>> we're just chatting amongst ourselves here. we have a lot to discuss at 5:00 a.m. in the morning. good morning, everyone. it's wednesday, january 4, 2012. wake up! i'm gretchen carlson. it was a record turnout and a real nail biter but just a few hours ago, the race was officially called. mitt romney is the winner in iowa but only by eight votes over rick santorum. >> this is a campaign night where america wins. we're gonna change the white house and get america back on track. >> next stop, next week in new hampshire. >> meanwhile, speaking of new hampshire, rick santorum wasted no time heading to the granite state this morning. >> game on!

>> can rick ride his recent wave of popularity to victory? that's the big question. >> he does get our writers cold open mvp, though, for that line. but for rick perry, it's back to texas. >> game off. >> i decided to return to texas, assess the results of tonight's caucus, determine whether there is a path forward for myself in this race. >> when you say that, there's no path forward. more on the shrinking g.o.p. field, perhaps. "fox & friends" starts, you've heard me, now. >> hi, this is rick santorum. >> hi, this is newt gingrich. >> this is congresswoman michelle bachmann. >> this is herman cain. >> this is governor rick perry of the great state of texas and you're watching "fox & friends." >> yep. and the -- >> during happier times, a rick perry. >> no kidding, they all come to "fox & friends" and you're here this morning. we're up early to give you the news. gretch just gave it to you. it is mitt romney by eight.

>> amazing. when we get up to get ready, we're usually in repeats so at 2:30 a.m. i'm thinking to myself who won? why doesn't bret baier get to the verdict here? >> why is he still live? >> why is the crawl not revealing who won? they couldn't figure it out. it was santorum by four for the longest time. let's look at the totals. this is not a misprint. romney wins with 30,015 votes. >> santorum is second with 30,007. is that really official? >> yeah, it is. >> two weeks, it's official. >> two weeks until they totally decide. eight votes, whoever can ever say again, your one little personal vote doesn't count at least in an iowa caucus. eight votes separate the top two. i mean, obviously, they both can claim victory. mitt romney probably never expected to win iowa until about the last 10 days when he really started campaigning hard there. and rick santorum did it exactly in the opposite fashion.

retail politics visiting every single person almost in 99 counties across iowa with very little cash. two completely different campaigns both at the top. >> sure, had mitt romney, he visited the state only nine times. had he visited only two times, he might have won by a more substantial margin. nonetheless, both the winner, mitt romney by 8 and rick santorum who lost by eight but is going to obviously claim victory, they both made their -- effectively took their victory lap before officially knowing. we got some sound from last night if you missed it. first up, here's rick santorum talking about the current president of the united states and how he treats blue collar americans. >> we have -- >> it's coming. >> we have people who can go out to western pennsylvania and ohio and michigan and indiana and wisconsin and iowa and missouri and appeal to the voters that have been left behind by a

democratic party that wants to make them dependent instead of valuing their work. we will win this election. those are the same people that president obama talked about who cling to their guns and their bibles. thank god they do. they share our values about faith and family. they understand that when the family breaks down, the economy struggles. they understand when families aren't there to instill values into their children and into their neighbors as little league coaches, as good neighbors, of fathers and mothers being part of a community that the neighborhood is not safe and they are not free. these are the basic values that americans stand for and those are the values that we need if we're gonna go up against barack obama and win this election and restore the founding principles of our country to america.

>> we have the fox nfl spot shadow. i looked at bob vander plaats and think about the power he said. then he says this time, rick santorum you're my pick. and santorum goes from 3% of the vote to getting 25% of the vote. overall, when you look at the vote percentage, mitt romney actually gets less than the last time around and when you look at the overall percentage, it's the lowest total in the history of the republican caucus. because 26%, bob dole had that dubious record in 1996. that is now beaten. does it show an even field, a talented field or does it show that they just don't know in iowa? >> yes, and lowest percentage per candidate at the top. however, record turnout of people who actually came out to vote in the caucus. so it's an interesting dichotomy there. i think it shows once again what we've been seeing throughout this entire campaign season which has been going on now for about six to eight months which

