even though we can reach the growth of 88 , today we want to talk about it with the experts of this program. if you are interested in this discussion , please stay with us until the end. you are with the economy desk. i told you that the statistics show that our economic growth has increased compared to the same period last year, that is, if we want to look at the first 3 months of this year, but if we want to look at the longer term, we should look at the last 10 years. if we look at the year 90-91, for example, we see that there has been growth in many years we did not have a very positive economy. sometimes, in one or two years, for example, because of the jcpoa, our economic growth increased, for example , we had oil sales up to 9%, but after that, it decreased again

. it has been positive, but there is a point that we are talking about now . first, our economic growth has been negative in our agricultural sector. we also want to talk about productivity in today's program. to be able to advance productivity to sustainable economic growth let's check the point that if you look at the statistics in the past few years, our economic growth or productivity growth has never been continuous. either our economic growth has been very high, it has gone up, it has been sinusoidal, or it has come down a lot and the situation is not very good . in the past few years, the growth of our service sector has been good. in the past one or two years, this has been a bit more negative, but in general, the statistics that i have presented to you this indicates that the experts, some of them believe that the variables that have been put in the seventh program, for example, before the program we were talking about, i don't know the growth of my attendance you don't want 10-12% liquidity and single-digit inflation growth, even though we want to grow . let's reach an 8% economy, but

other variables are also being talked about these days . the various imbalances that exist must be resolved, or we should resolve them first, then we should achieve growth, or let's go for growth first, and they will resolve themselves. i prepared the report of my colleague in the macroeconomics department of the broadcasting news agency. with this introduction, i told you that we should agree to see the report together. we will come back and introduce the guest to you and we will start our conversation. the basis of the 7th plan of economic growth over the years in the field of industry, in the field of mining, in the field of agriculture, in the field of pishran azizan projects, the unification commission , to complete this by looking at the removal of obstacles to the commission , looking at the government bill and the supreme council of statistics in 2017 , the official reference announcing macroeconomic statistics, including growth. ekhmani has been introduced by the

iranian statistics center as the official authority of all the official statistics of the country. the latest report of the statistics center shows that the economic growth of this spring, including oil, has reached 46%, which has increased by 3% compared to the spring of last year. it has reached 8 percent, which has increased by one and a half points compared to last spring. in the same period, the growth of the agricultural sector is 2%, while the industry and mines are 5%. and the service group was 3 and one tenth percent. therefore, the growth of agriculture, industry and mines has increased compared to spring last year, and only the growth rate of the service sector has increased from 3.7% to 3.1%. in the industry and mining group, in the first 3 months of the year , the field of oil and natural gas extraction

experienced the highest growth with a rate of ten and two tenths of percent. the rate of fixed capital formation represents the amount of money used to procure the factors of production that according to the report of the statistics center, in the first 3 months of the year, this rate reached 3.6 percent and decreased by 1.7 tenths of a point compared to the spring of last year. fatemeh khan ahmadi of sed and broadcasting news agency. we saw and heard the report of my colleague. here in the studio of the economy table , mr. siami, the director general of the future research office of the ministry of economy, is present. also, mr. shakri, an economic expert, is also present in our other studio. to all the guests of the program, i want to start with mr. shakri and the question that mr. shakri is the same in the first month of the year , how do you evaluate the growth that we have both in the report and in the introduction, how far do you see it? very cause

i want to say one thing as an introduction , and that is that basically, if our people look at the conditions in which we live, it seems that it has been turned upside down for a few years . it is a set of programs that have been created for our region. one of these programs is the establishment of a corridor named imac corridor in the south. the persian gulf whose function is to develop the south of the persian gulf at the cost of destroying the economy and the lack of development in the north of the persian gulf, in the order of syria, in the order of iraq, in the order of lebanon , and in fact, at this moment when we are talking , development is

being used as a weapon against us. this issue has nothing to do with our religious issues. geography has ruled that we have been written with our spouses, so regardless of what happens today, in the end, the weapon that we have to respond with is development, and there is no escape from this issue , there is no easy way, and knowing the conditions we are living in, i say that we have no way to get out of it except development we are talking about development and we are talking about underdevelopment. our first issue among the statistics that was announced is this quarterly statistic, something that will show us a future, the issue of the ratio of investment to the total gp. that is, it is correct to assume that we may have added a part to it that has improved compared to the previous year, or the like, or even that the formation of fixed capital has become positive after being negative for several years, but we must remember that the formation of fixed capital is growing compared to the period.

