hi there. i'm kristen sze. welcome to our daily program called "getting answers." we're asking experts every day your questions at 3:00 to get answers realtime. coming up, we'll get into the stock market as the dow dropped nearly 900 points in the last two days. what happens now and what can you do to protect your money? plus, a firsthand experience what it was like traveling the hawaii from my co-anchor larry beil. most polls show democratic joe biden well ahead of president trump up by 10% or more. a new poll out of california using a new method says those polls are missing something important and that president trump looks to be headed for a narrow victory. joining us to talk about this is mirta galesic, one of the

researchers involved in the usc dornside day break poll. >> thank you for inviting me. >> before we get into the experimental polling method, tell us, using that method right now, who would win the popular vote and who would win the electoral college and hence the white house? >> we are actually part of a research team partnering with usc. we're skrg a panel of participants for their own intentions to vote and using several new methods we're hoping the shed light on the election. in particular we're asking people who they think their friends will vote for. according to this, biden still wins popular vote by a more narrow margin than most polls predict. when it comes to electoral votes, although our poll was not designed to do state-level predictio predictions, there is a possibility that trump could win

electoral vote or at least what we're seeing is a very close race. >> all right. so i understand that unlike other polls where they kind of get at who would you vote for, you're asking, hey, who do you think people in your social circle would vote for and who two you think your state would vote for? why do you think that's a more accurate way to read the tea looefls and really get at what is going to happen? >> from our previous work on social judgments and how people make judgments about other people, we realized people are pretty good knowing what their friends and family think about different issues. that's normal because we need these people in our daily lives it's only normal we know who knows what, who thinks what and so on. we thought maybe we could tap into this wisdom of crowds to try to understand better who people are going to vote for. we think by asking people about their friends, we might get additional information about people who are not in the poll

some people won't answer the phone, but their friends might say who they'd vote for. >> interesting. sometimes people want to high who they're voting for, but when you say who do you think your friends might vote for, you'll come out and say who you probably would have voted for, too? >> we definitely see that. some people -- maybe not embarrassed, but they feel harassment admitting they would vote for a less popular candidate in their social environment. the pollster doesn't know the name and number of their friends. >> mirta, let's take a look at the graphs. this is on your website looking at the percentages. this one is showing traditional polling questions based on the traditional polling method. you can see the blue line is biden at 53%. the red line is trump at 42%. under the traditional polling

method, clearly that mirrors the national polls we're seeing biden wins. now let's different graph. look at that. that is a tie in terms of percentages. wow, what a difference. >> we see people are expecting a very tight race. we think there are at least two reasons for that. one is people still remember 2016 election and how close it was and are afraid that there might be a last-moment surprise for either candidate. also, people expect that there are people who are not reporting their true intentions to the polls so they're expecting especially a silent trump voters that will come out. >> when you look at who do you

think your state will vote for, who do you think your social circle will vote for, it does look to be very close. how do you get from pretty much a tie to president trump winning the electoral college? >> our main question that we're paying more to is about who their social circles, friends will vote for. that question predicts a healthy margin provided in the popular vote, currently four or five percentage points which is not as much as the most -- i think the average poll -- is around eight percentage points, but still a win for biden. but if we look at the average of social circle reports in different states, then we see some states that are predicted by polls to go for biden might have according to the question, opportunity to vote for trump.

again, our vote has not been designed for -- we should take it with a grain of salt. >> i do understand this is an experiment you're looking at. dorn side still has its more traditional method. would this have predicted president trump's surprise victory that most pollsters missed in 2016? >> you're correct. we actually tried this question in five elections so far. the first being 2016, u.s. presidential election. that's when we actually predicted electoral vote for trump. then we also tried this question in four other elections, in u.s. in 2018 and three european elections because we thought maybe there was something about the american voting size stem. every time, social circle question predicts election results better than the question about own intentions in the same poll. sometimes better than the overall polls. that said, it's an experimental -- >> okay, mirta. my last question is what's next?

