hi there, this is kristen sze. as we wait for the big answer who will be our president for the next four years. we have a lot of ground to cover today. we'll hear from california democratic party women's chair christine pelosi and john dennis. we have the author of let the people pick the president, the case for abolishing the electoral college. first since we last left you abc news has called wisconsin and more recently michigan for joe biden, so you can see the electoral ma'am right now and the totals right now, biden inching closer to the magic anybody of 270.

he's at 253. president trump is at 214, although you can see 71 electoral votes still undecided. 24 hours ago we spoke with paul mitchell, vice president of political data of a data firm based in sacramento. i spoke with i all night long and i know you didn't get much sleep. so thanks for joining us, paul. >> thanks for having me. >> we went to bed with the president looking good. we woke up with things tilting biden's way. summarize the big picture for us right now. >> it's kind of two worlds. we're shocked that this is getting so close, that we've been through this process that, you know, this whole presidential race seems to have been going on ever since trump got elected is going to come down to potentially one electoral vote. on the other hand, for the last few months we've known that the most likely tipping point states are going to be michigan,

wisconsin, and pennsylvania, and it's turning out to be that. that essentially whoever won two out of those three states was really in the position to win this overall contest. >> uh-huh, uh-huh. ok. so can i just press you to give me a probability right now on a trump win versus the biden win? >> right now we're looking at about an 85% probability of a biden win. >> i mentioned that pollsters and forecasters all knew it could come down to this scenario with the last states and the ballots could take days. still, are you surprised? >> i mean, yeah. i think you have to be surprised. this is a, you know, a really an amazing election cycle with it coming down like this to the wire. these kind of close races are rare, even in congressional races and local races. when they happen it can be pretty shocking to see an entire race be decided by these last votes that are counted.

but the fact is that our country's really polarized and look to get this election over with and behind us and start to bring the country back together a little bit. >> let's dive into the nitty dprity a little bit now. plump wants vote counting to stop in michigan and pennsylvania. will that help him at this point? >> at this point he's not ahead. i don't know necessarily whether or not he would want to stop that. it's also just not how it works. in california, california's 58 counties are fill processing ballots, still going to be counting ballots for days. it's not like he's rushing into lake coup in california and telling them to stop their ballots. it's part of the process that's going on all over the country. we can't cherry pick and say these states at this particular moment in time should stop doing what they're required to do. >> right. is it possible for already counted votes to be thrown out?

it's one thing to not count certain ballots but to say somehow they're disqualified. >> once a ballot's counted, you can't go back in and retrieve that person's ballot. it's not tied to the actual person at this appointment. you could have a situation where an entire county's ballots were challenged. we've had situations where an entire election has been undone because of over fraud like we saw a few years ago with a campaign that was illegally changing votes on ballots. that's the remedy. the remedy is not try to find the 25 ballots and invalidate them. the ballots that are come in later that might not have a postmark, let's set those aside and not process those until a court decides, that is the thing that could happen. but once they're counted, you can't uncount them. >> the president is still interested in counting votes in

arizona. could arizona off a surprise that benefits him? >> yeah. i mean, there's still outstanding ballots. the fact is he's losing by a few points. in order to actually win the state he'd probably have to win the remaining ballots by about 20 points. that's what you would expect unless there's some kind of voter at tribute. >> the math is getting harder for him. what have we learned about what matters to voters in this election? >> we might take a little longer to really decipher that. as an example we saw some exit polls that said candidates -- that voters were looking for candidates that showed strength. some people thought, ok, well, that might be trump. others were saying they might be concerned about the covid crisis. that could be trump because they're saying they're concerned about shutdowns and everything. it could be democrats because they're concerned about their health or safety. i think there's going to be a

lot of up packing about what these results mean and sometimes i think we try to read too much into like deciding that everything in this election was about this one tiny subgroup of the electorate. this race could have been decided by voters in florida or texas or any number of states. >> even if mr. biden wins, i think the landslide did not materialize, so polling is under fire once again. the results i recognize are incomplete right now but where do you think the hits and misses were when it comes to polling? >> it's unclear right now. in 2016 they said it was an undercounting of lower income white voters who had not voted in 2012 and 2008. a lot of pollsters were making sure that they were waving they're examples to education, instead of taking partisanship and age and ethnicity.

that seems to have not actually done it. we ended up still having a systemic bias in the polling that undervalued the trump strength in most polls. the only poll near the end that actually saw trump's strength in the west was the poll for the des moines register. and that showed him winning by seven in that state. it was really seen as an aberration. the fact is that it was probably the one that was right on. there was some systemic problems with the polls not just in the midwest but also in florida, texas, potentially throughout the country. >> all right. well, you already mentioned that this election does show how divided we are as a nation. given that, do you expect elections to go like this for a long time to come? >> i don't think we'll have an election like this again. trump is a character who isn't

able to be replicated in the next election psycheful. we might consider more normalcy in the days ors year coming forward. really, it's unsure. we probably are going to take a little while to get through this and see how our politics is changed by this last four years. >> i don't even know if i remember what normal looks like anymore. paul mitchell, thanks so much. we'll talk to you soon. >> thanks for having me. >> yep. it's a debate that seems endless, should we

