a final vote. a final push for your vote today, as candidates for national and local offices take advantage of the final hours before election day. good afternoon, i'm kristen z. we have monday night football here on abc seven starting at 5 p.m,

so you'll see the countdown clock there on the bottom of your screen right now. another countdown to election day. so let's start with the big one, and one that many polls show is too close to call. the race for president. for the latest to our nation's capital, abc news reporter perry russom is tracking all the last minute bidding for voters support. >> the candidates they are in the final push, focusing on the battleground states crossing paths in pennsylvania state that could win them. the white house. today, the final sprint before election day. vice president kamala harris in scranton, pennsylvania. are we ready to do this? >> we're ready to get out the vote. we're ready to win. yes. >> harris spending the entire day in pennsylvania. it's the battleground state with the most electoral college votes up for grabs 19. former president trump

also there today, plus michigan and north carolina. >> you know, they have an expression. i hate the expression, actually, but it's ours to lose. >> trump also talking immigration november fifth, 2024 will be liberation day in america. >> and on day one, i will launch the largest deportation of criminal program in american history. >> reporter. >> the focus for both candidates winning enough of those swing states to get to 270 electoral college votes. the easiest way for kamala harris hold the upper midwest. if she wins wisconsin, michigan and pennsylvania 270 electoral votes. exactly. that is the magic number with no margin for error whatsoever. on the other hand, let's talk about what donald trump needs to do. obviously, breaking through the blue wall is a big deal, but here's the path for him. if he takes nevada and arizona out west, where he's had some polling advantages, and in the south georgia and north carolina, he's on the precipice.

268 electoral votes, one. breakdown for that 36 million by mail, 44 million in person. that is a record. kristen. >> his record indeed. perry russom, thank you so much for the live report. so who will win the white house? your feelings on that right now may depend on which forecaster, which polls you're listening to, and they tell dramatically divergent stories for example, democrats were excited over the weekend after the des moines register released a poll that had kamala harris leading donald trump by three points in iowa. keep in mind, that's not a swing state. it went for trump in 2016 and 2022 or 2020. but the emerson college iowa poll that also came out this weekend has trump leading by harris by ten points. so what is really, really going on here. joining us live now to read the very last tea leaves, if you will, before election day tomorrow. somebody who is quite familiar with polls and data,

the vice president of california based political data inc, paul mitchell. hey, paul. >> hey, thanks for having me. >> yeah. so these latest polls have voters head spinning, right? where do you think things really stand? who's got the better shot right now? >> well, right now, with all the modeling polling averages, it really is a 5050. it really is on a razor's edge. i do think that something the polls aren't necessarily capturing as well is how well each of these campaigns are closing, how well they're on their messages that they believe are the most effective at turning these last minute deciders, those undecided voters who maybe are deciding between the two candidates. but most likely are deciding whether their vote or not. and so that's really what's critical going into these last hours. >> any new polls to suggest which way those folks are breaking? >> well, you mentioned the ann selzer poll, the one in iowa that everybody was kind of drooling over on on saturday. this isn't just a poll that everybody is looking at this year. it's a poll everybody was

looking at in 2020, 2016, 2012. and she is a pollster that generally gets it right. and she's also a pollster that's not afraid to put out polls that are kind of outliers, as opposed to all the polls that are out now that are so 50 over 50. and there are a few things in that poll that really people were clinging to. one is how women were voting in her poll, thinking that might translate to other states in the midwest and how late deciding voters were thinking in their poll. and in her poll, she showed late deciding voters tilting towards harris by about ten points. >> we'll see. but also in that poll, i think, or maybe it's a different poll. you tell me. but it does seem like harris has lost a little bit of her advantage with women in these final weeks. right? >> well, i think that people are looking at there's different data out there, but particularly in the states where abortion is a key issue, she seems to be doing really well with women, particularly in the seltzer polls and others. older women and independent women. and let's also note that in iowa, they

implemented their six week abortion ban this summer. so for them, it's a very salient issue. so how this happens to translate to other states is really unknown. >> you heard perry russom talk about the record early voting. that's been on fire. what does that suggest? >> well, what's interesting is a lot of people want to look at that data and say, we see enthusiasm. this is good for my candidate or whatever they want to kind of infer out of it. but a big, big, big part of it is just changes in election administration. let's say ticketmaster had the next beyonce concert and they started selling tickets three months earlier, and then somebody says, oh my god, this never before is a concert sold out. three months earlier. well, that just is a function of them changing the rules. and when you could buy a ticket in the same way here, when election administration is built more around early voting, more voting centers, shorter lines, you see a lot more participation in those states where they're really pushing that mode of voting. it doesn't

