hello and welcome to nhk "newsline." i'm keikichi hanada in tokyo with the latest at this hour. economists at the international monetary fund have looked down the road aways. they see a slow and a bumpy patch ahead. they released an economic outlook after opening up the imf world bank meetings in tokyo, and they cut their forecasts yet again. nhk world's ron madison followed

the talks for us at the tokyo international forum. >> reporter: we have spoken with a number of influential economists, and the general sense we're getting here is one of uncertainty. finance ministers, central bank governors and their colleagues from 188 member nations have all read and many have even written about the trouble spots, trouble spots that we've all been hearing about so much lately -- greece, italy, and spain. but they also see question marks elsewhere in europe and in the united states too if politicians there fail to agree on policies that promote growth. let me read one line from the report. it says the recovery has suffered new setbacks and uncertainty weighs heavily on the outlook. >> ron, that looks like a weighty forecast. what jumped out at you from those pages? >>. >> reporter: actually quite a weighty book, as well, i'm guessing about 230 pages here. the folks at the international monetary fund release this it

outlook four times a year, but the wording in the last six months sounds more and more pessimistic. they say the risks of a slowdown are, in their words, alarmingly high. they've revised their forecast down to 3.3%. >> the world economic recovery continues, but it has weakened further. in advanced economies growth is now too low to make a substantial dent in unemployment. >> reporter: chief economist olivier blanchard outlined factors that are pulling down growth in developing economies, including budget restructuring and a weak banking system. he says is crisis in the eurozone remains the most obvious threat to the global outlook. now, he projected the region's economy will shrink by 0.4%. contrast that with the forecast for emerging markets and developing countries, that coming in at 5.3% growth. but blanchard and his colleagues

see the downsides even in that figure. they've revised china's growth down 0.2 percentage points from three months ago, india's down 1.3 points. they forecast an increase of 2.2% in both japan and the united states. and they do predict, as well, stronger growth worldwide next year at 3.6%. blanchard said figuring these things out can make for a complex puzzle. i had the chance to speak with him earlier about what pieces need to fall into place. does seem the recovery is losing a bit of steam. take us where we stand right now in the global recovery. >> the first thing to say is this is still a recovery. we have numbers from the world growth of 3.5%. that's a recovery. it's clear it has weakened since last time we had forecast, which was three months ago, so that's a bit worrisome. just a bit. the reason is probably an

increase in uncertainty. there are many reasons always, but one is decrease in uncertainty about what policy makers are going to do in a few crucial parts of the world, and i think that explains the slowdown. >> reporter: and what about europe? we did get news today that the european mechanism was launched. do you think it can be fully mobilized in a timely manner to mitigate what's going on in europe right now? >> i think the very good news is europeans have understood they come to it bit by bit. they need to have an architecture, which makes sense, for the eurozone. the large controls have been defined. in the context, the fact they are coming online is a very important step. i think the thing that we are worried about is implementation of these fairly general promises. if implemented, i think that we can be reasonably optimistic that things will turn around. >> reporter: there certainly seems to be a lot of wild cards on the global front.

we have at least three major elections as well as a change of power in china. this could point to political uncertainty at a critical juncture. how does this make your projections? >> we assume the u.s. will not jump from the fiscal cliff, that they'll find some way. we assume that what the europeans have promised will be put in place. not overnight. we're realistic. but fairly steadily so it spreads to countries and bonds will come down. and in china, we assume that what they need to do to maintain growth around 8% they'll do. if this doesn't happen, could be much worse. >> reporter: okay. thanks so much for your time today. good to talk with you. one thing that's very interesting to point out is we wouldn't even be here at the tokyo international forum if things had gone according to plan. organizers at the imf and world bank had planned to hold these meetings in egypt, but the political turmoil there forced them to reconsider.

a japanese bureaucrat immediately raised his hand and proposed that japan would host. we spoke with the vice minister of finance for international affairs. >> reporter: the vice minister was instrumental in bringing the event to tokyo. he says there are two goals he hopes to achieve through the meetings. >> in the international economy, there are a lot of challenges, including those in euro and advanced countries. so we want to provide a good opportunity for discussing these challenges. we are recovering from the disaster last year of the tsunami and so on. i want these meetings -- this opportunity would be important opportunity for japan to show

the people from abroad to see that japan is recovering, economy is stable, society is integrated. >> reporter: debt problems in the eurozone remain the biggest concern for the global economy. nakao says japan will continue to support the region. >> greece and spain and other countries are making serious efforts of fiscal consideration and reform. they are doing a lot. but what i want to -- what japan wants to stress here is that they must continue to have a set form. we have invested in the bond and the esm, a bond. if it is started as scheduled and once it gets a rating, we will consider whether we will continue to -- whether we'll buy the esm bond.

