announcer: building a better bay area. moving forward, finding solutions. this is abc7 news. kristen: high there. i am kristen sze. you are watching "getting answers," live on abc 7, hulu and everyday we talk about issues important to the bay area and get answers for you in real-time. today is election day. san francisco and san franciscans are facing in myriad of issues ranging from housing taxes crime and who they choose may reveal what they think about their mayor and how progressive the city really is. our media partner the san francisco standard will be joining us with a breakdown. first, the state and national picture. the balance of power hangs in washington, and surprisingly,

california may play a role in determining who controls the house and by how much. from abortion to sports betting tech taxes for the ultra-wealthy, there are several hot issues. but who is participating, and who is sitting out, and why? joining us now, with the political polls of california and what to watch for tonight is the vice president of the voter data firm political data, paul mitchell. nice to have you on the show. on your super bowl. paul: thanks for having me. . kristen: what do we know about voter turnout so far? paul: it is like our super bowl, but unlike the super bowl, we don't know the results until days or weeks afterwards. even the turnout numbers we will not exactly know until days or weeks afterwards. so far order of the state's registered voters have returned the mail-in ballot. not the biggest number. we would expect turnout to be

anywhere between 50 and 60% of voters who have the ballots. the final turnout number will be determined by how many people are mailing in their ballot late . a lot of people with a complex ballot like this might waiting until the last weekend to figure it out, and those would turn up on election day. voting on election day today is actually going to be a bit harder than most elections, simply because for much of the state, the weather is so bad, snow in the foothills in the mountains, rain going down the central valley and into l.a. and orange county. and oddly some of these races might be determined by the rain. kristen:he mayoral candidate karen bass was actually t readig to her turnout, don't stay home because of the rain. it is to think of the rain and snow and such a big factor and deterrent in people showing up. . in this age of the mail-in ballot, i wonder if that is as

much of an issue. for people who are close observers of elections, california has moved her mailing everybody a ballot, so everybody has a way in the state to return the vote without actually going to a polling place. that is different than 20 years ago when maybe a quarter of the electorate and in some countries, may be half the electorate was voting by mail. now, everybody has an opportunity. in the old days, it was democrats who used to be afraid of bad weather on election day because it was there paul: it was there borders we used to get out. a scrapes his knee and somebody doesn't end up voting. what has changed is that since 2020, a lot more of the poll- voting population is actually republicans. up to half of republicans believe that if they mailing their ballot, it will not be counted.

38% of republicans say they will either vote on election day or at the polls. so it is actually the republican consultant right now who are concerned about their votes turning out. kristen: because i am old, i remember that was not the case, it has actually slipped, right? that brings us to do is actually voting this time around. what can you tell me about the age, the race, the party registration, and maybe education levels of who is voting? paul: early votes still continue to not be representative of the state as a whole. when you look at registered voters, half are seniors -- a quarter of them are in years, and a quarter of the registered voter relation is 18-34. among people who returned a ballot already, half of that population are seniors, so they are doubling their voter strength by turning out more and in early numbers. 18-34-year-olds are only 10% of

the ballots returned so far. really underperforming. we also see latinos underperforming and independent voters underperforming. a lot of latinos are independent, and a lot of independents are younger, so we are seeing one segment of the electorate may be our mailing in their ballot late, maybe they will brave the condionote t p are concerned about because early voters are not representative of the state as a whole and they can really impact elections when we don't have real full turnout. kristen: that is true, but you can compare that group to the last midterm electio right, and when you look at that, does it make either already worry a little bit? paul: it is actually a challenge this year. you are right, the best comparison for an election like this would be to go back to 2018

, 2014 or 2010 and look at gubernatorial election cycles, particularly cycles where the party in power in d.c. had just changed. the challenge is that in 2018, only seven counties mailed everybody a ballot. now only 50 -- all 58 counties are doing so. in 2018 we only had 20 million registered voters. we are at a record high at 22 million voters registered in this election. so looking at these things based on past elections gets to be problematic. now, we can look, at the recall, but at the recall election we had a very simple ballot, just two questions. there are parts of the state with 30 or 40 different campaigns and candidates and ballot measures, a much more complex ballot. in the recall election we were at 40% turnout as of now. statewide right now we are at 25%.

kristen: and we just had the recall, you will get a certain type voter, people who are interested in that topic. and right now there are many issues. what are the drivers on the california ballot right now, getting people to the holes? you hit a salient point, do voters think the election matters? are there things they are enthusiastic about voting for? in the recall effort and governor newsom's campaign, it really made you feel like the future of the country was at stake, it became kind of a nationalized election, interestingly enough. the election this cycle, you look at california compared to georgia, georgia, they have what is really a nationalized election. that senate race, many believed will determine who controls the senate. kristen: herschel walker and raphael warnock. paul: right, they have already had 2.5 million early votes in tiny georgia, well we are at 5

million votes here in california. so the scale of turnout there will exceed what we have here in california. when we asked what voters in california are voting on and why they are turning out, the number one issue for democrats has been propped one and the abortion issue, 45% of voters saying that their top issue was abortion among democrats. among republicans, it has been things like information and crime and maybe a focus on those other economic issues and things that are carrying a lot more attention nationally. independence, interestingly enough, it is abortion and the economy. so, in a way, independents are showing how they straddle both sides of the conservative and liberal parts of the california electorate. but there are different issues essentially for different borders in this election.

