building a better area, 54 a safe and secure future, this is abc7 news. hi there, welcome to our daily program called getting answers. we are asking experts your questions after day at 3:00 to get answers at real time. we are focusing today on the new stay-at-home guidelines. let's break down everything that the governor said, this hwill roll out regionally, here is how the regions are divided up. northern california, the rural part. greater sacramento, bay area, san joaquin valley and southern california. if any of the regions fall below 15% icu capacity, then the stay-at-home order will take affect for three weeks minimum. right now, everyone but the bay area is projected to fall below

15% in early december. maybe in a couple of days. the bay area is projected to be mid to late december. now, once in affect, bars, wineries, personal services, hair salons, barber shops must close. these things will stay open. schools with a waiver. critical infrastructure, retail 20% capacity, and restaurants can can be own for takeout and delivery. meaning no more outdoor dining. the governor encouraged everyone to get outdoors for mental health and all nonessential travel is banned statewide, right now, no matter the region. a whole lot to unpack with our doctor who keeps us informed on the latest covid information on twitter. thanks for joining us on this big day. >> nice to be here. >> i want to do start with the

governor's stay-at-home order. how quickly do you see the bay area to reach the point. >> if we continue the surge, we may get there in the next couple of weeks. the hope is of course that we all turn this around. that people begin restricting some of their i have at thes even in advance of it. what we saw in june was things were getting worse very quickly and then they turned around over the course of a couple of weeks. that's what they have seen in france. so, hoping we would not reach that point, but if we stay in the same trajectory, we will be looking at a couple of weeks from now. >> do the you know how they predict when each region will reach that point? >> they are looking at the tren trends and plotting out what we know when you have more cases. how often that leads to more hospitalizations. and more hospitalizations, how many of them, what percent of

them will go to the icu and now, you know, we were pretty clue clueless in march and now having eight or nine months of experience, we have a pretty good detector, we can see trends in case positivity rate. leading a week or two later to hospitalizations and then more icu stays. so we have gotten better at making projections. what is the bay area's icu capacity, i was trying to figure it out. it's harder when it's by region as opposed to county by county. >> yeah, i don't know the answer to that. that's a good question. because, yeah, absolutely. you know, i know what it is in ucsf, and i know, you know, we can look up on the website and see, what it is in the city of san francisco, but they are aggregating the entire bayier bay area in to one big group. there's wiggle room. if a hospital is filled and a hospital in a neighboring county has plenty of capacity, patients

can be moved around like that. one of the challenges of this surge as opposed to the earlier surges though, is it is so broadly distributed. in june, we were getting patients from imperial county in southern california. and then southern california hospitals were full. now, everyone is surging all over the country. so, everybody has to, if your region is full, then there's no wiggle room to move patients from one place to another. >> right. i mean, you don't want all the regions to be full at once. we are certainly in the best shape. i wonder if there's anything we can still do at this point to turn that train around and prevent the trigger. it is sounding like you are saying it's possible for the bay area and it sounds imminent for so-cal and central valley. >> the other counties, the state is projecting they will reach the points within days. and therefore, it's probably baked in. one of the things that is kind of hard to fathom with covid,

but we are getting used to it. it's like looking at a star. what you are seeing now reflects what happened a while back. if your hospitals are full and your icus are full. that is from things that happened. exposures that happened two, three, four weeks ago. we are just beginning to see the impact of thanks giving now. >> what do those early indicators tell you? >> you know, they tell us that things are continuing to get worse. it's not obvious yet that they are doing to get much worse than they have been. but they certainly are not turning around and all the trend lines are heading north, and they are all go in the wrong direction. so, i think the bay area, the projection is that we won't reach that point for 2-3 weeks, that is enough time so if people in the next few days were more careful and mask wearing up to lows close to 100%, there's a chance we can turn it around and i hope we do.

