from washington, "the mclaughlin group," the american original. for over two decades, the sharpest

que sera sera, whatever will will be will be ♪ >> together we are going to make barack obama a one-term

president! >> so says minnesota congresswoman michele bachmann, the leader of the tea party caucus in the u.s. house of representatives. and the numbers may bear that out. there are 14 months before the november 6, 2012 presidential election. president obama finds himself in a dead heat with not one, not two, not, three, but four republican presidential candidates. so says the gallop poll this week. massachusetts governor mitt romney leads president obama 48 to 46 among registered voters. texas governor rick perry is tied with president obama, 47 to 47. texas congressman ron paul is trailing president obama by two points, 47 to 45. and minnesota congresswoman michele bachmann is behind president obama 48 to 44. all four are within a four- point margin every error.

but there's more to the obama bad news. the same gallop poll shows mr. obama is also losing the support of in the swing voters. swing voters broke heavily for mr. obama in 2008, 55%, securing the presidency for him. but 2012 is a different story. three republican contendersobam independents. obama with romney 47, obobama 44. perry 46, question, did these polls show the electriccability of the republican candidate is less important than the ousting of president obama? >> i think you're close to the truth, john. president obama is in serious trouble as a president and a candidate, partly because of a lot of news on the economic front looks like it's even getting worse, but what these polls show us is that as charlie cook said, this race is becoming the republican party's

to lose in 2012. the polls also show that the entire republican field it looks like including the controversial ones like michele bachmann may be acceptable to the american people, more importantly acceptable to the independents. everything, though, depends on the -- depends on what happens in the economy, john, because obama is still well liked by the american people and they still want him to succeed. >> i don't know how you -- his extraordinary weaknesses demonstrated in the polls. >> the american people have not given up on him. but in talking to various democratic operatives this week, they're close to despair about whether he will be able to turn this around. now, he's had low points before, and he seems to be able to come back. and i think what he has to say about jobs and can actually do about jobs when we comes back will be critical. but when you look at the opposition, i think once the republicans settle on a candidate, i think democrats are thinking that that person, if in particularly governor

perry or michele bachmann or ron paul even, that the contrast will make the democratic base which has been disappointed, it will make them rally around this president. they'll never recreate the positive energy they had four years ago. it could be negative energy to avoid a worse outcome, but we're still a long way from when this race will become engaged some john, don't give up on this president yet. way too soon. >> ron paul's two points behind. >> i would not read too much into this. at this point, all the people really know about any of these republicans is just that they're republicans so ron paul, michele bachmann, all generic republicans so this poll is more a sign of obama's weakness and the strengths of any candidate. but there's another loser besides obama from the polls, this that's mitt romney. if he gets the nomination t will depend heavily on 10 point ahead of the rest of the republican field against president obama, and if he and

rick perry are in the same slot, that's not good for mitt romney. >> i agree with rich. i've been saying all along for the republicans right now is that their most electable candidate mitt romney has the least chance of getting the nomination, just because a number of negative americans. maybe he has staying powering but if i was on the obama team, would you much prefer running against rick perry than mit nit. >> why? >> because of the possibility of another goldwater debacle like '64. the more people find out how conservative rick perry is, gives a great speech, excites the base, but i think he frightens enough independents and ex sights enough liberals that it would help obama at a time when he does need help. >> get from clarence and eleanor is eleanor didn't -- mitt romney has an acceptability i think to an awful lot of people in the center and on the right. i think in a race with obama

right now, he would win because the country would say, okay, we're going to take a chance with him. about but the other republicans have very sharp edges, which in a general election would be exposed, and you'd have a closer contest. >> okay. obama's albatross, the economy? >> the congressional budget office reported this week that unemployment will remain high between now and the end --

question, why is the public lost faith in president obama? is strictly the economy or more than the economy, like are the voters who voted for change not seeing the change? >> democrats are still sticking with him. i think the problem is a combination of the policies he pursued in the first two years of unpopular with the public, most importantly obama care, and then the rotten state of the economy. when we're growing at 1% with one employment rate above 9%, there's not much to be happy about. and the ratings on key issues, jobs, the budget and the economy generally are all in the mid-20s, which is a disastrous place for him to be. >> you can buy a t-shirt that says, president bush wrecked the economy, and president obama can't fix it. and i think that's where we are. and the president from the