necessarily mean that the other voters aren't going to vote at the end, which is when it really matters. as long as their ballot is in by election day, all the votes count equally. >> all right. oh, so, paul, the iowa poll also contains another bit of a surprise, at least for me. older voters seem to support harris, while younger voters are split. that is certainly against conventional wisdom, isn't it? >> yeah. i mean, i think that the older voter was really driven by a 20 point plus gap by older women. that was really what changed that particular around the country. you would look at a demographic like older white women, and you wouldn't necessarily think that they're lockstep for the democratic candidate in in an area like in the midwest or rural areas. but in this poll it was. and so you'll see differences when you dive into these, what they call cross tabs, which is, you know, each of the data points for different subgroups. and sometimes you find things that can be shocking. but again,

sometimes it's just isolated to that one state or that one poll. the real question is on election day, does that, you know, is this a harbinger of something to come? >> and in this race, i think is especially hard to call because it's really kind of blown up the old voting blocs and allegiances. right, in a way. okay, before i let you go real quickly, i know some people are doing that whole election betting thing. what are the betting lines saying? >> so the betting lines for a while went pretty wildly pro-trump, especially on a site called polymarket, which everybody is looking at now. a couple things to note in order to bet on polymarket, you can't be in the us and most of the betting is done in crypto. so while you might have maybe $1 billion being bet on these races, it's not necessarily, you know, a real reflection of everybody's viewpoints like it might be advertised. okay. so they are now though leaning towards what the models are showing more of a 5050. >> still, we're back to that

poll. okay, given that we got 10s, you tell me when you think we can expect the final result when it becomes crystal clear who the winner is? >> i think, surprisingly, i think we're going to find out on tuesday night or wednesday. i think one of these candidates is going to win a lot of these states, and it's really going to be a polling miss. that all is kind of correlated. >> oh my gosh, i'm going to lose sleep. okay. i mean, and right after daylight saving time ended, like we're all going to be messed up with our sleep. paul mitchell political data, inc. thank you. >> thanks for having me. >> okay, look, is the santa clara county valley transportation authority doing something for voters? indeed they are. they're offering free rides to polling places on election day, so you can hop on any vta bus, light rail or paratransit between 7 and 8. so that's 7 a.m. and 8 p.m. those are the hours, of course, when polls are open. abc seven news is here to help you navigate through all the races and measures on the ballot. we have a voter guide on abc seven news.com where you can look up races in your county. you'll

find it under the election section. and abc seven news anchor julian glover is in washington, dc to bring us the latest on the election from our nation's capital. he'll have live updates from howard university, which is harris's ama mater, starting in just an hour and running through election night. in other news, developing news p-g-and-e's may shut off power starting tomorrow in some parts of the bay area to prevent its equipment from sparking wildfires. p-g-and-e's is preparing for a shutoffs in parts of alameda, contra costa lake, napa, sonoma, santa clara and solano counties. nearly 12,000 people may be affected. napa and solano account for about half of the total. the shutoffs would likely begin tomorrow and continue through thursday. p-g-and-e's says it's taking steps now to make sure elections facilities will still have power. all right. let's get an update on these windy conditions. not great for fire forecast. here's spencer with the latest. >> yeah kristen you know the sky is so blue. and the day is so

pretty that we can easily lose sight of the fact that this pattern poses some, some risks for us in terms of fire danger. here's a look at what's going on. the view from the golden gate. you can see some blue sky and breezy conditions right now. and these are our forecast headlines heading into this evening. clear and breezy. gusty at times tomorrow through thursday. dry. gusty. red flag warning for high fire danger will be in effect and the weekend will bring us some clouds and some unsettled weather with a chance of some drizzle. but right now we're focused on this red flag warning for high fire danger, in effect from 11 a.m. tomorrow to 7 a.m. on thursday. winds will generally be out of the north at about 20 to 30mph, with gusts up to, or perhaps at times even above 55mph. relative humidity down to below 15% at times, which of course is dangerously dry. right now we're looking at relatively calm to breezy wind conditions. nothing very threatening at the moment, but as we look at tomorrow's conditions this time tomorrow, we'll have gusts ranging from 25

