has just gotten islands deal has just gotten a whole lot worse and a whole lot more expensive. all that and more expensive. all that and more on tonight's show. but first, it's time for your headlines. and here's tatiana sanchez. >> martin, thank you very much. and good evening. the top stories, three afghan nationals who were convicted in belgium over their involvement in a major people smuggling ring, have been arrested whilst on the run in the uk. prosecutors in belgium say they were part of a gang involved in organising the transport of migrants from afghanistan through iran and the balkans into western europe. authorities say they were also part of a group who committed serious sexual offences, including rape, against male migrant minors. the gang members now face being returned to belgium to serve their sentences, and extradition proceedings have also begun. a fourth body has been recovered from the english channel near calais, after three migrants

died when they fell from a small boat yesterday. french media reports say the body of the fourth man was found near the beach at sangatte this morning, a few hundred metres away from yesterday's incident. those three migrants died when they fell into the water, as their small boat was setting off for britain early in the morning. dozens of others were rescued after they fell from the overcrowded vessel. border security and asylum minister dame angela eagle said that ruthless criminals were responsible for overloading those boats. so far this year, 77 migrants have died trying to cross the channel. in other news, a national day of mourning and state funeral is due to be held on the 9th of january for former us president jemmy carter, who died at the age of 100. king charles paid tribute, saying it was with great sadness that i learned of the death of president carter. he was a committed public servant and devoted his life to promoting peace and human rights. joe biden praised him as a man of principle, faith and humility,

while donald trump said americans owe him a debt of gratitude. uk flags above westminster and downing street have been flying at half mast. mr carter died peacefully at his home in georgia. five people have been charged in connection with the death of one direction star liam payne at a hotel in argentina, according to local media. the 31 year old died in october after falling from the third floor balcony of a hotel in buenos aires. hotel manager gilda martin and hotel employee esteban grassi, as well as roger norreis, who was reportedly a friend of liam, have been charged with manslaughter. argentina's national criminal and correctional prosecutor's office is quoted as saying. bryan pace and ezequiel pereyra, who were both reportedly working at the hotel, have been charged with supplying drugs and edinburgh's hogmanay celebrations are cancelled due to high winds and extreme weather, organisers announced. hours ahead of celebrations kicking off today, weather warnings are also in place with

snow, wind and rain right across much of the uk on new year's day. yellow warnings are in place for northern ireland, northern england and parts of scotland from tomorrow before extending across most of the uk on wednesday. a series of warnings are in force and will stay and remain in place in some areas until 6 am. on the 2nd of january. the met office says there is likely to be travel disruption, with almost all of the country impacted by at least one yellow alert. and those are the latest gb news headlines. for now, i'm tatiana sanchez. i'll be back in an hour. >> thank you. you're now. welcome back to gbn tonight with me. martin daubney. and it's beginning to look a lot like a dismal new year for the labour government, because a shocking new poll has the keir starmers government losing an astonishing 200 seats at the next general election. if it were to be held today. and we could even see major cabinet casualties with the likes of angela rayner,

yvette cooper and ed miliband losing to reform and wes streeting, the health secretary possibly losing their seats to a pro gaza independence. and that would mean that nigel farage's reform uk would emerge as the third largest parliamentary party, with another four years to go until the next general election. can labour turn it around? well, joining me now to discuss this is the associate director of more in common, which is a firm that has conducted this mega poll. conlon burns conlon. welcome to the show. it's been a torrid six months for the labour party, but this really was the christmas present that sir keir starmer did not want. some disastrous figures and some big name casualties if this goes through. tell us more. >> well, the main story out of this, as you said, is the real drop in support for labour since that historic victory in july, and they're now projected to lose around 200 seats in in our polling. and there's really a few reasons why this has

happened. as you mentioned there already, the momentum of reform uk is really having a major effect here in the party with the momentum at the at the minute predicted to gain around 67 seats in this poll, and the conservative recovery in the conservative recovery in the conservative heartlands, predicted to gain around 101 seats based on their baseline in july. that's mainly limited to their former heartlands, where labour won seats for the first time, and then the third area where labour are being punished by voters is in scotland as well. the snp are set to gain 28 seats there and bring up to about 37 seats in scotland. that's not as good as as their historic victory in 2019, but it's a major recovery and those three main areas are where labour are likely to lose support over the course of the parliament. and the challenge to starmer and the government is to turn that around and conlon with the conservative party in the last general election, the

conversation was there's no such thing as a safe seat. >> and of course, ministers tend to get put in the safest of safe seats. and that's why when you see the roll call of people who could bite the bullet angela raynen could bite the bullet angela rayner, ed miliband, wes streeting yvette cooper, lisa nandy, bridget phillipson and jonathan reynolds and pat mcfadden this is the top brass. this is the elite of the labour party shows that politics is so volatile, literally nobody seems safe. >> yeah, and that's absolutely right. and i mean, there's four and a half years to go until the next general election. president trump is likely to become president and finish being president and finish being president before we have a general election again in the uk. so there is a bit of time, but the current picture is not suggesting any safe seats for many members of the cabinet. and actually the more interesting story from all of this, the bigger story here is the fragmentation of british politics, but also the marginality . 271 of these seats marginality. 271 of these seats

are predicted to be won on with the, with the winning candidate winning less than a third of the vote. and now that's not normal. in a first past the post system, it's more likely to be seen on the continent with their pr systems, but with first past the post systems, we're more likely to have larger. normally, it's likely to have larger majorities in each constituency, and so that shows the fragmentation of british politics, but also a real challenge for our electoral system more broadly. >> conlon do you think that we might be at something which we haven't seen in well over 100 years, and that is first past the post seems to be a barrier to any insurgent party. no one has yet successfully broken through in any way, like big enough numbers to overturn majorities, let alone to achieve their own majority. but with this volatility, with there being so many voters who sat on their sofas at the last election with potentially millions of dollars coming in from elon musk to get new people to vote, to get young people to vote, do you think something historic could

happen? do you think there could be that tipping point where we see something fresh breaking through? >> well, i think we're already seeing something fresh breaking through. and this prediction that we're doing here, and there are five parties that have more than 30 seats projected in this polling that's been done over the last six weeks or so. so within the current rules of the current system, and, you know, there are insurgent parties breaking through. the challenge will be on forming a government. when you look at those numbers, even to try and get a majority for the labour party, if they want to continue in office after the next election is going to require a five party coalition, really, to get 1505 00:08:38,160