from washington, "the mclaughlin group," the american original. for over two decades, the sharpest mi

issue one, traveling man! ♪ i'm a traveling man, made a lot of stops, all over the world. >> it is good to be back in scranton! >> traveling man and incumbent presidential candidate barack obama was on the road this week scranton, pennsylvania. mr. obama hit the road to whip up support for a cut in payroll taxes that funds social security and medicare. but the scranton trip was

widely regarded as a de facto campaign stop. pennsylvania is one of the 12 battleground states that are pivotal to winning the white house in 2012. pennsylvania, nevada, colorado, new mexico, iowa, wisconsin, michigan, ohio, ida, and new hampshire. why are those 12 states so important? all 12 are battlegrounds, which could go either to president obama or his republican challenger. since september, mr. in the state of california -- e diego, los angeles. those 12 battleground states and california collectively have 206 electoral college votes. nearly all of the 270 electoral college votes needed to win the presidency. in other words, the electoral

college trumps the popular vote, meaning you could lose the popular vote and still win the presidency! this happened 11 years ago, when the presidential race between george w. bush and al gore. gore won the popular vote! the votes cast by the american people. but mr. bush won the ege votes, question, will president have to consider a strategy of winning the presidency through the electoral college vote versus the popular vote? rich? >> perhaps eventually. but the big picture here, john, he's flat lined at 43% and gallop over the last three or four weeks. he's cratered among the working class and independents. he's lukewarm among hispanics and young voters. with that sort of configuration, he is not going to win in any shape or form. what he needs is tedly improving economic numbers, or some game changing event overseas, or a third-party

candidate from the center who will enable him to win without 50%. >> eleanor? >> i think demography is destiny. if you look at the electorates in 2012, there will be some 16 million more young people who tend to vote democratic, and the white working class which obama does not do well with, they're declining in numbers. and i think that map that you're looking at is expanded. you could probably throw in a state like georgia, because added minorities and young people are giving this president an opportunity in many places that democrats have traditionally not been able to play in. and if romney is the -- mitt romney is the republican, i don't know that he relates well to a lot of the electorat. and if it's newt gingrich, can forget independents in a lot of women. >> we're going to get the vote in those in a minute. friday's good jobs news -- >> the unemployment rate went down, and despite some strong

headwinds this year, the american economy has now e past 21 months in te sector a row. >> the month, november, is 8.6% roughly a half point drop from the october unemployment rate. and a new 140,000 jobs in the private sector were created last month. question, is this news as good as it sounds, tim? >> this is certain an asterisk, which is massive decrease in workforce participation. in other words, lots of people just aren't working anymore. maybe it's a baby boomers retiring, it's stay at home moms staying other or people giving up on jobs on but i do think that what matters electorally for obama is the trajectory of unemployment. in other words, if unemployment is 8% and on a steady downward tread by the election, i think he wins, even though 8% is horrible historically. i think if it's looking like

it's getting better, that no matter what, that's good news politically for obama. >> you agree? >> i agree with that. the key to victory is turnout. demographics are important. registration is important. but who -- what vote gets turned out. older folks vote more, twice as much as 30. obama mobilized the under-30 generation four years ago and has to do that again this year. hasn't begun yet. that have campus operations, but the economy has to be t now are you impressed by the numbers? >> i'm sure the white house is break eck out the champagne in the private offices. but they got to keep it going. [everyone talking at once] >> also one thing we haven't mentioned, people have to feel it in their homes are their kids sleeping in the basement instead of out working on his or her own. those kind of personal -- >> it gives the president some

credibility to say, we were in a terrible slump, it's getting better, it's going to take some time. if he can show some evidence the trend is going in the right direction, it gives him credibility to be out there, saying give me more time. >> it couldn't be too sure about the top line number. it is a factor of people leaving the labor force, and a lot of those people are discouraged and still don't have jobs. you look at the labor force participation rate,ites still awful. we've been stagnant over the last two years. that's one of reasons young people are not so excited about this guy anymore. he may be young and idealistic as every but if you don't have a job -- >> hold on! >> totally stagnant. >> is there also a christmas hires due to christmas shopping increase, and therefore it's a temporary -- part of the unemployment? >> no, it's not terrifically great news but it's good news, and it's really fascinating to watch the republicans on capitol hill try to say

something nice. they can't stand to give this president any credit. you almost get the feeling they're hoping for the economy to get worse! >> the problem is that obama promised so much. he said he was going to remake america. he said unemployment was going to be below 8%. if we had the same labor forced to that we had when obama came into the office, and the same number of people working as we do today, it would be 11%. >> okay! >> then they promise to get him elected and that's an issue the people can see the obstructionism going on. >> on the current economic picture -- >> item, u.s. retail buying up, purchases on the day after thanksgiving, black friday, reached an all-time record, $52.4 billion. item, u.s. auto sales up. november was the best month for sales of u.s. cars in two years. item, home improvement, up 3% from last year.

