tonight on "nightline" -- wild weather -- storms, blizzards, delays. the weather is turning wild for christmas. but what if you could predict what the weather would do months in advance? "nightline" meets the weather detectives. viral ads -- produced for next to nothing and posted on the internet where they brought tens of millions of views. look out, madison avenue. how commando online advertising is giving the little guy a leg up. and a christmas story -- it's the iconic holiday film shown round the clock on christmas. so where is ralphie now? it's tonight's "sign of the times."

good evening. we're going to begin tonight with the weather outside. the tricky business of predicting just what it will be like tomorrow. not to mention next week. or even next month. satellite radar computer models and centuries of precedent are just a few of the tools the modern day forecaster has at hand. but would you depend on a long-range forecast to plan a wedding or plant a crop? tonight, weather men and women who claim to have found more ways to be more right more often. >> reporter: the way the weather's been behaving lately, it's hard to believe that winter just starts tonight. >> this is hotel heathrow we call it. >> reporter: in europe and the united kingdom, holiday travelers are stranded due to thousands of flight cancellations. as airports struggle to cope

with snow and ice. >> the flight was canceled again this morning. >> reporter: california's being lashed by storms that could drop up to ten inches of rain on the coast. and have already dumped up to 9 feet of snow in the mountains. >> it's getting worse by the minute. >> reporter: last week, the midwest was digging out from blizzards that dropped so much snow the metrodome in minneapolis collapsed under the weight. half the country was plunged into freezing temperatures. back at the beginning of december, long before any of this wacky weather was showing up on any radar screen, being an u weather chief's long-range forecaster was predicting storms that would dump snow on the eastern half of the united states. and temperatures cold enough to make it stick around through christmas. >> here's the latest computer model that just came out for forecasts for the white christmas, you see in the blue and white there. this forecast was put out over a

week ago for the same thing. this was my forecast. actually, it was actually put out even before that. so the computer model is actually moving towards our forecast. which gives us greater confidence. >> reporter: forecasting is big business. companies pay big green to know about all that white. so are farmers and brides who are among those buying 3 million copies a year of "the old farmer's almanac." it's been predicting the weather for 219 years. >> ours is the oldest continuously published period call in north america and by virtue of its popularity, we can only guess it's the most accurate, most reliable, most entertaining. >> reporter: janice stillman is only the almanac's 13th editor. at their offices in dublin, new hampshire, she shows us the very first edition. definitely not under glass. and well thumbed. >> this is 1793 is the first edition. okay? it was produced in 1792.

>> reporter: so this is the first one. >> as you can see, too, it's original paper with original notations made on it. >> reporter: received july 31st. number one. it's a compinidium of useful facts and figures. ocean tides. poetry. christmas day will feel caribbean. and, of course, a year's worth of weather region by region. it will put together in one year's time, okay, and so our weather forecasts, though, which are contained in every old farmer's almanac are predicted approximately 18 months in advance. >> reporter: how can you predict 18 months in advance? the weather man on tv can barely tell us what's right for tomorrow. >> well, we use three scientific disciplines. we use solar science, which is the study of the activity on the sun. and in particular, the sun spots. we use climatology which is the study of prevailing conditions over time. and we're talking decades,

centuries and even longer. and we use meteorologist which is the study of the atmosphere and the os lations and the ocean temperature and such as that. >> reporter: all put together using a secret formula which the almanac keeps locked in a black box. >> this is it. i keep it here. nobody would ever think to look for it here i wouldn't think. >> reporter: it's kept in the museum-like office of eder it emeritus who's uncle bought the almanac in 1839. it's like the secret recipe? >> exactly. >> reporter: yes, the almanac has a meteorologist and computers and a website too. so there is real science that goes -- >> oh, absolutely, oh, definitely, yes, yeah. more and more certainly with more recent editions. >> reporter: all working to help the almanac keep up what it boasts is an 80% rate of accuracy. some of it seems so general that it -- you know, who doesn't know that in this part of the country in new england in december there

are going to be snowy periods? >> well, you know, certainly, i mean, snow could occur at anytime. but our forecasts are sort of deviations from the norm. and then when you get down to the specific, you're talking about, okay, in this region, over this period of time, we expect these events to occur. but it's kind of a broad stroke forecast for the region. for that period of time. >> reporter: but you have meteorologists who say they can't predict the weather seven days in advance. how do you do it 18 months in advance? >> well, with luck, a lot of study and good faith. >> reporter: luck and faith and secret formulas are not good enough for some in the scientific community. >> as i like to put it, you know, the blind squirrel finds a nut too. >> reporter: paul knight, who lectured on meteorology at penn state, says the ability to predict weather that far into the future is zero. >> if they're claiming 80%