is republicans keep not changing their -- they keep changing their mind, not sure about exactly who they like. i'm not sure we know even yet. moving to new hampshire, romney is going to take that, i would guess, but south carolina and florida, those are going to be the two battleground states moving forward in january. and here's mitt romney. >> he's on track to put almost as much public debt in place as all the prior presidents combined. this has been a failed presidency. and i'm absolutely convinced that if we want to get jobs in this country, it's going to be helpful to have a person who had a job in the private sector to create jobs. he said three years ago after being inaugurated he was on "the today show" and he said look, if i can't get this economy turned around in three years, i'll be looking at a one term proposition and we are here to collect! >> so mitt romney was kind of pumped up yesterday. at that point, i think steve he was down by about four votes, right? >> right. >> he had to say to himself, listen, i'm one or two, i have to make a speech and i have to

get some rest and head to new hampshire tomorrow and that's where he is today. he got some other news, john mccain does not like senator rick santorum. remember they went at it when it came to detainees and what type of punishment they could go under in water boarding. they went after each other personally. santorum backed off eventually. as much as senator mccain shows disdain for mitt romney in 2008, he'll make it official today. meet me in new hampshire, i'm going to endorse you, mitt. that could mean a lot. >> you have the top two finishers, mitt and rick and you have the other candidates who you can see the writing on the wall for michelle bachmann to be asked by bob vander plaats to get out as he did last night and for him to say i'm going back to texas to reassess things, the concession speeches last night were heartfelt. listen. >> rick santorum, he waged a

great positive campaign. i served with rick, we've had a great relationship over the years, and i admire the courage, the discipline, the way he focused and he also admire how positive he was. i wish i could say that for all the candidates. >> once again, we haven't had a fantastic showing for this cause and challenging people not the status quo that we have been putting up with for decades after decades but challenging them in saying let's challenge them and let's go back to this real old-fashioned idea. this very dangerous idea. let's obey the constitution! >> with the voters' decision tonight in iowa, i decided to return to texas, assess the results of tonight's caucus, determine whether there is a path forward for myself in this race. >> i believe that i am that true conservative who can and who

will defeat barack obama in 2012. the pundits and the press will again try to pick the nominee based on tonight's results but there are many more chapters to be written on the path to our party's nomination and i'd prefer to let the people of the country decide who will represent us. >> so the interesting thing now is will michelle bachmann, rick perry, drop out of the race? the bachmann campaign manager last night said he wasn't so sure. he said it's hard to tell but everything is planned. remember yesterday when we interviewed congresswoman bachmann on this show, she said she already had bought her plane tickets for south carolina so wait and see. it sounds pretty much like rick perry is going back to texas and may be making an announcement forthcoming. >> and with michelle bachmann, she was on our program yesterday and she was emphatic, look, despite what the campaign manager might be saying, she said look, we're going to south carolina. we've already paid for our ticket. >> that's true, too. but i watched -- >> let's hope they're refundable. >> true. but i watched ed rollins last night who was running his

campaign and bowed out like six months ago and joined us after bowing out of another network and he says she doesn't have any money to go ahead. i don't know how she can go ahead. great retail politician, can outwork anyone, impressive credentials and a fine candidate but essentially saying it's through, she's done. now, i think personally that mitt romney likes a wide field. i don't think mitt romney wants a smaller -- >> we'll ask him in a little while. he doesn't want to be just focused against one other guy. as long as the field is wide and when it was ron paul and rick and mitt all together, he had two opponents. now that it's just one, as you head into new hampshire, is it going to make a difference? not in new hampshire. >> because mitt romney, it's going to be a blowout for him. >> the opponent he does not want is newt gingrich. that's one person he doesn't want to go up against. many are saying he's the most