kristen: what's interesting is you have some very close congressional races here. i am wondering if there one issue -- if the prop 1 issue matters, because he could determine how republicans do in the house, how big is their majority. talk about how prop one plays into those issues. paul: it plays in a lot. direct and indirect ways. a direct way it could be playing is, like i said, 45% of democrats saying abortion was the top issue that got them to vote. that means there may be voters who are not thinking their vote is pivotal in the governor's, but they realize they can voice their opinion on abortion and vote on prop 1, so they will turn out. the other reason it is important is just general messaging. if you are a congressional candidate in a tough race anywhere in the country, you are

grappling for, how do i discuss these things that will get my voters to turnout. in no way if you are running a race in ohio, you would have to talk about abortion all the time to make that the pivotal issue in your election. in california if you are running for congress, you can count on the fact that the media will be covering the abortion debate, prop 1 be on people's digital feeds and tv and that it will be a top issue. so it helps you carry that message. you will see how much the national media things abortion played into races here in california, if, for example, there are a lot of republican gains nationally, which is what many are expecting, and democrats lose the house, but in california the incumbent members of congress hold onto their seats, that might send a message nationally that abortion was a

winning issue, and having prop 1 on the ballot in california helped carry those districts. kristen: viewers and paul last week i stepped in a bear trap. i should really get rid of it. but... i'll make do. just like i make do without home internet. besides, my phone gets the job done. sometimes. it's not that bad. it is that bad. don't settle. get xfinity home internet for just $24.99 a month for 2 years

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nothing brings the pack together like a trip to great wolf lodge. now open in northern california. kristen: joining us alive with the political polls of california is the vice resident of medical data, paul mitchell -- political data, paul mitchell, back with us. races in the central valley and southern california, maybe could highlight the ones that kind of represent kind of a seismic shift in california? paul: yes. i think the seismic shift that happened in california's congressional dstricts came

aboard first in 2018 when democrats were able to win seven districts that were previously republican-held, from the central valley into orange county and the san diego area. big names like darrell issa, rohrabacher, lost races. the republicans were able to call back four of the districts and now, we are looking at seeing whether or not democrats can regain some footing but cannot be, or whether or not republicans might be able to come in and take one of those democratically held seats. add to the fact of redistricting. redistricting ended up causing some members of congress to be put into a seat that has significantly changed. in some cases, 50% of more or a member of congress's district is new to them. if you start in the northern central valley, you have an

elected official like josh harder, won his election in 2018 in that wave, held on in 2028 when republicans took back seats , and then now is facing reelection but in a very different district that goes all the way up to stockton. his reelection is being challenged by a county supervisor in san joaquin and that is emblematic of the central valley districts, where you have a variety of issues that might different than what you see in the coastal cities, and l.a. orange county or the bay area. issues around water, agriculture, jobs, the economy, cast races, that can be pivotal in a race like that. when you go further down south, we have a district that is also kind of emblematic of change in the state and touches on redistricting, and that is congressman david balladeo's

district, who won back his seat into a 20 and now he is facing a challenge. if this district is won by the democrats, it will be the first time a latino has ever won a central valley congressional dstrict. so we have issues just in the central valley that the interesting to see how those races shape up. kristen: of course in a central valley, and california as a whole, latinos are a big voting bloc. the national narrative is that a lot of latinos are breaking republican or shifting that way in your politics. how does that. out here in california? paul: it's interesting, there is a lot of important discussion about whether or not latinos in every part of the country can be treated monolithically, whether you can just take a broad brush and say that all latinos think this. that is also true with the asian population. some people say asian voters think x.

sometimes that is wrong because you have different subgroups in the latino population. you have cuban-americans, those who happily dominate voting in florida that are actually republican-leaning because of republicans'use onil castro and their positioning towards communist, socialist countries in central america. whether it is a cuban-american, a venezuelan or a puerto rican, we see a lot of variety along the eastern seat word and on the east coast with those latino populations. but in california with the mexican-american population more dominant, it is more cohesive. the asian population, in some parts of the country they might be treated monolithically. in california you might have vietnamese populations in santa clara county, japanese populations in alameda county and throughout southern california, pockets of korean and cambodian, all of which have different voting patterns.