the second increase since 2006. question, if we are seeing signs of a real economic recovery, what does this mean for president obama's 2012 election chances going over this ground one more time? rich? >> it's very good for him, obviously. but john, with all due respect you have not mentioned the most important factor in the u.s. economy today, which is the euro crisis. which has a real potential to unspool the entire currency there, which would drag them into a horrific financial crisis p drag us into another recession. that is the most important story in the world today. >> coming up, by the way in a meet that will occur mid-week -- but there's already a staying power that has been introduced into that equation. >> but, there's not a staying power. there's economic figures you're showing there, what you are glossing over is that u.s. savings rate keeps dropebtednes keeps dropping. we're not building the foundation. of a strong economy. we're sending people out to the store to buy, creating the same

sort of problems we had before! [everyone talking at once] >> back in the picture in the european crisis. the banks are back in! and necessary that going to further resolution this coming week. >> doesn't get to the fundamental problems of having a single -- >> hold on! ! >> exit question, on a probability scale of 1 to 10, what is the likelihood that the u.s. unemployment rate will fall below 8% by election day, november 2012, 11 months from now? >> pretty unlikely because of the damper that europe will represent. >> eleanor? >> the administration has very marginal control over europe and setting aside europe is finally beginning to get a grip on what is happening. i think there's a at least 50% chance it can drift -- drop into the low -- yes. and i would say the other thing we haven't mentioned is the fight going on on capitol hill, which the white house is certainly winning.

cornering the republicans into being against a tax cut for working people, and they're trying to squirm out of that position. finally got the high grounds on a fight were the republicans. >> you have the impression the -- the public public has moved away from obama and recognize him as a international success but he's really not doing -- they've kind of written him off? >> no, i don't think they've written him off in part because the republicans aren't offering a great alternative. i think the question is, are you going to hold obama to what he promised he would be, what he had to promise he would be to win? or are you going to hold him against the alternative? if it's the former, he loses. >> people will hole him to improving the economy from that recession. we just pulling out of. i think that you were asking what scale zero to 10 chances of going below 8, 50-50. we have good news international actually. band-aid wall street thought it

was almost 500 point surge, just a band-aid and they're moving in the right direction p mainly to try to wall off their european crisis from our american and the rest of the world. it's going to be a step by step process. >> you remember shakespeare in the -- gross was in the -- >> ah, yes,. >> is there a ghost here, the ghost being the immense national indebtedness right now? >> we've got a national debt of $14.2 trillion. isn't this really kind of just peanuts in that bowl? >> i'm not a deficit hog, john. you know that. i'd like to see more indebtedness. >> how much of that 14.2 trillion did obama -- >> you're laughing! >> all of a sudden -- >> we're all -- [everyone talking at once] >> what do you think of that 14.2? >> we're spending more than we ever have before. >> who spent the money? >> everyone spent the money. bush spent too much, and then obama doubled down on it. we've had -- >> meaning what? [everyone talking at once]

>> is obama taking the rap for that imminence debt to the united states? >> yes, it's hurting him! >> will pay it back. debt is just department [everyone talking at once] >> how long will it take to issue two, newt rising! >> i want to be the nominee. i mean, it's very hard not to look at the recent polls and think that the odds are very high i'm going to be the nominee. >> newton leroy gingrich is now the 41er to represent the republican party as its presidential nominee. gingrich now leads former massachusetts governor mitt romney. gingrich, 26%. romney, 22%. gingrich is also the front- runner in the g.o.p.'s first contest. iowa, four weeks from this coming tuesday, january 27%, ro

