unafraid. captions by closed captioning services unless bill says no. >> bill: "the o'reilly factor" is on. tonight: >> first of all, as you know, the pacs that run ads on various candidates as we unfortunately -- >> answer the question first. >> we have plenty of time. i will get there i will do it in the order i want to do. >> did republic frontrunner mitt romney escape the barbs in the debate or did he get hurt? charles krauthammer and dick morris have some thoughts. >> it sounds as if you're seeking to belittle people. >> bill: newt gingrich under fire for his statements about poor americans did the speaker turn the tables on juan williams? >> i know among the politically correct you are not supposed to use facts that run comfortable. >> bill: ron paul once again saying it is america's fault that foreign terrorists are targeting us. >> we endlessly bomb these

countries and then we wonder why they get upset with us? >> bill: the best debate coverage anywhere on the factor tonight. caution, you are about to enter the no spin zone, the factor begins right now. captions by closed captioning services >> bill: hi, i'm bill o'reilly. thanks for watching us tonight. the best debate so far. that is the subject of this evening's talking points memo. lots of action last night in myrtle beach as the republic guise brought a search of urgency to the floor. everybody knows mitt romney is building a commanding lead so his challengers had to make some points and to some extent they did. let's run it down. frontrunner mitt romney had a so-so night. not making any dramatic statements or breaking new ground. he was very complimentary to the other candidates going out of his way to agree with them. the governor portraying himself as elder states men,

trying to build collisions wherever he -- build coalitions wherever he can. >> governor, will you release your income tax records. >> i hadn't planned on releasing tax records because the law requires us to release all of our assets, things we own. that i have already released. it's a pretty full disclosure. if that's been the tradition, i'm not opposed to doing that time will tell. >> bill: not a good answer for the governor. tom will not tell anything. romney should release his tax returns now or it looks like he is hiding something. today he said he would make his returns public in the spring and admitted that most of his income was taxed at 15%, the long-term cap gains rate. romney well understands that he will be branded as under taxed but that's a myth. long term gap gains are taxed different rate for a reason. he has nothing to be ashamed of. law requires. what liberal america does not seem to realize is that risk

reward. you invest, you might lose. if you your winnings are taxed at a higher rate, fewer people will invest. are we all getting this? even you warren buffet? there must be incentives to invest. or the economy will crumble. paging common sense. please report to the progressive movement. but back to romney. talking points believes the governor is waffling because he doesn't want to disrupt the south carolina and florida votes with the tax return issue. understandable. but, again, the folks deserve the information. as far as newt gingrich is concerned, he had a good night because he challenged liberal orthodoxy. >> my email account, my twitter account has been inundated with people of all races who are asking if your comments are not intended to belittle the poor and racial minority. you saw some of this during a visit to a black church in south carolina where a woman asked you why you refer to president obama as the food

stamp president. it sounds as if you are seeking to belittle people. [boos] >> well, first of all, juan, the fact is that more people have been put on food stamps by barack obama than any president in american history. [cheers and applause] now, i know among the politically correct you are not supposed to use facts that are uncomfortable. >> bill: well the associated press checked the speaker's facts and it is that more americans are using food stamps than ever before. right now more than 46 million folks are getting that welfare entitlement. but the obama administration can make the case that in a severe recession food stamps are vital. so the voter will have to decide who is right. ron paul? well, more of the same. he continues to believe that the u.s.a. brought the 9/11 attacks on itself. >> we endlessly bomb these countries and then we wonder

why they get upset with us? [boos] >> and, yet, it continues on and on. >> bill: speaking as an american, not a pundit, i would not feel safe with congressman paul protecting me. also, i fundamentally disagree with paul on crime. >> blacks and minorities who are involved with drugs arrested disproportionately. they are tried, imprisoned disproportionately. sometimes people can use drugs and arrested three times and never committed a violent acted and they can go to prison for life. >> bill: the fact is that dealing hard drugs like heroin, meth and cocaine is a violent crime, congressman. those narcotics sometimes kill people. often enslave them. and drug-involved parents often abuse and neglect their children. the social problems caused by addiction are enormous. and have cost this country dearly. and paul is feeling sorry for these drug predators? give me a break. if drug dealing isn't a violent crime, nothing is.

