"newsline." \s the economy is growing faster than china's but economists are baffled by the numbers. . oil revenue down, food prices up. finding it hard to swallow. and the new year backlash. they have had enough. >> it's too crowded. >> hello, you're watching "asia biz forecast." we begin with a tale of two economic giants, china and

india. surprising news on who is growing the fastest. economists had been predicting that next year the takeover from china as the pace setter in global growth but according to officials their economy is r already expanding at a faster rate than china's. officials in beijing also released a batch of new numbers. trade data for january disappointed analysts. many expected robust from the united states and other markets to push experts higher. but they fell by 3% from year earlier and imports tumbled by 19% on slumping demand from coil, oil and other commodities. next came the consumer price index that showed prices ticked up .8%, the slowest pace in over five years and producer prices slumped by more than 4%. economists interpret the numbers as evidence of weak demand. local governments in china have

published growth targets. most of these figures are lower than last year's. for example, two provinces cut targets to the 6% level this year. the city of beijing lowered its target by around 7%. china's financial hub shanghai broke with tradition and didn't publish a target. city officials said only that they will maintain stable economic growth and push ahead with structural reforms. the chinese government plans to announce its growth target for this year during the national people's congress next month. many analysts expect the target of around 7%, down from last year's 7.5%. over in india, the narrative has taken an interesting twist. government officials have taken

a new look at the economy using their new calculation method. their result suggests growth is 7.5% in the final of last year. that compares to 7.3% during the same period. if the numbers are correct, india has taken the lead. officials in new delawai have t an a look at past levels. >> the growth rate in gdp during 2014 was 7.4% as compared to the growth rate of 6.9% during. >> there are two major changes in the way india's economic growth is measured. officials moved the base year from fiscal 2004 to 2011. and while the used to base calculations on production

costs, they now use market prices. the government. says the new system is more in line with international standards and they say it provides a clearer picture of the economy. but the governor of the reserve bank of india isn't so sure. he said it would be in his words, quote, premature to take a strong view. the central bank's growth. calls for a growth of 5.5% for fiscal 2014. officials plan to stick to the previous method when deciding monetary policy. i earlier talked to the chief economist at yes bank to get a better idea of the economy. i started by asking if the gdp calculated under the new method matches results from her data. >> the economy is improving.

it's at the stage of bottoming out. there are high frequency of better improvement in the economy compared to the previous year where as the newly calculated gdp rose from a different platform. i think there's some consistency abroad that the economy has bottomed out and it is set to improve. i think india will be the fastest growing economy for a couple years. >> so do you think the new calculated figure will effect central bank's monetary policy? if it's 7.5%, it seems there's smaller need for them to lower rates to prop up the economy. >> it will be evaluated and

examined at which point for the means for policy easing is so we actually have not changed our monetary easing is concerned. we still anticipate another 50 basis points in 2015. and the also with this market perception of monetary easing magnitude. >> with your set of data, how do you evaluate the state of the real economy for the 2014? >> i think 2014 was a year where things were still slowing. 2014 we had lackluster mining. we did not have yet a recovery led by investment, which was predominantly consumption.

so 2014 was relatively a softer economy whereas 2015 is going to be much better phase in terms of growth profits because it's the easy of monetary policy and also the focused attention on bringing an investment recovery. >> that was the chief economist at yes bank india. we're staying in thailand. the prime minister is busy working on ways to build the economy in a faster track. he's been talking to an important business partner. their first dialogue last may.

the leaders agreed japanese investors will continue to play a key role not just in thailand but also to promote growth in. the wider region. >> translator: we want to furth furtherer strengthen economic cooperation and efforts to solve challen challenges in the region. >> thailand's ageing railway system is one area of cooperation. transport ministers from both sides says they will work together on a new rail expanding the country. the general had words of assurance for japanese business leaders. some remain concerned about political instability in thailand. he would begin new work on a new constitution and held parliamentary elections by next year. the thai and japanese leaders also touched on three-way cooperation with myanmar's government. they want to develop the economic zone in southern

myanmar. it would cover 250 square kilometers. the idea is to create a port and industrial hop. japan will send exports to carry out a feasibility study. the prime minister says thailand is a natural launching pad for regional investment and development aid. >> translator: this is about the region. if japan provides for support for thailand and other nations, all of us including those countries that don't have a lot of financial resources can develop together. falling oil prices are taking their toll on energy exporting countries. one of them is the second largest oil and gas producer in southeast asia and the focus of our report this week. officials released gdp results on thursday.