south carolina, january ngngngng >> i don't mind telling you my strategy. it's very simple. it is performance if ideology. what you have today a radical who is incompetent. >> the radical being, of course, barack obama.  question, is the gingrich surge a flash in the pan, or has he elbowed out mitt romney as the g.o.p.'s nominee for president with the republican convention still almost, by the way, a year away? nine months away. i ask you. >> newt gingrich is a lobbyist who is paid to push big government policies, like freddie mac, ethanol subsidies, and drug subsidies. he also has had three different wives. and i think that this is a sort of thing that under the spotlight will cause much of his support to erode. i think he appeals because he

is so good at people imagining -- republicans love the idea of him debating barack obama. he would mop the floor with obama in a debate, i think. but i think under scrutiny -- >> i'll take that bet! >> i think he will fall. >> you think he mops the floor with obama? >> oh, yes. obama would have to change the rules on the debate. >> remember, obama is really good with the rope and dope, and newt has a habit -- >> what is the rope and dope? >> that's when you let your opponent defeat himself. >> how? >> by exhausting himself. >> how? who is on the road? >> muhammad ali. >> opponents. >> and he lets -- lets the opponent punch him and keep punching him. he ties himself up. and then ali gets off the ropes and he attacks the opponent, and he beats the opponent. >> exactly. >> without a fight. >> that's right. and that's something that --

>> alive-foreman, wasn't it. >> yes, but also with obama on several occasions in his last campaign, when we thought he was on the rope, suddenly he came back and opponent exhausted himself. gingrich has a habits of losing his discipline. he has been -- pretty good at it on the whole so far of this year. but what is intriguing to me is this shows kind of a real de photo for the tea party because they've always been the anti- insider, anti-lobbyist, let's clean out the -- clean house -- [everyone talking at once] >> at newt incorporated! >> newt gingrich left public office 12 years ago. he served 20 years in the u.s. house of representatives, four years as the speaker of the house. the former speaker has become almost a one-man private sector business empire. one, health care think tank, supported by health insurance companies generating $37 million.

two, professional speaking, earning $60,000 and up per engagement. three, documentary film company, historical situation. four, literary agency representing authors other than himself, including former pennsylvania senator rick santorum. five, conservative issue advocacy. calling for increased oil drilling in the united states and ending obama care. $52million generated. six, political consulting company, serving the pharmaceutical industry and freddie mac, the federal home loan mortgage corporation. overall, says mr. gingrich's attorney, in the past 10 years the gingrich operations have generated revenues of close to $100 million. gingrich says these earnings are not due to political cronyism, they are due to free enterprise.

that's an incomplete list, by the way, of his achievement. read forbes. and his total worth today is $6.7 million. eleanor. >> i don't know that republican primary voters are going to hold it against him that he got rich and that he learned to work the system. maybe they don't know about all of this. but i don't think this is going to be disqualifying. what newt gingrich has that mitt romney doesn't have is passion. and passion is what wins primaries. and romney is running in a race where people really don't want to vote for him. and newt is newt. he's grandiose, he is -- mercurial, he could self- implode a week from now, but he's been pretty disciplined since the tiffany episode and the cruise, and he has been very shrewd in how he is presenting himself. so he could at least be the foil against romney, and the first time in this campaign romney is looking a little bit

less inevitable. >> eleanor has hit it on the head. >> thank you. >> if people believe he is a combative, true blue conservative, it will trump all this newt stuff. the problem is the horseman of newt's self-destruction, just a few paces behind him, the ego, the intellectual grandiosity, and you can already hear them catching up to newt. but let's be frank here, as newt would say, frankly he has a pretty good chance to win iowa. if he wins iowa, highway has a pretty good chance to win -- separation in iowa. >> but drink by passion. >> in florida. >> if he wins south carolina, he is set for a heck of a run. >> this is an implicit rejection of obama, been there, done that with obama? [everyone talking at once]of him, yes. but i think if they could look at the facts that newt gingrich doesn't act like a presidential candidate, in a lot of ways, they would be less positive on him. what he doesn't do in a debate

hides the fact that right now i don't think he's in iowa today. i have seen -- he's on this book tour. he goes own cruise snooze the polls have not recovered despite his obvious performance with tea and ozzie and bali, and -- remember those other countries two weeks ago? >> obama hasn't kept -- >> nowhere in the polls. >> obama hasn't campaigned here yet. he's been to fund-raisers but hasn't gone out -- >> the american people are not that trustful of trade. that may be the answer. >> americans don't care much about foreign policy right now and that includes trade. >> he's also playing marines in australia. interesting development. >> we care about foreign policy. [everyone talking at once] >> there's also the bomb. they have to consider the american people when they vote, how is this individual going to handle the bomb? are they going to trust obama? are they going to trust -- trust gingrich? >> gingrich, that's the question! >> you think so? >> gingrich could have -- real

