right now. >> this is the calm between storms. taking a live look outside right now, the

embarcadero in san francisco. we've got a second atmospheric river moving in. we're tracking when the worst of it will hit the bay area. and what to expect. good afternoon, i'm kristen z. we'll have much more on our weather in just a moment, but let's begin with breaking news. the plan trump administration tariffs on canada is now on hold for 30 days. this comes after a similar agreement with mexico earlier this morning. here's abc's reena roy. >> president trump pausing planned tariffs on goods coming from mexico and canada. after speaking with the leaders of both countries today. >> i had a great talk with mexico. we have to stop fentanyl from coming in whether i like somebody or not. and we have to stop the illegal aliens from coming in. >> mexican president claudia sheinbaum saying it was a good conversation with a framework of respect, promising to reinforce the border with 10,000 national guard troops to prevent drug trafficking. and the u.s. says it will work to prevent the trafficking of high powered weapons to mexico. but there is still more to work out over the

next month, before trump imposes 25% tariffs on goods from mexico. >> we've agreed to talk and consider various other things. we haven't agreed on tariffs yet, and maybe we will, maybe we won't. >> the two countries may still eventually face 25% tariffs, with a lower 10% tariff on canadian oil and gas. trump today saying it's tough to do business with canada. >> and we can't let them take advantage of the u.s. they don't take our agricultural product. for the most part, they don't take our cars. >> china also hit with 10% tariffs on top of those already in place from trump's first term. the stock market opening down this morning, but the dow and s&p 500 recovering some losses after the pause was announced. president trump had promised lower costs for americans, but they could still be shelling out more cash on everything from cars to groceries. if the countries retaliate with tariffs on american goods, which they have vowed to do. >> fresh fruits and vegetables from mexico to maple sirup, and vehicles from canada to consumer

electronics and toys from china, and lots of stuff in between. >> we may have short term some little pain, and people understand that. >> trump says he's also considering tariffs against the european union, saying they don't import enough u.s. products. reena roy, abc news, new york. >> and in just a few minutes, we'll talk live with the chief of staff at the stanford institute for economic policy to explore more about these changes and the back and forth, and the potential impact of all this uncertainty on all of us. okay, so for now, we're going to look at our incoming storm. it's a good one. here's meteorologist drew tuma with a closer look. >> we'll begin this accuweather update with a live look from our sfo camera this morning, where it is certainly cloudy out there and steady rain is returning this evening. it's breezy right now. rain back later on tonight. it's a level two storm as we head deeper into the evening hours. now tomorrow this system gets an upgrade to a level three on the storm impact scale. a strong storm, and if you're

timing things out, do expect the worst rain and wind in this six hour window between 1 p.m. and 7 p.m. tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow evening. the extended outlook keeps rain in the forecast thursday and friday, so the flood watch is posted for everybody, meaning we will likely see more instances of flooding initially this evening. the highest risk will be in the north bay and then tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow evening that risk becomes area wide as our atmospheric river slowly moves through the region. now we just had a wind advisory issued for many cities along the coast. this does include san francisco as well. tomorrow during the afternoon, we could see some very strong winds in excess of 50mph. so that would certainly take down some trees and could also cause some power outages. so here's future weather later on this evening. by 530, the rain has returned to much of the north bay. steady, moderate, if not some pockets of downpours later on tonight, then closer to midnight, those showers start to spread south and east across the

rest of the region. when you wake up tomorrow, you do want to check in on abc seven mornings because we will be tracking some rounds of heavy rain for the tuesday morning commute. our focus is really on the afternoon and into the evening. so here's future weather 1 p.m. tomorrow we have heavy rain falling across the region, but this line along the cold front by 5 p.m, this is when we're really in the thick of it. and when future weather shows you these pockets of deep red that is brief but intense rainfall that will be coming down tomorrow evening, and that will also be accompanied by some strong winds. so looking at the rainfall over the next 36 hours, our ground is pretty saturated, especially in the north bay. and we're talking about two, three, four, five inches of rainfall coming our way. we're most certainly going to see some issues here when it comes to flooding. even around the bay shoreline, we're talking 1 to 2in of rain in a short amount of time. that is why the flood watch is out. we look at our flood concerns. they really ramp up throughout the day tuesday, and it's the evening where we'll