accuracy, if you just go by climatology, you're going to be right probably 60% or 70% of the time. so where they're claiming any skill isn't on those odd events that they kind of think they can forecast but there's no proven method that they have. >> we don't say we're 80% accurate all the time. it varies. >> reporter: it varied hugely last winter when that big storm buried the east coast. >> to be sure, sometimes our forecasts are exactly spot on, right down to the blizzard and the flake. >> reporter: but last winter, when baltimore and washington was paralyzed, what did you say? >> we did not expect there to be above normal snow conditions there, exactly right. >> reporter: but in the world of legend and tradition and icon, the old farmer's almanac is tops. receiving kudos from those farmers and brides. more than anything else, it endures as a piece of our past and strives to live up to its motto. >> subscribe and endeavor to be

useful with a pleasant degree of human with every issue. >> reporter: it sounds like a weather forecast. being an u weather says there's going to be snow in about 50% of the country on christmas day. do you agree? >> that's entirely possible. >> reporter: way to hedge your bets there. this is vicki mabrey for "nightline" in dublin, new hampshire. >> well, let's hope so. the old farmer's almanac. thanks to victory mabry for that report. and when we come back, look out, madison avenue. online advertisers are changing the game and the economics of reeling in an audience. /ç/ç/ç/ç/ç/ç/ç/ç/ç/ç/ç/ç/ç/ç/ç/ç ooh, a brainteaser. how can expedia now save me even more on my hotel? well, hotels know they can't fill every room every day. like this one. and this one. and oops, my bad. so, they give expedia ginormous discounts with these:

unpublished rates. which means i get an even more rockin' hotel, for less. my brain didn't even break a sweat. where you book matters. expedia. where you book matters. expedia. [scraping] [piano keys banging] [scraping] [horns honking] with deposits in yur engine,, it can feel like something's holdin your car back. let me guess, 16. [laughing] yeeah. that' why ther's castrol gtx... with our most powerful deposit fighting ingredient ever. castrol gtx exceeds the toughest new industry standard. get castrol gtx.ts hold your car back./ ♪ there are no sick days. vicks dayquil defeats 5 cold and flu symptoms. ♪ [ snoring ] [ male announcer ] in the nfl, you can't win tomorrow

if a cold keeps you up tonight. vicks nyquil cold and flu. the nighttime sniffling, sneezing, coughing, aching, fever, best sleep you ever got with a cold...medicine. 25% of the world's food supply is lost to spoilage. that's 458 billion dollars worth every year. on a smarter planet, we're building intelligence into physical things. so we can know how far our food's traveled... monitor temperature all the way to the market... and know it got to the table fresh. it's already happening in places like canada, norway and vietnam. when we make food smarter, we make it safer. that's what i'm working on. i'm an ibmer. let's build a smarter planet.

it costs $2.7 million to buy 30 seconds of ad time during this year's super bowl. almost as high stakes as their football match itself. that kind of advertising is simply off-limits for most companies out there. but before long, the rise of

online guerilla ad strategies most companies may no longer be after that kind of advertising anyway. here's brian rooney with our report. >> reporter: this is a popular video on youtube featuring a giant human tongue as a dirty football player. now, the funny thing about it is not just that it's funny. but also that this is an advertisement you can see only on the internet for a product you can pretty much buy only online. >> out cold, out cold! >> did you know 90% of bad breath comes from a dirty tongue? >> reporter: the ora brush videos have an enormous following on youtube. more than 30 million viewings so far. >> 'tis i, morgan, the rra brush tongue. >> reporter: a hero not only in the fight against bad breath but in the struggle for the little guys of business to grow and thrive against corporate giants. >> what are we talking about? >> we're talking about you. we're talking about bad breath. >> reporter: the product is a

