don't be a frippet. i am bill o'reilly. remember, the spin stops here. we are definitely looking out for you. captioned by closed caprvrvrvrvrvrvrvrvrvrvrc ♪ ♪ >> sean: mitt romney wins rounds one in iowa. >> thanks, you guys. >> sean: but team obama goes on the attack and calls him a weak front-runner. dick more rition has the latest on the countdown to the election. >> ron paul and rick santorum in my opinion are going to overperform in iowa. >> sean: he nailed the outcome in iowa. tonight, the architect karl rove has predictions for tuesday's primary in new hampshire. toush years ago, the anointed one mesmerized the american people. >> we are ready to believe again. >> sean: but now the thrill is gone. >> change is never easy.

>> sean: what happened to all of the soaring rhetoric and bold promises? plus, newt gingrich is here to tell us how he plans on climbing back on the top of the republican field. our countdown to election day continues. "hannity" starts right here, right now. ♪ ♪ >> sean: tonight, there are some stunning new poll numbers that indicate a seismic shift has taken place in the battle for the republican presidential nomination. let's take a look at this. following his impressive second place finish in iowa. former pennsylvania senator rick santorum is now only eight points behind the front-runner, that is mitt romney. now meanwhile, former speaker of the house, newt gingrich continues to poll in the top three. he has 16% of the vote. he will be joining me live later this hour from the campaign trail. as for senator santorum, the good news, well, it doesn't end there. just yesterday, his campaign announced that it raised more than $1 million in a single day, following the iowa caucuses. here with analysis of the significant developments, former clinton advisor, the one and only, dick morris. how are you?

>> good to see you, sean. >> sean: first after all, we expect a bounce. usually about ten points. this is significant for santorum. your reaction to the poll numbers? >> yeah, i think, i would not be surprised if santorum actually challenges romney for the lead in new hampshire. there are two candidates who are generous, that unique, if you are forthem, you are for them. if you are against them, you are against them. ron paul and mitt romney. everybody else is basically spongeable. if you are for huntsman or you are for bachmann or perry or gingrich, you might as well be for santorum. they're kind of in a pool. there is not much separating them. they are very few that hate each or love the other one. they're spongial. they swing rapidly. since we're so focused on defeating barack obama, being a winner becomes the own

qualification. being a loser becomes its own disqualification. santorum looks very much like a winner now. i think it will go up and up and up. derek jeter once said about baseball the good teams make the playoffs. the hot teams win the playoffs. that is true. >> sean: right. it looks like a firewall for rick perry. rick perry staying in the race, michele bachmann getting out of the race. does rick perry siphon votes from santorum or newt's ability to make a comeback? >> no. >> sean: you don't think so? >> forget rick perry. he is done. the point is there is one guy that can't be eliminated from the race no matter how badly he does. that is newt gingrich. because he's newt gingrich. he is going to be in the final mix. therefore, santorum's momentum helps romney. even if santorum would pass him and go to number one. that would not be a bad result

from romney. there aren't enough anti-romney voters for two candidates. there is enough for one. if you are for santorum or ron paul you are tri secting the anti-romney vote. >> sean: what you are describing. >> santorum is romney's grit. >> sean: what you are describing reminds us a lot of 2008. that is huckabee and romney. and they split the vote and paveed the way for john mccain to get in. this time you say it's romney doing it? >> it doesn't break down ideologically, because i don't think you call romney moderate and the other conservative. >> i am talking about perception more than anything else. >> i'm not sure about that. >> the point is, yeah, whether it's because he is mormon or because of romneycare, i think are the more salient things

than ideology, there is a significant number of people that don't want to vote for romney. if they go for one candidate, he might be defeated. if they go to three candidates, he is not going to get defeated. that is why in the long rank terms, gingrich -- long range terms, gingrich has to knock santorum, because he can't let santorum stay in the race if he has a chance at beating romney. >> sean: why do you think, as we watched all the other republicans rise in the polls, then fall back from michele bachmann to perry, to cain to gingrich. now rick santorum is viewed as the more conservative or the anti-romney, whatever argument you want to use. what is the difficulty, why is there a difficulty for romney to close with that conservative base? is there anything short of changing to split the vote and win primary? >> hi will win the nomination and get everybody's support.