likely have a lot of issues when it comes to standing water. i want to show you the winds because they are breezy today, but watch what happens tomorrow afternoon when that front starts to move through here. we're talking winds in excess of 50mph. i would not be surprised if along the coast, winds get closer to 60mph, a winter storm warning is in effect. we will get snow out of the system. most of the snow will fall tomorrow. some of our highest peaks could see 2 to 3ft of snow during the day tomorrow. around lake level, upwards of a foot of snow is coming. so here's the accuweather seven day forecast. evening rain and wind on the way. then tomorrow afternoon you really want to kind of hunker down as this heavy rain, the strong winds move through. get a brief break in the action wednesday before we track another system thursday and into friday. >> all right, so with that, fire officials are warning people to be prepared for possible flooding, downed trees, power outages and slick roadways. these are problems we've already seen throughout the weekend. of course, officials from sonoma county fire district say the latest atmospheric river has

brought several inches of rain, flooding and damage. a 200 foot douglas fir in forestville came down on its neighbor's house, damaging the roof line, taking out a fence and part of the back deck. and by sunday morning, slosser road in the russian river valley was under nearly a foot of water, but some drivers were still going for it. >> there is an enormous amount of flooded water coming through. the vineyards are all flooded, the road is flooded. we can't get through. we can't drive through that. right now. the soils are incredibly saturated, so the tree systems are relatively weak and then you add wind to that. we're getting we are seeing a lot of trees coming down. >> with more rain coming. the fire departments swift water rescue team will be standing by along the russian river. this lull in the storm might be a good time to set up any sandbags outside your home. now take a look at conditions in tahoe today. our storm is bringing mostly rain to the sierra. as you can see in this video from palisades tahoe, the tahoe and el dorado national forest were

under an avalanche warning this morning. that warning did not include ski areas and highway or higher elevations. at 8000ft, they are seeing some snow. all right. don't forget you can track the rain throughout the week ahead with the abc seven bay area app. you can get the latest forecast and the same live doppler seven radar that our weather team uses. search abc seven bay area in your device's app store to download it now. several businesses and street vendors across the bay area are closed for today in protest of u.s. immigration policies. it's a nationwide movement called a day without an immigrant. as abc seven news reporter lena howland shows us, the point of this day is to showcase the vital role of immigrants in the u.s. economy. >> storefronts look a little different in san francisco monday morning, this restaurant in the mission closed, and street vendors that would normally line mission street mostly gone. >> it's not to affect businesses easiest to prove your car with

our power, with our money, but we can contribute to this country for the economy. >> rodrigo lopez is president of the mission street vendors association, who works. >> as a. >> street vendor himself. but on monday, he chose not to work, standing in solidarity of a day without immigrants. this is an annual day of protest, but it was moved up a few months in response to president trump's immigration policies. with no school, no work, and no shopping. >> we played almost the same role. like everyone, we pay taxes, we buy houses, we buy cars, we spend money every single day like everybody else. it is no different. we are the same. >> organizers say the goal behind this day of action is to highlight the vital role of immigrants in the u.s. economy. they say an estimated 31 million migrants contribute significantly to the nation's workforce. and lopez doesn't believe every immigrant should be categorized as an illegal criminal. >> maybe there's a small fortune

of people that can be bad actors. they can do the wrong things. but like i say, the majority of these immigrants, there are families that are working to make a living. a week here because we got a dream. we are here because we want a better, better life for ourselves and our families. >> and he hopes this day of action happening across the country will send a bigger message to the trump administration. >> if it has to be coastal and border. yes, we agree everyone agree to be control over that. but there got to be a way, a different way, not the way it is right now. everyone is up here. >> in san francisco. lena howland, abc seven news. >> in oakland, a body was discovered after fire crews responded to a fire at a warehouse. 40 firefighters responded to the two alarm fire around 545 this morning, and moorpark street and pippin street. the blaze was under control before seven. no information is known about the person found dead inside the building. the cause of the fire is under investigation. a

separate deadly fire broke out in the east bay overnight, this one in berkeley. we're learning one person died in a fire at a home on cedar street. according to the berkeley scanner. one other person is in critical condition and two others sustained minor injuries. a dog was also rescued from the home. the home was one block from the fire station, which helped firefighters put out the blaze in about 30 minutes. it's still unclear what may have caused the fire. some people living around martinez are still under a health advisory after this intense fire burned at the martinez refining company over the weekend. it started saturday afternoon. black smoke could be seen for miles, prompting a shelter in place. the fire was under control yesterday. now investigators are working to figure out the cause. >> when we noticed towering plumes of black smoke in the air, coupled with a very loud rumbling sound, it just felt like the worst possible case scenario could happen. >> six people needed medical

attention because of the fire. community members are frustrated with the number of incidents that have occurred at the refinery. some are even demanding that it be shut down. we are meeting the next poet laureate of san francisco. she's 77 years old and will introduce you to her. coming up next, we'll talk live with a former economist at the white house council of economic advisors about the impact of all this uncertainty over tariffs. and ayesha curry explaining

