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is a martyr in your eyes. in the name of allah, the most merciful, the most merciful. greetings to you, the people of iran, ladies and gentlemen. welcome to the front row . perhaps, among all the news that each of them has fans or does not attract people, weather news is more than any other news. it is important for all people, especially in recent years, how to cover the news meteorology has undergone serious changes and is more connected to people's lives, thanks to the presence of new generation meteorologists in radio and television news . well, with this introduction, i would like to say that the guest

of the first page of the program tonight is dr. tajbakhsh, the respected head of the country's meteorological organization. thank you in the name of allah, the merciful, the most merciful. i am also at the service of you colleagues and respected viewers of this program . i wish you good health. let's start with a report . i beg you, this rainfall should have reached the average of 61 mm in the country by now. less than the normal conditions , unfortunately, what was predicted at the beginning of autumn it did not become a reality. although the rains in october and november were favorable. but they consider the heat of azar to be the reason for the fall predictions not being fulfilled. the temperature anomaly in december is a record. in december, we used to get about 30... rains, on

average we got only 8 millimeters in the country. although the amount of rainfall this fall and last year is the same and less than the country's needs, but in terms of the distribution of rainfall this year, the conditions are better. the rain that has come is lacking in almost all the countries, but the explanation is relatively good. now, i think that we have not had a very bad situation in terms of agriculture, anyway. 3 we had four rain waves. which has almost prepared the conditions for agriculture , our concern is more after this, the forecasts of the meteorological organization show that the rainfall conditions will be normal in the winter season . we hope that, in any case, with the changes that may take place , especially in the region of your latitude and the polar regions

, it can create circulations that will actually mess up the calculations. southern ones penetrate and strengthen these atmospheric systems that form and pass over the mediterranean , then we can hope to have a good winter. experts say that entering the fourth consecutive year of drought , the negative effects of low rainfall will be greater than in the past. saeed hajizadeh sda news agency, well, mrs. doctor, of course , they said part of the story in the report of our colleagues, but you should explain more about what happened, this el nino phenomenon, you will explain more about what it is, why it didn't happen to all people, or why it had an effect. on our country as predicted

well, you see, meteorological forecasts are basically based on solving the differential equations of the atmosphere by mathematical methods, and what can be seen from the name of this job, this is a forecasting job, that is, we observe evidence, we see it, and based on that we export our forecasts. well, almost since may , we have been monitoring the forecast patterns for fall and winter this year . it shows that in the middle east region, including iran, in fact there is an increase in rainfall, especially in the western parts of the country, and the same situation continued until september . we usually present this information to the government board through the honorable minister of roads

and urban development every 45 days and two months. and based on my evidence, there was an increase in rainfall , of course, this increase in rainfall is basically based on probabilities. and in the mid-latitude region where our country is located, there is a 60 to 70 percent probability of these happening, so it was also reported in the supreme water council with the same literature. well, the solutions in the world for these predictions it exists and they are used, it is looked at as a tool, that is, it is a means to actually promote the activities that are related to these predictions. basically, we cannot do our activities in different fields based on predictions , we have to create scenarios. different areas such as water, agriculture, environment, etc. should be defined , and if these possibilities happen, we should proceed with the scenario of happening , and if it does not happen

, we should proceed with the pessimistic scenario. the same thing was mentioned and the pessimistic scenario was also emphasized especially, god willing , pessimistic scenarios should be put on the agenda in the areas of agriculture, water resources management and environment, which are the 3 main areas that are related to meteorological information, so that the least amount of damage is caused. definitely, we ourselves are most inclined to make these predictions happen, but sometimes things happen in the atmosphere that lowers the predictability. one of the most important ones is actually the increase in temperature that happened in 2023. 2023 turned out to be the hottest year in earth's history in fact, and that basically caused the hollow patterns at least in the region. we ourselves, who carefully observed, are very consistent with what we have seen since may. well, in october, we had about 12 mm, a little more than

the averages. the long-term averages of the country's rainfall were higher. in november, this reached the normal level. december had very bad conditions. that is, if the situation in october and november continued , the predictions would almost come true. in december, what happened was a record in the country and in our region, and of course in the world, we also experienced the hottest summer , probably the hottest autumn of the year. we had 2023 and, god willing, the winter data may come now let the same thing happen again, i have two samples of information that i have checked in recent days , according to the sensitivity, we are collecting different data in different layers of information. the kilometer which is known as 500 tectopascals and obviously the middle of the atmosphere

