>> brenda: jobs stalling. march posting the fewest gains the year and now, more big companies are cutting. stocks falling. coming off their worst week of the year. is it goodbye recovery, hello new recession? hi everyone, i'm brenda buttner, this is bulls and bears, let's get right to it, and the bulls and bears this week, tobin smith. jonas max ferris, along with julian epstein and welcome to everybody. todd, is the recovery headed into a new recession? >> it is, brenda, let me tell you the facts document this alone. if you have a 120,000 jobs rights now and look at the last six months, all the new jobs created, 70% of them actually are of the low income variety. he retail, hospitality, leisure, not the jobs for sustained growth. if you have negative growth, that means we're headed into

recession and the document and data, everything for us. >> brenda: i don't know, toby is going, oh, oh. >> one month doesn't mean anything, you know that better than anybody. and if you look at the overall data, these are anomalies through the numbers and don't get focused on that, we had the markets down because the fed decided to tell the people addicted to the liquidity that maybe they he weren't going to be writing checks for the next 25 years and. >> i disagree, toby. >> and this is the worst trading week of the year. >> and for crying out loud. that doesn't count, but the point that we're going to recession, we had negative growth and it is no way, if you look at the forward indicator, forget about the-- >> it's going to be awful on monday, everybody's going to be selling. >> todd, it's not going to be great. whoever thought 280,000 jobs on the dividend, but the bigger issue containing growth and-- >> did you ever think you might agree with toby?

>> no, i agreed with toby last time i was on and agree with him. >> yes, he did, and he's a handsome man. >> and probably in the extreme minority. toby is right look the at big picture. the first quarter this have year is the best performance in terms of job creation in the last six years, in the last two years we've had-- >> what jobs, 4 million. todd, let us finish. >> 4 million jobs created in the last two years and remember, where we were coming from? when obama came in, in '09, we were losing 800,000 jobs a month. and we were at negative 8% grosse pointe woods. we're now creating somewhere between 100 and 200,000 jobs a month and we're in, around 2% grosse pointe woo gdp and i think that-- >> 2% gdp. most of us look at it three quarters full. >> i know you're excited, todd. we'll get to you in a minute.

gary b, you're concerned about growth, aren't you? >> first of all, i think that todd needs one of toby's dividend doobies to calm down a little bit. and second of all, i'm concerned. and i'll give the half full case first. the fed has been put in a lot of cheap money into the economy, that's the good news. it's still sloshing around out there and i think that that's helpful and the bad news is, it gets right back to what we led with, brenda, the unemployment. and you have an effective. >> look, they can spin it anyway they want. the effective rate is about 15% and that's really not budged in the past few months. and that's what's holding us back. and you have value, you have an anti-business administration, you have the highest corporate tax rates which we talked about last week in the world. and you have a, a campaign about taxing the rich even more. so, you've got entrepreneurs who say i don't know if i want to start up or build my business, corporations saying, we're going to expand overseas, so all of these

things together are kind of combatting what the fed has been doing and that's why i think it's almost worse than a recession, brenda, i think we're going to muddle through endlessly, like mud, like we did back in the 70's, maybe for a few more years of this. >> and during the 70's, i think the dow started the same place that it ended, yeah, and you guys are talking about the liquidity washing around and really, what you're saying is that interest rates are going to stay low. >> exactly. >> brenda: that's what it means to us. now i've got to go to the smart boy chair now. jonas, tell what yous it really means. >> he's the smart man, you're the smart boy. >> and i'd say i've got zero percent interest rates and all i've got is 120,000 job. the consider we're he in a stimulus role with the tax rate and the not creating that many jobs. it doesn't mean we're in a double dip recession, a lot of money not made in the stock market, people are redikting in the recession the last couple of years. it's a sluggish recovery

that's not a recession, you can keep stocks where they are, not going to have run away growth and not going to have it when they eventually pull away the punch bowl with the taxes and low interest rates and it doesn't mean we're sliding back to recession, it's slow growth and going to take a very long time now to get to the unemployment rates a few years ago, before the last recession, but-- >> hold on. >> and when you're talking about the involvement. when you're talking about the fed involvement and everybody there. here is the thing, we would have been in a recession and never would have recovered out of the the last recession from a couple of years ago, if it wasn't for the fed involvement and now we have to wonder, where are they coming in and the-- >> and right now? you don't have the government involvement, fed involvement, where is the growth? >> you tell me. >> and here, the crux of our question is, 120,000 jobs is not going to grow us out of this malaise. and nobody argues that, but to gary's point. they were saying that, blah, blah and blah, all the bad

stuff that the the administration has done for the last three years, dude, that's already priced in. we've gotten the-- >> somebody answer that phone! >> the second thing, we have another leg of maybe six months of this morras of people not feeling good where the government is going, but nothing's changed and-- >> toby, toby, i agree it's priced into the market, but the effect on the economy. i'm not saying-- i'm saying the stock market is a whole different animal. >> the retail spending, i don't think that's priced in, retail spending and actual employment is up after you pick the overall numbers and if you look at the actual spending and how much money in the pocket and how much is spent. those numbers are gradually up and that's-- >> and that's, look, guys, if you really want to-- >> the report. >> hold on, hold on. >> all of these are torn points, you have to look at the long view here. >> brenda: todd, let's hear julian.