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to take effect at midnight. he posted this message on x. i won't read a word for word here, but essentially trudeau is committing more money and troops to guard the border, appointing a fentanyl czar and launching a joint strike force with the u.s. this is similar to the deal that president trump cut with mexico earlier today. joining us live now to talk about this rapidly changing trade war in the making, chief of staff at the stanford institute for economic policy and formerly on the white house council of economic advisors from 2021 to 23. ryan cummings, ryan, thank you so much for your time today. >> thanks for having me, kristen. >> so canada's prime minister and mexico's president tried to sound strong and independent while making their announcements today. but in reality, is this a capitulation on their parts? >> well, i don't want to speak for the canadian or mexican government, certainly. but if you look at what the president trump was trying to extract a complete stop of fentanyl coming across the border, i don't think these actions are going to achieve that. now. granted, i think the tariffs in the first

place were way too blunt of a tool to try and achieve this goal. so i think everybody, including the canadians and mexicans, want to reduce the flow of fentanyl into the united states. but the way this went about was very chaotic and caused a lot of disruption. >> explain that a little bit more, right. drawing on your experience with the white house council of economic advisors, when do you use the blunt tool? when do you use a surgical tool? when do you apply tariffs and why do you not want to do it too broadly, like help us understand all the ramifications? >> sure. so particularly a good example was whenever the biden administration was considering to apply tariffs on solar panels from china. so this was a painstaking, very deliberate process that occurred over the course of months. thinking about the trade offs between accelerating the clean energy transition on one hand and building our own domestic solar manufacturing capability on the other. now, that's in stark contrast to this kind of more blunt exercise, which some could argue that was applied by the biden administration. for example, when russia invaded ukraine and the goal there was to try and stop russia from

having revenue that it could use to continue its illegal invasion of ukraine. so in those circumstances, you might want to be a little more heavy handed, because it's literally a matter of life and death and war. but in something like this, not to say fentanyl and the overdoses and the tragedy that we have with that isn't life or death. but in this instance, it's not particularly well suited or targeted to actually solve the problem. so, as i'm sure people have seen, you've reported on president sheinbaum, mexico said she's already going to get an additional or is going to put 10,000 troops on the border with the united states, but there already appears to be 15,000 mexican troops there. so it's not entirely clear how much this is actually solving the problem it's trying to address. >> all right. well, i mean, it remains to be seen how much of the problem it all resolved, but certainly it does score political points because it fulfills somewhat of a campaign promise, or at least the appearance of it. but we'll discuss that another time. i want to ask you, though, the pause that we're hearing now, right, with mexico and canada and the tariffs, of course, it could all start up again. they're giving it a 30 day pause. but if it remains like

this or doesn't ever happen, does that mean our prices for those goods from those countries will stay the same? or do you think just the threat of it or the uncertainty could increase prices anyway? >> yeah. so it's really important you mention uncertainty because that is the part of this which you can't roll back. so if you think if you're a firm that has a pretty complicated supply chain, as for example, most us auto manufacturers do, products are typically sent to canada and mexico to produce a single car. then the whole economic proposition becomes much more uncertain, because you don't know if at any time the government is going to chaotically just introduce 25% tariffs on both of those countries. so it's not necessarily that it will raise prices in the long term. but for this, we might anticipate something where growth is slowed a little as investment in canada, mexico, but also importantly the united states, these are all one part of a supply chain is starting to reduce as firms realize the outlook. and the future isn't as certain as they once thought it was. because of this kind of chaos in the policymaking sphere. >> okay. and of course, no deal

has been reached with china yet. we're watching that closely. but if the 10% tariffs on chinese goods do kick in at midnight, what can we expect? higher prices on? >> yeah. so in the state of california, for example, china accounts for over a quarter of everything that we import. and that includes electronic goods. so if you're thinking about laptops, iphones, things like that, you can expect to see a price increase, probably close to 10%. economists typically think pretty often tariffs are passed through onto the consumers rather than the countries that pay the tariffs. as trump says, china is going to pay the tariffs. it's probably going to be consumers here in california and across the country. and then we're also pretty uniquely exposed to retaliatory tariffs as well from china. so during the first trade war, for example, there one of our biggest industries, almonds or not one of our biggest industries, but we have a lot of agricultural industries that could be subjected to tariffs. so it'll probably be higher prices. and our exporters actually paying the price here. it's really, again, not a great tool to achieve kind of the goal that it sets out to.

