for this monday, january 9th, 2012, i'm shepard smith. thanks for having us in. we'll see you back here tomorrow for studio "b" and right back here for a primary edition of the fox report tomorrow night. >> bill: o'reilly factor is on. >> his record was so great as governor of massachusetts why did he run for reelection? >> the fact you had a bad reelection rating. you dropped out of office. level with the american people. you have been running since the 1990s. >> romney continuing to under attack by fellow republicans but latest poll numbers show him he is far out in front. how do conservatives deal with the reality. we'll have a special report. >> it is for us essential because we have a lot riding on our relationship together. >> bill: now comes word that hillary clinton may be considering to replace joe biden as vp.

>> my name in association as dumbest thing he ever did i think there is plenty of competition. calling newt gingrich dumb. >> bill: caution you are about to enter the no-spin zone. the factor begins right now. >> bill: hi, i'm bill o'reilly. conservative and the presidential vote. that is the subject of the talking points memo. new poll says 27% of americans describe themselves as republicans. 31% say they are democrats and whopping 40% now say they are independent. the polls are bit misleading because america is rather conservative country. we are not a libertine nation. but in the political arena a

strictly conservative candidate will have trouble being elected as president. gone or the days that ideology can persuade the majority of voters. most americans want performance like obama and reagan, polar spoipts spioth, it's all about persuasion and to romney who is the likely nominee. brand-new poll says romney is ahead in new hampshire tonight. that vote is tomorrow. the poll says romney has 33%. paul 20, gingrich 11 and santorum 10. south carolina where the vote is january 21, romney is leading in most of the polls. it's clearly the governor's race the lose and it didn't alter that. the question becomes how should conservative americans handle the romney situation? well it all depends on how you see president obama. all the polls say romney would offer obama the hardest

challenge so even a gingrich could is a stretch. talking points mirt romney to do well tomorrow in new hampshire. also the republican machine in south carolina is now on the governor's side so he should compete well there. in florida, again the machine is backing romney. so while it's not over until the fat lady sings, many hefty women are avidly rehearsing. cautionary note for romney, why the u.s.a. is losing power. he must make his case clearly without any waffling. the candidate that goes against president obama is going to need an arrow point message and most importantly is going to have to be bold and fresh without losing credibility. it will be a brutal campaign and the governor may get his hair messed up. to the top story. joining us from washington chief

political analyst, brit hume. talking points is jumping the gun. you know the talking voice is annoying, it's just annoying, it's out of control. but i have to tell the truth. the truth is if you look at every survey rolling in, romney is on the cain train without cain. he is heading for the promised land is he not? >> reporter: he is, there has been slippage in new hampshire. new hampshire is the most treacherous place there is for a candidate. he wasn't the big story in iowa because santorum was. i've seen this before. last weekend before the new hampshire primary can be a time when the most remarkable things happen. i think perhaps he won't lose. i don't think you can rule that

out but there is a distinct possibility when we count the results tomorrow night that he will be seen as under performed expectations and not done well and having lost ground. its real possibility. >> bill: anything is a possibility. ron paul i guess could win. >> i don't think so. >> bill: the suffolk polling, it knows some things, it came out after the saturday night debate. so with romney at 35. >> he has been up in the 40s. >> bill: i know. but getting the tar kicked out of him by all the candidates. expect a little bit of a drop. i thought hillary is going to beat obama. what i do see is the infrastructure for romney, the infrastructure in south carolina, in florida is there and not there for any of the other candidates. you know how important that is

structure. >> reporter: it is. it's not just party infrastructure. in south carolina, you see the governor and so on, but what he has built on his own. he has built up a war chest of money. he has a big national organization. he can be on the air and campaigning in a number places at once. in the next few weeks that will be very important because, for him to limp into south carolina to hang on as some of the candidates will be. in the south carolina campaign its state you need to advertise and be operating in florida because their primary is a week later. the campaign gets more national pretty quickly. there is a lull in february and more so after that. romney's pos best position for a long race. >> bill: the change in party affiliation is very telling. you've been that the longer than i have which is an amazing thing. [ laughter ]