obviously you're testing this out, so what are you going to do with the election results and see where you go from there? >> it's going to be interesting to see whether social circle question will work as well as in last five elections because in the last half a year, all of our social life has changed dramatically. the social circle question relies on our knowledge about friends. but all of us are communicating differently with our friends than we did before. so we're maybe more oriented towards a few close friends. we lost a lot of touch with our colleagues, people from the gym and so on. maybe we spend more time on social media. all of this could affect the results of the social circle question and the accuracy of the predictions. >> mirta galesic, one of the researchers involved in this usc dornside day break poll, this experimental look at your social circles and what you think about

your state. thank you so much for your time. >> thank you very much. >> we'll take a short break. when we come back, you know the stock market is tanking this week. we're talking to a financial expert about this and what you can do, plus you've been wondering about this probably. how do you travel to

welcome back. the stock market is something that almost all of us are impacted by. right now there's a lot impacting the market. the dow dropped 650 points yesterday and another 200 today. joining us to talk about why and what we can do is chief strategist at interactive brokers, steve sosnick, thank you for joining us. >> my pleasure. thank you for having me. >> absolutely.

in the grand scheme of market movements down 80, 900 points in the last couple days is not to panic, but there is a sense of worry. what is driving that? >> i think there was a sea change in sentiment yesterday. it's very strange when it happens all at once. i think the market sort of came to a realization that it put a lot of hospitals on a fiscal stimulus package and it wasn't coming. a lot of us have been thinking how are they going to do this, if the white house and speaker pelosi keep talking and leader mcconnell doesn't want to participate, they can't get it done, and i think the market kind of came to that realization yesterday. it's not happening any time soon, and now it's up to the election. as your last guest said, there's only clarity to a point and people in the market don't have that clarity that they need to be confident about. >> all right. what's happening this week may have a lot to do with the

stimulus that's not coming. how does the market typically behave in the week leading up to a presidential election? >> markets are really good at predicting things that are market related like company earnings, sales, et cetera. political events, markets are not that great. what we see is volatility. think about four years ago when the consensus was, if hillary wins, the market is going to hip higher. if trump wins, the market is going to crash. the crash happened for about six hours overnight and then it's rallied more or less every time since. markets don't have a great way of getting this right. a lot of traders use options which i don't want to get too technical here, but a lot of traders use options -- >> steve, we'll see if we can get you back. you're back. we lost your signal for about

ten seconds. i want to move on to the next question which is a lot of eyes are on thursday. what's happening on thursday, especially with regard to tech stocks which here in silicon valley we care so much about? all right. sorry about that folks. >> i'm sorry. >> you're back. we'll give it one more try. >> i'm sorry about that. >> what's happening on thursday? >> well, you have what i would call the mother of all earnings day. you have apple, amazon, facebook and you have alphabet or google all reporting about the same time. that's a huge percentage of the market capitalization of the nasdaq 100 index and a pretty big percentage of the s&p 500 index. if they all move together, you can get a huge move in the market as a result of it. typically, one stock goes up, one stock goes down.

that's a very risky time thursday night into friday for market participants, and you're seeing a lot of people hedging against this. markets vice president been all that friendly. microsoft released very good earnings today and the stock is down a percent or two in the after-hours trading. this would actually be the crucial time to be watching on thursday. >> those earnings are going to have to be darn good for it to move the stock upwards at this point. i want to ask you about -- you said the market is not great predictor of presidential election results, but i want to ask you, does this show anything about the sentiment right now. solar stocks have been falling and you think you would invest in solar if you thought biden was going to win. does this suggest any change in the perception by investors who might win, or is this something else? >> it's funny because first solar released earnings after the close and that stock zoomed. you're right. the markets change on a dime.