it is determined before the formation of fixed capital, so if you have a very small absolute number in a period maybe with a little increase you will see big growths without anything really happening to your face. the thing that really tells you what's going on is the ratio of investment in jedi during all the recent years, the ratio of investment in jedi has been decreasing at a significant speed, that is, despite the fact that in the 3 years of shahid raisi's tenure, the formation of fixed capital has been positive. but at the same time , almost every year, on average, 1% compared to ibgp has actually fallen, this is a very high problem , so we are facing the question of development, and we must remember that in a country like ours, the development sector means economic growth, because any definition of development necessarily includes economic growth, and for a country with our characteristics, productivity basically cannot carry enough burden for development

. rather, i said about all other countries, the same trend is there, that is, the ratio of ib to peshon , here is the period when large-scale investments by global investors of western countries are made only in countries with which they are considered friends, and this friendship is not an ideological issue, it is an issue. geographically, we cannot change it let's change the geography in general, this is the truth

. now, in front of such a truth, the first issue is realism. yes, as you said in the seventh plan, it is mentioned that the growth of 88, the growth of liquidity in the last 13 years of the plan and the single-digit inflation of these three, in terms of macroeconomics it's impossible. first , let's accept that it's impossible. now we can go a little further and talk about more real things . you see the most important way to achieve economic growth and enter from the entrance of development and investment, compared to coming first. natrazia, the question of unsatisfied will be solved in development, no that they can be answered independently and then we can say what to do now for growth. thank you mr. siami. regarding the economic growth trend , how much do you agree with mr. shakri that entering the country's development space from the growth side, if we want to reach 8% growth or higher growth numbers, we must enter from the development side, rather than wanting to solve the imbalances we have in the economy first. let's do it in the name of allah,

the most merciful, the most merciful. i offer my greetings to you and the esteemed viewers, and also offer my condolences for the recent events that have happened. see the development process of the country. which is tied to the most important economic variable it is economic growth, and in fact it forms the real part of the macroeconomics, just as it is targeted, and the most important factor that can help this growth in 88 is the discussion of investment, and next to it, there is the discussion of financing. in the 7th development plan , the government and in particular the ministry of economy, finance and the central bank are obliged to plan the next year's financing plan to achieve 8 % economic growth. of this amount, two and a half

percent should be provided through productivity growth plan for this issue so that they can achieve this. well, mr. dr. shakri said that the ratio of investment to production in iran's economy has decreased. yes, investment to gdp has decreased and in the international literature to achieve economic growth. high and continuous growth, which is stated in this literature as 7% growth , international institutions need to reach 30 % of the investment to our gdp. it fluctuates in different years, although in the year the recent ones because. the growth of the investment growth that happened, we were able to improve this ratio

, but the important thing that exists in investment is net investment, we are not talking about gross investment here, it means net investment that leads to the formation of capital in the economy and this capital formation will help to achieve 8% economic growth . unfortunately, in the past years, investment in the country has been such that it has not been able to increase our capital balance, that is, investment has been such that it only covers depreciation. there is a need for us to look at the investment article in a special way. in the fifth and sixth development plans , we discuss investment and the financing of this investment is mentioned in the sixth plan. obviously , we had a financing table to achieve the economic growth of 88. in those different parts of the system. the country had determined what their duties would be, well, according to the conditions that

arose in the macro economy, including corona and sanctions discussions , maybe we could not achieve the goals of that table, but in terms of the structure of our movement, the structure of our movement is based on the plan. although the sixth development has been that we could not achieve in the 7th development plan, in fact, the 7th progress, in fact, the target set for the banking system of the head market. the production of government assets and foreign investment has been stated in reality, but no numerical task has been seen for it . this task has been entrusted to the ministry of economy and the central bank, which can be carried out according to the macroeconomic conditions and target setting for the next year. to announce those two numbers and do it, thank you for the details . we will reach the task of the ministry of economy, mr mahmoudi is also on the line, that is,

mr. mahmoudi is present in the other studio of the economics desk, mr. mahmoudi, please ask mr. siami to point out that a part of the task that has been seen for this 8% growth is on the shoulders of productivity, please tell me how this will be achieved. it is important to point out that if we only want to give priority to profit, we cannot witness that we will reach that growth of 88%. you play a role in being able to help bring productivity along with the development process that was mentioned and be placed next to this category and we will reach that growth. 8 the percentage we are talking about, in the name of allah , the most merciful, the most merciful, alhamdulillah, the lord of the worlds , i offer my greetings to your honorable colleagues, dear guests, and respected viewers . . and

i wish for the victory and continuation of the victories of the islamic front. the points that my friends have said can be discussed in their own place. i would like to point out only one point first, and that is that the general policies for the 7th plan of maqam the supreme leader announced the first paragraph in 1401 if please be careful to point out that the general and main goal of the program, i.e. all the provisions prepared and formulated in the 7th plan, in fact , pursues the goal of ensuring the growth of 88 for the entire economy, emphasizing on the productivity of it as well. in fact, human capital is the capital of management and technology. well, therefore, the specific task is, if the esteemed viewers are asking , economic growth is basically provided from two main and general sources, or should we achieve economic growth by investing in inputs? such as human capital or physical capital or whatever

