>> announcer: live from abc news election headquarters in new york city, here again, george stephanopoulos. 4:00 a.m. wednesday november 4th and this election is not over by any means. that's what we know right now, 222 electoral votes for joe biden. 213 for donald trump. 23 states won right now. some big states outstanding. let's start with arizona there in the southwest. we had about 82% of the expected vote in now for the last hour they are still counting there. joe biden has a five-point lead. tom, what more do we know? >> maricopa county, of course, the biggest county in the state of arizona this, is where phoenix is, scottsdale, mesa, has a little bit of everything. how you want to see how the rest of the state will do because so much of the vote will come from here, 06%.

4:00 in the morning we can tell you joe biden is overperforming from where hillary clinton was 81% of that vote in but still 20% of maricopa is out. one of the reasons why we can't project the state just yet. one of the stronghold, pima, tucson, 60-38, overperforming there. the trend so far and it's been holding for the last two to three hours, you would know better than me, democrats are in a good position in arizona but it's just with 20% out you just can't project it yet. >> whit johnson, the vote is just trickling in, that remaining vote. >> reporter: we're getting more clarity on the outstanding ballots that exist. we just talked to maricopa county officials again and we keep going back to them because as we mentioned maricopa county makes up at least 60% of the vote here in arizona. within the next ten minutes but talking to my producer, it still hasn't come up they were trying to do the final dump of results and this is the in-person votes from today.

they were counting those throughout the night and thought they were going to finish that up so could get those results at any moment but there are still several hundred thousand outstanding ballots and they gave us some clarity on that. we talked about the near 250,000 absentee ballots that people dropped off in person. some of those were actually dropped off over the weekend. if you remember the early voting period stopped on october 30th, some people dropped off their ballots over the weekend and then you have a separate category of people who walked into the polling locations today and dropped off their ballots as well. when we went around and talked to voters we saw people doing that. that still amounts to several hundred thousand outstanding ballots so what we're seeing from the republicans, governor ducey, marsha mcsally, they are telling people to pump the brakes and want to make sure every vote is counted. democrats on the other hand are feverishly doing the math. one reason i got into journalism

i was told there wouldn't be a lot of math involved so i can't tell you if president trump can make up this ground. but democrats remain extremely confident that they're going to hold on to the win tonight. >> we're waiting for one more dump of votes coming we hope shortly. we have to take mother break. we'll be right back. , watch your blue light lanterns, blast those eardrum bangers! look at this one: he's trying to pick up the mail! hah! silly... oh... silly humans. who do you think you are? pain will bring you to your senses. you cannot keep this up! pain says you can't. advil says you can. when panhe doesn't justs mmake a pizza. he uses fresh, clean ingredients to make a masterpiece. taste our delicious new flatbread pizzas today.

panera. okay, so, magnificent mile for me! i thought i was managing... ...my moderate to severe crohn's disease. until i realized... ...something was missing...me. you okay, sis? my symptoms were keeping me... ...from really being there for my sisters. so i talked to my doctor and learned... that's us. ...humira is for people who still have... ...symptoms of crohn's disease after trying other medications. the majority of people on humira saw significant symptom relief in as little as 4 weeks. and many achieved remission that can last. humira can lower your ability to fight infections. serious and sometimes fatal infections, including tuberculosis, and cancers, including lymphoma,... ...have happened, as have blood, liver, and nervous system problems,... ...serious allergic reactions, and new or worsening heart failure. tell your doctor if you've been to areas

where certain fungal infections are common and if you've had tb,... ...hepatitis b, are prone to infections, or have flu-like symptoms or sores. don't start humira if you have an infection. be there for you... ...and them. ask your gastroenterologist about humira. with humira, remission is possible. and we are back at abc news election headquarters still waiting for key votes to be counted. let's bring in the director of domestic studies at stand toward and former policy director for mitt romney. give me your read of the night so far. >> well, you know, i think the president has outperformed a lot

of the expectations. are we really going to tell a story about the hispanic vote shifting or not understanding for thinking carefully enough about the texture in the latino community. in other words, the latino community in miami-dade different from the one in maricopa county, arizona. are we seeing a real shift in the latino vote or something that's limited to certain segments? i think that will be an interesting story we'll pursue. >> how about the story of your director of the public policy program? whoever wins whether it's joe biden or donald trump, it looks like the democrats will retain the house, the senate will be very close. either way republicans appear to have the edge right now. how is the next president of the united states going to govern this country? >> well, you know, either way the senate plays a really interesting role. the senate remains republican which appears as though will happen. it's either going to be a bulwark against joe biden going too far to the left on policy, so something like the