little plastic brush designed to scrub and scrape the tongue. removing odor-causing bacteria and debris. the chief marketing officer is jeff harmon, whose degree from brigham young university barely has dry ink. >> i often say, a lot of the things i'm doing for work right now, i learned while i wasn't paying attention in class. >> reporter: but we're getting a little ahead of ourselves. the ora brush was invented by this man, robert wagstaff, known as dr. bob, a retired food business executive who thought he could conquer bad breath. >> these are all models and incarnations you've made tinkering here in your basement? >> yes. >> reporter: he refined the ora brush until it was ready to sell. >> only it didn't. we did an ad commercial. yep. >> reporter: nothing? >> nothing. >> reporter: he tried to take it direct to retail. >> we actually put it in stores and stand and watch people and they would walk right by it just like it wasn't even there. >> reporter: almost as a last effort, he took his problem to a marketing class here at brigham

young university in provo and they pretty much dismissed selling the ora brush online. >> they said only 8% of people that want a product like this will even buy it on the internet so don't focus online. and i rose my hand and said, why wouldn't you focus on that 8%? that's still a huge market. >> so two days later, he was in our home here upstairs. and sitting there around the table, kitchen table, telling me how he could, on youtube, could sell this product. >> reporter: harmon recruited a friend of his to be the company spokesperson. >> i'm not so much afraid of me having bad breath. i'm afraid of other people having bad breath. >> reporter: they shot this commercial for just $500 and put it on youtube. >> use it in the morning. it eliminates morning breath. fresh breath all day. and then use it at night right before bed. you know what i'm talking about. >> you can click -- >> reporter: so jeff harmon was convinced of two things --

youtube is the path to success. and you have to make people laugh. >> a tongue scraper? that's like trying to clean your carpet with a snow shovel. >> we're in a day and age now where if you don't want to watch an advertisement, you don't have to watch advertisements. >> reporter: you had to make a commercial that people actually wanted to go look it up and see it. >> kind of, yeah. >> reporter: not only not skip over it, but go find it. >> yeah. >> reporter: and that's where morgan the dirty tongue came into the act. recently, they were shooting a spot in which morgan looks for a job. >> i think you'd be surprised how easily i can get a job interview when i'm toting one of these. >> reporter: why does this gig work so well for selling -- >> okay, so, when we designed the character of morgan, it's charlie brown. it's an everyday guy. that does everyday things. but nothing really works out for him. ♪ party every day >> reporter: harmon says they post a new video every week to build loyalty and create

interaction. for instance, click and get your first ora brush free. and finally, they let people post comments, almost like it's the miley cyrus fan club. >> this works amazing. it gets all that nasty stuff off your tongue. >> tasty. >> reporter: they also have a bad breath app on the iphone. >> press the button and i'll hold it up to your mouth and you can just breathe into it. blow. >> nasty breath. you're out of the game. >> sorry. if we're average, we'll stay on this line. >> reporter: this gets to how harmon learned to do it. back back when he was surfing his laptop instead of paying attention in class. >> i was reading blogs. i was reading all face book and inside facebook and all these different blogs. >> reporter: what he does now is not think like a marketing major but an internet user. now the company has inquiries from around the world. australia, japan.

[ speaking foreign language ] walmart is interested. harmon has been back to school already to talk to his old class. but they don't teach internet marketing in school. this stuff is moving so fast it's virtually unteachable? >> yeah, so basically if you made a class about internet marketing, every semester the entire text would change. you can't write a textbook about it. >> reporter: the madison avenue guys you think don't understand the internet and youtube? >> not yet. they're trying. but we're a ways ahead. >> this girl's on board. >> reporter: since bob wagstaff visited that marketing class, more than 1 million of these $5 brushes have sold. no television, no newspaper, just the internet. you're making this up as you go along. >> that's our advantage. that's why we can win. >> reporter: it also seems to help if you have a guy willing to play a human tongue. >> touche. >> reporter: this is brian rooney for "nightline" in provo, utah. >> nice tongue. thanks to brian rooney for that

report. while up next -- >> you'll shoot your eye out, kid. merry christmas. >> it's the simple story of a boy who just wanted a bb gun, no matter what all the adults said. but where is little ralphie from "a christmas story" now? ♪ who's born to care this life was protected... ♪ seems you've always been right there ♪ this life was saved... ♪ soothing sadness ♪ healing pain and this life # was made easier... ♪ making smiles appear again because of this life. nursing. at johnson & johnson, we salute all those who hoose the life... that makes a difference. ♪ you're a nurse ♪ you make a difference

if you live for performance, upgrade to castrol edge advanced synthetic oil. with eight times better wear protection than mobil 1. castrol edge. it's more than just oil. it's liquid engineering.

