silicon valley is bouncing back. how the tech hotspot is rebuilding from the recession. in today's cover story, investigating standard and poors. why the government is placing blame on the agency years after the financial crisis. market milestone - the stocks traders think you should buy as the dow once again crosses the 14,000 mark. ways people in the futures market are preparing for the possibilty of another summer drought. plus, from boom to bust: the trouble with dollar stores. first business starts now. you're watching first business: financial news, analysis, and today's investment ideas. good morning. it's wednesday, february 6th. i'm angela miles. in today's first look: a green day rocks the market. the dow lurched forward 99 points yesterday. the nasdaq

added 41 and the s&p was up by 15 points. gold gained 11 dollars while oil fell. profits slipped at disney, but traders shrugged it off last night. the stock initially edged up on earnings after posting stong numbers from its theme parks and cable channels. it's game on for zynga! the stock climbed nearly 6% last night in heavy trading volume. earnings and revenue came in much better than wall street expected. and a new report says hewlett- packard's board is considering breaking up the company. here for a look at the market, matt shapiro, president of mws capital. good morning matt. it wasn't too long ago you were on the show, and you were talking about the s&p 500 going to 1600. that doesn't seem so out of the picture now. are you sticking with that? > > absolutely. the

underpinnings of the market, and i think what 2013 is going to become known for, is a shift in embracing again equities after years of such high anxiety. i have come across a chart the shows how high the market can go after these extreme periods where there has been a rush into fixed income, and i think we are kind of unwinding that. that is one of the big underpinnings, along with, of course, a good economic recovery and good corporate earnings. > what do you think about a recent call someone made saying that the s&p could go to 1700 this year. is it possible? > > i would hope so. but that is going to be tough. i am looking at the 1600 level. but remember the '80s and '90s, when the s&p 500 was 100. then it went to 300, then it went, of course, to 1500 in 2000. but think about it, 12 years later, 13 years later, the economy is producing so much more on gdp and dollar-wise, but the s&p is just finally getting to those

levels of 2000. > moving over to the dow, what should investors be doing there? > > i think investors are really embracing the dow and these big blue-chip companies. it has been a great performer so far this year. the dividends that these big blue chips pay are still very attractive. and for the people moving into stocks, that big dividend kind of helps. > matt, i can't let you take off without a look at some names and some stocks that you would want to buy. what is on your list? > > stick to the eternal brands, and i think that is the story of the market. your stocks like 3m, united technologies, ibm, all those stocks are going to do well. but don't forget, of course, your utilities, and those fast-growing companies. one i like to talk about his fastenal. i talked about that a couple months ago. thanks for your help. that is matt shapiro, president of mws capital. the justice deparment's effort to uncover how mortgage risk was misrepresented just before

the housing bubble burst is going after one of the firms that evaluates risk - standard and poors. our cover story takes a look at the government's case and where it may lead. u.s. attorney general eric holder says the case goes to the very heart of the recent financial crisis. in a civil lawsuit, he accuses standard and poor's ratings services and its parent company mcgraw hill of downplaying and disregarding the true extent of subprime mortgage risk so large investment banks could sell them to unsuspecting buyers. "s&p misled investors, including many federally-insured financial institutions, causing them to lose billions of dollars." s&p calls the lawsuit "meritless," adding, "claims that we deliberately kept ratings high when we knew they should be lower are simply not true." attorney hugh totten thinks the government's efforts are misguided. "the ratings companies are not

the primary sellers of these collateralized debt obligations. these guys just rated these things." s&p ratings are considered reliable opinions in a field where the number of competitors is limited. yet s&p says its ratings weren't much different from theirs. but the justice department alleges that s&p's had conflicts of interest. "i think the government has a whistle-blower. it has to have someone in the wings willing to come forward to say that he told his superiors that he was going to commit fraud and they went along with it. without that, i don't think this lawsuit succeeds." there may be one whistle-blower or more. in announcing the lawsuit, attorney general holder says analysts within s&p raised concerns but were ignored, while losses investigators say they've traced to s&p total more than $5