formidable force against mitt romney right now. newt gingrich is beating mitt romney 31% to something in the teens. now, maybe that changes when south carolina goes and does another poll today after iowa. but i think that that is the man right there on your screen that mitt romney still fears the most at least in the south. >> listen, newt is so angry and he made it clear last night in which our reporter said was a dead speech. there was no cheering. there was nothing. you could easily spin that positive. they just couldn't do it or chose not to for the gingrich campaign. they've already taken out back page ads in new hampshire newspapers. they've already taken out ads and posted them in florida and south carolina just attacking mitt romney. that's it. going after mitt romney. mitt romney's camp is actually running anti-mitt things in florida already. >> we'll have mitt romney and ron paul on this here four-hour program this morning. so put down the clicker because we got a big day and we start with some headlines. >> the mother of the prime suspect in a wave of arson fires

in los angeles says her son is mentally ill. dorothy burkhart repeatedly demanded to see her son as she arrived yesterday. she's facing charges unrelated to his case and had no clue he had been arrested and charged with setting more than 50 fires in the hollywood area. he's expected to be arraigned today. his mother who reportedly runs an exotic massage business faces deportation to germany where she's reported for not paying for breast enlargement surgery. two bomb scares on a new york bound flight. the plane diverted last night after someone abandoned the phones in the plane's bathroom. no one claimed them. the pilot landed immediately. later, a passenger fessed up to forgetting the phones. that person was questioned by the feds. no charges were filed. we told you about this yesterday, the murder at queen elizabeth's estate. they're digging in past cold

cases linking a connection to the woman found dead on new year's day. the body could have been lying in the woods for up to four months. those are the headlines this morning. >> the plot thickens. 13 minutes after the hour. if exceeding expectations is the key to success, then how did the candidates do from a to z? our super panel is here to break down the race right after the break. >> that's right. what are they doing? they're up with us. then nobody injured during this armed robbery. not even that guy. just call him the bandage bandit. >> we'll be back. [♪...]

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>> 16 minutes after the top of the hour. mitt romney edging out a victory over rick santorum in iowa last night. did he exceed expectations? or do exactly what was expected? here to weigh in this morning, our political panel bright and early, christopher hahn, former aide to chuck schumer in new york and fox news contributor, joe trippe, former campaign manager to howard dean's presidential campaign and fox news contributor, didi benke, former aide to president george w. bush's re-election campaign. good morning to all three of you. or for those who haven't gone to bed. that would be you, joe. in your honor, let's start with you. the expectations that people had for mitt romney always seen as the frontrunner on the g.o.p.

side but only garnering 25% of the vote and winning by eight votes. did he meet expectations? did he exceed them? were they lower than expected? >> look, i don't think he had a very good night. you know, the night belongs to rick santorum. on the other hand, the one thing that did happen for mitt romney last night, he got -- he got santorum and ron paul coming out of iowa which means he's got a fractured field which is what he wants. and he wants gingrich to stay in and he'd love perry to stay in. he wants as many of these guys to stay in as he can. and he got that last night. the result helped that happen for him. i think it was actually a good night for romney even though he didn't meet expectations. >> didi, mitt romney wants newt gingrich to stay in the race? >> you know, mitt romney had a great night. so did rick santorum and so did iowa. big night for the g.o.p. and, you know, the democrats don't want mitt romney to be the candidate so, you know, i'm sure you're going to lower expectations. no, because he's the one who is most qualified and most -- has the best ability. >> he also flips more -- >> i know you're going to say

the flip thing. >> he also flips more than mary lou retton on the bars, ok? i mean, the guy is a flip-flop artist. >> i don't think i'm going to win, i don't think i should stay there. >> let's talk about republican nomination first. he wants the others to stay in because he wants a fractured vote because only 25% of republicans want him to be the nominee. they don't trust him. the guy -- >> doesn't that percentage go up for mitt romney if there are fewer people in the field? >> no, that's the -- his fear has to be if anybody gets him one on one, another 75% like those bachmann people, perry people might start consolidating around somebody else. >> the moderate one in iowa, that's the big deal, huge deal for him. and then he's going to win in new hampshire and, you know, that's the first time. >> like he did four years ago. >> in history. >> i don't know if you can do that comparison, what you just said, joe, because there were more people at the top of the heap than there were last time around, four years ago and i do think that it is a good night