temperament problem. they demonstrated that as speaker. he had a personal meltdown and was deep sixed. every day from now on he'll have to show he's different, not just say it, show he's more mature and more -- >> it was the queue, the affair, everything. you read about it and it's hair- raising. >> who did? >> newt gingrich had a personal meltdown as speaker of the house. [everyone talking at once] >> related to his personal life? >> the republicans did not trust that he could be relied on to hold the same position on wednesday, that he had held on monday. they could not count on fact issue three, bad ads. >> my opponent's campaign announced earlier this month that they want to turn the page on the discussion of our economy so they can spend the final weeks of this election attacking me instead. [boo] don't boo now, just vote!

senator mccain's campaign actually said, and i quote, if we keep talking about the economy, we're going to lose. >> those words were uttered october 16, 2008, three weeks before election day, november 4, 2008, and election which delivered the u.s. presidency to then u.s. senator barack obama. during that new hampshire address, mr. obama declared that republican presidential candidate john mccain did not want to focus his campaign on the economy, then in meltdown in the gw bush administration. rather, he would focus on obama and his short comings. that was 2008. it is now 2011. 11 months away from the 2012 presidential election next november. here is how those same new

hampshire remarks were presented in a political advertisement produced by republican presidential candidate mitt romney last month of this year. >> we keep talking about the economy, we're going to lose. >> supporters of mr. bomb charge romney with falsification of the obama quote. ram knee says the ad is fair game. >> said there was no hidden effort on the part of our campaign. it was in stepped to point out what is sauce for the goose is now sauce for the gander. and he spoke about the economy being a huge burden for john mccain. this ad points out, guess what, it's now your turn, lines used now used on you. >> what do you think of the utilization of the language in the first ad and the second ad, by romney? >> i think it's reprehensible to use the quote out of context, but probably work for romney in the primaries because he's going after voters who

hate obama. and they're going to be a lot less offended than the swing voters. >> this is not a misusage. this is a deliberate falsification. >> you got it. >> deliberate is the keyword, john. they did this exactly to elicit the effect that clarence alludes to, which is if the obama campaign and the media say you're so terrible, mean so the president, they think the republican voters will like to hear this. but this is classic too clever by half kind of tactic. >> true clever or gets into a new area which is falsification? >> there's nothing new about -- [everyone talking at once] >> then the mccain bite is put in the mouth of obama as obama originating it! >> everything goes by so fast that he is just bet that people really are not going to hold this against him. besides, there's so much to hold against romney when it comes to switching positions and why is he always seeming so

out of breath? he's always like in a big hurry to get to the end of the sentence. >> i hope this mitt romney focuses his attention on politicians misleading like obama's series of false hoods over the last three it. closer to the bone. the democrat tick national committee tv ad engine fired back for mr. obama. dnc released this ad portraying governor romney as a compulsive flip-flopper. >> the creator of running for offers for pete's sake, comes the story of two men trapped in one body, mitt versus mitt. >> i will preserve and protect a woman's right to choose, the right next step is to see if row overturned. >> is he willing to say anything? >> clever ad but did the dnc violate the rule, never interfere with the enemy in the process of destroying himself? >> no, this is a -- common sense play. they're desperate to run against anyone except romney so they want to hurt him as much

as possible. and if romney is the nominee, at least you've softened them up. >> what do you think about that? >> the bad remind me of a ad ron paul put out, similar attack against romney for being two sided. >> newt gingrich is telling his people not to attack romney, and i think the dnc, democrats, figure if newt is not going to do it, they better start. and i think the ad is very clever. and at least he is smiling! whatever side you're on. >> the misusage deliberately falsification of his -- [everyone talking at once] >> try attack mitt for taking -- >> yeah, yeah. okay. so the point -- >> i think that rich is right, that knute would be a better candidate from obama's perspective goin forced prediction, marijuana will be broadly legalized by 2020. >> yes, it will. >> if not before.

>> yes, it will, even quicker if you had a gary johnson as president. >> medicinessal use, yes. for everything -- >> that's what it is now. >> not so sure. not nationally. no, it's not. >> that's all you can say? >> federal law -- a broadly legalized nationally. bye-bye!