>> sean: i am talking about prior to that, dick. >> he has done it and tried to talk about romneycare and other ways. the most important thing is you have volters with no place to go in a romney-paul contes contest. therefore they swish around like water in the bottom of the boat. they tilt it one way and tilt it the other because they are loose. they could be for any of the candidates. the other point to bear in mind is that we are so focused on a winner, that winners win. and losers lose. so the big argument against gingrich and santorum is newt lost and rick won. and that becomes an argument since this really is not so much a primary, as it is an audition. >> sean: i agree to a certain point. and we expect that mitt romney, we always thought from the beginning he would do well in new hampshire and neighboring state. he has a home there. i would anticipate he wins new

hampshire. i think santorum is going to keep a lot of his momentum. if gingrich stays at the 16% in the poll that came out today or maybe a little higher, two things will happen now. newt is going to go after romney hard. they have two debates. there will be heavy scrutiny of santorum so he has to deal with that. and then they will head to south carolina. >> it will be much more friendly to newt gingrich. gingrich will make a stand in south carolina. at the moment i think he will win south carolina. even if he finishes fourth on tuesday in new hampshire. i think that south carolina will take a perverse pleasure in reversing the verdict of new hampshire. like they did in 2008. but listen, there is one other thing we chatted about before we went on the air that is terribly important. it's the most important statistic of 2012.

nothing else matters next to this. since the 2008 election, the number of people who say they are democrats dropped by 21%. one out of five democrats left the party since obama was elected. eight-point drop nationally. the number of republicans risen by 3%. have we squandered the momentum 2010? no way. in 2010 election we had 1.3% margin over democrats. now it's 2.7% margin over the democrats. those numbers change so slowly when they change they talk about the the tonic plate shifting and earthquake happening. >> sean: dick morris always taking on everything. that's why we have you on. thank you for being with us coming up, last month on the show, karl rove virt wailly predicted how the caucuses would pan out. do you remember this?

>> ron paul and rick santorum in my opinion will overperform in iowa. >> sean: tonight, the architect is back with his crystal ball to tell us what we can expect from new hampshire. moments later, moments after he concludes a town hall in the granite state. newt gingrich will be my guest live from the campaign trail. live from the campaign trail. theurney across america, i've learned that when you ask someone in texas if they want "big" savings on car insurance, it's a bit like asking if they want a big hat... ...'scuse me... ...or a big steak... ...or big hair... i think we have our answer.

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ron paul and rick santorum in my opinion are going to overperform in iowa, because they're well organized. paul has support -- remember, iowa is sort of an isolationist state. there will be a lot of college kids attracted to his message of, you know, the antiwar message. there will be democrat people who want to play on the republican side. ron paul will overperform. similarly, rick santorum has dug in, visited every one of the 99 counters. people i talk to in iowa whose opinion i respect tell me they think he is going to overperform. i think they're right. >> sean: now that was none other than the architect karl rove accurately predicting way

back on december 13 that both rick santorum and ron paul would have strong showings in iowa. rick santorum fell only a handful of votes shy in winning the hawkeye state. ron paul came in third place. tonight with only a few days to go now until the first in the nation primary in new hampshire, we invite mr. rove back to see if he has more predictions. just say it. i was right, hannity. go ahead. >> i'll let you say that. thank you. >> sean: i just did. you were. congratulations. the big winner obviously is santorum, mitt romney, romney a few weeks ago, nobody was predicting he would win iowa. granted, eight votes is eight votes but it's a win. rick santorum, you know, perseverance, hardwork paid off. >> yeah, it did. >> sean: what do you see going into new hampshire? >> first of all, for new hampshire, iowa doesn't mean much. new hampshire has a habit of not paying attention to iowa, which is why george w.h. bush

