groups to provide money for armed insurgents that could be used for weapons, loosening of the restrictions occurred with little fanfare we're told last month. cia is helping syrian opposition with nonlethal support for some time, helping them with command-and-control issues but stopping short of providing weapons at a base in turkey near adana the u.s. has a large base nearby in incirlik. as president bashar's potential last stand in aleppo, this amateur video shows opposition fighters targeting a government fighter jet. the governments of qatar and saudi arabia have been providing weapons in support for the fighters. including recent reports that the opposition has shoulder-launched suace-to-air missiles that could help even the fight with the assad regime. defense secretary leon panetta declined to comment recently about any change in the u.s. position toward helping the sirian opposition bring down president assad.

>> the key right now is to continue to bring that pressure on syria, to provide assistance to the opposition, and to provide whatever kind of humanitarian aid we can to assist the refugees. >> reporter: it's notable a day after a suicide bomber took out most of president assad's national security team the first news reports began appearing about the quiet assistance the u.s. and others are providing what appears to be a more organized opposition from bases in turkey. jon? jon: developments changing there by the day it seems. jennifer griffin at the pentagon. thank you. jenna: and now this fox news alert. do we have a mistrial in the drew peterson case? out to mike tobin right now where the judge just ruled in illinois. mike? >> reporter: jenna, we do not have a mistrial. the judge just handed that down despite the prosecution arguing that there should be a mistrial because the prosecutor or defense i should say arguing that there should be a mistrial

because the prosecution in this case keeps trying to slip inadmissible evidence in front of this jury. they wanted that mistrial because in the words of one of the defense attorneys on the peterson team, you can not untaint this jury. >> we should be hearing evidence. we shouldn't be hearing someone maybe, found a bullet in their driveway and, gee, judge, we have no evidence that the defendant did that. it's like saying, well, someone sent him a fish head in a box and drew peterson's a fisherman. okay, that doesn't mean he sent him a fish head in a box. >> reporter: now the controversy came yesterday when a neighbor of the victim in this case, kathleen salve yo, his tame is thomas ponterelli. testified that he felt inestimate dated by drew peterson and said he found found a 38 caliber bullet in his driveway and said he got the message. the judge stopped the testimony and asked the

prosecution, do you intend to show that the defendant, drew peterson placed that bullet in the driveway? the state's attorney said no. he stopped the testimony, sent the jury out of the room. that is when the motion for a mistrial came forward. we have a ruling from the judge. no mistrial. the judge said he will not strike all of the testimony of mr. president.. onterelli. he said that is too severe. the case against drew peterson moves forward. jenna: mike, thank you so much for that breaking news. >> reporter: you got it. jon: fox news is americas's election headquarters. less than 100 days to go now until election day. a new poll finds president obama has his work cut out for him. a "gallup poll" finds mr. obama's approvalling rating below 50% in 37 of the 50 states. that is significant because post-world war ii incumbent presidents above the 50% mark on re-election day were easily reelected. those below that mark had

uncertain prospects. talk about it with jonah goldberg the editor-at-large for "the national review." he is also a fox news contributor. 37 states, mr. obama is under the 50% mark. what does that say to you, jonah? >> well, jon, it's bad news for obama but it is not a prophecy of doom either. historically the general rule of thumb is that come election day if you're below 50% that the undecideds are going to tend to break for the challenger because people know who barack obama is. they have gotten to know him. he is not a unknown quantity anymore and what basically voters are waiting for is to be persuaded to vote against him. so the longer he goes under 50% the more likely it is that those people can't be persuaded to vote for him and that they will go to romney. it also says that obama has probably, though not definitely, probably wasted over $100 million on ads trying to demonize mitt romney that don't seem

to have moved the polls very much. considering his burn rate, the burn rate of his campaign and how much money they're spending that should be pretty worrisome for him as well. jon: well, three of the states where he is underwater include florida, pennsylvania and ohio. he is below, he is in the mid 40s in those states, 44 to 46%. those are critical states in the electoral college. >> yeah. although, you know to be fair there are other and may be some negative ads that obama has blown a lot

of money on aren't moving the national poll numbers but moving some of the numbers in state by state. still at the end of the day what obama is desperate to do is have this be a choice between obama and demonized mitt romney. if it is referendum on obama, obama is in a lot of trouble, particularly given how the economy seems to be stalling out again. jon: you say that voters tend to break, you know, they, they know the president. they know the job he's done, late deciders tend to break for the opponent? >> that's right. late deciders, in most elections late deciders tend to break for the opponent by a wide margin. that is because most voters see these elections as referendum on the incumbent. how is the president doing his job? and that is how mitt romney wants to make this race. that is why he doesn't take a lot of bait about all the distractions. he wants this to be a referendum on the economy. a referendum on obama's job performance, vis-a-vis his promises in 2008 where he was going to make the oceans

turn around and recycle uncorn poop for renewable energy for that kind of thing. if he keeps the focus whether obama has done what he promise he would do and whether obama has been good for economy i think romney wins by default and that basically is their strategy. jon: jonah goldberg, from "the national review." that is a new phrase to me. >> wonder if you caught that. jon: thank you for waking up my thursday. >> there you go. jenna: you never know when uncorns might just pop up somewhere on the show. could happen at any time. "happening now", a high-stakes showdown over cybersecurity. right now the senate is weighing the fate of pending legislation that some say hits privacy, pits personal privacy against national security. as top white house counterterrorism advisor urges lawmakers to pass it. >> the cybersecurity act of 2012 gives us what we need in order to protect this country from the cybersecurity threats we face and we encourage all senators to vote in favor of it.

the nation's security is at risk. jenna: chief intelligence correspondent catherine herridge joins us live from washington with the breaking details on this. so, what are we learning now about the at administration's position on this bill? >> reporter: well, good morning, jenna. we're witnessing a full-court press by the obama administration to get the cyber legislation through the senate with an on the record conference call with reporters where the president's national security team including the head of u.s. cyber command laid out the case for the legislation. >> we see the threat is real and that we need to act now. from our perspective the dangers to our critical infrastructure are growing. we're seeing that, a significant growth from 2009 to 2011. and we believe we need this legislation to help us do our mission. >> reporter: the controversial legislation includes three key provisions. the a new information-sharing framework between government and private sector which is defined as narrow improvements to infrastructure so that power,

electric and water and clear lines of authority between homeland security, the defense department, and the fbi. right now we have got that vote underway in the senate. it is anticipated that it may get hung up on some procedural issues in the senate that have to do with arguments over amendments that are unrelated to the cyber issue, jenna. jenna: interesting that you say that, catherine. senator lieberman took to twitter. to my senate colleagues save the partisan ideological shots for another day. vote for cybersecurity. this is happening right now. those are lawmakers trying to figure out the issue. what about the intelligence community, what have folks inside the community told you about this threat? >> reporter: we were told by general alexander the head of cyber command at nsa there was increase in cyber attacks, 20 fold increase from 2009 to 2011. homeland security said their cyber term received a call about a suspect or real cyber intrusion about every 90 seconds. >> i can tell you that

iran's capability is getting better and the more pressure that is on iran from the international community they're not necessarily a rational actor. a rational actor doesn't plan to plant a bomb and blow up the saudi ambassador in the united states capital or the. >> reporter: so what you see with cyber are a handful of elements. you see the hacktivists that want to disrupt the system. you have what congressman rogers referred to as the state actors and most significantly with with iran they are seeing an increase in their cyber capability and the issue here is that iran is not a rational or predictable actor the way they use that capability. jenna. jenna: in the course of your report, they received calls twice just? the short time we've been talking. >> reporter: every 90 seconds. pretty astonishing. jenna: a quick pace. the catherine, thank you so much. >> reporter: you're welcome. jon: police in swat gear armed with semiautomatic

weapons surrounding miley cyrus's home. why they were there. we'll get into that. plus three planes packed with passengers on a collision course coming within seconds of a midair disaster at reagan national airport. how it all happened next.