>> bill: you've seen over the years that the parties now have lost a lot of power because many americans are now saying, i don't want to be affiliated with a party anymore. i want to be a person, this is my philosophy who looks and selects the best problem solver, the person that impresses me the most. i don't believe in an ideologue as rick santorum as effective as he was can win. i don't think an ideologue can win. he may be able to get nominated but obama, remember, even though he an ideologue, no doubt he is, he didn't run as an ideologue. he ran as a man of all seasons. now, the reason he may lose is because he showed himself to be a left wing ideologue. am i wrong? >> reporter: i wouldn't rule out the possibility that santorum could win the election because i think the election will be about obama.

party affiliation business, it's particular striking in the case of republicans you have something on the order of 40% of americans say they are conservative but fewer than 30% say they are republicans. does that tell you the republican party is too far to the right or too much ineffective? >> bill: here is what it tells me. there isn't any brand leadership. if ronald reagan were still alive and he were the figure head of the republican party, bill clinton is a figurehead of democratic party. reagan were still alive, republican membership is up. there is no main spokesperson. jonl mccain has no mojo. his endorsement of mitt romeny's didn't get him very much. it might help anymore new hampshire a little bit, but there isn't any brand republican name to drive people into the party. the party is the fragmented and split.

you know that. >> reporter: we're starting to see some of that in the race. that the standard position when it is not in power in washington. you said bill clinton is leader of democratic party, i would suggest barack obama and he is an identifiable person, but they like the man. even so, the democrats are only identifying at about 31% of the population and only 20% at the polls. >> bill: are you going tell me if president obama loses the election that it's going him and not bill clinton for the head of the democratic party. >> reporter: if he loses the election, democrats will be in wilderness for a while and new leader will have to emerge. >> bill: i think hillary clinton is poised to run the next time around. we're going to cover after you, the fact the left is floating her to replace joe biden now. i think the clintons are still a

power but even so, both parties are hemorrhaging people they don't want to be associated with them. right? >> reporter: i'll give you that bill. >> bill: i love to end on a note like that. so does talking points. >> bill: give my best to the factor, don't forget the check. >> bill: media is floating hillary clinton's name. charles krauthammer on newt gingrich promising a scorched earth campaign against romney in south carolina. coming right back.

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that's 8 hours while you wear it, plus an additional 8 hours of relief after you take it off. can your patch, wrap, cream or rub say that? so if you've got pain... get up to 16 hours of pain relief with thermacare. >> bill: joining us from washington to analyze, mary and juan williams. all right, williams, had clinton thing has been for around and it's always buzzing around. how do do you take?

>> this is precious moment. as you know, this very day, bill daley has been ousted as the white house chief of staff. >> bill: let me stop you there. he has been ousted. i heard he just left. he was ousted. who ousted him? >> reporter: look you've got a real axis of power battle inside the white house. obama white house, you heard the book about mrs. obama. >> bill: tell me about who ousted daley? >> i think obama's team led by valerie jarret and said you are not visionary. we need the ship to run. >> bill: are you possible po he was ousted? >> reporter: he wanted to go back to chicago. he didn't like it because he was being undercut at every turn. they were thinking about making

him chairman of the campaign. >> bill: so on the record, that daley was ousted but we don't know who is going to take his place. >> jack lew. he a budget guy. he a mechanic. you'll never hear his name. >> bill: i never heard daley's name. i knew he was there. he was announced coming on, did he ever do anything? no. jack lew, whoever that is. >> reporter: this is the time when they are reorienting toward the campaign. it was perfect to get hillary clinton in. they worry it's going to look like desperation. you know this is no drama obama, they don't want that. he is the most popular politician in america. i'm not joking. she is more popular among women than oprah winfrey. >> bill: 65% but how do you see

it mary? >> reporter: anybody with a 60 plus approval rating that is good. you could go broke betting against clinton's ambition. i'm not sure she wants the gig. she doesn't have to take the second fiddle job to obama. i'm not sure he is somebody that would want to sign her on. >> bill: he doesn't want somebody in the white house that is not loyal to him, like biden is very loyal. it would be an embarrassment to the obama administration. we're pretty weak and we got to do this. daley you could throw overboard, nobody cares. biden is going to be a headline. viability of hillary clinton on the second ticket, no doubt that would help president obama in the election, correct? >> if you look back to the pennsylvania primary exit polls the numbers are incredible, she is beating him with women,

