ast, this is u.s. farm report.> welcome to u-s farm report this weekend. i'm tyne morgan. we have a packed show over the ext 60 minutes. the u-s dollar hitting a 13 year high, and it's weighing on commodities. pressure on pork producers... < the industy is looking into a loss at approximately 40 dollars per head> could we see a repeat of 1998? that's our farm journal report. if you're in the market to buy, now could be the time... we're on the road with machinery pete. and in john's world.. the soda tax. is it a good idea or not.

week, the u-s dollar hitting a 13 year high as the market digests what president elect donald trump's fiscal policies could mean for the economy. the u-s dollar taking out the december 2015 high this week. that strength acting as a wet blanket on ag commodities, weighing heavily on prices this week. our partners are profarmer break it down. grete says the strength of the dollar poses the largest risk on the wheat market, and then corn and cotton. dow jones inudstrial hitting a new high this week, after seven straight days of

week. dow's bull run snapped wednesday after hte markets saw consoidation following such a sharp and unexpected rally . federal reserve chair janet yelling saying this week an interest rate hike could come , quote relatively soon. many analysts expecting that rate hike to hit in december, however, some investors now backing away, speculating hte possinility of another delay as the market still adjusts from the trump victory. it's that uncertainty that could push the could plant the fewest winter wheat acres in usda reporting history. informa economics releasing its latest 2017 acreage forecast this week pegging winter wheat acreage at 33 point 7 million. that's a 2 million acre drop from it's previous forecast and would be the lowest planting since usda started keeping records in 1919. informa pegging 2017 soybean

firm lowering corn projection to 90 point 8 million, a 3.6% reduction from 2016. corn weekly exports skyrocketing 35 percent this week. at 1 poin 66 million metric tons, that's also 47 percent above the 4- week average. unknown destination buys accoutning for 433 thousand metric tons. and japan purchased 255 thosuand metric tones. those are the headlines...meteorologist mike hoffman joins us now with weather... mike, i can't believe we're already talking about thanksgiving. but it's also deer season for many viewers. how's the huntign weather shaping up? thanks tyne, well it won't be too bad at least in between the storm systems will show you those coming up in the meantime he'd love to get a storm system in the southeast this is getting bad folks a really exceptional to extreme drought in many parts of mississippi alabama georgia

already seen some of it but as we move through the last four weeks he and see all that area's expanded its also been expanding westward into a parts of eastern oklahoma and eastern texas as well hasn't gotten any worse in the northeast hopefully it won't lead all expected to bid it probably will get worse still in the southeast over time here's what's going on on monday pretty good storm system double barrel one come in and now west us know in the northern rockies otherwise rain even some thunderstorms in the southwestern portions of the country for the northeast cold blast of air coming through the great lakes into the northeast will be some lingering snow showers in those areas heading toward wednesday then you can see that western system comes into the middle of the country so rain for wednesday the busiest travel day of the year across the country you can see from chicago western great lakes all the way down in new orleans it will be wet at times system starting to come in out west as well by friday then after

most of the country lingering rains in the northeast with some snow in the northern fringe a little bit of snow up along the canadian border with the rain again moving in to the pacific northwest. back in our next half hour with a longer range outlook with such a powerful performance by the u-s dollar this week, we'll talk to the analysts about what it means for commodity prices moving forward. brian basting and jim bower join me after the break. u.s. farm report brought to you by mycogen seeds. visit mycogen dot com or your local mycogen seeds dealer to learn about our relenteless dedication to you