there's the profanity spewing father and his nemesis, the basement furnace. there's the little brother and the sneering school bully. the prized holiday turkey.

the center of it all is ralphie, the boy who just wants a bb gun. today, he's all grown up. for neal karlinsky, that is a "sign of the times." >> reporter: whether you celebrate christmas or not, there are a few movies as celebrated during the holidays as this one. >> what do you want for christmas, little boy? >> reporter: "a christmas story" has become the eggnog of cinema. >> red ryder 200 shot range model air rifle. >> you'll shoot your eye out, kid. ho, ho, ho. >> no! >> reporter: most know him as ralphie, the little blonde boy with thing about eyes and wide expression, forever linked to the role of a kid who forever wants a bb gun for christmas. you wanted a bb gun or not so much? >> as a kid, i did have a bb gun. i had a daisy pow. >> reporter: today, ralphie is

all grown up. his name is peter billingsley. are you surprised that people still recognize you and come up to you for that role? i watched someone out front come up to you. >> no, i'm not surprised because it happens a lot. i guess i look somewhat the same. >> reporter: the kid who almost shot his eye out first made his name as messy mervyn in a series of wildly popular hershey's chocolate syrup ads. >> oh, marvin. >> reporter: but over the years, he's moved behind the camera, from "couples retreat" with his friends vince vaughn to "the break-up," billingsley has become a successful hollywood producer and director. but after all this time, he's never spoken in detail about the childhood role that's followed him his entire life, until now. >> people ask me, where the glasses a prop. they're for real. i was born with not good eyes. i still wear contacts. and i need reading glasses. i've never really been able to see. >> reporter: he agreed to speak with "nightline" at the opening of the musical he hopes to take

all the way to broadway. ♪ yes, leg lamp and all. "a christmas story." >> plays itself very well, the song and dance. if you can just imagine the idea of a leg lamp kick line, that's in the play. >> reporter: the play wouldn't exist if the movie hadn't become embedded in american culture. all the more remarkable because at the time peter says no one wanted to make it. is that right, nobody believed in it back then? >> no. i mean, it was, you know, a kid wanted a bb gun. not the greatest most cinematic pitch in the world. you know, set in the depression. i mean -- i don't think anybody expected it to turn out to be what it was. certainly the filmmakers believed in it. we all did. >> reporter: he says the director had to agree to make a horror movie for the studio just to get it green-lighted. another revelation, the flag

pole scene. >> are you kidding? stick my tongue to that stupid pole? that's dumb. >> that's 'cause you know it will stick. >> reporter: so as a child actor on that film, i would think that i'd be tempted to put my tongue to the flag pole. >> yeah -- >> reporter: did you do it? >> fortunately, prior to that, i hadn't, and that movie taught me just as a person to never do that because it's 100% true. if you do that, it will stick. >> reporter: none of the other kids -- >> no, that was actually -- it was a fake pole. they had a little tiny hole in it that was sucking air in so when he put his tongue -- it looked pretty real. >> i can't put my arms down! >> put your arms down when you get to school. >> ahh! >> the kid who played your little brother, he sounded so realistic when he was crying. you said those were probably real tears. >> yeah, that suit was high. that slide was scary for all of

us. >> reporter: the new ralphie isn't blonde but the 11-year-old has the look down. >> it's my scared face like -- >> reporter: and boy can he sing. on opening night of the big performance, seattle's fifth avenue theater crowded with adults acting like children before christmas. >> i have loved this movie for eons, decades. >> before the curtain opened it said "a christmas story." and it was in the same font. they were playing some music. boy, this has come a long way from whether i was 12 years old making this movie no one believed in. >> reporter: just imagine, without "a christmas story" the world may never know the joys of a leg lamp and kids everywhere might still be sticking their tongues to flag poles. >> stuck. stuck. stuck! >> reporter: i'm neal karlinsky for "nightline" in seattle. >> looks fun. the return of ralphie. thanks to neal karlinsky for that report.

we're going to be right back with tonight's closing argument. first, here's jimmy. >> tonight, kevin spacey, olivia wilde, music from goo goo dolls and these two people compete. /ç/ç/ç/ç/ç/ç/ç/ç/ç/ç/ç/ç/ç/ç/ç/ç