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his own people there for better than a year. the u.n. sent in its former secretary-general kofi annan to try to mediate some kind of a peace deal. kofi annan says he is stepping down. he has submitted his resignation to the current u.n. secretary-general, ban ki-moon and reports are he is blaming name-calling and finger pointing as the reason for his departure. some observers say kofi annan wasn't exactly getting the job done. the bloodshed continues. for whatever reason, according to reports it is because of fingerpointing and name-calling, kofi annan says he will step down as the u.n. special envoy to syria. more developments as we get them here on "happening now.". jenna: right now some new information on a few crime stories we're keeping an eye on for you here. today police will meet with a person of interest in a 12-year-old hurt case. 16-year-old molly bish

disappeared from her lifeguarding job back in 2000. her body was found three years later. now investigators are zeroing in on one man, rodney stanger, who is in prison for killing his girlfriend. they think potentially he might be connected. prosecutors say a college professor devastated by his son's suicide drew up plans for a mass murder at his southern california high school. they found his killing e-mails while investigating a ceres of arsons targeting his son's school. colleague says the father blames faculty members for his son's death. apparently has never been the same after his son's suicide. s.w.a.t. teams armed with semiautomatic weapons rushed to singer miley cyrus's home. they received a report of kidnapping and shots fired. turns out the whole thing was a hoax. cyrus wasn't even home at the time. investigators are searching for the caller trying to figure out where this all came from. jon: three planes on a collision course at reagan

national airport coming within seconds of disaster. federal officials say it happened on tuesday after controllers launched out outbound flights directly at another plane that was landing. we're told the change was made because of an approaching storm that caused a wind shift. all three planes operated by us airways. they reached their destinations with no problems but the near disaster is among several thousand recorded errors by air traffic controllers nationwide in recent years. talk about it with motorcycle boyd, an aviation security analyst. so, they were use apparently runway 1 and decided to change the direction of the runway because of an approaching storm, is that the way you understand it, mike? >> that is what we understand happened. we're not sure how it all came down but we know this. two planes were vectored right into another one. jon: right. the faa put up, gave us a statement. here's what they said regarding what happened. they said that preliminary

information indicates that the closest proximity was 1.45 nautical miles lateral and 500 feet vertical. and then with the second plane in the first plane, departing runway 1 and 2.42 nautical miles lateral and 600 feet vertical for the second plane. 2.42 nautical miles, that sound like a significant distance but a jet aircraft speed you're talking about maybe 15 seconds of closing time between two planes headed at each other. >> oeshs absolutely that is gobbledygook from the faa covering up the fact that their air traffic control system a mess. it is mismanaged at top. there is no fix in process. they have been doing this 20 year and giving excuses. it is only hard work by controllers keeping us safe. as a result of that controllers get the brunt of a lot of controller errors are due to equipment, not necessarily the controllers themselves. jon: there have been some recent, you know, fairly notable problems at that

particular airport, at reagan national. you had an airline, airline, air traffic controller falling asleep in the cockpit. that kind of thing. you had the other foul-up involving michelle obama's plane. is this just a particular problem airport or is it a problem with the entire system? >> the entire system. there is no question about it. in 1994 we testified to congress on this matter and what the faa told congress then is exactly what they're telling them now. the fix is in the works. we're going to make it happen. we have people at the top of the faa who should not be there. they're not held to account. congress doesn't hold them to account. neither does the airline industry. it is a matter of time before we have more incidents like this. we better move quickly to put people in charge at faa who know something rather than who know somebody. jon: i would not have wanted to be on one of those planes

that nearly had a midair head-on. mike boyd, aviation consultant. thank you. jenna: fiery explosion at an oil refinery sends flames shooting into the night sky. an update on effort to contain this massive fire. we're live at the breaking news desk just ahead. are you receiving a payout from a legal settlement or annuity over 10 or even 20 years? call imperial structured settlements. the experts at imperial can convert your long-term payout into a lump sum of cash today. [ male announcer ] introducing new dentyne split to fit pack. it splits in to two smaller, sleeker packs that fit almost anywhere so you can take them everywhere. dentyne split to fit. practice safe breath.

jon: an incredible scene out of oklahoma. an oil refinery explosion lights up the skies. rick folbaum is at the breaking news desk. >> reporter: the good news is this fire is being contained but that explosion that came before the flames was a rude wake-up call for a lot of folks in tulsa, oklahoma. take a look at video. we have it on the ipad. 3:00 a.m. is when the explosion took place at the holly frontier oil refinery in tulsa.

the company's own emergency response crews were able to get the fire under control. local tulsa firefighters were there on standby just in case. the flames apparently could be seen from miles away. it started in something called a diesel hydro treater unit that is a part of the refinery process where sulfur is removed in case you were wondering. i know i was. holly frontier is based in dallas. they have five refineries around the country including this one in oklahoma which pumps out 1255,000 barrels of crude a day. this will probably slow them down a little bit. important to note that the company says the community there not in any danger. we'll see what effect if any it has on the oil market today, moving forward, jonners i imagine a lot of long-haul truckers will not be happy if their prices go up as a result of that fire. >> you can bet on that. jon: thanks. jenna: new explosive comments from iran's president today. mahmoud ahmadinejad says the ultimate goal of world forces must be the annihilation of israel.

this comes after israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu says time to peacefully resolve the nuclear showdown is running out, telling defense secretary leon panetta, that sanctions and diplomacy haven't moved tehran's nuclear program backwards, even quote, a millimeter. this comes as congress disapproved new sanctions on iran yesterday. joining us ambassador john bolton, former ambassador to the united nations and a fox news contributor. ambassador, is this bluster or should we prepare for a strike? >> i think iran's part this is a repetition of what president ahmadinejad and other key iranian leaders have said for years. that they desire the elimination of the state of israel. so when you see a country with that as its stated objectives coming close to getting the capacity to achieve those objectives through the use of nuclear weapons it's no wonder people in israel are concerned. and that's why i think when prime minister netanyahu says repeatedly as he has

now done several times just in the past few days that neither diplomacy nor economic sanctions are having any impact on the iranian nuclear program, this is a signal that israel is not going to wait very much longer if the united states doesn't act militarily, that israel and its own self-defense will feel forced to do so. jenna: what kind of timeline do you give that? >> well, i don't think there is any hard and fast timeline, even in israel's mind but i think that the evidence about where iran is in its nuclear program tells us that there is not much longer to wait. and there is speculation out there now, as well, that russia may be reconsidering its earlier decision not to sell israel very sophisticated air defense equipment which would be capable, basically of stopping israeli air, an israeli air attack. so i think this is up in the air. i think the potential collapse of the assad regime in syria, which is a real