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h me this weekend brian basting of advance trading and jim bower of bower trading. what an eventful week in the stock market, in the u s dollar. we had the dollar hit it hit a thirteen year high jim. the stock market dow jones industrial had a new high. is it

fiscal policy or what's driving those markets right now? we're going to see higher interest rates probably higher inflation and higher value of the dollar, all of which could have direct impact on agriculture in a pretty major way. but the market needs time. i made a note that, be careful about putting too much emphasis what happens between election day and inauguration day. because history says there isn't much correlation from that point forward in terms of the election to see if there's a major change. but the market senses that a major change in philosophy now. do you think we've over done it? do you think maybe the dollar has gone too far at this point? that certainly a possibility. one thing i'd i'd caution your viewers on as this, sometimes the timing of this can be good sometimes it can be bad for this reason. the higher interest rates and the higher currency value of the u s dollar right now is causing the brazilian

so there's a window here where where if they're domestic price of corn spikes because the stronger dollar versus the real, we could see a significant increase in double crop corn acres in brazil in january february. so just a secondary factor . do you expect that to happen? and i've heard that that that jim planting and there is going extremely well. our scouts sent us a video. it looks like he was coming up through madagrosa de sol and it looked like the crop was about six to ten inches tall in good shape so far. they have a good planting weeks in south america. so we do have to put a lot of emphasis on weather and weather related factors and that's that's a week first full two pages with having down there. weather is still key this point forward. the acreage mix, initially, are you thinking maybe more corn now since that seems like a more profitable option now when we look at the double crop situation? jim made a real good point that the soybean crop is planted so much earlier this year. last year they delayed the planting

and delayed a planting of double crop corn. this year the beans have been planted on time. if they get harvested on time in january, we could see up one hundred percent the double crop corn acreage in brazil planted in the best window in january february. last year was later and it suffered drought. at the same time early planting means early harvest which means that it could eat into our exported and be a bigger competitor to us earlier on. so we have trump inauguration in january, possibly that late january time frame, maybe we could see some some early harvest time frame. does that scare you a little bit? it seems like some negative news that could come at us at once in this new year? it's going to impact not only what happens in brazil. as far as their situation and it's gonna come back and in fact what are farmers and ranchers are thinking here in the united states, i just looked at the ratio of soybeans to corn for next year, two point six two

then planning decision process? but the one thing about those bean markets, i said do what the chinese do, not what they say. they are great traders. they have a way of understanding value. they have scouts in brazil also argentina and they're watching what's going on. i wouldn't be totally surprised if their crops develop as strong as it is, that they don't can't some of these sales they or purchases that they made .and i'm hoping not so far they've been very very we get closer to the finality of their crops, there could be some winds of change there. jim mentioned acreage here, and informa released some acerage forecast this week. you know bearish on the corn acres that thinks that we're going to see more soybean acres, which it is the popular opinion of of many when you look at the prices today. but do you think they could see corn acres go under ninety million. do you think we can dip that low? it's a

but i would say that's a possibility. a lot of producers or maintain a more flexibility in their planting decisions than they were five ten years ago. i e they're putting on the nitrogen in the spring . those were decisions they made ten years ago in the fall. so i think that that that would seem a little low. but again the economics of the economics dictated down the road and producers will embrace beans. but also really low in the wheat acerage. the lowest in fifty years or maybe ever possibly. do you think that we will see that few of winter wheat acres go in? yeah i think out were just wrapping up planting now. so i think were really looking at some significant reduction in parts of the hard red winter belt. maybe not as much as people thought earlier. same for soft red . there were some some really drastic cuts being talked out earlier. maybe not quite so high but still down as you said. and i do think that we right now and just have a difficult time getting producers to think their tension . we never want to cut production jim, but that's what we need in order to raise his prices right ?not only

my feeling is, i think we're gonna see more reduction in wheat acreage than the trade thinks at the present time. we had a little bit of improvement with the russian situation. that they had to bump their crop up a bit. about everybody else has got some issues with planting with at this level or lower. you saw what happened in oates when they decide to turn in their in their way of course the funds were short about a minute short about a hundred twelve thousand contracts a week. there's a spark there that something happens i had that we are going be a little bit more about all of the more interesting than a lot of people think down the road. and if we do have fewer acres than what the trade is thinking when you think we'll realize that? i know the usda comes out on january twelfth with their winter wheat seeding report. so that we have a closely watched report. our first estimate for two thousand seven planting mix. all right we have much more to talk about including a possible cut in oil production at this point is opec even matter and the big in the big game we'll talk about that