so it is an important conversation to really understand the sentiments of these different ethnic subgroups and not lump them in as asian or latino. at the same time, it is also important to note that in california, we have much more of a cohesive and consistent population than in other parts of the country. kristen: i want to bring it back to the house and the senate. we have a graphic that shows this, the division of power in terms of how the seats are currently allocated. dams currently have 222, because they are in so much more competitive races, they are most likely to lose that majority, 85% chance. in the senate right now it is 50-50, with kamala harris, breaking the tie as vice president. republicans only need 1 to take control of that house. i want to ask if you think republicans like a divided government.

paul: there is data that suggests that in the presidential election cycle and everybody thinks hillary clinton will win, that some people might vote for that republican vocal candidate because they want some kind of balance. they might think the country is going one way and what it to go the other. that may be true, if the republican is seen to be the most likely winning candidate, democrats might vote more to balance it out. also in these midterm elections, you kind of having this reflexive nature or whoever's party is in power, their supporters are sometimes sitting on the couch and just relaxing and chill because things are going ok, or they may be disappointed in the body they helped elect two years ago and they don't want to be motivated to vote. the reflexive nature is that when you are the person whose party lost the last election and you are having -- it is kind of

a reverse partisanship, you are angry about the other party, you could use that to fuel your turnout among your friends and that side of the aisle. so we end up with these situations in midterm elections when they often are at vote against the party in power, and that is likely what we are seeing around the country. it is an open question whether or not we have something that we had in 2010, where there was almost a blue wall, where the red wave account legislatures and congressional seats all around the country, but in california, not one democratic member of congress lost their seat. california was the only state where democrats actually gained a seat in the legislature. so it is possible that we don't have the same experience as the rest of the country. kristen: we will seekristen: if california continues to be the outlier as it often is. of course we will not know until every vote is counted, and that could take a while thank you so much for joining us. paul: thank you for having me.

kristen: coming up, continuing election coverage. no shortage

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uh- it's time for lunch. aw... ♪ ♪ kristen: san francisco has a packed ballot. brooke jenkins has challengers for district attorney, there are several supervisor races and willing housing measures. turning as is the senior editor with the san francisco standard, to talk about the election. andy, thank you for joining us. we learned today from the director of the elections department of san francisco that they will not be counted in the ballots, like the ones people voted on now, so basically we will just see mail-in ballot results. why are they doing this? annie: this is basically a big ballot, five pages instead of one leg we have seen in past elections, and that means it

takes more time to,. we know that the first batch reported will be the preliminary results, based on ballots mailed in prior to election day. but it should be a substantive chunk of total votes because in past elections, 90% of people and up voting by mail. ever it is, it should be a good chunk of votes also note tomorrow how many outstanding ballots there are to be content. kristen: maybe in the super close races, we may not get there tonight. i won't to zoom in. seems like we have real test of whether voters approved of their mayor. do you think. paul: we have seen it in poll after poll, people are really fed up with the san francisco government right now. we hold the officials, almost

all of them are underwater and people are really angry about the state of affairs in the city. we had two recall elections this year. people will have an opportunity to weigh in on all sorts of things prudent several appointees by the mayor to the board and the district attorney's office, and issues ranging from housing to taxes, it runs the government. i would be curious to see how it goes. kristen: the mayor has put her stamp on so many races, she has the appointees at the school board, the da, also she has endorsed certain issues, including housing. it's not a referendum, but she has a lot at stake. let's dive into a couple. the housing one, two competing prepositions. talk about those. prepositions d and e. they both have affordable housing in the title.

one i think is called affordable housing now and the other one is called affordable housing production act. it is likely to confuse voters. i have heard from friends saying , what do they mean? do they differ in the fine print. this has been a really ferocious battle, a lot of money has been raised, particularly on the prop d side, they also try to get prop e tossed off the ballot. supporters of prop d say that their proposal will result in a lot more affordable housing. supporters of prop d attached more caveats on the way they want to do affordable housing streamlining and they say their weight is more fair. i expect this will confuse more people and we will see how it turns out, but basically, if both pass, whichever gets more votes will nullify the other ones. so we will see what happens

between dna. it could play a big role in how much affordable housing get out future years. kristen: andy, thank you so much for your expertise and your time today, i appreciate it. thanks. kristen: you can check out more of the san francisco standard's reporting on their website, sf standard.com. abc7 continue to bring you more segments featuring the city's standard focused journalism, and they will be part of our election coverage tonight that begins at p.m. you can watch that with our abc7 bay area on your phone, or smart tv.

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kristen: thanks for joining us for "getting answers." tonight, breaking news as we come on the air. election night in america. the critical midterm election in a deeply divided country. the first exit polls coming in now. what they reveal already. tonight, control of the house at stake, control of the senate, too. and what this could all mean for president biden's next two years in office. millions of americans across the country heading to the polls. some waiting hours in line to cast their ballots. the senate race in pennsylvania, a dead heat. john fetterman against dr. mehmet oz. in georgia, a razor thin race there, as well. senator raphael warnock against herschel walker. republicans need to gain just one seat to take back control of the senate. they need five seats to flip the house. 45 million americans voting early. elections officials already pointing to a midterm record for early turnout.