for a safe and secure future. this is abc7 news. hi there, i'm kristen sze. welcome to getting answers. we are asking experts your question every day at 3:00 to get answers for you in real time. toz we will talk about mail-in voting and how to make sure your vote counts. first ucf dr. george rutherford with the latest. thanks for joining us today. >> my pleasure. >> i am doing fine. good to see you. thank you. i want to start with this. cdc's newest model forecasting 214 to 226,000 total deaths by october 17th. now, that's a big increase from their forecast three weeks ago. any reaction to that? >> it's probably about right.

there 200,000 deaths now. that would be an average of about 1,000 deaths a day between now and then, a little bit less. that's just about -- so that's about right. that's not -- i don't see that as particularly startling. >> i guess just the sheer number itself. but of course we can control -- >> the sheer numbers, totally. >> right. >> 214,000 people is the size of salt lake city. >> when you put it that way, it is, i mean, it is sad and alarming and all that. the cdc also says people under 20 are now the largest group getting covid. that's a new headline. what do we know about why that is happening? >> college. i mean, i think it's as simple as that, that it's as a lot of places have gone back to -- there is a lot of schools reopened around the country, a lot of transmission on college campuses, and it's a lot. there may be some high schools mixed in with that, but it's really mostly colleges at this

point in time. >> all right. but do we know, even though a lot of them are starting to get sick, are they getting sick as in really feeling the ill impacts from covid, or are they in general feeling fewer symptoms, if you will, and not getting get hit quite as hard? >> well, a lot of these are turning up because of intensive screening programs and contact tracing around known cases at the colleges. so some of them will be asymptomatic. in fact, if it plays out the way we, you know, kind of the observations have been, that people who are in their teens/early 20s are less likely to be symptomatic than others. but less likely doesn't mean it's impossible, and there are hospitalizations and icu admissions in this group. in fact, there have been deaths in this group as well. not recently, but there are deaths that have been reported in this age group. so it's not like this is some benign thing if you are in your late teens/early 20s.

it's not as bad as if you are in your 80s, but it's not good. something to avoid. >> of course. and given that, officials in boulder, colorado, today saying starting today 18 to 22-year-olds are banned from gathering anywhere in the city. do you think that is a smart protocol or too extreme? >> well, i mean, it's tough to enforce. i am in the sure where the boundaries of the university of colorado start and where the boundaries of -- when the boundaries of boulder end. but that's, you know, wow, that's pretty, you know -- they are taking it really seriously to do something like that. >> yeah. >> and it may be right thing to do. >> all right. i got to ask you. some ac demings are suggesting facemasks may be inadvertently giving people covid-19 immunity, one study i read making people less likely to get sick or less sick from the virus. what do you think about that? >> i was the co-author of that paper, so i think it's a great

idea. >> is that you? look at me. of course i should have noted that. yes. tell me about that. >> you know, the observation is that the rate of severe disease and the rate of mortality is going down. and one reason as opposed to early on is that there was a lot more death and a lot more icu admissions. one of the things that's different is people are wearing masks. the observation across from a number of other infectious diseases is that the amount of you get, the dose you get, will influence how sick you are. so we know that, for instance, for hiv, if you get a big load of hiv you will get much sicker much faster than if you get smaller doses. but the observation here is that we know that there is a dose phenomenon. we can show it in animals with influenza and a variety of other respiratory diseases. we know that people are wearing masks and we know that the

mortality rate is lower in the second wave than it was in the first wave. so one way to put that together is to say that masks cut down the ineffective dose, and so if you do get infected you are going to get infected with a smaller dose. as far as we are concerned, there is a third reason to wear masks with the first being you protect yourself from getting it at all and the second if you are asymptom amically infected you protect everyone else. the third if you get it, you will get a less severe case go i highly suspect this mask-wearing is going to play a factor in the question i am about to ask you, which is san francisco has been doing fairly well, now in red, possibly soon to move into aunt jemima tier. i want to ask you, are numbers looking better than other major cities? what do you think that is due to? i know mask-wearing is certainly one of them. talk about some of the other factors. >> i mean, the most startling