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he first roundtable we talked a lot about south america and the crop is going great. and we you know we've kind of talk that we need a hiccup to happened down there in order for us to have have higher prices here. so because the crop is it going in so well, n we bank on a record crop down there at this point? it's a great point. each year is different. as we saw last year, we had extreme flooding argentina late in the growing season that really gave us a bump particularly in the soybean and soybean meal market. so no we can't bank on it. i think we have to respect the fact it has the potential be quite large. one thing i'd share with your viewers though is that if all the beans are planted in a fairly narrow window, which they have been, there also mature in a fairly narrow window. which means if there were something like a wet harvest in january

yield in and give the market opportunity. so be flexible on your marketing. get a floor in place but give yourself an opportunity in case a weather issue does arise. we talked little bit about interest rates a little earlier on a what a trump administration would mean for interest rates. were hearing yellen saying that that an interest rate hike is coming soon. i know a rate hike in december was kind banked in. but w somelyare saying hold on her verbiage was it strong enough. that maybe a rate hike is not coming in december. what do you think is going to happen? what does she want her legacy to be? it's not what jim thinks is what the market thinks. the markets thinks that the present time they were gonna have higher interest rates down the road. may be higher than you think. you know i've i've heard of that dollar sharply higher than where it is that the current price. it had a devastating affect upon exports. it was tough in agriculture when the dollar got up more than one twenty. it was a brutal scene.

re so than they have in the past. tax structure may change here now. that will encourage corporations to be a little bit more aggressive. so i think it's a combination of the matchign the global situation of the domestic situation. but overall the market says higher inflation higher interest rates and a stronger dollar. brian this week we saw some decent corn export sales compared to last week compared to the four week average decent by a friday morning for soybeans. but as long as we have the strength in this u s dollar, do these weekly export sales in the strength doesn't matter right now? we've discovered in the past the primary factor driving u s corn exports is the amount of competition available. i don't want to discount the dollar for example. it's a very important factor. but what we discovered is this more of a secondary factor. so when you don't have the competition available for example from brazil this year, that we did last year in corn, we're seeing the world come to

strength of our dollar. but down the road if you get a combination for example, of a larger a big rebound in brazilian production and a stronger u s dollar, that's not a good combination for exports down the road. with oil prices was all a little life earlier this week on talks that opec may cut production but in the big scheme of things, does opec even matter anymore jim? well their influence seems to be more diverse than what it has been in the past. but the question is what he'd do with them are the way that large in this chaos that in between lie four dollars per barrel to around fifty. so that it was a broad trading range. . we've been doing at bauer trading is as we were looking for opportunities on these major setbacks, gasoline and fuel prices, the lock in long term usage factors for these large scale farm ranch operations from the protections from a hedge standpoint. . all right real quick switching gears cattle prices heading into this holiday season what are you expecting to close out twenty sixteen. well it's going to be a choppy road i'm afraid. of

competition strong. so the best case scenario is i think we're starting to see placements back off a bit. but i think first of maybe a choppy road for cattle in and we'll see if it holds on the day's low hundred dollar level. all right thank you both for gonna get their closing thoughts when we come back on u s farm report don't go anywhere s farm report don't go anywhere

welcome back time now for closing thoughts. jim bower. let's start with you. most certainly is an interesting time currency standpoint, the interest rate standpoint, inflation standpoint. you gotta be careful about tampering down your enthusiasm because there's some issues out there that we gotta be careful. as far as producers moving grain, which a lot of them they're going need to do for cash for a reason for tax reasons, bower trading likes the approach of repositioning some of those sales to spread relationships--long term, bull

