u.s. farm report.> welcome to u.s. farm report. i'm tyne morgan, and here's what we're working on for you. usda hits the market with the quarterly grain stox report. traders expected the largest september corn stocks in a decade. we'll see if their projectiosn held true. donald trump's ag advisor or rancher at the helm of epa. as presidential hopefuls go head to head, trade gets caught in the middle. why's it so vital? we have ample quality supply, we don't have the demand we need.> that's our farm journal report. and in john's world....

his week, usda hitting us with the quarterly grain stox report friday, with the trade expecting the largest september corn stocks number in a decade. corn stocks as of september first coming in slightly higher than last year, at 1 point 74 billion bushels, slightly below that average trade guess, but up from this time last year. soyebans totaling 197 million bushels, also below what trade was expecting. but that number is 3 percent higher from last september. but look at those wheat stocks, 2.53 billion bushels. up 21 percent from a year ago. the report also showing on farm corn stocks are up from last year, while soybeans stored on the farm are down 16 from a year ago. mexico, the number 2 buyer of u-s corn, annoucning this week one of the fourth largest daily purchase of u-s corn since hte 70s. teh total-- more than one point 5 (1,577,340 mt) million metric tons. that's 62 million bushels. of that 1 point 5 million, one

year and another half a million (541,020 mt) in the 17-18 year. china is slapping an anti-subsidy duty to imports of u-s dried distillers grains. the country issuing a final ruling this week, claiming u-s dried distiller's grains are being unfairly subsidized by the u-s government, saying it's damaging china's ddg industry. the news came just weeks after the u-s filed a complaint with the world trade organization, accusing china of illegal government subsidies for rice, wheat and corn. head this week, one of canada's largest feedlots is closing its gates. [take: full screen still canada... with a dot for western feedlots, ltd number: (location is strathmore, alberta, canada incue: western feedlots, ltd shutting down outcue: - 100,000 head capacity] [notes:- blaming market conditions, political environment alberta based western feedlots says it will close it's

environment. an alberta cattle feeding copmany says more cattle feeders will close in the next 6 months, which means more cattle could flood the u-s fedyards. the overload of milk on the world market could be getting better. a new report from the e-u shows milk production fell for a second straight month in july. the latest e-u milk market observatory shows production dipping nearly one and a half percent. that follows june drop of more than 2 percent. this was the scene in cedar, falls iowa last week, as farmers with harvest-ready crops play the waiting game to get back in the field. usda's latest crop progress report showing harvest in the hardest hit areas fallign behind. .iowa corn harvest is just 4 percent...seven points behind average. minnesota is three percent....six points behind. national, 15 percent of the crop is out of the field, heavy rains. 11 percent of the cotton crop is harvested there, falling 4 points behind. but nationally, cotton harvest is right on track with average. hose are the headlines...meteorologist mike hoffman joins us now with weather. mike, heavy rains in texas last week, as well as the northern corn belt. how does next week look for precip? tyne it looks like another slow moving storm system for the upper midwest and we'll have to watch a potential tropical system off the east coasts, but in the meantime there's a

parts of the northeast and just west of the black hills area besides california they've been in a drought unfortunateily for a long period of time let's go back one month and you can see how things have changed not a whole lot most of the areas that were dry and stay dry most of the areas doing okay, stayed okay state okay although summer is obviously were on the wet side like we talked about parts of wisconsin in minnesota so let's go day by day this week a stationary front in florida still some spotty showers and thunderstorms on monday that orm system that was over the eastern corn belt most of last week finally a slowly getting out of here into the eastern great lakes even see another storm system coming in out west this year be the big weather maker for the middle of the country as we had through wednesday you can see that already are producing some widespread rains in parts of the central and eastern rockies all the way up in the southern canada scattered showers and thunderstorms south and from

along the east coast i'm just showing it as an area of low pressure because i don't want all our people pay attention to it if you live in the mid atlantic states of the northeast other than at the big storm and now over the western great lakes with some showers back that way thunderstorms into the southeast and another storm system coming into the pacific northwest we'll be back in our next half hour with a longer range forecast thnaks, mike. well, the quarterly grain stocks report just released friday. we'll break it down with chip

