if you are interested , follow this discussion to the bottom and also follow the economy on khabar network. please, thank you . yes, you are with the economy desk and we want to talk about the imbalance between production and consumption. let's talk gasoline , let's see the picture together, let's take a look at the statistics , let's see how the production, consumption, and import situation has been since 1968. you can see that until 1997 , the yellow line you have is almost too much. you can see that there is an upward trend. every year, what i insist on is between, for example, 7 to 10%, we have an increase in gasoline consumption, and the latest statistics that we published in the first 6 months this year compared to the same period last year, we have a 7% growth in gasoline consumption. the big number

is because there are different reasons. now, the first reason is, for example, you may have seen everywhere that i mentioned that the discussion is, for example, the price, but you can't ignore other variables such as the fuel consumption of cars, the weakness of public transportation, which can be replaced by private cars, and that. kurds or the discussion of our abortion , which we will discuss in the programs of this program, but as i told you, you can see that this trend that started in 1968 is still going up and in the year there were many very short periods, either stable or decreasing, for example, one was in 1986, which you know , the year i want to visit you is the target of iran. we look at the next picture together. we are witnessing changes in our consumption situation. 98 also at a certain point because of the price change we have because some experts just say that the price change is not a good change because it will become almost ineffective after a few years. every few years there is a

price change, sometimes seen in different years we were also in the form of shock therapy. for example , in the morning, when i came to your presence, we realized that the price of gasoline had changed, and some unfortunate things would happen, but after a few years, naturally, we will return to the same track again because we fixed the price in a period of , say, 10 years. that our inflation, for example, has been high , again the price of gasoline has been left behind by inflation and has not adjusted itself to many other variables. and we have our gasoline consumption that we have to look at the black line let's do it and you can see that imports decreased in 2086 and production increased at some point in 2078. this happened in 2019. so, the issue of star refinery in the persian gulf is almost well known that this is happening. you can see that production has increased very well. but again , in addition to the fact that the star refinery of the persian gulf

came into orbit, we even had a large part in a gasoline exporter game. let's look at the statistics together we have until 1498, well, of course, you remember what happened, you can see that the import was almost zero, our consumption was 89 million liters , our production was 115 million, which means that the production was more than the consumption, of course, there was no need to import gasoline . since 1400, you can see that we have reached the break-even point of 969, which means that the production is close to the consumption, and naturally, it was from there that the importation of gasoline began . of course, the statistics you have you see, 1403 is a bit more or less, we can increase it , both production and consumption . well, anyway, you can see that no

matter how hard it is, we are doing our production, we are doing our imports, all this shows that in any case, in any order, and in the end , there must be a change in the country's fuel situation, it is just a matter of discussion. the price is not the first solution , the price is not the solution either, but the statistics show us that this imbalance must be corrected somehow, how should this imbalance be corrected. to bring the least pressure to the society is the topic of today's program that we want to talk about with experts. before entering into the discussion , my colleagues in sada sima news agency's energy group will prepare a report and see it together . we will come back and start the conversation. the average daily production of gasoline in the country lags behind the average daily consumption of this fuel. the president said that we have 110 million liters of gasoline production , 130, which apparently in recent days up to 135, i think it is true. 40 the president's receipt

interprets mr. aref's sentence as follows: we will give 5 billion money to we import gasoline from abroad and they are consuming it. according to the former ceo of the national refining and road traffic distribution company, the only time iran exported gasoline was from the end of 2018 to petroleum products due to the corona epidemic and restrictions. we were faced with corona , the country's consumption was very low, and after the end of the corona epidemic in the 13th government, gasoline consumption. it increased sharply in 1400, this mazdak number was 317 billion consumption, actually it was our gasoline, now we actually forecast 46, what does this mean, the difference between these is a number of 39 million liters, the officials of the ministry

oil in the 14th government is considered to be the cause of this increase in consumption, along with the increase in road traffic, the chaos of the automobile industry, which was over 1 million 200 thousand units in its year. the vehicle will be added to the transport fleet, the removal of these worn-out vehicles is being done slowly. now, mr. bizikian has asked the mps, experts and the media to come up with a solution to manage gasoline consumption before the 14th government. finally, one day we will have to let's think about what we want to do , that day should not be a time when it is too late , president. according to the seventh plan, in less than four months there is time to formulate the community plan for the supply and allocation of energy carriers in the country's transportation network and to get it approved by the cabinet of ministers. ruqiyeh hoyda of radio and television news agency,

