good afternoon, everyone. i'm liz kreutz filling in for kristen sze. welcome to our daily program called "getting answers," getting answers for you in realtime. today we have a packed rundown of guests to get you some very timely answers, joined by two officials working this year's u.s. census which is due today. we're hearing how to fill it out and why it's even more important than you think this year. plus another deadline looming, college applications, as if high schoolers had enough on their plate already, a top college counselor is giving parents and students her best tips for acing those. first we're going to talk about the 2020 election. so join us on facebook live right now to get your questions in. the magnitude of this election, as we all know, is well

documented. so much seems to be hanging in the balance, but the gravity of election night changes a bit because of the covid-19 pandemic. voting is happening by mail or by early vote, and it means we're starting to notice some trends coming in. abc 7 has a complete voter guide that you can pull up while you watch with us, it's on our website with the california proposition information as well and your voting questions answered. let's get right to it. we're getting those answers on the election trends we're starting to see. joining us is paul mitchell, the vice president of political data ink which analyzes california's trends and polls, among other thin things. >> glad to be here. >> what do your numbers show? >> we just passed the 2 million mark, meaning 2 million voters have already returned their ballots. for a frame of reference, by this time in 2016 we were about

500,000 people had voted. so it's really just an order of magnitude larger turnout so far this year. the real question is, is this a signal of something that's going to be happening to the 30-day voting period, where we're going to have super high turnout, or is this just some of the voters that were going to vote anyway just voting earlier. >> that's what i wanted to get into with you. what do these numbers mean? are we seeing a rise in early voting because everyone got the mail-in ballot or the increase in en thusz as >> in the mechanical piece, you're right. we did mail everybody in the state a ballot, but california has been slowly creeping towards an almost all-mail voting election anyway. we were scheduled to send 17.5

million voters mail-in ballots. the impact can't be just that one change. in the primary three-quarters of the votes came in by mail. so we're definitely seeing something that has to do with enthusiasm, motivation, feelings of these voters. what we're getting when we actually talk to pollsters who are now the the field talking to voters every day is one big driver is that they want to make sure their vote counts. they're concerned about the post office or security around the election, and they know they can sign up to get like a text message or an email when their ballot gets received by the county. so they're trying to get their votes in kind of just to make sure they can be counted. >> so then going off that, do you think there might be a slowing down trend? there's this first week where we've seen people rush in? >> we should probably see what would likely be more of a stable -- remember we have 20

millione million voters, 22 million voters. 10% of the electorate has already cast their ballot. over the next month, we expect to see kind of a steady movement of those votes coming in. the real question is, if we look at the first 10% of the voters that turned in ballots here, only 1% of those voters are voters that were not considered already to be likely voters. so 99% of these voters are people have voted in past elections. the vast majority, 90% of these voters, if they were eligible to vote in 2016, voted. so when we get into week two and week three, will we start seeing unlikely voters? will we start seeing better numbers from young voters and better numbers from latinos and other lower-income minority groups? >> so i know from talking to you before other elections because i often interview ahead of elections, you talked about -- i

can't remember. i think it was the midterms two years ago we were seeing the first people to vote, it seemed like, were older right leaning voters. is that what we're seeing right now? is that trend holding up? >> so what's interesting is in every mail-in election we've started to see these patterns develop. voting is kind of a habit, so you get this -- every election cycle you start to get the same people voting the same way. and so the first wave of votes that come in are almost always homeowners, older, whiter, more suburban. if you have a well-trained ear, that sounds like maybe more republican leaning, and the later voters are also renters and students and younger voters and more latinos. to a trained ear that sounds like maybe more democratic-leaning voters. that's exactly what happens. there's this trend. when we first started seeing these numbers, we saw that almost 60% of the votes coming