and on the subject of crime, rick santorum made a big deal out of allowing felons to vote after they fulfill their sentences. >> do you believe that felons who have served their time, gone through probation and parole, exhausted their entire sentence should they be given the right to have a vote? the bill i voted on was the martin luther king voting rights bill. and this was a provision that said, particularly targeted african-americans and i voted to allow them to have their voting rights back once they completed their sentence. >> governor you have 30 seconds to respond. >> yeah, i don't think people who have committed violent crimes should be allowed to vote again. that's my own view. >> bill: i agree with governor romney. if an american commits a violent, a violent crime against another person, he or she should never be allowed to vote again. that's because the victim never recovers from the violence. it's always with them. their life is altered forever. violence is simply unacceptable and far too often

condoned in this country. i understand senator santorum's point of view i respectfully disagree. as for governor perry he was a minor player last night but he scored with this. >> governor perry, are you projecting on this martin luther king jr. day that the federal government has no business scrutinizing the voting laws of states where minorities were once denied the right to vote? >> i'm saying that the state of texas is under assault by federal government. i am saying also that south carolina, is at war with this federal government and with this administration. >> bill: that was a smart play by perry. south carolina fought hard with feds over the boeing corporation where the labor relations people in d.c. tried to prevent boeing from moving to south carolina because it's not a union state. the case was settled and boeing is moving to the palmetto state but it was a nasty fight. the feds tried to intrude on

economy so perry was shrewd to make that point. really in the end the governor of texas has no chance to get the republic nomination neither does ron paul. after saturday's vote it is likely to come down to a race between mitt romney and newt gingrich and rick santorum a far shot. the likely nail down the republic candidate once and for all. now, we will have charles krauthammer coming up. he has some thoughts about last night's debate. later on dick morris also will weigh in and we're coming righ

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lifelock service guarantee cannot be offered to residents of new york. >> bill: continuing now with the lead story on the fox news channel. joining us from washington charles krauthammer. after all my bloviating, charles, did i make any mistakes? >> i think astonishing not. [ laughter ] gingrich obviously won the night. he won big. ron paul lost really big. romney came out sort of so-so. nicked slightly. he played defense. he is sitting on a lead. he played prevent defense. he will add a couple of field goals. how could he not have been prepared for a question on his tax returns? and how key not have prepared a nice short succinct humane answer about what he did at bain, private capital really

helps the economy and helps individual workers in the end. he didn't really have that he kind of stumbled around. i thought santorum did well. but, remember, because he is in competition with gingrich, the fact that gingrich did so well means that santorum actually i think lost ground. >> bill: he overshadowed him. gingrich, we have juan williams on tomorrow night. one thing i noticed that very few people picked up is that juan williams' question about gingrich's statements on poor people was basically challenging the speaker to say do you believe that the poor in america don't have a work ethic? that's where juan was going. gingrich very shrewdly avoided that didn't have anything to do with that. he went right into the failed liberal policies of enabling. he doesn't want to enable. and that just played to the republic crew big time. but i think that in a

general -- look, what gingrich does he have well is he plays to the choir. but in a general election, i don't know whether americans can get behind a guy like newt gingrich because he is so blunt. what do you think? >> well, on this particular question, the way he answered would have played to any kind of audience. what he did and the reason that was such a winning answer, it actually got a standing ovation, which is fairly unusual in a debate like this, was because he was able to frame in a minute, in 60 seconds, the fundamental difference between the understanding of compassion on the left versus understanding of what compassion is on the right. and he pointed out that the liberal view is handouts and dependency and paternalism. that's ever since the great society. and the view on the right is it's a job. it's independence, it's dignity. and it's a person standing on

his own. he did that in a very depth way and that will hit it out of the park. that will play to conservative or independence audience which is where the election will be won or lost. >> bill: with the vote being divided between gingrich and santorum, is locks like romney will prevail. there is one more debate. romney has to step it up. he can't be waffling around with the tax question or the bain question. he has to come out and be stronger. i think if romney has a bad debate performance on thursday, he might lose south carolina. he might lose. this is a very crucial debate coming up. if gingrich can debate the performance which he had which was smart one and romney sits on his heels. is he good at deflecting attacks but he didn't have any sort of inspiring, even one inspiring moment. if that happens again, it is

