\s this is "nightline." >> tonight, political battleground in a pivotal swing state crucial to the president. >> it's great to be with you and back at the villages. i like the villages. >> despite an in-person pitch to the florida faithful, why some reliably republican retirees are backing biden this time. >> we need somebody to bring this country back together. >> the senior citizen brigade. >> four more years! >> at the biggest retirement community in america. and how the virus is changing votes. >> "nightline" will be right back. want to brain better? unlike ordinary memory supplements- neuriva has clinically proven ingredients that fuel 5 indicators of brain performance. memory, focus, accuracy, learning, and concentration.

try our new gummies for 30 days and see the difference. did you know that febreze air effects uses 100% natural propellant? cheaper aerosols use artificial propellants. that's why febreze works differently. plus, it eliminates odors with a water-based formula and no dyes. for freshness you'll enjoy. asof being stretched too thinar to do my job right. and it's not just health care workers. our teachers and school staff are going the extra mile for our kids. our firefighters are taking on unthinkable missions to keep us safe. how can we keep giving billions in tax breaks to rich corporations when our communities need that money? prop 15 closes corporate loopholes and invests in our schools, health care, and public safety. help us do our jobs. vote yes on 15.

♪ good evening. thank you for joining us. tonight, the political shift in the sunshine state, florida. an lex bell weather in a crucial state for the president to secure a second term. as some of his strongest supporters in the region defect to the biden camp, what can the trump campaign do now to catch up in the polls? here's abc's rachel scott. >> a thousand golf carts will be

participating with probably 1,500 people. >> reporter: 77-year-old stan sweiss not only resembles president trump, he's one of his biggest supporters. >> people like to take pictures, they like to interact with the president. >> reporter: stan is also one of the founders of the villagers for trump club here at the villages retirement community outside orlando, florida, with 130,000 residents roving on 60,000 golf carts. it's the largest senior community in the nation. >> trump is going to win! >> reporter: he and club members showing off their strength in numbers at a now-iconic trump golf cart parade, recruiting even more votes from neighbors. >> i helped run the election for president trump, governor desantis, and senator scott. we carried the election according to all three of them. they all admit if it wasn't for central florida, and especially the villages, they would have lost. >> reporter: the villages, predominantly white and republican, became base of support to help propel the president to victory in florida

four years ago. 68% of the residents here voted for trump. the community has also been a source of controversy. a man who appeared to be a trump supporter shouted "white power" during a parade earlier this year. the president retweeted, then later deleted, that video. president trump won florida in 2016, but with his approval ratings now underwater, and a razor-thin edge in the polls, this time around, his adopted home state could be up for grabs. in the last few weeks ago, every vote seemingly courted and chased by both candidates. >> it's great to be with you and back at the villages, i like the villages. >> reporter: stan and his club rented 18 billboards scattered across the state. up to $5,000 a pop. hyping what he says are president trump's accomplishments. he took us to this one near his home. >> what message do you want people who are driving by this area to take away?

>> to look and see what it says. i think that he has done what he said he was going to do, or improved it greatly, as far as the border wall, rebuilding the military. >> reporter: what's not advertised, president trump's handling of the pandemic. >> do you think wearing a mask is important to fighting the spread of the virus? >> no. carol and i do wear them when we go grocery shopping. but i see people, they walk into a restaurant with the mask on, they take it off, eat and drink, put it back on walk out. i don't see the difference. >> the president has said to not live in fear, to not be afraid, when it comes to the pandemic. are you afraid of catching covid? >> no. we have done nothing different since march. we live the same life that we have. i play golf three times a week. you know, that's the way i'm going to live. i'm 77 years old, i'm not going to hide. i'm going to live. if god wants me to die of the virus, then i guess that's the way i'm going to die. i'm not fearful of it, and i know my wife carol is not.

we're thinking of going on a cruise in november. >> i'm afraid of catching the coronavirus, but i'm also afraid that if i catch it, that i may give it to others without me knowing. >> reporter: 60-year-old villager sarah branscom is concerned about the virus. >> how would you rate the president's handling of the pandemic? >> i'm not pleased. i'm very concerned with not having the masks. it's okay not to wear a mask, and you'll see it around here. i think we should have closed sooner, been informed faster, social distancing. dr. fauci is one of my heroes and i think we should have listened to him more. >> reporter: sarah, like stan, is also politically active and dresses the part, too. >> when i come here weekly, i don't necessarily buy stuff. sometimes i just come and walk around with my shirt, just making a statement.