>> reporter: another risk to the global economy is the slowdown in china. we asked nakao if he thinks the chinese authorities will take additional measures to boost the economy. >> they might be prudent because if assistance is given by the government for the public wealth and so on, it is not in line with the transformation to the consumption economy. and also it might involve the risk of inflation and realistic hike and so on. so they look a little bit prue dentd, but they have 7.5% of growth target. so i think in the end they'll achieve the goal. >> reporter: recent tensions over territorial disagreements between japan and china have

cast a shadow over the two economies. nakao says he hopes the meetings will help the two sides overcome their differences. >> this shouldn't impede a strong economic tie. and i mention that prime minister noda and premier wen last december agreed to the cooperation. we have a lot of concrete efforts. once again, i hope that any difficulties will not harm this kind of progress. >> reporter: all right. well, as you can imagine, bankers have been wringing their hands at all this uncertainty that we've been talking about. tomorrow we'll take a look inside the financial sector. we'll have lots more from here at the tokyo international forum. >> that was nhk world's ron madison. you can read or watch our

interviews with top economists attending the imf world bank annual meetings. just come to our website. world bank representatives and japanese officials are also holding meetings in this country's northeast. last year's earthquake and tsunami hit the region hard. people attending the gathering are sharing ideas on disaster recovery and prevention. nhk world takafumi terui reports. >> reporter: the meeting has been dubbed the sendai dialogue named after one of the biggest cities in the northeast. more than 300 particants have come here from around the world and across japan. they include government officials, experts, and representatives of international organizations. they spent two days talking

about the lessons of the march 11, 2011, disaster and subsequent recovery efforts. >> translator: we've learned a lot from our disaster recovery efforts. i believe it's critical for us to share these lessons with people around the world, and i'm making that another personal mission. >> we'll not be able to prevent the natural hazards that threaten people around the world. but working together, we can lower the dangers, prepare better, respond more quickly, lessen the costs, and first and foremost make the lives of people all over the world safer. >> reporter: panel discussions on tuesday focus on disaster preparedness in developing countries. world bank researchers compiled the report on the lessons learned from japan's recent

earthquake. they have woven disaster risk management into their culture. schools, offices, and communities hold regular drills to prepare for earthquakes and other events. the panel has recommended people in developing countries adapt similar safeguards. >> we have learned very important lessons here that need to be translated, especially also then into developing countries where it will be really crucial to incorporate better disaster risk management in the development policies. >> not only the government, but more importantly the community more importantly the community so they will be better able to prepare to mitigate the future risks of any future natural disaster. >> reporter: the sendai dialogue is a chance for experts to share ideas on how to mitigate the risks caused by natural disasters.

earthquakes and other events can strike at any time. pinpointing when is not yet possible, so people here say learning from the past and preparing for the future is the best way to save lives. takafumi terui, nhk world, sendai. two scientist france and the u.s. are sharing this year's nobel prize in physics. they developed different method thods for generating next-generation supercomputers. members of the royal swedish academy of sciences in stockholm made the announcement on tuesday. professor hideshi hara from the ecole normale superieure paris and university of colorado physicist david wineland were honored for their breakthroughs in quantum physics. they studied the interaction of light and matter. the field has been rapidly progressing since the mid-80s. haroche and wineland's research

is serving as the basis for super fast computers currently in development. japan's prime minister has achieved something he won't be celebrating. an nhk poll suggests the support rate for yoshihiko noda and his cabinet has fallen to its lowest level since his government was sworn in september last year. nhk surveyed 1,056 people between saturday and monday. participants were aged 20 and older. they gave the cabinet the support rate of 26%. that's down five percentage points from last month's survey. the number of voter who is don't support the cabinet is up by five points to 58%. the support rate for the prime minister's democratic party hit its lowest level since it took office. it fell by three percentage points to 14%. on the other hand, the support rate for the liberal democratic party rose to 26%. almost double that of the dpj.