for mitt romney because he hardly campaigned in iowa. he basically wrote it off until 10 days ago. >> he spent $10 million to rick santorum's money. anybody who has watched me on fox with rick santorum know i really don't like rick santorum but you got to give him credit. the guy worked really hard and basically won that state on his feet. he was very good last night. his speech last night was phenomenal. if he keeps that up, he's going to give them fits for the next couple of no, sir. >> do you agree with that? >> he was great. he turned to iowa and put the sweater vest on, the chicken shack, the pizza palace and the corn dog cut and all of them. you know, he was -- all politics is local. they love him. he's a clean living guy in a clean living state. good for him. >> he's got a blue collar background next to mitt romney's, you know, blue blood background that i think will play very well in south carolina. it will play very well in new hampshire. >> also pro business. not part of d.c. >> new hampshire when we look forward, everybody is saying it's a foregone conclusion that mitt romney will walk away with

this. do you think it will suddenly change? >> i think that's a huge mistake to believe that. i think romney makes a big mistake if he acts that way or feels that way. no, what's wrong here is this exposed how weak a front runner romney is and every time a party's got somebody in the front who is weak. >> right. >> the problem is the rest of the voters start to consolidate around an opponent and that's what's going to happen in new hampshire. >> you could argue, though, that a lot of voters consolidated around mitt romney. >> of course! >> the same argument he makes for why he can't be beat. they know who he is. he was governor of massachusetts. he lived in that market for eight years. >> but they loved him there! >> he had high expectations. high expectations. >> you got a lot to say for 5:00 a.m. and you're going to stick around to talk more. they're going to talk about this. are we seeing history repeat itself when president clinton, bob dole and ross perot fought for the white house? they're going to tackle that one. wake up, america, you're about to pay more for your morning cup

of joe but how much more? stick around.

>> got some quick headlines live from new york at 24 minutes after the hour. united states has reportedly made a deal with the taliban agreeing "in principle to release taliban officials being held currently at gitmo. in return, afghan insurgents agreed to open a political office for peace negotiations in the country of cutter. and colorado's christian university is suing the federal government over obamacare. the school says it forces it to go against its religious beliefs by requiring it to offer

contraceptives. gretch, back to you and the panel. >> let's go back in time to 1996. during that year, president clinton, g.o.p. nominee bob dole and populous candidate ross perot fought for the white house. with ron paul's popularity growing, could 2012 play out like 1996? our political panelist back to weigh in. is ron paul going to be a third party candidate? >> i don't think so. i think there's a lot of reasons. he wants to stay in congress. he likes being on the national stage and i think he doesn't want to risk it. he wants to stay and kind of help the republican party and his son rand paul has a career in the senate. >> do you agree with that? >> i totally agree and i'm very thankful that ron paul said he won't run as a third party candidate because it would give us a problem. >> people -- come on now. politicians say things and totally change their minds and do different things. >> i hope they don't! >> is he going to do it? >> no, i don't think he will. i think rand paul's career, his son's career steps into the way there a little bit.

i think he'll want to get out of the way and not harm him within the republican party by leaving the party to run as an independent. >> you believe there will be some sort of third party candidate. >> absolutely, there will be a third party candidate. donald trump is somebody i'd be worried about. he has the ability to appeal to blue collar democrats as well as conservative -- fiscal conservative republicans and republicans. >> i'd worried more about trump if i had a show on another network at the same time as "the apprentice" but i don't think he's running for anything other than another season for "the apprentice. ">> do you agree that he could take away some of the democrats? the prevailing thought about this if donald trump gets into the race, he'll take away the republican vote. >> he lost all credibility with the democrats. that's it. there's a small portion of the republican party that still likes him. >> a lot of people follow donald trump. and -->> i like donald trump! i'm a big fan!

