is abc 7 news. hi there. i'm christine zee. you're watching getting answers live on abc 7, hulu live. we ask experts your questions ever day at 3 to get answers in real time. we'll talk to the father of calvin riley killed five years ago while playing pokemon go. the search continues for his killer. the delta plus variant is being detected in santa clara county. joining us to talk about this is ucf department of medicine chair dr. bob walker. it's been a while. delighted to have you on today. >> thank you. i wish i didn't have to be

here. >> it will be nice one of these days when i go, "why do we need to talk to dr. walker?" that day is not now. how worried are you about this delta plus variant bay area? . >> there's's no great evidence it is substantially worse and no great evidence it will spread and take over from delta. so i'd say it's at the level where we need to keep our eye on it. but right now, the main problem in our lives is the regular old delta variant. >> so with regard to the regular old delta, santa cruz county announced its case rate has doubled in the last two week. san francisco's positivity rate has hit a 15-month high. tell us why is this happening when we have over 70, 80% of the population vaccinated in many bay area counties? >> were a it is case, and the test case really is with a level of vaccination that the

rest of the country aspires to. is that high enough to beat back this variant? and the answer is no. and that's a sad answer. two months ago, if you said to me, "we'll be about 75% vaccinated in the bay area," i would say we would have local herd immunity, that that would be high enough to keep the virus spreading. we'll hear about a case or two, but it wont spread. that's not right with delta. delta is 2, 2 1/2 times better at its main job, and its job is to infect people. with 75% vaccinated, that's not a high enough vaccination level to get us to anything resembling herd immunity. san francisco has gone from 10 cases 6 weeks ago to over 200 cases a day, and,cf medical center, we've gone from one covid patient to about 40. the surge is very real here. >> i think one thing has has helped me understand why delta is so much more poetnd and kind of a game changer is its

effective reproductive rate. i think, if you can kind of explain how, you know, before you had one infected person with regular old strain of covid, you know, giving it to two or three people, and now, with delta, that 1 person is giving it to how many more? if you can kind of explain that. >> yeah. it's a useful number. it does get a little complicated, but i think it can be simply food that with the average person with the old covid gave it to three other people plus minus a little bit. the average person with delta gives it to about seven or eight other people. and so when we think about herd immunity, it's actually derived from a mathematical formula from that number. if the average person is only going to give the to three people, if you can get two out of three people vaccinated, you're going to block the transmission train. if the average person can block seven or eight other people, 78% is not high enough. you need to get closer to 90. that's why we're seeing the

kind of spread we're seeing. >> this is where i'm getting a little depressed, because we are never going to get to 90% vaccinated in this country, the way we're going. we can't change, you know, what's happening out there, the discourse, the misinformation. we can maybe bump up the numbers a little bit, and we are seeing more people get vaccinated for the first time now with delta, but if we're in the going to get to 90, then what? >> well, i wouldn't be shocked if the bay area got to 90, but there's no question that the country won't get to 90. the bay area will get higher when the vaccine gets approved for kids five to twelve and then ultimately approved for everybody. this will bump us up. i think vaccine mandates are coming and are here. and that will bump us up. i think the fda full approval is going to come in a full weeks. that will bump us up, too. here's the depressing news. i think we'll probably get to above 90% immune, but -- in the country, but we will get there with 50 or 60% vaccinated and the rest of the people having had covid, and unfortunately, a

fair number of them will get very sick and some of them will die. now, how long their immunity will last both from vaccines and from a case of covid, that is an open question, but i think this thing is so infectious, this new variant, that i think, if you are not vaccinated, the likelihood is very high you will actually get infected, okay. so how does masking change that equation? right now, right? one infected person giving it to eight people. we're in where bringing that reproductive number down to under one, so how does masking help? >> yeah. it lowers it quite a bit. the virus doesn't really change in its characteristics, but those numbers are what can -- what happens in the natural state? someone gets covid, and people aren't being careful. people are congregated the way they normally do. soft you can get everybody masked, and masks not only decrease the chance of someone catching it, but also the

chance of someone spreading it. if both parts are masked, the person who has it, the person who is a recrip ingredient, you markedly lower that number. that's why when there is so much covid around, as there is now ever where in the country, including the bay area, and we're not at the vaccine rate or the immunity rate we need to have, then everybody needs to be masked in high-risk situations. i still don't think you need to be masked outside. i think, if you're getting together with a couple of vaccinated or small number of people you know to be vaccinated, i don't think you need masks. but if you're going into a place where there's a lot of people whose vaccine status you don't know, then everybody needs to be mask, or that reproductive number is so high, that someone in there with covid is likely to spread other people.