blow to the iranian regime and to russia, really highlights even more the threat of the iranian nuclear weapons program. jenna: i want to get to syria in just one moment and talk to you a little bit about what is happening at the u.n. but just quickly here, ambassador, we heard different leaders say time is running out when it comes to iran. we heard about new sanctions time and time again for last several months. what is different over the last several weeks the united states sent four high-ranking officials to israel. my question to you, do you think that is to send a message to iran our enemy or a message to our ally israel? >> this is two things. one to bracket mitt romney's trip to israel. that is the political agenda. second, to do whatever it takes to convince prime minister netanyahu not to strike iran's nuclear program before our election. i don't think the iranian regime is impressed one little bit by frequent flyer miles from washington to jerusalem, the capital of israel. jenna: the capital of is ral

according to the ambassador. that is hot topic over the political space. quick question for you as well. you worked with the united nations. you worked as well with kofi annan. we had the breaking news he is resigning. he will not play the role he has been playing over the last several months as a representative for the u.n., trying to talk to assad, trying to talk to iran and try to figure out how to end this crisis in syria. what are your thoughts about his resignation? >> well, i don't think it will change anything. it was never going to work. i think the whole annan mission, the effort at negotiation or mediation was a russian ploy to buy time for the assad reg dweem to crush -- regime to crush the opposition. that the united states very naively went along with. assad has failed, an nan has failed and the whole thing will continue to deteriorate. jenna: ambassador i see the u.n. chief is now talking to the arab league to replace annan. is there anybody out there that you could think play that role and be successful or is this just something that is foot tile mission? >> honestly there is no role

to play and it would not be a career enhancing move for anybody to taeshg that job. jenna: ambassador bolton, thanks for your time today. >> thank you. jon: dramatic video caught on tape. take a look at this. a guy is out walking when the road suddenly gives way. it swallow him. wow! we'll take a look. we'll tell you what happened to him and what caused the sinkhole coming up. a showdown in washington now over taxes. will the bush-era tax cuts be extended for all americans? we might not know the answer until after the election but how is this issue affecting the race for the white house right now? a fair and balanced debate coming up.

jenna: this just in. it's a case of wrong place, wrong time, with deadly consequences. surveillance cameras rolling as a man suddenly drops into a sinkhole after the road collapses. this happened in taiwan.

and sadly the man did not survive this. rescue workers recovered his body hours later from beneath the debris. we're told floodwaters from a nearby river weakened the road's foundation and this is what happened. there has been a typhoon in the area, a slow moving storm blamed for the deaths of 23 people. also in another country in the philippines. so a lot of bad weather and again some bad consequences. jon: right now it is one of the biggest undecided issues that will affect your bottom line. all signs suggest it won't get settled until after the election. still, the fate of the bush-era tax cuts are front and center in this campaign. yesterday the republican-controlled house voted to extend the tax cuts for all americans. but that bill is not expected to go anywhere in the democrat-dominated senate. so where do you lawmakers and president obama go from here as the country come closer to going over that

fiscal cliff on january 1? let's get into a fair and balanced debate. angela mcglowan, fox news political analyst and santita jackson, fox news contributor. do you think the house did the wrong thing in voting to extend tax cuts for everybody? >> what is interesting to me about all this? it is aspirational argument, not factual one. only 3% of the americans make $250,000 a year or more. there is no discussion about 100 million poor or near poor or actual tax hike on middle class americans, particularly on military families if this resolution has now given us. jon: how is that going to be a tax hike, santita? >> no, 24 to 25 million. look at numbers. 24 to 25 million americans will have a tax hike. the only people who really get a break are those 3 at the top. we have to have a discussion that is broader than what we're having right now. it is just not broad enough. jon: angela, the vote in the house that i'm talking about extended the bush-era tax

cuts for everybody. how does that turn into a tax hike? >> it doesn't turn into a tax hike. we need a pathway to job creation and obama's tax hikes, ernst & young came out with a latest report, his tax hike would cost 700,000 jobs or more. so what we need is to extend the bush tax cuts for an extend those tax cuts for everyone. but, the house having that vote yesterday, jon, it is all been symbolic. nothing will get done until after election day and the american people are suffering but obama's solutions are not the solutions that america needs. jon: you've got the -- >> i don't have confidence what romney will do quite frankly. with this particular resolution passed army privates will pay more than $270 in tax hikes. marine corps rals going to pay more than 1100 in tax hikes. >> the resolution that was passed, with the resolution that was passed they have $1,000 per tax credit. they want to keep the

capital gains tax cut just the same. they want to actually impact the estate tax. the resolution that was passed yesterday would add to the economy. would stimulate the economy. what obama and the democrats proposed is going to have a add more to the fiscal cliff that earn about key and other economists are talking about. jon: what they're -- >> what you're talking about, i'm not talking about want. i'm talking about what happened. what happened yesterday was military families will have to pay more in taxes. those are the numbers angela. that is the reality. look, i don't have a problem with the 3% getting some tax breaks but if those who are going to generate business and generate mon foy for their businesses they need to generate more money for americans. i don't see that happening. >> small businesses of america that are creating jobs and right now you have had two months of a slowdown in manufacturing because of the political uncertainty. if you raise the taxes, people are going to fire people. people are going to make cuts. and that will hurt all families, just not military

families. >> let's talk all of this through. think like henry ford did 100 years ago. he raised his, he raised what he paid his workers so that they could afford to buy the cars that they produced. i don't have a problem. i think we need to rethink this whole argument, angela. you know what, having wealthy pay fewer taxes okay, but they need to do more for the american people if they're going to get that kind of break. jon: santita, you said at the outset this house bill yesterday was aspirational meaning nothing was going to happen. >> yeah. jon: the question is how are the american people supposed to take all of this and translate it when they go into the voting booth? >> i don't really think they care about that. i think what you need to have a discussion about is, or are the 100 million americans who are poor or near poor. nearly half of americans, on some kind of government assistance. there are some real pain out here. >> and it is obama -- >> not even about president obama. you know president obama or governor romney, when they become president begin they will have democrats and

republicans in the house and senate we're going so have the same old mess. >> instead of expanding welfare, what we should do give tax cuts, give tax breaks to companies that -- >> where did welfare come from, angela? >> obama wants to expand welfare. santita, secretary of agriculture saying food stampses is good for the economy. >> more people need it. are you going to deny people, you don't want them to eat? >> give tax cuts to businesses that train these welfare recipients instead of putting more people on the government dole. the only way to create jobs is to give uncle sam off the backs of the job creators. >> well you know what? do that but i want uncle sam off my back but to have my back. you need to make these people getting these breaks pay people not a liveable wage but prosperity wage which the house and senate refuse to raise. let's be fair, angela. >> you said you want uncle sam to have your back? that is the job of the government -- >> off my back. >> to protect the consumer. what republicans want to do

get them off your back so you control more of your money than uncle sam because obama's stimulus package, sanity teet at that, -- san teeth tax bottom line, didn't work. which have not more jobs but less jobs. >> i want jobs to pay us money. jon: fun to get you two together and here your points of view. thank you both. >> i love angela and i love you too. jon: i love you too, santita. jenna: at the end of every time, nice to have both of them. always ends wigs a laugh. jon: always a good great discussion. jenna: we have not seen this in 12 years. july gas prices, their biggest monthly jump in a long time. so what is behind the spike? why all of a sudden in july did things get worse and will wit continue? this store clerk standing up to stretch, maybe he is tired, maybe he is bored. he is about to get flipped upside down literally. the amazing video of what