>> and it's not an ideological thing and that's, i think, a problem that somebody -- look, i think a lot of the republicans call him and try to get him the support every day because they're worried that he's -- they're worried about him. they're worried he'll run as an independent and be a problem. >> so as a republican, if the choice was between mitt romney or donald trump, then you -- that would be convuluted for you. >> it would be tough. i love donald trump. i think he's fantastic. i like his opinions, like what he does. i like what he says. he's got some great ideas. but, you know, i'm a republican. i'm going to go with mitt romney so i'm going to really, you know, beg donald trump and try to get the entire party to say we need your help. not as the candidate. not as the independent candidate. it would hurt us. >> people forget that perot went ahead of clinton. clinton fell into third place and perot started eating democratic party votes, something no one thought perot could do because once a major

party candidate falls below the independent, people can then start looking at the incumbent and saying to beat him, i got to go with donald trump or whoever the independent is. >> there is that american -- the american elect party line is out there. they can have somebody on both tickets, one republican and one democrat to run as a third party candidate. we'll see if that actually happens this year and if it happens with legitimate contenders. it might be somebody on the fringe of both parties that wants to get in and make a bigger name for themselves. >> or the independent vote that more and more people are registering as independent. >> last night, it was the g.o.p. victory. >> didi sums it up for us out of iowa. thanks for getting up bright and early. >> thanks for having me. >> one of the president's closest advisors calling romney's win "pathetic." we're going to report and you can decide. is it a brilliant disguise or the dumbest thing you've ever seen? check out that guy about to walk through the door. where is he? details on the bandage bandit next. you have to stick around and see

what he looks like.

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>> and you are working and i am working and we're working together because of our passion for this country and our concern that it's being led by a president who may be a nice guy but just is over his head. and you look -- i mean, i look at his campaign, you know, four years ago tonight, he was giving a victory celebration speech here in des moines. and he'd been going across the state making all sorts of promises. gap between his promises four years ago and his performance is as great as anything i've seen in my life. >> ok, there you got mitt romney talking about four years ago. let's fast forward to last

night. if you're waking up wondering who won, it was a squeaker both with 25% of the vote but if you look really carefully, you can see that mitt romney has eight more votes than rick santorum. this morning, they are both declaring themselves big winners and they are. >> and it's off to new hampshire. if you're talking about a team that's poised to do well in new hampshire it's mitt romney. if you have rick santorum, it's a remarkable story and an incredible surge. political experts will be talking about it for decades. where does he go from here? will he get the surge of cash to allow him to compete in south carolina? new hampshire may be too late but in florida, too. you have ron paul very pleased to have this 21%. he has one of the three tickets coming out of iowa. somebody tell that to newt gingrich who had 13% but seemed like he was at a funeral yesterday in saying i'm going to move on to new hampshire. >> see, i don't know if we will write about these surges for decades. we might write about all the republicans we have seen surged who are not named mitt romney

but will this surge for santorum stay. that's the thing. how many have we gone through now? michelle bachmann started it with winning the iowa straw poll. then we went to herman cain. then we went to newt gingrich. forgot rick perry. then we went to rick santorum. will they actually -- will rick santorum now stay on top or will he just be a fleeting moment at the top? >> right. when you go -- >> from the papers today in philadelphia, some of the people in the philadelphia daily news who don't like him on the editorial page already vetting him and that's something that hasn't really happened to rick santorum because he was the last person to surge. now, this morning, as people wake up and he's got 25% of the vote, they're going to go through his record and start talking and it will begin with how he lost his re-election by 18 points. >> right. let's talk about what the democrats are going. the president of the united states is being ignored because there's no one to fight against and therefore, yesterday, he did a web conference where he had some questions and talked about iowa and all his accomplishments and his -- and another one of

his minions, you want to hear that right now? let's hear a little bit from the president. >> because of those caucuses four years ago, we ended the war in iraq as promised and our troops are now coming home. because of the work that so many of you did even before the caucuses four years ago, health care is a reality for millions of americans and the seniors have seen the price of prescription drugs lowered and there are two million young americans that were able to keep their insurance even if they're not getting it through a job. >> i think the main message we'll have in 2012 is that we've done a lot but we've got a lot more to do. and that's why we need another four years to get it all done. >> oh, boy. >> you know what i take out of that? look at how much president barack obama has changed in looks from three years ago. much more receding hairline, gray, much grayer.

