack obama. under obama there is no light under the tunnel for our country. we can't afford anymore of him. >> brett: so quickly, do you think romney is best positioned in the long run to take the nomination? >> there is no telling after tonight. with this close result who is in

the best position to take on barack obama. that is what the primary process is all about. iowa has done an awesome job of getting these candidates, especially the top fehr the results are being shown tonight. the strength of iowa voters are serious and tuned into what is going on. second tier as led by evidently gingrich and what he has had to put up with very negative, i think in some respects unfair shots taken at him. iowa has done a good job of vetting these folks and letting the rest of america find out who they are. the process will continue across the u.s. until we find the most ideal candidate to come up against the incumbent and beat the incumbent and get our country back on the right track. >> brett: you think congresswoman bachmann should

drop out? >> i said unless she wants to borrow a lot of money, unfortunately, unless she wants to spend her own money, i personally can't see how it's going to do a whole lot of good in many more response along the way. maybe not new hampshire, maybe not south carolina or florida but down the road, unless something really turns around for her, i don't see a way to progress her candidacy to be the top tier candidate. okay, i'm not saying that to disparage her personally so people can listen to the shots because i voice had my opinion. she has great things to offer. i am proud of her and i think she will be back in the house of representatives and we'll be thankful for her being there. >> megyn: governor rick perry watching the results.

thank you governor, for being here. you are in a race for fourth place. how do you feel about it? >> everything is fine. i tell you, it's been an exciting evening for us. ever since august 13th it's been a great ride. everybody is upbeat where we are. we have a great group of people. it's still early in the evening. there is still a lot of hope and excitement here at the share tan hotel. >> megyn: you positioned yourself in the race as one of more conservative candidates. yet when we surveyed folks at the entrance polls and asked the folks who consider themselves very conservative, who they were voting for, newt gingrich received more votes received more than you. did romney and santorum, folks that are very conservative did not wind up casting their votes for you.

what do you make of it? >> i am who i am. the conservative record will hold up against anyone on that stage. i'm not going to change anything about my life one way or the other nor am i going to change my principles. not only with the people of texas but a lot of iowans got exposed to our conservative brand of fiscal conservatism and social conservatism. we don't have any yourself to make but the votes are the votes apologize to make. >> megyn: governor you had a surge, gingrich had a surge. santorum's surge seem to have come at the right time. do you believe that he had been vetted and do you believe that once voters see more about rick santorum, that he could ultimately nonetheless take the nomination? >> well, that is going to be up to the voters. we'll let them go through the

process. everybody has to go through the vetting process. that is what this campaign is about. go to the people with your ideas and lay them out. let them decide whether or not that is the vision for america. so i'm comfortable that we laid out a real vision for america from the standpoint of fiscal conservatism. if you want to know how a person is going act in the future, look at their past. i've proud what we've done over the last 11 years in the state of texas creating more jobs. 40% of all the jobs created in 2009 to earlier this year. that is what americans are looking for is a job creator, someone who has the fiscal conservatism. great believer in the constitution and tenth amendment and that is what we'll continue to be about. >> megyn: right now it's early in the night, right now if you are fifth out of seven.

if that remains the case, are you going to stay in the race? >> number one, it's early in the evening. the idea we're going saying what we're going to be doing tomorrow. my plan is go to south carolina and continue on. >> megyn: governor rick perry, thank you, sir. >> brett: thank you, governor. steve hayes, bill krystal, welcome back juan williams. you heard the governor there. currently he is in fifth but it's a battle for fourth. what about his statement that he fights on? >> the only way it makes any sense, brett, if he sees there is an opportunity for him specifically in south carolina. if disappointing performance in iowa, i think it will be more pronounced in new hampshire. governor perry plang on his southern roots as governor of texas and he believes the heart

of the republican party is in the south. he can definitely get a better result from all the money he has in his pocket. as we noted earlier, we spent a lot of money in iowa. >> at one point in the interview of this campaign in the past tense. i think this is a man feels he made his case, bad luck. didn't catch on. >> megyn: why is it? santorum does have a fall as we've seen with the other gop candidates, a lot of guys don't believe ron paul is a serious candidate, why would somebody like governor perry, i came in fifth so it's done for me? >> well, i think we overdo this rise and fall. voters in this state have looked at it. i don't have any problem making the case in south carolina but he had a good chance to make his case here. what would be different in other states?