>> help me understand this part. watching the briefing, i get that you get on the stay at home list as a region. but you get off as a county. how does that work? and what's the science behind that? >> yeah, i don't know the answer to that unfortunately. i did not have a chance to see the briefing. i have just seen the reports. the, i mean, the idea that you get on to it ask a region as i said makes some sense because the capacity is, you know, you can move patients around from county to county. if your region is doing so well that you have tremendous capacity in, within one county, you could see pulling off the list for that reason. i'm not sure what the rationale was. >> governor newsome announced that nonessential travel should no longer happen in the state of california. of course, this word coming down three weeks away from christmas, right? so, what does it mean for us. if we have plans to take a vacation to hawaii or anywhere

else, or if we were going to fly east to see relatives or drive to grandmas in los angeles, should we cancel? >> i think so. i mean i really to do think that, we are in a point we have not been before in california. certainly not in northern california. where we are in a stage of the pandemic where we have never experienced things like they have experienced recently in the midwest or they experience in new york in march or april. if we don't turn it around, we will. and we are talking about thousands and thousands of thousands of the deaths. so, you know, one of the things that is different about now is it is colder, people are staying inside. we have thanksgiving and we will have the christmas holidays, if people go about their business as usual, you have them going to higher rates of infection areas, and they will bring them back and we will be worse and worse and become overwhelmed, the

other factor is the vaccines are around the corner. so, if we can just, it's hard, it's really brutal on everybody. but if we can just act responsibly over the next few weeks or month or so. we, it's not like we are saying do this and we have no idea when, when the cavalry is coming and we may have to do it in the spring and summer. we can say with assuredness, if we do it now and we get through safely to january, we are going the to start see a world in which people are getting vaccine and those people will be largely protected against getting sick. >> that's the message that governor newsome was saying. i want to explore more after a short

and we are back with the chair of medicine is. you mentioned in a tweet that as cases go up in a region, the low cases become more dangerous and six feet apart may not protect you in a grocery store, can you explain that? >> yes, every interaction that we have, has an inherent risk. so, you know, if i'm talking to you and we are six feet apart, the chances that a viral port cal will fly across the room and hit you is relatively low. but, if the chances that i infected is very, very low as it would have been in the bay area a month or two ago. then, the chances of you getting sick from had that interaction is infintessimal, ifsimal, ifsi, virus, same interaction, the

chances you will get it is higher. every time we have interaction, the risk is a combination of how risky is the interaction, multiply it by how likely is it that a person i'm interacting with is carrying the virus. as a region gets hotter from a standpoint of covid, the risk of the same interaction is higher. >> something that was safe in september or october may not be as safe now. okay, and the governor today also mentioned the vaccine is coming. so this is temporary, but vaccine news, pfizer expects to ship only half the doses it intended, because materials in early production did not meet the standards. what does it mean for us? >> well, the vaccines are going to roll out over the next several weeks. and you know, the early predictions were that there would be 20 million people in the united states that would be vaccinated within a month. and if pfizer is having production issues that may lower it a little bit on the other

hand, there's some other companies that are working on vaccines and it's possible they will be another vaccine approved in the next month or so. the point is we are not going to have as much vaccine as we need in the beginning. that it's really going to be a rolling thing. where we get more and more shipments and vaccinate more and more people as the months go on. and it's really not going to be til march or april that we have gone through the initial high priority groups and then, get to a point where you can go in to your local walgreen's if you are 40 years old and healthy and just want your vaccine that will be available for everyone. the high priority groups are now, we have a sense of what they will be. it's starting with health care workers and people in long-term care facilities and we will move on to essential workers and other industries. and then to people over 65 and people with other health conditions. but, when you add up all the groups in the united states, that is 144 million people. so, we don't get to enough vaccine being produced and distributed to just get those

groups until properly april or may. >> all right, i know you only have one minute left and i want to respect your time, but you held grand rounds today with regard to school reopenings and how public schools can be open to the general student population which is not the case right now. most public schools. what do you think it all hinges on? >> well, one of the things we have learned is the schools are safe, the schools are one of the few bits of happy news in all of this this. it's less risky than we thought. the kids have a low rate of getting and getting sick and a low rate of passing on the infection, particularly kids under about age 12. and so, i think, you know, one of the things we have learned over the last several months is you probably can get the cycles open safely, even when there's a fair amount of virus in the community if you are thoughtful about masks and distancing and testing particularly for teachers. we are hoping the teachers are in the group of essential workerers that get their vaccine

pretty early. but, even in a region that is beginning to see a lot of covid cases. it should be the schools that are the last to go because we now really are appreciating the impact of having schools chosed on kids and parents on their mental health and the economy. >> we certainly are, as a parent, i can attest to that. thank you so much for your time and insight. >> my pleasure. thank you. >> all right, as you know the gove governor's order took a different approach that we have not seen before. talk about the impact is abc7 news contributor and insider phil matier, good to see you. newsome's new order though not kicked in yet in the five regions is aing a lot of heat. are you surprised by that? >> no, i'm not. because we sort of have been here before. it's been a dimmer switch that is going up and down. and ever time it goes done. there are questions raised.