possible, despite the big lead that we see in the polls now. but there for monday and sunday and saturday, it is possible to get a gingrich surge. >> bill: no doubt. south carolina is that kind of place. >> i still think that romney is odds on to win the nomination. >> bill: yeah. i do too. >> however, it ends the short circuit. it means it's not going to be over on january 31. >> bill: this is the last hurrah for rick perry, i believe, he will be out after south carolina. because even though he has a lot of money it's pretty much running low. he is not going to get any to go to florida. you need a lot to run there. ron paul he can hang around. forget it it's just his fanatics, that's 11%, 10%, is he done. you have got 3 left. i don't understand, you know, when i said in the talking points, governor romney, he is paying 15% on his cap gains, okay. that's a law. and there is a reason that law is there. it's not to help rich fat

cats. it's to encourage people to put money into the system. and why don't you just explain that? why don't you say here is my tax return. here is my 15% that i pay because i don't have a salary now. i'm living off my investment income. this is why it's there. i would even make it lower. i think romney even wants it lower. this is why. you get money in. you get expansion of the economy. everybody works. i don't know what they are afraid of. i think they are intimidated by the press. i really think the press intimidates romney and some of the others. >> i don't know if it's the press. but he doesn't -- he simply doesn't have the capacity to explain with some color and sort of force conservative ideas. he is a businessman. he, you know, he looks like he is chairing a meeting of the board. is he a competent guy. but, for example, when he gets hit on the private equity at this time stuff, why doesn't he just say-o-why didn't he say in the debate last night? look, when the democrats, the ones who supposedly are the ones who are the champion of

the middle class or working class took control of g.m., and chrysler, hundreds, thousands of people lost their jobs dealerships were shut down, the pontiac and other lines were shut down. you have to do it to save the company to enable it to survive and then to grow it as it is now beginning to grow and restore the jobs. >> bill: logical point. >> if he had just explained that and took the playbook out of what the democrats have done, he would have had a forceful answer. but for some reason he simply deflected it. >> bill: i don't think his preppers, i don't think the guys preparing him are the best. that's what it has got to be. he should be smart enough to know it himself. charles, we appreciate it we are asking you to vote in our biffle o'reilly.com poll. will newt gingrich's attacks on romney about bain help or hurt him in south carolina? yes or no. give us the results for that poll question. how did the republic candidates come across

personality-wise? who is charming and who is a curmudgeon? that report after these messages.

>> bill: personal story segment tonight, there are a bunch of polls out, all of them showing mitt romney leading in south carolina, florida, and nationwide. are a last night's debate those numbers could change, of course, joining us from washington fox news analyst mary katharine ham and democratic strategist in for juan williams tonight. we have asked both contestants and there are lovely prizes to select their favorite moment in the debate last night. here is mary katharine's. >> we are in south carolina. south carolina in the revolutionary war had a young 13-year-old named andrew jackson.

he was sabered by a british officer and wore a scar his whole life. andrew jackson had a pretty clear cut idea about america's enemies. kill them. [cheers] >> bill: why? are you blood thirsty? why is that your favorite moment? >> i think it's interesting what it shows about newt gingrich who talked about the exchange with juan williams and their personalities romney vs. gingrich. this is -- he speaks with a little bit of flourish. he brings some history in. he tells a story. and he is not afraid to land a punch on someone. now that is he back to shifting going after moderators, media and democrats, is he looking much stronger. >> bill: blood personality trait as he is. as i said to charles krauthammer, in the general race, not the republic primary, but the general race, when he goes kill them. >> yes. >> bill: i'm not sure, you know the independent women are going kill who? who are we going to kill? >> i think you are right. he doesn't have a soft touch as romney kind of does sometimes. and i think that would be a problem with independent

voters. i think this illustrates what people are thirsting for in the g.o.p. primary. they are missing that little spark. >> bill: eviscerate president obama, that's for sure. >> they are missing that spark from romney. he does have trouble. newt gingrich is like morality combat to romney's super mario brothers. >> bill: this is a video game reference you are making here? >> yes. >> bill: very trendy actually, sort of dated. >> bill: here is robert zimmerman's choice for the best clip last night. >> this is typical of what both senator santorum and i. super pac influence how much influence he would have as president. >> i can't call these people and direct them to do that as you know. that would violate federal law; is that correct? >> absolutely. >> all right. so i can't do what you just asked me to do but i can't tell them publicly as i can here if there is anything that's inaccurate in any ads to support me i hope they take it off and don't run it.