welcome back to u s farm report on the marketing round table with me this week bryan dohtery of stewart peterson and chipo nellinger of blue reef agrimarketing friday usda had their latest quarterly grain stocks report this review the numbers real quick corn stocks up slightly from last year ssoybean stocks up three percent a week up one e

est one we need to swallow that it's a but it's not a surprise. we've known that hte wheat stock numbers big. that was hard hard pill to swallow though because we just can't get any help for the for the wheat market and and a longer term that might hold the corn market back a little bit too but yeah, i thought corn and beans were right in line enough to go back in compare him to fourteen sixteen months ago in a billion seven three on on corn ending stocks for old crop what was a hundred ninety seven million on beans, you know, at oneone point we were fearing four hundred million bushel bean carryout and over a two billion bushel corn her out so the demand's there were using a lot of bushels. yeah and initially it was not a bearish reaction from from trade we're actually trading up right after the report sure the numbers are basically old news, they were as expected no big changes but the here's interesting less hot factoid usage in august and june

we eat so what it is it's a sign that low prices are curing all prices in fact soybean usage is up fifty five percent so that's a reflection of problems in the southern hemisphere with crops but also good demand in exports and soul that old carry out number becomes carry in number tightens things up a little bit especially corn beans that feed and residual use number in that grain stacks reports on the head of the report i thought maybe usda was too aggressive on that number it was not attainable but what to this report show us with that yes sure on old crop that they were pretty well right right in line and there was there was no big shock i think the market you know with a little slump in corn prices ahead of the report was maybe fearing that a little bit but you know with the number be in where came out right in line with expectations think the usda was was right on i think it'll be a lot of debate going forward for several more months on whether their new crop corn feed

that we have but from old crop perspective i think it looks like they're right on line do you think the usda could be even more aggressive with their with their number considering our our large herds have i think you will go in the slaughter numbers you see big numbers there and they're eating something and corn especially the commodityof choice, so when i see these feed numbers i'm not surprised i wouldn't necessarily expect that the usda raise the numbers but i think they got it right this time and when you look at that that where we're at right now lull prices are curing low prices were cheap in value and you're gonna see good demand out of that. this. yeah, that's promising i'm looking at the on off farm stocks in this report is showing us that we have lower soybean stocks higher for stocks than a year ago not a big shocker there either right because we know that that some of our our viewers sold when prices were good in the soybean market and that's historically what you see too and i think you'll see that this fall too from a new crop perspective. there's good carry in the corn

farming and at the elevator and they sell their beans on the field and that's the case this year there's good carry in the corn market pretty relatively strong basis for beans and no carry in the bean market and and strong yield so i think you'll see that trend continue with selling beans and store in corn speaking of yields we're hearing some amazing sleeping yield each week i am just amazed at some these reports are coming out corn a mixed bag so what are you thinking as far as yield goes at this point. let's look in it in beans now that it's hard to august and then look it was sandra september weather wise plant growth everything that you put in the crop ratings the potentials there and so the key then is getting the feedback numbers from farmers and they've been good they have been as expected or better than expected across the board we talk to producers corn on the other hand this is an ironic story had everything going for but it seems to be a crap that's really

to hear anywhere from ten to twenty bushels less than expected they tell us it's not two thousand fourteen and so when we see an increase in acreage like we saw this year at seventy four yield we don't buy in our number suggests some were in the mid sixty one sixties to low one seventies really, you bet, so if we could see this corn yield drop in the swimming you're probably going to go higher do you think we put our heart is low in on either of these crops to yeh, i think you you have are in corn and that just looking at the long term historic seasonal tendency whether you slice that by five year, or ten year year thirty year when you turn the calendar to october a particularly once you get past the first week in october historically you've seen your harvest low in corn so i think i agree with and i agree with that with brian looks to me like the usda could stand to cut corn yields going forward maybe not dramatically but too slowly but surely, so yeah, i think

stocks what we think about acreage next year i know it's kind of early but were actually going to hit on that when we come back on u s farm report

so it looks like there will be lower wheat acres, i think especially the weather of fall the way it is, if guys can get the double corp in that's that's another