unless you believe there is such a regional identity among voters which i'm not so sure, they will automatically go to him in south carolina because he is governor of texas. i don't buy that. so for gingrich is not going to be viable someone will new get in and be more viable. $4 million in iowa, got 9% or 10%. he was a major candidate and get 9% or 10%, i think it should suggest he may should get out. >> most interesting response, about rick santorum. he has been hammering rick santorum all day and all night for three or four days, on earmarks and number of issues, you ask him about rick santorum and his rise and his vetting. he took the opportunity to restate his record in texas. didn't say one negative thing

about rick santorum. >> brett: internet ad, he said rick santorum was unelectable. >> megyn: he was on my show this afternoon ripping santorum. but clearly his words said one thing and body lnlz suggested something else. but this question suggests to me if he wanted to continue, if he wanted to take the fight to rick santorum, that would be his chief opponent right now if he were going on to south carolina. if he would have made that case he would have taken the opportunity to beat up rick santorum and he didn't. >> brett: couple things coming in. estimate the turnout is roughly 120,000. that is almost exactly where it was four years ago. it was 119,000 for turnout four years ago. also, some big places have not come in yet, sioux city. that seems to go for santorum but there is a battle there. it hasn't come in officially

yet. aims and story county, college towns, university of iowa and iowa state, that would tend to lean toward ron paul. but there are big population counties that have not come in yet. that is why this so fight. juan, we're waiting on the actual numbers because we can't project. it's that tight at the top. meanwhile, newt gingrich folks is sending out e-mails he is fighting no matter what. this shows that mitt vomz weak. he spent all this time campaigning, millions of dollars and can't break 30%. he says the fight goes on in new hampshire. they have a big ad in the union leader where newt gingrich goes after mitt romney. it is not over for the gingrich campaign? >> mitt romney reportedly said about newt gingrich. real numbers there.

it's not going to stop. and charles krauthammer says, newt has a history and lot is coming from fellow republicans. it's not coming from extraterrestrial source but they didn't see him reliable and undermined gingrich the in the minds of iowa voters. i expect that attitude is going to continue to persist as we go forward. this has become a national event. in the numbers you were talking about in regard to turnout, key pointed is look at the numbers. independents were bunched up. if you look at the numbers of actual republicans in 2008 versus today, fewer republicans today. the key point that all the republican strategists talk about going toward november is the higher level of intensity and ex time among republicans because they so want to defeat president obama but gingrich

can't tap in it. it's only santorum, paul is tapping into young people. >> brett: it is split. 13% for gingrich, 10% for perry, so the vote is split. you can't paint it with a broad brush and sanity way republicans are not fired up to oust president obama. >> i didn't say that. you should have seen more republican turnout today, if it's true as the strategists tell me they believe republicans have more energy because of the desire to defeat obama. >> megyn: panel stand by. we'll be back. leader board, it is a three-way race for the number one position. latest numbers, 45% reporting, rick santorum now on top. that is a change. mitt romney second. all have 24%. ron paul has 22% which would put

him obviously behind the other two. that is a change. 45% reporting and we are just guesstimates based on the entrance polls but ron paul is behind santorum and romney and nonetheless it is too close to call in iowa. >> brett: as we take a look at the legally headquarters, we're live. just got an e-mail about ron paul will arrive soon at the courtyard marriott. a significant number of young people, a crowd of about 250 and he'll speak shortly after the results are announced. guess what, we're still waiting. keep it here on fox. ♪

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>> brett: welcome back to the gorgeous state capital of des moines, iowa. the top right now bunched by just a few votes separating the top three. right now at this moment. rick santorum is topping the list but it keeps on changing as more actual vote totals come in from around the state. mitt royz is in second place and right now ron paul is in third. but we're still waiting for the crucial count of ames and also story county where there are two huge colleges. that is where ron paul gets a lot of votes. he is just back a bit, but that could change. >> megyn: he has done so well tonight with the folks that identify themselves as first time caucusgoers. as we wait for those numbers, they will very likely change.

santorum, romney, paul is the order. extremely close. as we go to the second tier, gingrich at 13% ahead of perry at 10%. that hasn't changed. michelle bchdz with 6% so far. >> brett: winning the iowa caucuses is a big step and it's not a guarantee we look at past winners and we are joined by david. he spent 34 years covering politics with "des moines register". david, welcome. wow, what a barnburner? >> what a race. it's going to the wee hours of the morning. >> brett: we were talking about turnout, 120,000 is the estimate that our decision desk is making. if you look, for example, michigan stadium, they average 111,000 fans per game.