moderates 60-40. those are the people he needs, the people he has been losing in droves. so biden does a bit too but he is a bit more exciting candidate. i am not sure i see it happening. i talked to people that know her and better position to know something about what she wants to do. >> bill: we may have a sarah palin surprise. i don't think it would be done before the convention. i think the obama is going to ahead and watch. they are assuming it will be romney but anything can happen. >> they are getting collective butts kicked in august, in charlotte, north carolina, joe biden, my wrist hurts. i can't patted people on the back anymore. i got to have an operation. all of a sudden there is hillary like this.

>> don't forget, republican side you likely to sigh nikki haley with a mitt romney. >> i think it's chris christie. he is a hard conservative on his tail. christie is a wipe out guy on the debates. i think it's christie all the way right now. >> christie is not a hard conservative. >> bill: he comes was krs that way. >> slash and burn. we'll see. but i think mary katherine is on to something about the importance of suburban white women in swing state ohio or michigan. the fact they love hillary. >> bill: much bigger draw than joe biden. >> the one thing that assistant go about this. i don't mean this in a mean way to hill had a larry but how far

obama has fallen. he was fresh baggage list was amazing interesting character and he was super hip. hillary was tragically unhip and nobody wanted to listen to her. she was the republican of the democratic provide marry, now he is a fresh face and they want to inject this 2008 spirit by bringing her in. >> bill: are you ready. am i tragically unhip? >> no, sir. [ laughter ] >> bill: thanks a lot for being on the program. >> charles krauthammer about romney and bernie goldberg on robs gibbs reportedly cursing

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>> bill: personal selling. billionaire sceen owner has donated million to romney's campaign. five million dollars of romney calling him a predatory captain lift that destroys jobs. joining system charles krauthammer. most of this will be in south carolina, where custer's last stand for santorum, newt gingrich, ron paul. because we do expect, i want your opinion on this, mitt

romney to do well tomorrow in new hampshire. >> he will do well in new hampshire, but i think it's not just going to be a custer last stand in south carolina. i think for romney it will be a rubicon. this will be the one place where he is going to get everything hurled at him. he you got a hint of it in yesterday morning's debate. all the candidates and this is remarkable for republican candidates who were non-romney attacked him for bain capital story. this is kind of attack you know obama and the democrats are preparing to launch. >> bill: footnote on that, next segment with stuart varney so bain and whether the accusation against romney is true. but the sufficient okay university poll is true, romney comes in 35 and wins fairly comfortably. they say in south carolina he is

ahead. he has the machine, he has got the governor and republican party structure is on his side. he has got a lot of money to do what he wants. $3.4 million, in f that true, that buys a lot of ad time in south carolina. he could wrap it up in a scorched earth policy. do you expect him to do that? >> absolutely. newt isn't after victory. he is after vengeance. he thinks and perhaps with some justice that month ago it looked as if he was about to engineer the greatest come back of american history, rise to the presidency and be a world historic figure and he blames it all on the negative ads of romney and ron paul. in iowa for the dream to disappear. he is going after his revenge. point is they are going after

one issue. you got to have material. the reason that the negative ads worked against gingrich in iowa is because there was material you could draw on. the material here people have been looking for the whole time is the bain capital story. >> bill: will they be able to run. >> they will be able to run ads with tears in their eyes i lost my home so romney could become a multimillionaire. i'm not saying it's right. i'm not saying there is statistical or reality behind it, but if those ads are going to run -- you know the movie 27 minute movie that the gingrich campaign is going to run or super pack is -- it's going to be one sob story after another. >> bill: i want to get you on the record. do you think this is payback, gingrich doesn't think he can get the nomination but he is going to destroy romney in the process because he is angry what

happened in iowa? >> look at newt's numbers in new hampshire. numbers are low. he has been on the attack. he knows it's going to hurt him. he knows it was uncle newt who rose to the top of the pile early on, but that is over. he this is angry newt, old newt. >> bill: he is willing to go down in flames but he wants to take romney with him. >> that is my interpretation. >> bill: that is why we have you here. i think you are absolutely right that there will be a lot of negative campaigning against romney in south carolina. here is the difference than what happened to gingrich in iowa. romney has resources to counter that. he has enough money to counter the ads and play it in that is effective and he could turn the table. these guys are liars and desperate. >> i'm not sure the money is decisive.

