building a bettbay area, moving forward, finding solutions. this is abc7 news. good afternoon , i am liz kreutz . we are asking exare your questions every day 3:00 to get answers for you in real time. we are talking about the latest information on the delta variant, its impact on fully vaccinated people, and mass eating indoors. first, the top www.abc7news.com is a 3.9 earthquake that many of you felt, including us in studio. to answer your questions is our seismologist, dr. lucy jones,

host of the broad podcast, getting through it. thank you for being here, dr. jones. >> thank you for having me. >> anytime there is an earthquake, it puts us on edge. do you think this was a one off incident? is there any indication that more earthquakes are coming? >> there is nothing that allows us to know whether moore is coming. unfortunately, these are earthquakes with big aftershocks. this 3.9 has not had any aftershocks at all, which is showing us it is a small sequence now. the odds of us having more now is very low. >> it took a moment to look back at the history of the hayward fault. earthquakes of this size happen once every 5 to 10 years. it is part of the regular pattern. it is no reason to think it is anything special. >> yesterday's earthquake was half the depth of an average

california earthquake. what does that mean? does that increase concerns? sounds like maybe not. >> no, it is quite deep. it is nine kilometers depth. >> okay. >> we give you automatic location so people can know right away. sometimes the automatic system is not quite perfect. when the human checks the data, sometimes things shift a bit. the final depth given to this was nine kilometers. that is pretty classic. this is one of the most interesting fault lines. some of them are so small you never map them. they have little threes and we never have a name. the biggest earthquakes use up over a bigger piece of the pauline. a magnitude 7 rick is a really long fault. in the bay area, only really the hayward and the san andreas

are the only ones long enough to give you a manitou 7. sometimes a little piece goes and you get a magnitude 4. hayward is one the sometimes has big ones and sometimes creeps without earthquakes and sometimes haves little ones. the san andreas only has big ones, this will sometimes have both. >> okay, i got it. i read about the hayward fault. it sounds like it has been over 100 years since there has been a massive earthquake on the hayward fault line. >> in 1868, there was a magnitude 7, about, we didn't have seismographs back then. it was called the great san francisco earthquake until 1906. they killed something like 50 people. it was one of the deadlier earthquakes in california history. it was in the middle of the city and they had bad

buildings. they had not learned how to build better buildings. it is capable of very damaging earthquakes. in fact, the usgs conductusgs cc study to say, let's imagine we have that magnitude 7 now, what would it be like? that was the haywire scenario. they were looking at the impact on the digital economy, since it is so based in the bay area. a lot of the details of what a 7 would be like have been worked out. you can find that online. >> that's good to know. >> on the show, we are streaming live on facebook in real time. one question comes from carol. she says i read there was an expected 6.0 or larger predicted yesterday or today. does this relieve that chance? >> that prediction is not based on science. there are people going around making predictions. we have a system in the scientific immunity to evaluate predictions. they have never chosen to submit their predictions for

evaluation. there is essentially no scientifically credible way to predict the timing of large earthquakes. the little ones in the big ones start the same way. the big ones go to be a bigger part of the fault. it does not in and of itself, i will say, generally, in my podcast i have a session on this, what is it mean when you have a lot of earthquakes? when you have an earthquake, you make more earthquakes more likely. normally they are smaller and we call them aftershocks. 5% of the time the aftershock is bigger than the main shock and we have to change the name and call the first one a for shock. when you have earthquakes, it does not reduce it, there is no scientifically credible increase in probability now. >> i do feel like you hear a lot about that, it's time for another big earthquake, that

type of wording around earthquakes, but there is this idea, that there might be the big one coming, it is about time for that? you make the hayward fault is there. it is accumulating stress. on average, every 150 years, it has to have a big earthquake. it's now been 153. the time since the last earthquake doesn't matter very much. every year has less than 1% chance of having an earthquake. here in southern california, we have the san andreas fault that has a big one every 100 to 150 years. it's been 350 since if they can go 350, why not 400? doesn't mean it has to happen this year. what we found out is we can talk about average time. in fact, it is a large

variability of distribution involved in that. i have a 1% chance every year. >> okay. alexis is asking, are earthquakes related to the earth drying out in any way?>> no. climate change is doing a lot of awful things. it will cause more meteor logic disasters. it does not affect the rate of earthquakes. even though the changes in the climate are obviously big, and large, that is all up in the atmosphere. this earthquake was nine kilometers down. there is six miles of rock between what is happening and the atmosphere, and where the earthquake is happening. it's like the idea of earthquake whether, every culture with earthquakes has a tradition of earthquake weather. it's whatever was happening in their memory. we've never seen any

correlation between weather patterns and earthquakes. they are just too far down. >> you like most california cities are prepared for when the big one hits? >> no. let me qualify that and say, we are much better prepared than we used to be, but not nearly as ready as we should be. there are big problems, on the government side, we have not dealt with the issue that many of our existing buildings are dangerous. when we figure out something is a bad thing to do an earthquake company and we change the earthquake code, doesn't make the older building disappear. the retrofitting problem is very large. the other thing, when we look at the real impact of the disaster, this is a community that falls apart. the real solution to earthquake resilience is going and talking with your neighbor about it, and figuring out how you will