is about the middle of the layer in which we actually consider the activities of the atmosphere , it was about 5 degrees warmer than the long-term averages compared to 700 hectopascals which is about 1000. the same thing happened to him. this means that the entire column of hunger an unprecedented heat occurred from the surface of the earth almost to the upper layers, which unfortunately had not been seen to this extent in any of the forecast models. in some cities , including parsabad, we had a record temperature of about 19 degrees celsius (19 degrees celsius). we had an increase in temperature on some days, and this was truly unprecedented in december. and the maximum temperature reached 30 degrees in parsabad, which is approximately it is one of the highest stations or the northernmost stations in the country . we experienced it. well, it was a new experience for all of us . it seems that it could be one of the consequences of the change. it is the climate that appeared in our region like this, and

it had not been seen in numerical forecasting models to this extent, and in azar we actually experienced very bad conditions in terms of precipitation. is predictability tied to many possibilities or not more than possibilities it depends on the current knowledge, both factors play a very important role. and the meteorological equipment basically goes back to the development of the meteorological observation network. all the data and information you can collect at the country level, at the regional level, in the world, use these data as input for these numerical forecasting models. is used well, definitely in the regions of the globe that have better input data, the models respond better . in places like our region, well, not only in our own country, in some countries. the data around us is actually not very dense, the network is not very dense, the model is running, but

maybe we will not get a good response from the models, especially in the situation where these consequences happen . our situation as a whole, i can almost say that we have many modern tools in the country in the field of meteorology. the density of this monitoring network is important i will only give two examples here , approximately in 10 11 countries that we checked , which includes both developed countries and developing countries, regarding automatic weather stations, the average distance between the stations in these 10 15 countries that we saw that about 20 kilometers in our country is almost 100 kilometers, so there is actually a huge difference in collecting this data with the density. ok, we have a network of radars in the country, for example, in some countries, for example

, in the neighboring country of turkey, whose area is almost half of our country, now a little more or less, about 17 it has meteorological radar, well, our country is much less equipped, despite the fact that our country's area is also larger, well, one of its principles is actually the development of our observation equipment, which will be collected in the data bank in the long term and used as our input. be it forgiveness is also specialized knowledge. considering that we are a member of the world meteorological organization, we try to connect our colleagues with the information and knowledge that is actually produced there . there are definitely some problems in our knowledge. we ourselves know better than anyone where our troubles are more, but the issue of equipment the data and information collected through this network and provided to the models play an essential role. do you have a prediction that when this equipment will reach the standard you want? well

, we can tell you in the seventh program, for example, if something has been seen or not? yes, we , the meteorological organization , made a lot of effort during the writing of the 7th program in the parliament, so that we could, in the form of one or two clauses, consider the issue of the consequences of climate change, which is necessary, the monitoring network of the monitoring network of the country. let's include it in the program in some way in the related consultation commissions a lot of things were done, unfortunately, none of the two or three paragraphs that we wanted were included in the program. i hope that in the budget program of 1403, which is on the agenda , at least for the next year, issues related to meteorology will definitely be included, and the issue that the development of our observation network is a necessity in terms of being able to better monitor the atmospheric parameters and

look for it. we will be able to issue better forecasts as the main products of the meteorological organization and make them available to our specialized users and general users. through specialized commissions that, god willing, both the government and the parliament will help, if we can do this in the budget of the meteorological organization, a significant leap will happen. in fact, we have passed the growth , it should be credited. interested parties or analysts and experts, let's see what numbers we are talking about. look at the credits of the meteorological organization in the acquisition of capital assets. it is definitely compared to what happens in many institutions and their work is monitoring and surveillance in various fields. now we are in the fields of atmospheric sciences , it is much less. the important point is that many of our equipment is bought from abroad, and considering

the fluctuation of currency prices and obviously the issue of embargo , it is very difficult for us to provide these, and the world is also developing and improving, as i said, today we have a serious gap in the field of automatic stations. with the developed countries, we got the latest reports produced by the majlis research center , the difference is huge. in fact , he has compared the credits of the iranian meteorological organization with almost several different countries, including china, including saudi arabia, turkey, both in the region and outside the region, maybe some are more than 10 times the credits of the meteorological organization. there are more, that is, what number should come in the meteorological organization? well, i say, because it is very dependent on the rate, in fact, it is the currency, with today's situation, one effort per year, if the meteorological organization can actually secure its construction credits, it can