this is the problem. they're very fickle. so i think right now the trade got the crowded -- everybody moved into the green energy type of stocks being one bellwether of it. when it gets too crowded -- think about if you're on a tour boat, one runs to one side of the boat and then to the other side. that's kind of what happened. again, that shows the lack of clarity that markets have with the political process. they don't know any better than anybody else. they often think they do. >> it's not so good for the little guy, the average investor with a 401(k) to run to one side when everybody is running to one side of the boat. that's not going to win anything for you long term. what's your advice for people? >> i would say think about what it is that you like to be investing in. right now it's very hard to get yields. there are some real blue-chip stocks that have very high yields and actually can earn that kind of money.

they're a bit out of favor right now. i can't give specific recommendations. that's not what i'm allowed to do. but basically don't go running from one side of the boat to the other. think about what's working for you. think about if it seems what they're doing is sustainable. if you can see sustainable earnings and hopefully some dividends in an era where you can't really get much of a return on capital in terms of income doing much else, they're out of favor, and sometimes i want to be on the side of the boat that nobody is on. that's your dividend stocks right now. your better quality blue-chip old-fashioned names to a certain extent, the ones that are still bringing in good earnings. >> steve, great advice. thank you so much. chief strategist with interactive brokers. a few technical issues, but still a great conversation. take good care. >> thank you, kristen, you, too. coming up, we'll shift

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>> slowly but surely people are exploring what it's like to go on vacation. one of the most popular and desirable locations in the u.s. is hawaii which lifted its two-week quarantine requirement providing you have a negative covid test. abc 7 news anchor larry beil just got back from hawaii, tan and all. aloha, larry. >> aloha. kristen, i thought i would dress for the occasion since i don't get to wear a lot of hawaiian shirts on local tv. we had a great trip. i just got back. it was fantastic. >> that's awesome. >> you and i have been talking about this for months, like how to go to hawaii, do it safely. you finally did it. i admire you. walk us through the process that you had to go through to get

approved, get tested before you left and what happened when you landed. walk us through it. >> first thing you do, you decide, we're going to hawaii. you have to jump on your computer or phone, tablet and go to the state of hawaii website. you can just type in to google safe travels hawaii, it will take you to travel.hawaii.gov. create profile, user name, password, what flight you intend to be on, where you're going to visit, all that good stuff. then you're set. that's part one. it's mandatory. you've got to do that on the website. then it starts to get a little trickier. >> okay. before we get to the tricky part, when you land, rebecca delgado wants to know how was the actual plane trip, the plane ride? >> it was fine. we were on hawaiian airlines. they're still keeping some seats open so you have some space. pretty much everybody wore masks all the way through the flight

except when they were eating. the flight was fantastic. we had no problems at all flying over and on top, everything all good. >> okay. but then you landed. tell us what the airport scene was like processing visitors. what was your personal hiccup? >> so then you land and then you're kind of like cattle going into various lines. so that is a little bit slow at the airport. they had some issues with it initially, but if you had your test done and you have your results back, then you're going to breeze through. you'll meet with a couple of people. you'll show them your phone designating with a qr code that you tested negative, and you'll breeze on through and then you'll be going to the beach in no time or wherever you want to go. >> i don't want to interrupt you, but just looking at the video, you're looking at larry getting a secondary test, right? tell us about that, after you got there, you had to take it

again? >> no, you don't have to. this is a voluntary thing. they're screening about 10% of all passengers and you can choose to opt in or opt out. i chose to opt in, mostly because family members, in as much as they may love me thought, you might kill us if you're positive, so go get a second test. we don't love you that much. so i volunteered and there's a secondary surveillance testing program that's run by dr. dewolf miller, an epidemiologist. what the results are showing so far, they're catching basically everybody. it's less than 1% of people entering the state are positive. so they're catching everybody with that first wave of testing to the point where they may not continue doing the surveillance program because it's really -- it's less than a quarter of a percent that have turned up positive. that's that part of the testing. >> that's reassuring. you had to quarantine just a