they average there, you take a look at that stadium, that is about all of the people that are voting tonight. when you what is separated, each one of these top three, you are talking organization, getting them out. it makes a difference. >> historically, you made reference, first class coach or standby, street business class seats out of iowa. they don't get first, that is right. okay? iowa has historically li eliminated some candidates and sell elevated others. tonight iowa is doing both. bottom finish rs they may have difficult raising money. even in this result. we don't know who is going to quite finish where. rick santorum has been elevated to national prominence. he did this to jimmy carter.

nobody gave him a chance. >> megyn: jamie carter way, there was month between iowa and new hampshire and there was build-up. we have a week this time. how does it change. >> historically the outcome in iowa has had an impact in new hampshire. but it isn't the impact in the past because a candidate can't raise enough money even with the internet to get the money in and get it back out in the field and on to tv. >> brett: david, we're seeing some counties, key counties, dallas county, rom romney 32%. dubuque, 33%, outperforming where he was in 2008. johnson county, poul paul 36%, polk county, 25%.

how do you see the race shaping up? >> you mentioned earlier, story county, i would expect it look like johnson county. so i think it would be good return for ron paul. >> brett: we're getting word half the vote in. fox news that newt gingrich will finish fourth and perry will finish fifth. fox projected that michelle bachmann will finish second here. meanwhile, the top two candidates are still bunched at the top and we can't make a call there. we can project at this moment that newt gingrich will finish fourth in this race and rick perry will finish fifth. >> megyn: david, historically, people who have lost iowa how have had he fared in securing

the nomination? >> most of the time, nominee has always come out of top three finishers, with one exception that was john mccain. you want to look at the top three finishers because historically they have been the nominee. iowa is not a predictor. it's the start of the process and not the whole process. other states will have something to say about this. it has elevated rick santorum again just as it did jimmy carter, gary hart, people that are in obscurity and elevate them. rick santorum has emerged as a serious leader because of this. that is significant development. >> brett: more than 300 stops, just a handful of people. one had one guy. with 300 stops that is amazing. >> i think it's neat that a

candidate can still do it that way. we talk a lot about the ads and a lot of money. here is a guy that did it the old-fashioned way. >> megyn: and impact of the debates that is why many believe newt gingrich made the surge. rick santorum said he didn't get enough attention but it seems to work already okay. people are looking at santorum it's not like iowa, he has gone to south carolina but it's impossible for a candidate to win on a state by state basis? >> as the panel mentioned earlier, rick santorum would like to be the only guy running against mitt romney. if he can get this race into that position we'll have much more different race going into other states. he can't replicate but he can raise money, he he'll get a ton

of media attention. >> brett: super pack? >> yes. >> megyn: wanted to give you a shot of decision desk. these are the folks that are trying to make the call, as we've been telling you it's too close. these folks unlike brett and myself are good at math. we can't get any real numbers it's just too close. all we know so far is that bachmann will finish sixth. huntsman, seventh. gingrich fourth and perry fifth. stay tuned. so at least, gingrich, perry, bachmann and perry, now get back to work. we'll be back live from des moines. nce teacher helped us build it. ♪ now i'm a geologist at chevron, and i get to help science teachers. it has four servo motors and a wireless microcontroller. over the last three y we've put nearly 100 million dollars

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look at the numbers there. especially when you consider that some of the counties still out probably could fall ron paul's way which would make it tighter. three way race. rick santorum at this hour leading. if you think about where he has been, he was leading with 46% iowa caucuses reporting this hour. >> megyn: it's remarkable. since we have come to iowa, see how they do it. go out and how to persuade iowans. i was at romney event, 50 people. that is how they do it. one at a time. now, you see why. every vote matters. it could come down to 50 that we talked to this morning. >> brett: think of people the surrogates and made this final pitch. some of them were high profile surrogates, like anne romney and some of the candidates made the pitch. you put your campaign in the hands of some guy who some county and he makes a bad pitch,

it could cost you few votes. >> megyn: they talked about, does anybody want to speak on behalf of michelle bachmann. there was an awkward pause. one guy stood up and said i'll do it. she came in last. the lack of enthusiasm can undermine you in the caucus sites. it's still too close to call. gingrich, perry, bachmann at the bottom of the board. that is all we can tell you. hey, kris. >> chris: earlier you had ed rollins on and when he left off camera he was saying, karl rove is the best numbers guy that i've ever seen in politics. this is an example of karl rove's handy work, he has been going over this. district, county by county, trying to figure out.