that's an increase of six points. nhk also questioned respondents about which party's leader would make the best prime minister. 18% say noda is appropriate. 30% support shinzo abe, the leader of the ldp and a former prime minister. 49% say neither man is right for the job. so we are seeing changing fortunes for the dpj and the ldp. earlier i spoke with nhk world's mayo coe ambe. what's behind the support for the opposition of the liberal democrats? >> last month had a big impact. it led japan continuously for more than half a cinentury unti the democrats took power in 2009. the liberal democrats have been unpopular for the past few years. their leadership race touched on the territorial disputes japan

is having with its neighbors. for example, china and south korea. as you know, the subject has been getting a lot of attention these past few months. the winner of the ldp election, shinzo abe, took a tough stance on the issue. he said japanese need to protect their land and sea with their own hands, stressing the country should strengthen its military power. >> some people are surprised to see abe win given that he was prime minister five years ago but resigned. how do they feel he stacks up against noda? >> many voters feel they can no longer expect strong leadership from the dpj to deal with the more difficult issues of governing, such as those territorial disputes. our survey suggests abe's captured their attention. he's almost twice as popular as noda, and that's helped renew interest in the ldp. >> what about the third political party that recently came out to the scene? how did the japan restoration party do in this survey? >> not well.

i was here last month talking about a poll that suggested more than half of voters have either some or high expectations of the japan restoration party. but it's still quite far behind the ldp. only 2% of those surveyed in this new poll endorsed it. however, we'll probably see that number rise as voters start to learn about the the party and its policies. more than anything, this poll is a bit of a wake-up call for prime minister noda and his ruling dpj. a general election is on the horizon. political parties are working to lock in support. noda and his colleagues now have even more work to do to convince voters they serve a second chance at governing. south korean authorityies have arrested a north korean for an assault on kim jong-un in china. the man was arrested after entering the south in march. he was posing as a north korean

defector. prosecutors in seoul say the man snuck into china as a spy for north korea's state ministry. they say he was ordered around july 2010 to assault kim jong-un who lived in china. the prosecutors say he admitted to plotting the attack. they indicted him on charges of violating the national security law. the south's news agency says the man paid a taxi driver in china to stage a hit-and-run accident on kim jong-nam. kim jong-nam wonce criticized te north korean leadership for the transfer of power from kim jong-il to his third son, kim jong-un. defense officials in north korea have accepted a new agreement between south korea and the u.s. that they overextend the range of ballistic missiles held by seoul to cover the whole of north korea. the north's national defense commission has claimed its

strategic rocket forces can strike bases in south korea as well as plalss in japan, guam, and the u.s. mainland. the statement also said north korea is prepared to counter any missiles on nuclear weapons with equal force. u.s. and south korean officials say the range of seoul's ballistic missiles will be increased from 300 to 800 kilometers. they say the extension is in response to the north's missile development program. sri lanka shines as a center for global production of precious stones. the island produces several dozen types of gemstone famous around the world for their quality. gems also are a valuable component of the nation's exports. japan was once sri lanka's largest partner in the trade. but in recent years, the industry has seen big changes, and a new customer is number one. nhk world reports.

>> reporter: sri lankan gemstones such as the blue sapphire fetch eye-watering prices on the world market. this 80-karat blue sapphire has a price tag of about $1.3 million. it was one of many gems on display last month in sri lanka's largest city, colombo, at the annual precious stone trade fair. the 100 sri lanka gem traders taking part in the fair have witnessed a new source of demand flourished in recent years. the venue is teeming with buyers from china. >> it's good. >> all chinese like sapphire very much because the color's very beautiful. >> i think more and more sapphires will be exported to china.