billion. s&p says 20/20 hindsight is not basis to take legal action against the good-faith opinion of professionals. settlement talks reportedly broke down after the government sought more than a billion dollars to prevent it from pursuing its case in court. ceos from goldman sachs, motorola, yahoo and other u.s. corporations are voicing their opinons about immigration to president obama. the president welcomed the business leaders to the white house tuesday. he is pushing his "pathway to citizenship" plan for illegal immigrants already living in america. many republicans oppose the idea. the president believes a new immigration system benefits the broader economy. meanwhile on capitol hill, the mayor of san antonio, texes, julian castro, told a house committee yesterday he supports the pathway to citizenship. he also addressed the guest worker program some lawmakers want. "that may be one way to do it. however, in terms of the 11 million folks who are here, certainly putting them on a path to citizenship, ensuring that after they pay taxes, they pay a fine, they learn english, they get to the back of the

line, that's the best option." castro calls the country's immigration system "broken," but adds that congress is on the cusp of making progress. president obama is seeking short-term solutions to fix the country's debt problems. the president has asked congress to decide on short-term spending cuts in lieu of a bigger package of cuts and reforms. lawmakers face a march 1st deadline to avoid across-the- board spending cuts known as sequestration. president obama remarked yesterday that the cuts would threaten economic recovery, and noted he is "looking for a small package of spending cuts and tax revenue increases as a short-term stop- gap." senate minority leader mitch mcconnell responded, saying the president needs to lay out significant spending reforms. the high-tech town of silicon valley is making a strong rebound from the recession. a new report shows jobs, incomes and ipos all increased last year. 92,000 jobs were created. that's about what was happening during the dot.com frenzy. 46,000 new businesses opened. 12,000 went bust. however, while the middle class grew stronger, other areas did not. the study points out that

households earning less than $35,000 a year struggled to keep up with higher prices in the bay area. struggling dell announces a deal to take itself private with a $24.4-billion leveraged buyout. the leader of the financing group is founder michael dell and the deal includes a $2 billion loan from microsoft. shareholders will get $13.65 a share in cash, representing a 25% premium on the company's closing share price of $10.88 on january 11th. that was the last day of trading before rumors began to swirl about a possible buyout of the company. the pc-maker's stock has taken a beating as the industry shifts away from pc's to smaller devices such as tablets and phones. the hope is the company can modernize more easily and quickly, without the intense scrutiny of wall street. dollar stores, retailers that thrived during the great recession, are now hurting. sales growth has slowed, and

some analysts say the market may be saturated. there are three major chains battling for the cash-strapped consumer: dollar tree, family dollar and dollar general. each chain is planning to add hundreds of stores in the coming year. wal- mart is also trying to woo back cusotmers it lost to dollar stores during the recession. a chicken scare in china led to disappointing earnings at yum! brands. shares fell yesterday after yum! released disappointing earnings news. kfc, which is owned by yum!, saw a dramatic drop in its china sales following news of a chemical residue found in the chain's chicken supply. yum! revised its full-year outlook, stating that it expects sales to shrink. meanwhile, bp says oil production has fallen, while costs are up. that means profits are down, but the company managed to beat wall street expectations. and, a turn-around for zynga. the online gaming site posted a profit in the 4th quarter, topping wall street's expectations. shares popped 5% in after-hours trading.