in were from democrats. republicans were underrepresented in that data. however, the demographics is still a lot of democrats that are higher income, more regular voters, people who voted by mail regularly. it seems as though a lot of the republicans are saying that they prefer this election to vote at the polls, that they believe or they've heard from their leadership in the republican party circles that maybe vote by mail isn't safe and they want to vote in person. >> interesting. i did see your data, i think you tweeted it out today saying more latinos have voted so far in 2020 than all voters in 2016 combined. what do you make of that? >> latinos are 26% of the electora electorate. when the early vet is four or five times greater, their raw numbers reached a point where we had more latinos voting at this

point in the election cycle than all the voters voting at this point in the election cycle in 2016. however, just to put a little bit of a check on that, latinos, 26% of the lech tofelectorate. still only 17% have cast voters so far. young voters, only 7% have cast is a ballot so far. seniors are 43% of the votes that have come insofar. >> what do you make, paul, of these long lines of polling places that we're seeing across the country? are we expecting to see anything like that here in california? >> i think lines for voting is troublesome. whether you're a democrat or republican, having people stand in line is like a poll tax. you're taxing them with their time and not making voting as easy as it can be. i think a lot of people that are

getting in line right now essentially a month before the election in voting and even standing in line eight or 11 hours, those are voters like we're seeing in california, these first early voters, who are extremely enthusiastic to vote and are very concerned if they don't hurry up and do it, that their vote is not going to ultimately count. god bless people who stand in line that long to exercise their democratic right, no matter who it is they're going to vote for. in california, like i was saying, a lot of democrats seem to want to vote early and by mail. it's almost like a virtue signaling thing. i'm team democrat, so i'm going to vote early and put it on instagram and facebook and it's going to be my thing. we're expecting and seeing a lot from republican voters that suggest they might be going and voting at polls and there might be lines simply because people who maybe have voted by mail before and had an opportunity to mail-in a ballot for a whole

month were kind of pushed by their political leadership to vote in person. there might be a lot of frustration. you might have a lot of republicans frustrated by lines or by being told that, if they didn't bring in their vote-by-mail ballot to relinquish at the polls, they're going to have to vote with a provisional. you might have people really frustrated about that on election day. >> almost out of time, but i want to ask you one final question. what are you then, as you track all this, what are you anticipating for election night in terms of getting results and seeing a winner or not seeing a winner? >> remember how we talked about how early votes were always democratic and late -- really democratic and early votes were really republican. that shifting that we've seen in the past meant that after election night we were never really sure about our own results. there was a thing called the blue shift, meaning that votes that are counted later in the days and weeks after the election tended to shift more

blue because it's more of those college students and younger voters. this election cycle, because it's all getting mixed up, you have a lot of early voting democrats and late-voting republicans. i think the election results in california on our ballot measures and any local races are going to be pretty stable from election night through the rest of the voting period. nationally, it could be a very different story. unlike california where counties can start processing ballots now, in other states, most specifically pennsylvania, michigan, wisconsin, they can't start even processing those vote bsh difficult-mail ballots until election day. >> interesting. that's where we'll see the holdup there. paul mitchell, thank you so much. i'm sure i'll talk to you more in the coming weeks. we appreciate your time. thank you. >> thank you very much. up next, the u.s. census deadline is today and it's vitally important this year, especially with the pandemic and the election hanging in the balance. first, with so many concerned about the return to school,

there's some who have to worry about college applications at the same time. ask us your questions

welcome back. all this week abc 7 news has committed to taking an up-close look at the world of education during this pandemic as we work to build a better bay area. there's no denying it's a struggle for so many. for virtual learning, the safety of those returning to class, what those look like, we're spending all week hearing from parents, teachers and students for education week about what's working and what might not be working. on top of all those things to worry about, some also have to mull over one of the biggest decisions of their young lives, high schoolers on where and if they want to go to college.