question but i think it's more financial issue if we don't get the midwest not miss and the west for the south the midwest i know the plains have to point with him that's pretty much some of their only option out on some of those areas so realistically how much could we see wheat acres drop or there could easily be a million and a half acres total and i think going back to what would bryan said earlier you know the old saying is a cure for low prices low prices so as prices go lower the increased demand and that has to be part of the function is you you take out some of the more marginal acreage and so that to me means we could lose in corn acres is well and i agree totally that i think you know as you look it and talk to bankers, there's a lot of concern about working capital shrinking on balance sheet of farmers and you know i thought it would happen a little bit last year but i really think the rubber will meet the road this year in and the banker may force some of

folks say was that we can afford a hiccupa production hiccup anywhere south america if you're anywhere or else we're going to see prices shoot higher looking at these stocks is that still still the case i am going to paint a fairly friendly picture for grains right now on the doldrums and get the crops it's harvest but when you look at corn we were talking in two couple months ago now it's two point three a few comes down from one seventy four let's say down the one seventy that takes our stocks to stocks usaage to levels that would equate to corn prices rallying and were four dollars in july or higher so that stock numbe that trend to stock that trimmed the staff will continue to trend in words we believe on our yield s models that we published that the production numbers probably

years july corn futures have rallied at a minimum of two four thirty five after january first so with that ten years of history that say once we get through this harvest season be a little more optimistic than what we're seeing right now do you buy that yeah i think that's right in line i don't disagree at all what see what the final january crop report says and more importantly if the u s da is on trend for lower corn yields on the october report i agree totally and i think safe assumption that the demand from china is going to continue to be as good as it has been the last couple years yes any little hiccup we just can't sustain that any little weather problem in south america during our winter you could easily get back in with a

maintaining or increasing the size of corp, they're going to be some consequences and that's higher prices and rations spaking of production and demand, world dairy expo next week in wisconsin next week in wisconsin europe says they're slow in milk production so it looks like possibly maybe is this a massive amount of dairy that we have in the world market maybe that could be easy but is that going to impact prices all you know, cow slaughter for dairy producers it's an inning that sixt to 8 percent here this summer higher prices in mid summer kept production active here in the u s so you know if europe decreases some we've got a production here issue here in the u s yet. alright, we'll be righ tback with closing thoughts

come back on u s farm report welcome back to us farmer for closing thoughts chip nellinger we'll start with youyeah, i think brian i both agree that

even though its busy right now we still have the plan that out what are you gonna do when prices rally how are you get a merchandise that are going to take account of of a basis in and spreads so now even though its busy with harvest, is the time to be planning what we're gonna do with the rest of our old crop in the new crop as wellall right brianwell it's an election year obama ran on hope and change i'm going to run this year on hope and balance and what i mean by that is we've got in place or that are in place are going impact price and so the idea of higher prices extending beyond four dollars in corn and beyond ten or eleven dollars in beans is unlikely but when they get to those levels you're going to get a little more bullish make sure that you market their grain utilize your options strategies but be balanced in your property you don't get caught like the last two years in prices when prices tipped over, it was devastating how quick they went down good

tantly chanign, it's important to know where current prices stand. get market price sdelivered right to you mobile phone. just texat

we already mentioned iowa's deluge of rain last week. it sparked john's commentary this week. as you can see, we are adding more drainage to our farm. my experience on our heavy soils is drainage pays back in a big way, but not all that fast. just like most of my career was dependent on drainage installed over a century ago, somebody decades from now will benefit from this work. the recent downpours in iowa reinforce my

a disproportionately large negative impact. the problem is the considerable initial cost. with returns to farmland dropping as commodity prices plummet, fewer owners and operators will be able to make this type of investment. that said, i don't think there has been a moment in my career when any needed investment looked like a bargain. there is another issue as well. system drainage like we're installing changes how our farm adds to nutrient runoff. environmentally, it works both ways. well drained soil can absorb and more slowly release runoff water after a big rain by acting more like a sponge than a parking lot. our hope is we will decrease our soil losses this way, which in turn directly determines the amount of phosphate that leaves

farm more sensitive to nitrogen runoff if the timing and nature of application is not managed well. long-standing ponds in fields may be a detrimental to yields but they do act as mini-wetlands to delay and decrease the nitrogen entering watersheds. there is research underway to try to balance these two objectives. cultural practices like cover crops and split applications seem to help but don't currently look like the whole answer. if i had to guess, i would say aaron may be working with neighbors to create man-made wetlands at our tile outlets in the future in order to preserve downstream water quality. with larger and more frequent rain events, drainage