>> i know todd-- quiet! >> let julian go, please. >> please. >> i think we're missing a couple of points and i take whoever was, toby's point about corporate taxes, but taxes on most americans are at historic lows right now. one, two is i do think that we have to take the long view. we have to look at where we came from two years ago, negative 8 growth. losing 800,000 jobs a year and i agree with toby that 100,000 isn't enough, but if you look at the performance in the first quarter, it's pretty darn good. so, i think there -- i don't want to be polly ann-ish about it, but i don't want to be the nay sayer that i think todd is. at least the trends are in the right direction. >> let's not freak out over one month. when you take the predictions, you take the data and add it up into a trend and gary, you're a chart man. oh, my god, the sky is falling, 120,000 jobs. if we had 130,000 jobs in the home survey different than the

corporate survey we would have had much bigger numbers. let' be calm. >> and what's the economy collapsing because of recession, in 2000 we had the housing market. where is the big part of the economy that's shrinking fast that's going to cause recession. >> brenda: what about student debt? what about student debt is that-- >> the household-- brenda, you're right the household balance sheet right there is in disarray right now. more people owe more money than what they're making right now. and-- >> how is this more disarray than the last three years, todd? >> the retail numbers were there, toby. last 60 days, retail numbers were up and people were spending, weather is better, but the demand is not there. corporations do not have to go out and hire, as a matter of fact, they're laying off, yahoo! right now, j.c. penney and these are the jobs. >> brenda: okay, now what? you guys, you are the milquetoast gang, next time we're going to have to get you going. all right? all right. the free market kicking back in. so, why is everyone freaking

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>> live from america's news headquarters, hello, i'm julie banderas, new, they say everyone is accounted for after a navy jet crashes in virginia beach. aftermath caught on camera. flames ow of the building and jets slicing, and no deaths. seven people are injured and believe the jet suffered a catastrophic mechanical malfunction during takeoff. the head of the united nations is demanding, a week before

the cease-fire deadline agreed to by syrian president assad. back it bulls and bear, grab your computer on log on to foxnews.com, i'll see new about 15 minutes. >> brenda: health care costs rising as the care we're used to may be disappearing. several doctor groups now recommending killing off 45 routine medical procedures and toby, you say there's one thing missing from the health care law that could have prevented this? what is this? >> of course, tort reform. again, if you talk to physicians and tell you it they do the tests because it's defensive medicine, they're right. look at empirical evidence, we don't need to. look at texas and california put a limit on tort reform and look at the numbers two three after those, the rates went down, because the doctors aren't scared.

the fact it's incontestable and trying to cure the problem of regulation as opposed to solving the underlying disease, it doesn't make sense. >> brenda: tort reform basically put a limit on malpractice. >> correct. >> brenda: action. >> issues. >> and pain and suffering. >> brenda: todd, is this really about money or is it about power? >> well, it could be both, brenda. i think it's more about power. you actually don't need to give the government the ability to restrict what a doctor can do. you want them to have free will when it comes to care, don't want them to have to itemize costs, while prescribing health care and that's something you want it stay away from, as a doctor and that's what we've had before and what makes our medical system so great. and so, going forward, i'm not so sure. right, it is, i'm not sure it's about tort reform, why wouldn't this have been an issue way back when? it's not. >> if you look at texas, 250,000 cap on this and services went down and the care went up. >> okay, toby, be a good boy, too, all right?

all right, now, julian. >> what the doctors are talking about is the fee for system and multiple doctors, fee for service system and the system is like asking a butcher, how much meat you want to eat and where it spends about 16% of the grosse pointe woods on health care, 2 trillion dollars, and much higher than most, of our other european countries, be and the doctors groups are saying that as much as a third of those expenditures can be attributable to wasteful, unnecessary procedures because you're building in a system where the physicians in the medical community can keep padding costs and padding costs for the fee for service system. so the bundle payment system is studied extensively, significant way to cut costs without reducing quality of care, as for tort reform, it's a fair point, but it deals with part of the problem, not the whole problem. i agree with you're talking about punitive damages and not pain and suffering. >> brenda: gary b? >> well, dealing with the whole problem would open up

the whole health care system to the free market. and we're so far away from that, it's laughable. as to toby's point, he's right. it would help costs, but the unfortunately part it's studied and apart from on a national level. it's studied in health affairs and runs about 55 billion in savings. that sounds like a lot, but it's only about 2.4% of total health care costs, so, it's a step forward, it's not a huge step. i think it's a step we need to take though. >> jonas, what do you think? >> well, first of all, in a free market, you sue doctors in hospitals and it does raise costs and leads to the tests going on because they try to protect their own basically and doing unnecessary stuff and don't sue them, they didn't do the test because of one in a million something. and if you have no liability as a doctor or hospital, half

