welcome to our daily program "tting answers." we're asking experts your question every day at 3:00 to get answers for you in realtime. today we're tall about covid-19 and vaccines with a chair of the ucsf department of medicine dr. bob walker. but first there is a lot to cover in the political world both in the state and in the nation. so let's begin with lonni chen, a fellow and he served as a senior adviser on policy to the national republican senatorial committee. good to see you again. >> hi, kristen. >> before we get to the imt and the politics of the covid-19 relief package, let's talk about state politics and the fate of governor newsom.

the new approval rating out today, done by the berkeley igs. what does it show. >> it shows that governor newsom could be if trouble. what voters in california are expressing frustration over how the pandemic has been handled in california. we've heard stories about the slow rollout of the vaccines, the lack of transparency in decision making, some of the challenges in the unemployment insurance program. so i think a lot of this stuff is very additive and voters are questioning whether governor is the right person for california and the poll reflects that. >> and to dive into the specific numbers. 46% approve of his performance right now. 48% disapprove. and 45% would vote for him in a recall election. but 36% would recall him. so lonni, if you're a big numbers geek and remember back

when ray davis was recalled and schwarzenegger was voted, how does this compare. >> there have some similarities in terms of the amount of public discontent. you'll recall that effort back in 2003 was galvanized by a couple of issues. one was an issue involving the car tax, the vehicle licensing fee and the other one was some rolling blackouts that we had in california and voter frustration around that. so recall efforts really do tend to need to be animated by one or most two issues and in this case what we're seeing is this frustration over covid-19. there are many different elements to it, many different angles to it but fundamentally there are some similarities in terms of the amount of voter frustration out there about the governor's performance. >> so given that, these vulnerabilities, those hoping to unseat him certainly see an opportunity right now. so former san diego mayor kevin

falkner is making the media rounds today after he kicked off his campaign to unseat him yesterday. and here was his campaign video called promise. let's take a look. >> i know we could clean up california. and that is why i'm running for governor. i'm running to make a difference. not to make promises. if we're willing to think differently, to demand results, we could make the powerful answer to the powerless, we could kick the insiders out and bring the outsiders in. >> all right. so obviously faulkner a republican. talk about who else might enter, john cox, someone who lost to governor newsom in 2018, his name is in there. talk about the dynamics here. >> it is interesting. initially the thought was that both faulkner and john cox would be in a position to run against newsom in the standardly scheduled election which would be next june for the primary and then next november for the general election. obviously this recall efforts has moved up the timeline for

the candidates. but i expect they'll be making a pitch very similar to the one you heard there in kevin faulkner's video, that it is time for change and bring in folks that have not been part of this sort of insider establishment that arguably has failed california over the last several months. that is the kind of argument i would expect to hear. i think it will be consistent across whoever decides to run against gavin newsom. kevin faulkner does have a very good record from his time in san diego. that is something he's going to trumpet as he seek this is office and those who get in will be able to make a case about why it is their different and separate and apart from newsom and what he's been doing. >> how -- the questions appear on the ballot if me make it to the ballot, you who does it appear. >> so in california, we have this interesting system where voters will have to decide on the same ballot whether, in fact, the governor should be recalled. and if the governor is to be

recalled, they have to make a choice as to who they would like to replace him. and this, you may recall back in 2003, led to the situation where you had a number of different candidates, dozens of candidates running to be the person who would replace gray davis who was the governor at the time who was recall and schwarzenegger came out of that process. so it is a process that voters in california have access to and it is not a situation in other states and it is a unique progress and we'll have to help voters understand the choices they make if this recall ends up being successful. >> it is not newsom versus candidate a. or b., it is do you want to get rid of newsom and if the answer is yes, then you go to the pot of, i don't know, eight or ten candidates and who gets most votes becomes the governor and you don't need a majority.

so if there are two equally viable gop candidates, say that is faulkner and cox, would it be wise fos for the democrats to put up their own candidate, not that they want to send a message of no confidence in newsom, what if they put up a candidate try to keep the governor's office in their column. >> there is a challenge. if there are republicans splitting the pot that does make a opportunity for the republicans to win the governor's seat. and it is tough for republicans to win statewide in california. it has been. we haven't seen a republican win statewide in california since the mid 2000s. so this is going to be a challenge regardless. if you start splitting that up, that is more challenging. but we'll be lucky if we only have eight or ten candidates. you remember back in 2003 it was dozens, almost a hundred different people running for the governor's seat. i fully expect this time similar kind of free for all to emerge. >> okay.

