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>> i certainly think it is. to think about it, we've had no new stimulus, we haven't had new tax on the rich. so, i think conceptually something is happening here and we finally figured out we need slowly stimulus not growing stimulus. we need to cut tax, not all of a sudden want to hike taxes and most importantly, we have to challenge the regulations, not coming up with new regulations, but i think the most important thing, brenda, we need less government employees, not more government employees, and we do that, we'll have more days like today. where stocks take off and employment takes off. >> well, susan, is it what the government is not doing or what it did? >> well, that's exactly right, brenda, you look at the stimulus that we've put in place in 2009. if you look at the payroll tax cut and everybody kept saying the policies aren't working and they've failed. in fact, they worked. we're seeing it now. the programs don't take place overnight and we're seeing tremendous growth coming out

of what were good sound, reasoned effective policies and i have to say the idea that the government is not helping support this economy right now. i mean, the fed has pumped so much liquidity into the market and it's on an iv drip. so, this is a very supportive market right now. >> we do have low he interest rates. we do have stocks running away, gary b. is that because the government's doing something or because it's not? >> well, i think, the because it's not doing something and you know, look, susan is right and makes some valid points, but she's ultimately essentially wrong. the whole reason for for the stimulus. >> brenda: and you don't talk that way to toby. >> toby's bigger than me (laughter) >> was to bring down unemployment and if that's the way that we're grading the stimulus, we have to give it an f. on the flip side, studies have shown that government, and sources, helps to a certain extent. until to gets to about 20% of

gdp. and anything over that, government acts as a drag on that, and that's what we are a starting to see government share of gdp well over 20%, 24, 25% and it's going to increase, just per interest payments alone. so, this uber stimulus that you're seeing, the effects are going to felt negatively for years. >> jonas, that's kind of an econ, 101, what you call crowding out. but, is this really an impactive stimulus? some of that money at that was spent did have an impact, didn't it? >> yeah, the entire housing market is being supported by housing stimulus, and don't forget, the government did a lot in tax cuts, even recently with the payroll tax cuts and let's not wish too much for gridlock, if they don't do anything, taxes go up quickly, first the payroll and the bush tax cuts go away. you want to compromise, a little bit of doing stuff and

what we've seen is the good jobs with the stock market the last few weeks, we probably don't need a whole lot more government. you want the government to pick up the slack, but the private sector is coming back right now and the government can slowly get out of the way now. out after recession and i can i think it's worth noting that we had a lot of stuff in the bad parts, it wasn't all brilliant stuff, but at this point. we don't need a whole other round of anything necessarily. >> business cycle, toby? >> cycle. gosh, call me an old-fashioned person here, but what happens with the the business cycle is demand becomes lower, that's where our recession comes from and people stop buying stuff and that creates ultimately pent up demand and we're start to go get to that self-reinforcing point. that's exactly the time of point you want to be stepping out because in essence, idea of government providing some stimulus early in a recession is so they can step out and it will be a shorter one. i still am confused by how the government has decided that he they want to manage the business cycle, and that

recessions and all the good things, yes, the good things that come from recession, are not allowed to do. and what we needed more was time. and now, we're starting to see the benefits. time business cycle works. >> but don't forget, you know, toby and gary, you know. we started in 2010, we were starting to see, remember those famous green shoots and everyone thought here is the the recovery. we'll have the summer of recovery. >> we weren't seeing any green shoots. >> and quickly, because-- >> in the stock market now. >> right, exactly, i'm saying we start today see what we're calling the green shoots a couple of years ago and here comes the recovery and it petered out just as quickly. before we get too bullish, remember, that our gdp forecast for this year, are roughly 2 1/2% on a good day. so, we're not sort of, you know, busting the doors down just then and i don't think it's the time to take our foot off the gas as-- >> well, speaking of foot on the gas. the automobile sales is a perfect example of the business cycle, by, you know, cars get old and people need