it's really, once again, it's the hair salons and the nail salons that are being closed. as you pointed utterlyier, let's say retail stores are staying open at 25% capacity. you know, the initial shut down, the big one in march andapril was intended to keep people apart from each other. and we shut down everything, retail schools and everything, because we not only, it was not because necessarily it was unsafe to go in a store. or to be waited on. but because we didn't want people out on the streets. parking or things like that. we didn't want people congregating. this is a midway in between. the retail is staying open. er stores can stay open. restaurants are going to be closing down to take-out as well. there's a pushback and forth. interesting in los angeles, a group of restaurants are suing, questioning the order, saying show us the scientific proof that indoor dining or outdoor dining is unsafe. and it's -- a judge wants to see that proof pretty quick and it will be interesting to see if anybody has data to back it up

because so far we have not seen it. >> which had leleads me to the question, does this order have teeth? like you said, they want to see the proof. in beverly hills and pasadena, they are ignoring the order to say no more outdoor dining. where the the enforcement? >> that was the situation from the get-go. remember, we started out with recommendations and encouragement and we want to educate the public. but we have always fallen short on enforcement. even with fines proposed. we have not seen people getting tickets for it. gatherings or after hours clubs that were in clear violation. but for a mask order and something like that, no, and that is one of the things here. whether it was people on the beaches or people in restaurants, who is going to enforce this? now, you can enforce it because restaurants have health permits. and you can pull a health permit on a restaurant if they are

found in violation. but for a lot of it, yes, we don't have the enforcement, it's self enforcement. >> we were talking about the fact that it's a regional approach as opposed to county by county. i want to ask you if you think the approach will get the bay area counties and elected officials to start working together again. it seems like they started out in unisone in march, and no longer. >> they started out in march, and then they found out that every county was different. had different numbers. you know, also, remember the governor said, it's going to be up to the locals to decide. he put out the blanket ones and then said, the locals can do more. could not do less, but they could do more. and some in the bay area chose to do more. this regional approach, we will see what it is. it's for a couple of weeks. what they are trying to do is three things. one, change or modify people's behavior. try to keep it in line through this time. and two make sure that the hospitals have the icu units and

the available beds to handle a surge and three, try to keep the economy from completely cratering in a time when people's unemployment benefits and other things are running out. you have to remember, the first shut down was sort of floating on the air of a lot of money from washington. it was floating on the air of a lot of uncertainties about the hospitals. whether we were going to be able to handle it and it was, it was gripped by the idea that we didn't have even enough masks to go around. a lot of it is changed. so, we are looking at modified order now. i don't think it's as deep or as dark or as roll back as being sort of promoted as. but, you know, you don't get as much attention by saying, you know, fire, fire, fire, you have to say fire! to get people's attention. >> that's absolutely very true. i mean, he did keep stressing the end is near, the vaccine is coming. do it temporarily. >> that will be the challenge for the governor and the governors and the bidened a h -

the biden administration coming in. we had a hot lot of criticism, when the vaccine comes out, it will be a task to get that out and get people to take it. it will be a real test. what we are doing as was pointed out, we are trying to maintain through the tunnel to get to the light at the end of the tunnel. but that light has to be constant and it has to work. >> all right, we are doing to take a short break. when we come back, we want to talk about elected leaders can get people to do what they want, which is follow the rules when they themselves are not follow how about poor fred wilson? what a shame. so soon after retiring. i hear his wife needed help with the funeral expenses. that's ridiculous! -he had social security. -when my brother died, his wife received a check from social security, all right-- for $255! the funeral costs were well over $8,000. how on earth did she pay for it? fortunately, my brother bought additional life insurance