it is like we're completely on the same wave length right now. i was about to ask you, could a republican in the state and could we use the term free for all. but there, you've said it. so let's switch over to what is happening in d.c. right now. former president trump's lawyers today filed papers that make it clear what the defense strategy in his impeachment trial will be starting next week. so what will they argue? because this is interesting. i mean several of mr. trump's lawyers left him because they wanted to argue something different than what he wanted to argue. >> essentially the argument is, look, freedom of speech protects the president's ability to essentially say what he was going to say. we'll see whether this is something that people find compelling or not. the result of this, kristen, in terms of the heimpeachment tria what is going to happen, it is pretty well predetermined. i think republicans have indicated enough of them have indicated that they don't intend to vote to convict the former president so the chances are

very, very good that this impeachment proceeding kind of comes and goes without too much actually resulting from it. and i think frankly for both sides there is a sense that they want to just kind of get through this period of time and get on with business, whatever is going to come next, whether it is the covid relief debate or some other debate over some other policy matter. but the outcome of this particular impeachment proceeding does seem as though it is relatively predestination at this point. >> the outcome does seem to be pretty determined. but let's talk about the covid relief. a group of ten senators met with president biden to pitch a smaller covid relief package, one that you advised them on, this meeting while report the redly very cordial, didn't seem to change anything. what are your thoughts. >> i don't think it changes very much. but joe biden has an opportunity to work with republicans, to work across the aisle. the republican package, the one they proposed was a lot smaller

than the one biden wants to put out there but it has a lot of biden priorities. it has money for covid testing and vaccine distribution and direct stimulus payment and increase in unemployment insurance. i think biden has a chance to work with republicans and take half a loaf now and down the road he will have an opportunity to do that potentially in a more partisan process. but for now why not take the opportunity to work with republicans, capitalize on that bipartisanship, and then as i said, if he wants to go for more later, he could go for more later in a partisan effort. we'll have to see where the two sides go. this is the golden week to get this done. because once they start impeachment on monday, it is hard for them to get anything done on a bipartisan basis or frankly at all once this impeachment trial gets rolling. >> i think that everybody agrees on. that will set the tone and

perhaps change the tone and perhaps for the next four years. lonni chen, great to talk with ks. pmi a cod- drb

dr. walker. we could put it in now. and we are back. we are seeing a drop in covid-19 related metrics but we're also still seeing issues with vaccidt soniso awer you questions, go ahead and put them on facebook live on our live stream, the chair of the ucsf department of medicine dr. bob walker. thank you so much for joining us again. >> my pleasure. >> want you to look at the overall landscape and tell us what keeps you up at night right

now. what is your biggest concern? >> variants. that is it. other wise, everything would be pretty good. the cases are coming down, the test positivity raft te is comi down. it is still higher than any time -- higher than it was during the summer, but coming down pretty steeply. i think we have a government now that is paying attention to the science that is put in place terrific people and the vaccines are miraculous, yes the rollout was bumpy but it is moving along faster and we're getting an increase supply. new vaccines coming online. the big thing that causes me to lose sleep is these variants which are already here and likely to grow and we're now in a race against a foe that runs faster than the one we were racing against a few months ago. and so that is really the end game. if it wasn't for the variants, i would feel good that we would get to something resembling normal by the summer with the variants i think it is a little bit of a crap shoot. >> so -- crap shoot. you never want to hear that when

we talk about predictions and forecast. but it is. so what do we know about the variants, which ones are sinking their teeth into california and the u.s. right now? >> the one that is spreading most here so far is the b-117 which is the u.k., united kingdom variant. and we've identified a few hundred cases of it but we haven't looked very hard or deeply. so it has to be more proevalent than that. we still don't know whether it is more infectious or we've caught some por case and that requires more of a look. we've seen a few cases of the variants from south africa and from brazil. those are the ones where the vaccine doesn't seem to work as well. but the one most worrisome is the u.k. variant. they identified the first cases of it in november and by january it was about 70% of the cases in london. so it spreads faster, it may be a little bit more dangerous as