work together to bring it back afterwards. the community-based planning and organization, and communication, californians tend to not do community as well as some parts of the community. that is where the solution lies. i say, before you get the kit, go talk to your neighbor and what you will do together. and i wrote this piece in the la times, where you say, people, not kids is the most important thing you can do to prepare for an earthquake. explain what you mean by that, and some examples he gave that people can do. >> the reason is seriously, there is a lot of research on how communities come back disasters. communities call high social capital, people who have a lot of connections with other people do better. it makes sense, right? you have people to turn to and

people who will help you, place you can stay when your house is damaged, all of those things are what make a community that can come back. as i said, as californians, we struggle with this. i suggest to people, use the people you know and the places where you already get together. maybe you have it church, synagogue, or mosque where you care for people. have you ever talk to about what you do after an earthquake and how to help yourself? could you find out whether the people you know there are okay after an earthquake? have you had a communication drill works how would we connect with each other. >> your kids school is another place. they want to do a bunch of stuff. can you help each other? how do you work around that. teachers are told that they are supposed to stay for three days. what happens to their kids? if you talk it out together, you can find out how to help each other. all of these things become

easier. >> that is true. because we have been most impacted by wildfires here in california, i know i have had that conversation with my neighbors when it comes wildfires. we will meet at this school or this parking lot. we have not had a conversation about earthquakes, because we haven't had a big one in a long time. >> the world series earthquake was over 30 years ago now. that's the last big one. we all noticed yesterday, but that's not a big earthquake. loma created something like 30,000 times as much energy as he earthquake yesterday. >> wow.>> really big earthquakes are different. they release it over a acre area over a longer period of time. we get these little earthquakes thinking that the earthquakes are okay. we forget how bad the big ones are. >> dr. lucy jones, we love

having you. we thank you for all you do. thank you for joining us today and answering all of our questions. >> i am glad to do it. thank you for having me. you can find out more about preparing for earthquakes at www.abc7news.com. you can click on prepare norcal. you should follow dr. lucy jones on twitter. we will get into the delta variant and fully vaccinated people

i was injured in a car crash. i had no idea how much my case was worth. i called the barnes firm. when a truck hit my son, i had so many questions about his case. i called the barnes firm. it was the best call i could've made. your case is often worth more than insurance offers. call the barnes firm to find out what your case could be worth. we will help get you the best result possible.

♪ the barnes firm, injury attorneys ♪ ♪ call one eight hundred, eight million ♪ welcome back, there is a lot of talk about the delta variant as world health organization is urging those that are fullpeepthr s on indoo

even if you are vaccinated. what is going on? we will talk about this today with dr. monica gandhi. thank you for being here. are there new studies or reports on the delta variant and fully vaccinated people? what we know from that? >> actually, the studies all show that the vaccinations cover the delta variant very well. there are four lines of study. the antibodies are just fine against delta. there are t cells, which we have a lot of study showing after vaccination, they cover the delta variant. there is a third buddy showing, just from the other day, we get memory b cells that you can keep in the bank. they are in our lymph nodes after vaccination. they produce antibodies that are just working against the variant. it's on a different type of virus. it is just a couple

mutations. we also have really good evidence of real-world data. the public health foundation of england showed after one dose, 80% effectiveness against the delta and 96% effective after two doses with pfizer. with astrazeneca, he got up to 94% effective against the delta variant with two doses. there is nothing telling us that the vaccines don't work against the delta variant. >> what are the hard numbers when it comes to those that are fully vaccinated still getting the delta variant? >> what is happening in the uk and israel is that they do a lot of swapping that of those that are astigmatic and vaccinated. if a variant is more fit, it is spreading in unvaccinated people, you can get in your nose. if you are vaccinated, but then you fight it. it really depends on the cycle threshold of the pcr test. it tells you if you have a high

or viral load in your nose. the uk has shown us that these are low viral load infections when you are back needed. people are not going into the hospital at they are vaccinated with the delta variant. they are astigmatic or they have mild symptoms at they do get it in their nose. that proves to me that the vaccines are working. people are going to the hospital, but they are unvaccinated. >> that reminds mereminds mereme weeks after my sister got fully vaccinated, she tested positive for covid. she was so confused. i'm wondering if that is what happened. she got some in her nose? >> yes, and i call that a vaccine success. the antibodies fight that exposure and keep the viral load low. the cdc has recommended not to quarantine if you have been exposed after you have been vaccinated, and not to test if

you are asymptomatic after vaccination. you can get the viral loads in your nose, and you have to look at the pcr test and see if it is a high viral load. >> if you have a little bit, are you at risk to spreading it to somebody is not vaccinated, maybe a child? >> not if you're viral load is low. the pcr tests go through multiple cycles to trigger. if you have a high cycle threshold of your pcr test, which is greater than 30, it means you're viral load is so low you are not infectious to other people. that is why the testing, if we don't incorporate cycle thresholds, they mean nothing unless we incorporate that into our pcr testing. all of this postvaccination testing is leading to confusion. >> yes, it is. is. is. is. >> long covid looks like it is