inland to 35 on the coast, and even higher gusts at times. also, right now we're looking at humidity readings below 25%, which is very low. but tomorrow at this time, we'll see some readings in a wide swath of the bay area below 15% 1,112% humidity, bone dry, dangerously dry. as if we didn't have enough to contend with already with the fire danger. we've got a beach, a beach, hazards statement in effect until 11 until 7:00. this evening. make that clear. 7:00 this evening. uh- wave heights may reach 10 to 14ft, and there's a risk of dangerous sneaker waves and rip currents. on we go to overnight conditions mainly clear overnight, breezy, even windy at times. overnight lows will range generally from upper 40s to low 50s. highs tomorrow under sunny, breezy, gusty conditions will range from mid 60s at the coast to low 70s around the bay shoreline to mid 70s inland. and here's the accuweather seven day forecast. so tomorrow's election day. but that's also the day the high fire danger begins. and that pattern continues through thursday. finally on friday

we'll see the winds easing a bit. relative humidity elevated just a little bit. and then going into the weekend we gain some clouds. partly cloudy. chance of drizzle on saturday. drizzle is likely on sunday and on monday the way things are shaping up right now, we may have a level one rain storm moving through the bay area. a storm of light intensity, but it will bring much needed rain. kristen. >> all right. spencer. thanks. some new and critical headlines today involving two of the top contenders for san francisco mayor. up next, abc7 news and insider phil matier breaks down the developments i

was the san francisco mayoral election and today new headlines

dropped against two of the four leading candidates that may hurt them politically. maybe. joining us live now to analyze the latest in our local races is abc seven news insider phil matier. phil always great to have you on today. some not so great headlines for both mayor breed and interim mayor mark farrell. >> tell us what these have to do with well, what they have to do with is sort of questions about ethics. that's what it basically boils down to, is we have a situation where for example, former interim mayor mark farrell, who is also on the board of supervisors, was hit with the largest fine that the city has ever leveled for political shenanigans. okay, for mismanagement, for questionable ethics, $105,000. he was ordered to pay because what he was doing, they found, was he set up his mayoral committee, and then he set up a committee to for a ballot measure to cut back on the number of commissions that san francisco has. that was a very popular sort of idea. it also but they started

co-mingling their funds and using each other and you can't do that because in a mayor's race, there's a $500 limit on how much you can give. and in the ballot initiative, there's no limit. so he was getting 500 for the mayor's race, and then 500,000 from a supporter that wanted the ballot measure done. and then when you started sharing staff and things like that on the two, it became an ethical question. >> and mayor breeds has to deal with her boyfriend. >> and yes, that has to do with an ongoing questions about a program she called dream keepers, where she was taking money that had previously, let's say, gone into public safety and said, let's put it into the community rather than into police. this goes back a couple of years to elevate communities at risk. and in part of those programs, it turns out there's questions about how they spent the money. and one of the ways that they spent the money was on a juneteenth celebration that featured the mayor's boyfriend as a rapper, for which he was paid $2,500. neither one of these are good news to have when you still have two thirds of the

vote out. okay. all right. okay. about 35% of the vote has come in in san francisco as of sunday. that means that two thirds of the people are still out there trying to trying to work it. and something like this isn't necessarily going to define the race. but if somebody is on the edge one way or the other and that's the last thing they've seen, it can have an impact. >> or maybe you are their number two and they're like, i'm not sure about you now. >> maybe you're getting us into the second part of this, which is the ranked choice voting in san francisco, in which people can rank their choices one, two and three. and that's how they vote here. and the problem is, is you said you compound that with close races. it opens up the thing to anything can happen. >> all right. what about another headline this weekend? i'm sure you saw the video. two walgreens in san francisco were hit in an apparent smash and grab thefts this weekend could this influence voters either on this race or, of course, prop 36, which is a move by the to toughen up california's laws for crimes like this. >> as it stands right now, if

you break in and steal, you know, $950 or less, you basically get a ticket. it's very difficult to catch people when they're doing this unless you catch them in the act. they're hooded after they walk out that store there. usually it's charged with possession of stolen goods, which drops it. but the point is, okay, this is not good for mayor. london breed somebody in a scooter going out with that. it's not good for the city. it's not an image. the city wants to have. but it is a city, an image that the city has come to live with. and the bay area has come to live with. and, you know, it's either this or somebody driving a car into to a store. but the problem with mayor london breed is this reinforces the earlier videos and the idea that says for all the times that she said she's changed and things are changing, you see this. and when you see it, it has twice the impact of any kind of data you're getting from from law enforcement. all right. >> we'll see what the impact is and how the results are. and of course, we will be here tomorrow night and we'll be streaming from 8 to 11:00, i think. so you want to join us as we chat about