we saw and heard the report of my colleague. mr. safar, energy expert of sharif policy think tank, mr. ashuvori, general secretary of oil refining industry workers' union , will also be added to the youth by phone. greetings to all the guests of the program, i would like to start with mr. rafiei and this question, which is basically the statistics we saw together. what variable factors caused that today, despite the fact that we were able to increase our production capacity in different years, we became a gasoline importer again, in the name of allah , the most merciful, the most merciful . may allah and peace be upon the service of our compatriots . look, in my opinion, we have not gone through a very unusual routine from a historical point of view, and

it was completely predictable that we would reach this level of consumption and even imbalance, and our production level is now almost the same. i can say about 7 8 million liters may be lacking compared to consumption , while if you look at iran , among the countries of the world, it is a country with a very high refining capacity, and we have almost pushed the refining capacity in a way, and it is planned that it is based on the production of maximum gasoline. ok, i can say that iran is one of the countries with this amount of population. with a large production of gasoline , it is one of the largest producers of gasoline, and we can say that there is no particular disadvantage in terms of production, but much better planning should be done in the field of consumption .

may allah, the most merciful and the most merciful, bless you, i would like to share with you about the holidays that there were perhaps two general thoughts about the disagreement. someone who is now my representative may not be present in this meeting . now, what happened to the refineries, and i am at your service, is the lack of control of production by them, which is manageable because of them . they can control its ratio with gasoline and other products, or the government can create this requirement . the issue has started that this flow has been messed up , but the thing about natrazi is clear, maybe we need to say that we can produce more than what we have now . yes, yes, i

am giving you my opinions, but the other issue is that, obviously, personal consumption is actually high, although it is inconvenient , but the price is low. this is the issue , but we are not here, which is the easiest way, which is to increase the price. actually, let's solve this challenge , but we know that this low price is also light it has changed life, even secondary expenses. it has created a procedure which is now significant in my opinion. you believe more in this second situation . even the non-optimal consumption of cars, apparently, according to the statistics that the children of the energy research center have extracted this from us. approximately , our average car is 23% more than the average car in the world. now, contrary to what

we think, our cars are many times more expensive. they consume more, apparently it's not that much , but it all depends on the global average consumption of our cars. yes, this is taking into account, for example, worn-out cars, which have different consumption. leave the matter aside. these issues in transportation technologies are all caused by public transportation. now, you know the main reason for this disagreement is the price issue. now, i just want to say one more thing. sorry, for secondary consumption, there are even issues like discussion. lighting and heating and these things because this application for gasoline has apparently been found now. in the villages , it is even used for heating and lighting. yes, this issue may have fueled the issue of smuggling and other

issues, apart from domestic transportation, but do you still believe that the most important reason we are importing gasoline today is our consumption situation, the price of fuel is low. there is, mr. ashuri, the general secretary of the oil refining industry employers' association , mr. ashuri, you are a little more precise than the daily gasoline production statistics. he thinks that we can produce more gasoline than what we have now . i will give you more details, please, in the name of allah, the merciful , the merciful. i also offer greetings and courtesy to my dear friends and listeners. the fact is that the refinery is responsible for supplying fuel. they are in charge of the country, and in fact, the second part of it is special products that are actually produced for the downstream industry. what is certain is that we have

to state that we did not have a decrease in production in our refineries, the statistics show that there was an increase in production compared to the previous years. we had and what actually caused the disharmony could be several reasons, first of all , i apologize for the statistics, before we get to these first reasons, we can discuss the statistics together, check the statistics. in order to overhaul the refinery , there should be more than 10 and 12 million liters per day, the average and our consumption is more than this, that is, it is not something like 78 million . in fact, our consumption is more than the production.

we produce, but due to indiscriminate consumption or excessive production the government's request is that we don't use euro 4 and euro 5 gasoline too much, because we need it. provide the country . what is certain is the capacity of the refineries , they are working in all three shifts and producing, but what our brother mentioned is that we consume 23% more than the so-called world average consumption. this is what we are talking about. 23 is

that we should not expect too much from the refineries, we should do the consumption management properly. let's say, including the 23% that we consume more than the world, this is 23 million liters daily , which means that if this is prevented, we will not need to import. therefore, what is certain is that we also have challenges, and i do not want to mention those challenges. why point it out , it is not a problem, tell me what the challenge is in which field, we have 13 approved projects that we are currently implementing, the challenge we have is in financing, the same currency, the riyal, we can offer you the supply of parts, according to the embargo. we supply something like 80 from inside, but only 20