wins in 1980 and reagan wins new hampshire. bush wins iowa in 2000 and john mccain wins new hampshire. it's why mike huckabee wins iowa in 2008 and you know, mccain wins new hampshire. it's just, it's -- new hampshire has got its own rhythm and pays attention not that much to what happens in iowa. except this year. that is if you take a look at it, there is some evidence in the two polls that have been conducted since tuesday primary, one is a one-night poll and one is a two-night poll that there is movement for santorum in the state of new hampshire. at the expense of jon huntsman who spent the entire year trying to pull a santorum in new hampshire. that is to say camping out in that state. and at the expense of speaker newt gingrich. both of whom numbers look like they are dropping. those people are moving in the camp of santorum. >> sean: looking at rasmussen, one of the polls

you are referring to. romney is 29. 21% for santorum. a huge jump for him. a big bounce out of iowa. newt at 16. where am i wrong in my analysis. romney and santorum will be on the receiving end of negative ads, negative attacks, they have two debates over the weekend they've got to perform well in. heading to tuesday's primary. how would you advise both of them to hand what is coming their way? >> well, look, i think you are right about romney. i think romney is going to be the pinata on saturday night in the debate with everybody going after him. i'm not certain i necessarily see santorum on the receiving end of attacks by other candidates. the media, the media is going to give him a lot more scrutiny. and so he will have to deal with that. romney has been scrutinized by the media. and now it will be santorum's turn to be scrutinized by the media. but romney is the guy whom

everybody is coming after in the debate. >> sean: yeah, i probably agree with that. but now, you just all the chatter out there against rick santorum. i mean, some of it has been vicious. unfair. but, you know, look, negative ads if there is any big campaign against either one of them in new hampshire, between now and tuesday, it could have an impact. as we saw it had a big impact on newt gingrich's campaign in iowa. >> sean: the difference was newt gingrich was sustained over a period of weeks. now we have just a matter of days. it will be what they read in the media and what they hear at the water cooler or what they see at the church social or what they hear when they go out to, you know, socialize with their neighbors or friends. that it's a much shorter time frame between now and next tuesday. media is going to pay less importance. what is going to matter more is what happens on the trail. here is -- i think romney is in first. the question for him is whether or not the expectation, the santorum campaign is trying to say our goal is to keep him under 30. so that may, or may not happen. but that is going to be the

goal. the question is going to be who is in second place? right now, in the polling if you look at the ample of recent polls, ron paul is in second place. and newt gingrich in third. and santorum in fourth. the question is this momentum that santorum has, does it pass newt gingrich, it will be damaging to the gingrich candidacy if it does. does it get to and pass ron paul? if it does, then santorum is going to have a really good night next tuesday. even if it doesn't reach his goal of keeping mitt romney under 30. >> sean: what about this power grab of barack obama's as it relates to recess appointments? interesting, you were there in the bush white house. something that george bush, in other words, if the senate is in session, constitution is very clear on this, that you cannot have recess appointments. the democrats use that a number of times so that president bush could not recess appoint people. >> right. >> sean: as a matter of fact, then senator obama said it was the wrong thing to do. in other words doing it even the right way.

he now went ahead with the power grab. i dent think a lot of people in the immediate -- i don't think a lot of people in the media are looking closely at it. i think it can be a big issue. i want to get your thoughts on it. >> people said you ought to do what obama has now done. five years later. you ought to do this like newbollikennomination. if they are not meeting test him by appoint him and listen to discussions, listen to the lawyers, heard the arguments on both sides. but it looked to us as we ultimately decided not to go down this path because it looked to us like the preponderance of evidence was this was a constitutional prerogative of the united states senate and if we attempted to do what obama did, we would face serious ramifications legally. the action could be overturned in the courts. spark constitutional crisis