>> reporter: six days a week, this former teacher cheerfully volunteers her time to the democratic party. >> go, joe! >> reporter: she flags traffic, calls potential voters. >> i hope we can count on your vote for biden for president and the other democrats on the ballot. >> hi, l reporter: bakes snacks other volunteers. >> i got you some brownies. no nuts. >> why are you supporting joe biden? >> i would say he's a mensch, somebody with integrity, somebody who is truthful. he gives me hope. i believe that he has plans for things that we need plans for. >> the president did well with seniors last election. he's struggling this time around. why do you think that is? >> one is the virus. when i speak to my friends who are now the republicans for biden, they're not seeing what they felt they were voting for.

>> reporter: 67-year-old villager steven starrich voted for trump in 2016. >> who are you voting for? >> vote's done, in the mail. joe biden. >> why? >> one of the reasons is atone for my mistakes. i don't have a problem to admit i made a mistake, and i did. somebody's got to bring this country back together. his fixation is only on himself. i never heard a guy use the word "i" so much in my life. >> reporter: this former u.p.s. executive is a lifetime republican. >> how would you rate the president's handling of the virus? >> i couldn't imagine it being worse. from embracing science, having a nationwide plan, having testing, having tracing, all these things we should be able to do, and doing nothing but politicizing the thing. and then demonizing democratic governors as a result of it. he outsourced his responsibility to 50 governors and said, have at it. we ended up with 50 different plans. how did that work out? >> how much is your vote, a vote

for the biden/harris ticket, a vote for them or a vote versus trump? >> both. i believe joe biden in any situation is an honorable man. he's not lying to me. >> we know older voters are more likely to turn out. we know that they've leaned republican. why are they shifting now towards joe biden? >> because so many of them are dying of covid. folks 65 and older, having much greater chance of dying of covid than the rest of the population, and as those folks face that reality, that they're not going to see their grandkids at thanksgiving or christmas, they're not going to go travel on that trip they saved their whole life to go on, because of covid. we are in a situation where it is increasingly difficult for seniors to see a pathway out of it. >> reporter: rick wilson is the cofounder of the lincoln project, a group of republican political strategists trying to unseat the president. >> if biden wins florida and the map holds as it is right now,

this race is a blowout. it's going to be very, very tough for this president to hold on to power unless he takes the sunshine state. >> reporter: in the last six election cycles, no candidate has won the white house without winning florida. with 29 electoral votes, it's known for its nail-biting contests, most famously bush versus gore. >> how confident are you that the president is going to win florida? >> i think he'll win florida. number one, it's the economy. he actually, if you look at what the economy was before covid, it was doing really well. number two is, i think the president's done a good job of defending law enforcement and supporting law enforcement. >> reporter: republican rick scott was governor for eight years and is now the state's junior senator. >> i think it's probably true for every state, this late in your campaign, it's all about getting your votes out. everybody's sort of defined by now. you work every day to get the vote out. >> reporter: as soon as president trump recovered from covid-19, his first stop, the sunshine state. >> florida's a very challenging state. a state full of very different

microcosms. the panhandle is as different from broward county as alabama is from new york city. and you've got a significant percentage of latinos, and it's not just cuban-americans, it's venezuelan-americans, colombian-americans, puerto ricans. >> reporter: both campaigns fighting for the latino vote, which makes up 17% of the total number of registered voters in florida. >> it's not one monolithic group, it's not one bloc. there's no group think amongst latinos, in florida or anywhere else, for that matter. >> reporter: back at the villages, stan action his wife carol, and trump club members head out to a rally for president trump. and following some safety measures, they are set. >> time to go in. we're just going to follow the crowd.

>> reporter: as the crowds arrive, the green fills up with rows upon rows of trump golf carts. yet in this swing state, no opportunity to reach out to potential voters goes unmissed. finally the president arrives and takes the stage. >> you're always fighting for me, and i'm always fighting for you, and i appreciate it. >> always has a great crowd, and everybody's enthusiastic, and there's entrance with the helicopters, so exciting. >> reporter: we met back up with stan and carol as they exit. >> i don't believe he got any additional voters, because i honestly believe everybody there was going to vote for him. >> but he did ask that everybody go home, call your friends, your neighbors, your relatives, and get them out to vote. >> reporter: as enthusiastic as some village residents are after the rally, it has others concerned. >> usually i wear one mask, but today i'm wearing two. because when president trump came here and had the big crowd that didn't wear masks or social