we have to enter your service. paying the government's debt to the refineries, our liquidity has decreased drastically. how much does the government owe you to the refinery? the latest statistics we have about the financial statements of 1402 168 hamat, the government should pay the refinery. what is this 168 thank you for, tell me exactly about the exchange that is done between the so-called the food that we buy and the products that we deliver to the government, the main products of gasoline, gas, oil, aviation fuel, the assignments that come in the budget, and actually the refineries are private sector, they have shareholders, the government is also putting pressure on them. the parliament is also putting pressure, including naftal lok code and kium batum, these are among the assyrian products, all of our

current capacity, which you said , cannot be more than 112 million. if something happens, of course , giving a solution requires the existence of data that can be based on that happening

. how much gasoline is running out for us in the country, so that we want to make changes in, for example, its price or in your presence? how to explain and re-explain, you can see that there are clear data about the production and consumption statistics that you said, in the average year of 1402, the production of our oil refineries was about 11 and a half million liters per day through mixed by reforming petrochemicals and heminor, in fact, we were able to increase our production to 112.5 million liters per day, while our average consumption was approximately 118 million liters per day, which means that i think that 5 million liters per day is at least

we had a deficit in the last year, but this deficit is in lambs a time like now, september, when we know the season. at all, it is the first time that this way of interacting with the people and just observing the price policy, and this is actually far from making gasoline more expensive now, then again after some time, the effect of the increase in the price of gasoline due to the inflation that is created will wear off. this goes back to 1343. on december 3, 1343, in the government of mr.

hassan ali mansour, gasoline increased from 5 rials to 10 rials, and if you read the history, it is mentioned that in fact, high inflation was created . army vehicles for transportation passengers should use the warnings of the sherabani department and the ministry of interior regarding public gatherings and taxis in durrani . riots broke out, bakeries were set on fire , gasoline containers were set on fire, that is, the same events that happened in the country in 1988, exactly 60 years 1343 14. in these 60 years, we must we could have solved this problem , but we didn't, i think now. we have reached a certain point , by the way, maybe these dissatisfactions will cause us to resolve this matter in a properly managed way. see, i told you that we have a very good situation in the field of production.

if i want to compare it with our neighboring country. turkey, they have exactly the same population as ours, about 88 million people, and even of course they use more gasoil and even have a higher gp than us . higher gp means more fuel consumption. turkey only uses 9 million liters per day of gasoline , it also has 16 million liters of gas , it uses natural gas in light gas stations, this is also possible , it also has 25 million liters and 10 million liters of diesel fuel in gas stations. his style uses 35 million liters, how do we have a total of 135 million liters per day, the total consumption of gasoline and thirty it is about 115 million liters of gasoline per day, if you consider it. if we take approximately 20 million liters of cng consumption , it is equivalent to 135 million liters, which means that we are consuming 100 million liters of gasoline more than turkey . what is the reason

for this? it is true that people are actually subject to government policies. people want to have a type of transportation and traffic in the city. now, they do this through public transportation. either by car or by bicycle when we compare between our own country and the country, if a country has done a good job in the world, we should follow the example of that country. when we compare, we see the reason for the difference in our public transportation infrastructure with them, in the lines, actually the train. and metro, urban and suburban buses, and at your service the variety of fuel baskets that i told you, unfortunately, we only offer gasoline, of course. fuel, but besides this, we can use electric cars, we can actually use lpg fuel, and when we look, we still see that when it comes to

the problem, the problem is that it is always about gasoline. in our country, we keep the price constant for a few years , then where does the discussion of price increase start from the budget deficit that is created and from the facts and actually the words that the planning and budget organization gives and the motivation of all governments. usually , the increase in the price of gasoline is to compensate for the budget deficit . if this budget deficit is met through gasoline, in this situation, it will never lead to the development of public transportation, which means that we did not make a long- term plan for this issue. our goal is to compensate for the government's budget deficit, which is completely wrong according to what is being said now, because we are the first thing that will happen, for example, we are importing 5 billion dollars of gasoline, 5 billion dollars is putting pressure on our budget, so we are forced to adjust the price, which is not a pressure of 5 billion dollars. my money, for example