wow, that's what happens. >> webcast, though. >> i'm saying he looks completely different than he did when he was running for president. let's take a look -- >> just back from vacation, too. >> bill burton who used to work for him who now staffs one of his campaigns organizationsaid this -- despite mitt romney's $14 million bet to win the iowa caucuses by promising to eviscerate medicare and implement a divisive immigration policy, he could do no better than limp to a pathetic finish that didn't even beat his 2008 results. coming out swinging. they continue to attack pretty much only mitt romney on the republican side. >> yeah. and that's what you would expect them to say and that's probably what debbie wasserman-schultz, the chairwoman of the dnc will tell gretchen when she sits down with her at 7:20 eastern time. you won't want to miss that. >> all right. so the battle continues that will be in new hampshire. they will be there almost right away. also, he went on to bill burton

going to every opportunity that he needs the hispanic vote. >> speaking of new hampshire, brian. the g.o.p. presidential candidates will now try to win over voters in new hampshire if they haven't been won over already. they will cast their votes on tuesday but will all the candidates show up? live in manchester this morning with more on the fight for new hampshire, good morning, molly. it's finally coming your way. >> yes indeed and this is it. this is the big new hampshire primary where the voters go to the polls as individuals and they spend a lot of time out there listening to the candidates when they show up here and the candidates have spent a lot of time over the last year plus appealing to voters in the granite state and they're headed this way. mitt romney, rick santorum on the plane, newt gingrich all headed this way to appeal to the voters and jon huntsman has already been on the ground here. he's hoping to pull off something similar to what mccain did in 2008, sort of skip iowa and have a big victory here, whether or not he'll manage to do that, we have yet to see. january 10th is the day, of course, when the voters head to the polls. the four candidates that will be

really crisscrossing the state today will be covering quite a bit of ground. they'll be in manchester, the town hall events are being held and you guys touched a very important part of the race that we'll be seeing develop over the next couple of days in particular is rick santorum's tremendous finish out in iowa. he will be under the gun here in new hampshire, some of the voters that, perhaps, didn't really think of him before or -- and those conservative voters here in new hampshire which make up a really sliver of the population compared to the social conservatives we see in iowa, we'll be giving him another look so he'll be a little bit under the gun but the groundwork starts today for the final stretch. back to you. >> all right, molly. thank you very much for the live report from very chilly new hampshire. >> as people flip over that newspaper in new hampshire, they'll see an attack ad from newt gingrich so at least he's going to show up there. >> that's right. more on politics in a little bit. but right now, moving on to the headlines. the deadly crime spree of a modern bonnie and clyde comes to an end.

angela atwood and logan mcfarland were busted thanks to the watchful eye of an airplane pilot. he spotted them walking in a remote area of nevada. they're accused of murdering an elderly utah couple and shooting a woman in nevada. atwood's parents say their daughter was forced to go along with his crimes. >> i talked to her twice and she hung up on me and then i called again and the guy answered and he was getting smart with me. and i told him that i might come looking for him and he said i was going to be looking down a scope of a gun. >> great! and the parents of both say their children are on drugs. >> tragic new information about that deadly mansion fire in connecticut that took the life of a woman's three children and her parents. we knew that embers taken out of the fireplace caused the deadly blaze. now according to a "new york post" exclusive report, those embers were removed because the children were afraid they would