to he replace them as soon as they felt they couldn't wait and they bought and we saw this cycle come up and you're going to see this as the business cycle expands. but, i'm not afraid that we're falling off the cliff yet. >> go ahead, gary b. >> the unfortunately part is we won't be taking the foot off the gas, just because we now have embedded such a high baseline, social security keeps rising, medicare, interest payments. and even the defense budget as much as they talk about bringing it down, is going up, so, unfortunately, we could jump out of the car right now and the gas pedal is right down on the bottom. >> and let's tend that metaphor. >> brenda: well, bob, what do you say to susan. >> no gas pedal, bob. >> brenda: and the stimulus has done something? >> well, i don't believe it has. i mean, i think what it is, toby is exactly right. i mean, corporate, is corporate spending is coming back because the earnings are coming back and the pentup demand with people are spending and the whole thing saying, that interest rates at zero is to help our economy.

that's one-sided. interest rates are at zero because we have the largest budget deficit since the great depression and you've got to keep rates low we can't afford to keep the rates higher and nothing to do with stimulating our economy. the mortgage securities so people can refinance, 2 1/2, 3%, it's the government doing that and you're borrowing the rate lower than the fortune 500 and that's the government. and you have the free market doing that. as far as you were saying before. the bottom line, the government has fired more people, state, federal, local than in any recession that i remember. the actual number of people let go from the jobs, so if you are for private sector job creation and reducing government, you see a lot of that in the last years and you can't complain. >> that's a he very important point, gary b. government, we're not just talking about the federal government, but the state and local level, we've seen huge layoffs, because they have to meet a budget. >> well, we've seen huge layoffs, but remember, brenda, for the longest time, for in fact, a few years into the recession, the lowest

unemployment rate could be found in the government sector, so, now, even though it sounds draconian, oh, my gosh, all of these government employees are laid off. they're probably coming down to the same pathetic employment levels that the rest of the economy has been seeing. >> brenda: i guess the point is the trend here, isn't it, toby? >> yeah, i mean, look it. we're going to have european issues and other issues and they're going to, you know, be outside influences, but, the good news, i think we've been talking about for a while now, the economy from '02 to '07, a housing miran, shouldn't have built with. what we're building the economy with now is not mirage stuff. >> like facebook shares, don't forget groupon. >> brenda: you're right, toby, we're seeing real progress. >> i like how susan is not against, makes excellent-- >> we'll end it right there. you've been so nice, toby,

that last. and the one that lawmakers could block, undo the market gains we have been talking about. and neil's gang is on it at the bottom of the hour. and talk about super price hikes, americans with sticker shock alt the super bowl barbs this weekend and the government still saying there's no inflation? we add it up, you decide. for their clients' futures. never taking a bailout. helping generations achieve dreams. buy homes. put their kids through college. retire how they want to. ameriprise. the strength of america's largest financial planning company. the heart of 10,000 advisors working with you, one-to-one. together, for your future. ♪ tlgether, for your future. emotional here? aren't you getting a little industrial? okay, there's enough energy right here in america. yeah, over 100 years worth.

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>> good morning everyone, live from america's news headquarters, i'm jamie colby and it's caucus day in nevada. the economy on the mind of registered republicans there and the state unemployment rate. 12.6% in december and that's far above the national average. mitt romney was pulling well ahead of his rivals and won the silver state caucus ins 2008 with 51% of the vote and the battle for second today may be the one to watch.

newt gingrich and ron paul expected to be in a tight race for number two. in the nation's capital before dawn, dozens of u.s. park police were in riot gear, moving on the occupy d.c. camp site and police claiming to banning camping in national parks, they're not evicting, but removing permanent structures like tarps and tents. i'm jamie colby, keep it right here on the fox news channel. >> government officials calling inflation subdue, but there's nothing subdue about the super price spike you're seeing when baying the super bowl snacks. get this, chicken wings up 52%, enough to make you mad. and hamburger patties, up nearly 20, 30%, potato skins up 14% and that's not all that's soaring since last year's kickoff. we don't have an inflation