you have to have the message, as well. if you watched him yesterday morning, he had trouble handling the bain issue. he didn't handle it very well. i'm sure between now and south carolina they'll work it out, but still, you have to have a good story. let's see if can withstand it. and you know the democrats are going hit him really hard with this if he is the nominee so it's how the process works. >> bill: thank you very much. plenty more ahead. former spokesman robert gibbs directs curses toward michelle obama. chris wallace and deb wi watson schultz having a shootout about the solyndra deal. stay tuned for those reports. it's the only calcium supplement that can be taken with or without food. that's why my doctor recommends citracal maximum. it's all about absorption.

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buck, a group of corporate raiders headed by mitt romney, more ruthless than wall street. for fence of thousands of americans, the suffering begin, when mitt romney came to town. >> bill: kelly evans who has been researching it. based on your research kelly, is he predatory capitalist? >> we have been researching the situation and came out with a great in-depth piece took a look at all itself companies from 1984 to 1989. the question has been through throughout this period was bain. 30% of the companies that bain invested in during that period wound up clapping filed for bankruptcy or not returning the money they originally invested. that sounds like a high rate but

analysis how other companies, as the high rate. when you think bain was there to do, find struggling companies to turn them around you are going to expect degree of failure. are people more upset for romney for successes or failures at bain capital. >> bill: i'm more concerned with whether he is a predatory capitalist. there are a lot of raiders that go in and they fire everybody and try to turn around at and sell it as profit. >> i think the exact opposite, think investment bankers make it more efficient. >> bill: there is a degree. there is ruthless people that go in and they just go in with a big hammer. there are others who try to buy the companies and turn them around in a benign way for the good of everybody. >> you don't put the money into an institution to close it up and how do you make money out of that. it depends. if you go into an organization and close down an inefficient

planted you are redistributing the money that was in plant and put in a more productive place. >> bill: i to challenge you, there are situations where venture capitalists fire everybody and reorganize on a smaller level and sell for a profit. that is what they do. >> very small number of companies that account for the big returns. so private equity does they spread it around to a lot of different companies. >> bill: but which woman is romney? >> he was involved with bain company that took targeted companies they thought they could loet load up with debt, use the equity to increase profits. >> bill: it would be unfair for gingrich or ron paul to say that romney is a predatory capitalist who didn't care about jobs and went in with a hammer. would it be fair to say that, yes or no?

>> predatory capitalism implies malicious intent. i don't think romney had malicious intent. >> bill: grossly unfair. >> you need these people, they make america more efficient. they use capital in the most efficient way. >> bill: are you a romney guy, full disclosure? >> i want the most conservative republican who can win. >> bill: you are not promoting romney? >>, no i'm not. >> bill: so you say it's grossly unfair to portray him as a predatory capitalist and you don't know? >> as my colleague said, romney's experience for bain capital will be a problem for him more than his mormonism. people are going to say, what is private equity? >> bill: stuart has decided that romney has not did anything wrong.

he has decided that. people have to decide whether the challenges from gingrich and paul and santorum have any validity. >> to be a capitalist and make money -- >> folks should be looking at romney with saying, why not. look at him been on the swnie inside of private enterprise. >> keep in mind, private equity he had a period of huge conglomerates and there were concerns whether they were giving the shareholders good returns. >> bill: everybody she read the "wall street journal" piece. when we come back, bernie goldberg, robs gibbs cursed at michelle obama, whoa, that story moments away. [ male announcer ] lately, there's been a seismic shift