hat we review underwritten options strategies that as we did on a customized base and risk tolerance of the client. between those two strategies what we live on my plate instead went out ahead brian. i think with it the crops tucked away here tremendous amount of a bushels out there. whether it's corn or soybeans. what we're encouraging producers to think about now is defending their balance sheets most importantly getting control those bushels. by that mean we mean a tremendous amount of equity tied up in those bushels r for those bushels be a different marketing tool, it can be a put option, a sale on call option but give yourself an opportunity to participate if there is an issue in south american weather. but that control those bushel get control. thank you both stay with us john phipps joins us next to receive a free trial of the daily market letter and gain knowledge about current market conditions from the professionals at bauer trading view the markets like never

on results from last tuesday night. and john the highly debated soda tax is on john's mind this week. voters okayed increased taxes in several cities last week - a pretty surprising development given the anti-tax mood. the taxes are on soda or pop or whatever your word for sugar- sweetened-beverages - ssb's. varying from 1 to 1? cents per ounce, it doesn't seem like a big deal, but it might be, in two ways. first, as was emphasized in the philadelphia example, it is a relatively inoffensive source of revenue for hard-pressed city budgets. after all is you don't drink many ssbs, it's an easy tax to support. for that city, annual revenue of about 90 million dollars is expected. tying that revenue to schools or other popular uses helped get it passed as well. secondly, we have all been hearing for years about sugar consumption, and one

similar drinks. they contain astonishing amounts. one can of coke has 9 1/3 teaspoons of sugar in it. try piling that much sugar in a cup just to get the idea. ssbs also include sports and fruit drinks with added sugar. there is some evidence that such taxes work. mexico instituted a fairly modest tax - 8 cents per liter - and saw ssb consumption drop h obesity and diabetes epidemics for years. such taxes are not without controversy. soda consumption in the us has already been dropping after hitting a peak of about 1.3 cans per person per day in the 90's. like cigarette and alcohol taxes, many citizens are automatically exempt due to their consumption preferences. adding those folks to people worried about the health issues

ible. i suspect we will see more government bodies eye this source of revenue to make ends meet. thanks, john. speaking of ends meet... pork producers are strugglign right now to find profits. we'll look at why some are starting compare it to the 1998 pork crisis. that's our farm journal report after the

from the studios of farm journal broadcast, this is u.s. farm report. welcome back to u-s farm report. we have much mroe ahead over the next half hour. pork pressure hits producers-- but is it another crisis? that's our farm journal report. is cannabis the new cash crop for farmers? john weighs in. and if you're int he market to buy equipment, now may be the time/ now for the headlines, the latest ag barometer showing 1 in farmers are facing negative cash flows this year. but to lenders' surprise, deliquencies on loans aren't as severe as cast. midwestern ag bankers continue to share concerns about the state of the farm economy. the rural mainstreet index dropped below growth neutral for 15 th straight month. 70 percent of bank ceo's indicate their bank

falling farm income. bankers expect loan default rates to be roughly 5 percent in the next year. i spoke to lenders during the agricultural banekrs association conference in indianapolis this week. farmermac, a group that parnters with rural lenders, says while it's not a time of prosperity, we're aren't see a complete collapse of the ag economy like the 1970s or 80s. they compare today's tightness in income levels to the early 2000s.

taking steps to fund it's acquisition of monsanto. the company putting up more than 4 billion dollars in convertible notes. its bid of 57 billion dollars is a steep climb although the company is confident. bayer says it expects to close the deal in 2017. its planning to submit applications to regulatory authorities very soon. the november election is having a major impact on agriculture, with california voters deciding to make the largest gmo free county in the tuesday, sonoma county california is hte latest county to ban farmers from planting genetically modfied crops. the county is 13 thosuand 734 square miles, but has a thriving ag economy. any acres already planted are grandfathered in, as are farmers who already purchased seed for next year. but after that, everyoen will have to abide by the enw rule. the legal battle may not be over. sonoma county farm bureau says the measure is vaguely worded adn would