with the democrat president. this president has no concern. he wants to get re-elected. and if shoving three nominee to national labor relations board through is what he needs to do to get them psyched up about getting them re-elected he will do it. if he needs to put his finger in the eye of the republicans trying to reach a policy solution to the questions he will do it. >> my predictions are quickly, new hampshire. romney, santorum, gingrich, in that order. south carolina then becomes critical. your prediction? see if we're on the same page. >> romney first place, paul, second, santorum, third; gingrich, fourth. >> sean: we'll see. >> south carolina does become important. >> sean: very important. it will be critical. >> sean: karl rove, good to see you. >> appreciate it. great to see you. >> sean: what a difference four years makes. wait until you see our comparison of candidate obama 2008 victory speech to the embarrassing address he gave on tuesday night. it's safe to say the thrill up

everybody's lec is gone. later, candidate newt gingrich will join us live from new hampshire to tell us how he plans to return to the top of [ male announcer ] cranberry juice? wake up! ♪ that's good morning, veggie style. hmmm [ male announcer ] for half the calories -- plus veggie nutrition. could've had a v8.

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>> sean: four years ago, then senator barack obama shook the political world upsetting hillary clinton in the 2008 iowa caucuses. following that victory, the aminutes toed one delivered this rousing speech to his hawkeye supporters. >> ordinary people can do exextraordinary things, but we are not a collection of red states and blue states. we are the united states of america.

in this moment, this election, we are ready to believe again. thank you, iowa. >> that speech offers quite the contrast to the one he gave on tuesday to this year's iowa caucus goers. you can stay it's understated, underwhelmed live webcast hampered by static and audio interruptions. watch this. >> change is never easy. the problems we've been dealing with didn't happen overnight and we won't fix them overnight. we're making steady progress as long as we sustain it. >> sean: he is givingup on the bold speeches, big promiseles instead of begging for four more years? we're joined by contributor kimberly, who deals with bob beckel on "the five." and that puttous in line for sainthood. >> really! >> sean: you know, that video, contrast is stark. i mean, it's like there is no

energy. you know, recently said he is lazy. >> i caught that. >> sean: i am thinking who would allow him to do this? >> there is nobody there anymore. in the white house, he doesn't have quite the role. here is a contrast. governor branstad was governor when ronald reagan was in 1984. he said mondale and heart and everybody is out here, we need reagan to come out and join the primaries. we flew reagan out and did a rally bigger than theirs in the middle of their event. he wanted to play the game, they are building a structure there, he would have flown out and had 1,000 people or 2,000 people in iowa the night before, or the night after to show that he is really functioning. to this was amateur hour. >> it's really surprising, isn't it? it's such a marked contrast between the great orator, the person with the flowing rhetoric to give incredible. >> yeah. >> the democratic convention and heard him speech and everybody was awe-struck.

here is problem. he has a record now. he has actually some things that are tied to him and it's like albatross around him. he can't escape the record spending, the deficit, unemployment number, lack of jobs. he said give me a chance. i need four more years to get what i need to get done. the guy looks defeated and beaten. somebody give him geritol vitamins and an i.v. >> sean: like him, i hope i don't look that bad on a web cam. >> we have good lighting for you. >> sean: thanks a lot. he said to matt lauer in february when he first became president look, this is a one-term proposition if i don't turn the economy around. i know they will spend numbers and we have 2 million less people working when he was president and unemployment rate is coming down but we don't count half the people that are unemployed. >> no way he can run on the record. what he has to do is make the unacceptable alternative.