if we are talking about super pac ads that are inaccurate. mr. speaker you have a super pac ad that attacks me. now, just hold on. that attacks me. it's probably the biggest homosexual since big foot. >> bill: you selected that why? >> because that was a very revealing moment about mitt romney. here he is is now in his 16th debate. while he is, in fact, in the 16th debate now bill, he still can't give a straight answer about his relationship to super pacs. let's remember, bill. >> bill: whoa, wait. the federal law says that romney can't be directly involved in any way, that means telling them to shut up or take something out. >> let's remember, back in june and july his campaign said we welcome their importance and he also appeared at fundraisers for these super pacs. >> bill: you think it's disingenuous. >> in the same way he can't give a straight answer about the number of jobs created at bain and same way he can't publicly discuss whether he is going to reveal his taxes or not. >> bill: i thought romney won that exchange with gingrich

because he he did point out the federal law says and this all of them including every democratic candidate uses the same reuse. they get the super pacs to do their dirty work. i can't do that i can't control them. they all do it? >> there is a big difference. democrats acknowledge it's a disgrace and put legislation in to change it despite what mitt romney and newt gingrich is saying. >> bill: who is is going to buy that when you have media matters, when you have move on and george soros and all of these hatchet men. who is going to buy that nobody, robert. >> i am for public financing of campaigns. >> bill: so am i. they are both dirty gut fighters. there is nobility in this at all. mary katharine, do you believe that newt gingrich won last night? is this going to be another resurgence of the speaker? >> i think he did show exactly what people like. getting off the bain stuff was a good move for him. i think he can likely pick up a few points. look, a third of south carolina voters were undecided before the debate. if he has strong strong

debates. i'm not sure. >> bill: santorum is going for the evangelical vote. it's a division situation. because santorum did well last night he just didn't knock it out of the park like gingrich did. >> he does a fine job. he didn't knock it out of the park. he does have to compete directly with gingrich. super pac argument becomes complicated. i do think romney won that exchange. in iowa this year, no super pac, the highest spending super pack plus the highest paying candidate, perry did not spend more than obama spent in iowa by himself in 2008. i'm not sure that they can make the argument they are so crazy. >> bill: last question. i think the obama white house is preparing for romney. would that be accurate? >> i think it's fair to say. i must get 15 emails today from the democratic national committee all focusing on romney. made a point before. i think it's well-taken. when you look at that debate, that wasn't a debate about -- it was infomercial for angry

management therapy. >> bill: this guy is going to go in with a sledgehammer and that's what we want. >> when it comes down to choosing a president, then it's a whole different dynam minchts it is. >> obama is going to go dirty. >> remember howard dean in the primaries? the guy was turning into a ware wolf. >> governor huckabee set about romney more positions than the. >> dirty just like that. >> bill: thank you. the death toll keeps rising in that awful cruise ship crackup and indeed the captain may now be charged with manslaughter. is it legal on the case? then dick morris on last night's debate. did it change any hearts and minds? does morris even have a heart? we hope you stay tuned to those reports.

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average worker $500 million. cbs news investigating reporter sharyl attkisson reports there are 11 other energy companies in trouble. 10 receiving big government subsidies from the obama administration. here to run it down for us fox business anchor john stossel. have you been talking to the energy department today, right? i bet they were thrilled to hear from you, huh? >> well, they just got back to me. so i haven't had a chance to check out what they say. but they say the cbs story is wrong. i mean, the cbs story is very juicy. i think there is a lot of truth in it. >> bill: let's just run it down. nevada, geothermal. all the same kind of stuff. gets $100 million in energy department loan guarantees. >> why not? harry reid says saudi arabia. my state is the saudi arabia of geothermal energy. >> bill: now it's in trouble. sun power 1.2 billion. >> bigger than solyndra.