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another that went to the french laundry, she issued an apology, what is her message? >> essentially look, you know, she is saying i screwed up. all right, she is saying i screwed up. but the question is, did she really? i'm not going to put her in the same category of gavin newsom and the mayor, who went with their family. on this one, for example, she goes up to napa, and it's a dinner at the french laundry. all right, that is a screw up, because what is the mayor of san francisco doing at the most exclusive restaurant in northern california unless it's a charity event. all right, that's just -- they say in politics, it's the optics. but the he cou-- but the second was three households. hers the louis household, the baretta louis, wealthy and a birthday party, they had her, london brooed, and the mayor,

and a person and a party of seven or eight, and they were observing the rules in napa that they were that day. and a couple of days later, the rules changed. but the story came out after the rules changed. this is, you know, this is just wrap it up and say okay, what is the best way to handle it? apologize and try to move on. any time you have on say yes, but, yes, but, it's the same thing. >> you are right the result is not good if you are a politician an. i spoke with a world journal reporter, and that's what she said, she felt bad. it's the spirit of it. it's not so is much whether technically it violated anything. she is a political leader. i want to ask you, she could be taking a hit, we don't know for this. newsom's approval rating before this was at 64%. do you think it's where he is at now? he has re-election coming up in two years? >> there's a lot changing in the last couple of weeks.

not the least of which is the virus is continuing on. when this first happened in march and in april, nobody was thinking that it was going to be, we were going to be talking about it in december. remember, it was going to get through the summer. we are here in december now, and we are looking at onward to march. the things that are going to affect gavin newsom and it's kind of funny. the french laundry becomes the nail in the wall on which you hang the picture. the question is what is the picture going to be? if the picture is, he has got kids back in school. he is taking care of small businesses. and the vaccine is out there, and available and we are moving forward in a way that people actually feel, that's one picture. if the other picture is kids are still not in school for whatever reason, he not get the teacher's union union on board. he cannot get the schools reopened and clean. if small businesses are continuing to suffer, with 25% or less of what they were used

to making, and if the vaccine is not getting out there or people are not taking it or whatever it is. that picture gets hupg s hung french laundry peg and he has trouble. >> i like that analogy, phil, thank you so much, you can read his column on wednesdays and sundays. we made usaa insurance for members like martin. an air force veteran made of doing what's right, not what's easy. so when a hailstorm hit, usaa reached out before he could even inspect the damage. that's how you do it right. usaa insurance is made just the way martin's family needs it with hassle-free claims, he got paid before his neighbor even got started. because doing right by our members, that's what's right. usaa. what you're made of, we're made for. ♪ usaa

>> take care. >> welcome back, let's just go ahead and break down the guidelines. the stay at home order will roll out regionally. the regions are northern california, greater sacramento, bay area, san joaquin

southern california. right now, everyone but the bay area is projected to fall below the 15% mark in early december. the bay area is projected to be mid to late december before we hit the point. now, once in affect, bars, wineries, personal services, hair salons and barber shops must close. these will remain open. schools, with a waiver. that are open now. critical infrastructure. retail, at 20% capacity, and restaurants can be open for takeout and delivery. so, no indoor dining, no outdoor dining once you reach the 15% point. but you can still can do a deliverier takeout business. the governor did encourage everyone to get outdoors for your mental health but all nonessential travel is banned statewide starting right now. so, don't go visit is the message the doctor is saying. try to not travel for christmas. skip that drive to southern california to visit relative thes. wait until next year.

again, nothing happens immediately today. but for many of the regions, it could be in the next day or two. thanks for joining us on getti tonight, the deadliest day yet since this pandemic started. new records in deaths and in new cases. 2,700 lives lost in just 24 hours. more than 100,000 americans in the hospital fighting this virus. tonight, news from several states coming in, including california. the governor there preparing his state for potential lockdowns. where icus are near capacity. the mayor of los angeles telling residents to, quote, cancel everything. in ohio tonight, where they're calling for mobile morgues. the cdc director now acknowledging the u.s. was severely underprepared for this pandemic. tonight, president-elect joe biden just making news, saying he has talked with dr. fauci and has asked him to stay on in the same role. and biden saying he's inclined to ask americans when he's 10augurated to wear masks for