little bit while you waited for your negative result to come back so you could upload it and all. tell us how they handled that at the hotel level. let's say you're quarantined, how does that work in the hotel? >> that's one of the two glitches that i was going to mention. let me go back. this first thing is really important. after you do the whole business with the website, you have to locate a trusted partner of the state of hawaii. it's on the website. i think they've got about 16 of them. it could be a cvs, walgreens, quest. around the country there are various health care providers. the key is you have to have a test within 72 hours before you depart for the state of hawaii. the glitch is when the trusted partner can't return your result back to you in time which is what happened to me. i was in on the second day that this program started, one of approximately 5% of all travelers inbound who did not get their result back. my wife got her test back before we took off.

mine was somewhere in the universe. so i got to the hotel, as you mentioned, and they say -- like hotel california, you can check out but you can never leave. you're in your room. it's a one-time-only key. you can get in the room but then you're stuck there until you can produce a test from the lab, pdf, whatever it is they send you that says you are negative, you are okay. so that's the glitch. you have to be sure that the state's trusted partner will be able to deliver their results within 72 hours or then you could end up looking out the land nye at tai to be out. >> wishing you paid for the ocean view so you can at least see the ocean instead of whatever you're looking at. you lost one day. that's too bad. do you know some people who lost more days quarantining? >> yeah, there have been some of

those. the state is working feverishly to try to fix that. that's where the second glitch comes in. because the app/website is not doing a great job right now of getting all the data uploaded so you can get the negative test result back so you can go down to the front desk and go, here it is, i got my qr code, i'm negative. i'm free to go. some people are having a hard time because they're getting these notices that say verification in progress. and my sister-in-law and brother-in-law have been waiting for three or four days now to actually get verified. they're negative. they know they have negative test results, but they can't rent a car until they get certification from the state, the qr code that says you're good to go. you sometimes have to improvise. i've been talking to the people that run the program back in the state of hawaii, and they're trying their best and they're throwing everything they can at

this because right now, you don't want to have thousands of people come into the state and be stuck in quarantine. >> we've got about 70 seconds. i want to get to a few questions. joseph wants to know is it safe in hawaii? are people there wearing masks? >> yes. for the most part. one of the thing lieutenant governor, dr. josh greene wants to emphasize is you must wear your mask. they're having a little trouble with some people who say i got my negative test, i'm taking my mask off. not the way it works. i found 90%-plus were wearing their masks. >> what about the experience there, the things you love about hawaii, the beaches, the restaurants, maybe the shopping if you're in waikiki, how are those looking? >> the beaches are great because hardly is anybody there. look at the crystal clearwater by the hilton hawaiian village. beaches are largely empty for now. but five to seven,000 visitors

are coming in per day. the restaurant scene at least in waikiki is a little iffy. a lot of hotels and restaurants are still not open. they have not ramped up yet because the state has gone forwards and backwards and backwards and forward on when they're actually opening up. some of the large hotels said we can't do this back and forth. we'll wait until january 1 and then we know we'll be up and running. a lot of restaurants and hotels

it will save you a lot of frustration. >> thanks, larry. see you at 4:00. that's it for now. thank you so much for joining us on this interactive show "getting answers." we explored an experimentmental poll out of usc that suggests the presidential race is a lot closer than expected. we talked about the state of the

stock market and took you to hawaii with larry beil. world news tonight, the sprint to the finish. election day one week from today. more than 69 million americans voting already. president trump and joe biden in the battlegrounds tonight. huge crowds. the president in three states, biden in georgia tonight. a clear sign the biden team thinks they have a chance in a state not won by a democrat since bill clinton. and former president obama in orlando. why where he is signals who the biden team is hoping to reach and what he said about president trump. it was clear today, president trump was watching. early voting across the u.s. and tonight, authorities in several states are now urging americans who have requested mail-in ballots to fill them out and send them in now. and we'll tell you why. and tonight, the latino vote here in the u.s. and the states where latino voters could make the difference between a trump or biden victory. mary bruce, jon