>> bill: sold to a french company. the french people got our money. >> but the energy department says and that's evidence we are going to get our money back. >> bill: how? >> this big company has resources. >> bill: it's in france. >> there are contracts. we can get money from france? >> bill: we gave france 1.2 billion because this company went bankrupt and the french guy swooped in, probably related to romney, grabbed the company and went back to paris with our money, stossel. >> i can't believe i'm defending the energy department here. they shouldn't be giving out any of this. don't you find this troubling? >> sure. none of this. they shouldn't be trying to pick clean energy winners. they have a terrible record. >> bill: we can go down the other ten but you are getting the idea here. what the obama administration tried to do was engineer green projects with taxpayer money. >> obama and bush, too. >> bill: a little bit. but it was really stepped up

in the last three years. and it hasn't worked. it isn't working. >> it almost never works. and government shouldn't do this. especially when we are going broke. >> bill: okay. so the french get 1.2 billion and they are out of town. all these other companies are going down the drain. and the energy department says the cbs story is not true? >> they are not going down the drain. they have reserves. the countries are not bankrupt. it's only 2% of the money. and we're going to get the money back. >> bill: that's what they say. we are fair and balance sod there you go. your guy ron paul is toast. is he toast. >> so you say. >> bill: yeah. you want to bet? >> no. [ laughter ] >> bill: there we go. >> we already have a bet. i'm not going to bet more. >> bill: okay. i don't understand why you like this guy. you don't want this guy in charge. you don't. >> i do. >> bill: you really do. >> i would rather have him in charge than all the other guys. >> bill: the iranians they are going over there with the nukes and stossel? >> what do you want to do go in there and bomb them?

>> bill: if it's necessary i would take out their air force and navy, yes, i would. >> they are two and a half times the size of iraq. >> bill: so what? i wouldn't put boots on the ground but our air force and navy could disseminate their infrastructure if they keep messing around i would absolutely consider doing that. >> that wouldn't stop their program. >> bill: do you know who neville chamberland was? >> yes. >> bill: that's who this guy is with a bad jacket. >> hitler had power iran does not bill are you saying if iran has power it's not more dangerous than hitler. >> a nuclear weapon is not something to put in the hands of these people. and everybody knows it except you and ron paul. last word? >> we can't stop every rogue state in the world. >> bill: we can stop those people. >> from acquiring a nuclear weapon. we can't afford the military we have now. let alone a bigger one. >> bill: all right. everybody knows the way we feel. and can you write to stossel and i'm sure he would be happy to hear from you. >> i would. >> bill: when we come right back, the death toll rising in

italy after a cruise ship carrying more than 4,000 hits the rock. will the captain be charged with murder? is it legal is next.

>> is it legal segment tonight, awful cruise ship crackup in italy. 4,000 people were on the costa concordia which is associated with the carnival cruise line outfit. when the shipped crashed into rocks off the coast of italy. numbers are missing, including two americans from minnesota. captain of the ship facing manslaughter charges. with us to analyze attorneys and fox news analyst lis wiehl the author of the new book "the truth advantage" and john that criminal defense attorney in for kimberly guilfoyle. maritime law that's different from land law. >> yes, it is. it applies only to the civil

liability in this case. under maritime law international treaty says that people, passengers lived even people of a states that didn't live can sue only up to $75,000 unless they can show recklessness which is a a huge issue in this case. that's only applicable to the civil liability. not the criminal charges. >> you figure that the cruise line will settle with all the 4,000 and give them a check for whatever amount of money. but the people who died, obviously get hurt, their families are going to go in for big big. >> bill: they have to show recklessness under this maritime law. >> bill: if you sail your boat into the rocks and the report are initially and we don't want to convict anybody that the guy was way off course. >> right. >> bill: they have a 911 call that shows the guy is an idiot he didn't go on deck where he should be. >> hanging out with the passengers doing nothing. giving no alert out there. he veered off course. he was set on a course. they had given him. he veered off that course. >> bill: we are going to fly you jona over to italy and you will defend this guy because you are a defense attorney how

do you defend the captain from manslaughter charges which he is facing. >> the problem with manslaughter charges there doesn't need to be intent. if a prosecutor can show that he was reckless that manslaughter charge is going to stick. >> bill: reckless is a subjective word, is it not? >> no. it does have legal definition. stupidity doesn't normally lead to criminal negligence. recklessness does. the captain will have to show i wasn't reckless. >> bill: this is what i tried to do and this is why i was in the rocks. you could gefned this -- defend this guy. it's not a slam dunk. >> it's not a slam dunk. i'm liking this as a prosecutor. the ship had gone down this way before. they were given exact course instructions and he completely veered off. >> bill: he has to explain why he is off. >> he wanted to show off. >> bill: show off how? >> we don't know to whom but he wanted to get close to do bye i'm close here now.