46% of the vote is in. 54 of the vote hasn't been counted yet the question is where is that 54% going to come from and where it is going to go. you have been going county by county comparing where it was in 2008. what are you seeing. >> i talked about dubuque and how important it is for santorum. he is doing well everywhere, but he is not doing as well in dubuque as he could have. >> chris: heavily roman catholic area? >> a place that on romney won last time and he is doing it by ten points over santorum. it's been so tight, there is about 200 votes we think that carl and i looked a at it that romney can pick out of dubuque and close that 390 vote lead that santorum has in about half.

and then, it gets tricky. >> chris: 54% of the vote is not kouchbtd. where is it? >> polk county. there is at least 10,000 votes and the candidates, paul 25, santorum, 24, romney, 23. it's one or two large precincts or caucus meetings could swing it one way or the other. there is another county, story county that is ames iowa slightly east of des moines. they haven't counted any votes. >> chris: that is where iowa state is. we would think that would be paul territory. >> huckabee got 40% of the vote four years ago. romney got 23. the question is how much does it go to santorum and how much to paul. does romney keep his 23%. >> chris: on the western ridge. >> this is the interesting part. there are six counties in the western part of the state.

one was won by huckabee, five were won by rosmz. in five of the counties, no votes in, in one 31%. i think at the end of the day whoever wins the majority of the votes in those five counties is going to win. >> chris: that is an interesting thing, that part of the state on the far western side, romney did well in 2008, but on the other hand it's socially conservative. you might think santorum could conceivably beat them? >> further south you get the more sort of economic conservative because it's orientated towards omaha. last time, romney ran a lot of tv got through the voters. >> chris: the who is going to win?

>> think santorum, if i -- based on ouije board but he could sneak it out. >> he could eke it out but a couple big caucus meetings in polk county. there are so many people and it might tip it slightly. >> chris: tip it to romney. >> but i suspect romney and santorum, santorum and romney are going to be up there. 1,000 votes and most behind is ron paul. big gap of a lot of votes between the third place finisher which i think will be paul and gingrich and perry and bachmann. >> chris: i wanted to thank you both. megyn and brett they have done these numbers, they have made them. here we go again. at the end, one guy says it's going to be santorum and other guy says it's going to be

romney. too close to call. [ laughter ] >> megyn: you'll love this, chris. month he said move the computer. that is our problem in seeing those numbers. the computer is blocking the graphics. >> they are doing it the old-fashioned way. [ laughter ] >> graphics dpept department is eclectic. >> brett: primary in south carolina is less than two weeks way. mark sanford is a fox news contributor. governor, thanks for being here. what are your thoughts? >> i think it's interesting but it's going to get more interesting come south carolina. we'll see something coming out of iowa and lots of people see new hampshire is romgz and it will be wild west when it comes to south carolina. >> brett: governor perry's

campaign said they have purchased ad time in south carolina. we've confirmed he will come here nistsdz iowa. do you think he compete until south carolina? >> i think so. because as i say, everybody made the analysis of iowa, it seems to be an election that is not following the traditional rule of enthusiasm. i don't think anybody gets out after tonight. it sounds like bachmann is coming to south carolina, perry is coming to south carolina. gingrich is ticked off on romney based on the super pack ads. he'll be coming to new hampshire and quickly come to south carolina. i don't think anybody is getting out. i think it's very different complexion. a couple things that will distinguish south carolina. first, it's the real test of

vote. if you look at unemployment in iowa, 6%. south carolina it is almost 10 percent. national average is 8.6%. i think south carolina will be the first real test to people's angst about the economy. i think it will be a test as well for the super pack. you were to buy statewide missions south carolina it will run you $300,000 minus the charlotte market. you try it in florida, it will run you $2 million. it will be a legally test for a lot of the folks coming in, candidates themselves but the super packs testing messages against each other here in this state. >> brett: last thing, governor. governor haley is down there. he has endorsed mitt romgz. the picture you were -- pomz. but south carolina becomes the superbowl, anti-mitt romney candidate and that is where all

these candidates who hope to be the person, it looks like rick santorum is going to have a boost along that road. that is where they fight. do you think that is the battle? >> i do believe it is. again, i think this will be the superbowl. frankly, in many ways historically it has been. if you look at the last 30 years south carolina has picked the ultimate republican nominee. so they have good history. first of the bigger states. if you look at the numbers outright vote numbers in iowa caucuses or new hampshire, they are relative in terms, south carolina is about four times the size in terms of total number. so it's a little bigger state. it has the mix of social conservatives but it has a mix of military both active duty and retired as well as whole host of retirees from other parts of the country. i think it will turn out to be

the superbowl test with regard who is in best standing ultimately for the nomination but certainly to go on to nevada and florida. >> brett: governor sanford, thank you very much. as you painted the picture, we have the first south carolina debate during this time ahead of the south carolina primary monday, january 16th in myrtle beach. that will be interesting. coverage 9:00 p.m. interesting right here on fox news. >> megyn: coming up, we'll check in on the gingrich campaign headquarters. and also michelle bachmann expected to make remarks. after the break. bill hemmer. i'm trading everywhere...