distance, i feel like the risk is much higher for me. >> president trump won the villages back in 2016. is the goal just to peel away enough support here that it could make a difference in a really tight election? >> yes, exactly it. we have a lot of republicans for biden that joined us and a lot of independents for biden and that's what we need, to make those numbers voting for him a lot less than they were last time. >> reporter: steven will make it one fewer. his decision partly rooted in the legacy he wants to leave for his grandchildren. >> i think about how they're going to judge this somewhere down the road when they know what happened when the history books are written. what did you do, grandpa, during the 2020 election? you said you were a lifetime republican did you just do that because that's what you've always done, or did you do what you thought was right? i want to be able to tell them i did what i thought was right. >> reporter: for "nightline," i'm rachel scott in the villages, florida. >> our thanks to rachel. up next, breaking down the

final sprint to election day. ou. ...could be all your soft surfaces? odors get trapped in your home's fabrics and resurface over time. febreze fabric refresher eliminates odors. its water-based formula safely penetrates fabrics where odors hide. spray it on your rugs, your curtains, your furniture, all over your home to make it part of your tidying up routine. febreze fabric refresher, for an all-over freshness you'll love. ..."you have cancer." how their world stopped and when they found a way to face it. for some, this is where their keytruda story begins. keytruda- a breakthrough immunotherapy that may treat certain cancers. one of those cancers is advanced nonsquamous, non-small cell lung cancer where keytruda is approved to be used with certain chemotherapies as your first treatment if you do not have an abnormal "egfr" or "alk" gene.

keytruda helps your immune system fight cancer, but can also cause your immune system to attack healthy parts of your body. this can happen during or after treatment and may be severe and lead to death. see your doctor right away if you have new or worse cough, chest pain, shortness of breath, diarrhea, severe stomach pain or tenderness, nausea or vomiting, rapid heartbeat, increased hunger or thirst, constipation, dizziness or fainting, changes in urine or eyesight, muscle pain or weakness, joint pain, confusion or memory problems, fever, rash, itching, or flushing. these are not all the possible side effects. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions, including immune system problems, or if you've had an organ transplant, had or plan to have a stem cell transplant, or have lung, breathing, or liver problems. today, keytruda is fda-approved to treat 16 types of advanced cancer. and is being studied in hundreds of clinical trials exploring ways to treat even more types of cancer. it's tru. keytruda from merck. see the different types of cancer keytruda is approved to treat at keytruda.com,

and ask your doctor if keytruda can be part of your story. and ask your doctor if keytruda a fan-favorite venue ever since they got gig-speed internet. xfinity gives them the ultimate home field advantage. it's their 12th man. protector... hey, amy? want to grab a seat? julie, we're live. it's game on with gig-speed internet from xfinity. start him, sit him, trade him. simple, easy, awesome. get started with xfinity internet for $19.99 a month for 12 months. plus, learn about gig-speeds from xfinity.

click, call, or visit a store today. woman: after covid, my hours got so we can't pay our bills. and now our family budget is gonna be hit hard with prop 15. the yes on 15 ads say it only raises taxes on big corporations. that's not true - we're all going to pay. $11 billion in new property taxes will get passed on to small businesses and farms. they'll raise prices... ...higher gas, health care, food...even day care. we can't make ends meet now. families can't afford 15. no on prop 15. we saw the earthquake grace in bold was offering a grant program. i signed up and i was actually selected it leaves the house in tack. you now know that in the next earthquake your house will be standing and we also got a discount on our earthquake insurance. if there is an earthquake. our house has a better chance of surviving in.

♪ now to the race to the finish line. donald trump and joe biden firing up final strategies to win over voters. which battleground states are likely to flip in their favor? a new abc news/"washington post" poll showing biden with a 17-point lead in wisconsin. in michigan, biden ahead by 7 points. the latest quinnipiac poll showing biden holding a 17-point national lead over trump.

i spoke with sara fagen, ceo of deep root analytics, and yvette simpson, ceo of democracy in america. sara, first question to you. the president is lagging in the polls since his win four years ago a lot of people are wary about poll numbers. trump says they're fake. do you think he could pull off a win despite being behind, and how much does biden's high favorability play a role here? >> i do think that people are frustrated with polling because of the 2016, although hillary clinton won the popular vote in 2016 and the national polls called that. the state polls are off for a variety of reasons, which i think are still problems today. i think some of them are more accurate than others. but there's a lot more state polling in this election, in part because of what happened in 2016. so i think you look at an average, and that's how you determine really where the race stands. in terms of the vice president's favorability, this is a very different election than 2016.