diseases. that's it for news...meteorologist mike hoffman joins us now with the national forecast. mike, some of our viewers seeing their first snow this week. so does that officially break the warm snap we've been seeing? thanks tyne while i would say we're going into one of those patterns where we can go back and forth for a while eventually though i think it does turn cold in the east it's cold there now but its not going to stay there even sale a jet stream will warm things up again with the ridge coming into the northeast by wednesday storm system with it that will be bringing some moisture to many parts of the country by friday another one into the middle of the country and that will continue to move eastward there with time as well some more cold air above the arctic air still can a bottled up to the north here is my 30 day out look for temperatures going below normal from the year when atlantic states all the way through the great lakes near normal in the in the southeast and central plains adn then from texas through most of the west warmer than normal over the next

above normal most of the great lakes into the northeast below normal and forcefully in the southeast where that drought is ongoing and above normal in the pacific northwest tyne thanks, mike. pork producers are facing tight margins right now. the latest sterling profit tracker showing farrow to finish producers lost 42 dollars per head last week, which is a dollar worse than the week before. at the same time, packers are seeing better margins at 46 dollars per head. that imbalance is weighing on prices across the board. so is this a repeat of 1998? that's our farm journal report the road of tight margins hasn't been a lonely one for pork producers this year, as both livestock and grains are feeling the pinch. but it's reminding some of the 1998 pork price collapse, fearing the inudstry is on the brink of another historic time.

similar and a lot of hte concerns about packer capacity are also there> what's different today than 1998? peterson says a much strong equity position on the producer side. while the situation is different today, the fear is still there.

however if you look at the futures market, there are some months, espcially during hte summer that would indiciate some positive margins are coming> it's a strong risk management plan helping the maschhoffs soften the blow.

percent over 2016, but a 4 percent jump from june. roose says an adjustment in supplies is tough with today due to the vertical integration of the hog indsutry.

it's taking the bad in stride, while preparing for the good, that will help pork producers survive.

marijuana

s in it for you? well, it's a topic we haven't covered a lot on our show, but it's making headlines across the country. and it's thiss week's customer support. bob dillard noticed something important i think that also happened on november 8: "at what point do we begin recognizing the tremendous number of our fellow citizens who now can use

oregon, washington and now over 12 percent of the population in caliia plus massachusetts, nevada, maine as well as florida, north dakota. it's clearly a growth industry with a giant upside that will only continue to grow." bob, you make a great point. recreational and medical marijuana measures passed in numerous and varied states, but i do not think this is going to become a big money maker for farmers. i may be one of the few of my generation who did no experiment with marijuana in the 60's and 70's or since, believe it or not. so i'm relying on excellent information from michael pollan's book, the botany of desire. his explanation of marijuana breeding and production soon dispels any dream a lucrative

intensive lights, just like most profitable vegetables are grown under irrigation. there are growers producing outside, but the lower electricity costs are offset by higher security expenses. the breeding is highly sophisticated and as scientific as corn hybrids. production is also labor intensive, and highly regulated - aspects most farmers dislike. but most of all, big legalization for years and will bring enormous financial and technical assets to dominate the market. it only takes relatively few acres, unlike grains. while local marijuana wiull still be grown, like backyard gardens, the big market will be served by bigger players. there is simply too much money to be made to be ignored by big business. states will likely encourage this

revenue. i support legalization but don't expect it to save many family farms. thanks, john. and if you have questions or comments for john, which i imagine this is a topic we will hear about, , email us at mailbag at u-s farm report dot com, or send us a note on faceook or twitter. up next, better than expected yields could help balance sheets. and if you're in the market to buy equipment, now could be the