through productivity means that system of planning and actually division. which exists now is not very clear and clear and it is necessary in the first year of the government, considering that in the 14th government, the honorable president said that the general goal of the government is that the main goal is to bring the seventh plan to a conclusion, some of these discussions let's follow the coordination and resolve the ambiguities with more seriousness. the villages that you mentioned at the beginning of the discussion have existed in

different periods and in long-term periods, which indicates that the structure of our economy is not really dependent on the growth of vohra, unfortunately, and these villages too. that it happens in different periods due to external factors that happen, sometimes positive, sometimes negative , and well, it can't be analyzed very well , it is the result of certain actions, so the forecast we made in the organization and now we are coordinating with the organization of the country's budget plan. it is that, in fact , we can use those structures and those governance systems that are in our power to internalize those external factors in the institution in charge of these , and in fact, we can use our own internal capacities that exist, so that in fact the resources let's allocate in such a way that the parts that we can

give priority to those who create the greatest possibility and the greatest capacity for growth. unfortunately, studies show that the opposite is happening . they are higher towards the sectors that have lower productivity , or in the field of systems, tell us that education or the field of health is of the desired quality and the desired output is not provided in order to provide the required resources. in fact, there is no coordination in the government complex. it must be established in the first year of the notification of the program it should be created so that we can actually use all the measures that have been seen in the program, god willing. i will get back to you regarding the details of how this coordination should be done . regardless of the contradictions that we mentioned, some experts say that there are in the program, in any case , we should enter from the entry of development, not from the entry

of resolving disagreements. how to realize this development so that we can let's witness that investment , we want to correct that ratio, what are the requirements, and now that it is the beginning of the charadam government's work and the beginning of the program, what should be done in practice that can be realized, not just talked about and put on paper. what should be done to realize the development you are referring to? the most important meaning of having a development plan is that you know which good things you don't want to do, so you have to have a central idea. based on that central idea, tell me which parts i want to ride in the center of a paragraph, the government says what i want to do and what i will not do in these 4 years, according to its meaning, it is clear that we should not do many things

. mr. rouhani, for his first 2 years, since then , until now, iran's governments have lacked a central idea. and if the governments want the central idea to be theirs, they bring it with them before the elections . they cannot boil something from their own hearts from the elections. i know what you mean by the central idea. now i will give an example. the idea that i am saying is, for example, an example of the central idea that was raised at the undergraduate level . i have no other answer to my question. i have to invest part of my agriculture in order to answer the question of water . i will have a significant proportion of the freed labor force, so i need a series of user industries . i will give another paragraph or example, in the third construction plan, they say , well, in 39/38, we faced a horizontal crisis, now

what should we do, what caused this horizontal crisis, for example this and this, we are focused on this and nothing else . basically, we are not at the point where you can move towards the implementation of comprehensive development plans. the 7th plan cannot be the central idea, no, not you . the 7th plan has no idea at all. there is a forest of contradictory goals that you must have a plan to implement in order to implement the 7th plan. for example, the 7th plan has two completely separate parts in its banking sector . we are talking about financing and another part is about the fact that you are a management company have big assets so that he comes to the assets the bad fact is to deduct a share from the banks, and the other half of it is about having a settlement process and being able to liquidate the next banks . at all, you can't identify an asset without taking over the banks and doing an iva on it. now, if you want to buy with a discount, then you must

have a plan to implement this clause. you must choose which side you want. now, in your opinion, the government should choose. what is the first thing? the first idea is that the 14th government has announced that my goal is to implement the 7th plan. it is a main clause. in terms of economics, this is a decision. the first step is a political decision. i can't make it. that means you have to make a decision. for example, if it were me , my suggestion would be to say that i want to focus on the export industries of the user. there is a limit to the account that does not include the whole country, so i shouldn't choose some places. now we want to provide this . in order to go one step further in my idea , we want to talk about its financing. iran is a country whose financing is completely bank-oriented. not from a bank-oriented model to a market-oriented one a kabeh can be done, not with a piece of magic stick , so this model is for us to sit down and make a division, say that this is your share, this is your share , this is your share, this is clear