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that's right for you. jon: you think your job is tough? wait until you see this dramatic it video we have to show you. a store clerk in texas passing the time behind the counter at a hiho cafe. little did know at that moment the car is racing toward the parking lot and straight toward him. the car slams into the store and tosses the clerk straight up into the air and throws him 15 feet. the poor guy manages to get up and get outside before collapsing. amazingly told we are told he is back at work after being treated at hospital and then released. meantime the driver of that car, police charged her with intoxication assault. basically they think she was driving drunk. she is out on $100,000 bond. jenna: wow!. jon: lucky guy. jenna: that's for sure. a "fox business alert" now

impacting every driver and really every person in this country. americans feeling the biggest gas price increase for july in 12 years and the climb continuing into this month. according to aaa, national average for a gallon of regular right now is $3.53. a little perspective that is up 20 cents from a month ago. phil flynn senior market analyst at the price futures group, fox business network contributor, always in the thick of things. phil, why is this happening? >> i think the gasoline gods are mad at us, that is the only excuse we have. it has been incredible, jenna. if you look back at all the things that happened that driven up prices. some of it happened before but some is very unusual. take for example this great drought we're having across the nation. people don't realize it, but that added five cents a gallon toward gasoline. why is that? because of the ethanol mandate. when we put ethanol in the gas tank and the price of corn goes up, guess what? the price of our gasoline goes up. so right there we've got a

nickel. add to that on top of this we've had pipeline outages, refinery outages, you name it. everything that could go wrong pretty much has gone wrong. and that is why we've seen this incredible jump. jenna: phil, one of our great camera guys, keith is going on vacation next week. he says of course this is happening. i'm going on vacation. >> right. jenna: is it keith's fault? no, that is not the question. >> i think it is actually. there we go. jenna: we can't blame him, can't blame keith is he a good guy. >> fine. no more vacation. jenna: next couple weeks what does it look like, phil? going on into the back to school time as well? are we just going to see you here prices? >> i'm hopeful we'll see a major drop in prices pretty soon. refineries have been really ramping up production of gasoline at a very high rate. but the reason why i have to caution that somewhat is because of what is going on in the gulf of mexico right now. there is two storms down there right now that are causing us a little bit of concern. we are right in the heart of

hurricane season. we have tropical depression number five which is, looks like it will go south of cuba but we have a another storm system that could develop right in the gulf of mexico. obviously whenever that happens, slows down gasoline imports. that could drive prices higher. mother nature, if mother nature comes down out of the gulf of mexico, prices should top out soon. but if not you better buckle up, it will be an expensive ride. jenna: we forgot about that we haven't had any storms yet. it is not keith's fault and we'll continue to watch the prices. >> not keith's fault, fine. thank you. jon: there is some new information you want to hear about colorado mass murder suspect james holmes. the warning from the psychiatrist who treaeated him weeks before the movie massacre. also how staying on the job late into your pregnancy could be as bad for your baby's health as smoking? is that true? the results of a new study. we'll have a dr. from our medical a-team to join us

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jon: there is a bombshell report right now in the movie massacre investigation. word that the accused gunman raised some alarm bells in the weeks before the massacre. rick is live at breaking news desk with that. rick? >> reporter: this is according to a report from a local television station in denver, kmgh the station is reporting that the psychiatrist treating james holmes warned her colleagues that he might be a threat to others just weeks before the massacre that left 12 dead and 58 injured last month. dr. lynn fenton, the same doctor, holmes reportedly sent a notebook with illustrated drawings about with he was going to do. it was never deliver thed to

dr. fenton. dr. fenton mentioned her concerns to colleagues on the university of colorado threat assessment team but nothing was ever pursued because holmes ended up dropping out of the school not long after that. holmes was in a neuroscience ph.d program he suddenly quit after failing a major exam. a tv station in denver reported that the university never followed up after that thinking there was nothing they could do if holmes was no longer a student at the university. obviously they could have called the local police department in aurora, which is what a lot of experts say they should have done. holmes is charged with dozens of counts of first-degree murder and attempted murder. he could potentially face the death penalty if convicted. back to you. jon: such an awful story all the way around. rick, thanks. jenna: well is working in your last month of pregnancy as dangerous to your baby as smoking? that's according to a new study. it compared mother who is worked until they went into labor to moms who stopped working between six and eight months of pregnancy.

the babies born to the mothers who worked further into their pregnancy weighed less by an average of half a pound and that slightly more of a drop in weight than if a mother smokes. dr. manny alvarez, member of the fox news medical a-team, senior managing he had are to of fox news health.com. so why would that be? >> look, this is a study that was published in an economic journal. they're looking at the economy of the whole issue of working moms. you know, from a scientific point of view they left a lot of things out. they didn't take into account any kind of chronic medical diseases like high blood pressure, cardiac disease, diabetes and things like that. so we don't know what the population really had underneath. it brings the question because i deliver babieses, i can tell you, i always get asked this question. working is not bad as long as it doesn't have stress. you know, for a lot of women, and i feel very bad for them, this economic down turn, especially the last three or four years has been

terrible. so a lot women have to work until the very last minute because they can't make ends meet. so that puts a lot of stress in them. and that stress, you know, lack of sleep, anxiety, if i look at rates of anxiety i see --. jenna: how does that compare let's say, i will bring up my sister-in-law, that is always dangerous thing to bring up your in-laws on television, but this is for good reason. she has three little kids running around. she is a stay-at-home mom, compared to what i do every day, her anxiety level than compared to what i have i think it would be more than a woman going into the office. >> that's true. stay-at-home moms with three kids running around, that is a lot of work for sure. but the other side of the coin at least with that she can make her own schedule. she is her own boss. the pressures of working in corporate america are huge. jenna: you see a big difference between women that work in the office or maybe women that can work from home or choose to stay at home?

>> i could tell you if i were to survey my patients and over 90% would tell me, please, take me out of work, right? the other 10% --. jenna: do you grant them that? >> if there is medical indication. but on the other 10% say, you know what? i enjoy my work. and that's great. when they enjoy their work, things are fine. and also, when you have a very, you know, user-friendly environment. for a lot women working is a hostile environment. their bosses don't understand, especially if they have a male boss. you know, they don't, they don't take breaks when they get tired. jenna: the stress is something is the big thing? >> the stress plays a significant role. jenna: let me ask you quick, the comparison was made to smoking. i want to be clear. because there is similarity to baby weights this is not permission for women to smoke when they're pregnant? >> not only that i think this is unfair comparison to have said that. they were trying to prove the point when you smoke you have small birth weight and now if you work, you saw

small birth weights but i don't think the comparison is fair. jenna: good to know. fox news health.com. >> dot-com. jenna: dr. manny, thank you very much. jon? jon: jenna there is a secret order out apparently to help the syrian rebels. what president obama has told the cia to do and how it could impact the efforts to loafer throw the assad regime. we'll have a live update on that story. a key ruling in the trial of a former police officer who keeps losing his wives and what the judge's decision means for the case against drew peterson. we'll go in depth.

jon: a fox news alert, and confusion in the control tower causes a near disaster. three jets coming within seconds of a midair collision near our nation's capital. steve centanni is live at reagan national airport in arlington, virginia, where this all happened earlier this week.

