government researchers have updated their estimates for a major earthquake that's forecast to hit japan. they say casualties could be in the hundreds of thousands and damage in the trillions of dollars. officials in municipalities near nuclear facilities in japan are facing an end of day deadline. many are running late in revising their plans to deal with accidents. and china's new president is

promising a better future for his people and a stronger nation. but xi jinping will face challenges as he tries to turn his dream into a reality. welcome to "newsline." disaster management officials in japan have released statistics they know are shocking, but that they hope will help people prepare. they say damage from an earthquake that's expected to hit any time could reach 2.3 trillion dollars in a worst-case scenario. that's more than twice the current national budget. scientists warn the nankai trough south of japan's main island could trigger a magnitude 8.1 earthquake. they say the probability of it happening sometime in the next 30 years is 70% to 80%. disaster management officials say in the worst case scenario the quake and resulting tsunami would kill more than 300,000 people. nearly 10 million others would need to take shelter because electricity and water supplies would be disrupted. officials say damage to housing,

businesses, factories could top $1.5 trillion. another $210 billion would have to be spent to the repair roads and railways. >> translator: we have taken the worst case scenario to improve our crisis management. the figures are severe, but we want the public to understand in a calm manner what would happen if a mega quake occurred. >> officials plan to compile new strategies within a year to minimize possible damages. forecasters at japan's meteorological agency plan to post new information online later this month in the event of a major earthquake. the service will give data about the effects of long period ground motion on tall buildings. major tremors can rock high rises far from the epicenter for several minutes. the forecasters will release information about the effects of

ground motion on buildings of 14 stories or more as soon as an earthquake occurs. the intensity of the motion will be ranked on a scale of 1 to 4 at levels one and two shaking will be felt but it's unlikely to cause structural damage. at three, walls would start cracking and people would find it hard to remain standing. people would be forced to crawl to get around, at level four. forecasters want the information to help protect those living or working in buildings that are more than 45 meters high. they say long period motion causes swaying that is stronger the higher people are in a building. another aspect of disaster preparedness in japan is the enlargement of evacuation zones around nuclear plants. municipalities located outside those zones until now are required to prepare for a possible accident but many are running behind schedule. the nuclear accident in fukushima made government

regulators realize communities needed to get better prepared. the regulators came up with new guidelines on dealing with emergencies. officials in every municipality were ordered to expand evacuation zones around plants from 10 kilometer radius to 30. they had to get ready to tell residents to evacuate or stay indoors based on radiation levels. officials in more than half the communities say they'll miss the deadline for updating their plans. some say nuclear regulators issued their guidelines too late. others say they haven't decided where to send residents or don't have the means to move them. all 50 nuclear reactors in japan lie near the coast. the people who live on them are finding out the evacuation plans don't fit with reality.

>> reporter: many of these neighbors look at him as a life line. in the event of a nuclear accident, he and other officials would have to ferry some 1,200 residents to safety. by law, his boat can carry 14 people, but most days he's out at sea. and he wouldn't be able to navigate if the waters are too rough. >> translator: if an earthquake triggers a nuclear accident, tsunami would also hit. if that's the case, we wouldn't be able to sail out. >> reporter: azuchi-oshin lies 13 kilometers offshore from the nuclear plant in western japan. municipal officials released their revised evacuation plan for the island last month. izake and other citizens gathered to discuss it at the fisheries co-op.

>> translator: how many do we carry on our boats? >> translator: it depends on the size. >> translator: each boat should carry as many people as possible and make a run for it. >> translator: what about the bedridden? do we have time to take them along? >> reporter: an nhk survey suggests half of local governments struggle with finding transportation in an evacuation. >> translator: of course we care about our neighbors, but our families are our top priority. i think we'd face a panic even if we ran simulation drills. >> reporter: authorities insist there's no other option but to rely on the fishers. the fishers say what works on paper might not work if the time came to flee. tamoko kamata, nhk world.