the ftc corrects its statement about herbalife: the agency now says language about a pending law enforcement investigation into herbalife is incorrect, saying that it should have cited a foreign government agency. herbalife stock had a wild ride on that erroneous news monday, dropping more than 12% before closing with a slight gain for the day. yesterday was a much milder. the stock rallied 21 cents. a billion dollars. it's the amount of federal student loans that u.s. bororrowers are defaulting on. and because of those defaults, schools are suing former students over non- payment. bloomberg news took a look at court records and found that yale, the university of pennsylvania and george washington university have all taken former students to court over non-payment of loans, specifically perkins loans. those are federal loans earmarked for the poor. president obama is looking for a few good techies. round two of the presidential innovation fellows program has just been announced. its goal is to use innovation techniques to tackle national issues. the fellows are assigned to work on a variety of sophisticated

projects. in the first round of this program, 600 people applied in the first 24 hours. the application process is available at whitehouse.gov. united is applauding a record performance in january. it's reporting january 2013 was the best month for its operations in more than a decade. on average, nearly 80% of its international and domestic flights were on time. it comes following a challenging year for the airline, when computer glitches caused delays for thousands. the airline also lost customers. united execs say much of the problem stemmed from growing pains of merging with continental. the new blackberriess are making a strong connection with consumers in canada and britain. bloomberg news reports record orders are coming in for blackberry z-10s at canadian wireless carrier bce. and the smartphone sold out in less than half an hour at a warehouse outlet in britain. the blackberry goes on sale in the u.s. in march. blackberry now trades under bbry. the stock shot up a dollar yesterday.

meanwhile, it's a coin toss in canada. the government is phasing out the penny because it's too expensive to make as the price of metal rises. the final canadian penny rolled out of production this week. the move is expected to save taxpayers in canada $11 million a year. in the u.s., it now costs 2.41 cents to create a penny. still to come, the power of instinct. how to use what you already know to get ahead of the game. that's later. but first, missed signals: the information that could protect you from getting hacked. we're talking to a pro from google, next.

7,000 high-school students drop out every school day. let's catch them before it's too late. to start helping students in your community, visit boostup.org. an elaborate credit card scheme has been taken down by the justice department. authorities have arrested 13 people suspected of organizing an international credit scam. it's one of the largest credit fraud cases ever tackled by the department of justice. suspects stole over $200 million by creating fake businesses and securing credit lines. suspects charged millions of dollars in luxury cars and gold. the justice department says the scam went on for a decade, reaching 28 states and 8 countries.

you may be on a cyber-criminal's hit list, but there are ways to tell before your critical information is ripped off. daniel sieberg of google joins us this morning. good morning to you daniel. and what are some tip-offs that someone is about to hack you? > > the motivation of cyber- criminals or hackers can vary wildly. they may actually know nothing about you personally but simply be casting a wide net looking for anybody who will fall victim to their scam. they could be sending out e- mails in bulk that look like they are from your bank but they're not, hoping that somebody will click on them. it could be that they are trying to actually take over your computer to use its power to attack some other website somewhere. so, the most important thing to think about is that you do have the ability to improve your own internet security, your own safety online. and it really just takes 5 to 10 minutes. > give us some tangible ways. what can someone do? > > these days people are aware that they need to have a strong

password, but it really isn't enough to just do that. for example, you need to think about having unique and different passwords for each of your different internet, e-mail accounts, or online banking services. that way, if somebody does somehow get ahold of your password, they don't have access to everything. > in most of these cases, does it come down to the password? is that the key? > > it can be a combination of things, because the sort of bad elements and hackers out there are not just trying to crack your password and get into your account that way, they can just send out bulk e-mails, mass emails that come into your account if they've hijacked somebody else's e-mail, for example. you click on a link, it takes you to a site that looks somewhat familiar but maybe is not quite right in some way. even by going to that site they may have gotten some information from you. of course, if you pass along anything sensitive or personal, then they've got that. so if you see something come into your inbox that doesn't seem quite right, there is a good chance that it isn't. you could verify it through a number of ways: call your bank, talk to your friend or family member if it's come

from them. you may be doing them a favor by letting them know that this came in. > thank you for empowering us today. that is daniel sieberg of google. have a good day. > > thanks, you too. still ahead, are instincts the key to success? the discussion next, with bill moller.