the same time, we cannot ignore our obligations to those downstream. thanks, john. we've all heard where trump stands on immigration and trade. but what about other key issues in ag,

from the studios of farm journal broadcast, this is u.s. farm report. welcome back to u-s farm report. we have much more ahead this weekend. agriculture is making their case for why trade talk needs action. it's a battle made famous by a popular song in the 1950s. and could autonomous equipment cause the fall of family farms? that's customer support. now for the headlines, 2016 net farm income could top what illinois farmers saw in 2015. the university of illinois rleasing their updated 2016 outlook this week. economists say considering the record-setting yields many are seeing, that could lead to higher soybean returns. and when you take into consideration that non land costs and cash rents have fallen, the econmists think the higher soybean returns could

s suggest very low returns and net incomes in 2017. iowa farmland values are on the decline. a new survey from the iowa chapter of realtors land institute showing the average price per acre in the state is around 6 thousand 486 dollars. that's an 8 point 7 percent drop from september of last year, and a 25 percent decline from the peak in 2013. landowner editor mike walsten expects that rapid decline in iowa to slow this year. walsten says it could be another year before the eastern cornbelt land values find a floor. the first presidential debate took place this weekend. other than immigration and trade, ag didn't

donald trump's ag advisor sam clovis. host mike adams pressed clovis on immigration reform, saying some estimates point to 50 percent of ag's workforce being here illegally. clovis defended trump's stance on immigration, saying there can be no exceptions. < we will work with famrer sand rancehrs to make sure we have hte best possible process in place that satisfies both the notion of having a useable and workable workforce in this country, at rule of law in this country> and on the topic of epa overreach, clovis says the trump campaign plans to appoint a farmer or rancher as head of hte environmental protection agency. and from day 1, each government agency will take a look at the rules written in the last 5 years, immediately eliminating 20 percent of those. more than half a million farmers can now join the lawsuit against syngenta after a kansas federal

move forward. the plaintiffs allege syngenta prematurely sold its agrisure viptera and duracade corn products leading china to stop importing the corn. which in turn caused prices to dip. the first case could make it before a judge in june of 2017. that's it for news...meteorologist mike hoffman joins us again, this week with his 90 day. mike, how's moisture looking. thanks, tyne, as you'll see in my outlook for the next ninety days some northern areas i'm still expecting above normal precipitation southern sections as far as the jet stream that slow moving storm system still in the eastern great lakes and finally gets completely out of here by wednesday as a ridge builds into the northeast look at that, another cut off coming into the southwestern plains south eastern rockies and as we head through the week our model is showing that kind of cutting off into the southern mississippi valley that will be producing a least some shower activity down

ennessee a zonal flow was ripples through it as we head into sunday now let's go ninety days or months by month october temperatures above normal in much of the country southern plains near normal november much of the country as well with the northern and central plains near normal then onto december looks like old a rare start to come into the northern plains and the great lakes, as far as precipitation is concerned around the great lakes and the pacific northwest expected to be above normal over the next ninety days time thanks, mike. the leading presidential candidates have made one thing clear-- they aren't in favor of trade deals like the trans pacific partnership. this week, sam clovis told mike adams that tpp isn't transparent, and flooded with labor issues, not to mention problems with wto compliance. but as i explain in this farm journal report, that's not the popular opinion from agriculture. as the two presidential hopefuls went head to head in their first debate,

it was negotiated, which i was not responsible for i concluded it wasn't. i wrote about it about that i my book. is it president obama's fault, becaues he's pushing it while views differ on the campaign trail, to many in agriculture, trade is a main lifeline for agricultural goods. and as more products are shipped, american farm bureau says it's haing a direct inpmact on the u-s economy. today, trade may be a buzzword, but for corn growers, it's something they would like to see grow. [

net farm income in the united staes each year. nigh says while the agreement involves 11 other countries, there's one that stands out hte most.

supply, we have ample quality supply, we don't have the demand we need. and that's hurting us> today, mexico and central america are the top buyers uf u-s rice. sullivan says if china would start buying, that would be a gamechanger. it's more than just rice looking to china to pick up demand.