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over. regardless, the electoral college and the u.s. district court has been back in the spotlight. joining us to talk about the electoral college is jessie wagman, a member of "the new york times" editorial board and author of "let the people pick the president." thanks for joining us. >> thanks for having me. >> we know how the electoral college votes. when we vote we're not actually voting for the president. we're voting for electors who develop and vote. what's wrong with the system? >> we think we know how the electoral college works from high school. in talking with americans everywhere, many of us have a lot of misunderstandings, misconceptions and myths that we hold on to about how the college functions. two of the most important are the fact that we the people, regular citizens like you and me

and the people watching this show have no constitutional right at all to play any role in the choice of the president. that is entirely up to the decision of your state law enforcement. enforcement. state lawmakers, california, like almost every other state gives out its electors by the winner take all rule. all 55 of the electoral votes good go to the candidate who win the most votes in this case, which will clearly be joe biden. that's a choice they don't have to make. as we're seeing right now, to great states, maine and nebraska divide theirs up by congressional districts. joe biden won one that way and that could be what puts him over the top. these are things that are not in the constitution s. even though when we talk about the electoral colleges, we think it's in the constitution. this is something the states can change whatever they like.

>> maine divides up their electoral votes. how did they end up that way and not the other 48 states? could california just choose to go that way? >> sure you could. states have been experimenting with different ways of choosing electors. today we all do it by popular vote. we assume that's how the electoral college works. at the founding, a lot of states, the lawmakers chose them as electors. they didn't involve the people at all. most states converted to the popular election method that we all know today. yes, california, if it shows tomorrow for the next election could award its electors by congressional districts or any other method it chose. >> you mentioned the freedom that the electors have. i know some people will worry about that. you just need a couple of

electors to flip, if you will. can that perceivably happen? some people call them rogue electors or perhaps under the direction of a legislature that's controlled. could that happen? >> let's separate those questions out. there's twoishes there. the issue of whether or not the legislate sure can step in and change things around is its own issue. the electors have been with us since the beginning. it ties back to what the framers thought. alexander hamilton wrote that electors would be these thoughtful deliberative men and sat down and figured who would be the best country to run the country. it's never been that way. immediately after the constitutional convention, electors have been team players because they were either representing one party's candidate or the other. that's all it was and that's all it is today.

there's no incentive in the vast, vast majority of cases for electors to go rogue, as you say. the best example, look what happened in 2000. we had a similar electoral count, split in 2000 as we might have today. 271 for george w. bush, 267. he had two more votes than he needed to become president. >> well, a lot has changed in 20 years, too, in terms of the way people approach things. i wane to fold in a couple of questions from our viewers. barbara wants to know is there a chance to get rid to have electoral college. many attempts have been made and none have succeeded, right? >> more than 800 attempts have been made to abolish the college. it's clearly been a source of frustration and anger for people for more than 200 years. right now we are actually in the midst of the effort that's gone

furthest than almost any other and that's not an abolition of the electoral college but a different way to use it. the winner takes all laws, there's a movement which states agree to award their electors to the winner of the most votes in all 50 states. not the winner of their own states. the winner of the most votes everywhere. when states represent 270 electoral, that's what you need to win. when 270 worth of states this, you make the president the person who got the most votes in the country. it's far along. it's more than two-thirds of the way there. >> i hope that answers your question. i want to ask you, though, what about the argument that the electoral college, the way it is now, is needed to protect

against the teary of the majority. whether it's giving us too much power or completely neglecting the needs in more rural areas such as iowa farmers and if it's just popular vote, that means candidates are only going to come over here and campaign to us and meet our needs. what do you say to that? >> i hear that a lot. it's mistaken in multiple ways. first of all, i mean, majority rule is how we run every single hex in this country other than the president. i don't see why it's not good enough for the presidency as well. i think the majority should always choose the representative. this is not -- we're not switching over to some direct democracy here. we're still choosing our leaders. we're choosing our leaders by majority rule. even then, i think people misnabbed how the electoral college affects different states. rural areas right now are the places you describe where people feel like they'll be completely

ignored. do people really know how candidates campaign right now? when was the last time they went to wyoming or nebraska -- well, nebraska is a little different now. small states, rural states, large states, urban states are all ignored by both candidates every four years because they are safe states. they're states where nothing the candidates do can make a difference. it's the battle ground states we've been watching today, whether there's a few more thousand votes in georgia or michigan. those states aren't special. they happen to be very closely divided and a few votes one way or the other can make all the difference. that draws all the candidates' attention, all of air money, all their ad dollars, policy proposals and the rest of us are left out in the cold. this ignores americans. a national popular vote would force the candidates to try to win everywhere. >> all right.