hurt santa claus coming down the chimney. the girl's mother and her boyfriend, the only ones to survive. >> all right. forget wake up and smell the coffee. wake up and feel the price hike at starbucks. the coffee giant jacking up prices by 1% adding $0.10 to the cost of a tall cup of joe. the reason -- the rising prices of coffee beans. the rising prices of milk and fuel. i guess to pick up the milk. the price hike now in effect in new york, boston, washington and across the south -- across the south, prices are staying the same in florida and california because starbucks hit those states with increases last fall. >> meanwhile, talk about getting a bad rap. police in montgomery county, maryland, looking for a guy they call the bandage bandits. see that guy right there? surveillance video shows the guy walking into a cvs pharmacy looking at a mummy with a bandage and a sling. police say he robbed the place

at gun point making out with an undisclosed amount of prescription drugs. not clear if the guy was actually hurt or if he was just using the bandages as a clever disguise. >> when we come back this morning, one of the biggest flops of 2011 and why it cost you the taxpayers big. >> plus the truth can hurt. frank luntz returns with new advice for the g.o.p. candidates now that the results are in including three of them, he says, should call it quits!

>> all right. it's a quarter before 6:00 a.m. eastern time. if you're just waking up, here's the big news. mitt romney beats out rick santorum in iowa by eight votes. jennifer davis is live in des moines with a wrapup of what happened last night there in the state capital and across the state. good morning to you, jennifer. >> good morning, you know. they say every vote counts. it sounds like a cliche but that's certainly true here this morning. as you mentioned, this was a true nail biter. mitt romney, rick santorum were neck and neck nearly all night long until very early this morning when romney did eke out the narrowest of victories by as

you just mentioned just eight votes. he congratulated rick santorum and then turned his attention to president obama. here's what he had to say. >> and you were working and i am working and we're all working together because of our passion for this country and our concern that it's being led by a president who may be a nice guy but just is over his head. and you look -- i mean, i look at his campaign -- you know, four years ago tonight, he was giving a victory celebration speech here in des moines and he had been going across the state making all sorts of promises. >> what wins in america are bold ideas, sharp contrasts and a plan that includes everyone. >> hey, this momentum is going to continue and this movement is going to continue and we are going to keep scoring just as we have tonight. >> ron paul supporters very happy with his third place finish. newt gingrich came in fourth. rick perry fifth. he says he's going to texas to

reassess his campaign but at this point, everybody else says they are still in the race. most candidates at this point heading to new hampshire. that's where this contest moves now. michelle bachmann, though, will head to south carolina ready to battle it out in the primary down there. live in des moines, i'm jennifer davis, back to you guys. >> thank you very much. brian, frank talk? >> with the results finally in for last night's iowa caucuses, many are wondering where do each of the g.o.p. candidates go from here? do some move forward? joining us with his take and fox news contributor frank luntz. frank? >> people may be focused on what happened last night, the closest caucus in the history of iowa but for the candidates, they're only focused on what they do next. let's start with the top tier. for rick santorum, he exceeded everyone's expectations, exceeded the polls. for him, he has to show that he can deliver not just in iowa where he visited every one of the 99 counties but he can deliver in another state. new hampshire is an interesting state for him, an economically

conservative state. they appreciate politics. they were following what happened in iowa so santorum is going for a second place finish in new hampshire. my recommendation, however, is that he also take a look at south carolina. more conservative. more appreciative of his social agenda. if iowa is to the right, south carolina is even further and i think it's a good state for rick santorum. for mitt romney, this photo finish makes new hampshire even that much more important. he's got to get over 40%. he's got to perform well in the two upcoming debates on saturday night and sunday morning. but for him, the key is don't let anybody else win in south carolina and florida. i actually believe for mitt romney, florida should be his focal point. you win in florida in a primary and it makes you more likely to win florida in that crucial general election. third, ron paul. once again, double the vote that he got four years ago. for ron paul, he wants to show that he's more than a 10%