coronavirus relief legislation we might see in january. the fact that there's a republican senate there makes it maybe a $2 trillion package instead of a $3 trillion package. some things he may have wanted to do on energy yet constrained by that republican controlled senate. if donald trump takes over he's still got to deal with a democratic house but the question is, how does the republican senate now factor in? does the republican senate then try to work as the broker between the democratic house and president trump? you know, might we see action on something like prescription drug pricing which a lot of people have said would be a bipartisan priority so these are the things i'm going to be watching for but the senate is going to play a very key role in the policy-making process going forward. >> lanhee chen, thanks very much. nate, i come to you once an hour to tell all of us what you're looking at right now. how you see the map changing. what you think the key factors are that will decide the race. >> at this point it's more state

by state so kind of learning which ballots are outstanding, not about making projections as much. the one -- this is probably out of date, right? you might want to reset that but here's -- if trump wins wisconsin but biden wins michigan, different scenarios when you brought it up, wisconsin is where we might get the most news. milwaukee county is expected to announce its absentee ballots soon. kenosha county has absentees, the city of green bay. it will close enough for biden to overtake trump? we're trying to get as much information as we can. not clear how many votes are outstanding. >> it looks to the naked eye, warning people all night, those margins in pennsylvania, that margin is in wisconsin is actually quite large and would be difficult to make up. >> so wisconsin is a different category in that it claims it's going to have a count by some point early in the morning or maybe early in the afternoon today, wednesday. whereas michigan and pennsylvania said it'll take a few days so people should not i

think bucket those altogether. wisconsin, arizona, nevada which hasn't been called yet. these are states we might know relatively soon. michigan and pennsylvania might take longer. north carolina, we're waiting for late return ballots so by definition will take a longer period of time. georgia, we're waiting on a couple of key county, georgia is not terribly fast counting state so we have seven different stories and seven different uncalled state. >> wisconsin perhaps being that close, i mean maybe it's too early to make this conclusion but did we have another significant polling error in the state of wisconsin? i don't remember the exact average by the end of the campaign, but i thought that joe biden's margin was in the eight to ten-point range. >> he had a pretty big lead in the high quality polls by around 8 1/2 points. he was up double digits in some polls. even if he wins by one, i think pollsters will have to ask

what's going on there. in minnesota the polls look fairly close. that's a weird thing but wisconsin, giving headaches to democrats again although they do have democratic areas left to report. >> nate silver. thanks very much. we'll be right back. -small cellg cancer can take away so much. but today there's a combination of two immunotherapies you can take first. one that could mean... a chance to live longer. opdivo plus yervoy is for adults newly diagnosed with non-small cell lung cancer that has spread and that tests positive for pd-l1 and does not have an abnormal egfr or alk gene. it's the first and only approved chemo-free combination of two immunotherapies that works together in different ways to harness the power of the immune system. opdivo plus yervoy equals a chance for more days. more nights. more beautiful weekends. more ugly sweaters. more big hugs. more small outings. opdivo and yervoy can cause your immune system to attack normal organs and tissues in your body and affect how they work.

this may happen during or after treatment has ended and can become serious and lead to death. some of these problems may happen more often when opdivo is used with yervoy. see your doctor right away if you have a new or worse cough; chest pain; shortness of breath; diarrhea; severe stomach pain; nausea or vomiting; dizziness; fainting; extreme tiredness; weight changes; constipation; excessive thirst; changes in urine or eyesight; rash; itching; confusion; memory problems; muscle pain or weakness; joint pain; flushing; fever; or tingling in hands and feet. these are not all the possible side effects. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions including immune system problems, or if you've had an organ transplant or lung, breathing, or liver problems. here's to a chance for more together time. a chance to live longer. ask your doctor about opdivo plus yervoy. thank you to all involved in our clinical trials. ask your doctor about opdivo until i found out what itust? it actually was.d me. dust mite droppings? ewww. dead skin cells? gross! so now, i grab my swiffer heavy duty sweeper and dusters. dusters extends to 6 feet to reach way up high...