, we have experienced this many times, we don't need to talk about it again. last year, we correctly controlled some liquidity , we had no partial solution, we came to increase the total liquidity, or we set a target, we limited the banks' expenses, and the plan worked . it is significant to target a cash flow from one numbers lower than that inflation, much lower than that inflation , will not help to reduce your inflation from somewhere, for example, you had a relatively stable inflation last year, you also had a stable width . it has not decreased. it is very sticky . it has shown you a decrease. when you go and look at it , you can see that different sectors are different from each other. the inflation of the commodity sector has decreased rapidly . if last year's inflation only included goods, that means we did not have another sector. inflation was 18

it was as long-term as inflation, but all goods and people for example, in the service sector or for example rent, in particular , the number and growth was very high, it has kept up , so you have inflation here, inflation caused by the shock of events on the supply side. it is the right thing to do, when your concern about inflation rises, you must do something on the demand side so that the expectation of inflation does not get worse than a certain level . when you inevitably come to the field of balance control, a credit guide forced to see when you look at the counter from the moment of its implementation, in fact. the large customers of the banks and the large debtors of the banks have suddenly increased. it is also normal. this is what we expected. so you had to carry out a credit management. if you had a plan, in the heart of this

growth rationing that you did for the balance sheets of the banks, you are on a specific plan. you would also ride and finance it. the question of financing growth in a sector that is not horizontal has been answered. i emphasize that i do not mean that the first question is growth. don't have money or i think if you sprinkle money, growth is born, in any case , i am here talking about money as an institution for coordination along the chain, not an institution that if you do more, development will increase or the economy will grow, so this is what i am saying. completely with today's literature in iran , which says that first, i should somehow control the inflation by stifling the demand side, stabilize the conditions, it will fix itself, no, it will fix itself, there is no such thing, there is no such thing at all, so now suppose i put this on the table first. what does the man's government say? suppose, for example, 2000

it has a new capacity of billion tomans. you are suggesting to me that we should do this , what will be spent now, and since there is no plan on the table , usually the worst plan will be the priority, for example , the national housing loan, the national housing loan, as something that does not have fs, it is not reasonable to finance it at all. it won't end. well, it's obvious that this is politically more difficult, and a reasonable plan that will help balance payments, etc., will never come to the table, so we'll go back to the question of ideas. we come back to the question of limiting the areas we want to invest in let's do it, and then the type of question will be different from asking all the presidential candidates to sit together and say who is the best to implement the law of the 7th plan. thank you mr. siami , mr. shakri. and we want you to give an explanation about it. this part of financing has not been seen very well. it is divided into two parts. basically, if

we reach this growth and development, then a large part of financing must be improved, but in their opinion, this is very much the case, considering what it doesn't happen well on paper. you can tell me why this is by the way, according to what is more correct and correct now and helps us to have continuous positive economic growth, how will it be? well, in addition to the seventh plan, we also have a law on financing production and construction, which was promulgated this year in may 1403. first of all, let me ask him whether you basically accept this criticism or not. look, in terms of expertise, mr. shakri's opinion is correct, but in terms of the government's missions, we are obliged to do the law in the best interest, and achieving 8% economic growth is the first priority. there is a government. he is

the law enforcer of the seventh plan of our own development and effort from this point of view, we will do it according to the tools that have been seen in the program, yes, it is true, maybe some of the numbers that came in the 7th program are a little weak in the communication of the macroeconomic sectors and it is not possible to reach all of them, or the economic trends of iran have this experience. he has not shown us that we can be in the long run. 5 years to achieve single-digit inflation, liquidity growth of 13%, 12% and economic growth of 8%, but after all , it is a task given to us by the law, we are trying to achieve this, and there are legal tools that i have presented to you. has to be able to use it effectively and

to answer those political questions that arise in the context of our choices in investments. which will help the investment of the country. now, this point that was brought up, you say, in terms of expertise , the connections above have not been seen very well in terms of macro-economic variables, and the economic connections that exist, we are now talking about the financing issue that we have. commonly, the honorable bino is that it should be reformed and it will help us grow and develop, especially in the 14th government, so that we can reach all of them. what will be the points that have been said with the correct financing variable of the program of the ministry of economy, see the program that mr. rosh has put special emphasis on is using the capacities of the capital market , which must first return that trust to this market and that we have plans let's consider that these plans, in addition to having a high yield, can also have benefits for the economy , that is, the plan of the ministry of economy is to shift financing from the bank to financing from the market.

if there is going to be credit direction , this credit direction is from the current liquidity because when we are closing the liquidity to a very low number, we are probably no longer connected to the banking system and the central bank network to be able to finance our plans, so we need to move from the banking system to the capital market and be able to get capital. but here is a point. what projects are funds attracted to? to projects that have a high economic range and people are sure that this project can have a suitable id for them after two or three years. if it is supposed that we want the designs to be ordered let's be clear, investors are definitely not moving in this direction, and the investment we are considering, which is not possible for 8% economic growth, is this.