democratic perspective has played it much too safe. he proposes modest efforts in the hopes the republicans will go along with it. they say no to everything, and i think there's a lot of pressure on him now to go big and bold and to confront the republicans, and you're with us or against us if you want to create jobs. here's the big plan. if you don't go along with it, you're a job killer. >> the plan will be -- >> the lingo -- >> the big plan is more spending, which is intellectually and politically discredited is what he's trying -- [everyone talking at once] >> and pulling money out of the economy now pulls jobs out of the economy. >> we're spending $900 billion more than in 2007 [everyone talking at once] >> we have eye short-term jobs crisis on a long-term deficit problem. the deficit can wait. if ronald reagan would were here -- >> but a $1.5 trillion deficit

isn't enough? >> you know -- [everyone talking at once] >> how much -- what percentage of the economy did he spent? the fact is it did work. it did work. >> never got on the 13% unemployment until world war ii! >> world war ii. government spending. >> eight years you want to start a war? [everyone talking at once] >> we need to mutt more money in the economy right now. [everyone talking at once] >> thank you. >> okay. let me in! if president obama can bring the unemployment rate down to 8%, by september, 2012, next year, before the election, couple months, will he have a better chance at winning re- election? >> 8% would be better than 9. and a lot better than 10.

>> will he have a chance of winning? >> i think he has a chance now and i think he has a better chance at 8%. >> it's at 9.2 now. >> he'll have a better chance at 8, obviously. better at 5. >> right. >> if the economy appears to be going in the right directions, he has a very good chance of getting reelected, especially in the republicans choose one of the candidates other than mitt romney, or jon huntsman. >> if i want -- this is what i want. and i think the question was ill put. i want to know at what level the unemployment would have to be for obama to win re- election. now at 9.2. >> below 8. he has much better than a 50-50 chance to win re- election. but unfortunately for the country,we're not going to get yo ? to g there 012. hath ion.

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eye long ropoib. rn o , anand at's wonderful. but that was . i'm glad that -- [eryone lkg at once] >> new d'tha to be in it. >> we're lucky. [everyone lkg oe] >> hold it, will yoea! 'rgeing more outs of the issue than here! issue three, eah ak! >> all of a sudden, you felt the floor rumbli om understand your feet, and when i stood up to see what it was, ke that. and shook! >> the richter scale to

5-point% tuesday. buildings in washington, d.c. felt the que,ncdi the white house. president obama was hundreds of [lepd ]

>> question, what is the tu clr weafter japan's earthquake? d its nuclear reactor horror and germany, uty and switzerland. they all declared they will build no more nuclear acrs. will the u.s. phase out nuclear? unedat wi not phase y. out nuclear. the plant in virginia survived th easily. generators went on, no problem. even three mile island, nody killed. there's some countries like russia that handle it horribly, and gore problems. they're green countries like the germans who give it up otrskethkoreans, the french, japanese, the americans, we depend on . do a good job with it. it's useful, it can be a prle buyodot ve it up unless you give up technology. >> determination to give it up one thing. but they're all going to phase it out. and unle ppln al retrain their appetite for oil, nuclear power will be around for a long time. anit into be part of the energy future inhi

country. >> okay. the winds blow! >> i cannot stress this highly enough. if you are in thojted path of this hurricane, you have to take precautions now. n'wa. n'dey. we all hope for the we have to be prepared for the worst. >> the total wealth of the eastern seaboard in the pathof the hurricane irene, amounts to, get this, $3 trillion. so says mark alexandery, chief economist of moody. question, on friday, president obama announced he will cut his vacation sht d return to washington, should -- question, should congress also do the same? not a week from tuesday, but th cing tuesday. >> no, there's no reason for congress to be -- congress just got out of town and all of a sudden everyone talked about getting it back! for wh en? eye t gog pass anything. what can they do? you want to put them in the -- maybe there's a populous case

for putting them in the path of thhurricane! no sense to have. >> when you have all of this -- >> points every agreed again. >> it's in a sitting we do not enncthappearance of vulnerability, if the congress is not here [everyone talking at once] and if the president he, somehow that establishes that -- >> congress needs to -- you ask people on the streets of america, they'll tell you republicans and democrats need tostop their partisan bickering and work together for the good of the country. >> i think in an emergency -- >> if they can't do that, they don't need to be back in emgency situation, i think the american people want to feel that their government is intact and in washington. [everyone talking at once] >> republicans and democrats can wander around with flashlights at the capitol. >> washington is not shin e gey that they demand. but calling that congress is not going to accomplish that. that super-committee that has to come up with the deal, i guess i'd like to e so phographs of them working!