have something to say on the network within 5 years. country surveillance, well, this data will be collected after several years and, as the famous saying goes, it will become a specific database that can be cited and used in the models. very well, let's see another report and come back. you can see that the roofs of the houses are completely dry the tangent of silasa rains in a part of the country. and the spread of desert and dust in another point indicates the occurrence of an event called climate change . our country is severely exposed to the risk of climate change and the dangers caused by climate change , such as floods, fires , and droughts. the increase in fossil fuel consumption in the past years has led to the entry of carbon dioxide , methane, and water vapor. as a result of

the presence of these gases in the atmosphere, it increases the greenhouse effect and causes global warming in the medium term. have became. in our country, there is also a two-degree increase in temperature and a decrease 45 mm of rain during the last 50 years indicates the impact of climate change. iran's average rainfall was about 250 to 60 mm, now it has reached about 200 mm , that is, in recent years, if we want to take an average, or this year, the average rainfall of the country has become 175 mm. it is fully showing its effect. sudden and torrential rains, which are not only unusable, but cause flooding and damage. changing the precipitation pattern of continuous droughts in the past years, along with the phenomenon of rain and dust and the average increase in temperature in recent years is one of the most obvious signs of climate change in our country. our recent studies show that the intensity of

land destruction and desertification is at least one million hectares per year. we accept the country. we know that fear is a phenomenon for us, not a good year. this year, we have seen the storms of ghardu gwa, which affected many provinces and cities of the country . well, these are the effects of climate change. development in recent years regardless of its entanglement with the intensified environmental concept of the organization environment, as the guardian of the country's climate change issue, is preparing the country's climate change society bill , it is promised. we will present it to the government in one month. if the determination of the responsible institutions and institutions is not taken seriously despite the legal emphasis to reduce the destructive effects of this phenomenon, climate change will impose far more destructive and costly effects on our country . moshiri radio news agency. 18 minutes

have passed since the program on the first page, whose guest is the respected head of the meteorological organization. there are countries, ms. dr. tajbakhsh , this is something that was broadcast in cyberspace a few days ago about the difference in rainfall between that side of the border and that side. the border, for example, on the side of azerbaijan, west azerbaijan, and turkey. how true can these words be from a scientific point of view, and basically, is the climate war now, in its various forms, an issue that is discussed in scientific circles. and whether the world's university is reliable or not? yes, you mentioned an issue that is being talked about a lot in cyberspace today. well, you see , basically, the occurrence of precipitation is actually super processes that have a specific definition in the atmosphere, one of the main factors that help it causes

unstable atmospheric systems to form, the topography of the region means presence. manual elevations on the ground and level there is moisture. if these two are combined with unstable conditions, it can produce rain . if there is no humidity, these will turn into wind and dust storms and such. how are unstable conditions defined in jab? when you move in straight lines. they are known as convection currents basically. it means when these are created, it means that the air is warm in the lower layers. in the current layers, if the air is cold , heavy cold air will come to the lower layers and this current of light warm air will go up and this current will be formed. this flow that is formed if with moisture and these together can lead to the shape. clouds and instabilities with cloudiness and rain and so on. one of the factors that help to form these patterns

is the topography effects at the regional level, for example, the mountains, the location of the mountains. one of the factors that helps the rainfall to be high is the amount of moisture that is injected into the area. well, first of all, turkey is located at a higher latitude than us. the width of the country is smaller than iran. two seas, in fact , are a significant source of moisture, such as the mediterranean sea in the south and the black sea in the north of this country. therefore, his weather patterns are different from ours. most of the atmospheric systems that are activated there should not operate over iran. i want to say that the fact that the countries are on the same border does not mean that they have similar atmospheric systems. the systems over the country of turkey affect a corner of our northwest strip, sometimes

there are systems over the mediterranean sea , especially all the countries west of our western border, such as iraq, syria, turkey, even the south of turkey , they cover all of these. they will reach iran, so something may happen in turkey it turns out that the average annual rainfall in turkey is two different countries with two different climates, while this year with the warming that happened in the middle east, the conditions were completely different . short distances, definitely, definitely, in two countries , which are very different