to grab, trap and lock away gross dust. nice! for dust on my floors, i switch to sweeper. the heavy duty cloths reach deep in grooves to grab, trap and lock dust bunnies... no matter where they hide. no more heebie jeebies. phhhhew. glad i stopped cleaning and started swiffering. we are back now at abc news election headquarters waiting for key vote, expecting some, we hope, within the next hour or two from those two key states, arizona and wisconsin. right now joe biden has the lead in arizona, donald trump has the lead in wisconsin. as we said we're waiting votes from both of those states. while we're waiting let me bring in mike muse from "the mike muse show." i know you've been active working with the biden campaign aimed at black males. what's your read of what's been happening and did vice president

biden underperform with that key voting mike, i think we don't have mike right now. sorry about that. let's bring back wisconsin -- let's bring back deb roberts up in wisconsin. deb, what more are we hearing about what vote we can expect in the next hour? i know they were hopeful we were close to getting votes from milwaukee. >> reporter: yeah, they are, hopeful, george. they're very, very -- it's very slow going because they've had a crush of these mail-in and absentee ballots, something they're not accustomed to doing. they usually have 6%. this time they have 60%. milwaukee county is getting them together. milwaukee, the city, still wasn't quite officially yet but we do hear that dane county, you heard about that, the very liberal town, those votes are coming in so we're talking about probably 400,000 votes between the two of them that should be

coming in, maybe within the next hour. but i also want to point out, george, though, because the president has hinted at fraud or maybe something that might be a little bit unsavory here but these election officials are bending over backwards to try to do this right. to dot the is and cross the ts. the commissioners are issuing statements talking about how careful they are being, in fact, in milwaukee county once they get all of these votes tabulated and should be happening very soon, the election commissioner will be driven just a few blocks away with a police escort with 12 flash drives to take the votes to the county so that they can one by one start to unload them. so they are taking the utmost care to make sure they handle these votes very, very well and they want to make sure they do it, you know, in the way that no one can criticize so i think they're taking probably great offense to the idea these votes could somehow be corrupt. they are going out of the way to make sure they taking

painstaking time still working tonight just like the rest of us, so hopefully we'll start to see some movement pretty soon and may get an idea, maybe not necessarily within the next hour but certainly within the next few hours of where wisconsin is coming down. the democratic chair in the state is feeling confident but it might be hard for biden to make up these votes, but, you know, again, wisconsin is always a surprise and we'll see what happens there. hopefully by the early morning hours. >> republicans say they are confident as well. i think we have mike muse now. thanks for joining us from sirius xm radio. i know you worked with the biden campaign on working with black males across the country. some indications that maybe that group underperformed for the vice president. what are you seeing tonight? >> yeah, i think that -- president trump had a really good effect on identifying with -- identifying with the black male vote. he was able to make inroads and the platinum program he created

had a strong conversation, a lot of black men were curious about entrepreneurship, they were curious about the economics. they were curious about the job market. i think the democrats have to recognize is that black women are the backbone of the democratic party. that is a fact. but they also have to recognize is that the black male vote is up for grabs at this point and it is possible not only in this election 2020 but they have to be mindful they want to go into 2022 and 2024 if they want to solidify the black male vote they have to do more towards that outcome. >> mike, thanks very much. let me bring in barbara comstock from northern virginia. your state has gone to joe biden. but donald trump is hanging this there winning everything else he won back in 2016 as we're waiting for arizona. >> yes, and i think some of the things that we haven't heard as much about tonight is, well, first of all, obviously mitch

mcconnell is a big winner here i think looking like he's going to be able to hold the senate obviously very narrowly but he has outspent and chuck schumer has been coming at him and he's been dealing with very difficult dynamics with both the administration and the president and within his own caucus and he is, you know, my number one star here and then secondly i think republican women looks like we'll pick up 12 to 14 new republican women who are going to be mostly in the house but a new senator also in joni ernst hanging in there so we have new female face, new latino faces also, you know, donna shalala was beaten by maria salazar who ran in 2018 and didn't win and now came back. i think we have two latino republican men who also won, so there is interestingly while the