well. a little bit higher fatality rate so that is the one that i think we're most worried about. >> so given that it is against -- a race against time, against the variants, to try to smother them before they mutate and get more powerful. how does this effect the suggestion to take a look at maybe just giving more people the first dose as opposed to holding them back to save them for the second dose for people? what do you think? >> well, the key thing is we get as many people vaccinated as quickly as possible and i think the new administration is really focusing on that like a laser. it is comforting. we should have done it a couple of months ago. it is comforting. let me make clear that everybody needs to get the second dose. it is a question of timing. and whether you stick sort of slavishly to the schedule that you must have a second dose of people that could get it three or four weeks later and you're going to hold it in the freezer to be sure that they get it.

i think we could become more flexible about that. if you get your second dose a few weeks late it is no big deal and in order to -- in doing that we could be more flexible and get more first doses faster, that i think will ultimately save more lives. and the cdc has announced that they're going to -- they have expanded the window so it is okay if you get your second dose six weeks out rather than three weeks out. i think being a little more flexible to get the first dose sooner will be the right call. >> why can't more factories kind of all gear up and switch to making the already approved pfizer and moderna vaccines? i think the defense production act is being revoked -- invoked, so can't the biden administration say everybody start making this and be partners to moderna and pfizer even if you don't have anything to do with them normally? >> they're working on it. and there are -- there is some help from other manufacturers gearing up. the problem is it is really,

really sophisticated stuff. ive just interviewed for my podcast someone who used to run the cdc and ran vaccines for merck and this is not like even when we talk about gearing up to manufacture ventilators, that is much, much easier than gearing up to manufacture this complex technology. so i think it is more hopeful to approve these other vaccines, that seem to be coming online and seem to be quite effective and to really push the companies to get out as much vaccine as possible. and then to fix the distribution bottlenecks. it is getting better in california. we have from a of a few weeks ago when we were distributing 30% of the vaccines that we have and now up to 60%. hope we could get that up to 70% or 80%. i think the combination of new vaccines coming online and getting approved, the moderna and pfizer pushing even harder and getting the distribution under control, i think we'll get where we need to be. i don't think a lot of

additional factors is going to help that much. >> people who have had covid may be able to get away with one dose. what do you know about that. >> it looks like if have covid, we new your immune but we don't know how long will will last. the first shot of these vaccines, it is sort of like getting two shots because you already had your immune system that has seen the virus and it is geared up and developed antibodies and it is not very strong antibody response, with you worry that it will wain over time. maybe they could get away with one shot. the problem is to figure out how to operationalize, that we then test people for antibodies, is that going to slow down the process. there is thinking that needs to be done. if they only need one shot, begun that is another strategy that may make more vaccine

available to more people. that would be terrific. >> we're going to take a short break on the air but we'll

back with the chair of the ucsf department of medicine dr. bob walker. also the new host of a podcast can i love for you to tell our viewers about because they could learn from listening to your twice a week podcast. >> it is called in the bubble. i inherited it from andy slavit who is the senior adviser to the covid, so i'm running it for the next four months and it is a whose who of guests talking about all aspects of covid and we've had everybody from dr. fauci to tina fey on. >> i could not get either one of them so i look forward to your conversations. here is a question from sharon. she said she's been on a steroid inhaler for many years, should she be concerned about getting the vaccine? >> no. absolutely not. and in fact, i assume you're hon

a steroid inhaler because you have some illness that requires it. if it is asthma or something else that. that would put you at increased risk if you get covid so all the more reason to get the vaccine. >> what i want to look at the numbers, from test positivity to icu, but deaths are still pretty high up. you could explain that? is that expected? >> it is expected. it is sad. i mean, at a national level we are still averaging about 3,000 deaths aday. and it is hard to believe. we've had more people die than the population of oakland. it is staggering, the problem with deaths is that they are a lagging indicator. cases will go down and then hospitalizations will go down. but the people who are in the hospital who ultimately will die, they're probably already there. and so you don't see deaths start to come down for about a couple of weeks after you start seeing cases come down. >> are you worried about super bowl weekend and possible viewing parties as kind of