problem. >> look it, it's the way we measure inflation. and first of all, the government can't afford to have inflation, because, if we really measure inflation properly and show we have it, that would have meant people on social security would have got a cost of living adjustment each year in the last three years and guess what, only got it one year, because we lie when we measure inflation, this is one of the only countries in the world that use as flexible basket of goods and services, are you kidding me? anything in the basket whose price goes up. the government simply takes it out of the basket and magically anything in the basket, all think residential real estate. we give that a bigger weighting in the basket and magically we have subdued inflation and meanwhile, food is up. energy is up, medical expenses is up, but we have no inflation, it's unbelievable. >> susan, that's outrage there. >> they're acting like it's a grand conspiracy from ben bernanke to pretend that the government is massaging the numbers to pretend there's no

inflation, this is the way they've calculated for decades. you x out food and energy. >> no, since 1999, they started lying in '99. before that was truthful and the games started then. >> and x out food and energy otherwise you have monetary policy and has too many dramatic swings. >> you can't look at it x food and energy, that's the only thing that people use every day. >> are you kidding? there are other seculars like technology and other people experience a lot coming down significantly. >> brenda: okay, i get just as mad as you about this, dr. bob, food and energy, my hamburgers are going up. >> oh, my ipad's coming down and that's great. >> blaming everything on the bush administration and saying that the the government worked fine before that claim. that's ridiculous, and assess that, reason on the-- >> you know what, jonas, you're about the only one among us who can afford to eat nachos and you probably aren't this super bowl are you. >> avacado prices have taken a

dive. and part of this is good news, which is, yes, the meats are going up in price because people are cutting back on meats during the the recession, the prices were low relatively and-- >> the drought, too and all that. >> the government actually wants to inflation, the only danger doesn't think it's going to appear for a few years and the economy is ahead of the fed zone estimates and they are sort of in control of-- >> wait a minute, gary b, i know you're going to be as upset as i am about-- >> and i'm-- >> the prices. >> it should be et noted that dr. bob thinks the moon landing was fake, also, so, let's just kind of level where we're at right now. >> it wasn't? >> you can argue like dr. bob there's black helicopters circling d.c. and everything is fake and massaged, but i looked up the actual numbers, first of all, i read somewhere where hamburger prices were 60%, that's ludicrous and i took the numbers off the government data. yes, ground chuck is up.

it's up about 12% year to date. but no one talks about chicken, that's only up 3%. no one talks about restaurant-- >> you can't make a hamburger out of that. >> yes, i agree with you, but it's not up 50% like people are talking about. and so, if you look at just food inflation, i'll look at that. it's up about 4 1/2% year over year. and because people, yes, they look at the ground chuck, but then they forget fruits and vegetables are up 3%. you've been out to eat recently and it's pretty much flat and the restaurants are begging to have your business and that's included in the food number so i'm more in susan and the government's camp. >> the other issue that's-- >> and the other numbers we were showing came from the government, too, go ahead, toby. >> i guess what i'm saying is we actually have in many cases food shortages, if you look, for instance at corn, a big bumper of crops and 40% of that is going to make ethanol. we have beef prices the at ultimate high prices and we

have the lowest herd since 1948 and one of the reasons is we're exporting beef to japan and china and other places and the other one is that they can't afford, he they can't beat them. there's no water and the grain prices are so high. what we called inflation, i think we're missing part of this. we actually have shortages in many of our food stuffs. >> brenda: you didn't answer me, jonas, are you having nachos. >> he's not, he's going organic nachos. >> there's no alien in new mexico to bob's point. no scam going on. >> brenda: and you still didn't answer me. all right. thanks, guys. and the president out with a new housing fix that will cost up to 10 billion bucks. he says, banks will pay for it. is that the pay it's going to work out? . this was the gulf's best tourism season in years. all because so many people wanted to visit us...