everybody is seeing the ages of people with covid have gotten younger. parking lot of that is older people are more likely to be vaccinated, and younger people are less likely because they've chosen because they were eligible. in some case they're kids and they're not eligible. what we don't know yet is whether delta is far more likely to infect and make sick young people. it's a worry, because it does seem to be not only more infectious, but maybe a little more serious. most of the reason we are seeing more young people in the hospitals with covid is not necessarily delta. it's the fact that there are more young people who are not vaccinated. >> i see. okay. i want to talk about some big vaccine news today. first of all, the moderna study, right, it came out, shows the vaccine was effective, i think, six months afterny the second shot. pretty much not losing effectiveness, is that right? >> that's what -- at least the top-line headline. i haven't seen the actual data

yet, but the headline read 90% efficacious. i hope against all cases. sometimes you have to wonder are they talking about severe cases? i'm assuming they're talking about all cases. if that's true, at least that study says it hasn't lost any of its effectiveness after six months. it comes in a little bit of contrast to some pfizer data, showing there was a loss of effectiveness after six months. so i think we'll have to wait and see. i've been going under the assumption that particularly high-risk people whose vaccines were more than six months ago may be fairly early in line for boosters. if it turns out that the moderna data shows there hasn't been any less of effectiveness, that will be assuring, and that group may not need boosters quite so soon. >> when we look at the numbers, 93% effective, 95% effective. we have to remember we are individuals and how well it works on you as an individual, you just don't really know. and there's so many factors. >> i guess there's one more point, is some of at the data

may have come from the predelta ever area >> ah. >> that's why it's so important to look at it. pfizer data shows it does lose some effectiveness after six months when the virus that we're talking about is delta. so you really have to know know about both of things. >> right. >> moderna also says boosters will probably be needed by winter. i heard something about working on a covid flu combo shot. do you think that's a good idea? >> it would be more efficient if we can get it. i mean, you know, flu remains a threat. last year was a very easy flu year in part because of everybody wore masks, but there's no reason to think the flu won't be a threat. if you can go and get a single shot and it happens to be a shot you get in the right time frame for the flu season, then that makes life a little bit easier. >> all right. we'll talk about vaccines, masks, a whole lot more, and kids going back to school when we come back with dr. bob

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seconds. during break, we were talking about mass secking. lots of people have questions about that. right now, given our situation in the bay area with the delta variant, do you think vaccinated people need to wear them even outdoors as well? i know indoors there's no requirement now in most counties. but what about outdoors? >> i don't think so. i think, you know, delta is more infectious. it's not that you can't possibly get it outdoors, but i would worry with delta tours only if i was in a really, really close setting where someone is right in front of me, particularly if they're

shouting or yelling. if you're going to a sports mask, that might be something i'd think about. by and large,, i think, the last year has shown outdoors is very safe. indoors it is appropriate there would be this mask mandate, including for two reasons. one is the vaccinated people we now know are capable of spreading delta, which we didn't know before, and the second is, even as a fully vaccinated person, i think you don't want to get covid if you can avoid it. the incidents of long covid with people with break-through infections in a recent study from israel was about 20%. . so i think -- knowing that i'm fully vaccinated, i'm confident i'm not going to get super sick and in the going to die from covid feels good, but i still don't want to spread it to someone else. i still really don't want to get covid, because you can have a bad case. sally wants to know,, "will wearing a mask protect me if i sit near others at an indoor theater for three hours q.. >> the answer is yes. the best protection would be if you're wearing an n-95, which