if you think i'm bad, look at them. in contrast, we have to say, everything was bad when he came. in he made it worse. this is a tired president who doesn't like his job. there are two great days. >> a tired president who doesn't like his job. i agree with you. >> sean: he likes the helicopter and the plane and playing golf. who wouldn't. that is not a bad living. at the end of the day, i always said and i worked for four different presidents. president has two good days. inaugural day and the day he leaves and dedicates his library. this guy is ready to dedicate his library. >> sean: wow! that is profound. >> look at the problems he has had and he tries to come up with solutions but it hasn't born out at all. he knows people are disenchanted with him. if you look at his numbers, they're abysmal. it's very sad. she facing a tough re-election. in fact, he should. how is he at this point when he appears to be burned out and stress and not happy in the position he is in, how is he going to be a formidable opponent to someone

invigorating? >> sean: my analysis is he is over his head and he has always been. he had no real-life experience. the biggest deal was the rescoe house deal prior to this. he is married to his ideology. rigid, locked into it. can't recognize it's wrong and he lashes out. now it seems that the campaign evolved to the republicans want dirty air, dirty water. they don't care about the autistic children or kids with down syndrome or old people. >> they want to put granny in the wheelchair. >> it's easier when pelosi was running the agenda she ran the healthcare agenda. he never had a real bill. once she had one, put it through the congress, he was willing to jump on that. at the end of the day, he wants to be an historic figure. he will be historic virg in the first african-american and deserve. that but not an historic figure because at the end of the day he is marked as a miserable president. i can tell you, been in second terms with nixon and water gate and reagan who was tired in the second term.

the second term is tough. this one is very, very tough. >> sean: when i interviewed president bush, when he was leaving office, a couple of days before he left, he was ready to go. he felt at peace and at ease. i think he was glad to get back to his private life. maybe that president obama feels at this point. >> this is a problem. instead of hope and change, we're left with frustration and disappointment already. >> sean: who will be the nominee and who will be the best nominee? >> i think mitt romney is going to be the nominee. but it will be interesting if he is able to pull it off, because from beginning to end, being the front runner concerns me is the fact he hasn't been able to resonate and get the passionate momentum above 25%. i think that is a problem. but if everyone is able to coalesce behind him, it will be great. other people have organizational problems in terms of not getting on the ballot. >> at the end of the day, obviously, he will probably win new hampshire, not by the margin. if he can then go to south carolina and get a second or third and go win florida, and there is no real conservative alternative, santorum and

huntsman are fighting for second place, and there is nobody that emerges as the alternative who wins, someone has to win south carolina to become alternative. i think romney goes on to win this thing. >> sean: you do. is he the best person? >> perry gets one more shot here. but perry has to win. he can't come in second or third. newt is leading in south carolina. that is going to drop, though. if newt does not do well here in new hampshire, he will drop back. >> a lot to like about him. >> i say this as a conservative. we want conservative. >> right. may not be one. >> at the end of the day we swallow hard and support romney but we're looking -- santorum gets a shot at carrying the ball. if he is successful, great. if not, newt or somebody else -- >> sean: he is about to. >> paul ryan or marco rubio or jeb bush. like all of those guys. >> sean: there is a great pool of candidates for v.p. >> they have a better bench for vice president than we almost have for president. >> sean: you really make the

candidates that are killing themselves feel good tonight. >> they have to kill themselves more. >> sean: the president is watching. he probably switched to espn right now. what he usually watches anyway. >> is it bracket time already. >> i'm an old man, i can say what i want. >> sean: he might refer to hexenessy in the meantime -- excellency in the meantime. moments ago, newt gingrich addressed a town hall audience in new hampshire but right now he is on the way to the cameras to talk to us live from the campaign trail. ♪

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>> sean: now with the iowa caucuses behind him, former house speaker newt gingrich focusing on new hampshire. a short time ago, the g.o.p. presidential hopeful held a town hall meeting in the granite state explaining why he thinks he is the best candidate to take on president obama in 2012. leading up to tuesday's primary, the gingrich campaign has released a brand new ad on mitt romney's economic plan. listen to this. >> romney's economic plan, timid. part of it virtually identical to obama failed policy. timid won't create jobs and timid won't defeat barack obama. newt gingrich's bold leadership balanced the budget. reformed welfare. helped create millions of new jobs. the gingrich jobs plan, a powerful plan for growing our economy and creating jobs. rebuilding the america we love with bold conservative leadership. >> i'm newt gingrich. i approve this message. >> sean: all right, joining