>> bill: that doesn't make any sense at all. >> of course it doesn't. that's why he was reckless. >> bill: wiehl is convicting the guy but i'm not sure. >> i'm sorry but i am. >> bill: went round and round with the felons a after they complete their sentences other thingshould not have the right to vote and you say. >> i say yeah after they serve their sentences. >> bill: why? >> because here is why. we don't want to give felons an opportunity to reoffend. >> bill: it if they can't vote they will go out and shoot somebody? >> let's give them jobs and restore their lives. let's let them live like normal human beings. >> bill: two different things. >> i agree with johnna. drug sales are violent crimes. violent felons. once they are out and served their time and what santorum wanted they should be able to apply and get their -- >> bill: why? >> i'm not looking at it from a public policy eighth amendment cruel and unusual punishment that sanction is supposed to end. >> bill: cruel and unusual. >> the sanction the prison and

parole all of that is supposed to end when the prison and the parole are over. we're not talking either about giving -- >> bill: someone who gets the hell kicked out of them or shot or stabbed or the kid who gets shot, does that end? >> of course it doesn't. >> bill: then they have to pay a price. >> they are paying the price. they go to prison. >> bill: that's not enough. >> it says bill o'reilly that's not what the system and that's not what the constitution says. >> bill: voting is a privilege. >> no. it's a privilege. >> bill: it's a privilege for an american citizen and the american government can take it away. >> and it does. >> bill: and should. >> it does when they are incarcerated not after that it's a violation of the 14th amendment. >> bill: we will do a poll on this. after the gingrich poll. i'm so adamantly opposed to teght letting violent offenders vote again and the two ladies disagree with me. remember barack obama's uncle illegally in the country in massachusetts. he gets picked up drinking in a car and now they want to deport him, right? well, his defense attorney says the cop who arrested him

should be investigated, right? that's where this is going. >> the defense attorney is saying look this cop is involved in 16 car accidents in about 15 or 16 years on the force. nine of them apparently have been said to be his fault. >> bill: what does that have to do with this guy drinking in the car being here illegally. >> nothing. it's a good defense lawyer. good employee. >> the -- good ploy. >> nothing to do with the actual stop. the police officer said i had cause. >> bill: isn't it despicable lawyer thing. >> that's what defense lawyers do. >> bill: i don't care whether it happens a lot. it's not germane to the case. >> probable cause. did the cop have probable cause to pull him over? >> the guy was going through a stoplight, almost hit the cop. >> bill: this guy, the attorney is trying to say the cop is so incompetent he probably didn't know what he was doing. i will have to side with the law enforcement, it has nothing to do with the case. >> nothing to do with the .14 that he blew on othe back.

>> bill: thanks a lot. we appreciate it coming right back with dick morris, dramatic analysis of the debate last night. it better be dramatic, morris.

>> bill: back of the book segment tonight, let's go back to our lead story, the republic debate last night and bring in the purveyor of dick morris.com. mr. morris is in south florida this evening and says i am wrong about some of my points in the talking points memo that krauthammer said i was right about. all right. get specific. >> okay. first of all, i have a heart. it's not a bleeding heart but i have a heart. >> bill: all right. secondly, santorum has a shot with the endorsement of the evangelicals, he has a good chance. and, remember, that gingrich still has a lot of personal issues to deal with that are difficult for him in south

carolina. not necessarily that santorum is going to win. but that santorum is definitely in the hunt. paul killed himself but santorum didn't. but the main thing is this will not be resolved, will not be resolved in florida. because most likely it is going to be a romney/gingrich race. two-way race like that may well fall into the pattern, i suspect it might, of the kennedy, carter race of 1980. where one week kennedy won, the next week carter won, the next week kennedy won, the next week carter won. what was happening is you had two candidates. at that time each of whom was fatally flawed. kennedy by chappaquittic, carter by being carter. when it looked like carter was going in god not him. they voted for kennedy and vice is a versa. here it's different. you have two good candidates. everybody agrees about everything about both of them. they all agree that romney would have the better shot at