president has been, you know, sort of hemorrhaging with suburban women in areas like where i live, there is a new coalition and somewhat of a realign many and i'm happy to see it includes more diversity for the party and then i should add thirdly and i also serve on the republican state leadership committee, republicans did very well tonight holding state legislatures in texas where there have been over 50 million spent against them, also in north carolina where we also picked up a lieutenant governor spot, first african-american lieutenant governor republican, also in florida, so -- i believe new hampshire, so there were some really great pickups and that will impact redistricting and going forward. so i think there's a lot of good wins here, obviously we are very divided. 50/50 after all the hundreds of millions spent. we're still where we were four years ago, somewhat surprised but a very divisive environment

but at least for the republican party, i'm happy to see more diversity here tonight and, you know, a farm team in the state legislature. >> barbara, thanks very much. right now you keep looking, jon karl, at all states coming in and dwire is still ahead as the vote ticks down right now and we'll look very closely inside those states to say, is there really enough vote left for joe biden to come back? >> yeah, it's deja vu from four years ago except the vote will take longer due to the circumstances of an election that took place during a pandemic with so much more mail-in vote which is simply going to take time. but you have the same dynamic. we were very late four years ago on election night looking at results in pennsylvania and michigan and wisconsin. that's what we're doing again and i think -- i mean, again, we've got to be patient.

takes time to count the votes but there's a lot of ground that joe biden needs to make up to win those state. >> nate silver, do you still believe that joe biden has more paths than donald trump? >> he has more paths, i mean the question is which are more promising? we'll probably get results from milwaukee city, absentee ballots any moment now and will tell us quite a bit. right now joe biden is about 100,000 votes behind where hillary clinton was in milwaukee county overall in 2016. if he were to pick those up with those absentees we basically have a tie in wisconsin so i would also segregate wisconsin and say this is a state where we'll know a lot relatively soon where michigan and pennsylvania, there is still a lot of votes outremaining? >> how about you, rahm? >> i got to take michigan and -- michigan and pennsylvania aside. i think you got nevada and arizona, i think, george, it's going to be so close it will go

to a recount in that area and then obviously i talked to different people, texted with different elected officials from different states but i think actually michigan, if that's correct about georgia, michigan is going to play a more dominant role in this scenario. but i actually think for this question i think if we started where joe biden had a lot of paths, the president had a narrow path. the president has a few more paths and joe biden's paths have narrowed down to just a few choice. >> despite the president's speech people inside the white house confident. >> yes, i mean, listen, i've had two prominent white house campaign people say to me, it's over. i mean, they believe that the margins are too great in pennsylvania and in wisconsin and they don't believe they'll lose georgia and they think they have a shot to win michigan. >> which just makes it incredible that he did what he did to undermine faith.

he could have come out and said this, is a great day for american democracy. we are on the verge of shattering the modern day record for voter turnout. there's a lot of vote to be counted. he could have echoed biden's words, i believe i'm going to win, but to go out there and say that people are being disenfranchised and say he'll go to the supreme court to stop a vote count on an election which as we said hours ago he's got a good chance of winning. >> got to take a break. we'll be right back. less oral steroids. taking my treatment at home. nucala is a once-monthly add-on injection for severe eosinophilic asthma. not for sudden breathing problems. allergic reactions can occur. get help right away for swelling of face, mouth, tongue, or trouble breathing. infections that can cause shingles have occurred.

don't stop steroids unless told by your doctor. tell your doctor if you have a parasitic infection. may cause headache, injection site reactions, back pain, and fatigue. ask your doctor about nucala at home. find your nunormal with nucala. and my favorite thing about the chick-fil-a nuggets ask your doctor about nucala at home. is how easy you can share them with your friends. they taste fresh, they're crispy, you can taste that every single one is unique. the top tier, best chicken nuggets ever. you guys should put that in the commercial. hi, my name is brayan and a little thing i love about the chick-fil-a mac and cheese is you can taste the different types of cheeses and the blends that they use, and everything just comes together. it's like a delicate dance, they're like perfection in every bite. than rheumatoid arthritis. when considering another treatment, ask about xeljanz... a pill for adults with moderate to severe rheumatoid arthritis when methotrexate has not helped enough. xeljanz can help relieve joint pain and swelling, stiffness,

and helps stop further joint damage, even without methotrexate. xeljanz can lower your ability to fight infections. before and during treatment, your doctor should check for infections, like tb and do blood tests. tell your doctor if you've had hepatitis b or c, have flu-like symptoms, or are prone to infections. serious, sometimes fatal infections, cancers including lymphoma, and blood clots have happened. taking a higher than recommended dose of xeljanz for ra may increase risk of death. tears in the stomach or intestines and serious allergic reactions have happened. don't let another morning go by without asking your doctor about the pill first prescribed for ra more than seven years ago. xeljanz.