me with reaction, the man himself, presidential candidate, newt gingrich. mr. speaker, thank you for being back with us. >> i'm delighted. i approve of that commercial. >> sean: i think you said that in the ad. let me ask you specifically, strategically and tactically, you have been around politics a long time. i watched you when you were in georgia. i was there the night you became speaker. you always knew negative campaigns, negative add ads wor. there was a super pac running negative ads against you, romney super pac and ron paul ads attack you. why did you not respond in iowa? in retrospect, do you think it's a mistake? >> i think the only major mistake we made was not doing an ad early on that had someone like congressman j.c. watts explain how false the freaks charges were and walk people through -- how false

the freddie mac charges were and walk them through it. in retrospect, i wish we had done it. the rest of it, i was frankly watching to see what would happen. for two solid weeks i asked governor romney to have his pac quit doing this stuff. i thought it was demeaning. not to me, i thought it was demeaning to the process. i think iowans are sick of it. i wanted to make a case to the national news media. i have been persistently positive. the most i will do is draw contrast. as you just saw in that ad. i will draw a contrast only on public policy. i'm not going to go out and play gotcha games and i'm not going to distort governor romney's personal life or his personal business. i'll draw contrast from what he did as governor or public policy. that is fair game. he could do the same thing to me. i want it locked in

everybody's mind for three weeks, 45% of the ads in iowa attack me personally. i continue to be positive. all of my ads were positive. it did everything i could to set the right tone for america's future. and right tone for the people of the country. it's sad that somebody like governor romney was not prepared to have that positive campaign. that's fine. he and his pac can run whatever kind of junk they want to run. i am going to run direct policy oriented when massachusetts moderate and reagan conservative. i'm prepared to have that debate in every state in the country. i have no doubt that the republican party in the end will pick a reagan conservative over a massachusetts moderate. >> sean: you started, there has been a strategic shift. i mean from the moment -- i have the ad right here. the choice, only a bold reagan conservative can defeat president obama. that ad is different than what you have been running. you weren't really running

comparative ads in iowa. so, you are going to run the ads. what is the case now you are making? because look, you know, if i had frank luntz here and we had a group of people, 90% would say they hate negative ads. buff negative ads work. or if you want to define them as negative ads. >> negative ads have an impact. we went through a long stretch and because we know each other so well, you were there. for two months the national media said i was dead. then we gradually slowly came back and i described my campaign as a tortoise. the bunny rabbits run past and fall asleep. i keep going forward one step at a time. suddenly, we took off. all of it positive. all of it based on the debate. all of it based on good ideas and on a 21st century contract with america. at one point, i was ahead i think by almost 18 or 20 points in the gallup poll. that was all positive stuff. and now you have had a series

of attacks. and now we have to rebuild again. so we will. we'll rebuild like the tortoise. we'll rebuild steadily, happily, positively, but i have always been confident in this race. because i don't believe the state that produced michael dukakis, john kerry and mitt romney is not going to produce the republican nominee. that is just a fact. in the end, governor romney will not be able to hide behind negative ads. people will actually look at his record and realize he raised taxes as governor, they'll realize he appointed liberal judges who were pro-abortion. they will realize he wrote planned parenthood in romneycare. he wrote tax paid abortions in to romneycare. all of these things will ad up. people will go oh, yes! that is not somebody i want to be republican nominee. >> sean: you got two debates this weekend. so i assume this battle go back and forth probably between the two of you. i know the country will be

watching. they are paying close attention. as you make comparisons between the two of you, a lot of people say all right, what is the tone going to be? you were on the cbs morning show, or asked do you think that mitt romney was lying and you said yes. some people say maybe that is not the action to take. >> if bob schieffer asked that question, would you have answered him honestly or not? i didn't say it angrily. i'm not particularly angry. i have been in the process of the public life for a long time. it understand that people can do stupid things. that doesn't offend me personally. this is about the country. if we're going to be angry, be angry about the economic mess they're in. be angry about a congress and president that can't work together or barack obama this morning violating the constitution by making recess appointments when thenate is not in recess. there is a lot of stuff to be