defeating obama. they also agree that gingrich is more conservative. they agree that romney probably has the best appeal to independent voters. they think gingrich is the most reliable conservative positions. therefore, it's a question of emphasis. i think what's going to happen voters are going to hypothetically vote for romney in florida. next set of primaries a surge for gingrich. romney and gingrich -- bill, one second. >> bill: look, if the polls hold for romney in south carolina, he wins and gingrich and santorum split the vote, all right, that means that romney goes into florida where he is already running television spots. spots are already being run, organizations are already formed there while the other two don't have any spots on the air and no organizations. santorum's money will dry up. unless he comes in second. not going to get any money.

doesn't have enough money to buy any florida air, which is expensive. gingrich, i believe, will be able to go down and probably take from santorum to build a bigger base. but he is still going to be up against it in a big state like florida, which cost an enormous amount of money to buy advertising that set up your people all over that huge state. so, if, if romney takes south carolina and florida, i don't see how anybody could stop him. you know, money wise, they need money. where is the money going to come from? >> you are correct, bill, that if romney wins south carolina, this race is more or less over. >> bill: okay. thank you. >> one point win. i think that romney really jeopardized his south carolina win last night. i think his performance was really weak. and i thought gingrich's was really strong. i also thought that whereas gingrich served red meat, santorum served chicken.

by the way white meat chicken and by the way because it's a republic debate nobody served pork. but the point is i think that santorum was lawyer-like and detailed. not inspiring. >> got caught up with felony thing that nobody cares about. >> i think that gingrich was really strong. >> i can't argue with that. >> my premise here, bill, is that if santorum fades and gingrich beats romney, in south carolina,. >> bill: then it's all a game change. >> ongoing fight between the two of them that could go on. >> bill: io disagree with that. >> if romney were to win south carolina it's over. >> bill: folks have to understand watching tonight that money, as and we don't think that's good, but money drives these campaigns. you have to pay your people. you have to set up offices. you have to get the media involved. you have to buy your spots. the pacs can help you. but you have got to have that infrastructure.

you have got to fly around, okay? you have got to go here and go there and put people in hotels and feed them and santorum doesn't have any money right now. he needs a big thing. and, plus, there is another debate. i expect romney has got to go on thursday. it's an easier debate for him it's on cnn, not on fox. it will be easier for romney there because they will be going out with the knives out the cnn people i guarantee you against gingrich and santorum. give me give you the last word. >> romney was overconfident going into the debate. >> bill: he played it too safe. >> money meant very little in south carolina because it is such a tiny state. it means everything in florida because it's such an expensive state. so, basically, if romney does he have well on thursday night, and wins the primary on saturday, it's over. >> bill: okay. i have got to go. >> if gingrich beats romney, it could go on for a while.

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>> my job is to know all the flavors of the month, marty. i don't spend as much time on pop culture as i used to because of the vast decline. it used to be fun to watch elvis, the beatles, the disco stuff, and now we have snooki, the car dashiance and a show glorifying unwed moms. life is short. you know what i mean. not going to get into those. greg from texas. >> never underestimate the finesse factor, craig. by the way, just 200 tickets remain for the show in can't barbara on the 25th. i will been durham, north carolina, february 3rd, friday night. tickets are going fast. check it out on billoreilly.com. aging rock stars, huh? and massachusetts.

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foxnews.com. the new word is jobation. >> good morning, everyone. wednesday, january 18, 2012. i'm gretchen carlson. thanks for sharing your time today. the white house under lockdown after hundreds of protesters stormed the fence and tossed a smoke bomb at the president's home. we're live with the very latest on that situation. >> meanwhile, call him captain coward. audio recordings show the captain of that doomed cruise liner didn't want to return to the sinking ship because it was dark! boo-hoo! hear the evidence for yourself. we've got the tape. >> all right. sarah palin finally backing the republican candidate but there's an expiration date on this endorsement. we'll explore. "fox & friends" starts now.