the mind is an amazing computer. actually it's helping you when

you don't even realize it. for example, you're facing a difficult challenge, maybe in the office. you can't seem to make the call, but your mind is trying to guide you. it's speaking to you in that little whispery voice, suggesting what you should do. going with your gut, it's sometimes called, or simply "instinct." there's an amazing book about to come out. it's called the power of instinct written by brian brawdy. he is a former police officer, police detective from new york state, and a survivalist - you love the wilderness. who has been studying this - because i know malcolm gladwell has written about it in a fascinating way - who is studying this strange idea of how our mind works in this sort of mystical way? > > believe it or not bill, the study of neuroscience, which is where this originated from, is just blowing up now. the amount of research and dollars that go into describing what the human being has known its entire life. when you think about it,

whether we walked off the savannas of africa or out of the garden of eden, we have always followed that little voice that goes, "over here, over here." that's the power of instinct. > but we often don't know we're listening to that voice. the idea is, how do you get that voice to be more recognizable? to have it speak with a little more authority? > > great question. i called them mind-ups. just like pushups or sit-ups or pull-ups to build our body, we do mind-ups. and a mind-up would be, when you are thinking about the power of instinct, to listen to that voice every so often. we get all caught up in our intellect - "oh, i can think this through." but there might at times be a fork in the road where you go, "i'm thinking this way, but what is my instinct telling me? what is my small voice, my bold little whisper telling me?" > we need to just listen to it more or be more consciously aware of it talking to us. > > i would say, just like if you were to lift weights - you ever see someone who's got really great biceps, and they have no triceps? i'd like the balanced approach. i like listening to your instinct, and

also using your intellect. get it a little more balanced, so it's not all up here, but it's a blend of your mind in your gut. > it's hard to trust that instinct, because it's not 100% right. > > no. it is not. if not 100% right at all. but what we can do is when we let the intellect kind of ride it a little bit, and then let your instinct go, so that the two balance each other out, you will find that you make some really great informed decisions. and the more you practice it - as you know - the more you practice it, the more it grows. you can't achieve what you have as a reporter without at times - could you? - listening to that little whisper that said to you, "producer is telling me one thing, but i have a feeling i should go in this direction." and look at what it has afforded you today. > the producer is telling me right now i need to wrap up, so brian brawdy, thank you so much. > > thank you my friend, very much so. thank you bill. still ahead, is another drought on the horizon? a trader with his eyes on the skies is next in chart talk.

ehicle. when i came here, i... i couldn't move. [male announce david was broadsided on the highway. they weren't very hopeful at the time that he would survive at all.. [male announce an ied wounded mike in afghanistan. i don't remember all of the blast... was over 500 pounds of explosives. [male announce their physical injuries have healed. the traumatic brain injuries - tbis - haven't.

the way i describe it is you're just afraid. am i going to start forgetting things? [male announce tbi is as serious as any battlefield injury. you're just not the guy you used to be. [male announce thankfully va has made important advancements in tbi seeing it, treating it, understanding it. and they're here to help veterans affected by it. i can see that what we're doing here at the polytrauma unit is to move from survivability to thrive-ability. [male announce if you think you or a veteran you know has sustained a brain injury, get screened.

kevin craney of rjo futures is here for chart talk. good morning, kevin. how are commodity traders preparing for crop trades this spring? do they expect another drought like we had last summer? > > it is certainly of particular concern. when we look at where the drought monitor shows right now, we haven't had a lot of snowfall during the winter, so it is

really going to take a lot of rain coming in through the spring season to bring the water table levels up. > who were the winners in the market last year kevin? > > i think the real winners were, one, from a speculative standpoint, the ones who were in the options market early on in the season. we had a big planting number last year, and for all intents and purposes, people thought, "hey, we are going to have a lot of corn." but what happened, mother nature worked her magic, it was a drought year, and we really fell behind. so those people who got ahead of the curve early, who were out there buying options and a little more bullish early on were the real winners in the market last year. > thank you for that update kevin. > > thank you. that's a wrap for now. coming up tomorrow in movies and money, why hollywood should never underestimate the financial power for teenaged girls. from all of us at first business, thank you for watching. have a wonderful wednesday.