protects you more than double masking, which protects you more than single masking. so i'm doing that next week. i'm doing the theater. i'll sit there for three hours. and i think i will wear an n- 95, but at the very least i'll wear a double mask. the reason i don't wear an n-95 for a long time is i find it uncomfortable to wear it long periods of time. so in the main protection in the theater, for example, is if everybody's masked, then it's a very safe place. if some people have their masks off, it becomeses will safe. >> gotcha. and you answered ann's question. she was wondering if you put the surgical mask on first then the cloth. it would be surgical first, then the cloth on top of that. >> and the reason, surgical is very good, but it's got some nooks and crannies, got some openings. a reasonably firm fitting cloth mask on top closes things off

and adds extra protection from the mask. >> great. i want to talk about schools, because california is requiring that kids and teachers wear a mask at school indoors. of course, outdoors it is optional. some places are asking for them, some places not. as you know, no social distancing since 100% of the kids are back. do you think most parents should feel assured that is safe enough for their kids to return? >> i think so. i would feel more comfortable if i knew for sure all of the people who could be vaccinated were vaccinated. i am in favor of mandates for the teachers and staff. i think the students are a little bit tougher, but there are plenty of universities, including the one i work at, university of california, that's going to require its students get vaccinated. so i think the safest environment would be if everybody could be vaccinated was vaccinated, and on top of that, there was uniform indoor masking, and some effort to improve ventilation as well. all right. so if that is the case then do

you, one, support a widespread vaccine mandate, and also do you think it should come from the federal government, the state, the county, the city, or the employer? >> well, that's too many choices. i don't think the federal government has the power to do it. i think it's probably got to be more local than that. and i think that, you know, mandates were pretty rare until a month ago, and i think we've now seen organization after organization, and including health-care organizations, like hospitals like mine, nursing homes require vaccination. i actually think it's the right thing to do. it's clear that we need a higher level of vaccination that we're going to able to achieve without mandates. if you have a mandate, it's reasonable to say to people, if you don't get vaccinated, then you have to get tested at least two or three times a week. but i think to keep the schools safe, particularly kids who can't be vaccinated, it is perfectly reasonable to have a mandate. i would favor it. the current vaccines for children, just to enter school, that is mandated by the state.

is that the state? >> i believe it's the state. i think it's the state. >> there's no reason other than politics that the state can't also mandate the covid vaccine? >> i think that's right. i think, you know, this of course has been massively politicized. the other reason is there are some groups waiting for the fda to give its full blessing to the vaccines before they mandate it. i think that's likely to happen in the next three weeks. . the find every vaccine, it should be accelerated by the point that by labor day, they will give a full authorization. >> i'm guessing by late august. i don't know why they said now we're accelerating it. they should have been accelerating it for the last year. they are really moving their process along, a rigorous process. it will certainly will result in full approval, no longer emergency use approval by the end of august.

>> what about for five to 11- year-olds? >> the best against i have is that the studies are moving along very quickly, and those will probably have enough data, assuming it shows they're safe and effective, which i assume for approval by the end of september. >> okay. . >> will we ever get to herd immunity? , you know, how long is that going to take? is there a way to answer that? >> there is no good way to answer that. if the situation was static, if i knew delta was the worst variant we would ever see and knew that immunity from vaccinations would last forever or get boosters into 200 million people or knew that immunity from your unf also lasted forever, then i would say we have another couple of waves ahead of us and be in a good place. the problem is we have a

painting the golden gate bridge project. the minute you're done, you have to start on it again. we may get to a place where we ear 90%, 95% immune from vaccines or infection, and then one of those two things begin to wayne or we have a new variant. the variant is worse in terms of infectiousness or begins to evade vaccines. so i wish i had a better and more optimistic answer. there's a chance we're going to be rolling with this for years. >> i'm not sure if i should be thinking of it as ending the pandemic or just bringing it down to size, so to speak, sort of like the seasonal flu, where you go, "oh, we know we're going to lose tens of thousands of people each year, but we accept that." i don't mean accept it, but you know what i mean. >> of course. ez area kline has a piece in "the new york times" on exactly this, what does the end game look like. he talked to me. he got a little bummed out after talking to me because of this idea that maybe we don't