>> right, right. and of course for example if you're nike or if you're coca-cola and you look to the chinese market and go, oh, i want to sell to 1.7 billion people, and then suddenly your items are going to cost more to them so they buy less. that's not great for those companies. so then my question is who wins in a tariff war, right. is it a zero sum game, this global trade thing or not? >> so this is the ironic part of this. economists typically consider trade wars a lose lose. so both parties end up losing. one of the important features of trade is that because of different comparative advantages, countries might be able to do one thing better than another country if they engage in trade, that's actually a win win. so whenever you reverse that, it's actually incomes are lower, prices are potentially higher. people are getting less of the goods that they want that aren't easily made in a particular country. so trade wars generally should be avoided because we know it has these negative effects for everybody involved. >> all right. i want to talk about the stock market, which of course all the indices fell today, and global markets as well. for the average investor, building a nest egg for

retirement, what should they do? a lot of people are panic like should they sell. should they invest overseas. what do you suggest? >> yeah. so one do not sell. generally this is a long term proposition. and the stock market you know as we saw today went down. and then it came back up. so you really shouldn't be engaging in what's called market timing. trying to get out of the market when it's high and then buy back in when it's low. you should really prioritize on when you're trying to actually use that retirement and have more kind of bonds as you're relying more on quote unquote fixed income. and you need you need that steady flow of cash. uh- the one thing i would say you should not do is invest in cryptocurrencies or bitcoin, which is advocated for a lot. now, given the volatility, you might as well go to the casino and have a good time if you want to invest in that. >> we have 20s. last thing, if you were still on the council right now, how would you advise the president. >> to one not do the tariffs? certainly. but if they're committed to doing the tariffs, do something that they did closer in the first term to give them credit, they did do kind of a more strategic, industry

focused approach on chinese industries that they believe were dumping goods into the united states. >> ryan cummings with the stanford institute for economic policy, thank you so much. >> thank you. >> coming up, a warning from organizers behind the bay bridge light project as we get closer

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sweet july. because of unspecified safety concerns, the wife of warriors superstar steph curry shared on her instagram that the last day of the business will be february 9th. sweet july shared home goods, books and other items from black owned and locally owned businesses. it opened in 2021. burglars targeted the store in 2022, making off with several items and causing a temporary weekend closure. a hearing is taking place right now to address concerns around the closure of a safeway. the store is located in san francisco's fillmore district and is scheduled to close on friday. a private developer at align real estate wants to turn it into market rate housing, which has

sparked controversy with local politicians and san franciscans alike. supervisor dean preston reportedly wants to see it turned into affordable housing. all employees will be reassigned to other safeway locations in the san francisco area. a warning about the bay bridge lights don't fall for that facebook event listing that says the lights are turning back on next month. they're actually not. organizers of the bay bridge lights project and illuminate founder ben davis tells sfist he's not sure where the march 7th date is actually coming from. he says the bay bridge is not lighting up on that day. illuminate has requested the social media post be taken down several times so far, no reply. at last check, at least 57 people are going in. over 700 people are interested in the facebook event. the city of san francisco has a new poet laureate, and she is the first chinese american to hold the role. this is video of yesterday's inauguration ceremony for 77 year old jenny lim. she was chosen by former

mayor london breed back in september at the recommendation of a committee. lim performed some of her work at the san francisco public library, along with some youth poets and past laureates. >> we know we can do what i can never do. they cannot love because they not like us. they not like us. we improvise. we cool. we're greater than the sum of our parts. we bury our ancestral bones, our shadows, our baggage. we cast our fate to far flung gods. >> lim received a certificate of honor acknowledging the big things she's done for arts in the city. coming up, we're looking at safety preparations ahead

the temporary installation of a 50 foot naked woman is being put on hold out of concerns that the weight could damage granite tiles in the plaza. the statue reportedly weighs 32,000 pounds. there was an event in an unveiling ceremony scheduled for this thursday that was supposed to have dj performances with a bar and food trucks. that's also postponed. the art production agency that's planning an event called r evolution emphasized the statue's installation is not canceled. san francisco police are working to ensure merchants in chinatown feel safe during lunar new year celebrations these next two weeks. chief bill scott was out there with community leaders on sunday. they discussed security, scam prevention and coordination with officers who patrol the area. chase center was also booming yesterday with the sound of

taiko drums celebrating the year of the snake. the warriors hosted a lunar new year celebration to wish the community health, luck and prosperity. there were cultural performances, including traditional lion and dragon dances. people were also treated to culinary delights and other activities. we are counting down to the 2025 chinese new year parade. the big event is now just 12 days away on saturday, february 15th, and you can watch it live right here and everywhere you stream abc7. dan, ashley and i are excited to co-host it with david lui and diane lim joining us. we better see you either out on the parade route or joining us live on tv or on streaming. thanks for joining us. world news tonight with david muir starts now. i'll see you back tonight, the breaking news as we come on the air involving president trump's trade war with canada and mexico. after two phone calls with canada's prime minister, justin trudeau, what president trump has now just