hillary clinton was underwater. she and donald trump were both unfavorable on election day by a majority of voters. that's not the case with joe biden right now. he's got about a 50% favorable rating. challengers typically get vote share around their favorable ratings. >> yvette, several traditionally red states like georgia and arizona are possibly trending blue. how have demographic changes in these states impacted the political landscape? >> what we've seen is a lot of energy, especially among black and brown voters in georgia and arizona. we've been activating black and brown voters for months who are energized to come out and support vice president biden. so i think the big difference we're seeing is we're seeing a rise in the number of voters of color, particularly women of color, in states that we traditionally don't win. folks are worried about donald trump getting another four years, and that has really caused people not only to be motivated themselves. we're seeing people go out and bring their whole families,

bring their communities. >> sara, the fact that biden has made these traditionally red states competitive means trump has to campaign more. but does he have the bandwidth and the money, and what's the victory strategy for him? >> he has the money. presidential races i don't think -- money's not the most important factor. there's such -- they're so driven by earned media. the demographics of the country are changing, but changing in both directions, you know. you see states like georgia and arizona. particularly around the large cities. they're youngerer, they're more affluent, they're less white, a demographic today more in line with the demographic today. the same was true in the industrial midwest. they're older, they're whiter, they tend to have less education, they tend to be more base trump voters. and so there's very much a scenario where we could be surprised on election night, where in georgia or in arizona,

which have been historically more republican, go democratic. whereas michigan or pennsylvania, where the vice president is probably up 6 to 8 points in both of those states today, actually goes for trump. >> sara, a follow-up to that. what's a must-win state for the president, do you think? >> i think all roads for president trump lead through florida. there's really no path for trump to be elected president if he does not win florida. if he does win florida, he still has a more narrow path than the vice president. but that is an important starting point. >> yvette, do you agree with that math? for you does it come down to florida or other states you're going to be watching closely tuesday? >> florida matters, byron. i want to say the advantage right now for florida is us. there's 43% increase in women of color voters this cycle over 2016, 330,000 more women of color voters voting this election, voting early.

and those are democratic-leaning voters. we actually think florida is in play. >> one silver lining for president trump is republicans significantly outregister democrats in this -- this year, so they've added over 100,000 more voters to the rolls. which typically is indicative of a better ground game. >> trump has been making lots of campaign stops in battleground states, biden as well. we're six days out. what can both men do at this point to get out the vote, get out their base, and more? >> right or wrong, one of the decisions the trump campaign made in the early days of the covid pandemic is they weren't shutting down their campaign. they've been out doing events, they've had a ground game. the biden campaign has only recently started putting people on the ground in these states. and i think in a close election that can have an impact. and trump i think has the advantage overall. >> i will say for biden, one of

the things that's been great is him showing up in places where you don't expect him. i think him going to places like georgia where he needs to show strength, where we can actually win. in iowa where we need to win ascendancy. i think that's going to pay off very well in the days leading up to and certainly on election day. >> yvette, sara, thank you as always. good to see you. >> thank you, byron. >> we'll be right back with "the final note." but some things are too serious to be ignored. if you still have symptoms of crohn's disease or ulcerative colitis even after trying other medications, it may be a sign of damaging inflammation, which left untreated, could get much worse. please make an appointment to see your gastroenterologist right away. or connect with them online. once you do, seeing the doctor is one less thing to worry about. need help finding a doctor? head to crohnsandcolitis.com now roomba vacuums exactly where you need it. alexa, tell roomba to vacuum in front of the couch. and offers personalized cleaning suggestions

for a clean unique to you and your home. roomba and the irobot home app. only from irobot. roomba and the irobot home app. you try to stay ahead of the but scrubbing still takes time. now there's powerwash dish spray it's the faster way to clean as you go just spray, wipe and rinse it cleans grease five times faster dawn powerwash. spray, wipe, rinse.

♪ a reminder, for information on how to cast your ballot, check out the how to vote page on fivethirtyeight.com. that's "nightline" for this evening. we'll see you right back here tomorrow, same time. thanks for the company, america. good night who's supporting prop 15? governor gavin newsom. the governor says prop 15 is, "fair, phased-in, and long overdue reform", that "will exempt small businesses and residential property owners." join governor newsom. vote yes on 15.