the destination, many ag groups say we need to grow demand < our domestic consumption is strong but virtually flat. even if our consumers were to consume 2 more pounds of pork product a year. that would not compensate for the amount of pork we will have on the market. < at one time we were growing exports by 10 or 20 percent some years. that just isn't happening anymore. > but not everyone in agriculture is a exporting any sugar. so for us, we would just assume temper all of these agreemtns and if youw ant to trade somehting with someone lse that's fine, but you could leave us out, we'd be happy with that> sugarbeet growers say they aren't against current trade deals, knowing many areas of ag benefit. but when other countries subsidize production, undercutting the u-s price, that's when groups like sugar and rice say some deals

another country is allowed to subsixize and export, we know that's not fair for our growers next week, we'll tackle another issue discussed frequently on the campaign trail nafta. what would life be like without it? we'll have the answer next week. up next, john phipps case ih's new autonomous tractor stole the show at the

farm progress show this year, even causing john to cover it in john's world. and it drew a lot of questions and comments from us tractors started many of you thinking. these thoughts from paul seehaver in virginia: "interesting report on driverless technology - it would seem inevitable yet concerning. it could hasten the demise of the family farm ... picture larger conglomerates that buy or

, and picking - much like a railroad dispatch center - at farms across the nation." thanks for writing - send me an address. this harvest, out on the graincart, i have tried to imagine how this technology could impact our own farm. first, i am always suspicious about predictions of doom for family farms. they seem remarkably adaptable, and i think land ownership patterns override many factors pushing greater consolidation. despite bigger, rather than abruptly disappearing. second, autonomous tractors would seem to be most adaptable to large contiguous tracts of land. remember the video showed a wheat field that appeared to be in the part of the country where farmers talk about quarters rather than acres. but this technology is scale-neutral. there is no reason there could not be 150 horsepower autonomous tractors, especially because of the

units may be pricey, recent history suggests a rapid decline as competition and other innovation comes to bear. there will be a proximity premium, i think. in other words, with autonomous tractors the land right next to your farm becomes even more valuable to rent or own. autonomous tractors could help multi-county operations less than more compact farms. the uneven demand for labor on grain farms is one of the ggest hurdles for smaller operators. just one modestly-sized autonomous tractor could be more of a competitive breakthrough than a threat. this technology looks to me to be size-neutral or even small-farmer friendly if other electronic advances are any guide. thanks john. and don't forget, if you have questions or comments, you can email john or send us a note on facebook or twitter. when we come back, we have the story about a popular hit from the 1950s. american

countryside is nexxt. countryside is nexxt.

countryside is nexxt. countryside is nexxt.

some people claim music has lost its meaning over time. but you can't claim that about a hit from the 1950s. in fact, you can argue it's what made a battle from the 1800s so famous. andrew mccrea tells the story in this week's american countryside. t was december of 1814 and the british were closing in on the city of new orleans, forcing a battle with the young united states. the southern city was a mix of nationalities and loyalties melting pot that might support either nation. that was the challenge facing a now famous general when he arrived to defend the local citizens. andrew jackson gave this impassioned speech on jackson square asking the citizens of new orleans to let go of their cultural differences and to united in a national emergency. and to his surprise and the governors surprise, they did :15) 3:18 on screen:

al historical park and preserve jackson assembled a truly multicultural force. free men of color, made up a third of the city's population and were a vital part of his group, along with those of a variety of other backgrounds. (he reached out to choctaw indians who had fought with him in previous battles during the creek wars and the war of 1812. he reached out to the french and spanish in the city of new orleans and a large irish contingent. and he brought in jean laffite and the barbiary pirates as 1814 turned to 1815, the british assembled south of city, preparing for attack. but if not for a teacher named jimmy driftwood, the average american would perhaps know little about the battle that took place here. in 1936 driftwood wrote a song about the event to help his students learn more about it. johnny horton later recorded it into a hit. "in 1814 we took a little trip, along with colonel jackson, down the mississip." andrew jackson knew the british were on their way north from the gulf of mexico. he picked his spot to make a stand at

spot because it was a narrow spot between the mississippi river right over there and the swamps right over there and he felt if he had this narrow point he could build a rampart and set up a barricade and stop the british right here " we fired our guns and the british kept a-comin' there wasn't nigh as many as there was a while ago we fired once more and they began to runnin' on down the mississippi to the gulf of mexico although the americans were outnumbered two to one, two hours and the young nation won the last major battle of the war of 1812. jimmy horton's song hit number 1 in 1959. the details of the battle, put to music, are still catchy lyrics today. ("the briars and the brambles are really something that factored into the battle when you think about the british coming here they didn't expect the landscape or the wetscape to be like it was yeah they ran through the briers and they ran through the brambles and they ran through the bushes where a