thing about san francisco is how low the mortality is. there have been, unfortunately, 99 deaths in san francisco from covid since march, but that's a fraction of what it is in other cities. even if you multiply by ten, we are at much less than the mortality rates in los angeles. and part of that, there are several pieces. part is how good the intensive care units are here and how skilled the medical care is. but as important is that it was, you know, that the intensive care systems weren't overwhelmed early on like in new york and italy and in spain. part of that is careful planning. a big part is getting people, you know, sheltering in place earlier, which mayor breed went wa way out on a limb in doing. turns out to have saved thousands of lives. and just sort of the general

propensity to wear masks and to remain safe. so i think even though we had a second wave with lots of cases in the mid-to-late summer, we haven't seen the kind of mortality from that that we would have expected to see early on. and it's a-time testimony to a those things. >> i wonder if it's also something to do with the lifestyles we lead here. we know there is a link between, let's say, if you are obese or if you have other conditions. you know, does that play a role as well? >> maybe a little bit. but, i mean, you know, we can compare ourselves to seattle where it's people are equally health conscious or los angeles where it's like, you know, it's pretty -- yeah, there. i don't know. you know, you could say it's because it's cold in the summertime and people don't go outside as much, too. for whatever reason, you know, i think the observation, the observation is quite clear, is that we have a lower mortality

rate than other places. >> all right. i want to ask you, mayor breed, of course, looking at these numbers that are trending in the right direction, she still is urging san fran sis cans to beville gent. could we still slip up? >> yes, the third wave of this epidemic is already starting in the east and midwest. we are going to have to really, really, really be careful to avoid that happening here in san francisco, here in the bay area, and northern california and california in general. you know, this is a big party away from happening to seed 100 cases will seed lots more. you know, we could be on the bad side looking, you know, we could be going up without trying, you know, without, you know, without much trouble. if we, you know, if we slip up and if we do allow, you know, widespread transmission.

>> okay. everybody's on vaccine watch, of course. given that, where are the leading candidates in their trials right now and how close are we to an approval, do you think? >> well, the trials have to finish first. or they have to be stopped. so the way trials work is that there is something called the data and safety monitoring board that reviews data on a periodic basis to make sure that there is not some huge difference between the people who get the vaccine and people who get the placebo. it's true for drug trials as well. and if we have a big difference between those, the trial will stop. it will be stopped by the data and safety monitoring board. at that time the manufacturer can apply to the fda for an emergency use authorization. we have used an energy use authorization once before for a vaccine. that was for anthrax in 2005. so it's not a well worn kind of mechanism. but i think that we'll probably

be seeing stuff here. by this time next year we will have vaccines, i am pretty sure of that. i think we will see something in the next few months. whether we will see it in october -- everythingbody's goi go along with it, i think that's less likely. you hear the rhetoric from the vaccine manufacturers and how [ inaudible ] processes is getting, and everybody saying, wait, whoa, whoa, whoa, you know, let's make absolutely sure before we push this forward. >> yeah. i mean, you mentioned it's getting -- >> [ inaudible ]. >> sorry. >> sorry. i don't know if you saw it today, but governor cuomo in new york said they were going to -- the state was going to reapprove any vaccine that the fda approved. >> i did see that. i did see that. and there is also, of course, there were reports that the fda is expected to tell vaccine makers they need to wait two months, 60 days, right, after

giving their study participants their second doses before they can apply for the emergency authorization that you were talking about. i was going to ask you about the weighing of the fact if he wait the 60 days that delays the rollout, obviously. but if you don't, then there are a lot of questions especially because some of these vaccines use really new technology that's never been tested before. so how do you weigh that? >> well, i mean, obviously, you have to err on the side of safety. the benefit is not that difficult to achieve. you have to err on the side of safetyism think building in an observation period for 60 days after the second dose is a prudent kind of thing to do. now, whether the administration is going to let them do it or not is another issue. but i think it's a prudent thing to do. we have masks. masks are really effective and they are probably going to be as effective as a vaccine if you wear them. the trick with the vaccine is you don't have to put it on

