tonight, on the brink? president biden bluntly spelling it out. >> russian forces are planning to and intend to attack ukraine in the coming days. >> false flag operations and staged events ramp up the tension between ukraine and russia. >> i don't believe it's a bluff, i think he's assembled the kinds of things you would need to conduct a successful invasion. >> our team standing by in the region to decode the latest moves. plus staying put despite weeks of warnings. some americans are not fleeing ukraine. >> my husband is in hospital, so it's really inconvenient for us to leave. >> ukraine is our home, why would we leave it? >> exactly. >> knowing they're on their own if war breaks out. >> if you stay, you are assuming risk. >> this special edition of

"nightline," "crisis in ukraine," will be right back.

♪ good evening. thank you for joining us. the united states and the world are now waiting on vladimir putin's next move. with more than 150,000 troops massed at ukraine's border,

president biden today bluntly saying that in no uncertain terms, he thinks putin has made up his mind and invasion by russia of ukraine will come in days. we're following the crisis with our team in the region. first, senior national correspondent terry moran is in lviv in western ukraine. >> reporter: byron, it's been an ominous day for ukrainians. it began with reports out of eastern ukraine that long-simmering conflict out there, sharply escalated shelling, artillery fire, mortar fire, tank fire across the front lines. really the most intensive shelling of ukraine from those rebel-held, russian-backed separatist-held positions in months. the events have been hurtling forward, throwing these people towards catastrophe that is approaching. and they are readying themselves. >> there have been a number of incidents that have turned out to be false flags today. what were they, and why are the russians doing this? >> reporter: well, they were

obvious false flags. that's what's so strange about it. here's the ukrainians facing one of the most powerful armies in the world. are they going to start things? doesn't look like it. instead you've got reports out of rebel-held, separatist-held enclaves in eastern ukraine of supposedly a massive ukrainian invasion is going to come. they announced an evacuation of the 700,000 people in that area. there was allegedly a car bomb that went off. it was a fire in a jeep, no other cars or vehicles or damage around it, not like any car bomb i've ever seen. there's no evidence on the ground of evacuations. so why? it's for domestic consumption. it is to whip up hysteria in russia and his forces, russia's forces, must ride to the rescue. >> terry, you've been on the ground there for a number of weeks. you've talked to civilians. we all remember the powerful interview you did with the ukrainian woman in that bomb shelter.

how has the mood changed on the ground there? how has it all shifted the past week? >> reporter: yeah, so dramatically in the past couple of weeks. people are still going about their business. they want to live their lives. but events are hurtling forward. the country feels like it's rushing forward. and the dread is deepening inside people. it doesn't take long, like in that conversation i had with the woman in the bomb shelter, for the dread to surface. she dissolved in tears when we asked about it. and it seems to me that in the couple of weeks i've been here, ukrainians have gone from a kind of, well, wishful thinking or denial, skepticism that war could happen to their country at this time, to disbelief, that it might happen, now to a genuine fear that it will. they fear it's going to come, and danger feels very close here now. >> abc's terry moran, thank you, my friend. stay safe. chief global affairs correspondent martha raddatz is in poland, which borders ukraine

to the west, where she had an exclusive interview with defense secretary lloyd austin. >> reporter: secretary of defense lloyd austin was meeting with american troops in poland. there were already about 4,000 american troops in poland. they've added about 5,000 more to shore up support for nato. you have many more american troops going up the border there. he talked about what they will be doing and what they won't be doing. they're not going into ukraine, but what is the possibility of some sort of engagement for them if vladimir putin moves into ukraine, which is right next door? >> president biden's been very clear about, you know, the fact that we're not going to deploy forces in ukraine. and we will make sure that we do everything possible to protect our troops and our polish partners so that there isn't a spill-over cross-boundary.

but this is something that we'll be on the lookout for, and we'll be thoughtful about making sure that we've taken the right steps to try to prevent that. >> reporter: one of the things that's most chilling, really, is listening to sources i have, and others, talk about what they think this will look like. they do believe that putin will send his troops into kyiv. it will start with missile barrages. you'll have electronic warfare, cyber warfare, aiming for the infrastructure of that city and around ukraine that have special operations forces come in. russian special operations forces are very good, but they supposedly have target lists with government and military officials on that target list that those special operations forces will be looking for. >> thank you, martha. for months there's been steady escalation and tensions along the border between ukraine and russia, but the bad blood goes back almost a decade.