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>> bill: i'm bill o'reilly. bernie segment time, new book out alleges the first lady was appearing in public, was far too glamorous in bad economic times. they say it caused angst within the white house so much so that robert gibbs cursed at valerie jarret, michelle close friend and that that included the first lady in the tirade. joining us is mr. goldberg. so does it sound credible to you? >> it really does. not the least reason of which is that david axelrod the president's long time friend and political advisor acknowledged that it happened in an interview with george stephanopolous yesterday. it's part of a bigger picture.

in this particular episode, gibbs apparently was angry that michelle obama was quoted in a book published in france, life in the white house is hell. trying to find out if it was true. nobody from the first lady staff would get back to him. there was tension there. then what you mentioned in the lead-in expensive clothing during hard michelle obama went to a food bank wearing $515 sneakers. gibbs is a guy who understands that images matter. he blew up and he was doing the president and mrs. obama a favor even if they didn't realize it. you don't go to a food bank wearing $515 sneakers. >> bill: shocking part is breach of decorum. i can't imagine the spokesman for ronald reagan cursing at

nancy reagan. we want to be clear about that. gibbs didn't do it face to face. he did it through valerie jarret who a close friend. remember nancy reagan, she was portrayed with the silverware and the plates. can you imagine reagan spokesperson having this kind of a confrontation about how mrs. reagan was behaving. there was recession back then, as well. i can't. breach of decorum is what is shocking about this report. >> i can't picture it either. i agree with you on that. this doesn't shock me. breach of decorum, there was a lot of tension between the first lady and her staff and robs gibbs. at some point in what they felt was private meeting was going to blow and it did. >> bill: that could have led to gibbs getting out of there. knowing the president and first lady a little bit, that was

going to conduct i know was unacceptable. >> we usually don't report internet stuff but we have a running dialogue about racism is in the campaign. there was a picture in which -- throw the picture up now. michelle obama portrayed asthma reantoinetfe. she was in france and famous person that said, let them eat cake when the peasants didn't have anything. the point was to be made along the same lines, while times are tough in america, mrs. obama seems to be living pretty well. the moment the picture went up charges of racism went up. >> michelle obama is going to be the nickelodeon sitcom in which she praises the kids for caring about military families. one of the characters, not knowing how to address the first

lady refers to her as your excellentsy. now a writer put the words in the mouth but that apparently what she says. >> bill: defenders of obama branded it as racist. >> whether you think that is high brow a satire or low brow or whether the comparison is justified or not, you won't believe this. people at home, folks i am not making this up. the l.a. times writes, this is the one sentence that is key sentence. the caricature turf mrs. obama as a queen relies on the racist stereotype of an uppity necessity grow. you can't make this up. bill, last week we said there is going to be charges of racism over and over again during this

campaign. if you disagree with the obamas on just about anything, this is as crazy as it gets. as i say, the comparison to marie antoinette, i don't want to get into whether it's justified. >> bill: it's not justified. >> okay, fine. it's elitism that is what is in play here. >> to rely on images of the uppity knee grow is harmful because when they -- necessity grow, what happens when real racism happens. >> bill: crying wolf. bernie we're going to do late need comedians because there has been a study about the late night comedians about mocking republicans and democrats. it's pretty interesting. thanks a lot. chris wallace and debby schultz

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>> bill: reality check and starts with chris wallace. he looks like a mild-mannered guy but sometimes his ire. >> so was the president responsible for people laying off solyndra? >> no, because the president wasn't the ceo of solyndra. >> chris: excuse me. president was a venture capitalist. he put taxpayer money in solyndra and thousand people lost their jobs. is the president responsible for

the thousand people that their jobs there? >> not even close. but romney is responsible for ceo of companies that he took over. he was the ceo, bain bought these companies. he is not the ceo of solyndra. >> bill: the term splitting hairs comes to mind. the one thing that interesting things is way ron paul is treating his opponents. michele bachmann? >> she doesn't like muslims. she wants to go get them. >> when newt gingrich was called to service in 196ofgs. guess what he thought about danger. he chick ends out on that. he got a, did chick chickened out of that. he is putting he chicken hawk. >> you got a new ad taking

direct aim at senator santorum you called him a washington, d.c. insider and called him corrupt? >> did i make a survey. i think he came out as one of the top corrupt individuals because he took so so much money from the lobbyists. >> bill: mr. paul, not good. check three, nancy pelosi also saying not nice things. >> newt gingrich out on the campaign trail said the dumbest thing he did was sit down on the couch and make an ad with you. >> the association dumbest thing he ever did, think there is plenty of competition. >> bill: kind of hot rhetoric does not help the global warming cause. check four. chris christie again taking no prisoners. >> really?