steve? >> reporter: yeah, jon. it was a question of miscommunication, and it could have been very dangerous, but, of course, there was no problem here, and nobody was injured. all the planes got to their destinations safely. what was happening was there was a direction of traffic from south to north on the runway you see behind me over here, and because there were thunderstorms in the air, the faa, the local controllers were trying to reverse the direction to go from north to south for all landings and takeoffs. well, one of the planes, at least, didn't get the word, and that's the one that was coming in for a landing from the north when he shouldn't have been. at the last minute, controllers diverted him to the west, away from the airport. we have a graphic that shows what happened. we had the one plane landing from the north who really shouldn't have been there and two planes on the opposite end of the runway, the same runway trying to take off heading from south to north. now, the first one that had taken off was heading more or less the same direction as the one coming south and landing,

but they had turned away from each other, so the faa now says there was 800 feet of vertical separation, too close for comfort but not as close as earlier reported x. they were heading in opposite directions. now, the faa put out a statement, and they said that during the switching of operations miscommunication led to the loss of required separation between two regional jets. the faa's investigating the incident and will take appropriate action to address the miscommunication. now, us airways was not very verbal in their response, they put out a very short statement. we're currently investigating and working with the faa to determine what occurred. the safety of our customers and employees is always our top priority. in this, of course, the same airport where they have had trouble with air traffic controllers before. you'll remember just last year one of them was asleep on the overnight shift when a plane was trying to come in for landing and get directions and couldn't contact that air traffic controller. but in this case there were no

injuries, and all the planes arrived at their destinations safely. jon: well, that's the good news, the happy ending to a scary story. steve centanni, thank you. >> reporter: you bet. >> reporter: rick folbaum in the control room, a lot of folks working very hard on brand new stories we have coming up over the next 60 minutes including the governor and the president back on the campaign trail, talking to voters in two key states today. the economy, of course, job one ahead of tomorrow big jobs report. we'll have a preview coming up. also, a major fire in southern california. three firefighters injured, one home destroyed, and you're not going to believe the cause of this fire. we'll have it for you straight ahead. and these five guys, they plan to hold up a jewelry store, but they picked the wrong one. the store owner packing heat and not afraid to pull the trigger. we've got that for you as well. the second hour of "happening now" starts right now. jenna: we start off with this fox news alert on syria and the crisis there.

kofi annan, the man in charge with finding some sort of diplomatic way out of this mess, says he is going to resign and resign shortly. we're glad you're with us, everybody, i'm jenna lee. jon: i'm jon scott. welcome to a brand new hour of "happening now." jenna: president obama signed a secret order directing the cia and other agencies to help rebels flying to overthrow president bashar assad, it's something new to the story that we haven't heard a lot about. jon: it does not, the order, include a plo vision to allow the u.s. to give weapons to the fighters, and the battle for the syrian city of aleppo is intensifying. military jets are firing rockets into civilian neighborhoods, and opposition fighters captured a tank from government p troops. they're using it to attack a military base in syria's largest city and financial hub. world affairs contributor dominicdi-natale is in our middle east bureau and following these developments for us. dominic? >> reporter: hey there, jon. every single one of these developments significant in the

fate of the regime of bashar al assad. let's start off with president obama's signing off on the cia's involvement in events in the region. it should come as no surprise because this secret base as it was revealed last week, but coming so close to the united states air force base on the border with turkey and syria, about 60 miles away from syria, it perhaps is no surprise american involvement has actually come to the fore with regard to this. we know cia has some involvement, although it's not commenting precisely. no doubt they will be concerned about al-qaeda's activities in the violence unravels day by day. but the violence today also exacerbated really by the fact that rebels have got their hands on some very heavy weapons, heavy artillery and also a tank which they are using to actually try and take over a regime military air base which they want to use as a headquarters and try and capture the whole

north of the country on top of that. also today kofi annan as you mentioned, yes, quitting at the end of the month his role as a special envoy to syria for the united nations. he says finger pointing and name calling in the u.n. security council are the reason for him leaving, basically him pointing to the row between europe and the united states. and, of course, the russia and the chinese who have vetoed almost every attempt to remove bashar al assad from his post running the country. on top of that ban ki-moon, who is the u.n. secretary-general, said coi my annan had the most thankless assignment in diplomacy, and it doesn't bode well for diplomatic efforts bringing around a smooth transition in the regime and the political environment there in syria at the moment. whoever gets the job next certainly has few chances to bring out a diplomatic solution as kofi annan has.

jon: a thankless job and nobody's going to succeed, he said. dominic di-natale, thank you. jenna: for more on these developments now that we know the united states is involved in one way or another, we're joined by general jack keane, former vice chief of taffe of the army. a secret order that is now, again, no longer secret. what does this all mean? >> well, certainly clan december stint service in the central intelligence agency which did provide help to the libyan rebels in benghazi, someone has leaked the information that we may, in fact, be providing some kind of assistance to the sir or yang rebels. and certainly we have been advocating such a thing as a matter of policy. the is syrian rebels have been very public in their announcements that they need, essential, three major things. secure communications equipment,

antitank weapons and, third, is anti-aircraft weapons to, in fact, defeat the helicopters and fighters that assad is using. and those things, hopefully, are being provided in some fashion to them either by ourselves or the coalition that is also supporting the syrian rebels. jenna: general keane, with respect to classified information, what potentially could be out there for the public, is this worth it now that we know something about what we're doing in syria and where we could be in turkey to do this, is it worth potentially the lives we're putting at risk of our own people to say or send a message somehow whether it's overtly or covertly that we're getting involved in syria? >> well, who knows what the motivation of someone who's leaking information about our clandestine service and what they're doing. we've said many times before these intelligence leaks are horrific in terms of what they can do to compromise our

operations and also, obviously, to put people's lives at risk. but listen, make no mistake about it, the syrian rebels have opened up a major offensive here to really take the fight to the strength of the syrian army. and that's in two major cities, in aleppo and damascus. in the past they've been fighting near their own strongholds, and they're up against significant opposition because assad is pulling out all the stops. he's using tanks, around the till ri, attack helicopters and fighters to stop this advance by the rebels. so the rebels do need assistance. they've been very open about it and, hopefully, they're getting some of it. jenna: and it's important to note here that apparently this order does not permit the united states to give a lot of these lethal weapons, some of which you mentioned, to the rebels. i asked senator graham about this last week about syria and whether or not we're involved covertly, overtly or how so. here's what he has to say, and i'd like to get your reaction to this. >> i don't think we're doing enough. we don't need to be covert. the last thing in the world

america needs to do is hide from leadership. that's what drives me nuts. you know, we're the voice of freedom left in the world. we're the champion of people's right to live free and in dignity. and i don't want to be covert about it, i want to be overt. jenna: with all your military experience, general keane, what do you think about that? >> well, i essentially agree, you know, with the senator. you know, we advocated before on fox that we should establish a joint task force run by the united states out of central command in turkey and be open about it and provide not only intelligence to the rebels, but use that headquarters as the facility to provide resources to them. and certainly the kind of resources they need, maybe we're not the only one providing those resources. others could cooperate in that joint task force headquarters, that is saudi arabia, the jordanians and, obviously, the turks as well, all who have a vested interest in the outcome of removing assad. so i essentially agree with the senator's comments.