senior foreign correspondent ian pannell is in ukraine tonight and brings us a look at how we got here. >> we have reason to believe the russian forces are planning to and intend to attack ukraine in the coming week, the coming days. >> reporter: for months, speculation of an invasion has grown since russia began amassing more and more troops by its border with ukraine. more than 150,000 russian troops estimated to be positioned along the borders. >> we're calling out russia's plans loudly and repeatedly. not because we want a conflict, but because we're doing everything in our power to remove any reason that russia may give to justify invading ukraine and prevent them from moving. >> reporter: some say putin's threatened by ukraine's move to embrace western europe and nato. others think he wants to rebuild and restore the glory and power of the former soviet union with ukraine central to his dream. it's been a simmering conflict for almost a decade. in 2014, ukraine ousted its

pro-russia president in a violent uprising known as the revolution of dignity or the mydan revolution. protesters demanding the former soviet nation evolve into a modern european democracy. ukrainians marking the eighth anniversary of their revolution today, paying tribute to the 100 lives lost at that time. in a swift response, russian forces invaded and annexed the crimean peninsula on ukraine's southern front. russian-backed separatist forces have been skirmishing with ukrainian troops in the east of the country ever since. but those looming threats have only strengthened ukrainian patriotism, uniting many of them against putin. today, it's not just a military ready to fight. civilians have been training and taking up arms, committed to defending their country until the bitter end. if you talk to ukrainians, they'll tell you they've already

been invaded, that they were invaded in 2014 and 2015 when russia and russian-backed local groups took over crimea and also de facto annexed the east of the country in the donbas area. what we're looking at right now is far more serious. we've been going to the east over the last few weeks, going to the front lines, going to the trenches, talking to soldiers who say they're ready to stand and fight and die, that they learned their lessons from 2014. some of them were divided on whether or not they felt the military action was likely, but the closer this has got, the greater that russia has amassed its forces on that border, the more real it's looked like. what they say to you is, our backs are to our families, to our neighborhoods, to our country, we've got nowhere else to go, we will stand and fight. everyone knows this conflict, if it happens, is going to be far bloodier than anything this country's seen in a very long time. if attack comes, one route for russian troops to cross the

border will be from its neighbor to the north. james longman is in belarus. >> reporter: byron, this is what nato has called the biggest russian military deployment since the cold war. a massive show of force right on ukraine's border here in belarus. these are military drills that have been planned for some time, but they're reaching a crescendo this weekend. western intelligence agencies have said if there was to be an attack in kyiv, that attack would come from belarus. to get an understanding of what russians make of this invasion, i think you've got to understand how it's being communicated to them. 180-degree difference. it is not that russia is the aggressor, it is that russia is actually trying to intervene on behalf of russian speakers in ukraine who are at risk of december if they don't. it is not that it's some major superpower about to attack another country, it's that russian speakers are in need of help and they are at risk of genocide. it's a word that's used time and time again here. i don't think there would be massive support for a full-scale invasion of ukraine by all russians, but i think it's also

important to understand it almost doesn't matter what russians think about what's going on. russian people don't have much of a say over what vladimir putin gets to do. this afternoon, president biden was again blunt about russia's latest moves. >> russia has a choice between war and all the suffering it will bring, or diplomacy that will make a future safer for everyone. >> for more perspective, here's abc's senior white house correspondent mary bruce. >> reporter: this was a real change in tone from president biden, going a step further in saying he does now believe that putin has decided to invade. i'm told the president is confident in this based on the intelligence that he is now receiving and because of what he's seeing on the ground, pulling back the curtain on u.s. intelligence as russia tries to create what he described as false justification to invade. we heard the president say it defies logic to think ukraine would try to escalate this conflict, especially now there are more than 150,000 russian

troops along their border. the president is still expressing optimism that there can be a diplomatic path forward, but he made very clear, delivering essentially a direct message to russia, once they take military action, the door to diplomacy will slam shut. >> thank you, mary. the next few days will be crucial. coming up, the americans who are sticking it out in their adopted home, even with war on the horizon. there's a different way to treat hiv. it's once-monthly injectable cabenuva. cabenuva is the only once-a-month, complete hiv treatment for adults who are undetectable. cabenuva helps keep me undetectable. it's two injections, given by a healthcare provider once a month. hiv pills aren't on my mind. i love being able to pick up and go. don't receive cabenuva if you're allergic to its ingredients or taking certain medicines, which may interact with cabenuva. serious side effects include