this and all the other races to be nervous biting party. >> okay. yeah. >> exactly. right. they're already gone. thanks, phil. all right. two boats capsized in bodega bay in a matter of days. how? an 11 year old boy managed to make it back to shore. >> i turned on all my lights. the car started to separate. >> and a morning commute stunner in the south bay when a small plane is forced to land on a highway, the pilots tell us what happened. and are you ready for some football? monday night football coverage begins here on abc seven at five, followed by after the game at nine. it's world news tonight with david muir at 930. catch jeopardy! followed by wheel of fortune and at 1030, a special edition of abc seven news. then stay with us for abc seven news

are investigating a deadly boat capsizing in bodega bay. the

boat capsized around 7:00 this morning. we've learned one person was rescued, but died in another. remains missing. this is video showing the search and rescue operations this morning. the coast guard is still searching for the other boater off mussel point. we reached out to emergency responders in the area to try to learn more on saturday. six people were on a boat that capsized there. at least one person died. an 11 year old child survived, four others remain missing. a cell phone ping showed their boat was last near karmet beach. the coast guard has suspended its search. yesterday evening, the group took off from a marina in bodega. around 3:00 saturday afternoon. the child, who survived floated to shore sometime overnight with the help of a cooler. >> the kid had, which has been through it, and he's a i haven't talked to him personally, but yeah, obviously i feel feel bad for him, but i'm so happy that he survived. >> the boy has been reunited

with family members. the press democrat says the group traveled from corning into gemma county. now take a look at a landing that made for a crazy commute this morning in the south bay. the private plane landed in the opposite direction of traffic on southbound 85 near de anza boulevard in cupertino, just after 7 a.m. the pilot was the only person on board and was not hurt. peterson conway commutes from a farm in carmel to palo alto every other day. today, he apparently just ran out of gas and saw kids running out into the football field. >> i was trying to make, and i couldn't make that. northbound traffic on 85 was back to back, and nobody would be able to see me coming down on top of them. so i opted to land on the southbound lane. i turned on all my lights and the car started to separate. there were two high speed porsche suvs. i think coming my way were playing chicken and i was rocking my

wings to try and get everybody's attention. >> the landing caused a backup with lanes closed for more than four hours. two trucks collided in the traffic backup. i always hate to see that. no one was seriously hurt, though. and the union representing san francisco police officers is suing the police commission. the poa is seeking to overturn a department policy that bans cops from pulling people over for low level offenses. those offenses include expired tags, busted taillights and things that obstruct a rear view mirror. critics say the stops tend to target people of color. the poa argues the ban violates california state law because the policy conflicts with the vehicle code. we've reached out to the mayor's office, the police department, and also the commission for reaction and are waiting to

the life of a towering figure in music and television. >> quincy jones was born in chicago in 1933, and was considered to be one of the greatest minds in music and television history. he found his love for music while enrolled in high school, where he met his friend and collaborator ray charles. >> ray was like, wow, he was like god to me. >> in the 1950s, jones followed his passion working as a trumpeter and conductor for lionel hampton's band. >> i get misty and would go on to work with jazz greats including sarah vaughan. >> in 1978, q, as he was called by friends, produced a soundtrack for the wiz, where he

met entertainment legend michael jackson. jones decided to offer him a chance to record a song he was saving for frank sinatra. she's out of my life. she's out of my life. their partnership led to jackson's blockbuster thriller album, which sold more than 100 million records worldwide. cause this is damon. he was also the man behind the all star charity single we are the world. we are the world. jones became the most grammy nominated artist ever with 79 nods and 27 wins. he also produced the film the color purple. swease quincy jones will be remembered as a legendary music producer, record company executive and humanitarian whose contributions touched nearly every sector of the entertainment industry. >> love, laugh, live and give. that's what it's about. >> ike ejiochi, abc news, washington, d.c. we are

40 niners running back christian mccaffrey back on the practice field today. he's been out on injury since week two of the season with achilles tendinitis. mccaffrey missed out on training camp. so he'll be in practice for 21 days to get back up to speed. he won't be off the injured list though until at least saturday. the team has until november 25th to activate him, or he will be out the rest of the season. thanks for joining us. we'll see you back here at 4:00. and of course, monday night football right here at 5:00. bye bye. tonight, a special edition of "world news tonight," america on the eve of the high stakes 2024 presidential election. kamala harris and donald trump delivering their closing arguments. tonight, what the final abc news poll now reveals. and the state of the race tonight in the key battleground states. more than 80 million americans voting already. now the campaigns and their ground games