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>> president obama wants to slap banks with a bill, and will it end costing you

>> to the president's new housing plans. they would let folks who owe more on their house, to refinance at the today's low rates as long as they're paying on time. the price tag up to 10 billion bucks, gary, you say we're all going to foot the bill for this one. >> this is another cash for clunkers, i guess, brenda, robbing peter to pay paul. look, what happens, the people that can refinance they'll refinance and save money, what happens to the money they saved? the banks have to pass the charge on because they're hit with higher tax ins this case and so, they make less, they spend less and the people that own the bonds, that are tied to these banks, also make less, so, you're benefitting one group and hurting another. and then i guess the other

point is, the people that are going to take advantage of this, if they do, and what, about 500 people took advantage last time. they're not even in the market to buy or sell, they're in the market to stay in their homes, so none of the churn that he we want in the housing market and new buying happens. >> they say this is good for the economy? >> factually it is, we're the not talking about 500 on this one, we're talking tens of thousands and refinance from 6% mortgage to 3.2, 15 year or 3.8 now, that, you know, is 568 bucks and adds up, sometimes tens of hundreds of thousands of people, all right. it's going to be system latiff and the banks are going to pay for it, that's how they do tfrjts bob, what do you think? >> yeah, i don't like it, here is one thing i've learned in my 35 year career. when housing is in trouble the last thing you want to do is it go after the banks, we need to encourage the banks, and don't throw something on top of them. i think that gary b is absolutely a thousand percent correct, they're going to pass it through and going to hurt

not help. >> brenda: you don't mind if the banks pay, you say do it? >> they only have themselves to blame and dragging their feet on this for years. and they, you know, in terms of mortgage modifications, in terms of servicing, in terms of the robo signing and foreclosures, they've made a mess and could have cleaned up themselves and sat there waiting out and thinking it's going to blow over and it hasn't. >> and works for american banker, gary. >> the best friend. >> and jonas why-- >> and the banks created fannie mae and freddie mac. and the banks created them. for god's sake. >> why should the banks bear the costs though. >> they shouldn't, i'm for the government paying for the ideas not borrowing, like they did with cash for clunkers. can't we cut the banks a little slack. and it's not the bank's fault and not necessarily the government's job to end more to the home owners and poor renters they can't lower their rent in all this. not fair to go after the banks, it needs to get done

and tax everybody, you can't say because you're a banker and this guy, he's got to get a lower rate. it's ridiculous, i know it's a situation here when you can't refinance and underwater, but it's not the bank stocks recommended on the show, and the presidents ruined the stock picks this year. >> mr. empathy. >> brenda: there we go. thanks, guys, and thank you to susan for joining us. okay. get your game day gear on for the the bulls and bears stock super bowl. the guys name the winning stock, and the winning team, and check this out. they've never been wrong about picking the champion, not once. ♪ ♪ you and me and the big old tree ♪ ♪ side by side, e, two, three ♪ ♪ counthe birds in the big o tree ♪ ♪ la la la [ male announcer ] the inspiring story of how shipping giant can befriend a forest may seem like the stuff of fairy tales.

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>> guaranteed winners, bulls and bears, predictions. bob, you're up. >> my prediction for this year's super bowl winner is the new york giants and my stock is, omnicom, up 30% and next year's winner, the pittsburgh steelers.

>> okay. tobin, what do you say bulls or bears. >> i like the steelers. >> gary b. your prediction? >> i am going to say that morn stanley gets that facebook bounce, they're the lead underwriter and i think the stock is up 30%, and giants get a bounce, too, i'm with the giants. >> brenda: oh, my god, bull or bear on this. >> two words for gary, dodd frank. >> are you a member of kiss, is that what you're looking at there. >> your prediction. >> as a connecticut resident i'm allowed to go for the giants or the new england patriots and i'm going with the patriots. new england's team and danbury's finest, industrial gas maker. >> gary b, bull or bear. >> he's 500 miles from where the patriots are, i'm bear. >> brenda: tobin your prediction, thought deeply about it, giants, pfizer has been beat up and rising and one big blockbuster come out i think it's up 20%. >> brenda: jonas bull or bear. >> i think it's a safe stock,