it's a gigantic decision in their world, and for parents as well. we're here to get some answers. joining us is lauren cook who currently leads the western association of college admission counseling. thank you for being back with us. >> happy to be here. always happy to help. >> deadlines are looming. first of all, what are the biggest ways the application process has really changed with this pandemic? >> i think the biggest thing is testing, the availability of testing, the way that colleges have had to pivot about becoming test optional over the past two months, the way standardized testing companies have tried to get creative to see if there are still ways to gather students to test and ultimately for students and families to decide if that's something they're able to do, if it's something they want to do and if they're not able to get a test score, then how to proceed with their application. >> i want to get back to that. that is something we have to dig in to, but before we do, what

are some 57 case deadlines that are approach that people should know about? >> our first big one is coming. november 1st is when there are a lot of early applications due. so both early action and early decision. these are different kinds of flavors of submitting an application early and potentially getting a decision early, typically before winter brea. and then we're also a few weeks away from the uc and csu application deadlines which are typically november 30th and a couple csus are giving you a few days after that. >> i have a relative who is a senior in high school. she is going through this process down in san diego. she's really stressed. i think she represents a lot of young people right now where she was not able to get a test. she has not been able to. she's very worried she's going to be at a disadvantage. what do you tell kids like that? >> the first thing i'd say is congratulations, you're actually in the majority, especially in

california, it's been difficult for students to be able to test. i would tell that student that they're not alone, that this is something we're seeing across high schools and across the state. this is one of the reasons that schools really reacted early, some as early as last spring and throughout the summer, and even in the past few days we've had more colleges and universities making test-optional statements and policies. everyone is having 20 pivot in different ways. colleges are no exception to this. they will be looking at other pieces of your application more carefully, the classes you've chosen, the grades you've received, recommendation letters, writing, activities, all that can still paint a very full picture. >> have universities given assurances when they say test optional. i think that's when people say optional will give an advantage to a student that was able to get a test and maybe get the score they wanted, too. have universities given any assurance that they'll try to have a level playing field as

best they can? >> i think there's a lot of conversations right now about equity and wanting to make sure -- this is very much an equity issue and trying to make sure the playing field is level. you will see things like, on the uc website, under their policies for this year, it says very much in bold, if you don't have a test, that is okay. please don't risk your health or safety, travel out of state as we hear some students doing, to try and achieve a test score. we do have a lot of other information on which to make an admission decision. so there's definitely advice for students that don't have a test score. you might want to mention why in your application, especially if you're applying to schools that are out of state. the context can be different depending on where you are in the country. a couple of sentences somewhere in your application just to give context for what's been happening here in the bay area. and then to also just make sure there isn't something else the college is requiring as part of their test optional policy.

some literally don't need anything else. you don't submit the test score. some may want an extra recommendation letter. they may ask for a writing sample, something from an english class or history class. you want to read the fine print on the policies to know how to submit your application appropriately without that score. >> that's really good advice. let's talk about uc then and csu policies on testing. what have they said? >> so the csu was pretty early out the gate in may saying they were going to be test blind for this year. they literally don't ask for your test score on your application. it's not something that's going to be considered. they are leaning in more to your transcript, what your gpa looks like and what the curriculum looks like over the four years. the uc situation has been more complicated as we've had the courts getting involved. my understanding on the latest situation is there's been a stay in that ruling that we had a few weeks ago. so we're back in a test optional

stance with the ucs. some campuses say they are proactively operating in a test blind capacity so act and s.a.t. score won't be considered. there are another set where if you have that data point and you feel it represents your academic ability, go ahead and submit it. but they are able to make a decision without it if you decide to withhold it. >> here is a rumor i've heard. maybe not a rumor. i hear seniors think they're going to be at a disadvantage this year because so many students ahead of them deferred because they didn't want to go to college during this pandemic, that now there's less slots for this next class? is that true? is there truth that? >> i hear this over and over. i do think in talking with my peers at colleges and university across the country that this is more myth than fact. there are some places where there's been a small spike in kids asking for time off for gap

years, other places were enrollment consistent and other places where enrollment is actually up. i would tell students to not spend too much time both worrying about this thing that i don't think has a lot of evidence and data behind, but also over which they don't have control. i think the biggest thing they can do is work on their own application thinking about how to be the most them they can be and really put together something excellent and submit it on time. >> absolutely. lauren cook, thank you again for being with us. you always have such good advice. we know it's a stressful time. you really help break it down. thank you. >> no problem. >> when we get back, we're getting answers on filling out the u.s. census. we'll tell you why it's so