another driver to kind of spark a new round of transmissions? this weekend, sunday? >> yeah. i am. i think that we saw what we worried about, that there was a spike after thanksgiving. we saw a spike after the christmas holidays and anything that brings people together and gets them to behave in a way that we now know is not the right way is bad and the problem i think now is people are hearing the message that the cases are coming down so maybe it is safe to do that. and of course it is a year into it so everybody is unhappy and fatigued from all of this. so they want to let their hair down. but the level of virus in our community is still super high. it is come down a lot still much higher than it was last summer and so, yeah, i'm quite worried about that. >> so you think there will be more surges even with vaccines being given to more people? >> we do not yet have enough people vaccinated to be anywhere near herd immunity. and so if your super bowl party everybody is vaccinated, then

i'm not that worried. but unless it is a party of doctors and nurses, or a party in a nursing home, chances are it is not that. that some people are vaccinated and some people that aren't. so there is still a lot of virus hanging around if people let their guard down and then there is every reason to see a spike. whether we see a spike and have cases go up again or won't come down as quickly as it is coming down, hard to know. but it is definitely -- it is as risky as it ever was and this two wo be a bad time to get infected because you're probably going to get vaccinated and if we could just hold out and continue to be careful, there is a finish line that we could all see. >> what about this scenario, is this safe for two couples to get together at one couple's home and one couple, they're doctors or nurses and they've been vaccinated but the other two people, the other couple, they haven't been? >> it's safer than if nobody was vaccinated. but it is not completely safe.

and the reason is that the people that are vaccinated, we still do not know for sure that they can't be carrying the virus and therefore spread it. the people who are vaccinated are not going to get sick and die from being exposed to the other people. but the people who are not vaccinated, there is still some risk and i could tell you i live in a house with one person vaccinated and one person not, my wife and i still have not changed my behavior. i do get a hair cut which i wouldn't have done before. i will go see the dentist and i won't have done that before. so i'll do things for myself that i won't have done before. but in eterms of how i act aroud my unvaccinated wife, i'm as careful as i ever was. >> i'm sure she appreciates that you're able to get a hai better >> i want to get to tom's question and this is the bigger question. why are some people would are over 75 finding it very difficult to get an appointment? it is so challenging and the rules are different from county to county. health care system to health

care system. is this how we should be doing it? >> no. it is been a mess. and part of this was a lack of federal guidance until recently and so everybody kind of figured it out themselves and every county came up with different rules. and the supply is still not very good. and so the -- i could tell you at ucsf we are vaccinating our patiences over 75 and moving through them fairly quickly but there is not enough supply as quickly as we'd like. so try to be patient and be as careful as you've been. if you are close to getting vaccinated, this is a bad time to get covid if you've made a year, please do everything you can to stay safe until you get it. it is coming. >> last on air question is what is your thought on double masking? or even just not wearing cotton masks any more and going strictly to something with more filtration like n-95s and kn-95s all of the time because of the variants? >> yeah, the variants are still a relatively low prevalence issue in our community: there

are reported cases but it is not a major factor. i, before i was vaccinated, i wore a double mask and whether you do it with a two ply mask or two masks sort of dealers choice. i do think a single ply cloth mask is relatively low level of protection and i think it is reasonable to wear a two ply mask if you're going to the store for example. >> dr. bob walker of ucsf, the chair of medicine there and host of t

walker. thanks souch for joining us we newsom and the rs" today.

impeachment trial and covid-19 and vaccines with dr. bob walker. we'll be here every wee tonight, one of the deadliest shootings in the history of the fbi. two agents killed. three wounded serving a search warrant in florida. the suspect investigated for, quote, violent crimes against children. opening fire on the agents. s.w.a.t. teamsushe scene. an armor's vehicle crashing through the gates. president biden and his comments just a short time ago. nor'east tonight, the next major system already brewing. are we in for another? more than 17 inches of snow here in new york city. coastal flooding and dangerous waves in massachusetts. vacination sites shut down again today and now the new storms. one set to move right across the country again and rob marciano with the new timing tonight. the coronavirus and the