back now, coming up on 4:30 in the east waiting for results from wisconsin and from arizona. we expect those perhaps relatively soon. it's going to take much long story get them out of michigan and pennsylvania, of course, the state of georgia and north carolina as we wait here to find out who will be the next president of the united states, donald trump now has 213 electoral votes. joe biden has 221 electoral votes and rick klein, i know you've been in contact with experts from both sides trying to figure out where the outstanding votes are. what are you hearing? >> several hundred thousands outstanding votes and they're more democratic than republican for a couple reasons. one is that they tend to be in more urban areas. those are democratically leaning areas. the democrats put a big emphasis this year on trying to turn out that early vote and pushing people to turn out early, to mail in their ballots, request ballots so for those two reasons

we're expecting we're talking about disproportionate democratic numbers when they roll in. some numbers out of wisconsin probably within the hour but as the numbers continue to roll in, it seems to me based on these conversations, the best shot joe biden has right now is to cling on in michigan as well as georgia. those are the two best opportunities -- >> better than wisconsin and pennsylvania. >> the numbers are too big to my mind to see a clean victory in pennsylvania. wisconsin may be a more complicated story and there's some people that still think there is a path there but, man, those are big margins to make up and it would just have to be enormous numbers of early votes that are basically all democrat. 75%, 80% for joe biden to be able to make up that gap. >> the question i asked nate silver. we saw joe biden had about an 8.4% lead according to polling averages in wisconsin, about the same in michigan, not quite that much in pennsylvania, whatever happens right now, it looks like it will be much closer than that

so might have had a systemic polling error again? >> a bigger one than 2016. the best early read i would have is that we didn't pick up the surge in trump voters. there were a lot of new biden voters but they were met at almost every turn by new trump voters and that helped hold down some of the marriagesens. it helped even hold on to a lot of so-called pivot county, the ones that went obama and trump. president trump found new voters in this election and matched them almost voter for voter against the voters of the democrats. this huge election i think a lot of pollsters thought if you had more turnout you'd have more democrats but it may be you actually captured a lot of republicans as well and that's why the numbers, i think, have turned out the way they have. >> jon karl, i see you nodding your head. >> i mean i think it's a colossal polling error. it looks like the overall popular vote will be much closer than much of the national

polling. and what we have seen in state after state after state is that donald trump found new voters and we knew that the democrats were expanding their base and the democrats did that pretty well actually. i mean, i mentioned texas where joe biden had about a million more votes than hillary clinton did. but donald trump somehow found a million more voters in texas to vote for him. >> terry moran. >> when we say find new voters, it means that there are people that the pollsters didn't think were voters to begin with. in other words, the country is changing. it's a major realignment that's happening. donald trump essentially broke the republican party. the republican party that we knew, you know, for a long, long time, the bush republican party, the reagan republican party, that's the wig party now. it's dead. this is the trump party and a totally different group of voters and demonstrates the power to attract at this early stage voters from other

demographic groups. that's the other big news in these numbers and they aren't large shifts but they are palpable shifts that donald trump is the one who is diversifying the republican party, which is bigger than people understood it to be because it's not the republican party anymore. it's the trump party. >> is that true, sara fagen? >> i think it's unquestionably the trump party and i think it's going to stay the trump party. one of the things we haven't talked about tonight is how few independent votes there were. i know they didn't get a lot of coverage but they were on ballots, and these third party candidates got almost no votes and that also contributed to both of these candidates doing better in many of these jurisdictions. we talk a lot about this shy trump voter. i often have thought it was about 3%. it looks like it was closer to 6% tonight. >> huge difference, sara fagen, thanks very much. we'll be right back.

4:30 in the east. we are waiti votes to come in in wisconsin and arizona. still waiting on nevada as well and know it's going to take longer in michigan and pennsylvania. georgia and north carolina. right now divided between joe biden and donald trump. 221 electoral votes for joe biden, 213 for donald trump. donald trump's republican party right now, what does he do in the aftermath if he is able to pull out this win tonight? >> well, listen, that's going to be the huge choice of the second term if he has one. and i think what he -- he continues to do a lot of things he had done already. you'll see h