so may go down but it ain't going to be jobs, sweetheart. >> i have a message, mr. president, this is disoriented anger, your cynicism and division is causing in our country. stop dividing the country, mr. president. >> bill: the liberal press loves to portray the occupy wall street movement as a law abiding protest. the head of police union of washington, d.c. has written a letter that crime has increased since d.c. police had to deal with the occupiers. pinheads and patriots on deck, tim tebow, p&p moments away. -he! whee whee wheeeeeeeeeeee! pure adrenaline.

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gimme 43 miles per gallon. and the rush of 200 horsepower. what i want is the best of both worlds. [ male announcer ] introducing the reinvented 2012 camry hybrid. from toyota. ♪ it rare rarely goes on sale. a light weight garment that will keep you warm even if you live in north dakota, and check it out on bill o'reilly.com along with other gear. if you sign up. get my best selling book "killing lincoln" a terrific deal we're carrying over into the new year. mike from massachusetts, thanks for making the point that by not recognizing silent

the a.c.l.u. is violating the rights of the unborn. i've been waiting for years for someone to make at that point. the reproductive rights crew loses the high ground on the human rights issue. you in the media will mention that, but i think that's why the majority of americans have now turned against abortion according to the polls. dr. from new jersey. they've had a long-term love an i fair with the roe vs wade and they treasure framing the termination of a pregnancy as a right. and dobbs will the chevy volt had me screaming at the tv. i own a volt and that's the best car i've ever had. the volt is not doing well, because it costs more than a similar gas consuming car. the obama administration would like to drive up the price of gas to make the electric cars more attractive. from alberta, canada. i'm 17 and notice you've been

critical of ron paul and think he has a great economic plan. my main criticism is his isolationist foreign policy i believe would endanger everyone in north america, including you guys up in canada. and from new york, bill, i dislike you, but like dana perino very much. which proves that while you may be terribly misguided, john, you do have good taste. and ann from texas, bill, the other night you said one of your guest spoke for 60% of the time and i'd rather hear the guests 75% and you for 25. and then the factor is not for you. can't enforce the no spin zone and challenge guests unless the time is even. and bill, my wife and i finished listening to killing lincoln four kids underage ten, anytime we turned it off, they got upset, wanting to hear more. welling, they are brilliant your --

urchins, we can agree on that. and angry birds like it. and the denver quarterback brays on the sidelines, locker room, and everywhere else and he's mocked for doing it. yesterday the broncos defeated the steelers in overtime. >> the broncos have been in three overtime games this here and won them all. at the 30, to the 20, and to the 10, and they won on the first play of overtime! so many doubters out there, about denver all season long. >> so, i ask you, la he understands and gentlemen, pittsburgh's a much better team than the broncos on paper. are you still discounting tebow's connection to god? if you do that, you might be pinheaded although the deity has a tough one in new england

next weekend. and that's the bill o'reilly.com and talking points memo posted each evening on that website and also please spout out about the factor from anywhere in the worldment now we're everywhere, you can't get away from the factor, we're everywhere, now that disney is putting us on down in orlando. there was a last holdout, but there was a big torch-like parade going to the magic castle, for whatever it is, the kingdom, and they were going to burn it down and they said, all right, we'll give you the factor, if that's what it takes to calm the crowd down. anyway, we're everywhere now, out there in samoa, i know you guys are watching out there. o'reilly@foxnews.com, if you want to spout off. o'reilly@foxnews.com and brand new world, do not be a luggen. [laughter] >> i found this word, do not be an loogan when