new research suggests that weapon production is up. analysts at the stockholm peace association says china's exports grew compared to the previous fei year period. they know it expanded 17% during that time and they say china establishing itself as a significant arms supplier. u.s. arms exports account for 30% of the total. followed by russia, germany and france. china replaced britain in the number five spot. pakistan was the biggest buyer of chinese fighter jets, submarines and other military equipment. it snapped up 55% of china's weapons exports. myanmar followed at 8%, and then bangladesh at 7%. india topped the list of top

five arms importers. china was second, ahead of pakistan, south korea and singapore. that reflects the ongoing military expansion across the asian region. china has always adopted a responsible and prudent attitude on weapons exports. >> he says chinese regulations require officials to determine if an order is based on legitimate demand and insure it will not jeopardize regional peace and stability. housing prices continue to rise in many cities in china. this is putting pressure on the government to implement new

measures for keeping prices down. the chinese statistics bureau says the prices were higher than in the previous month in 66 cities. that's more than 90% of the cities that the bureau surveys each month. guangzhou saw a rise of 3%. beijing and shanghai saw rises right around 6%. it had been levying real estate taxes in two major cities, shanghai and jongching but decided to kple kple -- implement them in other cities as well. they approved a new president and premier, a once in a decade change of leadership.

mitchitaka yamaka reports. >> translator: china's dream must be realized with the power of a united people. that's the dream of each and every chinese. >> reporter: xi used the phrase "china's dream" nine times in the speech. at the end of the congress. the new president pledged efforts to improve people's lives and lead a national renaissance. a strong china is part of that dream. a point driven home by the incoming premier. he spoke to the media saying china will maintain its uncompromising strength of sovereignty and territorial rights. >> translator: china is firmly determined to follow the path of peaceful development.

at the same time, china's position of defending its sovereignty and territory is unwavering. china will never bend these two principles. >> reporter: one of the new leaders did not speak, but his appointment has attracted much attention. he is vice president li yuanchao. li was a close aide to former president hu jintao. both men rose to power through the communist youth league. observers say he was grooming li for a spot in the politburo standing committee. the challenge now for president xi would be maintaining unity in the leadership. but this group and other factions could undermine his power and make it hard to implement reforms.

the annual session of parliament exposed many of the challenges. a key one is corruption. prosecutors submitted a report to congress. they said they had investigated 47,000 civil servants for bribery, fraud and other corrupt practices. but many delegates seem to think that not enough is being done on this issue. more than 20% voted against or abstained from approving the report. of more concern to the government is dissent on the street. people are angry at the widening income gap. they are also protesting over worsening environmental programs. >> translator: the cost of housing is too high. it's impossible for me to buy a home.

i hope life will get easier. >> translator: air pollution caused by pm-2.5 is a big problem. i want the government to make changes. it affects people's lives. >> translator: well, i want the new leaders to make progress on political reforms. introduce democratic changes and make a better society. >> reporter: china's new president promised to pursue china's dream. now his leadership faces the challenge of living up to that promise. to do that, they would have to bridge the huge gap between dream and reality for millions of chinese people. michitaka yamaka, nhk world beijing. it's often hard to grasp what's going on inside china's politics as there's so little media coverage.

we asked an expert in modern chinese studies about the characteristics of xi jinping's leadership. professor korogi of kendi university of international studies is a specialist on modern chinese politics. he says xi's influence on policymaking may be limited. >> china's new government, not the new leadership, this is because xi's predecessors are still, they are holding power. china now has a three-tier power structure involving xi and jiang zemin and hu jintao. xi is surrounded by members of the faction, so it will take some time for him to establish his own stance in running the government. >> he thinks the new premier li keqiang's power is limited because he doesn't have a military post. but he says xi cannot ignore li.

>> li would be able to extend some influence in the policymaking because he is backed by hu jintao. and li also has effective control over the state council which is the central government, because two of his vice premiers come from hu jintao's faction. >> xi has to overcome the numerous difficulties his country is facing such as environmental problems and rampant corruption. korogi thinks resolving such issues will not be an easy task because of the structural problems involved. >> environmental standards too strict, it may turn away foreign investments. domestic industries are also reluctant to take on pollution measures because the cost is too high. corruption is also very difficult, and a structure problem he has to face.

it would only spread if one-party rule continues because this system allows the communist party officials to avoid checks by the opposition party and the media. >> china may have more friction with its neighbors as it expands its military along with its economy. foreign government officials are waiting to see what kind of diplomatic steps will be taken by chinese leaders. >> i think the new chinese government wants to stabilize its external affairs and focus on internal affairs. so it may be willing to stabilize its relationship with japan and the united states and china and stable economic growth are indispensable for achieving the recovery of china's economy.