every time you walk out the door. that's the benefit of the vaccine. i mean, it's not like we don't have anything that stops spread. we have masks. masks and social distancing will do as much to stop spread right now, you know, while we get the vaccine straight as anything. and i think it would be imprudent to jump ahead to a vaccine while we have a very viable alternative, and take a chance on a vaccine that has unobserved side effects that haven't been seen in the trials and end up having to pull it back and start again. i mean, that would be a true disaster. >> i hear what you are saying. you are saying an effective tool is already in our hands or on my face, in this case. >> yeah. i was going to make that distinction for you. >> thank you so much. always a pleasure talking with you because i learn a whole heck of a lot. dr. rutherford, good to see you. let's chat again soon. take care. >> take care, bye-bye. >> folks, we will take a break. next we will turn our attention

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making sure your vote counts continues to be a major topic of conversation as president trump continues to throw unfounded doubt into the mail-in voting system. we wanted to know about the real numbers and to make sure your vote counts. joining us is president -- california voter foundation kim alexander coming to us from sacramento. hi, kim. >> hi, thanks for having me. >> i want to say in several states the voting process has started. some ballots will be thrown out. the president referred to ballots that had been found in random places today when reporters asked him about that. does that suggest anything nefarious is going on or is that

normal to have some ballots that turn up in random places? >> well, occasionally there will be ballots that are found after the fact. it's very rare that that happens. and just to clarify, if your ballot is rejected as a vote by mail ballot because you forgot to sign the envelope or it got in too late, it's preserved the way the other ballots are preserved. it's just not counted rmt the rejected ballots are not all not counted or they're all not counted? >> on average in california over the last kedecade of all the vo by mail ballots casts 1.7% have been rejected because the voter forgot to sign the envelope or the signature did not sufficiently match their signature on file. i want to clarify that ballots are -- a small percentage of ballots [ inaudible ] rejected but they are never technically thrown out.

they are preserved for 22 months the way all ballots cast by california voters are preserved. >> got it. thanks for clarifying that. i see those terms used and it i think it confused a lot of people, what does that mean. there was a study of ballots that were rejected in recent elections. was there a pattern? like who were most likely to have rejected ballots? is there an age group? >> our study looked at three california counties, sacramento, san mateo and santa clara counties. only three of 58 counties but we found only patterns across all three counties that were consistent. one was that young voters were far less likely to cast vote by mail ballots. when they did, more likely to have them rejected. our study found in these three counties we looked at in the november 2018 election young voters ballots were rejected 2% to 3% of the time whereas overall voters in those counties saw their ballots rejected less than 1% of the time. so three times a greater rate of

rejection for younger voters. for older voters they were more likely to neglect to sign their envelopes. younger voters also were late, they were more likely to get their ballots in too late to count. we know young people are struggling with voting by mail for a couple of reasons. they are new to voting. they are not as familiar with using the postal service and they are not familiar with making a signature. we need to work extra hard to help young people come into this voting process and vote successfully. >> presuming you send it in early enough if your ballot is rejected will you be notified? >> yes, that's the good news. depending the reason your ballot is being challenged if you get it in too late you don't get notified, all we recommend in our report which is on our website at cal voter.org that voters are notified for any reason if their ballot is rejected. but if you have a signature problem, you forget to sign the envelope or your signature

doesn't sufficiently match your voter registration stigt ignatu final your county is required to contact you. in addition, california voters can sign up for ballot tracking and make sure their ballot is received on time and be notified immediately if there are any issues with it. >> so many questions. we have to hit these really quickly. what if your signature has changed from the one on file? >> that is a great question. and i know it's one that's really stressing out a lot of california voters. the advice is if you are not show you can update your reg strigs, you can do that obviously at the secretary of state's website. and the advantage to online registration or having your registration updated through the dmv which a lot of people have done at this point is that the signature on your driver's license or state i.d. is your voter registration signature. so that way you can look at your i.d. when you sign your ballot envelope and make your signature