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welcome back. it's been a roller coaster of emotions no matter which side you're on. we want to hear from both sides. joining us is california democratic party women's caucus chair, christine pelosi. how are you? >> good to see you. >> i'm well. good to see you. good to be with you. >> how are you feeling right now about where the race stands? >> i feel very hopeful. i feel very hopeful. it's a very, very tough election environment as everybody knows. gotten a little bit of sleep and a little bit of deep breathing but mostly like everyone else, refreshing the numbers and taking a look at the map, very

excited to see more women get elected to congress and though the house lost a handful of members in trump districts, the democrats did retain a majority and as for the presidency, it looks as though the path to joe biden's presidency was paved in these tough battle ground districts in the house and also through the west. >> but what do you make of the president's claim that counting ballots after election day needs to be stopped and he's dlamg electoral votes. he sent a tweet, georgia, north carolina, and maybe >> here are the facts. the election laws that donald trump ran and won under four years ago are substantially the same now, which is states determine their electoral process and states like california allow people to vote by mail and to cast that ballot

in advance of election day or on election day, turn it in and if it's postmarked on election day and received then or shortly thereafter, depending on the state, then it's allowed to be counted. it has to go through a signature match and verification. it's eligible is the point. >> that's what we're talking about, which is can we just have the president calm down and let the process work? it's the same process he won by four years ago. it hasn't changed. it shouldn't change just because it looks like joe biden might be taking some of those states. >> you know what? we're out of time. i have to reduce to a yes and no question. do you think a lot will still be ak flishd the scenario that we end up with a democratic white house, democratic house but republican senate and a conservative majority, 6-3 on the court? >> absolutely. joe biden is going to be the

president for all americans, not just those who voted with him. he has a 47-year history of reaching across the aisle and working with one another. a working partner in speaker nancy pelosi will get the job done. >> that was about 15 seconds but i'm rim pressed with how quickly you did it. thanks for joining us. >> thank you. likewise. >> we'

well, you just heard from the california democratic party women caucus chair christine pelosi. now we want to hear from john dennis. good to see you this morning -- >> good to see you. >> it's no longer morning.

this election has been like that. we were talking and were in a good mood. now the path to the 270 electoral votes has narrowed quite a bit. how are you feeling? >> i'm feeling fine. the president is concerned. i of course am concerned about it. i think there's a path and i think we need to power on and see how everything falls. >> is it your goal that every ballot is countsed and however that plays out, that's if way it plays out or do you wane to have the voting stopped and perhaps challenge or vose that were legitimately cast put aside. do you support any of that? >> no. i think we should count every valid ballot. here's the thing. we have to come out on the other side of this as a country. i think if one side or the other feels like something shady went on or something dodgy, we're not going to fare well. so count every valid ballot and

that would include post marks and that sort of thing. >> uh-huh. no matter what happens in the presidential race, ultimately i know that you're intercepting this election as somewhat of a vick for the gop no matter what in certain specific ways. tell us about those. >> the party's done well with minorities. donald trump did exceptionally well with minorities. we picked up a couple of seats in the house. we held the senate. we've created a new image for the republican party, which i think will last. in the end, if president trump can pull this through, i think we're looking forward to four great years ahead of us. >> all right. i want to ask you about the vote counting and the assertion that the election's over, stop counting. if the president was worried about that do you think he should have worked with the legislatures and saying let's beef that up so we can count the ballots on time or that the usps

makes sure the ballots are delivered. >> the elections are controlled by the states, so there's only so much that he can do. if he offers too much help it seems like he's putting his thumb on the scale. so i don't think -- i mean, i think there's some sort of false -- hoax running around here that somehow he was holding back the usps. of course that never happened. >> as the final guest of this half-hour, we get to chat two minutes longer on facebook live. we're going to take a short break -- no. the show's over. we'll see you on facebook live just to finish this conversation. thanks for joining us today on "getting answers." we hope you'll continue to join us every weekends. how much time do we have? >> 30. >> john, are you still with us. >> i am. >> if this doesn't go the tway president hopes, how long do you hope he goes out? 15 is seconds. >> i think he knows that if the courts rule in one direction, he

needs to exit for the sake of the country. >> great talking with tonight, america waits. and there is breaking news as we come on the air. movement tonight in the presidential election. the state of the race at this hour. news from the key states of michigan and wisconsin. late today, abc news projecting michigan for joe biden. abc news tonight can also characterize biden the apparent winner in wisconsin. getting him closer to 270. president trump and joe biden eyeing their paths to 270 electoral votes and all along, the key state of pennsylvania. if president trump can win pennsylvania, what happens? what will he need then? how arizona and nevada could play key roles. we'll take you through it all tonight. tom llamas standing by. and joe biden speaking late today after calling for calm and patience, calling supporters to keep the faith. what he said late today about what he sees in the next few