>> he says he is mainly watching two points. one is the possibility of a power struggle in the three-tiered power structure. and the other is china's one-party system. he doubts that the communist party will get enough support from the people in the future. it appears party officials do not intend to democratize the country. >> how long would they be able to avert change? i believe china will face critical moment in five to ten years from now. >> china's president and premier serve five-year terms. they are often re-elected, though, which means xi and li will probably be in charge for the next ten years. pakistan's electe an income gap divides the people, pollution threatens their health, and they have strained relations with their neighbors. find out about the challenges

china faces on "newsline." farmers in the japan spent the weekend thinking. they're concerned they won't be able to compete with cheaper inports. they're already struggling to increase productivity. it's well behind industry average. every year, they produce a third of what other sectors average. the number of farmers is about half of what it was 20 years ago. some of those who remain are turning to technology to try to boost their competitiveness. nhk world shows us what they're doing. >> a professor of agriculture. he may not look like he is raising livestock, but he is.

with his smart phone. he activates a speaker on a cattle farm, 130 kilometers away. the animals gather for lunch. with another tap on his phone, he releases their feed. . he developed a system with the help of a communications company. his team is experimenting with ways to monitor the health of his livestock from a remote location. they touch senators to the animals that measure body temperatures and heart rates. >> we're hoping to make the livestock industry more labor efficient. it would be great to revitalize

the industry together with young people. >> there are no cows to keep an eye on on this farm. they're using a cloud computing system. >> a junior farm employee snaps pictures with the company smart phone. >> translator: i don't know much about insects or plant diseases yet, so if i see anything, i upload pictures to the network. a senior farmer at the company headquarters checks the photos on the network. he then decides what needs to be done. >> translator: veterans can share knowledge with less experienced employees. that helps us reduce the number of crop failures. >> reporter: the information is in a cloud computing system operated by an electronics manufacturer.

the farm's president was having trouble managing his crops. >> translator: we have spinach there, cabbage there, and that field over there with the black soil is ours too. we have land all over the place. >> many farm have been abandoned. he started farming these areas. his farm is scattered in 90 plots. now he can use the system to streamline operations. he keeps track of his workers with gps. he can see if they're working from field to field in a cost effective way. gps records also a allow him to

track the progress. the areas in blue have been completed. red indicates that work needs to be done. >> using this information technology is the only way we can make a steady profit each year. i think it will let us compete with rivals overseas. >> unlike the majority of his fellow farmers, he considers the free trade agreement a good opportunity for his business. he says it would boost competitiveness in the framework, and help an industry that needs to survive. tokyo turned into windy city

today. a spring storm moved across much of the country. there was a wind gust reported over 130 kilometers an hour. accompanied by rain, totaling more than 280 millimeters, now we'll see the storm welcome it's now kbaking us in tokyo, we've been listening to the wind all night. so it's pretty intense system all together. we're going to be seeing much drier and calmer conditions into tomorrow as the system passes, but it is going to be warmer as well with those southerly winds coming in, and also with the rain and warmer temperatures with the wind as well, there will be risks, flooding caused by snow melt and avalanches. those are the things to watch out for with this kind of spring

storm. we're also going to see yellow stand come across from china. at the moment, it's been bringing dust storms in inland china. however, we'll be spared the cooler temperatures. beijing and northern china, colder temperatures. now south here you can see plenty of precipitation. you will be seeing thunderstorms that darted around as well. 5 degrees in beijing. on into the americas, we have been talking about lots of storms brings snow and rain towards the east, but it's looking quiet over the four corners. don't he will that fool you.

there is a couple early season fires started in colorado, and have already burned 323 hectares according to local authorities. residents were also evacuated. but colorado is experiencing extreme drought conditions meaning that any fire that's ig nighted could quickly become out of control. so an intense situation here president out towards the east, plenty of rainfall and snow towards the north. this is the system that will be crossing the great laking bringing very heavy snowfall. 20 or 30 centimeters is not out of the question. guests getting up to 80 kilometers per hour. the second system, the front, sagging down towards the gulf coast, bringing rain and severe

thunderstorms. we heard of large hail in parts of missouri as well as flooding prospects in parts of kentucky and in virginia. here are your temperatures. check this out, 30 in houston, 22 in tallahassee, dropping away very quickly. a quick look at europe, and it's looking stormy here too. the british isles, this one here is bringing snow and that will push toward the northeast, and a third system will push in here as go into tuesday. i'll leave you with your extended forecast.

and before we leave you, we have breaking news from the fukushima daiichi plant in japan. there has been a power failure at the damaged facility. right now spokespersons say the cooling system for the spent fuel rod pools and reactors one, three, and four are not operating. tepco is trying to fix the problem, we'll update this story at the top of next hour.

from all of us here at nhk world, thank you for joining us.

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