angry about that is real. be angry about the fact that millions of americans are sitting out here with homes in danger of foreclosure. we can take care of the giant banks but not the homeowners. a lot of stuff to be angry about. i'm not particularly angry about technique that romney is using. >> sean: in iowa -- sorry, new hampshire, the latest poll that came out. romney was at 29. santorum, 21. you were in third place. strong number. 16. by all accounts, now that mitt romney squeaked out victory in iowa and likely to win new hampshire, a state he was expected to win from early on, i guess all eyes then go to south carolina where you are still leading in some polls there. how important then is south carolina become in the entire process? >> well, south carolina is very, very important. i don't think south carolina is going to vote for a massachusetts moderate. i think you talked to voters of south carolina, when you outline romney's actual record, they can't imagine

that someone with that background could run as a republican. you saw the ads that john mccain did in 2008 indicating why romney lost -- well, romney lost new hampshire in 2008 as people look at the ad to realize who is real romney as opposed to the candidate. >> sean: when i had you on radio this week, you spoke to the issue of aligning a little bit with rick santorum. what did you specifically mean about that? >> well, santorum and perry and i all three represent an american conservatism that is dramatically different than massachusetts moderate. we all naturally have a similar reaction to romney's policies and a similar sense that you are going to write a platform. we'd three write a platform more conservative than the platform the romney want to

write. in that sense we have respect for each other and broadly philosophical approach. we're all competitors and want toe merge as the winner. so we're not going to be partners but we have a common agreement we want a more conservative america than mitt romney does. >> sean: we'll see you monday night in new hampshire? >> absolutely. >> sean: getting interesting by the day. two debates this weekend. we'll be watching. see you monday. thank you for being with us. >> thank you. >> sean: let not your heart be troubled. the great, great, great american panel is next.

>> sean: tonight on the great, great american panel he was a republican senator from the great state of new york. fox news con >> translator:or. we called him senator pothole. al d'amato. >> proud to be with you. pothole is back. >> sean: since you left, potholes are bigger and more of them. he was part of obama campaign media team. democratic strategist steve murphy. she is a fox news political analyst, republican strategist, our friend, angela mcglowan is back. thank you for being with us. one thing, who will it be? the national g.o.p. front runner following new hampshire traditionally now been a good indicator of who is going to be the party's nominee. for example, mccain. put it up on the screen. bush 43 as you can see there. reagan, ford. they all polled at the very

top in new hampshire. does that make new hampshire where romney is a strong favorite? does that close the deal for him? is this a different year? >> i think it closes the deal for him. this is definitely a different year. but mitt romney is going to be the nominee. he is the only candidate that i believe can defeat barack obama. >> sean: that i disagree with. this is the first time we disagreed. >> it is. but when you look at if the fact that conservatives are happy with him? no. but who decides who the next republican will be this it's not the republicans or democrats. it's independents. >> sean: we talked about this before we came on the air. you said something that was interesting. you think the conservative vote has doubts about romney and you offer advice. what is it? >> they have doubts about him. but when they look at the alternative, the alternative is none of the others because i don't believe -- >> sean: that is not the advice. you had something, it was very good advice. >> he has to show some passion and guts.

what does america need? i'll tell you what we need. we need to let our friends know that the friends will be there. and our enemies be careful. don't take us for granted. he has to convey strength. conservatives need to see that. he handles the economy. yes, he is the guy for the economy. just show some passion. >> they want passion and conviction. especially in the conservatives -- >> sean: it's worked for him. he won iowa. he is likely to win new hampshire. you have can't argue with success. but he is saying he is playing it too safe. >> yeah. >> in south carolina, he can show strength and we need to project ourselves when necessary. not get in unnecessary conflicts but when we're there, we're there to win. >> sean: steve, i don't care who you think the nominee should be because you're a democrat. but i will say this. a recent number came out that is scary if you are a barack obama supporter.