i think in the next maybe three, five years, the trade will continue. >> reporter: until the mid 1990s, more than 60% of sri lanka's gems were sent to japan, but japanese demand plummeted while chinese shipments surged. he started a trading company in japan 26 years ago, but today sales have slumped about 80% from the boom years. hawk has been expanding business in china instead. he has four shops in beijing and plans more in shanghai. >> chinese market is a new market and it is still at the infant stage, but now the chinese people are also following the japanese. >> reporter: chinese customers purchase jewelry as an investment. hack says they don't think twice about spending hundreds of thousands of dollars, and almost

always pay with cash. >> i am confident business is going to grow within the next three to five years. the middle class is also growing in china, and now their purchasing power and the income level is also growing. >> reporter: china's growing wealth has eclipsed japan, making it the major destination for precious stones. no matter the destination for sri lanka's gem traders, business continues to sparkle. nhk world, colombo. a handwritten letter by albert einstein is up for auction on the internet. in it, he says that in a word, god is nothing more than the expression and product of human weaknesses. einstein wrote the letter in german in 1954 to the philosopher eric gutkind. a year later, the famous physicist died. >> after reading eric gutkin's

book, they were having their own private correspondence dealing with some of the -- these issues regarding god and religion and the meaning of such. >> einstein also describes the bible as a collection of honorable but still primitive legends. in 2008, the letter was sold in another auction for around $400,000. this time, it's starting at an opening bid of $3 million. u.s. and european media have been covering the event as it offers a clear glimpse into the nobel prize laureate's mind-set about religion. time now to check the world weather. here in tokyo, it's been getting cooler day by day. meteorologist robert speta has more in his world weather forecast. yes, things are chilling down across much of japan. it's due to a high pressure overhead here. you can see all these clear skies. that's allowing things to cool up through the overnight hours.

isle start off by showing you video out of northern japan. this is in toe shiga prefecture, about 1,400 meters above sea level, but the first hard freeze of 2012 was recorded here. this is ten days later than last year and the third late nest a decade. ice three millimeters thick formed over a bucket of water when the mercury plummeted to minus 4 degrees. you see some tourists enjoying the frost on local farms. absolutely beautiful there, but very cold and definitely marking the end of the growing season out across much of that area indeed here. it does look like things are going to continue to remain chilly across much of japan. very autumn-like here. even on wednesday, you might see some light rain showers into tokyo, and thursday into friday, see this low-pressure area over korea right now, that is going to be pushing over towards japan, evening bringing snow showers to the china/russia border. we're also talking about the tropics today. this tie fan moving of of ever so slowly off towards the

northwest at this time. it's expected to start to turn north and then eventually northeast by the end of the week. the main threat with this storm system is going to be the waves. near the center of circulation, 10-meter-high waves could be seen. definitely any shipping traffic through this area is going to be roughed up, but also along the coast in the southern japanese islands, okinawa, luzon, about 4-meter-high rough surf could be seen here. rip currents, as well. you want to stay out of the water at any of these areas through the m co-ing days. also we're continuing to watch the tropics towards the indochina peninsula, heavy rain showers there because of the monsoonal flow. let's look farther north because see all these clear skies in eastern china and northeastern china? that's due from high pressure coming in from the north that will be cooling things down and keeping things calm. beijing with a high of 22, chongqing at 19, hong kong at 19, ulaanbaatar towards the north on your wednesday, you'll only be seeing 13 going through the midpart of your week. over towards the americas, also

watching a low-pressure area move through the great lakes region. this is going to be bringing some heavy snowfall across portions of southern ontario. about 10 centimeters high, could be seen in some locations. attached to that is this frontal area that will bring you rain showers. as that cruises off towards the east, going to be bringing in colt temperatures behind it. look off towards the dakotas. on your tuesday morning, you could be seeing temperatures right around about 4 to 5 degrees, so definitely single-digit temperatures. but then by wednesday morning single-digit temperatures as well, but it's going to be on the other side of the spectrum. across this area, the lows could be right around minus 4 to minus 5 degrees. so very chilly. you want to bundle up across much of the dakotas here on your tuesday. over towards europe, also seeing some rough conditions, though, across the scandinavian peninsula and northern europe, into poland. poland, 108 kilometer-per-hour winds into the next 24 hours. germany and also austria, as well, about 70 to 90 millimeters

of rain due to this low-pressure area continuing linger here, picking up the rough conditions. also seeing heavy rainfall across the alpine regions and over towards the british isles affecting that throughout the coming days as well. temperatures will shape up like this. london and paris autumn-like, into the midteens here. south, though, in madrid, 27 expected at the midpart of your week. here's your extended the forecast. ♪

and that concludes this edition of "newsline." i'm keikichi hanada. on behalf of our team, thank you for staying with us.