i think he's right on target. jenna: general keane, thank you so much as always for your expertise. >> all right, thank you, jenna. jon: three battleground states to tell you about. they're all getting visits today from the presidential candidates. political prognosticator larry sabato joins us with new information from his crystal ball. jenna: also high drama at drew peterson's murder trial. how could that be? this guy doesn't know anything about drama. apparently, he does. we know that for sure. he's one of the men suspected in the killing of his third wife. what's going on with that case? why did the judge have to consider a mistrial? we're going to dig a little deeper. and rick is at the web wall. rick, what do you have for us? >> reporter: we told you the last hour about reports out of colorado that a psychiatrist treating the movie theater massacre suspect, james holmes, was concerned about his behavior, talked to colleagues about his behavior, but they never did anything about it when holmes dropped out of the school. so our question for you, our poll today, we want to know what

you think. does the school bear any responsibility for never calling the police? take a couple of minutes right now. it's on the "happening now" home page, and we'll have more of the show right after this. don't go away. [ female announcer ] research suggests cell health plays a key role throughout our lives. one a day women's 50+ is a complete multivitamin designed for women's health concerns as we age. it has more of 7 antioxidants to support cell health. one a day 50+.

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jenna: well, right now testimony resuming on day three of drew peterson's murder trial following some heated arguments before the jury was allowed back in the courtroom. the defense asking for a mistrial for the second time claiming misconduct by the prosecution. the judge today denying that motion but certainly gave the prosecution a tough time. peterson is on trial for the murder of his third wife, kathleen savio, back in 2004. the judge today blasting prosecutors over inadmissible testimony about a neighbor supposedly finding a bullet in his driveway, but the judge ruled that peterson could still

get a fair trial and ordered the jury to disregard that testimony. former president faith jenkins and defense attorney duane cates joins us now. catch us up here, what really was the problem with what the prosecution did? >> well, the testimony they tried to introduce that this witness was intimidated because drew peterson supposedly left a bullet in his driveway to try to intimidate him really constituted a prior bad act. anytime you try to introduce a prior bad act of a defendant, you have to give notice. the defense wants to litigate that the possibility of that evidence even being put forth in front of the jury. they didn't have an opportunity because the prosecution introduced the evidence while the witness was on the stand without giving any notice to the judge or the defense attorneys, and they're saying that's not fair. you can't unring this bell. the jurors have already heard this testimony from this witness, and now they're going to think the defendant is going around trying to scare people, and it's going to hurt his chances of getting a fair trial.

jenna: duane, do you think in some ways or let me just say in both ways, what effect does this have on the jury? does it actually make the prosecution look bad because, obviously, they saw something go on between the defense and the prosecution and the judge, or is this not really that big of a deal for a jury to watch, just norm? >> well, juries sometimes get confused and bored because there's so many sidebars, there's so many objections, there's a lot of thing going on that they don't understand because they're not really told what's being said at the bench. but again, you know, you can't unring a bell. once the jury hears information, no matter what instruction the judge gives them, no matter what the judge does, he can't make the jury unhear what they heard. jenna: so you think this could be damaging to the defense still? >> well, i think it is somewhat damaging to the defense, and again, you know, this isn't the first time that the prosecution made an error like this. i made, they made an error in opening statement, you know,

about inadmissible evidence. and this is just, you know, you just can't have these things especially in a high profile trial. you'd think they'd be better prepared and understand what they can and can't use as evidence. jenna: faith, what do you think about that? why is this prosecution get anything so much trouble? is this part of a strategy? are they testing the limits, or are they just messing up? >> well, here's the thing, this is a case where there's not a lot of physical evidence. there are no eyewitnesses, there's no confess. so the prosecutors are really basing their case on hearsay testimony and also the medical examiner's report. so they don't have a lot. it is their burden. they have to prove the this case beyond a reasonable doubt. that is a high burden. so they're trying to use everything they possibly can to prove their case, and they are pushing this to the edge, and that's why you're seeing these motions for mistrials. i think there's been two at this point. that's why you're seeing this happen, because they are really trying to do everything they can because they believe drew peterson is guilty of murder, and they are trying to prove

their case. jenna: we'll see what strategy the defense comes up with when it's their turn. we're a little ways away from that. duane and faith, nice to have you both. thanks so much. >> thanks for having me on. jenna: presidential candidates hitting the trail in three key states. just what do they need to do to win over voters? professor larry sabato's here next with his crystal ball and predictions for november. plus, the video of the day. a 65-year-old store owner faces down five -- count 'em, five -- armed gunmen seen robbing her store on the surveillance footage. we're going to show you how she sent them running for the door. a party?

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ta-and-a-half well, right now incredible video of an attempted jewelry store heist that

happened in garden grove, california, in orange county. the robbers getting a little bit more than they bargained for. rick? >> reporter: you can say that again, jenna, and this is exactly why guns rights advocates say it's a good idea to have a weapon, to know how to use it. a 65-year-old jewelry store owner was able to scare off five would-be robbers. you can see the white suv pulling up, and he's where these -- here's where these guys pull in. they're armed, they're wearing masks. one of the customers inside as well getting caught up in all of this. they're demanding cash, and then, well, the tape's going very quickly, but what happened was the store owner in the back of the store watching all of this unfold, she pulls out her weapon, and she fires at the would-be thieves. you saw them sort of climbing over each other to avoid getting shot, one actually was able to get a shot off in return, and then they sped away. all of it caught on that

surveillance camera there. here's the local police lieutenant. >> her life and the lives of the people in that store were in jeopardy, and she took an action that maybe is not the best course of action, but she did take an action that she felt was appropriate to protect those people inside of that store. >> reporter: and she certainly did a good job. now the search is on for these guys. if you have information, you are asked to call the garden grove police department's tip line, and there is the number on your screen. maybe you can help the cops catch these guys. back over to you, jenna. jenna: she gets to keep the gun. >> reporter: it's her weapon. jenna: you go, girl. she defended her place, there you go. rick, thank you. ♪ jon: tracking the presidential campaign now inside america's election headquarters. both major candidates on the road today talking about the economy. president obama is making stops in florida and virginia.

governor romney with several events in colorado. let's take a look at the map. these dozen or so states are the real swing states that we're talking about, and that's why they are seeing so many visits from these candidates. president obama going to virginia today. if you take a look at the stats on that state, the population about 5.2 million. that gives it 13 of the nation's electoral votes. the major industries in virginia, government is one of them, of course, with bordering on washington, d.c., you can understand that. health care as well. and the governor there, bob mcdonnell -- a man who is making a name for himself as a possible vice presidential pick. go down here to florida then. president obama is going to hit florida as well. that is a crucial state in this election. if we can get the florida information up here, florida, a state with 29 electoral votes. that's more than a tenth of all of those out there. take a look at the population,

about 19 million. the electoral votes i told you about. major industry you probably already know, tourism is one of them, agriculture is one as well. and rick scott, a republican governor who was elected last time around with a whole lot of tea party support. then take a look at colorado. i know it pretty well, it's my home state. um, the population there 5.1 million -- sorry, i was getting a little interference in my earpiece there. 5.1 million is the population there. nine electoral votes in colorado. the major industry you might think tourism, actually aerospace, energy and mining. the state governor there, john hickenlooper, the former mayor of denver who had a business career before that, he is a democrat. well, that is a state that mitt romney is visiting today. mike emanuel is live in basalt, colorado.