data shows the economy grew at a respe respectable pace last year. the problem is what lies ahead. malaysia's economy grew faster than expected. the central bank said gross domestic product rose 5.8% in the last three months of 2014. stand i standing by spending supported that growth. private consumption grew 8% while investment rose more than 10%. a breakdown by sectors shows mining and construction are both expanding at a brisk pace. the economy grew by 6%. despite that result, the chaos in the oil market is throwing a dark shadow over 2015. the government last month revised its growth forecast. it's trimmed half a point from earlier projection of around 6%. falling oil prices is painted a

slippery slope. when oil prices drop, government revenues fall putting fiscal budg budgets under stress. at the same time, a widened fiscal budget deficit puts pressure on the currency. it fell close to a six-year low this week. what it all means for ordinary malaysians. >> reporter: cueing up to cross, traffic slows to a crawl as citizens go shopping. everything is a bargain for day trippers crossing the causeway. this shopping mall is one popular destination. some items are selling at half the price of singapore. thanks to the influx of cross border customers, more operators say sales jump 15% in january. >> i think the things here are

cheaper. >> very happy and can shop a lot and buy a lot. >> i think we're benefitting. at this rate, we can buy more stuff. >> reporter: for local shoppers, there's far less to celebrate. the markets have trigger inflation. prices rose 3.2% in 2014, up more than a point from the previous year. and people are paying more for daily necessities. this stand offers a typical breakfast. one plate costs a little over $1. but they are struggling to keep the price down. she's putting less rice in the bowl. she's also adding less meat. >> translator: if it continues to fall, we won't be.

able to survive. i'm so worried about the rise in food prices. >> reporter: falling oil prices aren't just fueling inflation. they are also hurting the national finances. malaysia is the second largest oil and gas exporter in southeast asia. the government depends on energy revenue to fund about a third of its annual budget. >> translator: the fall in oil prices leads directly to a decrease in our budget revenues. >> reporter: the government's 2015 budget by $1.5 billion. that's about 2% of the outlay proposed last october. the revised budget assumes an average oil price of $55 a

barrel. the previous budget was expecting $100 a barrel. with revenue drowning away, the fiscal deficit has grown to 3.2% of gdp. the government is scrambling for income. in april goods and services tax, a type of consumer tax. the 6% levee is expected to bring in revenue of $600 million, but it also means a heavier burden for malaysian consumers. the tax hike is likely to hit consumer spending, which could put further stress on the overall economy. with ail prices expected to remain at a relatively low levels, 2015 is is shaping up to be a challenging year for the malaysian policymakers.

nhk world. >> for more on the malaysian economy we turn to the chief strategist at mutual who is standing by in our office. great to have you. malaysia's finances are set to be one of the worst in southeast asia. can you explain what led to the fiscal situation the country is in now? >> well, our government has been running for 17 consecutive fiscal deficits and actually it's part of post-asian crisis. the deficit began from 1999 and continue until today. one of the major reasons that why our government is running in fiscal deficit is because since

2000 the government has been increasingly employing civil servants at the rate of almost 35 to 38,000 people per year. this definitely has increased the fixed cost of the government expenditure, and with that actually in the year 2012, april s&p has au lotted the government if we don't reduce our fiscal deficit and also cut in subsidies then we may face a risk of being downgraded. >> what are some of the fiscal structural problems you see in malaysia's that's leading to the country producing deficits every year? >>. there are two major reasons for our fiscal deficit.

one, of course, we have a very high percentage of operating expenditure. in fact, it accounts for about 90% of our revenue it operating expenditure and of which practically one quarter of it goes to the civil servants' salaries and another to the subsidies. all this add up to practically accounts for one-third of our operating expenditure. as for the global oil price, our government revenue practically relies a lot on the oil price. about 30% of our revenue is oil related is either true dividends paid by the national oil company.

because of that, we cut oil price definitely. we are facing a little bit challenges in in increasing our revenue, which will further worsen our deficit. . >> where do you think the global oil price will be this year and how do you think that will affect malaysia's economy? >> well, i'm a little bit more on the optimistic side that i believe the average oil price on the wti basis this year probably was hovering around $70 a barrel. if that being the case and the government recently revised the fiscal budget with assumption of oil price at $50 a barrel, so this higher oil price would

boost our government revenue and in turn if they maintain the revised expenditure, we should be able to achieve a fiscal deficit of around 3% of maybe even slightly lower. >> thank you very much. >> thank you. the most important holiday in the chinese calendar are just around the corner and people are busy stocking up on supplies. millions of these shoppers are heading for hong kong. mainland chinese believe they can find better quality goods in the territory. retailers stand to prompt profit, but not everyone is happy about the tidal wave of terrorists. our reporter has more. >> reporter: the streets of hong kong, they are calling for mainland visitors. one group broke into a shopping mall popular with mainland terrorists.

police used pepper spray to control the unrest. locals complained the area has been overwhelmed by mainland shoppers and their baggage. the nearby bus station is another point of friction. it's a major departure in arrival point for mainland visitorers. >> translator: mainlanders are noisy and rude. the bus seems to be serving them only. this is a bus, not a truck for their goods. >> reporter: dodging bags and squeezing on to buss are not the only grouch from local residents. they say it can be hard buying daily goods. >> translator: people at the stores would rather assist the mainland customers. they often ignore us. >> reporter: the main border crossing where mainlanders wait to go through customs check point. these are the best of times. these lines will soon be even

longer. officials expect 250,000 people a day to pass through during the new year holiday. last year more than 20 million people visited the territory during january and february. that's three times hong kong's population. one to stop is this used to be a quiet rural town. now it's a major shopping destination. the shops are stocks with confection nar, cookies and other daily necessities. they are no cheapen than on the mainland so why travel all this way to buy bay be formula and diapers. >> the quality of food here is much better. they have foreign brand goods. i don't have confidence in domestic products. >> translator: they don't sell fake goods here.