ever quite reach flu levels, and then we have to decide, as a society, do we accept that in order to get back to, quote "normal," and my sense is that will vary depending on the part of the country, that in the bay area, i'm guessing that levels of death and hospitalizations that are around flu levels at least for awhile, we're not going to be comfortable accepting them. when things get worse, we'll probably go back to masking, back to restrictions. there are other parts of the country that are already over this, and have said -- obviously, florida, texas, missouri, there are other areas that have basically said, "all right. we are just not going back, you know, into that pandemic state. we're going to accept a fair number of deaths." the problem is the numbers of deaths they're going to have are going to be well beyond flu levels given the amount of virus they're seeing. >> all right, dr. walker. you've given us a lot to think about, and you've also given us good information to use to share with those around us who

programs haven't gotten vaccinated yet. i appreciate your time. >> thank you so much. thank you. coming up next, it's a really sad story, and we're going to revisit it. we're going to turn to a tragic anniversary, five years sense a 20-year-old from the bay area was

can pursue that. five years ago, the violent death of a young man shocked the bay area. calvin riley was shot and killed at san francisco's aquatic park. he was playing "pokemon go" with friends. the killer has not been caught, and the case has gone cold, seemingly. not if calvin's grieving father can help it. joining us now is shawn riley, who has since moved to boston, but has returned to the bay area this week to call attention to this unsolved case. shawn, thanks for joining us. you have our deepest condolences, please know that. it was so stunning when the story came out.

i can't believe it's been five years. you organized a vigil tomorrow night. i want to refresh our viewers' memories. your calvin was a star baseball player, was going to college in stockton. he was playing "pokemon go" that night, and then he ended up shot in the torso. what have you learned since then about a suspect, motive? aanything? >> i thinkoverall, inkoverall, o a nightmare. i feel just abandoned by the authorities. >> shawn, i think we're having problems with your audio. not all of your words are -- i think, do you have your ear buds in? i think we're

you completely is you have not gotten that much information from police, from what i understand, right? and u.s. park police, the agency now investigating, are they doing anything right now, even? . >> communication has been all over. i feel like when i call them, i bother them at times. i feel like i need to get this back into the media. i'm just trying to bring awareness. it's five years, and we've got nothing. . >> what's happened to your family and your life in wake of calvin's . >> it's been hard. . >> we are having problems with your audio, but i do want people to hear the details about the service. it is tomorrow. there will be a service and

then a candlelight vigil at saint gregory's church. that is in san mateo, not far from sarah high school, where calvin played baseball, and everybody is welcome. shawn does hope to call attention to the case again, and get people to, you know, come forward if they have any information, and certainly programs also remind authorities and the u.s. park police that this is unsolved case. . >> at first, family thought it was random. then shawn recently thinking there was programs more to it. but just really haven't gotten a lot of information, and therefore, he is holding this press conference, or i should say a candlelight vigil at saint gregory's church tomorrow night at 7:00 p.m.

in san mateoo. . shawn, thank you very much for joining us, and sharing this. i'm so sorry we had technical problems and it didn't pan out. but i just want to ask you, hopefully this answer will come through, what do you hope will come out of the vigil in addition honoring calvin's memory? let's talk about that

this unplugged device is protecting our beautiful coastlines and more. put off chores and use less energy from 4 to 9 pm to help keep our state golden. we cannot imagine. we hope the killer is found. thank you. thank you so much for joining us on this interactive show, getting answers. today we talk about covid-19 now the that we learned a mutation in the delta variant, delta plus has been detected in santa clara county. almost 50 total cases of mutated delta variants, including 46 cases of delta plus. we'll be here every weekday

at 2:00 on air and on live stream answering your questions. tonight, new details on plans for covid booster shots. the highly contagious delta variant driving the deadly summer surge. a senior government official telling abc the fda is expected to have a plan for booster vaccines for immunocompromised americans in the next few weeks. the white house reporting half of new infections are coming from seven states with low vaccination rates. among them, florida. the state leading the nation in hospital admissions. cases rising among children. fears of staffing shortages with doctors and nurses pushes to the brink. but florida's governor rejecting calls for restrictions. how he's going after president biden. and raging wildfires exploding in the west. dangerous heat and