it's a town i know a little bit about, it's a great spot for fishing and, well, i guess the governor's going to be fishing for votes there, huh, mike? >> reporter: we expect governor mitt romney to try to return to offense as he returns to the campaign trail hitting the economy. his campaign is emphasizing what governor romney would try to do to help middle class americans, things like improving education, energy independence, job training, increasing trade and helping small businesses. romney and his surrogates will hold some 24 events across 13 states emphasizing what he would do to help the middle class. the governor will do an event in golden, colorado, about an hour from now. a key county in colorado, jefferson county, and so the way that county goes may determine who wins this battleground state. then he'll be here in basalt holding a rally in the high school gym. he will be joined by some vip friends, republican governors chris christie of new jersey,

bobby jindal of louisiana and bob mcdonnell from virginia all helping him campaign here in basalt. the governors are nearby aspen at a republican governors' conference, they will get some pace time with the presumptive republican nominee. all this ahead of the monthly job numbers. so we expect the economy to be a big theme next couple of days. jon? jon: mike, you going to do any fishing while you're there? you ought to. [laughter] >> reporter: maybe after this lye shot, why knot -- live shot, why not? jon: those two presidential candidates are spending most of their time and money on those swing states we were talking about. let's take a look at some of the closest toss-up states and which way they're leaning. larry sabato is looking into his crystal ball. he, of course, is the director of the center for politics at the university of virginia. no surprise that president obama and governor romney are in those three states today, colorado, florida and virginia. let's take a look first at

florida. you say mitt romney cannot win this election unless he wins florida. why is that? >> if you look at the electoral college additions and subtractions, jon, i just don't see any way for him to get over 270. and i don't think his camp sees any way for him to get over 270 without winning florida. you know, jon, despite the current polls my gut feeling is that in the end romney will win florida. it may not be worth much, although as i get older my gut is expanding, there's more substance to my gut feelings. [laughter] but i do think romney in the end will probably have the edge in florida. jon: all right. florida you say likely romney. north carolina is a state that president obama won the last time, right? >> yes. and democrats just insist that they can do it again. at the crystal ball, we just don't see it. we have that leading romney. we do admit it's very close, but

we think in the end romney will probably win north carolina. after all, president obama only won it by 14,000 votes. it was his closest win nationally. and there's just no question he's not going to do as well in the popular vote or electoral college vote time as in 2008. jon: despite the fact that the democratic national convention is to be held there. well, we'll see be that changes anything. you changed a few states, indiana and missouri you said were leaning republican, now you say they are likely republican. what does that do for mitt romney? >> well, it's a boost for him, clearly. you know, they're two of the 39 states that we pretty much put to bed. that's kind of sad in a way, isn't it? that in the mid summer we can say pretty definitively 39 of the 50 states are going one way or the other. so i think missouri and -- missouri, of course, went to mccain narrowly. indiana was the biggest surprise of election night in going to obama. i think it's completely over in

indiana, it's completely over in missouri. both of those are in the romney camp. jon: and one that you now have likely democratic, new mexico, going for the president. larry sabato, we have to say good-bye, but it's going to be fun to watch over the next hyundais or so. thanks, larry. >> thank you, jon. look forward to it. jenna: new information on the solyndra scandal. the alarm bells sounded and by whom? well before the green energy company went belly up taking a half a billion of your tax dollars with it. plus, at least one home already gone, many more threatened. how a raging wildfire spread so quickly giving folks so little time to get to safety. we have that just ahead. while some fiber ads use super models,

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call the number on your screen. [♪...] jenna: right now we're keeping an eye on what is happening with the stock market. if you look at the dow it is heading lower and lower. in the last few moments that spread has taken up some speed. a lot has to do with what is going on in europe. there is question about a big financial firm here at home. 365,000 americans filed for unemployment claims in the latest week that is sure to be a market mover as well. alleged terror plot meantime in spain stopped in its tracks. police nabbing three suspected members of al qaeda. they say these guys gathered explosives and may have been plotting attacks inside the country or elsewhere in europe. the dangerous intensifying in merge's heartland.

the government is saying one fifth of the united states is experiencing extreme drought. nearly 2/3 experiencing some drought. definitely a story to watch. jon: some new information now about a bankrupt maker of solar panels that burned through, oh, half billion or so dollars of your tax money. fox news is learning white house budget analysts were raising alarm bells about the loan risks to the solyndra company well before that green company, once championed by president obama, went belly-up. chief washington correspondent james rosen has more on the timeline here. >> reporter: good afternoon. fox news was first to obtain the full report released today by the majority staff of the house energy and commerce committee which held five hearings on solyndra and reviewed more than 300,000 documents in the case. president obama himself toured solyndra's california plant back in may 2010. the firm would go bankrupt with the fbi raiding its offices some 15 months later. house republicans have zeroed in on the original

decision to use obama stimulus funds to provide more than half a billion dollars in loan guaranties to solyndra. also the subsequent decision, when the firm started failing, to restructure those loans, in a way that insured that private investors, including a key obama bundler would be first in line, not the taxpayers, to recoup lost fund in the event the firm did go belly-up as ultimately happened. newly-released e-mails showed an aide to white house budget director jack lew warned against restructuring the loan, arguing if the government cut its losses the hit to taxpayers could be held to a mere 140 million. doe and omb's review of the solyndra application were rushed this report find and the quality of those renews were negatively affected by political considerations. treasury and omb staff believed doe's decision to sub bored nate the government's decision to solyndra investors was not proper and whether it was consistent with the provision in the energy policy act of 2005.

>> the report also exposes jack lew, now the white house chief of staff, ignored the warnings of his own office of management and budget staff and failed to shut down solyndra, which cost taxpayers hundreds of millions of dollars. i think mr. lou and the white house owe the american people a sflags. >> reporter: white house spokesman eric schultz told fox news this morning all this evidence affirms, this was, a merit-based decision by the department of energy. he adds that the committees's probe said to cost upwards of a million dollars has produced quote zero evidence of political favorite tim. jon? jon: james rosen in washington. thank you. jenna: this fox news alert. firefighters getting a upper hand on the wildfire in california. it is the so-called volcano fire. it destroyed one home and injured several

firefighters. adam housley is in las vegas -- los angeles with more. the fire is contained 70 miles outside of los angeles in riverside county but those flames absolutely were dramatic and into the fight. only burned 350 acres but it did take down one home. we watched flames surround the home late yesterday afternoon. it seemed like firefighters had saved the home but maybe some embers or something got into the attic or somehow caught the house on fire. eventually it burned it to the ground. thankfully all the other homes in the area were spared. three firefighters suffered minor injuries. what does this does do is remind californians and people across the west how tinder dry it is out here. we've already seen major fires in colorado, in new mexico, in utah, in montana. california's fire season really hasn't even started yet. yesterday this fire sparked by workers trying to clear brush to help keep the fire suppression down in certain areas.

well, some of the equipment they used tangled with some barbed-wire, sparked this fire and it raced up the hillside in a matter of minutes. the area here is extremely dry. the good news this fire has been fully contained. the bad news, it burned down one home. but of course we still have a long ways to go. no rain usually comes to the west, at least most of the west until october. we have a couple of months of fire season. we haven't had the santa ana's come through here, the winds that california ceases in september, october and november. jenna. jenna: good context for us, adam. thankfully the fire is contained as you mentioned. >> reporter: absolutely. >> put aside all the polling for a second. what if you could predict the presidential election by looking at good old-fashioned data? meet a professor who accurately predicted the last three winners of the presidential popular vote and he says he has a pretty good idea who is going to win woman november. plus, just because you drive a smart car doesn't mean you're smart.