catch 'em on down the mississippi to the gulf of mexico hile it's not the birthplace of the nation it may just be another beginning in the nation's history. (a lot of historians believe this is the birthplace of the american identity, because of the way the american forces came together and defended the city of new orleans although the event of this batthfield is now more than 2 centuries old, it's still aplace america knows, wehter through our generaol or the rmed forcues, it's a battle that still resignates with american's today. travelign the countrysid,e i'm andrew mccrea. thanks, andrew. you can hear

ome back to tractor tales folks! we travel to north central illinois today for a classic red turbo. built in 1966, this wheatland worked most of it's daysin miinestoa but now enjoys a life of just showing off. we farm here in ashkum, me my dad my brother and i always kind of been equipment enthusiasts. my grandpas old tractors just kind of had grown. my grandpas dad was a big international guy we actually have john deere equipment that we farm with but i kind of got into internationals but fifteen years ago and i've got about eight internationals bought it from a gentleman up in minnesota the wheatland tractors aren't really popular in this part of the country and i guess i'm kind of a goof and kinda like some odd stuff for different stuff that people don't always have this a condition i bought it and it was restored in a sometimes we fix some of them up ourselves and sometimes we get lucky and find them the way you want a man of my brothers into oliver's and

r the years but a i i can like the wheatlands and really how can you not like a twelve o six we'll parade them at tractor shows and that type of deal and we had it in a prade just yesterday actually it's a little bit unique for the area being a wheatland and people are pretty impressed with that in a get a lot of thumbs up a tractor shows and that old seventy year old guy in an international hat i get a lot of this and that makes my day makes me think of my grandpa pretty cool. got a ar rims and centers that are grandpa would be fact that it probably should have had wide tires, alot of them would have and i'm probably going to switch them out. yeah i'm pretty partial to the 1206 its just an impressive looking tractor. always wanted one since i was a little kid thanks so much. this week's country church salute goes to the neuburg congreational church in hettinger county, north dakota. it's a very remote church--

abandoned church, on the brink of being burned down. but htey tell us three men tepped up, refurbishing the church, with new paint inside and out and countless repairs. and as you can see, from 2014 to today, the church received quite the facelift. our thanks to veronica klein for sharing their story. as always we want to learn about your home church as well... salutes can be sent to the address on the screen. stay with us - we have harvest photos next as we kick of october this weekend, we have some harvest as we kick of october this weekend, we have some harvest

as we kick of october this weekend, we have some harvest from the farm. jake michael put together this short clip of them harvesting corn the other day. thank goodness for drones-- they produce some of the coolest harvest footage. that is pretty cool. so far, usda showing 15 percent of indiana's corn crop

as well. and tyne, what a great sunset shot from kirby lichte of lexington, missouri. she tells us they actually wrapped up corn harvest this week and should start on soybeans soon. yields have been great this year, and harvest weather is cooperating. some early season showers had area farmers nervous, but she says since then, mother nature has coopearted, allowing them to get the crop out on time. and in south dakota nd north dakota, duwayne bosse, an analyst that have fequestnly have on our show, he says soy yields his area are amazing. i mean we're talking 10 to 15 bushels beter than average on soyebans so he is counting his blessings. when you look at the drought mointor and corp moisture, it looked prety good most of the yar acrost he corn belt and some of those areas up north did get to omuch rain, i know they others are defintely coutning

rm report, thanks so much for watching, be sure to join us right here again next week, as we work to build on our tradition. have a great weekend, everyone. high strength steel for high strength durability,

back to normal after a this week's flooding. today traffic comes back to downtown. the city wants everyone with sandbags to return them starting later this morning. and the celebrations were about more than just football at last night's game in lisbon. you're watching kcrg-tv9. now, from your 24 hour news saturday morning news. good morning and thanks for joining us. we begin with meteorologis t britley ritz. a stubborn low pressure system sits to our east and continues to spin, giving us the mostly cloudy skies and annoying sprinkles every so often throughout the morning. temperatures will be in the 50s to start, but will only warm