>> president obama is coming back. >> he lives here. he's come back a day early. >> he was gog meback later in -- this coming week, about tuesday. >> didn't work that well, john. >> he lives over the store. >> it was disaster! a political disaster on martha's vineyard. him riding around on his bicycle. we've got earthquakes here, hurricanes, economic reports e teib a 'sup there partying? [everyone talking at once] >> not a disaster. >> president obama cald ba the hurricanes, that would make him an en issue fo, nglh dream! >> i have a dream that onday this nation will rise up, live out the true meaning of its creed. >> 48 arago this sunday, civil rights leader dr. martin luther king, jr. delivered the

famed "iavea eech at the lincoln memorial. 48 years later the official dedication of the new martin luerngjr. memorial. it will be the first major monument of a non-president on washington's national mall. e fo to create the memorial was 15 years in the making and will cost some $120 million in private donations. >> the memorial to dr. king is the first on our mall to celebrated a man of color, hope, anpeace. d you can see this location is powerful. >> the "i have a dream" speech was delivered almost 45 years ago, before america elected its first black president, barack obama. >> been a long time coming. but tonight, because of what did on this date in this election at this defining moment, change has come to america. >> but some believe that racial

equality still has yet to flower in the u.s. item, unemployment. white americans, 8.1%. black americans, 16.2%. item, netted wealth. white americans, $113,000. black americans, $5700. item, incarceration. of the 73% of white americans in the country, less than 1% are in jail. of the 14% of black americans in the country, nearly 5% are in jail. item, education. rate of college graduations for white americans, 60%. rate of college grad black americans, 40%. question, how old was martin luther king when he passed away? >> i think about 37, 38 years old. >> 39 years old. >> okay. >> 39 years old. >> did he -- i was at that speech, john. >> can he say some thing that led people to believe he was clairvoyant in the since he

thought or knew he was going to die. >> the last speech he gave, i might not get there with you -- >> what about that? what about that? >> he knew a big threat and there were people out to kill him so he had on quite a few reference and speeches. so that was his fierce urgency of now. he had to do get things done. >> people miss that about him. >> used to joke are his aides that he knew they would take a bullet for them. he said, don't worry, i'll give you a great eulogy. he talked about death a lot. >> that's something people miss is the tremendous physical courage to just keep going under the kind of threats he was under, with the fbi offering no help and in fact -- the opposite! so really an amazing -- >> somebody submitted and question. america has a black president, an african-american attorney general, a black supreme court justice, and has had an african-

american secretary of state. it is time to start focusing on statistics showing how blacks compared to white and instead look at why some blacks are so successful, why for others severe problems remain. so instead of looking at black progress interracially. we need to look intraracially. why do some blacks excel while others struggle? >> she's saying what -- number of other black folks have said, the gap between what -- blacks who are well off and those not doing well at all is now wider than the gap between blacks and whites. that's the big difference between now and dr. king's day and that's what drags down the overall statistics. >> why are some blacks doing well and other blacks not doing well? >> a number of reasons. some having to do with politics and government, others having to do with the social -- >> in a word, john, it is -- the collapse of the black family outside the black middle- class.

71% of african-american children are born out of wedlock predictions, pat and. >> for the first time the federal reserve will be a major issue in the political campaign because of ron paul and rick perry. >> will not help bankroll the convention in carolina because it's held in a city was the a single union hotel, and they're showing disappointment in the president. >> rich? >> if rick perry is the republican nominee, there will be an independent candidate in the race. >> claire sentence. >> contrary to call, i think sarah palin will not enter the race. >> the u.s. ddg growth rate will be below 2% for the next eight months. bye-bye!