he has the worst approval ratings at the end of his third year than any incumbent in 55 years. how does he overcome? >> this are trends that matter. in the late summers he was at 41, 42, 43%. he is at 49%. >> according to what? >> the approval rating is 49. economy is reviving up. >> 25,000 new applicants. >> the worst recession since the great depression. >> sean: wait a second. he said himself to matt lauer if i don't fix the problem, we lost 2 million jobs since he is president. we didn't gain any. we didn't save any. this would be a one-term proposition. >> fixing the problem, we're going to have 2.5% solid growth next year. unemployment is going down. >> sean: stimulus isn't fixing it. >> it is fixing it. >> the first stimulus package, steve, the first stimulus package he said that the unemployment rate was not go over 8%.

how is it right now? >> how about the payroll tax cut? continuing the bush tax cut? >> sean: how about $5 trillion in debt? that's not what i want. >> half trillion dollars. >> sean: i want to create 20 million jobs. >> if the republicans played ball it would be $4 trillion. >> giving away billions of dollars to contributors to wasteful programs. the energy program we gave one company over half a billion dollars. and put the interest of the our country behind his contributors. if you go bankrupt, we'll bail out those who happen to be my -- investors who happen to be my contributors. >> sean: we have to take a break. [ male annouer ] juice drink too watery? ♪ feel the power my young friend. mmm!

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>> sean: we talked in the break about the "jerusalem post" today and they are pointing out that venezuela is working with iran and they are building icbm missile launching sites. we know they now have nuclear fuel rods and they'll be able to build a nuclear weapon. it's a tiny hittal country, the -- little country, the two countries. they don't represent a threat.

somebody once said that, obama. here is the question -- and i talked to donald trump today. he believes close to the election, barack obama would start something and the nation would rally behind him and that is how they look for victory. >> sean, barack obama as we said in the break is a great politician. >> sean: do you believe he would do that? >> this man would do anything. he's machiavellian. he would do anything to win re-election. >> do you agree with that? >> absolutely. i am very fearful he will do that and it will rally the nation because there is such a great number one fear and anger as it relates to iran and what they have been doing. that the american people would rally around him. >> sean: wait a minute. he would ignore iran, which just last week threatened, said to the united states if we don't move our ships out of the strait of hormuz, they will blow them out of the water. that they are plotting assassinations on the u.s. soil of foreign dignitaries. he does nothing until that point. if he does something in

september, would it not cause reason for citizen schism? >> he launched 300 drone attacks against al-qaeda. george bush did 50. he fought an aggressive war. if you accuse him of going to war for political reasons, it's shameful. you should not -- >> sean: i asked a question. i asked a question. >> i'm not ashamed of. >> look at the record. >> i said i wouldn't put it past him. he is a total political animal. >> animal! >> and he would use that if he thought it would make a difference to get him elected. >> i agree with donald trump. i do. >> better watch out -- >> sean: we don't have a lot of time. why didn't they, why wouldn't -- [ overtalk ] >> sean: assassination against the saudi ambassador on u.s. soil? why didn't he do anything? when they threatened the warship, why didn't he do anything? >> we ratcheted up sanctions. what did we do?

their country is falling apart now. >> sean: hang on. you go back, senator, and said iran, venezuela, they're tiny countries. they're not the soviet union. you're right. remember that? >> i am telling you this. this would be the political strike people rallied around. >> sean: if you were right and donald trump were right and angela were right it would be the single biggest abuse of power that i can think of. >> he doesn't care about the abuse of power. he abuses it every day. the national labor relations or the new fellow who is going to protect me and he doesn't. notwithstanding that senate was in session. >> take it to court. >> he wants you to take it to court. for political reasons. so he can say see this, they want to protect the big bad banks.