look like that. >> don wants to know, any evidence that ballot harvesting is a problem in california? >> you know, we have not seen that. i know there is a lot of talk about ballot harvesting. early on when this became the new law there was a special election in l.a. where there were some reports of it. other than that we have not heard that from voters. i know that it's an issue people are worried about, but i think what's important for people to remember is that it's up to aet videoer to decide whether they want to entrust somebody else to turn in their ballot for them. our advice to voters is, you know, open your ballot as soon as you get it, fill it out as early as you can, get it in on time. if you can't turn it in, only give it to someone you trust to turn it in for you. >> we were talking about how more of young people's ballots are rejected, but is there something about the mail-in process that doesn't sit well or jibe with young voters? and makes them maybe less, you know, are today do this, to vote by mail?

>> yeah. i do think it is something that is foreign to young people. they are not used to using the u.s. mail. they are more familiar with texting and online transactions. you know, they don't write checks so much. so there are elements of vote by mail that are going to appear very old fashioned to young people. i think it's important we help bridge this gap because it is a very effective and safe way to vote, especially during a pandemic. one of the things people don't always appreciate is that it's a responsibility for getting it right when you vote from the poll worker who is assisting you at a polling place to the voter now sloating voting at home. that offers convenience but you have to make sure you use the right pen, fill out the ballot correctly, and you fill out the back of your envelope correctly and get it all in on time. so it adds some responsibilities for voters and that's why we want people who are experienced with voting to reach out to people around them, their friends, their family, community

members, younger people who may be new and give them some help. >> kim alexander, great voter education information. give folks your website once again so they can look up more if they need more information. >> yeah, calvoter.org. we have our online voter guide, our new rejected ballot study and next week we will be debuting our new election song and music video to inform and entertain you. >> now that will appeal to young voters.

welcome back. abc7 is celebrating hispanic heritage month where highlighting important issues in the hispanic community one of which is the census going on right now. joining us is jaime aragon, special projects manager at good samaritan family resource center in san francisco's mission district. how are you doing? >> hello, thanks for having me. >> absolutely. thanks for coming on. we are hearing that san francisco currently has the

lowest response rate in the bay area for the census. is that right? >> yeah. right now we're at is a lot lower than we were in our 2010 census count. >> so then with one week left to go, what are you doing to reach people? >> we are hitting the streets. we, as we speak right now, there is an army of folks at the civic center trying to catch folks doing the census with sf counts. we are doing a great job. we are just basically hitting the streets every single day with outreach workers to try to catch people. >> look, we've talked a lot about the importance of the census. i mean, that count has so much to do with the money that you get from the federal government, right? the political power that you have, the voice that you have. is there a resistance to responding to the census in some members of this spanish-speaking

community? if so, what do they tend to be? why are people somewhat nervous? >> yeah. well, it's no surprise. our immigrant communities, spanish-speaking communities have been under attack, and they've been feeling a lot of pressure and a lot of fear. there is, initially there was reports about how the secensus s going to have a citizenship question and folks were afraid they were going to have to disclose whether they were, you know, legally in this country or not, and so that's put people on edge. since then that question has been taken off of the census, it's not on there, but people still fear that there is -- that it's on there and that they may be able to be a part of the census. >> we have about ten seconds on air, but i want to ask you, if people want to be counted, what should they do? >> they should reach out to --

go to -- they can count themselves online at my census 2020.gov. my census 2020.gov. they could go to the sf counts website where there is tons of cbos that are a part of the network that can help people and assist them in filling out the census. >> jaime, thank you s

all right. that's going to do it for now. sh thank you for joining us on today's interactive show getting answers. we covered covid-19 headlines and how to make sure your mail-in ballot gets counted.

we also discussed the importance of responding to the census. we will be here tonight, protests erupt after the grand jury decision, two officers shot and the arrest tonight. authorities in cities across the country now bracing for a new round of demonstrations. those two officers shot and wounded in louisville, a suspect now under arrest. a seattle officer placed on leave tonight, video appearing to show him push his police bike over an injured protester's head. tonight the lawyer for breonna taylor saying how could wanton endangerment because of shots fired and demanding that the grand jury transcript be made public. what the governor is saying tonight. >> president trump booed paying his respects to rh