candidate. now, south carolina has got a large social conservative vote so to me, i'm looking for ron paul to focus much more on new hampshire. he and santorum try to battle it out for second place. the other issue for paul is to raise as much money as possible so he can be as viable in other states that go beyond florida. now, let's take a look at the second tier of candidates. it's said that iowa only offers three tickets out. i think they're going to offer four tickets out. newt gingrich who came in fourth, his objective is to win in south carolina and if he does, that puts him in good shape in florida to come 10 days later. if all the service in south carolina and florida the last few weeks, newt gingrich has continued his lead but his challenge is to find a way to get that antidote to respond to the negative advertising run by both mitt romney and ron paul's super pacs. so for gingrich, can you stay positive and still blunt those attacks? as far as rick perry, i think by

the time this day is out, he will have decided that texas is a better place for him to spend the next few months than either south carolina or florida. and i don't expect michelle bachmann to be a candidate either. so the last one is the one that we've forgotten about, jon huntsman. he didn't compete in iowa. he is competing in new hampshire. for him, anything less than a second place and a strong second place finish in new hampshire and his candidacy is done. 60 days ago, we had eight candidates. now we're down to seven and within the next 24 hours, we may be down to five. and it's only just begun. back to you. >> there could be a lot of room on that stage come saturday in the next debate. now, meanwhile, as we move ahead on this show, keep your eye on the sky. something extremely rare will happen this morning that you do not want to miss. then breaking down the boat. who ran away with the evangelical vote and who did the tea party pick and the biggest surprise. where did the women go?

we're breaking down those numbers next.

>> that's right. we're up. you should really put something on. some quick headlines now. general motors' much hyped electric car has made wall street 24/7's list of the worst product flops of 2011 and get this, analysis shows that each chevy volt sold as much as $20,000 in state and federal incentives behind it. and he may seem perfect but heartthrob george clooney says he's indeed flawed. the a list actor tells "vanity

fair" the trait he likes least about himself is criticism. take this. i don't like you, george. >> stop being so critical, brian. mitt romney emerging as the victor in iowa by eight votes. how did he stack up amongst some core republican constituencies? doug shone is a former pollster for president bill clinton and joins us live this morning. your headline from last night is? >> republican party still divided. no clear consensus, no clear decision among core constituencies who they want. >> let's talk about the core groups. the evangelicals went? >> rick santorum got about a third of the vote. the rest were divided. >> there you got it right there. exactly a third of the vote. what about the tea party republicans? >> tea party also went to rick santorum i think by a slightly smaller group but again, there was no overarching consensus. certainly no majority among the tea party for any candidate. >> ok, what does that mean going forward, then?

>> it means there's still a fight. there will be a fight in new hampshire for the most conservative, tea party traditional fiscal conservatives. that decision hasn't been made. >> let's back up a moment to the evangelicals, going forward, the state of new hampshire not quite as evangelical as iowa. >> absolutely right. santorum again won evangelicals, a third or less. there's not many in new hampshire but a huge constituency as frank luntz was suggesting in south carolina and that's a fight that rick santorum is going to have with newt gingrich going forward. >> all right. let's talk about the female vote. how did they split? >> female vote went, i think, evenly between rick santorum and romney. and i think it was 26-26 last time i checked. actually, i guess we're seeing 27-25 and so that's effectively a tie. again, ron paul at 19. but there's no clear female

candidate. >> well, there is a clear female candidate but she only got 5% of the vote. >> you know, because gender really wasn't an issue. she didn't have an explicit appeal to women or issue discussion that particularly appealed to them. >> did she make the issue, you know, i'm the woman in this race too late? because she was making that argument. >> she made it late. i think that message didn't come through. >> all right. and real quickly, the headline about ron paul is who voted for him? >> huge! he had those who said they were for the true conservative and he had moderates, liberal republicans and those who hadn't voted in caucuses before, steve, it's a story that's developing. we'll have to watch it in new hampshire, south carolina, and florida. >> very good. thank you very much for breaking down the numbers today. >> thank you. >> you bet. all right, straight ahead on this wednesday, he orchestrated the comeback of president bill clinton so does dick morris think that newt gingrich can do the same thing after abysmal

showing in iowa? "fox & friends" right back. we're up early so you should be, too. we'll be right back.