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the u.s. embassy in ukraine estimates there were several thousand americans in the country when russia started sending its forces to the border. some have chosen to stay, reluctant or unable to leave. here's abc's trevor ault. >> nothing's changed at all. no one's really worried at all. living the same life. >> reporter: today inside ukraine, for some americans who have chosen to stay, life is business as usual. >> ukraine is our home. so why would we leave it? >> exactly. >> people do go about our daily lives because there's not much that we can do. >> i've asked several times that all americans in ukraine leave now, before it's too late to leave safely. >> reporter: despite dire warnings from the white house, it's believed among the thousands of americans who live in ukraine, many have decided to stay. even if it means they're potentially at risk of getting caught up in a dangerous war.

troy barnies is one of them. >> as you can see, life is pretty normal here. there's nothing different. >> reporter: the 33-year-old maine native has lived in the southern ukrainian city of nikolai for nearly six months, playing professional basketball. with russia's troops gathering only miles away, barnies says he was initially panicked. >> we had meetings with the team, we were freaking out, honestly. but they stressed to us they would have plans for us. nothing's going to happen, they're fine, they're used to it. this is the way of life for a lot of ukrainians. >> what is it like saying, well, the country that i'm in might be invaded and there might be a war, and the president is saying i need to leave, but i need to go play basketball right now. >> it made me stop thinking about it, eased my mind a little bit that normalcy was still there. what do i have to worry about? nothing has changed for me yet. if my teammates who live here full-time aren't freaking out,

why should i? >> reporter: thousands of troops ready to help americans who cross the border out of ukraine. >> we appreciate poland for hosting an additional 4,700 u.s. soldiers who are prepared to respond. >> reporter: the u.s. government has made no promises to help americans who don't get out. >> if you stay, you are assuming risk. with no guarantee that there will be any other opportunity to leave. and no prospect of a u.s. military evacuation in the event of a russian invasion. >> i don't know that most americans appreciate what it looks like when soldiers roll through towns in tanks and start knocking on doors. if you have a safe place to go, it's hard for me to understand why you wouldn't take advantage of that now. >> so far, everything is normal. >> reporter: 26-year-old kendall

tiara moved to ukraine to teach english. >> this is the hotel where i live. and the school is right across the street. all of my friends around the world, europe, united states, were messaging me to tell me, get out, get out. but i don't have that much money to up and leave. >> reporter: even setting financial concerns aside, she says she's choosing to stay for now because she doesn't see reason to panic yet. >> i prefer to get the opinions of the ukrainian people. they're the ones who have lived here their entire life. they say this is always a threat. a lot of my ukrainian co-workers -- actually, no one mentions it whatsoever. >> is that odd at all? are you like, why aren't we talking about it? >> very odd, because my american co-workers and i, we were wondering if we have to evacuate. >> reporter: loved ones have voiced their concerns from overseas. >> my mom keeps messaging me every single day, sending me all of these articles.

my friends are messaging me. one friend told me, don't worry, the ukrainian military will protect you so you can tell your mom to calm down. >> when your friend tells you not to worry because the ukrainian military will protect you, do you believe him? >> yes. i mean -- i -- i don't think i'm going to die. as long as i don't die, everything's fine. >> i get messages on facebook messenger, instagram, twitter, text messages, you name it, people asking, what's going on over there? are you all right? everything cool? at one point i was just copying and pasting the same answer because i was getting text messaged so much. >> reporter: for americans living and staying in ukraine, updating their family members back home may soon become impossible. >> everybody in the west is very aware that cyber will be a key part of any sort of warfare against ukraine. if we do see cyber attacks, especially those that might interrupt power or communications, it would create

a bit of a challenge for u.s. citizens, one, to figure out what is going on around them, if they are safe where they are, or if they need to move. >> do you have a plan should things escalate and people around you decide it's time to go? >> if something really bad happens, we can drive to poland easily. if i have a little bit of time to leave by airplane, i would probably go to a neighboring country. >> my bags in my apartment are packed still. honestly, i don't know if it's going to get to the next level where i'm going to have to leave and i don't have time to make that happen. i'm preparing for something to happen, but in the long run, i'm just living my life as normal as any ukrainian here. >> our thanks to trevor. a final thought when we come a final thought when we come back.e. electricity powers your heart. want to feel your heart beat faster? ♪ (heart beat music) ♪ drive an electric car. made by a company whose evs have gone five billion miles...

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♪ ♪ finally this evening, it was the early 20th century russian writer leo tolstoy who said, the two most powerful warriors are patience and time. tonight, both seem in short supply. stay with abc news for continuing coverage of the unfolding crisis in ukraine. martha raddatz will be on the ground for a special edition of

"this week" sunday morning live from laviv, ukraine. thanks for the company, america. stay safe. good night.