, we spend on transportation, something that we heard last year too that this will not happen according to your order, mr. safar, what do you think, do you think that in terms of infrastructure, if we want to look at it , it is over in terms of price, because you said that the price of fuel now the low price is one of the main events it makes the consumption high. how much do you value the finished price? see, i really prefer not to do the price issue in a simple way as our friend said, that is, the price increase model means to keep compressing the spring and releasing it, the swelling effect is not desirable to anyone. i don't think that we have seen strange things in the previous government. it happened to me in 2018 and there were heavy pressures.

experience it and really, if we are talking about price increase at least now, we are talking about another model , that is, it requires an introduction and using the capacity of the public base that is created and its load is for the subject of increase. it is the price that creates the value that we want, so now consider us, now you say 5 billion, i said mr. president, yes, now 8-9 billion in the next year, for example, maybe the forecast will reach 16 to 20 billion, but somewhere around what makes it worse is that we see that the tithes actually do not have a proportional benefit, for example, you can see that the tenth tithe has something like 17 times, it is using this subsidy more. for example, he is consuming in some way

actually , i do not receive any share of this subsidy from that person who, for example, about 40 percent of our citizens do not have a car or a motorcycle, but some critics say to this point of yours, for example, they use taxis , they they don't have a car, of course, take into account that we now have public transportation, is it suitable at all or not? now i don't know if you use the subway , we will use it ourselves . yes, the situation is not favorable. i'm telling you, look, i'm one step ahead, i'm at your service the price, but before that, we have to get the social base, the popular and social base, because we can't touch the price, we can't touch the disharmony , we can't handle the budget deficit again, the pressure will come to the people in another way, but this slow and continuous movement is actually there is a need for a re -explanation of the subsidy issue, whether it

is to be allocated to all people , gasoline to be given to all citizens, but with a series of mechanisms, including, for example, the management of market emotions, to be controlled in some way and from the effects of inflation that we also consider and all that we know that no one can deny it, we want to avoid it, that is, first of all, this correction should be done in such a way that it is not a shock treatment all at once, for example , if there is going to be a price change, some steps should be taken before that price change is very visible, for example, in the morning. friday, for example, did not happen. somehow , or even we can separate the issue, for example, general . this is all a control that can be done with these subtleties. this is the issue. we had experience in kish. now, if the meeting continues, yes, i will give you a price from mr. ashuvori. it might be more accurate how much is halide gasoline going to cost us for the country? it is very accurate. maybe

we can show you a calculation made by our friends and colleagues . it was over 30 tomans. i don't know the latest situation. now let us know how much it was. i didn't understand. 30 tomans is 30 tomans. yes, taking into account the price of oil, you are saying yes, if we adjust it , how much will be produced, i don't know, i can't give you exact figures now, but what is certain is that apart from the price, the last solution is that the honorable government has solutions, doesn't it? that's right , i wanted to see the final price refineries, how much do you, as the general secretary of the association, have a final price , let friends of refining and distribution announce this, in fact, you are now producing gasoline, for example, you don't know how much it costs. now, if we adjust the oil, i want it to be accurate, i can't, we can't do it. well, very well, mr. rafi

. it is finished, for example , we have seen the price of its extraction in the thousands, for example, on social networks, which mention different prices, which are now, for example, 10,12,000 tomans, for example. they say that i am higher, for example, they say that you should see what your number is, the reason why you saw different numbers is because there are different calculation methods and different parameters. when crude oil is taken from the oil field, it is a cost of the investment of the oil field, you should see that it is included in it. or it is not included, then there is the cost of transporting oil through the pipeline to the oil refinery, then there is the cost of the refinery itself, that is, the overhead costs of consumption and the catalyst, and finally, a reasonable profit should be made by the refinery itself. again, the cost of transporting the product through the pipeline or tanker to oil storage

there is, and then i am. retail discussions, if we consider these in terms of the return on investment of oil fields and the return on investment of our oil refineries, a figure of approximately 11,000 or 19,000 tomans is the total price of each liter of gasoline for there is a country without the intrinsic value of crude oil, that is, if you adjust the oil from it, it means that if we actually give crude oil to the people for free, we are just telling the people, sir, we have that crude oil from underground, after all, those are the operating costs of oil extraction crude transportation crude oil refining crude oil, the distribution of that food, the fee for the location of these, if we collect them from the people , it is about 12 thousand tomans, if we consider the return on investment of oil fields and crude oil refineries , for example, 45 years have passed since the oil fields, for example, this return on investment for example, some

experts say