2016 has been a year for the record books. despite tighter margins across the farm economy, equipment values are staying relatively strong. this week, we're on the road with machinery pete to boone iowa where van wall equipment is creating opportunity from the challenges, and it's paying off

with miles upon miles of corn fields.

he says he's happy with the one year old machines featuring low hours and the preowned, and extended warranty.

yers. but last year, in december the last 3 weeks there were to omany wholesale auctions at the same time."> he says that's the first time in 12 years he saw prices get softer during the fourth quarter. but 16 is proving to be different as dealers like van wall are more aggressive in moving equipment throughout the year.

the price movements bc there are opporutnites when a market changes> but with the wave of commodity prices, some farmers were able to market the crop at profitable levels, having an immediate impact on dealers. whiel that was short lived, it's also a golden crop in the field moving moods. , van wall is not only focused on today, but tomorrow... while tomorrow is uknown for schipper, it's tightening margins today

on today. but when you have to have a machiey to get harvet done, that's what you have to do"> next month we'll visit sloan implement in assumption, illinois, where rolling late model used combines every year has become a popular option for farmers. when we come

welcome back to tractor tales folks. this week were in southern georgia and in all when ic tractors whether they need a little work or they've been professionally restored there's always a story about it and this week we're gonna learn about a special john deere b this b came from sylvester georgia brother roy carroll he's a pastor he was our interim paster at one time

was his uncle's tractor and he had had several years up there at his house and he just told me one day say they can get it if you want so i went and got it and we had a redo the motor and a head was cracked and got it back and painted it ee it now and so about three years ago i recon it was what i called him i asked him would you come in drive in the parade for me and he did. and so i called him the next year that was asa do you want drive your tractor again he said no but i got a took him three four hours to get here and he came in drove it and aftor the next day at two after he got back home he mailed me a letter and it can make tears come in your eyes, he was talking about that i wouldn't know what can a memmories this kind of tractor brought back to him it was his granddaddies tractor and he said i can remember when i was just a little younger set in his lap and driving it i can to get

nnel on and see all them pretty new tractors coming through there that are painted next morning i'm going at it again you know, thanks, greg. well, we dont' have a country churchto share this week. so i wanted to take the time to remind you, that if you have a hometown church you'd like featured on our program, we'd love to hear from you. just sumbit it either by mail or email to the addresses on our screen, and we'll get it on our

we have some farm photos to share this week. robert says his 8 year old son grayson was helping dad harvest this year running the grain cart. farm averages were wide in pennsylvania , 100 to 214 bushels per acre on corn and 30 to 74 on beans. by the way,

central portion of the state. he says yields were better than expected adn they had good test weight. eric minks found not only his last 8 rows this week, but his last 8 stalks. and now harvest 2016 is in the books. mitch larsen sent us this photo of the last rows of harvet 2016 which is now in the books. he says they have so much to be thankful for this thanksgiving. it was at ought july, but teh rains in august helped save the corn and bump up beans. he says they were expecting snow later this week, so rushing to finish fall field work before the snow hit. a lot of places including you going to get a little white stuff some places get a lot buy mayne not a white thanksigivng? it's always nice for hte kids to play outside. i see a big storm coming for thingsl ike that it's always good to play outside. we want to hear from you. seend pricurtres or videoes to us to

atching. be sure to join us again next week as we haev our annual harvest of thanks special it's a show you won't want to miss have a great weekend ever. high strength steel for high strengh dependability. the chevy silverado. the official newsgathering vehicle

saturday november 19th. starting out with a live look at a grand jury will decide if a cedar rapids police officer should face charges for shooting a man. the end of 2016 is seeing a decrease in shots fired calls in cedar rapids. and..a special guest made an apperance at friday night's performance of the broadway hit musical hamilton in new york. you're watching kcrg-tv9. now, from your 24 hour news source, this is the kcrg-tv9 good morning and thanks for joining us. we begin with first alert storm team meteorologis t britley ritz. the sunshine is back for the day, but what won't return would be the warmer