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it does something to yr heart. i think what people like most about the grilled food is the tast the flavor comes from that oak wood... the shrim the fresh fish, the steaks. it locks in the flavor, it seals in the juices so that when you put the fork in it, it just goes through it like butter. [ male announcer ] visit redlobster.com now for an exclusive $10 coupon. good through august 5th. [ charles ] my name is charles himple, i'm a red lobster grill master and i sea food differently. jenna: well, they call them smart cars, right? but the driver in this next story apparently didn't get the memo that was supposed to also include him or her. we'll find out more about this person. rick? >> reporter: the car was smart. the driver of, that is another story all together. police tried to pull this guy over. apparently he was driving erratically around lunchtime in houston. david wheaton wasn't having it and not stopping. take the smart car zipping all along the highways.

speeds reached 90 miles per hour. i did not know jenna, that those little cars can go that fast. apparently they can. here is where it gets good. he hit too much traffic and decided to pull out over into a residential neighborhood, his own neighborhood. how surprised do you think his neighbors were to see him arrested in his very own driveway. wheaton charged with dwi and probably some other things as well. you know, that is the way it goes sometimes. jenna: that is the first smart car chase i think we've seen on "happening now". >> we've seen motorcycle chases. regular car chases. >> right. >> reporter: you're right i think this was the first smart car chase we've featured. we'll look for more. jenna: they all end the same. >> reporter: they doll. jenna: even for the smart cars. rick, thank you. jon: you see so many polls but now some professors are using complex formula, complex formulas i should say with a near sterling record when it comes to predicting presidential election outcomes.

the only miss was gore versus bush in the year 2000. they were right about al gore winning the popular vote but they didn't factor in something called the electoral college. well here is the formula our next guest uses. he factors in presidential approval ratings, americans satisfaction with their personal finances, and part of it is whether or not one candidate is an incumbent. so when you plug in all of that information, who might be our next president? let's talk about it with thomas holbrooke. he says he already has an idea. he is wilder crane professor of government at the university of wisconsin-milwaukee and author of the book, "do campaigns". i guess they don't matter if i can give us a prediction based on these factors. spell it out for us, tell us how people's feelings about their economic circumstances work into what you do.

>> welling both the measure of economic satisfaction or personal finance satisfaction and the measure of presidential approval are really just intended to tap into the extent to which the public in general thinks things are kind of going in the right direction or wrong direction, how satisfied they are with the job the president's doing or, you know, what end up being one of the most important issues, the state of the economy. and you know, it's not rocket science. you know, if you're not happy with the way things are going, if, the president isn't held in high esteem, the economy is going in a negative direction. it's pretty certain people are going to throw the president out. if the economy is chugging right along, growing at two, three, 4% a year, it's almost certain the people are going to keep the president's party. this year it is kind of, you know, the signals are not exactly clear. there's a lot of, still a

lot of dissatisfaction with the economy, and dissatisfaction with personal finances but there has been improvement over the last two or three years. the president's approval rating while certainly not where he would like it to be, it's not down in jimmy carter land, not down in --. jon: bill clinton was right when he ran on the economic theme, it's the economy stupid? that's really the driving factor? >> well that's one of the most important factors. what was right about that was that his campaign, in 1992 recognized that and it made that the issue of the election. wasn't hard to do, okay? there was, there was a lot of negative economic news generally but they recognize the that that is what they had to do to win that election. that is sort of like, this year, what mitt romney has to do is make the election about the economy. it is not, people don't think the economy is in terrible shape, they're just not convinced it is recovered or recovering the way it should but it is really the -- go ahead.

jon: i wanted to point out that your methods have proven more accurate than presidential polls taken the day before the election. i mean right here in the middle of the summer you've been able to accomplish that. and i told folks that you think you know who is going to win this next election. so, let's go ahead and get that prediction. >> okay. well, i don't quite have it yet, okay? what i do i look at entire summer, june, july, august, but based on the way numbers are looking right now, and they're not going to change very much in the month of august, things might get a little better and might get worse, right now if i were putting money on it i would bet on mitt romney as the eventual winwer in a close race, in a close race. jon: everybody says it will be a close race. >> that is one thing --. jon: we're going to have to say good-bye. thomas holbrooke at the university of milwaukee-wisconsin. we will see how your

prediction turns out. >> great, thanks. jenna: we should ask him how much money is he willing to put on the line for that, as we get closer to the day. the president is praising the policies of former the president clinton as a successful model for a strong economy but how do the president's stack up with bill clinton's? jim angle will compare them up ahead for us. did suspected gunman, james holmes call a reality tv star and drop hints about his alleged plan to open fire on a movie theater? hear from an mtv star, on his conversation with holmes, and the another possible bizarre twist in this tragedy. we have that ahead. cause they dt with food. switch to citracal maximum plus d. it's the only calcium supplement that can be taken with or without food. that's why my doctor recommends citracal maximum. it's all about absorption.

jenna: the president

aligning himself with former president clinton embracing the former president's record that led to solid economic growth. democrats announcing earlier this week that mr. clinton will have a prime time spot addressing the national convention but when you look closely at the tax policies of both administrations what exactly do you fine? chief national correspondent jim angle is in washington with more on this. >> reporter: when the economy was growing at 2.3% in 2010 president obama said it was too weak to handle a tax increase as he agreed to extend all the bush tax cuts. now even though the economy is growing even slower at 1 1/2%, the president's pushing for tax increases anyway, with the economy even weaker though he needed a new argument to raise taxes and seized on bill clinton. >> i'm also going to ask anybody making over $250,000 a year to go back to the tax rates they were paying under bill clinton, back when our economy created 23 million new jobs, the biggest budget

surplus in history, and, everybody did well. >> there are times when you can raise taxes and have it not hurt the economy. unfortunately for barack obama this is not one of those times. i think to raise taxes now has opposed to during the clinton years would be very ruin news for the economy. >> reporter: the difference is the economy in the clinton years was soaring because of the dot-com and high-tech boom, unemployment was low, economic growth averaged 3 1/2% a year. incomes were rising so when clinton raised taxes the economy took it in stride. now however the situation is almost the exact opposite. >> we aren't in the 1990s anymore. we don't have a huge technological boom that will continue to propel the economy forward. >> during the clinton era we had a technology boom, a balanced budget and very accommodative fed easing rates. right now we have no new tech boom and we do not have a balanced budget and the

fed can't cut rates anymore. >> reporter: the situation he says is not comparable. nevertheless president obama needed a new rationale for raising taxes in a slow economy since he previously argued that would be a mistake. he hitched his wagon to the clinton con hi even though the obama economy bears little resemblance. jenna. jenna: timing is everything, something we know in live television. jim, thank you. >> reporter: okay. jon: bill clinton will be speaking at the democratic national convention. that is going to be interesting. a former governor and hollywood star setting up a think tank. arnold schwarzenegger puts millions of dollars on the line. we'll tell you what he is doing to try it help others benefit he says from his experience. [ female announcer ] the power to become a better investor has gone mobile.

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