welcome back. it's often glanced over and set aside for later. this year you cannot do that with the 2020 census. you need to have it done by

today. it may seem like a chore for some of you, but that document is the difference in trillions of dollars for our communities. joining us to get answers is adrian pon. adrian, thank you so much for joining us. >> thank you for having me. >> we know this is such a critically important issue. the deadline got moved up to today. how many people have filled it out? for people who haven't done it yet, how can they? >> good question. liz, about 66.7% of the city has self-responded to the census, and that leaves about a third of the city still uncounted. of course, the census bureau still has a little bit more work to do, but we're concerned about the 150,000 households and estimated 150,000 that have not been able to participate.

so that has a critical impact on our city. >> refresh people again on what kind of impact that might have, people who aren't familiar with it. any idea as to why it's been so hard to reach out and find those 150,000 households? >> yeah, absolutely. a lot of people don't know that when you do the census, you help fund everything to do with our daily lives, from schools to technology, hospitals, roads, social services, meals for kids and seniors, covid-19 treatment and recovery and much more. these funds will apply for the next ten years. it's our fair share of federal dollars. so the stakes are really high. there's more at risk, too. a lot of people don't realize the connection between participating in the census and the election. not everyone can vote, but every single person in the united states and its territories can do the census. your vote matters, but you need

to be counted first. so doing the census means there's -- you're going to impact apportionment. you're going to impact how many congressional seats that we get and the electoral college and how the president will be chosen. so it's all about our voice, our representation, our fair share of dollars and especially at this time, our democracy. but it's not too late to participate. >> we were putting up what you said, only 60% of san franciscans have submitted for the census so far. can you compare to ten years ago? >> is that about on par? better or worse than in the past? >> definitely not as good. the 2010 census had its shortcomings, but it was such a great experience for the city and we did well. the self-response rate, and remember this is back before they went all digital was 68.5%. we are currently at 66.7.

so we're not a whole lot behind, but in 2010 we didn't have covid-19. we didn't have a lot of people moving out of the city and an all digital census that wasn't tested by the census bureau. we have a lot of challenges. more challenges this time, especially for people who may face physical barriers, digital barriers. they may not have internet or enough bandwidth or they may have language barriers. >> i think we have about 30 seconds. we know the supreme court has allowed -- the trump administration to end the census early. how much of a difference does that make as well? >> it's a huge difference. we're disappointed but not surprised since there have been so many head-spinning twists for the 2020 census. cutting it short at a critical time that's been interrupted for a covid-19 really short changes cities like san francisco, los angeles, new york, where we have

a lot of people that are historically hard to count. >> adrien, tell us what's a website people can go to if they twoont fill out the census? >> it's my2020census.gov. there's still about 11 hours left. the census game ends at 11:59 hawaii time or 2:59 a.m. tomorrow. >> adrienne, thank you for joining us. have a good one. we'll take a break on we made usaa insurance for this season. and the veterans that never quit on their team. when being a fan gets tough, and stretching your budget gets even tougher... ...our agents put in the time and legwork for you, ...so saving on auto insurance is easy. because saving a little extra goes a long way. usaa. what you're made of, we're made for.

okay. thank you very much for joining us on this interactive show, "getting answers." we'll be here every weekday

answering your questions in realtime. check out abc7news.com and our free app for the tonight, several developing stores as we come on the air. the dueling town halls tonight, during what was supposed to be their second presidential debate. instead, a split screen in america. president trump pulling out of that debate when the commission wanted a virtual one to protect everyone from covid. tonight, the town halls instead. joe biden taking questions from voters here on abc, and the late announcement this week president trump will do the same on another network. the president blasting his own town hall today as a setup. and the president in north carolina on the same day the state reports its highest number after daily cases of the virus since march. and news coming in from the biden campaign tonight, vice presidential candidate kamala harris halting travel for now, as two on her team test positive for covid. what we've learned tonight.