more problematic, and it happens after symptomatic or severe disease. the best study done is in nature. it was about a month ago. it showed a list of all of the studies. you had to have very noticeable covid-19 to get the massive inflammatory response that would lead to long covid. getting a bit of virus in your nose, and you fighting that infection does not look like it will lead to long covid, even with the delta variant. >> i'm looking at facebook live, we have a question from daniel. if you recommend that somebody recovers from covid-19, do you recommend they get vaccinated?>> this is a great question. the cdc will tell you yes. france, italy, germany, spain, and others will say one dose. there is so much data now that after you have had infection that you might just need one

dose to get you back to the antibody levels that someone who has not had an infection needs to get to to get to go doses. germany would say you are fully protected after having normal infection. everyone is different on this. my current recommendation is, i do believe the data that you only need one dose if you been infected in the past. there are 12 studies on this. a lot of us talk about the studies all the time. >> that is fascinating. i thought you were just going to say of course, go get vaccinated. >> that is the standard cdc position. everything changes. it is important to understand the reason that countries do things differently is they are all looking at the data. the rate of reinfection after natural infection is very low. >> okay, i am getting the rap right now. we will be back with you right after the commercial break. stick with us, we will talk about the

welcome back. we are back with infectious disease specialist, dr. monica gandhi. ask your questions on facebook live. we have good questions today. we just talked about the delta variant. we will now talk about masks. for you personally, dr. gandhi, when do you keep your mask on? if ever. >> i have been fully vaccinated since january. i do not wear masks unless the business asks me to, or my workplace setting asked me to. i feel very protected. i also feel that i cannot spread it to others. that's another important reasim that the masks in place. >> your take, as you probably know, this is the scientific community, is different than

the doctor. >> says he is wearing his mask indoors at the supermarket. have you talked to him about this. >> we did medical rounds together. i did politely disagree with him. he is my department chair, so let's remember that. i do respect everything he says. i will say, i wrote an article on may 18 in the washington post, defending the cdc guidancd the vaccinated people denied wear a mask. even though i was as apprised as everyone else because it seemed so abrupt, there was really good evidence. the vaccines are very effective. they make it so you cannot transmit. that has not changed. nothing has changed there would make me say that guidance is in sound. the cdc has no intention of changing their guidance. i don't think they will go back on that guidancethat guidancethe

delta variant. >> where we see an increase of urgency from the world health organization for people to keep their mass song? >> the world health organization is not about this. they are representing the planet. on the planet, 10.7% of people have been fully vaccinated. 3 billion doses have been given out. we need 11 billion doses to cover the planet. that means are places where there are lots of surges. you are surrounded by a lot of virus. this happened in india when there was a wave. i would mask as a vaccinated person if i was in a place with high community transmission. this is not happening in the united states. we have been going down with our caseload in the state of california and the city of san francisco, our caseload is very low. we are not even at a moderate level of community transmission. >> we hear that. i hear you, yes, totally, but then you hear yesterdayhear yesy

says we are advising people to wear a mask indoors. then you think, what's going on? do you think that will happen here as well? do you think san francisco will follow suit? >> i don't think the bay area will follow suit. they have kind of indicated that they will not do that. i'm not sure what made l.a. do that, except for the fact that i totally understand why they are scared . they went through a horrible surge. the difference between now and then is palpable. it is immunity. we have high vaccination rates. there was a study over the weekend from los angeles the 82% of people have antibodies in l.a., not just from the vaccination but from natural infection. that is keeping the case numbers low. i understand the fear. it is not scientifically indicated. >> we have time for one question?

all right, 30 seconds, do you think one dose is sufficient in the youth. there is concern with the second dose?>> this is a great question. there is the concern with myocarditis. the cdc looked at them and thought these cases were very mild. they will give us a batch of data about 10 to 15-year-olds after their second dose. i am waiting on that to know. i am convinced now that those cases were mild. i want to wait to decide when to give my child the second dose. i did delay it. he is 13.

thank you for joining us on this interactive show, getting answers. we talked toed toed toed toed to

lucy jones and yesterday's 3.9 earthquake. we talked about the delta variant, vaccine effectiveness, and masks indoors with dr. monica gandhi. we will be tonight, extreme heat emergencies as we come on the air. tracking dual heat waves in the east and west. more than 60 million people under extreme heat alerts from coast to coast. heat emergencies from washington, d.c. to philadelphia to boston. washington state topping 110 degrees. more than 4 50 people in oregon requiring emergency care for heat-related illnesses. highways buckling in the heat. nearly 50 wildfires burning from california to montana. ginger zee standing by. new reporting on the deadly building collapse in surfside, florida. heavy rain stalling the search for possible survivors. debris falling from the side of the building that's still standing. and the warning just last april. the report claiming structural

damage has g