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gingrich headquarters here in des moines. we expect the former speaker of the house to speak shortly. we'll take that live right here. right now top tier, top three, we have a real horse race. mitt romney horse is in the lead. 24,6726 votes. 25%. rick sarnlz, 24,134, and ron paul, 21,000, he slipped a bit. this is 81% reporting. we're getting to a point where each one of these caucus sites and counties makes a difference in the vote totals here. you are talking about a 500 vote spread between mitt romney and rick santorum first and secondly at this hour. >> megyn: would have thought that rick santorum playing third base over there. f you put the one with the least votes, on the soud outside.

>> he would have thought it. >> megyn: really. he kept saying it but it was tough to predict. so far very good night for rick santorum. as far as the second tier, gingrich beating rick perry, speaker gingrich would consider that a victory. rick perry says he is going forward and michelle bachmann coming in sixth. want to get to brit hume who is in the washington bureau. i want to ask you about an unusual thing in iowa. the supervisor of elections allowed us to talk about the votes, basically when the voting started. we would predict pretty early that bachmann was going to come in last. how may that have played in terms of folks that may were going to vote for her instead of santorum or instead of romney. does that take votes away.

>> brit: maybe. you have to figure most of the people were in the middle of the caucuses themselves. most of the people had made decisions. i suppose it could have swayed votes one way or the other. i doubt it would have made any real difference in the outcome. suppose she got 8%, she is still in dire straits. my guess, i don't think she has anywhere to go from here. >> megyn: it's not it would have propelled michelle bachmann to a victory. but folks saying i don't want to vote bachmann because it hurt. but i'm going to vote for somebody else. does it hurt romney? >> theoretically it could. we have to know how much is being reported during the caucuses themselves from the tv news and other broadcasts and

other news sources are filtering in. we don't know that. it's hard to assess that but theoretically could. >> brett: brit, mitt romney won a county. santorum 28% of the vote. in 2008, romney received 34% of vote in plymouth county and huckabee got 25%. santorum out per forming huckabee back then and romney under performing romney in 2008. as you look county by county, what are you seeing about the romney performance tonight compared to where he was in 2008. >> brit: let's bear in mind about the romney performance. except for the past week he did have good organizational efforts he didn't campaign that hard. none of us would have been surprised up to am in about week or temp days if romney was lower 18, 20%.

so i think romney coming through this everything to have the breakout performance that creates the momentum where everybody says okay, it's going to be romney and everybody flocks towards him. he didn't get that tonight. i think he coming through where he was. in reasonably good shape. santorum i think is your story. >> brett: brit, as always, thank you very much. seven counties remain and nobody is over 33%. the one county that is really big is sioux city, a city in which sioux city where we held our last debate. that is still out there. that could be decider tonight because it's a big county with a lot of votes. >> megyn: we await that and remarks from speaker gingrich and michelle bachmann and more from the panel after the break. stay with us.

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>> megyn: welcome back to des moines, iowa where we are watching results coming in and remains too close to call with 88% of the precincts, rick santorum is now in the lead at 25%. mitt romney so close behind at 25% and it's 26,398 for romney. ron paul trailing at 22,728.

he has 21%. it's neck and neck between santorum and romney but we await the remaining 12%. >> brett: second tier, you see newt gingrich will coming in fourth in this race at 13%. rick perry fifth. there you see michelle bachmann in sixth. there are still seven counties officially out there. some of the vote totals are coming in, but they are not officially finished with their counting. we just got sioux county which is far northwestern iowa. it went to rick santorum, 943 votes, romney 299, perry, 297, woodbury county, that is where sioux city that is still out there. we don't have results there. that could move the ball either way. >> megyn: you can bet mitt romney is watching that closely

because sioux city is in woodbury county. that is the county in which romney did well last night. he netted more than 500 votes more than any other county. if he repeats that performance it could be good news given the tightness of the race between romney and santorum. >> brett: remember at the debate folks said they want to see more candidates. they weren't getting enough attention. now you are getting the attention sioux city because we're waiting on this vote and it could decide this are race. as we look live to the newt gingrich headquarters, former speaker of the house newt gingrich is expected to talk very soon. we will bring it to you live here on fox news channel, america's election headquarters.

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