>> reporter: when they are done shopping, the visitors squat on the pavement to pack their bags and another cause of frustration. >> translator: it's too crowded. i can only walk on the street. do they expect hong kongers to fly? >> translator: hong kong used to be clean, but it's messy now. >> reporter:. mainland arrivals began in 2003 when hong kong eased regulations to ease the economy. it allows mainlanders from 49 cities to visit hong kong on an individual basis. the mainlanders have spending good money. they account for over 20% of retail sales in 2013. but the flood of visitors is posing a new challenge for hong kong authorities. >> translator: we know that the overwhelming number of mainlanders has brought inconvenience to local

residents, but we can't allow demonstrators to express their discontent by storming shopping malls and disrupting the social order. >> reporter: hong kong officials are working ones to divert from crowded areas. one is to build a shopping center near the border. but building new malls in hong kong doesn't address the root cause of the issue. people's lack of trust of goods being sold in china. until changes are made, the sentiment of crossing the border is likely to continue. julian luk, nhk world, hong kong. the year of the goat starts february 19th and tensions are building. protesters were organizing another demonstration for sunday. let's take a look at other news making headlines around the

region. regulators in china have slapped a u.s. maker with a record fine. >> authorities say qualcomm violated laws and it's the largest ever imposed on a foreign firm in china. regulators say they broke a law on uncompetitive pricing and say it charged chinese cell phone manufacturers unfair licensing fees for communications technology. officials say they are disappointed with the decision, but they will not contest the fine. official says they will change the way their company does business in china. two southeast asian neighbors are teaming up on autos. the malaysian prime minister announced the plan after meeting with the indonesian president. the project calls for proon to

to manufacture cars in indonesia. their share fell because of competition from overseas rivals. indonesia's auto market is the biggest producing cars in indonesia could breathe new life into proton's business. honda is revving up for its first formula one in seven years and taking rawraps off its new race car. honda has joined hands with mcclairn. ex executives says their engine can deliver 600 horse power and say the car features ecofriendly technologies required under f1 regulations. these include a hybrid system that collects the heat from the exhaust. >> translator: pursuing ecofriendly technology and challenging ourselves to deliver the very best in energy management will help honda

develop superior technologies in the future. japanese precision equipment maker canon plans to buy a swedish maker of security cameras for about $2.8 billion. canon executives say they will launch a friendly takeover bid for access and plan to acquire all of its shares. axis is the largest maker of surveillance cameras. sales of canon's digital cameras have declined as more people use smart phones. executives hope to boost canon's bottom line by strengthening its surveillance product business. >> before we go, a quick look at what's happening in the week ahead. monday brings fourth quarter gdp figures for japan and thailand. japan's economy contracted for two straight quarters. analysts are expecting a rebound this time forecasting growth of

3% in the october to december period. thailand's economy fell into a slump last year as well. political chaos and the ending of an auto subsidy did most of the damage. investors will be looking for a turn around in the final quarter. china releases home sales data for 70 major cities. property investment has been a driving force for growth in recent years. prices started heading down last year and have now begcome a majr concern for the economy. on the same day, bank of korea holds a meeting. fourth quarter growth shrank. they wait to see if the central bank joins the global trend of easing. bank of japan holds a two-day policy meeting. they are pumping huge amounts of money into the market to trigger inflation. but falling oil prices could undermine that effort. the governor will be speaking on wednesday. that's all for this week on "asia biz forecast".

thanks for watching, have a great weekend. steves: the dramatic rock of cashel

is one of ireland's most evocative sites. this was the seat of ancient irish kings for seven centuries. st. patrick baptized king aengus here in about 450 a.d. in around 1100, an irish king gave cashel to the church, and it grew to become the ecclesiastical capital of all ireland. 800 years ago, this monastic community was just a chapel and a round tower standing high on this bluff. it looked out then, as it does today, over the plain of tipperary, called the golden vale because its rich soil makes it ireland's best farmland. on this historic rock, you stroll among these ruins in the footsteps of st. patrick, and wandering through my favorite celtic cross graveyard, i feel the soul of ireland.

>> coming up next on "jubilee:" the best of the 2013 festival of the bluegrass 40th anniversary. feuring the masters of bluegrass: ♪ roll in my sweet baby's arms roll in my sweet baby's arms lay around the shack till the mail train gets back and roll in my sweet baby's arms ♪ >> russell moore & iiird tyme out ♪ john do you take mary for your wife and he said oh yes lord for the st of my life and the preacher said mary do you love this man in front of you and she said oh yes lord forever i'll be true ♪ >> the boxcars ♪ the girl i love don't pay me no mind