the tests done, to toby's point in america. and lower health care costs, but you wouldn't be getting the tests, this is not something you want, but protecting their own. and just because they could wrack up bill, another point, but in this particular case, if the government had tort reform, you'd have less tests performed and the doctors wouldn't need to come out and say, you don't need the test hes, wasting your time. >> the point is that you're trying to solve too many tests by regulating. you have to solve the underlying proper, the medicine because they're afraid of being sued. >> brenda: that's got to be the last word. thanks, guys. how going green is putting funding for roads and bridges in the red. now, there are new plans to tax drivers by the mile. to make up the difference. how does that make you feel?

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>> coming up how the administration's push for greener cars, have some on empty. and how they tax you by the

>> more fuel efficient cars taking more money away. and the government staying it could be running on empty as early as 2013, which has more states looking into a mileage tax to make up the the money and jonas, do you think this is a good idea? >> a great idea, because, we don't take in enough income it cans to pay for the roads. so, those will be paid for with the gas tax and the problem is asphalt prices go up with everything else and they'll stay the same forever, pretty much and the problem is, we can pay for it through general taxes not fair to the people who are use it go, which are drivers, and they

should pay for it through a mix of a gas tax and a mileage tax, and i was bagged down for months and a great mileage, but i'm using the roads and getting away with it. and with the electric car, you're not paying a gas task, we've got to get along with it-- >> note to jonas, don't mention to drive a-- gary b. go ahead. >> so, i saw jonas on i-95 on his scooter, ridiculous, he was getting passed left and right and really silly. i tell you why, this is, this is ludacris on so many points, point number one, we're subsidizing the green cars to begin with and all of a sudden, because, where we're subsidizing and go and get higher taxes and the third part of the triple whammy, and it goes to the inefficient federal government or the inefficient state governments and all of the roads and bridges and stuff could and should be privatized and that's where you get

innovation like the hot lane which no government could ever come up with, that one come up with private enterprise and the greenway, for crying out loud. and instead of giving this money to the country that creates the big dig and wastes zillions of dollars. >> there would be all the private tolls. >> that's the only point you and i agree on. >> brenda: toby. >> gary, first off i love the libertarian thing. these are roads and streets, we've taken a system from 1935, and applying it to 2012. we're smarter than that. put the smart tags on the vehicle and people who use the roads more pay a little more from the use fee than people who don't use them, number one, and number two, you can't make the argument that we can privatize everything because, to jonas' point i'm on the your vief pass road and used to be a dollar, it's now $8.

>> brenda: and they never ever bring the tolls down once they pay for the road. >> yes. >> brenda: julian, what do you say? >> i came last minute. ten o'clock last night sitening traffic over an hour. the paul wiler, last conservative, said conservatives are just as tired of sitting in traffic, we're about 10 billion dollars short and the idea in an annual basis, the bush administration said that the interstate highway system and road system creates benefits for every single business in every single sector and the idea, i think, of privatizing is not realistic, a private company cannot build an interstate highway system. >> why not. >> i think the idea of a tax right now. makes mow sense given the fragility of the economy and take the shortfall from general revenues because the system is just too important. >> brenda: gary said, why not take the last word there. >> well, how do you think turnpikes started in this countries? you know, before there was an interstate system the major turnpikes and innovations came

from private companies and that's how you got it and it was a nice big feeder and hub system and that's how highways started until the eisenhower administration. >> get in tlfrjhere. >> it was before cars were invented. >> it's impossible and every government out there is going to be threatening, bridges are going to be falling down, use the i-35 bridge as the political motivation here. >> brenda: thanks, guys and thanks to julian for joining us, very handsome julian, and toby. >> thank you. >> brenda: coming up, all the job cuts at yahoo! this week could mean big gains for another internet company and time for you to hire the stock? the name next. [ male announcer ] if you believe the mayan calendar, on december 21st polar shifts will reverse the earth's gravitational pull and hurtle us all into space. which would render retirement planning unnecessary. but say the sun rises on december 22nd,

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>> predictions, gary b, you're up. >> google takes advantage of the yahoo! troubles, i think the stock is up 15%.

>> jonas, bull or bear. >> more the market value of yahoo!. >> brenda: your prediction? >> delta takes an unusual thought of oil refinery. and s & p is a better way. >> brenda: gary b, bull or bear on that. >> bear, it's sliding a bit. let it slide more. >> brenda: toby, your predictions. >> in the masters, rory mcilroy is-- >> bull or bear. >> i like fed ex. >> brenda: what's your prediction. >> i like kraft, the maker of the cadbury cream eggs, delicious. >> brenda: we love them. toby, what do you think. >> it's all about the pez, man. all about the pez right here. here is warren the pez man. >> brenda: i love that. and we wish you all a very, very happy holiday, neil is next.