. let me give you an example. in tehran, the distance between tehran and nowshahr is approximately 20-200 kilometers. this is in the middle, so the currents from the caspian sea, as a source of moisture, is relatively smaller than the other two seas and enters the north of iran. after hitting the alborz mountain range , it rains on the same side and does not come to this side of the mountain very often. this makes the climate of these two regions with are very different or even closer than those 2 cities in chaharmahal bakhtiari province like kurd city and kohrang with in fact both in the same province with a distance of about 50 km a little more or less but with completely different snow cover from each other average snow cover in kohrang, about 60 cm , the average snow cover in kurd city is much, much less from this amount, the non-atmospheric factor is basically not active there, in such a small distance , there are so many differences, in fact

, there is snowfall throughout the year. in fact, they are not very scientific, maybe a pseudo-scientific view can help them, for example, the drying up of lake urmia, and i don't know, methane gas, etc. you are talking about lake urmia, almost from the mid-1980s. well, definitely part of it the problems are also related to the lack of rainfall, as we had good rains in the country in 2018 , because of the floods that came, you must remember , it actually raised some of the level of urumi lake, but what is basically on urumi lake today. in fact, in the circles of officials , there is the issue of water resources management . well, the construction of the levels, the increase of the level , the lowering of the sea level and the non-observance

of the environmental rights and many other factors were perhaps the most important factor. to the consequences of climate change that happened in that area and a question again, because these are rumors that are published in cyberspace, sometimes foreign sources are also cited, it may confuse the minds of some parts of the society, but we do not know how scientific this is, for example, climate war, how much can you see this climate war if if there is a country or a capacity in the world that can take over the huge energies of the atmospheric systems , it is definitely not a hidden thing. this power can be so great that it can easily spread and rule everywhere. the energy of the atmospheric systems is very large. are. and that we are in with a small-scale processes it doesn't necessarily make sense to try to influence them too much, but if the concept of climate war

is the consequences of climate change. and there are consequences that are caused by the increase in the temperature of the earth . yes, countries can actually reach this. in fact, it is a stage of disagreement because the consequences lead to a decrease in water resources. the arc that we see in our region is one of the main areas of the earth. that there is water tension, a part of this tension could possibly be one of the consequences of climate change, now i will ask you about this later , what should we do with this phenomenon of climate change and should we just for example, let's save on consumption, which may be one of the accessories, but should we just settle for this or can we do something else ? also tell us about the fan phenomenon, what it is and what effect it can have on the amount of rainfall in the northwest of the country. fon is a

local phenomenon as meteorologists say. it happens on a small scale . it is similar to what i said in the field. in fact , it happens between tehran and the northern coastal provinces . a hot and humid air flow moves south from the caspian sea. it starts to climb with the alborz range, because the air mass is humid while climbing, it absorbs more moisture because it gets colder and it rains on the same side of the mountain . there is a hot and dry current in tehran and now in other provinces . this hot and dry wind is known as fan wind . it can happen in many areas, usually in the direction of the air flow is known for the part of the mountain that is in the direction of the air flow, on the windward side of the mountain , the weather is moderate and good, on the other side, which is back to the wind and is known as the shelter of the mountain wind, the

weather is rainy because the air temperature does not drop too much. we have significant ones here. what should we do? we should adapt to this phenomenon of climate change , in the sense of putting our hands together and just finally saying that we should manage our consumption or can we do more than this. there is an organization in the world

called. climate change is under the supervision of the united nations, and both the issue of monitoring climate change and the solutions that countries should take for this situation are discussed in it . there are three main working groups. and there are climate forecasts of the second working groups regarding adaptation climate change solutions that order. the vulnerability of countries and societies and the diversity of countries and societies provide solutions. in fact, one of the most important solutions is the use of clean energy capacities, which is very, very important and can be considered as one of the main solutions that can actually reduce the warming of the air to some extent and countries have plans for it.

brings up there, well, according to it also defines the capacity of the countries, the population of the countries, the infrastructure of the countries, the resilience of the countries and specifies the solutions that if the countries specifically carbon they produce more. in fact, the paths to reduce this carbon must be taken. different scenarios for climate change are defined depending on the amount of greenhouse gas production, because what basically causes this warming is the production of greenhouse gases that many countries produce. of course, our country is one of several countries. in fact, it is on top of the table that we produce a lot of greenhouse gases. there are many solutions, including the use of clean energy sources and capacities that match the geographical compatibility of the country. all countries in different areas should program for this, they have to manage their water resources in the field of agriculture, which is actually a part of water consumption there.